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1141  Economy / Speculation / Re: BITSTAMP eXchange wall Observer. second biggest and best exchange on: October 19, 2013, 05:36:58 PM
Stamp is an absolute madhouse of back and forth market orders right now:



I really need to port my bot over to work on stamp as well as gox.
1142  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 05:12:06 PM
Also, I doubt they are using bitcoin-qt... I'm not sure where kazu got that from.

Quote
[22:33] <@MagicalTux> samson_: downloading new blocks as fast as bitcoind can

bitcoind != bitcoin-qt, but whatever.... also, just because they use bitcoind to handle the networking and blockchain doesn't mean that bitcoind has the only copy of the data and the only codepaths that can work with said data.

Actually they are the exact same thing. QT just contains what is effectively a GUI wrapper.

Since I am a programmer by trade, the difference seems pretty large to me, but I fully understand that under the hood they have the same engine.  But bitcoin-qt has a lot more code, and has a much larger attack surface.
What are you going to attack on Bitcoin-QT that you can't attack on Bitcoind? The connection to the Bitcoin network is by far the most vulnerable place in both, and they happen to run essentially the same code.

The GUI code....  Yes, networking absolutely demands the tightest security and cleanest code, but that's exactly why most vulnerabilities are found in less important code.  It does not have as much attention paid to it.  Once you can execute arbitrary code, you can do anything you want with the network code or wallet code.  Hopefully the user doesn't unlock their wallet Wink.
1143  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 05:08:47 PM
That is a good example of a possible fallback they could implement, as I suggested.
Yes. I'm curious, though, how they manage to do that with an extended downtime on their node. Do they route all incoming deposits directly to cold storage or do they route incoming deposits to the hot wallet and only move some of it to cold storage when it gets too big?

I don't know how they route deposits and handle cold/hot wallet balances.  They should also be able to fall back to other methods for checking on deposits.  They know the addresses.  I don't know if they have the keys for deposit address though without bitcoind, so they might not be able to move the coins.  It would be interesting to see the details of their setup.  A lot could probably be gleaned by a thorough examination of the blockchain given some known deposit addresses and withdrawal origin addresses.
1144  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 05:03:21 PM
Also, I doubt they are using bitcoin-qt... I'm not sure where kazu got that from.

Quote
[22:33] <@MagicalTux> samson_: downloading new blocks as fast as bitcoind can

bitcoind != bitcoin-qt, but whatever.... also, just because they use bitcoind to handle the networking and blockchain doesn't mean that bitcoind has the only copy of the data and the only codepaths that can work with said data.

Actually they are the exact same thing. QT just contains what is effectively a GUI wrapper.

Since I am a programmer by trade, the difference seems pretty large to me, but I fully understand that under the hood they have the same engine.  But bitcoin-qt has a lot more code, and has a much larger attack surface.
1145  Economy / Speculation / Re: How far you think Bitcoin will go?! on: October 19, 2013, 05:01:03 PM
I was coming up with something like $10,000 a piece with 30% penetration of internet commerce.... but then I was forecasting difficulty 6 months ahead to now and getting about 150M as "worst case" LOL

Don't forget that bitcoins can be spent multiple times.... I pay you for a chocolate bar, you buy a newspaper, the newpaper company buys some paper, and the paper company buys some chemicals.  If you are looking at yearly sales, that volume can be done with much less btc than sales/(btc supply).  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money
1146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 04:56:54 PM
They give you the transaction id when you withdrawal, which means the transaction has to be created and signed.  It is later broadcast on the network.  There is always some delay, but with the outage the delay was longer than normal.
In that case they should just route the transaction through: http://blockchain.info/pushtx

That is a good example of a possible fallback they could implement, as I suggested.
1147  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 04:54:43 PM
Also, I doubt they are using bitcoin-qt... I'm not sure where kazu got that from.

Quote
[22:33] <@MagicalTux> samson_: downloading new blocks as fast as bitcoind can

bitcoind != bitcoin-qt, but whatever.... also, just because they use bitcoind to handle the networking and blockchain doesn't mean that bitcoind has the only copy of the data and the only codepaths that can work with said data.
1148  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 04:53:09 PM
I'm just saying that all they need is the network communication code to be able to broadcast the withdrawal transactions, and they should have redundancy in their setup in case a bug is triggered in one client or a server goes down.  Also, I doubt they are using bitcoin-qt... I'm not sure where kazu got that from.
Their problem is that their wallet and their blockchain database and their network code are all in one package, so they can't generate transactions because they don't know which outputs they have to spend.

Once those three things get separated it become a lot easier. If you've still got a working blockchain database, and you are keeping track of which outputs you've spend and which you haven't, then you can generate the transaction manually and use the pushtx feature on blockchain.info to broadcast it if need be.

That's not true.  They give you the transaction id when you withdrawal, which means the transaction has to be created and signed.  It is later broadcast on the network.  There is always some delay, but with the outage the delay was longer than normal.
1149  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 04:45:07 PM
They should also have several fallbacks.  They already generate and sign the transactions with their own code, so they just need to broadcast it.  Any client can do that.
These alternate implementations do things like separate the blockchain management from the network communication from the wallet.

It means you can do things set up clustering on the various pieces for better performance and load balancing.

You know, grown-up software stuff.

I understand that.  I'm just saying that all they need is the network communication code to be able to broadcast the withdrawal transactions, and they should have redundancy in their setup in case a bug is triggered in one client or a server goes down.  Also, I doubt they are using bitcoin-qt... I'm not sure where kazu got that from.
1150  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 04:28:59 PM
[22:33] <@MagicalTux> samson_: downloading new blocks as fast as bitcoind can
Services needing high uptime should really look at switching to one of the alternate implementations (Bits of Proof or btcd).

The Satoshi client is a prototype, not an engineered final product.

They should also have several fallbacks.  They already generate and sign the transactions with their own code, so they just need to broadcast it.  Any client can do that.

Perhaps when the coins become available the asks might fill in a bit on the various exchanges.
1151  Economy / Speculation / Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues on: October 19, 2013, 04:17:58 PM
A correction would make reasonable sense and would be healthy for the market. Permabears would scream victory before shutting up as it climbs again.

We could use a good, strong, ABC correction, but I doubt the bulls will let such an opportunity pass for long.
1152  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen. on: October 19, 2013, 04:14:53 PM
perhaps the curse has lifted?
1153  Economy / Speculation / Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues on: October 19, 2013, 04:07:39 PM
just wanted to start a thread about this

it will be a good buy opportunity!

place your bids

only 2 days higher than today Smiley

and one of those days, we also hit 105 Wink
1154  Economy / Speculation / Re: Looking for ANOTHER chart! on: October 19, 2013, 03:59:23 PM
www.tradingview.com

input "1/BTCUSD"
launch chart
1155  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 03:55:34 PM
we might be going for a new ATH, I mean its hard for me to believe... but the market shows no sign of weekness, if anything we are getting stronger on the way up.

this either ends very soon, or we will bubble to 1000$

The "bearish divergences" I've been whining about have mostly evaporated.  There is a huge bullish opportunity here if there is enough cash in reserve to drive it a bit higher with volume.
1156  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 03:04:12 PM
HOLY MOLY!!!

i just woke up to this

 Shocked Shocked Shocked

You silly bear Tongue
1157  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 19, 2013, 02:17:07 PM
Clarkmoddy and trading.i286 not loading charts for me, is Gox lagging like hell?



Lag: 0.00s
1158  Economy / Economics / Re: How do people think using Mt. Gox is efficient? on: October 19, 2013, 02:06:18 PM
You falsely assume everyone is in the usa, hence high transaction costs and long withdrawal times.

Of course, the majority of MtGox customers are in USA. Why the hell do you need USD, if you are not in USA?

Idk, maybe because global oil trade is denominated primarily in USD?  Or because you live in one of the many countries where the dollar is more highly valued than the local currency.  Or because there is no volume in your local currency and dollars are the most fungible foreign currency? Or...
1159  Economy / Speculation / Re: So who sold below $100 during the SR "crash"? on: October 19, 2013, 01:57:30 PM
Bitstamp's high was 172.00 but Gox is leading the market still, and if Gox surpasses $200 we could see ATH soon, and bitstamp will follow.

Anyway, you could be right but time will tell  Smiley

To me Gox is just its own entity of paper trading. The lack of USD liquidity for Gox customers has not been resolved, and so it's just a sinkhole of value IMO.

The volume indicates there are either fools with lots of money still trading, or a few big fish who have made private arrangements with gox for withdrawals.  I'd bet on the latter.
1160  Economy / Speculation / Re: Explain the current BTC / USD trend. on: October 19, 2013, 01:37:07 PM
Price went up because demand is higher than supply.

All the rest is speculation at best, but mostly just rationalization.

Wish I sold less coins though. :/


Is it possible that demand becomes lower than supply? In the long run, years, unlikely, in the short run it is possible.

I have my hopes on the asic miners. I think it is likely that many of them did not liquidate their btc since most of them until now made huge profits. But I also don't think they reinvested these btc. ASICMINER comes to mind who mostly distributed the btc to stockholders if I am correct. Only part got liquidated for reinvestment and living expenses.

But what will happen when asic miners start to lose money? Can they just keep a big part of their mined btc like before? No, they must liquidate most of them to pay the bills. And if they run at a loss they must even liquidate their stash of btc they have build up.

Fingers crossed.

WRT miners needing to pay costs, keep in mind that even with current difficulty and first gen ASICs, production is around 50x electric costs.  We have a ways to go before they need to sell a significant share to cover ongoing expenses.
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