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July 28, 2017, 08:45:05 AM *
News: BIP91 seems stable: there's probably only slightly increased risk of confirmations disappearing. You should still prepare for Aug 1.
 
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1141  Economy / Speculation / Re: Call the bottom on: November 19, 2013, 05:36:57 PM
All of the options are for turbobears Sad.
1142  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does the FBI have the power to crash bitcoins? on: November 19, 2013, 05:03:49 PM
In terms of the FBI cashing out the silk road BTC, they can only do that once it has gone to trial and a verdict has been decided.

There is also circumstantial evidence that while they do have access to DPR's personal Bitcoins, and they have a dump of the disk with Silk Road's escrow wallet, they do not have the key to access it. Thus there is a good chance that those BTC are gone forever rather than in the US government's hands.

If they can't access them, how did they move them to this address that they publicly announced?
https://blockchain.info/address/1FfmbHfnpaZjKFvyi1okTjJJusN455paPH
1143  Economy / Speculation / Re: Proof: Chinese can do art! on: November 19, 2013, 03:49:42 AM
Price movement looks artificial. Not enough randomness.

Or maybe you actually get a more efficient market when you remove trading fees.
1144  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin to hit $1000! on: November 19, 2013, 12:58:18 AM

btccharts.com
1145  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 19, 2013, 12:54:32 AM
879 yuan to go until gold parity Wink
1146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Spread Mt.Gox-Bitstamp ??? on: November 18, 2013, 05:29:51 AM
A $71 USD spread. I knew I should have turned down that last load of barn wood and converted all my money into bitcoins.

Actually, the return I get with flipping barn wood is still better than if had all my money tied up in bitcoins, albeit the gap is narrowing as the economy improves and more people started doing what I do.

What is this reference to "barn wood" a cannot find a source explaining this?  You mean "barn wood == USD"?  As in both good for burning?

He means wood, from a barn.
1147  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: November 18, 2013, 05:26:10 AM
I always loved Lucif's TA thread, but hearing Masterluc phrase his Jedi wisdom in Yoda's voice makes this the best thread on this site.
What ever happened to Lucif?

Also, does anyone know of popular BTC related forums for the China market?

masterluc is lucif Tongue
1148  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why do you think BTC price is increasing so fast? on: November 18, 2013, 05:25:03 AM
Only 21 million ever.
1149  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is the bitcoin price rising out of interest or is someone just pumping this? on: November 18, 2013, 02:21:31 AM
I feel like people are just pumping this. If you look on mtgox there are times when someone is buying 30+ dollars over the average but there is also times when people are selling for 30+ below the average. Also who would buy a btc for 540 when the average is clearly 504? I think a large group of investors are behind this just pumping the avg pretty much. I've never seen btc jump like this and there really is no major reason behind it. What are your thoughts? Do you think this is just happening because of interest or do you think there is more to it?

zoom out:
1150  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2013, 01:02:21 AM
Keep going west and you'll find China eventually.

East works too.
1151  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where are all the bears? on: November 18, 2013, 12:46:03 AM
I am here, more bearish than ever! Wink I was wrong when I sold at 350: that f_cking wall at 300 did break and now we are +200... so yeah, my prediction was incorrect.
But I still don't understand why we are at the current price, makes no sense at this point imo... so I would not rebuy until I see at least two corrections.

Look at a daily chart with volume for the past 2-3 months.  Each of the down days had huge volume and all of these sellers are chasing.
1152  Economy / Speculation / Re: The trouble with tribbles on: November 17, 2013, 11:42:05 PM
0 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144...
1153  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 17, 2013, 11:25:56 PM
The crash from the eventual high is going to be epic.


LOL, some of the people here will still be holding their BTC when they look like the guy in the bottom half of that picture.

Bitcoin : You really can take it with you when you die.
I'll sell a few close to $1000  Wink

There is always a bigger fish in this market.



This is why we no longer have any bearish whales:
1154  Economy / Speculation / Re: How much of a bubble is this? on: November 17, 2013, 11:22:44 PM
You guys fail to see the real value of Bitcoin and why is rissing so fast.

Right now is a fantastic long term Store of Value, the currency side will start to grow in use after the price is more stable in a few years.

A currency that fluctuates anywhere from 10% to 80% in one day is a horrible store of value. It`s far too voiltile now to have any confidence in future valuations. In order for it to stabilize, people need to actually use it to purchase goods and services, not just speculate. I just don`t see the need for people to convert their fiat to bitcoin, costing them fees, so they can buy Subway sandwiches.

Nobody who has held for 18 months or more has taken a loss.

I`m sure a beanie baby collector in 1996 would have said the same thing.  Smiley

Right, because beanies babies are useful, like a censorship resistant digital currency with a hard supply limit and bounded inflation.
1155  Economy / Speculation / Re: How much of a bubble is this? on: November 17, 2013, 11:07:27 PM
You guys fail to see the real value of Bitcoin and why is rissing so fast.

Right now is a fantastic long term Store of Value, the currency side will start to grow in use after the price is more stable in a few years.

A currency that fluctuates anywhere from 10% to 80% in one day is a horrible store of value. It`s far too voiltile now to have any confidence in future valuations. In order for it to stabilize, people need to actually use it to purchase goods and services, not just speculate. I just don`t see the need for people to convert their fiat to bitcoin, costing them fees, so they can buy Subway sandwiches.

Nobody who has held for 18 months or more has taken a loss.
1156  Economy / Speculation / Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins on: November 17, 2013, 09:19:37 PM
Everyone has a price.  Everyone.  Mine is US$10k.  If bitcoins hit US$10k each I'll sell all of mine to all comers.  Until then I'll hoard and not spend a satoshi.

Thats a high price my friend by anyone's measure.  When do you think we will reach that?

573 days
1157  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does not it bother anyone that BTC value increasing too fast? on: November 17, 2013, 06:38:42 PM
He who controls the miners, controls Bitcoin.
And who controls the routers, controls internet.

But if they try to partition or censor the internet, it is simple to set up new routers to rejoin the partitions.
1158  Economy / Speculation / Re: What are best sites that allow to short BTC on margin? on: November 17, 2013, 06:30:48 PM
bitfinex is limited to 1:2 atm.

Not to mention they never have USD reserve to buy on bitstamp lately.

OP wants to short.  This should open up some USD. Tongue
1159  Economy / Speculation / Re: Big crash on: November 17, 2013, 06:26:43 PM
Oh well, basically everyone who has bitcoins is currently sitting on profits. And a lot of people are starring at their wallets and cannot believe how wealthy they have become or becoming....this cannot go on forever.

We should not forget that there are currently 3.5 Mio USD on loan at Bitfinex at high interest rates (80% p.a.) for leveraged bitcoin long positions. This all goes well as long as prices go up, but once we reach stability or a drop a lot of coins will come to the market. Given that many people try to react quickly to get out of their positions, creating margin calls could create a flashcrash to levels no one would expect.

In my eyes the crash will come, the only question is when and from which levels.

@$500/BTC $3.5 million is only 7k coins.  Sure that is significant, but it isn't enough to clear the bids down to $450.

1. Bitfinex prices are linked to the Bitstamp orderbook (465 USD)... much lower depth...
2. Those loans were not taken out at 465, but at much lower levels.
3. People use their coins as margin and might be sold as well...

Letīs guess it is 10000-12000 coins...

Only these coins could bring down the bitstamp and bitfinex price to USD 300...

1. Bitfinex prices are linked to the Bitfinex order book, which has Bitstamp orders, plus in house orders. 7000 BTC would indeed take us to $370, based on order depth alone, but arbitrage opportunities will dampen that quite a bit unless it happens very quickly.
2. Right, so there is quite some headroom before they are forced out and my observations are that Bitfinex longs decrease when there are down drafts.  In other words, they are using stop losses.
3. Sure

12000 all at once would take Bitfinex to $280. 10000 would take it to $320.  But, the headroom, stop losses, and arbitrage will keep us from seeing bitcoinica era volatility caused by Bitfinex.  It may happen due to other forces, but Bitfinex doesn't have enough leverage and the exchange market is too widely distributed for Bitfinex to control price.
1160  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A bitcoin video I made (video) on: November 17, 2013, 05:14:22 PM
Other than the factual inaccuracies and the typos and the difficult to read text, good job.  Seriously, thank you for making an effort to spread the word.  Your core message is good, just fix up a few details and you'll have a professional quality video.

In particular, Bitcoin is not inflation free.  It has bounds on inflation and a hard limit on the total supply, but at the moment the bitcoin monetary base is inflating faster than the USD.
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