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1141  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 07:27:37 PM
Status update? What is happening here? You can't move btc to gox or out?

I would guess that it is all synced up by now.
1142  Economy / Speculation / Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues on: October 19, 2013, 06:47:30 PM
Log vs. Linear doesn't change the wave structure, but sometimes changing the axis can make it a little easier to recognize the structure.  For long term, there really isn't much option but log or percentage since otherwise everything before 8 months ago is flat on a linear scale.
1143  Economy / Speculation / Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues on: October 19, 2013, 06:31:55 PM
Hmmm, could that be the long-awaited correction?

I doubt it. If it is, I'll be very disappointed. It came too soon, and was too small, to count as a legitimate correction, IMO.

That was A.  Soon we'll have the upmove for B, then C down.  C should extend 1.6 times as far as A.  But then again, this is bitcoin, so anything can happen.

Where were the upward waves? I just see one big upward movement, TBH.

The only charts that ever seem to move in elliot waves to me are traditional forex charts. Anything that is more news/speculation affected seems to just trend until some news happens, or just generally act ballistic like Bitcoin.

We have completed wave 5 off the $65 bottom.  This 5 wave structure, IMO, is wave 1 of the all time 5th wave.  Wave 1 ended at $32, 3 at $266, and we are starting wave 5.  After a decent correction, we will have wave 3 up that should be larger than wave 1.  This is, of course, only one possible scenario.  I can't predict the future.
1144  Economy / Speculation / Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues on: October 19, 2013, 06:21:38 PM
Hmmm, could that be the long-awaited correction?

I doubt it. If it is, I'll be very disappointed. It came too soon, and was too small, to count as a legitimate correction, IMO.

That was A.  Soon we'll have the upmove for B, then C down.  C should extend 1.6 times as far as A.  But then again, this is bitcoin, so anything can happen.
1145  Economy / Speculation / Re: BITSTAMP eXchange wall Observer. second biggest and best exchange on: October 19, 2013, 05:36:58 PM
Stamp is an absolute madhouse of back and forth market orders right now:



I really need to port my bot over to work on stamp as well as gox.
1146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 05:12:06 PM
Also, I doubt they are using bitcoin-qt... I'm not sure where kazu got that from.

Quote
[22:33] <@MagicalTux> samson_: downloading new blocks as fast as bitcoind can

bitcoind != bitcoin-qt, but whatever.... also, just because they use bitcoind to handle the networking and blockchain doesn't mean that bitcoind has the only copy of the data and the only codepaths that can work with said data.

Actually they are the exact same thing. QT just contains what is effectively a GUI wrapper.

Since I am a programmer by trade, the difference seems pretty large to me, but I fully understand that under the hood they have the same engine.  But bitcoin-qt has a lot more code, and has a much larger attack surface.
What are you going to attack on Bitcoin-QT that you can't attack on Bitcoind? The connection to the Bitcoin network is by far the most vulnerable place in both, and they happen to run essentially the same code.

The GUI code....  Yes, networking absolutely demands the tightest security and cleanest code, but that's exactly why most vulnerabilities are found in less important code.  It does not have as much attention paid to it.  Once you can execute arbitrary code, you can do anything you want with the network code or wallet code.  Hopefully the user doesn't unlock their wallet Wink.
1147  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 05:08:47 PM
That is a good example of a possible fallback they could implement, as I suggested.
Yes. I'm curious, though, how they manage to do that with an extended downtime on their node. Do they route all incoming deposits directly to cold storage or do they route incoming deposits to the hot wallet and only move some of it to cold storage when it gets too big?

I don't know how they route deposits and handle cold/hot wallet balances.  They should also be able to fall back to other methods for checking on deposits.  They know the addresses.  I don't know if they have the keys for deposit address though without bitcoind, so they might not be able to move the coins.  It would be interesting to see the details of their setup.  A lot could probably be gleaned by a thorough examination of the blockchain given some known deposit addresses and withdrawal origin addresses.
1148  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 05:03:21 PM
Also, I doubt they are using bitcoin-qt... I'm not sure where kazu got that from.

Quote
[22:33] <@MagicalTux> samson_: downloading new blocks as fast as bitcoind can

bitcoind != bitcoin-qt, but whatever.... also, just because they use bitcoind to handle the networking and blockchain doesn't mean that bitcoind has the only copy of the data and the only codepaths that can work with said data.

Actually they are the exact same thing. QT just contains what is effectively a GUI wrapper.

Since I am a programmer by trade, the difference seems pretty large to me, but I fully understand that under the hood they have the same engine.  But bitcoin-qt has a lot more code, and has a much larger attack surface.
1149  Economy / Speculation / Re: How far you think Bitcoin will go?! on: October 19, 2013, 05:01:03 PM
I was coming up with something like $10,000 a piece with 30% penetration of internet commerce.... but then I was forecasting difficulty 6 months ahead to now and getting about 150M as "worst case" LOL

Don't forget that bitcoins can be spent multiple times.... I pay you for a chocolate bar, you buy a newspaper, the newpaper company buys some paper, and the paper company buys some chemicals.  If you are looking at yearly sales, that volume can be done with much less btc than sales/(btc supply).  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money
1150  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 04:56:54 PM
They give you the transaction id when you withdrawal, which means the transaction has to be created and signed.  It is later broadcast on the network.  There is always some delay, but with the outage the delay was longer than normal.
In that case they should just route the transaction through: http://blockchain.info/pushtx

That is a good example of a possible fallback they could implement, as I suggested.
1151  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 04:54:43 PM
Also, I doubt they are using bitcoin-qt... I'm not sure where kazu got that from.

Quote
[22:33] <@MagicalTux> samson_: downloading new blocks as fast as bitcoind can

bitcoind != bitcoin-qt, but whatever.... also, just because they use bitcoind to handle the networking and blockchain doesn't mean that bitcoind has the only copy of the data and the only codepaths that can work with said data.
1152  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 04:53:09 PM
I'm just saying that all they need is the network communication code to be able to broadcast the withdrawal transactions, and they should have redundancy in their setup in case a bug is triggered in one client or a server goes down.  Also, I doubt they are using bitcoin-qt... I'm not sure where kazu got that from.
Their problem is that their wallet and their blockchain database and their network code are all in one package, so they can't generate transactions because they don't know which outputs they have to spend.

Once those three things get separated it become a lot easier. If you've still got a working blockchain database, and you are keeping track of which outputs you've spend and which you haven't, then you can generate the transaction manually and use the pushtx feature on blockchain.info to broadcast it if need be.

That's not true.  They give you the transaction id when you withdrawal, which means the transaction has to be created and signed.  It is later broadcast on the network.  There is always some delay, but with the outage the delay was longer than normal.
1153  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 04:45:07 PM
They should also have several fallbacks.  They already generate and sign the transactions with their own code, so they just need to broadcast it.  Any client can do that.
These alternate implementations do things like separate the blockchain management from the network communication from the wallet.

It means you can do things set up clustering on the various pieces for better performance and load balancing.

You know, grown-up software stuff.

I understand that.  I'm just saying that all they need is the network communication code to be able to broadcast the withdrawal transactions, and they should have redundancy in their setup in case a bug is triggered in one client or a server goes down.  Also, I doubt they are using bitcoin-qt... I'm not sure where kazu got that from.
1154  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 04:28:59 PM
[22:33] <@MagicalTux> samson_: downloading new blocks as fast as bitcoind can
Services needing high uptime should really look at switching to one of the alternate implementations (Bits of Proof or btcd).

The Satoshi client is a prototype, not an engineered final product.

They should also have several fallbacks.  They already generate and sign the transactions with their own code, so they just need to broadcast it.  Any client can do that.

Perhaps when the coins become available the asks might fill in a bit on the various exchanges.
1155  Economy / Speculation / Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues on: October 19, 2013, 04:17:58 PM
A correction would make reasonable sense and would be healthy for the market. Permabears would scream victory before shutting up as it climbs again.

We could use a good, strong, ABC correction, but I doubt the bulls will let such an opportunity pass for long.
1156  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen. on: October 19, 2013, 04:14:53 PM
perhaps the curse has lifted?
1157  Economy / Speculation / Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues on: October 19, 2013, 04:07:39 PM
just wanted to start a thread about this

it will be a good buy opportunity!

place your bids

only 2 days higher than today Smiley

and one of those days, we also hit 105 Wink
1158  Economy / Speculation / Re: Looking for ANOTHER chart! on: October 19, 2013, 03:59:23 PM
www.tradingview.com

input "1/BTCUSD"
launch chart
1159  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 03:55:34 PM
we might be going for a new ATH, I mean its hard for me to believe... but the market shows no sign of weekness, if anything we are getting stronger on the way up.

this either ends very soon, or we will bubble to 1000$

The "bearish divergences" I've been whining about have mostly evaporated.  There is a huge bullish opportunity here if there is enough cash in reserve to drive it a bit higher with volume.
1160  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 03:04:12 PM
HOLY MOLY!!!

i just woke up to this

 Shocked Shocked Shocked

You silly bear Tongue
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