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1141  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish Scenario on: October 07, 2013, 08:06:13 PM
Yup, Silkroad is like the Hydra of Lerna. One down, two new pop up. Government is going to lose this.

The hydra gets it at the end. Don't you think the FBI will utilize the data they got from the SR sever to go after the merchants there?

What data exactly do you are think they recovered?  Nicknames, product lists, public keys and and country seems like about it.

Was pgp mandatory? If not there are at least some postal codes and consumer addresses.

I have no idea, but if they can handle TOR they can handle pgp, and it would be fucking dumb to not use it.

However, if they do recover addresses of recepients, you can bet your ass they will be added to some surveillance lists.  This will help with investigations in the long run if they can get a large enough sample of TOR drug pirchasers to watch.  However, it will be used for to profiling, which always carries the risk of creating prejudice.
1142  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 07, 2013, 07:58:58 PM
Supermax for a skinny nerd who ran an illegal website... Seems logical they would only put Aryan supremacist/murderers/rapists in those kinds of prisons. Not some guy who ran an obscure online drugs marketplace.

Why does being an Aryan supremacist warrant supermax?

You equate bigotry to murder and rape?

Is it not possible for an Aryan supremacist to be a nonviolent noncriminal?

They are not equal, but history shows a very strong correlation.
1143  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish Scenario on: October 07, 2013, 07:53:59 PM
Yup, Silkroad is like the Hydra of Lerna. One down, two new pop up. Government is going to lose this.

The hydra gets it at the end. Don't you think the FBI will utilize the data they got from the SR sever to go after the merchants there?

What data exactly do you are think they recovered?  Nicknames, product lists, public keys and and country seems like about it.
1144  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish Scenario on: October 07, 2013, 06:31:29 PM
so is the Chinese bitcoin "economy" purely speculation? is there anything going on besides mining and exchange?


Bitcoinstore pays its Chinese suppliers in btc.
1145  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish Scenario on: October 07, 2013, 04:21:45 PM
Cant say I've ever found a use for bitcoin aside from buying illegal substances...

Which is why I just like to trade it.

Remittances and internet industries that have a high rate of credit card fraud are two use cases where Bitcoin is hard to beat.
1146  Economy / Economics / Re: FBI seizes Silk Road. BTC backbone broken. on: October 07, 2013, 04:19:39 PM
When I first saw the headlines , I thought this was going to be a big deal. Bitcoin dies have lots of issues, but I don't think this is one if them; maybe a year or two ago when sr was alledgedly a much bigger percentage of bitcoins transactions, but it made it over that hurdle. And the amount of BTC seized is minuscule, will make no difference what government chooses to do with it

Bigger concern was an issue with Tor, which has gained a lot of new users post snowden... They did manage to track down a few of his servers, and scraped a LOT of info there...  

So, bitcoin, fine. The tor network? Very interested in what the experts have to say about this.  

Update: just seeing btcs movements today; again, I think it has a LOT of issues , but this isn't one if them. So the markets behaving like stocks do at times; a rush to the door while assessing damages... Yes, SR was a big player, but fortunately for BTC, lots of other avenues for its use have opened up in the last year+

My opinion. Unsolicited.

They didn't break TOR, he posted on stack exchange asking for help with TOR specific code using his real name.  Once they starting looking at him, it was easy to tie him to SR and then find the servers.

Yes, he posted on stack exchange, and many other forums that contained links to his real identity. But that doesn't explain how they came across two of his actual servers. Those weren't at his house - at least one was in a foreign county. Yet the FBI was able to locate the ISP and image the servers long before they got him. To me that says there's a flaw in Tor that was taken advantage of, along with his own carelessness about his identity that more or less sealed the deal.

Reading his interviews in forbes, I'd always assumed his to be 40's or 50's, and certainly not living in a major us city. Sone rural us locale ? Sure. Australia? Yes. European?

But no, 29 year old kid in San Fran.

Snowdens also 29. This year is the year of the 29 yr old.

But somebody who has to ask on stack exchange how to connect to TOR via curl probably does explain how they found it.  Unless you have a very robust setup with multiple layers, hidden servers are easy to locate by those who can initiate millions of connections to it and see which routers in the world light up like crazy.
1147  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish Scenario on: October 07, 2013, 03:58:23 PM

With Silk Road down Bitcoin now has now no practical use. ...
Never used SR. But I use bitcoin all the time for other things. I could care less about SR and their closing has no effect on my spending habits. If bitcoin were dependent on the decisions of crackheads then it would already be gone.

+1
1148  Economy / Economics / Re: FBI seizes Silk Road. BTC backbone broken. on: October 02, 2013, 09:43:23 PM
As much as this is more of an individual "getting busted" kind of thing, I can't help but feel this is going to be just another piece of FUD opponents of bitcoin will use to say that bitcoin facilitates all kinds of illicit activity.

"SEE! WHAT DID I TELL YOU?! BITCOIN IS BAAAAADD!!!" I hear them cry.
"BITCOIN IS FOR CRIMINALS!! HISSsssSSssSS" I hear them cry some more.

And then you say "Only 0.001% of drug busts involve bitcoin.  The other 99.999% involve the US dollar."  And then they shut up.
1149  Economy / Speculation / Re: Silkroad closed down. Owner Arrested. on: October 02, 2013, 09:40:36 PM
I had sold most of my btc yesterday when the trend was failing but still held some and lost money thanks to some trolls on here posting "the news is fake" , "look at the shadows and the camel", "DPR is making a joke about the government shut down", etc. Fuck you!

Don't blame the forum.  Take responsibility for your actions and stop being gullible enough to trade based on random forum posts.
1150  Economy / Economics / Re: FBI seizes Silk Road. BTC backbone broken. on: October 02, 2013, 09:27:31 PM
When I first saw the headlines , I thought this was going to be a big deal. Bitcoin dies have lots of issues, but I don't think this is one if them; maybe a year or two ago when sr was alledgedly a much bigger percentage of bitcoins transactions, but it made it over that hurdle. And the amount of BTC seized is minuscule, will make no difference what government chooses to do with it

Bigger concern was an issue with Tor, which has gained a lot of new users post snowden... They did manage to track down a few of his servers, and scraped a LOT of info there...  

So, bitcoin, fine. The tor network? Very interested in what the experts have to say about this.  

Update: just seeing btcs movements today; again, I think it has a LOT of issues , but this isn't one if them. So the markets behaving like stocks do at times; a rush to the door while assessing damages... Yes, SR was a big player, but fortunately for BTC, lots of other avenues for its use have opened up in the last year+

My opinion. Unsolicited.

They didn't break TOR, he posted on stack exchange asking for help with TOR specific code using his real name.  Once they starting looking at him, it was easy to tie him to SR and then find the servers.
1151  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bullish scenario on: October 02, 2013, 09:24:26 PM
Heres what I'm thinking, breakout coming, either by busting through resistance, or dropping to lower parallel then busting through !

http://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/2013/10/01/resistance-is-futile/

 I also have a bearish scenario in back of my mind, but hoping won't need that.



You should have let that nagging bear out of hibernation.
1152  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 02, 2013, 09:23:27 PM
imo I would still be cautious.  SR accounted for ~300-400 million in revenue a year for bitcoins.  Much of which was from fresh money being brought in by customers.  I don't know of anything else in the same stratosphere in terms of bringing in money into the network.  SR was/is a big deal.  Will there be other sites to take its place?  Sure.. but to what extent they will fill that void remains to be seen.  Also will customers/vendors of these sites be weary about jumping back into this market?

Bitcoin doesn't earn revenue, and SR was mostly neutral for supply and demand.

Buyers bought btc, sellers sold btc to buy product.

Its just one data point but the amount of BTC seized (26,000 by one media outlet) tells us how much SR was affecting the supply of coin.  In other words, not much.  And this coin may be tied up as evidence for quite some time so its confiscation is not about to affect supply.

However, I would imagine that the SR economy formed a group of people willing to buy and sell at the current price whatever that might be (I'm assuming the drug price is in USD and constantly repriced in BTC, and of course that addicts need for a fix is fairly price insensitive -- but I don't actually know having never been to SR).  So some liquidity may leave the system.


Maybe a small amount... but certainly not $300-400 million worth.
1153  Economy / Speculation / Re: Silkroad closed down. Owner Arrested. on: October 02, 2013, 09:17:53 PM
So the crash was caused by good news?  lol  Smiley

or by huge sales amounts. which i believe can be confiscated wallets as written in the report. why not sell and pay off part of us govt debt?

If they held onto them for a few years, they could pay off the entire national debt with them!

You clearly don't have good comprehension of the liabilities the US government is facing...

Or I'm incredibly bullish!


Pretty bullish to aim for 100 trillion dollars.

Um.... in what world does the USG owe $100 trillion?

And in what world does 26,000 BTC = 1 BTC?
1154  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Is Dropping on BitStamp on: October 02, 2013, 09:13:52 PM
It is so overloaded orders got $5 to $10 slippage Sad

why are you using market orders?

When price is rising from 90 to 120 in 10 minutes the market order is the only way to buy. Unless you know a better way that doesn't involve black magic...

You can always limit order above market price.

That's market order Wink

Unless the low ask is taken before your order hits Wink
1155  Economy / Speculation / Re: My $145 resistance / silk road tinfoil hat conspiracy theory. on: October 02, 2013, 08:59:30 PM
OP was bad enough... now you nut jobs are trying to tie it to the USG shutdown?  WTF?

BTW, the charges were filed on September 27th.
1156  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 02, 2013, 08:48:40 PM
imo I would still be cautious.  SR accounted for ~300-400 million in revenue a year for bitcoins.  Much of which was from fresh money being brought in by customers.  I don't know of anything else in the same stratosphere in terms of bringing in money into the network.  SR was/is a big deal.  Will there be other sites to take its place?  Sure.. but to what extent they will fill that void remains to be seen.  Also will customers/vendors of these sites be weary about jumping back into this market?

Bitcoin doesn't earn revenue, and SR was mostly neutral for supply and demand.

Buyers bought btc, sellers sold btc to buy product.
1157  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Great Silk Road Crash of 20** ...? on: October 02, 2013, 08:44:02 PM
I've always been saying that Bitcoin is backed by SR and gambling. People keep telling me there is some bigger fantasy Bitcoin economy. Now you see.

The fact that a few hours of panic selling by inexperienced traders is enough for you to declare victory is telling.
1158  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Great Silk Road Crash of 20** ...? on: October 02, 2013, 08:41:55 PM
I prefer to sell now and buy more at the bottom.  Holding in a crash is pointless, IMO.

Unless the crash turns into a stiletto Tongue
1159  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 02, 2013, 08:14:34 PM

The handle is ready to fire!



lol

nice try Tongue
1160  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stop panic selling on: October 02, 2013, 08:11:25 PM
They seized a few million in bitcoins, you don't think people here have more than that?
They seems have seized few million WORTH of Bitcoin (in USD value).

I hope they have brains to keep it safe. Maybe then, a few years down the road they will be able to pay up that fiat debt of theirs.

I'm not sure you want the FBI to have enough bitcoins to pay off the entire USG debt.  They are a law enforcement agency and will not give up their bitcoins.  They will use them to wield their influence.  Much of what they do is good, but with things like N-DEx they are an NSA wannabe with a data access security hole the size of every police department in the US.

You're all assuming the dread Pirate did not have a self destruct in place. It would be nice if he had, especially for the customers.

My comment stands on its own without such assumptions.  A dead mans switch is possible, but it does not change the fact that the USG will not be paying down debt with funds seized by the FBI.
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