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1  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Saudi Professional League 2023/2024 on: Today at 09:03:30 AM
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Al Ahli vs Al Hilal, this is one of the crucial game to watch when it concerns SPL matches. Al Hilal is unbeaten till this very moment, Jorge Fernando Pinheiro de Jesus who happens to be Al Hilal headcoach have succeeded in managing the team and ranking them first in status. Checking their prior history, Al Hilal have dominated the winning runs and Al Ahli have also proven to be formidable on home ground. They are capable of driving forces to draw tie when it comes to home games. So for gamblers to be on a more safer side, they should simply bet on both sides scoring.

But for what reason would you consider this game "crucial"?

SPL is over at this point when it comes to the title. Al-Hilal's defense won it. Al-Nassr is scoring a lot of goals although Al-Hilal has even done a better job there, but the defense made all the difference.

It's kind of funny that Al-Hilal has one of the most expensive players (Neymar) who doesn't play and yet they win the title easily whereas Al-Nassr has by far the best goal scorer and they have no chance whatsoever to win the title. Did those investments really pay off? Cheesy
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is the halving already priced in? on: Today at 08:19:08 AM
The only thing that continues to worry me in this entire "cycle" is the worsening situation with the global economy. With the way they're printing money while increasing the interest rates they are going against all their own strategies since this causes both inflation and recession at the same time.

That means people will liquidate more of their assets (that includes selling bitcoin) to make ends meet as prices soar and also they'll have less money to invest. In other words inflation + recession means more sell pressure + less demand.

Last but not least the Dedollarisation hasn't been done enough to decouple other countries' economies from the dollar and the US economy that has been a Ponzi scheme for decades is heading for the iceberg like Titanic...

This is an important realization and something that I have come across more often during those harder times in recent years.

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That means people will liquidate more of their assets (that includes selling bitcoin) to make ends meet as prices soar and also they'll have less money to invest. In other words inflation + recession means more sell pressure + less demand.

There could also be the misconception at play that higher interest rates may give some people more money on the money they already have, but some of them might underestimate the undermining effect of fiat devaluation compared to higher income they are making from interest. Turning $10 into $12 doesn't give 20% more purchasing power.

There is also a trailing effect of shrinking prices in the real estate industry. That's where liquidity gaps can emerge from valuation of properties and interest rate effects when it comes to refinancing long-term loans when fixed interest rate agreements come to an end.

There is a lot of turmoil going on and all this uncertainty probably more negatively impact the ability and tendency of people to buy BTC as you said. Even more so, some see themselves forced to liquidate assets in order to keep their heads above water.

But the total effects cannot easily be assessed as we now have so many big players enter the stage at the same time and I can imagine that companies like Blackrock will hoard most of their BTC, removing them from circulation for the long-term.

Halvings will probably continue to have some psychological effect on the market, but I deem your points more relevant and probably gain more relevance throughout the future. It probably means that the share and power of commercial investors in the market will decrease as their scope of action will shrink first with continued economic turmoil.
3  Economy / Economics / Re: considering the advantage of Fiats over Cryptocurrencies on: Today at 07:43:40 AM
Yeah as far as the transaction view is considered it's true. The governments will try to legalise crypto payments because of the increase in demand and usage of crypto with the passage of time.

There should be proper apps and platforms launched. The debit cards for crypto should be launched separately so that people can easily perform transactions using crypto currency. It will reduce the loos that occurs while converting crypto into fiat and the governments can charge a little less than what exchanges charge. Then it'll be beneficial for both governments as well as traders.

Governments will try to regulate crypto payments further. Legalization is not the big deal here. You can already transact with cryptocurrencies in most countries in the world without getting prosecuted. But the government can impose a plethora of rules on the users. For instance, they can oblige you to provide a full set of data about the origins of funds as soon as you want to leave the p2p or area or cash out some BTC for fiat. Even in a p2p setup there can be rules where you run into the requirement to provide the origin of funds eventually.

It is true that they can't stop decentralized networks from operating, but they can put lots of spokes in everyone's wheel who decide to use cryptocurrencies of any sort.

We have seen that with taxation of micro transactions. For example when you buy a coffee with BTC and in the meantime your BTC gained 10% in value, you'd be obliged to file taxes for a $3.30 transaction because you essentially paid just around $3.00.

Only a more liberal and em bracing framework would allow the technology to enfold full potential, to add technology layers and applications that emulate some of the advantages of centralized systems and then give people the full choice as to whether use decentralized currencies exactly as they are meant to be or, for instance, use a layer that allows for the reversal of transactions.
4  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Has BTC really become more attractive than gold? on: Today at 07:28:14 AM
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A perfect investment strategy: When investing, choose BTC because it can generate higher returns during an uptrend. When the crypto market enters a downtrend, converting assets to cash or Gold is the right decision as Gold is better suited for asset protection purposes.

I believe that many investment funds are also moving towards this approach to maximize returns for their clients when they add BTC or spot BTC ETFs to their portfolios. They may also have recognized the allure of BTC's superior price performance compared to all other assets in the traditional financial market.

I am wondering how you can explain your approach so easily when it comes to buying and selling BTC back and forth, switching between various asset classes and how you seem to be able to identify uptrends and downtrends without any problems? Wink

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...Gold is the right decision as Gold is better suited for asset protection purposes.

Maybe huge investment corporations or hedge funds are switching between asset classes all the time, but they have technology and algorithms and instruments in place that most people don't have at their disposal. But regarding the quote above, this is the logarithmic graph from before 2011 until now, displaying how many ounces of gold you need to buy BTC. When it goes up, BTC outperforms gold, when it goes down, gold outperforms BTC. Please keep in mind how the y-axis is structured and in a best case you visit the website and use the cursor to check out what the graph says. Seems that gold did not outperform BTC very much! Wink



It is important to understand what exactly the graph is telling you. The scale on the y-axis and the long-term trend clearly says that BTC was overhelmingly well performing.
5  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: April 10, 2024, 09:16:47 PM
For Arsenal to get a draw while playing at the Emirates Stadium is actually quite bad. Because they know that in the second leg when they play at their opponent's home ground, namely at the Allianz Arena stadium, it will be more difficult for Arsenal. because in the second leg Bayern will definitely fight more enthusiastically and with full motivation in front of their own audience. But if Bayern can progress further in the UCL, maybe that would be a good thing for Kane, who has only played this season at Bayern after a long time at Spurs.

In the Premier League, it seems that currently many are optimistic about Arsenal. I probably expected the same thing. But on the one hand, I think Liverpool and Man City also have the same opportunity. But it would be very bad if Arsenal failed again this season in the Premier League.
Just getting a draw when playing as the host is not a good result. but it's still better than losing. It's just that in the second leg Arsenal might indeed have more difficulties. But I believe in Mikel Arteta's squad, their motivation will not decrease just because they are playing at home to their opponent. You can see how Arsenal performed when they faced Manchester City at the Etihad stadium. They're still amazing, aren't they?
So I think playing at the Allianz Arena will not weaken Arsenal. It's just that Bayern might actually be more enthusiastic when playing in front of their own supporters. And that will make things even more difficult to predict.

And talking about the chances of winning the title this season in the Premier League, I don't think we can make a good conclusion yet. Because Arsenal and Liverpool currently also have the same number of points. And Manchester City is also only 1 point behind Liverpool and Arsenal. So I think every game at the end of this season can make rapid changes happen repeatedly.

By now getting a draw in their home stadium could be a very costly mistake for any of the top three teams. This is beyond doubt the one issue everyone has to avoid: not drop points at home.

I think that at least one of the teams would probably be able to win all the remaining games of the season. It is seven more games to go and I think that the final winner of the Premier League will at least get 18 points out of those 21 points. The fact that they are now pushing each other to the utmost limits will probably lead to a head to head to head race among the three and the smallest mistakes will cost two of them the title. It could even be the goal difference in the end, which would be quite dramatic if you think about it.
6  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: April 10, 2024, 08:35:11 PM
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And now PSG are turning things around quite quickly. Now the score has changed to 2-1. PSG managed to score 2 goals in 2 minutes. Namely in the 48th minute by Dembele and in the 50th minute by Vitor Ferreira. In the second half PSG seemed to be more aggressive and I think their playing pattern was a little different. It seemed like their coach had finished analyzing Barcelona's abilities in the first half. So now PSG can play with better preparation in the second half. But don't worry, the second half is still in the 61st minute and I don't think Barcelona will give up quickly either. Barcelona is now trying to equalize the score again.

It has already been equalized by PSG and I have to say I thought that PSG would be more dominant playing at home, but it seems that Barcelona is doing a good job there. They don't have quite as much ball possession as PSG, but the number of chances of both teams is about equal, which I think is quite a big deal as that already gives of what to expect in the second leg of this game between these two teams that I think nobody really know how far they can make it in the Champions League. But a draw would be an acceptable result for Barcelona as they are quite strong at home when there is something on the line.
7  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: April 10, 2024, 08:16:34 PM
I have to say Arsenal has a good eye. because Camavinga is a great player and also can be a very good asset for his team. He is such a player that can play in multiple positions. And at certain times it can help the team a lot as well. I think we have seen him play in almost all the positions in Real Madrid, to be honest. At this point, if the Real Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti comes down with illness, I guess Real Madrid is going to be in safe hands as Camavinga as their coach.

Anyway jokes aside, I think Arsenal will be able to make a great improvement of the squad they can actually get him. But I donít think Real Madrid is selling him.

I don't think Real Madrid excited with Arsenal's bid offer for Camavinga fees transfer above Ä110m, next season Luka Modric will leave real Madrid and leave the midfielder position and bad thing if acceptable Arsenal bid offer for selling Camavinga although the most highest transfer fees and Madrid get potential sign another talent youth midfielder.
Camavinga is unique players and keep consistent with his performance, Real Madrid get advantage with him because can play well on some position such as right defender and holding midfielder. Carlo Ancelotti not confirming yet will sell his favorite players because Camavinga can back up if Madrid loss their the right defender and he plays well there such as with his real position.

Ancelotti likes Camavinga a lot and he was the one who decided to give Camavina a lot of playing time and to develop him as a personality on and off the pitch. Camaving's career at Real Madrid started with Ancelotti's arrival. He was given the chance to play well over 60 games and I think he got started when he was age 19.

As you correctly pointed out, Luka Modric is about to leave the club or at least won't be able to contribute as much and Kroos isn't getting any younger now. Camavinga is definitely one of the core players in Ancelotti's system and since Ancelotti is a fan of him and stays until 2026, there is no realistic scenario I think where Ancelotti would agree to letting Camavinga go elsewhere. If a coach is absolutely convinced of a player and there is no need to sell players because the club is rich enough,  Ä110m doesn't sound like a lot of money for a 21 years old super talent.
8  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: April 08, 2024, 08:19:58 PM

Totenham has not yet determined timo's future in the club. IMO, time played quite well since he came to the Tottenham. He has recorded pretty good stats and i think totenham shall make him as a permanent transfer to ensure club will have someone who can replace maddison when he will injury.

Timo's stats



From 11 EPL matches and he has recorded two goals and three assists and this is good stats considering the fact that if ange was always putting him as LW. It's good to keep him as a permanent transfer in totenham.

Im sure ange will be surely agreed on this. Timo's contribution is pretty good enough as a new player that just came to the totenham.


It is still early days in my opinion and Werner is a player who does have his highs sometimes, but he fell short of showing consistent performances over several weeks, let alone months. He couldn't prevail at Chelsea, which was one of the worst transfers Chelsea has paid a lot of money for. But when he came back to Leipzig he was having the same problems that he had at Chelsea.

Now onto the next adventure for him and so far so good I think. The stats are ok, but this is not yet statistically significant data. Tottenham has got some time until they make their decision and if they want to push and incentivize him to do his best for the team, I think it is better for them to wait a few more games in order to let him know that there is no leaning back now.

Tottenham is still on the brink of making it into the Champions League qualification. There is no need to reward a player like Werner with a long-term contract when the most important work hasn't been done yet.
9  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: April 08, 2024, 07:55:09 PM
Real vs Manchester City looks like the best game to be chosen for watching tomorrow and judging from the last game of Real Madrid in Champions League I have a lot of doubts in their probability to win at home against City despite the bookies giving them an extraordinary odd of 2.85 that we rarely see for them when playing at Bernabeu.I am more prone to choose the win of Manchester City with an odd of 2.45 as they are in a much better form compared to Real Madrid.
The bookies have predicted that Man City will outperform the game at the Bernabeu but we know Man City is more processing the ball than making direct kicking attacks, in contrast to Real Madrid will definitely rely on fast attacks where when Man City is a little off guard.

I can't be sure who will win but still usually playing at the Bernabeu the team will be favored over the opponent but the bookies are more inclined to Man City.
I'll be watching this important match but haven't decided which odds to bet on yet.

I agree with the way you described how Manchester City is playing at the moment. Their offense isn't quite as good this season despite their overwhelming statistics in ball possession. It should also be mentioned that the first leg in the Bernabeu Stadium last season ended in a draw thanks to the late world class goal scored by De Bruyne. Real Madrid had chances to win that game and like almost always, Manchester City began the game with a lot of passing and it looked as if Real Madrid couldn't get their feet on the ball ever. But if they do, it's turning into a threat right away.

Vinicius Junios is able to score any minute and Real Madrid is a stronger team this season than they were last season. It could be worth a bet on Real Madrid winning the game.
10  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Has BTC really become more attractive than gold? on: April 08, 2024, 07:47:23 PM
I would like to know your views on BTC and gold:
  • Are you investing in BTC or gold?
  • Do you think BTC has become more attractive than gold in the investment sector?
  • Have people like Peter Schiff accumulated a lot of BTC while still badmouthing BTC in the media?
1. Why do you use "investing in BTC or gold" in the question? There is nothing stopping from combining investing in traditional gold and digital gold, as the "gold mining company Nilam Resources" plans.

On a forum called bitcointalk, you are unlikely to hear many confessions about investing in gold.

2. I would say bitcoin is becoming more attractive in the investment sector with each new cycle.

3. This is not excluded. No intelligent investor would publicly voice their investment strategies, because this is the same as playing poker with their cards exposed.

That's true and that is because development on the protocol will progress, second layer options will further emerge and improve and utility is increasing with BTC's volume and price.

Everyone who has been traveling to countries in the recent past where BTC ATMs are located, probably has had a positive experience using BTC. I mean it depends on the fees of those ATMs of course and some of them are just too expensive and not really feasible. But still BTC is the most liquid and mobile asset you can have at the moment (next to fiat of course). But BTC doesn't have a limit in terms of capital mobility. If you want to take a billion dollars in BTC with you, you can go wherever you want and nobody will and can stop you from carrying it with you and using it abroad. Try getting a billion dollars in gold bars out of the country, or in cash. Or try it with some pieces of art, or a watch collection. Try it with a bank transfer.

There is simply no way that any of the physical or digital assets running on legacy systems infrastructure could give you the advantages that BTC gives you. As more people realize that, adoption will further increase, then in turn increase utility, which then further drives adoption.
11  Economy / Economics / Re: considering the advantage of Fiats over Cryptocurrencies on: April 08, 2024, 07:28:35 PM
While we are so comfortable about the potentials of the decentralized digital currencies such as the Alt and the Bit coins and its centralized exchanges in the blockchains, let's also understand that the Fiats has an advantage over it that you'd have somewhere to go to and someone to hold responsible in some cases that your fund in the bank is tempered by a theft or otherwise than that of Crypto that it's transactions is operated anonymously
Everything is life is not so balanced are when you're dealing with the sweetest parts of it, we fails to consider the bitter side of it.
Most of us as at times thought about how Crypto could dominate over financial exchange for payments without considering this certain advantage of the Fiats and also considering that most persons still lives a primitive live to cope with the digitalities of advancements.

You are probably talking about fiat money that is deposited in a bank account. Otherwise, nobody is going to refund you the $10,000 cash you carried around when someone hit you with a hammer and ran with the money. But the implicit calculation that you did here lacks something that's very important to note:

When you get hacked and money is stolen from your bank account, the bank tells you that you might be to blame, but they compensate for the loss out of goodwill. First of all, in many cases when bank accounts get hacked, hackers found away to penetrate the security architecture of the bank and exploit weaknesses there. But they will still try to make you feel guilty.

But now there is another very important difference when it comes to fiat money deposited in a bank: they use your hard earned money to earn money. In essence, you entrust them with your money and allow them to generate cash for themselves with your money, but at the same time you rightfully demand a certain level of security. When you own a decentralized currency, banks are pissed because you don't deposit it in a bank account, which then means that your money doesn't serve as capital on a bank's balance sheet.

If banks were to let you alone with damages resulting from hacks, I am sure you would certainly consider self-custody. i.e. manage your own cryptocurrencies, as there is no more advantage for you to deposit wealth at a financial institution.

Many of the advantages that fiat money has over BTC are artificially developed and enforced through legal frameworks phrased and pushed by the powerful banking lobby. Fiat money has advantages not because it is intrinsically better, but because the lobby behind fiat is still Goliath while the lobby behind BTC is growing, but still David. Wink
12  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: April 07, 2024, 09:02:25 PM

In fact, Joshua Kimmich's days at Bayern Munich may already be over. Even though he has a contract until June 2025 with Bayern, the player seems to be very willing to swap the Bundesliga for LaLiga.
At 28 years old... he is no longer a new player, but he is ready to take on new challenges and the German player's differences with Bavarians coach Thomas Tuchel seem to be increasing the chances of Joshua leaving. I believe this could be the trigger for him to leave his homeland for Spain.

In addition to all this, we cannot forget that Joshua is also Xavi HernŠndez's favorite to fill the absence left by Busquets in midfield.

For these reasons, I also believe he will leave Bayern
The glorious days of Bayern Munich is gradually coming to an end and we gets to see the new era kicks off. Thomas Tuchel should be held responsible for ongoing poor performance hitting harder on the team, they're having no serious improvement and continue to struggle before they win matches. Bayern Munich having one of the worst season and this is really decisive if they can actually bounce to good form or remain in the dark. Joshua Kimmich have contributed to the progress of the club and this have been the desirable player for the club but he's not getting any younger and most of his incredible qualities is gradually fading away.

There is a combination of a couple of things when everything goes South like that. Bayern usually had professionals in leadership positions that had an amazing career and understood how to manage a club. But they now decided to have some former business CEOs take full control of the club and I thought that couldn't work out and it didn't. There is a lack of expertise. Before that they had this guy called Salihamidciz and I doubt that anyone respected him. It was him and former CEO Kahn who sacked Nagelsmann to then sign Tuchel. It all went wrong and now they are paying the bill.

But the good days are far from coming to an end. This is one season and I think everyone has a feeling of what can now be expected next from Bayern. They will take some serious cash, sign players and a star trainer and then aim at playing a perfect season 2024/2025.
13  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: April 07, 2024, 07:45:18 PM
The bookmakers are giving Manchester City a slight edge over Real Madrid in the Bernabeu Stadium. I think I disagree here. It should be equal or slightly advantageous for Real Madrid in their home game.
The bookmakers are still being respectful to Manchester City because they are the defending champion and so far in the champions league this season, they have been excellent. In this season, Real Madrid look more likely to win that game because of Manchester City are not as difficult to play this season as they were last season. Real Madrid are much better than last season, It is not going to be an easy game for the defending champions.

Bayern Munich at odds over 4.0 could be worth a bet. I am sure that they will play a decent game in England. Whether they can win, I don't know, but they are good enough to justify a bet on over 4.0.
Bayern may be without Manuel Neuer, Kingsley Coman and  Leroy Sane, all because of injuries. Bayern will miss Sane more because of his speed of moving attacks, which can be important against Arsenal. I watched how Arsenal played against Manchester City in the premiership, I hope they do not play fully defensive against Bayern, they need to attack Bayern and win the game before going to Germany.

https://onefootball.com/en/news/5-bayern-munich-players-at-risk-of-missing-champions-league-clash-with-arsenal-39305557

Thanks for bringing me up to date here, didn't have those news on my radar. I was aware that Neuer is having issues and that he didn't play in the Bundesliga, but I don't think it makes much of a difference if Ulreich replaces him. Of course Neuer sometimes has special moments, but Ulreich is not several levels below him. I consider him a very solid goalkeeper that the team can rely upon both in easier and hard games.

Sanť is a loss to Bayern, but really only if he is in top shape. He has bad games sporadically and each time I don't understand why a player like him is moving up and down on the performance curve all season long. Coman hasn't been playing a lot as of late, has he? Sometimes I am not too closely following everything, but now that you mention him I think he has been away for a while.

It is going to be a tough game and Arsenal knows that this home game is their big chance. A win is obligatory if they want to reach the next round and Bayern has never been weaker than that this season.
14  Economy / Economics / Re: Everything is over priced but people keep spending on: April 06, 2024, 01:12:49 PM
Isn't perhaps one of the biggest problems that we call things now overpriced that have for a long time been underpriced? I think a lot of the negative aspects of our consumption behavior have for a long time not been priced into good and services. Or rather bads and services. You may get the point already.

I have recently watched a few documentaries about large-scale meat production and food production in general. Some of the documentaries were about agricultural production, but also about other kinds of highly processed foods. Meat is the most prominent example when I shop for groceries and realize how cheap some of it is, but once you saw some of those documentaries you also realize that it is barely acceptable to criticize the pricing as someone or something is paying for it. In this case it is the animals and to a large degree the environment. I know different people have different opinions here, but I concur that there are products which are overly expensive, but many of the products that people complain about may have been underpriced for a long time.

Since you said everything is overpriced, I thought I may give my 2 cents here. You could make a case for many many products that now seem to be too expensive while the reasons for those products to have been so cheap in the past should at least be looked at in more detail before making a final judgment.

Economies of scale and comparative advantage are important principles that the global economy and its supply chains are based upon, but this doesn't mean that the advantages these principles bring about are evenly distributed across the world and among people. Some will call inequality a necessary evil and I probably agree to some degree. But when supply chains get interrupted and the rich world suddenly has to bear the cost that the poor world was bearing for them, the outcry about expensive products deserves a closer look and a more sophisticated answer. 
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is the halving already priced in? on: April 06, 2024, 11:01:24 AM
Oh, that strong sensation of deja vu....I recall several threads speculating about what BTC might do pre/post-halvening, and IIRC members who thought that it was priced in were shot down (or at least there wasn't much support for that theory).

I happen to think all of the halvings are priced in, and that's if there's anything to price in at all.  There's no reason why bitcoin should do anything when the block reward gets chopped in half, right?  Just because the miners need a higher price to keep them in the black doesn't provide an impetus for anything at all to happen to the market.

And I remember writing a few times that no matter what my opinion is, bitcoin could rise based on people speculating that the halving is going to boost the price, and I think that's happened.  Ah, I don't know.  I'm just going to watch like I always do and root for $100k--but I'm hoping it gets there gradually, not in a massive 2017 spike.

This probably describes best what's going on. Coming up with a technical explanation for the BTC price to rise or not around the halving isn't very helpful on an individual basis. It still remains pure speculation, but the psychological tendency of the majority of people is probably the assumption that the price still rises. The perceived increased scarcity when the block reward drops is likely to have a bigger impact on the price than the idea that the scarcity concept is already priced in and people may take profits around the halving.

It is the same with expected and actual inflation and how expected inflation drives actual inflation. It often needs time and only via a moving average can realistic conclusions be drawn where people really thought the inflation rate would end up being.

BTC's price could be overpriced, or underpriced, but the interesting thing about expectations in the BTC network is that halvings are hard-coded. Inflation isn't hard-coded and can depend on a million of things, like a pandemic, logistic problems, war, trade wars, climate, etc. One could assume that expectations could be priced in easier for the BTC network since increased scarcity isn't the result of unexpected events, and yet it is a hard nut to crack.

I believe it is more about a narrative when it comes to halvings. They have manifested themselves as being BTC price booster, but technically they shouldn't be as everyone can look up the schedule and then make up their minds about a potential future price tag. The truth is that BTC reflects far, far, far more of the complex world than just a pre-defined halving schedule / programmed emission curve / scarcity. But the halving schedule is the easiest to understand of all the things that BTC interacts with. It's something people can easily follow via a countdown. However, complex developments like geopolitical tensions or aspects from political economy aren't something that many people can reasonably evaluate. That's why I think these halvings, despite being perfectly predictable, can still set free some of the known herding behavior.
16  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: April 06, 2024, 10:32:19 AM
It doesn't look like last weekend's league results had any impact on the odds of an outright UCL winner. Odds for Man City dropped slightly from x2.80 to 2.85 after 0-0 draw against Arsenal at home.
Odds for Bayern and Dortmund remain unchanged despite Borussia surprisingly beating Bayern 0-2 in an away game and are x8.0 and x26.0 respectively. I guess bookies either don't put too much weight on the direct league games between teams still participating in the UCL, or maybe they consider Borussia's win as pure luck.
Odds for Borussia winning the next game in Madrid against Atletico are x4.70 which is starting to look like a potentially good bet.

I think the game Bayern vs. Dortmund shouldn't have an impact on the odds for the Champions League games as you can't take the Bundesliga games of Bayern too seriously at this point. I am sure that they will play on a different level in the Champions League. In the Bundesliga all hope for a title was lost quite early on due to Leverkusen's remarkable performance and it is probably a motivational issue when a team understands that the result is more or less meaningless.

Atletico Madrid is weird as they are hard to predict. On the one hand they kicked out one of the biggest favorites, Inter Milan, and on the other hand they are playing so erratically in La Liga. Winning only 2 out of the last 5 games in La Liga and they lost some games against teams from the bottom of the standings. But that doesn't mean they are not the favorite against Dortmund as Dortmund is having similar issues. I doubt that Dortmund can beat them in Spain.

The bookmakers are giving Manchester City a slight edge over Real Madrid in the Bernabeu Stadium. I think I disagree here. It should be equal or slightly advantageous for Real Madrid in their home game.

Bayern Munich at odds over 4.0 could be worth a bet. I am sure that they will play a decent game in England. Whether they can win, I don't know, but they are good enough to justify a bet on over 4.0.
17  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: April 06, 2024, 10:07:26 AM
Yes I agree it is highly unlikely that Barcelona would have a chance if it comes down to competing bids between them and Chelsea. As you said, waiting two years for a transfer until the player can play is not something that Barcelona would be able to afford in their current financial situation.

Is this rule fixed that he would have to wait 2 years until he can play? What I don't get is that other players have played in La Liga before they turned 18, or not? 18 sounds so old and there are many players who get their first experience at the age of 17 and even 16.

I think itís not a rule but you canít buy them direct to your first team rather they will be registered under your academy and then you offer them promotion. Also I think the amount is the worry because you canít buy a teenager that amount according to FFP rules and maybe thatís why they want to take the route of allowing him be with his boyhood club before the age which he can sign his first professional contract

Ok I found this website and it is as you described that they can gather some experience with the first La Liga team when they are playing for their academy and then sporadically act as substitutes in La Liga games. But there is no fixed rule for a minimum age or something. Instead, there are international FIFA rules and the idea is that those rules are to be followed if there is no other national rule set.

One important aspect of those rules is that signing players under 18 is only accepted if the player comes from Spain or some nighbor country. I think it was the same with this kid that Real Madrid signed for a lot of money when they agreed that he will join the club when he is about to turn 18.

If the goal is to protect the players' childhood and youth, I think there are a lot of other things that could be done as well. But when a player is really good enough to compete with adults, I think there is no issue with letting them play at 17 or so. There will always be these unbelievable exceptions and as long as they are treated with caution, giving them playing time at a younger age shouldn't be an issue.
18  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: April 05, 2024, 09:51:14 PM
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It's true that we also hope that the match between Madrid and City should be an ideal final, but fate brought them together in the quarter finals this season, and only one of them has the right to qualify for the semifinals. But I think, one of those who qualify will have a big chance of reaching the final, because since the start of the season, either Madrid or City have been the favorites to win the trophy this season.

It's not wrong, in many ways the two teams are at the same level except for their glorious history, in that case Madrid is clearly above all the teams in Europe. Meanwhile, I hope that both teams can field their best squads, without any key players getting injured, so that they can show their best strengths. Apart from that, regarding the tactics of the two coaches, there is no doubt about the quality of Ancelotti and Pep Guardiola.

To be honest, it is quite difficult to guess who will emerge victorious in this match, because both teams have all the attributes needed to beat each other. Of course, everyone will be waiting for the Madrid vs City match, and for some people this match is a too early final, so it is worth waiting for.

I agree and complaining doesn't make any sense anyway. There are advantages and disadvantages when the best teams in a competition play against each other early on. The good thing is that we don' t have too wait too long until the big clashes in the Champions League finally take place. And there are two games to be played, which is another positive aspect of this encounter. A final would only be one game, so looking forward to seeing Manchester City vs. Real Madrid twice is quite fun.

The bad aspect is when underdogs get away too well all the time and end up in a final. Of course watching an underdog can be fun, but I wouldn't like to see something like Porto against Manchester City. I know Porto is out, I am just saying. Dortmund wasn't playing very well either and I doubt they would have a chance against Real Madrid or Manchester City.
19  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: April 05, 2024, 09:24:17 PM
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Of course, it was an extraordinary comeback from Chelsea, in fact many people might have believed that Chelsea would lose when the match entered injury time. I was disappointed with the result of the match, obviously because I hoped that Manchester United would not make any more mistakes in the last minutes. Dalot does not deserve to be blamed, but he was the cause of Chelsea's revival in the final minutes until they had to accept defeat.

The match was exciting and high tension. There were plenty of fouls and drama, but I don't believe Dalot committed the serious foul that resulted in Cole Palmer's second penalty. I saw Dalot touch an opposing player when he was down, but maybe not on purpose.

Not really all that surprising that people thought this game would end in a boring way with no more action and the win for Manchester United would be save. Actually, Chelsea wasn't dangerous at all and they weren't really trying anymore, but this one penalty situation revived the game suddenly.

But to be honest Manchester United deserved the loss because they did by no means play this game like an elite squad. It looked lazy and overly confident that nothing would happen anymore. I expect a team that aims at qualifying for the Champions League to play at highest concentration levels until the final whistle is blown. They kicked the ball a bit back and forth and there was no alertness anymore. I enjoyed that defeat because I hate ten Hag and I hope that he will finally get sacked anytime soon. Enough is enough and he has had his chances.
20  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: April 05, 2024, 08:52:51 PM
This is Juventus' revenge for Lazio, who beat them in Serie A. But unfortunately, yesterday in Serie A, Juventus failed to win against Lazio. Even though this is a more prestigious match.
At least, Juventus did not disappoint many parties in this match. because after all, they had just lost to Lazio quite horribly in Serie A. So, they had to fight even more optimally in this Italian Copa and they succeeded in doing it.
However, Juventus must pay attention and improve their performance again in Serie A, the main league in Italy. Because this is a procedure that is much more reliable and expected by all clubs. because, after all, one of Juventus' goals this time is also to enter the Champions League next season. So no matter what, they have to stay in the top 4 and qualify.

So, if their performance in Serie A continues to decline and they experience more defeats, that's it. Their position will be increasingly threatened by other clubs. Although, for now, the club with the most potential to take over Juventus' position is Bologna. But, we'll see how Juventus can handle all this, if they are really serious about entering the UCL.

Juventus is still looking alright as I think their only goal is to qualify for the Champions League this season. I thought they would be able to compete with Inter Milan for the Scudetto until the end of the season, but the distance between them and Inter is huge. It's 20 points after 30 games, which I think doesn't need any more comments.

If Juventus plans to close that gap anytime soon and finally become competitive again, I think they would have to add several high quality players to their team. This is certainly not sufficient right now. They are scoring a mere 1.5 goals per game, which is very poor for a team that thrives to be among the best in Europe. Their defense is more or less ok although it doesn't really help them as they are rarely scoring goals themselves.

But they should keep an eye on what's happening behind them. It is 7 points to Roma, but there are a couple of hard games coming up and Roma probably hasn't given up on the top 4 just yet.
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