Thanks but all we have is historical data, and it appears that it's quite predictive. 
So within those parameters, there is a significant amount one can do to improve one's timing.
It's not just quite a guessing game.

So far ETH peaks in macro terms after BTC peaks, about a month later. 

I did go all in and it's working out fine so far. But huge lesson to all: no matter how good the prices are, never invest all of it. Always leave yourself some USDT, at least 10% probably 20%.
Because the market, yes even in a bull market, will ebb and flow. That means it goes up and then down.  Always. There are dips 2-3 times per month, whether in BTC or certainly altcoins.

The reason you want to always have some uninvested  USDT/BUSD is because of these dips.  Like yesterday and today's.   It's basically a 50% hit to many people's portfolios, wiping out months of gains in 48 hours.  BUT, and here is the big BUT: if you left yourself 15% of your money in USDT, you could have bought that dip.  And many of these alts have already gone back up considerably and while you'd still likely be negative (basically anyone who started investing in 2021 probably is let's be honest),  you'd be quite close to breaking even.  Others have no choice but to sit back at the mercy of the market and wait, perhaps an entire month, before they get  back to to break even.   Others will chase risky trades, to try to get out of the hole.

This sort of taking profits, and leaving some USDT on  hand at all times, and constantly expecting dips (check the charts, they always happen with regularity, even in bull markets) overall is the 100% the best strategy, with buy and hold the only other viable strategy to me.  With this incremental, defensive strategy, you minimize wild fluctuations in your portfolio. Very few  people prefer to see 50% gains in their portfolio in a week, only to see 50% losses the next.  Rather, don't try to hit homeruns.  Mostly singles and doubles really adds up.  And there will be no disastrous errors. The up and down swings in your portfolio will be less severe, and I think in the end, your profits  are better protected and your max profits, might even be more long-term than just trying to buy the bottom and sell the top.

TLDR; always leave 15-20% of your portfolio in USDT simply for the reason that dips happen at least twice per month. Being able to buy the dip allows you to get out of the hole quicker, is better for your emotions, and though there are too  many possibilities to quantify, I think over time your profits will be just as good.  The only other viable strategy in crypto is to just buy and hold.  It's alot less work.

Hi,  

BTC has a 4 year cycle. When it peaks, the next month or so ETH has run up  like crazy.  
What is the general consensus on when it's a good idea to ditch BTC and swap it into ETH?  And how much of your BTC do you swap to ETH? 100%?
I understand that when ETH is doing better against BTC you should swap, but it's not so easy in real-time when you do not know how the future is going to unfold.
So would appreciate your insights.

Also, is there a go-to place to discuss strategy, either on this board or somewhere else? I actually can't find a crypto strategy forum that isn't littered with nonsense.

Thank you!

Thanks guys, looks like we have all kinds of differing opinions.

I think I'm going to do a hybrid, I'll call it short-term DCA.

I plan to every week invest about 25% of my total principal.  I will be taking my best guess what the biggest dip of the week will be and buy then.
So after a month, I will be done entering the market.

It's like buying the mini-dip over the period of a month.  After a month, the new low is clearly higher than last month's low in this market.

I can't imagine BTC will be worth 180k by year's end but that's what I hope.  I would be happy if it did 100k.

Yes I tried to get in and register and everything, but I did not win the lottery. 

Question: what is the best way to know when Mina is listed on an exchange and ready for the public to buy?

It may not be $0.25 but still on the cheap. I firmly believe that the best strategy, above everything else, is to get in early.

Hi, normally I'm a fan of dollar cost averaging.  But I'm thinking of not really dollar cost averaging because the market is obviously a very bull market right now for BTC.

What do you think will be the best strategy to enter the bitcoin market today?

Pick the lowest dip I can find say, this week, and invest all my principle. Or, dollar cost average anyway....if so, over what time horizon? Surely not over the next year.  Maybe a week? A month?

I personally believe that the train has almost left the station, which is why I am wondering if it makes no sense to dollar cost average at this time.

Hi I am starting to think that launchpads are important. A very necessary gatekeeper and filter to separate the viable from the scams and to reduce risk for me.

Can someone rank them by average ROI for me?

I have

Polkadot (20x?—no idea but it seems to be the most admired)
Trustswap
Bibnance launchpad

Any other major players?

I just see Binance as that person who has to be in everything and every space.
They want to be the Walmart of crypto. I can’t argue with their success and hard work and ability to deliver but it seems almost unfair. They will be the Microsoft (during its windows heyday) of the crypto world.

Hi I am new to the kucoin trading bot.
I get the idea but need some advice. How do you pick a pair of coins as a good trade target?
Is it the ones that are the most volatile and also trending up over the last day or is it a week?
I understand that with this type of bot you want volatility and whether or not you believe in a coin is not as important.

Hi guys, please tell me my plan is terrible.
I have gathered that Mina and eco are two solid projects based on my research and general sentiment and also analyst opinion.

I have never participated in an ICO. I figure this is the best way to get in early.

How would I prepare for this ICO. I hear they sell out quickly. Can someone give me a checklist or gotchas that you wish you knew your first time?

Thanks

Hi,

New to the idea of a trading signals group.

https://altsignals.io/

This one gets good reviews, and it's $115 a month. Is it worth it, is there a free one that works just as well?

Is this a total scam (reviews suggest it is the real deal)

Thank you!

Wow thank you for all of the advice so far, I welcome it.

Having posted in the alt-coin forum here (I'm still pretty convinced that ETH at least will be around for a long time and is very safe for a cryptocurrency), I am getting mixed signals.
The alt-coin forum seems to think that bitcoin will not be the only winner, even long-term. There does not have to be one currency to rule them all, just like in the real fiat world.  Yes, the dollar is pretty dominant, but there are many others.

I wonder if this striking difference of opinion reflects personal experience or personalities (risk adverse people flock to the bitcoin forums, risk-tolerant types hang in the alt-coin forums)

Hi Norris, if I do this in April 2021 how much would you expect one to make by holding for say 3 months?
Just trying to get an idea of what the definition of quick and easy money is.
How many projects would I need to invest in in order to find a successful one?
I understand the idea is that the launchpad projects have already undergone extensive review for strong teams fundamentals value and code quality etc.
but is the success rate really much higher?

Hi, I have a high risk profile.   I think I can invest 100,000 US dollars over the next month. This is 75% of my savings, from my entire life.  It's a one-shot deal.   I accept that I could lose all my money and have no savings.  I am early middle-age.

I'd like a 10x return at least.   I do not believe I am an idiot, nor do I believe anyone can always pick winners.
20x would be even more awesome.
I am interested in about a year time horizon starting the clock from April 10,  2021.  

1. How would you invest my 100,000 and over what time horizon?  I'm thinking for alt-coins you have to get in near the ICO or within the first month to realize a 10x.  
2. How many alt-coins would you suggest I focus on?  For example, 10,000 each on 10 alt-coins?  or 5000 each on 20 alt-coins?  Or 1000 each on 100 alt-coins?  
3. Names of specific alt-coins where it's not too late to realize 10x gains if you are new to the market in April 2021?  I see some YouTube videos and charts, and it seems I am 3-4 months late to the game.  Had I just invested in January 2021 in those projects that I like, I would easily have had a 3-5x already.
4. Stepping back, am I too late already to the alt-coin market?  Should I just do  bitcoin which I view as low-risk?

thank you!

Hi there,

First, a little about me.  I am a first-time investor to crypto.  However, I have had a few stocks (Roth IRA stuff) and tech stocks and overall have made the average 8% return over about 8 years.  I now have 150,000 to scrape together.

Principles:  I have a high risk profile.  I am patient up to 10 years.  I could buy and hold.  I do believe this 2021 is a once in a lifetime year.  The gains next cycle will be much less in 4 years.
I do believe that earlier is always better.  Did I say I have a high risk profile?

I have a few specific questions and I know it's just your opinions.

1.  Starting today on April 10, 2021 if I invested 150k in bitcoin, how much do the gurus expect me to have in 1, 2, 5, and 10 years?  Like would any idiot who just invested today and didn't sell expect a 5x increase within the next 10 years?
2.  I would use dollar cost averaging, but over what time horizon?  Invest 150k over the next six months?  Or just invest it all today since we all know it's going up?
3.  I could withdraw the old retirement fund and get the initial investment up to 300k.  Would you go all in using that?  I would not have much of a backup plan for retirement if this is the case, but like I said I have a high risk profile.  I do believe this is once in a lifetime.
4. If I want to pursue some alt coins, and again, I have a high risk profile, what % mix would you recommend?  33% alt-coins and 66% bitcoin, or 50-50, etc? 


Thank you!!