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1141  Economy / Speculation / Re: Big crash on: November 17, 2013, 04:55:24 PM
Oh well, basically everyone who has bitcoins is currently sitting on profits. And a lot of people are starring at their wallets and cannot believe how wealthy they have become or becoming....this cannot go on forever.

We should not forget that there are currently 3.5 Mio USD on loan at Bitfinex at high interest rates (80% p.a.) for leveraged bitcoin long positions. This all goes well as long as prices go up, but once we reach stability or a drop a lot of coins will come to the market. Given that many people try to react quickly to get out of their positions, creating margin calls could create a flashcrash to levels no one would expect.

In my eyes the crash will come, the only question is when and from which levels.

@$500/BTC $3.5 million is only 7k coins.  Sure that is significant, but it isn't enough to clear the bids down to $450.
1142  Economy / Speculation / Re: The MtGox price of bitcoin will reach $1000 USD before the end of 2014 [BET] on: November 17, 2013, 03:55:10 PM
Quote
The price of bitcoin will be exchanged for $1000 USD or more at any time before 12:00am January 1st, 2015. It need not hold for any period of time, bet closes as soon as it hits $1000 or at the end of the time period.

In the event that MtGox does not exist anymore, the site moderator here at betsofbitco.in will determine which exchange's data we use

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1377

1.50BTC for and 2.50BTC against.

Ok so If I bet 2.5 on against how much do I get if I win? I am quite new to the betting system you are offering..

It is not calculable because other people might bet tomorrow and the amount you win would change but there is a relation between the amount you bet and the how early you bet. Some one betting today will get considerably more money than someone betting on november next year. 50% of earnings are calculated depending on how much you bet and 50% on how early you bet.

The system is really weird, can you explain more in detail how much I would get if I bet now on against?

http://betsofbitco.in/help
1143  Economy / Speculation / Re: 1 BTC = 1,000,000 usd on: November 17, 2013, 03:48:51 PM
If btc users save their coins, and they do not circulate, then btc which circulate gain in purchasing power.  When I last checked, the velocity of btc was 5.93, which is comparable to usd.  However, since btc is a superior  saving instrument, being deflationary, this velocity is likely to go down, driving up the value of a btc relative to goods and services.  You can't compare money supplies to estimate relative valuations.  You have to estimate money flows, M*V.
What is the velocity you are talking about? Any sources, explanations?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money
1144  Economy / Speculation / Re: where are all the sellers, nothing to sell above $500? on: November 17, 2013, 07:33:15 AM
are they all just siting off the order book to let it rise and then dump in or what?

there are just no sales I can see above 500, its flat from there on?Huh

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD

In order to get to $500, you would have to buy 3700 BTC.  Many of these will be put up for sale at higher prices than they were purchased.
1145  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - China wall movement tracker on: November 17, 2013, 06:57:49 AM
The whole exchange seams to be completely out of Bitcoin.

where's the starfish?

remember that?



Bitfinex is showing this:
Quote
Not enough USD reserve on Bitstamp, you cannot buy on Bitstamp at the moment
1146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 17, 2013, 06:56:39 AM
Isn't there a checksum?

Yes, there is a link on the download page "Verify release signatures".

Verifying the checksum of Bitcoin software is important.
If someone were able to change the software on the site, don't you think they'd be able to adjust the checksum mentioned there as well?
That's why developers should always sign the checksums with their keys. However, the client_downloads to checksum_downloads ratio
is daunting.

The checksums are signed.
1147  Economy / Speculation / Re: What are best sites that allow to short BTC on margin? on: November 17, 2013, 03:32:39 AM
Notme it seems bitfinex also acts as market maker instead of offering access to likes of btc e?

They idea of inviting investors is cool. Its just bitcoin jumps up and down by how many % max? say bet is 1000X10 = 10,000 so it have to jump more that 10% at once to create loss for provider. Do such jumps happens often? I got one more idea Smiley

>10% moves happen pretty regularly.
1148  Economy / Speculation / Re: What are best sites that allow to short BTC on margin? on: November 17, 2013, 03:16:43 AM
Hi folks,

What are best sites that provide BTC short facilities on margin? say 10x margin? Smiley

The last site to offer leverage that high went bankrupt.

bitfinex.com allows up to 2.5X
1149  Economy / Speculation / Re: Fellow speculators, do you ever feel numbed to price increases? on: November 17, 2013, 03:15:29 AM
Bitcoin is a "roller coaster" partly because it grips your emotions and attention so strongly as it goes up and down. However, I've noticed that after it went over $400, I don't really feel that much anymore. This is probably deeply personal and depends at what price point you bought in at. I'm just wondering if anyone else experienced the same feeling.

Like with any drug, tolerance is a bitch.
1150  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 16, 2013, 10:52:09 PM
might as well ask on here: how do you verify (?pgp key) that the bitcoin qt is legit from bitcoin.org ?

http://bitcoin.org/en/download

notice the .exe is 9mb but in actuality it is 11.1 mb.... did someone alter it?

sirus runs that site, i doubt something odd is going on. (unless hacked)

either way it is unprofessional to state a file is 9 mb and it is actually 11.1mb.  especially to a new user that is getting to know bitcoins

And whining about it in the Speculation subforum will get you nowhere.

File an issue here: https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin.org/issues
1151  Economy / Speculation / Re: What effect will Monday's US Congressional hearing have on price? on: November 16, 2013, 09:22:25 PM
The last huge price rise came along with the FinCEN regulations.

Do not underestimate the desire of Americans to have every part of their life regulated and ruled by their masters in DC.

Speak for yourself.  I'm in the U.S. and I hate all these idiot old men in suits who like to play god.  

+1

With a congressional approval rating of 7%, I don't think most American are too excited by what regulators are doing to our freedoms.
1152  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warren Buffet to buy Bitcoins on: November 15, 2013, 08:13:39 PM
I don't understand why someone in Buffet's position would outright never buy bitcoins. So what if it's risky? If you put 100.000 USD into it, and Bitcoin just collapses, so what? You probably have more money between your coach cussions. It's not like you'll be on the street, dancing for nickles. On the other hand, if Bitcoin goes mainstream big-time, the upside is astronomical. I don't understand this attitude.

Buffet is traditional.  He invests based on economic value of an on-going concern.  He is not a speculator the way bitcoiners are...

This, and he is one of the few big investors that knows when "enough is enough".  He still lives in the same home he bought for under $40k.
1153  Economy / Speculation / Re: I fear a collapse on: November 15, 2013, 04:26:29 PM
Cool, fear. As the Oracle said: "Be greedy when others are fearful." It's only when the last vocal bear gives up that the crash really hits.

FTFY

The bears don't go away, they just bite their tongues and bide their time.  When it is silent they are all preparing their attacks.
1154  Economy / Speculation / Re: Ripple competition on: November 15, 2013, 04:21:09 PM
Let's get one thing straight here. If RippleLabs were to try and "Do anything they want" with the price of XRP as so many of you like to assert, I would be the happiest man on Earth. Why?

Because I would arbitrage the shit out of every single one of their trades and have the single biggest payday that I have or ever will have, in my life.

To top it off, the value of XRP probably wouldn't end up much different than it was originally.

In order to do "anything they want" with XRP, they would have to own a significant amount of every major currency with a strong market against XRP and simultaneously buy and sell these currencies with XRP in order to get the price to stick. But, they wouldn't want to do that because it would entail changing a significant portion of their XRP balance into another currency which in turn would make the XRP price manipulation less worth doing.

 Price manipulation would cost them far more than it would ever earn them and they know it. They aren't stupid people.

They have enough XRP to buy out every ask on every asset.  Not that I think they would, but they could.  If they did, XRP would be worthless.  How exactly are you going to "arbitrage the shit out of" that?  Are you going to sell all your assets at the new high price for the worthless XRP?
1155  Economy / Speculation / Re: the perfect storm? on: November 15, 2013, 04:13:09 PM
what would be really cool are coins which are "sealed" in a way they only open up in a year
maybe some slowly decaying cover-paint and an qr code printed with air reacting paint
sealed in clear glas - if you break it to get the key earlier it would just get lost forever

That is already possible with lock_time transactions. The way you do this is generate a paper wallet normally, then create a raw transaction that sends funds to it (from a freshly funded address that you will not use anymore in the future - this is important) with lock_time set to unix timestamp of one year from now and sign it. With lock_time parameter set, this transaction will be relayable after the this amount of time (you can try to send it to the network, but it will reject it). Then you just print this transaction data as a QR code and put it on a paper wallet as well.

Unfortunately, there are no tools that make this process easy at the moment, but if you're interested I can write in another topic how exactly you can do it by yourself using bitcoind.

Either you don't understand lock_time, or I misunderstand it.

According to https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Protocol_specification#tx lock_time prevents the transaction from being included in a block until the specified block or unix timestamp.  You are indeed preventing the coins from being spent from your paper wallet for a year, but in the mean time the coins can still be spent from the addresses you used as inputs to your locked transaction.

My understanding of the lock_time feature is that it is used to allow you to potentially change a transaction before it is solidified, not to lock some coins into the ether.

Now if you were to also destroy the private keys of any inputs to your transaction, then you could accomplish what you want (provided those keys were secure before you deleted them and there is no chance they could have leaked to someone).
1156  Economy / Speculation / Re: Ripple competition on: November 15, 2013, 07:47:34 AM
So that's what I was saying, I need to check signatures all the way down to possibly the last node in the reachable network to determine if the network is being partitioned, right?
You can get as complex or as simple as you like. If you want to be really lazy, you can just pick a few entities that you know are very unlikely to collude against you and just check if they report that the network isn't partitioned in their validations. There's no point in ever checking the signature on a message whose public key isn't already known to you. So the work you have to do goes up with the number of public keys known to you.

With a small network, there aren't that many validators anyway. With a large network, statistical sampling is more reliable, especially since it's automatically two levels. (You are checking whether a supermajority of the validators you trust see a majority of the validators they trust.) We believe the most reliable topology is a hairball, so we're working on schemes that reliably produce them. You also want to avoid too many validators in the same jurisdiction or of the same type of entity (individual, commercial, non-profit, government).

As a student of graph theory I am wondering if you could describe for me what you mean by a "hairball".  A google for "hairball topology" didn't yield anything except this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hairy_ball_theorem and I don't think that's what you mean.
1157  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will bitcoin hit 2383? on: November 14, 2013, 11:45:43 PM
As good a number as any. Discuss.

Five days ago.

1158  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 14, 2013, 11:20:49 PM

If you actually followed the source wikipedia links to, it says the following:

Quote
I use the term fiat or abstract paper money interchangeably to stand for a government supplied means of payment of no intrinsic worth.

So not even your own source actually supports your claim. It's just Wikipedia messing up.

Not sure why this bothers some of you so much.  There is government fiat, now digital fiat, clam shell fiat, etc, etc.  As freethink just said, fiat isn't necessarily a bad thing.  It's not bad that USD is fiat in that sense.  What's bad about USD is that it is debt based.  It enters the system as debt.  It would actually be nice if the treasury would just issue sovereign money and break capital holders grip on our economy.
Fiat means decree which is the anti-thesis to Bitcoin. That is why it bothers me.

The decree is right here: http://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Everyone here has accepted bitcoin as the implementation of that decree.
No. I have not been told to use Bitcoin. I have chosen to. Thus it is a proposal and not a decree to me.

Fiat means (from the latin since you like etymology) "let there be".  In my mind, that paper fits that meaning quite well.  You are the one adding the forceful connotation to the term.
1159  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 14, 2013, 11:03:36 PM

If you actually followed the source wikipedia links to, it says the following:

Quote
I use the term fiat or abstract paper money interchangeably to stand for a government supplied means of payment of no intrinsic worth.

So not even your own source actually supports your claim. It's just Wikipedia messing up.

Not sure why this bothers some of you so much.  There is government fiat, now digital fiat, clam shell fiat, etc, etc.  As freethink just said, fiat isn't necessarily a bad thing.  It's not bad that USD is fiat in that sense.  What's bad about USD is that it is debt based.  It enters the system as debt.  It would actually be nice if the treasury would just issue sovereign money and break capital holders grip on our economy.
Fiat means decree which is the anti-thesis to Bitcoin. That is why it bothers me.

The decree is right here: http://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Everyone here has accepted bitcoin as the implementation of that decree.
1160  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 14, 2013, 10:39:46 PM

The word "fiat" means a decree or a dictate thus indicating a central authority. This does obviously not apply to Bitcoin or bitcoins and we should thus, in my opinion, avoid linking the word "fiat" with bitcoins.

No, I will not avoid "linking" the word fiat with Bitcoin because that is what Bitcoin or any other currency that has no intrinsic value is. Fiat.  You may not like that and even choose only the definitions that support your position, but it is what it is.  Fiat.
I am not picking definitions at will. Fiat means decree thus indicating central authority. I tried to be polite but:
http://goo.gl/fQX918

And he is using the definition from wikipedia's "Fiat Money" page.  I'm not saying I agree with him, but he already linked to his definition, so linking to a conflicting definition won't get you anywhere.
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