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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2024 Elliott Wave on: April 18, 2024, 02:29:44 PM


Not a triangle, maybe a complex flat
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2022 Elliott Wave on: April 25, 2022, 02:56:42 PM
See sections 5.2 and 5.3 of the following: https://phantran.net/elliott-wave-theory-ewt/

The sideways move from APR-2021 to JAN-2022 is simply considered as a W-X-Y (a 3-3-3 Flat structure), called a Double. It does not require to be followed by another combinatory structure (i.e. making it a Triple), or be followed by a Triangle.

Got it, W until June 2021.
A W is an a-b-c structure.

In regard to a A-B-C structure, only the final fifth within the wave-C is required to be five waves; i.e.

A(a-b-c)
B(a-b-c)
C(1-2-3-4-5) OR C(a-b-c(1-2-3-4-5))

If the latter option of C unfolds, then the structure may be considered as W-X-Y instead. This is commonly unknown, and usually occurs in commodity and forex markets. Can't recall where this was exactly discussed, but following reference may assist...

Wrong, there are no hybrid structures like ABY or WXC. W and Y are complexes, A and C are not.
Wave C is only impulse (5 waves) or diagonal, unless in a triangle but this is not the case. It's clearly written in the book, please check page 89.
Counting a C in 3 is going against the rules.
You count that W as a flat, so C should have 5 waves and no other options are allowed.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2022 Elliott Wave on: April 24, 2022, 06:44:43 PM
As per Page 53 of the following reference...

    Elliott Wave Principle - Key to Market Behavior by Robert R Prechter Jr and A.J. Frost
    https://cupdf.com/document/elliott-wave-principle-key-to-market-behavior-by-frost-and-prechter.html

—A-B-C Flat is a 3-3-5 structure.
—W-X-Y Flat is a 3-3-3 structure.

Ok, you missed W-X-Y could also be a 3-3-5, with Y triangle

Technically speaking, in an A-B-C structure, only the final fifth within the wave-C is required to be five waves; i.e.

A(a-b-c)
B(a-b-c)
C(1-2-3-4-5) OR C(a-b-c(1-2-3-4-5))

and hence can still be considered as an A-B-C —just nomenclature.

No mate, not "just nomenclature", this is crucial. A wave C can't be in 3, only Y (as 2nd impulse of a structure) can be in 3, at the same way as 1/3/5 waves can't be in 3.
W/X/Y = a-b-c/a-b-c/a-b-c OR a-b-c/a-b-c/a-b-c-d-e OR a-b-c/w-x-y/a-b-c OR a-b-c/w-x-y/a-b-c-d-e. That's all.
A/B/C = a-b-c/a-b-c/1-2-3-4-5 OR w-x-y/a-b-c/1-2-3-4-5 OR w-x-y/w-x-y/1-2-3-4-5. Final 1-2-3-4-5 can be changed with a-b-c-d-e. That's all.

Did you read in the book a C wave can be in a-b-c?


Thus far, it appears the correction from JAN-2021 to MAR-2022 is 3-3-3 structure;
Huh

I mean this
https://ibb.co/1ZzG3M4

You see this part as a 3-3-3, waves here can be named only w-x-y (double three). Unless you can find a way of counting a 3-3-5, than it would be ok for an a-b-c (also w-x-y, if y triangle).
Assuming this part is a 3-3-3=w-x-y (= A only, not W), after a following B we need a 5 wave pattern. But the second impulse 20 Oct '21 to 24 Jan '22 is counted in 3. There is something wrong here.


Consider the following timescales...

    PRIMARY[5]→INTERMEDIATE(2) pullback was 261 days.
    PRIMARY[5]→INTERMEDIATE(4) pullback was 285 days (if now complete).

    PRIMARY[4] pullback was 364 days.

Would not expect PRIMARY[5]→INTERMEDIATE(4) pullback to last longer than PRIMARY[4] pullback, and so ought to complete by mid-April 2022; and hence would not expect an ongoing sideways correction.

Previously you said:
Quote
The Elliott Wave model and projections are indicative of price & structure, not time.

Indeed we don't have fixed laws for the time variable (e.g. "a 3 wave can't be the smallest" is a fixed law), time is quite an "accomodating" concept in the theory. Being 2 an 4 equal in time is not eligible to be a good sign of correct labelling, in my opinion.
See page 230, 217 (II and IV of (III))...

However I think there is something, probably related to the "right look" concept. But that's another story.


Thanks for your efforts and sharing your interpretation   Smiley
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2022 Elliott Wave on: April 24, 2022, 03:10:59 PM
Certainly the labelling is not appropriate
MINOR A of INTERMEDIATE(4), then labelled as W:

[c] can't be into an (a) (b) (c)

Still possible to make a W for that wave, but not like that.

BTW, what do you think about this hypothesis?

https://ibb.co/F02XdLL

Consider that a running flat (for what I observed in BTC) has usually a fast "restart", 3 months from the end of Jan, same as your wave Y, seems too long to me.
I know this is not a written in stone rule for the standard theory, but I would still take it into consideration.
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