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1141  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 03:55:34 PM
we might be going for a new ATH, I mean its hard for me to believe... but the market shows no sign of weekness, if anything we are getting stronger on the way up.

this either ends very soon, or we will bubble to 1000$

The "bearish divergences" I've been whining about have mostly evaporated.  There is a huge bullish opportunity here if there is enough cash in reserve to drive it a bit higher with volume.
1142  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 03:04:12 PM
HOLY MOLY!!!

i just woke up to this

 Shocked Shocked Shocked

You silly bear Tongue
1143  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 02:17:07 PM
Clarkmoddy and trading.i286 not loading charts for me, is Gox lagging like hell?



Lag: 0.00s
1144  Economy / Economics / Re: How do people think using Mt. Gox is efficient? on: October 19, 2013, 02:06:18 PM
You falsely assume everyone is in the usa, hence high transaction costs and long withdrawal times.

Of course, the majority of MtGox customers are in USA. Why the hell do you need USD, if you are not in USA?

Idk, maybe because global oil trade is denominated primarily in USD?  Or because you live in one of the many countries where the dollar is more highly valued than the local currency.  Or because there is no volume in your local currency and dollars are the most fungible foreign currency? Or...
1145  Economy / Speculation / Re: So who sold below $100 during the SR "crash"? on: October 19, 2013, 01:57:30 PM
Bitstamp's high was 172.00 but Gox is leading the market still, and if Gox surpasses $200 we could see ATH soon, and bitstamp will follow.

Anyway, you could be right but time will tell  Smiley

To me Gox is just its own entity of paper trading. The lack of USD liquidity for Gox customers has not been resolved, and so it's just a sinkhole of value IMO.

The volume indicates there are either fools with lots of money still trading, or a few big fish who have made private arrangements with gox for withdrawals.  I'd bet on the latter.
1146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Explain the current BTC / USD trend. on: October 19, 2013, 01:37:07 PM
Price went up because demand is higher than supply.

All the rest is speculation at best, but mostly just rationalization.

Wish I sold less coins though. :/


Is it possible that demand becomes lower than supply? In the long run, years, unlikely, in the short run it is possible.

I have my hopes on the asic miners. I think it is likely that many of them did not liquidate their btc since most of them until now made huge profits. But I also don't think they reinvested these btc. ASICMINER comes to mind who mostly distributed the btc to stockholders if I am correct. Only part got liquidated for reinvestment and living expenses.

But what will happen when asic miners start to lose money? Can they just keep a big part of their mined btc like before? No, they must liquidate most of them to pay the bills. And if they run at a loss they must even liquidate their stash of btc they have build up.

Fingers crossed.

WRT miners needing to pay costs, keep in mind that even with current difficulty and first gen ASICs, production is around 50x electric costs.  We have a ways to go before they need to sell a significant share to cover ongoing expenses.
1147  Economy / Economics / Re: How do people think using Mt. Gox is efficient? on: October 19, 2013, 04:07:55 AM
Sure, they're probably lured in by this:

But 22 months, the top USD withdraw time, is ridiculous. 22 months from now, the $170 you sold your bitcoin for wouldn't buy five bitcoins on bitstamp. I just want to know; is it simply misinformation that has the Gox's volume so high?

Or maybe some people with big accounts have picked up the phone and asked mtgox to set something up for them.  Then your assumption that nobody can get money out doesn't hold. These big fish are likely making bank on arbitrage, but smaller users have to buy btc to get out.
1148  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market has peaked, sell off incoming. on: October 19, 2013, 02:56:06 AM
The most fun part of the roller coaster is when it gets down. Weak hands might slip away from the wagon.

Also, be cautious, climbing up with your eyes closed makes you not see when it goes downhill.

If you're bullish, when the coaster falls, grab all the coins you can from those who fall off.  One of my longer term scenarios is that this 5 wave structure I've labelled is wave 1 of the 5th wave starting from the initial trades.  Wave 1 ended at 32, wave 3 ended at 266, wave 1 of 5 down, 2-5 to come.  This is of course ultra bullish, but it is a possibility at this time (aka you can count it this way without breaking any of the 3 rules).
1149  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market has peaked, sell off incoming. on: October 19, 2013, 02:47:45 AM

So at what price point are you buying back in based on your projections? - I am assuming your believe we are at the end of a bull market and headed bear for a season or so.

...snip...

So you sold in July (except for your bot) and now you would be happy at $116 but dont expect it to fall there.  Is that what I am supposed to suppose the answer to my question was with that riddle you just put in quotes?

No.... where are you getting that I sold?  In July, I labelled the rally as wave 1 of the 5 wave structure.  That was a bullish call, so I wouldn't have sold.

As I bolded, "I haven't really investigated a target".  If you really want me to, I can pull up some charts, but I'm more of a big picture guy and just sometimes guess at short term wiggles for the fun of it.

In short, my answer is my bot buys back at many levels, but I don't do manual trades on anything smaller than the weekly charts.  The bot is a bit short, but at a price I can live with if we take off from here since it makes money from dampening big swings Wink.
1150  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market has peaked, sell off incoming. on: October 19, 2013, 02:36:35 AM
Cool story bro, head it a thousand times.  I made a prediction in July using this method as one of my tools and it has played out.  The method alone is not perfect, but combined with other tools it helps complete the picture

So at what price point are you buying back in based on your projections? - I am assuming your believe we are at the end of a bull market and headed bear for a season or so.

If the price went down to $116-ish now I'd be so goddamn happy its not even funny.

Me too.  I haven't really investigated a target since I don't trade short term besides my bot, but my gut says $116 is too low.

BTW, we are looking at the count without the background.  Background was the alternate that didn't happen.

Hit the play button: https://www.tradingview.com/v/1WtxlzAv/

Corrections can happen quick in this market.  Only having orders on the books at all times can win you extra btc in this market.
1151  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market has peaked, sell off incoming. on: October 19, 2013, 02:35:55 AM

I know it seems nice to use these simple wave formulas to speculate, but there is much to much going on and way too few bitcoin being traded for us to surmise where this things is headed intermediate term.


Well no shit, this is about sharing potential outcomes and their likelyhoods, not predicting the future.  That is impossible
1152  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market has peaked, sell off incoming. on: October 19, 2013, 02:33:48 AM
That said, now that wave 5 is in progress, Elliot offers nothing other than "keep a tight stop" Tongue.
1153  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market has peaked, sell off incoming. on: October 19, 2013, 02:31:27 AM
Cool story bro, head it a thousand times.  I made a prediction in July using this method as one of my tools and it has played out.  The method alone is not perfect, but combined with other tools it helps complete the picture
1154  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market has peaked, sell off incoming. on: October 19, 2013, 02:23:41 AM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle#Elliott_wave_rules_and_guidelines

Quote
A correct Elliott wave "count" must observe three rules:
Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1.
Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5.
Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle.

Everything else is guidelines, and some apply to bitcoin better than others.  For instance, bitcoin is tiny and illiquid.  It also has highly variable volume, again due to it's small size.  These things must be factored in.  Also, as stated in the "personality" for wave 3, in commodity markets wave 5 outperforms 3 in size and volume.  Bitcoin arguably behaves more like a commodity than a stock.
1155  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market has peaked, sell off incoming. on: October 19, 2013, 01:52:21 AM
If the price went down to $116-ish now I'd be so goddamn happy its not even funny.

Me too.  I haven't really investigated a target since I don't trade short term besides my bot, but my gut says $116 is too low.

BTW, we are looking at the count without the background.  Background was the alternate that didn't happen.

Hit the play button: https://www.tradingview.com/v/1WtxlzAv/
1156  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market has peaked, sell off incoming. on: October 19, 2013, 01:50:36 AM
You're a hater!

Quote
bears may very well be ridiculed

Don't worry, I have plenty of btc.
1157  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market has peaked, sell off incoming. on: October 19, 2013, 01:46:31 AM


We're either completing wave 4 and my count was accurate or we have completed an ABC corrective and will resume the downtrend sometime between here and $147ish.



It may take some time to pick a direction though.

Wave 5 in progress.

Quote
Wave 5: Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received)
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle#Elliott_Wave_personality_and_characteristics
1158  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 01:39:35 AM
We have 5 waves up from $65.  Elliot would say we need an ABC before we can go too much higher, but bitcoin is bitcoin so we may just rocket for the fun of it.  That said, there have been some pretty effective bear raids lately, so there is a chance there may be a few btc to be gained by a well timed sell.
1159  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 12:48:22 AM

Blocked for us USians.
1160  Economy / Economics / Re: Everyone says US can't raise debt ceiling forever. Why? on: October 18, 2013, 09:13:27 PM
it is a pure psychological phenomenon that people suddenly start to worship cat

This whole metaphor depends on there being only 1 dollar and its holder want to buy a cat above all else.... that would be quite the psychological phenomenon.
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