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1  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: 10% Monthly Returns trading BTC at [Sticky Please] on: January 24, 2013, 12:07:08 AM
This is a so called martingale trading system which creates the illusion to be "working" for some time before losing all equity in one big trade :-)

Basically its betting 0.01 in a random direction (the smallest position size possible on a real ECN platform is 0.1. 0.01 is only offered by market makers who hedge the positions against the bets of other trader). In case of a losing trade it bets 0.02 lots (or 2 x 0.01 to cover its workings), 0.04 lots etc... when a position wins the system restarts from 0.01.

Basically the chance of winning the n-th trade is

Trade Number ----- Chance of winning ------ Cumulated lotsize 0.5
1                            0.5                             0.01
2                            0.75                            0.02
3                            0.875                          0.04
4                            0.9375                        0.08

You can compare this strategy with a series of coin tosses where you win if you come up "Heads" a single time in a series. But here is the catch: For every round you have to double your initial bet. Would you really want to play this game? Only if you had infinite funds! :-)

Ofc its a zero sum game.

The pitfall in systems like these is that for a long time the equity curve looks like a safe, slow and steady winner. But in the unlikely event of the system failing it will lose all invested funds in a single trade. So the system quickly "overtrades" and therefore invests much more on a single outcome of a trade than any real world investor would.

This is also why these guys invest 0.01 (which is nothing) with an account size of 5000 :-) They are aware of the crazy risk and want to be sure to have lots of buffer cash to lose to prevent virtual margin calls :-)

If you want to find out more about this type of system please feel free to check wikipedia [1]

Ofc the system-writer will argue to have a "working" system but in this case he or she would not hang out in a forum like this but would make millions instead. Just 10% per month with 10.000 starting capital would make yourself a millionaire in a little bit more than 4 years. Would you really discuss such a thing in public if you had it? Rarely! :-))

[1] =
2  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Possible scam at MtGox: Withdrawals are not processed on: July 23, 2012, 01:07:44 PM

There is in the contrary nothing fraudulent here.


The account is already verified. On your website it is NOT stated that I would need verification before withdrawal. Also your support keeps sending me standard messages that never answer my questions. Why don't you just tell me straight out what causes the delay? Why do you set the priority of my issue to "high" just after my complaint here? I still did not receive any meaningful answer from you guys so I must simply believe that you are running a fraudulent operation OR do not care about your customers at all.

Both will keep me away from now on! High workload is no excuse for this. You keep sending me this standard bullsh* messages. Why not waste 2 seconds more writing "It will be processed after xyz".

I will warn everybody of depositing high amounts of money on your website!
3  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Possible scam at MtGox: Withdrawals are not processed on: July 21, 2012, 04:17:47 PM
Have you created a support ticket?
I've withdrawn and deposited from Dwolla a number of times and at least half a dozen times the transfers has gone missing for a number of reasons and it wasn't until after I created a support ticket that the matter was resolved in short order.
Just a though.

Yes please check my first post to see the helpful discussion I had with support.
4  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Possible scam at MtGox: Withdrawals are not processed on: July 21, 2012, 03:50:25 PM
For all SEPA traffic via Mt Gox you are required to be fully verified (unless things have changed over the last couple of days)  Undecided
So once they get your uploaded documents sorted you can probably expect them to start processing but not before then.
However I agree that they could do way better than pasting a standard answer.

First, this is nowhere stated on the MtGox website. Also they have my verification documents for almost 3 weeks now so I hardly believe that this is the true limiting factor here.

I still believe that their website is fraudulent or that they simply do not care much about their customers. Instead of just pasting the standard-answer they could have been way more specific about the true nature of the problem.

In any case this is simply not a place where I would want my money to be.
5  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Possible scam at MtGox: Withdrawals are not processed on: July 21, 2012, 01:00:15 PM
Is your account verified by them? Uploading your docs doesn't make your account verified automatically unfortunately. You'll have to wait till you receive that confirmation email from them.

No, I only uploaded the documents so far. But I am not required to verify because you only need that when you want to withdraw larger sums. Just look at their answers they simply do not care about the problem at all, they just keep pasting their standard answer.
6  Economy / Scam Accusations / Possible scam at MtGox: Withdrawals are not processed on: July 21, 2012, 12:30:29 PM
Dear all,

I requested 2 withdrawals with MtGox on 05.07.2012 and 06.07.2012 totalling almost 1500 EUR. MtGox decided to avoid paying me and refuses to give a detailed explanation about what is going on.

“2012/07/05 08:55:21 Withdraw Status: confirmed 1,000.00000 € 452.15020 € Withdraw to account DEUTSCHE POSTBANK AG”

“2012/07/06 09:28:49 Withdraw Status: confirmed 459.58000 € 0.00206 € Withdraw to account DEUTSCHE POSTBANK AG”

(I have also taken a screenshot that documents my withdrawals, which you can find here:

According to their website, the whole withdrawal process can take up to 5 working days. I have double checked my bank info and I am 100% sure that incorrect information are not the cause of the delay. I have also verified my account with them, even though I have never been asked to do so. Screenshot:

Here is the message history with support. As you can see I am not given any serious reason for the delay, they just keep using their standard-answer which is an unbearable situation for me. Even though the chances of getting my money are very low now, I have still reported them with the Japanese chamber of commerce and their local police for fraud.

If you want to review my whole discussion with their "support" please kindly check these Screenshots:

As you see they are not making any serious efforts in helping me. Since almost 3 weeks have passed now, I gave up on getting my money back and try to warn as many people about MtGox as I can.

I strongly believe that MtGox is a highly fraudulent operation.

I would recommend to never put serious amounts of money there, as I did :-((
7  Local / Deutsch (German) / Re: - Lottery: 160% / 200% mit Sofort-Gewinnauszahlung! on: June 27, 2012, 02:20:12 PM
Hm... 41 aus 112 ist zwar "pech" aber nicht so unwahrscheinlich, dass es Betrug sein muss. Imho sind 112 Spiele zu wenig um eine tatsächliche Quote feststellen zu können... aber das ganze ist schon sehr interessant..

Das ist keine subjektive Diskussion, bei es nach Gefühl geht. 112 reicht völlig aus Smiley Die Wahrscheinlichkeit kann sehr genau berechnet werden. Sie liegt bei exakt 0,6%, dass alles mit rechten Dingen zu geht (p(gewinn) = 0.5). Die Anzahl der Versuche wurde hier bereits berücksichtigt.
8  Economy / Gambling / looks like fraud to me on: June 27, 2012, 02:04:30 PM ist mit most likely fraud.

I just conducted 112 games with a bet of 0.1 BTC each. I won 41 games. The likelihood, that the true win rate equals 50% is just 0,6%!

The calculation from my statistics tool:

Exact binomial test

data:  41 and 112
number of successes = 41, number of trials = 112, p-value = 0.00589
alternative hypothesis: true probability of success is not equal to 0.5
95 percent confidence interval:
 0.2770590 0.4623553
sample estimates:
probability of success  0.3660714

In plain english: The likelihood to win just 41 times out of 112 tries with a postulated win rate of 50% is just 0.00589 or 0,6%! By 99.4% the true likelihood is something completely different. I only observed a win rate of 37% instead of 50% with a very significant sample count.

-> Stay away, the indication of fraud is very strong in my opinion.
9  Local / Deutsch (German) / Betrug? Besser Finger weg! on: June 27, 2012, 01:51:41 PM ist mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit Betrug.

Ich habe soeben 112 Spiele mit je 0,1 BTC Einsatz gemacht und davon 41 Spiele gewonnen. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die wahre "Trefferquote" wirklich 50% beträgt, liegt somit bei lächerlichen 0,6% !

Die Rechnung aus dem Statistikprogramm:

Exact binomial test

data:  41 and 112
number of successes = 41, number of trials = 112, p-value = 0.00589
alternative hypothesis: true probability of success is not equal to 0.5
95 percent confidence interval:
 0.2770590 0.4623553
sample estimates:
probability of success  0.3660714

Klartext: Die Wahrscheinlichkeit von 112 Versuchen 41 mal zu gewinnen bei einer Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von angegebenen 50% liegt bei 0.00589 oder 0,6%! Es ist also zu 99,4% eine andere Wahrscheinlichkeit, die dem System zugrunde liegt, was für Betrug spricht. Gemessen wurde eine tatsächliche Trefferquote von lediglich 36,6% anstelle von 50%!

Das Ganze ist somit ein sehr starkes Indiz für gewerbsmäßigen Betrug. Ich empfehle, die IP zu notieren ( / und ggf. Strafanzeige zu erstatten, falls Ihr euch geschädigt fühlt.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: What I'd do now on: October 17, 2011, 10:10:05 AM
My plan seems to work out perfectly. Doubled my BTC from the first post on. Please check the chart on Post #1 again Wink
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Effect of scams, hacks and other scandals on price on: October 09, 2011, 12:22:35 AM
Quote from: ineededausername
Of course the fundamentals have not changed... bitcoin retains its advantages.  But when hackers sell tons of stolen bitcoins on mtgox what would that do to the price?

This transaction has been reversed. Even if it would have not: The price would have skyrocketed up again because many lower orders would have been filled. It would have been a one time effect. This has nothing to do with the general trust of people in bitcoin overall. If it was just hack related then people would just have moved to a different marketplace and invested there (= make prices go up). Thats obviously not the case. The price is dropping because people tend to overreact - also alot of early adopters seriously consider pulling the plug before their digital fortune is gone Wink
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Effect of scams, hacks and other scandals on price on: October 09, 2011, 12:15:28 AM
How much of the decrease from $30 is due to scams, hacks, etc.?  It strikes me that most of the price decreases are because of these, not people losing faith in bitcoin's concept itself.

Would you refrain from buying a commodity... say gold from which you believe that it will be worth much more tomorrow just because a bank in your area has recently been robbed? I guess not Smiley Its just a depressive phase which will end sooner or later. The "fundamentals" of the project have not changed at all Smiley
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: What I'd do now on: October 08, 2011, 06:34:04 PM
I have faith in bitcoins. As freedom currency. Price matters less. Not least, less. I, like many others, was too bullish to see that it can go down. Actually I was hoping someone else would dump 50,000 in an older post. I know that it could be beneficial.

Under the assumption that your screenshot is genuine, I would seriously consider pulling the plug (= Selling) now ;-)

Why? Well did you ever consider that Mt. Gox is most likely virtually out of reach for the legal system in your country? Should gox get hacked again, or just decide to refuse to pay you back, or whatever you'll pretty much end up with nothing.

This is by far the biggest threat to your account balance. Not daily bitcoin price fluctuations :-) However this large balance ofc enables you to abuse the system and make "free money" by manipulation Wink Its like sitting on a poker table where you are the chipleader... Tongue
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: What I'd do now on: October 07, 2011, 10:42:30 PM
The time will come soon when it's smart to jump back in. ...

Correct. And this thread is exactly about numerically expressing when :-)
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: What I'd do now on: October 07, 2011, 09:16:57 PM
So what your saying is that btc will pretty much never rise back up above 7-8 for a very long time?

No, not at all. I am saying that I would use the trend following method described in first post as a trend indicator. As long as the purple line is lower than the brown line the downtrend is still active. The idea is to avoid losing money by selling BTC now and getting back on board when the trend has changed (purple line > brown line). The trend has only changed a single time so far.... which means that btc has so far been a highly trending currency. This fact can be exploited by conducting a trend following strategy like the one I suggested.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: What I'd do now on: October 07, 2011, 06:56:03 PM
What I find interesting is the correlation between the timing of the dips and the recent security breaches of exchanges that occurred prior do aid dips.

Perhaps pure coincidence, however the "liquidating of the found Bitcoins" could of played a role.

pretty sure it is related.. same thing happened around the mybitcoin event..

I believe that this is not an issue here.

I believe the fundamental issue with investing in general is that people just tend to focus on the rear-view mirror.

When they see nothing but losses they decide that the considered market is a terrible place to be and leave/sell. When depression is at its peak, its time to get back on the train - a skill that needs the investor to emotionally detach himself from the public opinion - a very rare skill and the reason why 95% of all traders fail.

A way to mechanically do this was described above. Ofc its pure speculation but maybe better than just sitting it out. Time will tell Wink
17  Economy / Speculation / What I'd do now on: October 07, 2011, 06:39:35 PM
Look at the 2 moving averages (28 EMA, 7 EMA) in this chart:

Source Address: (<- This is updated automatically so it can easily be followed)

When the faster moving average (purple) crosses the slower EMA (brown) from below this indicates an uptrend in technical trading (and vice versa). As you can see in the chart, we have been in a very active downtrend (purple < brown) for more than 4 month now, which has not been broken a single time.

In order to prevent losing more money I personally sold all my BTC at 5 USD and now wait until the market reverses (purple line > brown line). At the moment we are in a very depressive phase which started after the burst of the bubble. Fundamentally, nothing has changed for bitcoin, so there is no reason that It cannot go to old highs again. Since people are depressed now the time to get back in should come soon.

What do you think about this approach? Its a standard trend following strategy from stock trading and since bitcoin has been highly trending so far I think it should become useful in this situation.
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Your prediction: Where will 09/09/11's low be? on: September 09, 2011, 03:00:57 PM
1.) 3.5$

2.) "the bottom" is 0 :-)
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market Doesn't Look to Hold Above $6.00 on: September 09, 2011, 07:20:51 AM

I believe we are testing a strong historical area of support. If it goes below 5.80 the market is in free fall to 3 and maybe even below that. From a technical standpoint we are clearly seeing a falling triangle formation.
20  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Open source trading bot? on: August 03, 2011, 12:19:31 PM
Hmm, no more comments to the trading bot at post #35? I was expecting a bit more feedback considering the strong interest of the people here Wink

I know it's a sensitive topic, but I can't seem to find a simple buy/sell bot...And I have very little exp with PHP. Would it be possible to alter the code to 'scalp' to make a profit with a fee based Mt. Gox account? Adding something to sell if price is greater than .06% of the buy price?

Just check the functions "buy" and "sell" in my source code. Its less than 10 lines for both Smiley It won't get any easier than that.
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