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1141  Economy / Speculation / Re: This Doesn't Feel Like A Bubble To Me on: October 24, 2013, 12:55:26 AM
If we get 8 more upward candlesticks, with some of them being larger than any we saw in April, then like I said, that would now put us in the early stages of a bubble.
Yeah no shit, you haven't got a spade unless it's at least a queen, and she must be smilling and attractive otherwise it doesn't count.

No, what you have right now in your hand is "high volatility." No more no less.

Historically, volatility (as measured by standard deviation) is still very low on the weekly chart.  Daily's not even too bad yet Tongue.
1142  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 23, 2013, 11:26:32 PM
Still less than 10% down to stamp. China follows. Looks sound.

When we pass all time high, every fucking lowly newspaper in the world will have an article about it.

Could be true, so if someone wants price down he needs to dump at max $250 without ATH. Right?

Why would anyone want to do that? Self-sacrifice?

Why would anyone want high price now? Why not hoarding for a year or two in the $50 - $200 range? Just a thought.

We already hoarded at the $3 to $7 range?

ding ding ding, we have a winner
1143  Economy / Speculation / Re: I figure that swapping bitcoin for silver is a good buy on: October 23, 2013, 11:25:43 PM
And in my country silver bars can't be confiscated at a whim, I live in the EU, which is still not a police state.

That's what people in the US thought... until it was confiscated along with gold in 1933.
1144  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will October's bubble burst? on: October 23, 2013, 11:08:57 PM
I know traders posses skills and knowledge that I do not. But I also know there's some randomness in the mix. How much of trading success is due to skill vs. randomness? I think statistics dictates that if there are 1,000 traders of equal skill, a small percentage will do extremely well, simply due to being on the extreme edge of a probability curve -- in other words, some of those who look like geniuses will really just have benefitted from luck. So how does one know if a trader's success is due superior skill or just plain old luck? And how does one know the trading tactics that worked well before will work again, when a much larger set of skilled traders may now be competing with them?

I'm long BTC, and while I buy on dips, I have yet to sell to take profits. I assume I might sell a portion of BTC at some level, but I'm certainly not knowledgeable to actively trade.

You don't know... until your luck runs out.
1145  Economy / Speculation / Re: How nervous are you about another crash? on: October 23, 2013, 11:04:39 PM
I love crashes!  Bring it on!
1146  Economy / Economics / Re: Viability of centrally issued P2P Cryptocurrency - best answers tipped! on: October 23, 2013, 03:20:43 PM
It really makes me want to take you seriously.

I don't need you. Less arrogant people who are capable of taking the presented model seriously can step in. I'm not sure such are using this forum any more though.

Pot, meet kettle.
1147  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - China wall movement tracker on: October 23, 2013, 03:19:22 PM
This rally being China-driven is very frustrating considering how volatile movement has been on Chinese exchanges... such thin market depth is really hard to read. I am worried about the virtually non-existent bid support.

If it is "China-driven", why are USD exchanges making new highs while CNY exchanges consolidate?
1148  Economy / Speculation / Re: The boat is long gone on: October 23, 2013, 03:04:37 PM
oda.krell, I hope you are long now. The drop that marked the end of the second sub-sub-wave of the second sub-wave of wave B was overturned by whales.
There should have been at least a 10$ drop, but the whales didn't wait for it to end and bought. That's on Gox.
I believe we are going to see the third sub-sub-wave of wave B, and only after that we go down.

Is that the TA formulation for "oops, I was wrong"?

Because all I read is

Correct.  Tzupy prefers blaming others to admitting he can't see the future.
1149  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 22, 2013, 03:35:06 PM
I like to hope that the bears in this kind of market sustain enough losses that their power to irrationally drive it down is greatly diluted. I suppose corrections are natural, but it's nice to have a collective sense of confidence when the smart ones know it's going up no matter the short-term obstacles. I guess the new money have to get their coins from someone.

Bears will be burned, but remember that they are the only thing keeping this from overshooting too far to the upside.  When we overshoot, we correct much harder and then the bears have a field day (or month, or year).
1150  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 22, 2013, 03:14:47 PM
well i don't daytrade but i think it is good that people do, it provides liquidity

if every just kept their btc under their mattress (print out of private key), then there would be no chance for anyone new to get their hands on some

And that's why I run my market making it even though at times like this I slowly bleed coins.  Sure , I could shut it off, but then the rally would get unsustainable more quickly.
1151  Economy / Speculation / Re: 200 on: October 22, 2013, 03:12:20 PM
Can they get their flat out from that exchange?
MtGox doesn't really count because it's inflated.
What I mean is you cannot get flat out of MtGox, which means the price is irrelevant. It can goto $1000000 on there, but it won't matter because you won't be able to get it out. Best to just ignore MtGox.

Y'all are retarded.
(1) MtGox doesn't count cuz it's inflated - are you talking about how the spread has been ~10% between various exchanges for iunno, the last 6 months and longer if you consider different exchanges? Stop whining and get over it already. The amount of focus on this is astounding... Sure if it were $1000000 blah blah blah but IT'S FUCKING NOT, it's been roughly 10% higher than stamp for as long as most of your n00b memories go back. It's not 50% higher, it's not 200% higher, heck, it's not even LEADING the rally time-wise if you overlay the price charts! It's an artifact of reduced arb abilities and a few other factors.
(2) If you live in Japan, or if you are rich, you can easily get your fiat out of MtGox. There is a lot of wealth in Japan and there is a lot of wealth in the world. Anyone who says "You can't get fiat out of Gox" is flat out lying. Sure, it's harder than at the other exchanges, but it's not an impossibility, and stating it as such is misleading.
(3) CNY was over $200 equiv

Now, I hate Gox as much as the next guy. But we went over $200. Still, feel free to ruin the celebration with your mindless drivel! Party poopers.  Grin Grin Grin

Their attitude will influence their trades and the market will teach them.
1152  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - China wall movement tracker on: October 22, 2013, 03:03:50 PM
Moving again, guess they decided the Bitcoin fairy wasn't going to come back and shower them with more cheap coins Smiley

IMO in 2 - 3 hours btcnCNY will decide if the uptrend continues, or it crashes hard again. My guess is it will crash hard.

I hope your right.  My primary count has this last run up as wave 5 off the $65 bottom.  I'm not yet convinced it is over, but when it is we should have a sizable ABC.
1153  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 22, 2013, 02:57:01 PM
It's certainly possible to make additional profit trading, and despite the many losers there are always some winners. It seems to me, though, that the average person would be satisfied with Bitcoin-level annual gains if they believe it has a future, or if they understand and agree with the idea that Bitcoin is a heavily asymmetric bet. If you believe Bitcoin has a good chance of going mainstream, you believe you've been privileged to identify the investment opportunity of the century in the form of simply buying and holding.

Of course "you can always have more," but is it really that people are so easily looking this gift horse in the mouth, or is it something else? It seems to me that such a ready desire to increase the risk is more a sign of not really grasping Bitcoin's potential. It seems the mentality is to "get while the getting's good" because Bitcoin may not work out. I suppose everyone's had that thought at some point: "Bitcoin may eventually get squashed out of existence by governments or hackers, but I bet I can ride this train for one or two big jumps and cash out enough to live on." With that fearful mindset it becomes appealing to try to boost your gains since you don't know if you intend to see where this ride goes, and you don't really know if you believe it could ever reach $10,000 or $100,000 per coin.

And really, that's fine. Not everyone is a visionary, and this isn't a religion. Moreover, some bitcoin holders are experienced traders and would only risk small portions of their stash. But the tendency for so many people to so readily engage in such notoriously treacherous trading trying to catch price movements seems like it is a problem of lack of education or thought about Bitcoin's potential, including perhaps deep understanding of economics and technology adoption and otherwise whow deeply broken the establishment systems are and what circumnavigating them means for the global standard of living, etc.

Well said.
1154  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 22, 2013, 03:17:55 AM
1) Have trustworthy friends.
2) Make sure some of them reside on different continents than you.
3) Keep your savings in an m-of-n output, where the cooperation of one or more of your friends is needed to spend them.
4) You are now protected from rubber hose cryptography.

But that doesn't protect you from rubber hoses Sad
1155  Economy / Speculation / Re: Recent events in pictures. on: October 22, 2013, 01:20:35 AM
Good explanation of one factor currently affecting the market.
1156  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why the sudden price rise? on: October 22, 2013, 01:18:05 AM
look at the stock market. go and try to make some serious money by trading against the traders. you will lose most of the time. they have the faster machines, better information, more money etc. same thing will happen with bitcoins. people are working day and night to find a way to steal your money. its just a matter of time.
So day-trading on the stock market now equates to theft?   Huh

I am not angry at all. the hype sickens me. this isnt investing. this is flat out gambling.
Why does the hype sicken you, and why do you care?  Why do you care if people are "gambling" (in your opinion) with their money?

yes day trading is theft. have you ever seen a stock pounded right into nothing from people shorting it? day traders will suck the life out of any stock. whereas the people who have put sweat equity into their live saving and pensions or 401ks get nothing. is that fair?
high frequency trading is just as bad. flat out theft. the average investor has absolutley no chance against it.
What is the fundamental difference between day trading and other forms of investing in which the investor intends only to make a profit from other people, other than the time frame? That one is more successful? That doesn't seem like a significant  ethical difference to me.

Not only is shorting harder to pull off in most markets, without shorting bubbles would happen a lot more often.  Would that really be good for the company?
1157  Economy / Economics / Re: Viability of centrally issued P2P Cryptocurrency - best answers tipped! on: October 21, 2013, 10:38:27 PM
Centralization means single point of failure.  Why would I want a less robust cryptocurrency?
Either you didn't read my post or didn't understand it. Part of the currency storage is centralized - nothing else, so users will be better off if that point fails completely. Until it fails, it means more robust cryptocurrency compared to completely non-centralized minting such as everything on the market.


Yeah, no.

I trust math.  I don't trust the state.  Failure could mean many things, including flooding the market with their premined coins.  But keep gloating about being so clever.  It really makes me want to take you seriously.
1158  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 21, 2013, 10:36:45 PM
Yeah, I wouldn't put too much hope in that article, I am pretty confident it is mostly just a reaction of the body to aging (an effect instead of the cause).  Articles about "the one magic compound or pill that controls aging" are just selling stories. Nevertheless, aging IS curable, imo the best effort out there is SENS : .

Sorry for going off-topic, but I have some strong opinions on the matter, and I am hoping somewhat that some of the brighter out-of-the-box thinkers that you might find here might become intrigued by this as well  Smiley .

That's exactly what this research is... they were trying to improve the methods of measuring aging, not trying to find the cause.
1159  Economy / Speculation / Re: How to predict crash? on: October 21, 2013, 10:35:24 PM
there are also fibonacci retracements...

How accurate is that? Have you used them in the past?

well... some people say that the 61.8 or the 38.2 fib act as resistance/support...  the 61.8 fib on bitstamp is at 177 and mtgox is 183, and we are over both of them.

but then again this market is really f--ked up so who knows, we could be pissing into the wind and not know it

What's the difference between bitcoin market and other markets? Why is that fucked up?

Bitcoin is tiny compared to most markets.  This results in way more volatility and way less liquidity.
1160  Economy / Economics / Re: Everyone says US can't raise debt ceiling forever. Why? on: October 21, 2013, 10:33:38 PM
Europe would be shaken to shit if the USD failed and Asia's exports would take a big hit, hell, it would probably start a world war but its more or less inevitable. The US got left behind, they don't make enough of anything anyone wants to balance out their consumption of what the world has to sell and the longer that imbalance goes on the further they will have to fall. Maybe there's still some of those entrepreneurs and innovators that made the USA the great nation around and one of them can pull a rabbit out of the hat and make the USA the place to go for flying cars or personal spacecraft or something... and get slapped down with a 20 year patent lawsuit.

Exactly.  I have notebooks full of ideas that never got anywhere because of regulations and patents.  Our system allows trivial things to be patented, and they are only tested for triviality if someone has the funds to take the patent holder to court.  Where patents can't keep out competition, regulations abound.
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