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1141  Economy / Economics / Re: Wouldn't all the bitcoin eventually become unreachable on: October 30, 2013, 03:57:32 AM
This could be considered one of bitcoin negatives as they are destructible in a sense.  However at a certain far of point in the future you can always attempt to brute force the private key so they aren't forever lost.

If a weakness is found in ecdsa, you still need the public key, which is only known if coins have been spent from that address before.
1142  Economy / Economics / Re: Wouldn't all the bitcoin eventually become unreachable on: October 30, 2013, 03:46:38 AM

I wonder why you didn't quote this part:

Because the part from the FAQ I just pasted confirms the actual question the OP posted, I guess. But your addition is interesting as well of course.

Yes, you confirmed the question, but questions are usually after answers, which is what edd provided.
1143  Economy / Speculation / Re: Goomboo's Journal on: October 29, 2013, 05:50:51 PM
Daily traders should be sitting on an unrealized profit of around 51% or $70 per coin.  As always: be skeptical of unrealized profits.

Hi Goomboo

Thank you for the topic, it is very informative. I was wondering, what do you mean by 'be skeptical of unrealized profits'? Should I understand it as 'be weary of daily traders going into profit taking mode'? Or something else?

Basically, it's not a profit until you've sold and the fiat is in your pocket

Right.  Goomboo approaches trading from the viewpoint of investing USD for USD profits.  This gives him good profit over the long term, with lower risk than those investing for BTC profits.  Those traders are essentially compounding their profits, which can grow you investment capital, but from the USD prospective, those gains are at risk.
1144  Economy / Speculation / Re: Qoheleth's strategy on: October 29, 2013, 05:14:19 PM
They run away from success and towards failure.
How so?

You are always trading against the trend, so you miss a good amount of the action on big moves.  However, for many people, stability of wealth is more important than compounding growth.  Each of these groups define success differently, and that's okay.
1145  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming? on: October 29, 2013, 04:32:38 PM
Seeing as how the transaction was settled before the 3 day old press release, I wouldn't count on a dump.
1146  Economy / Economics / Re: Why bitcoin isn't currency. on: October 29, 2013, 01:38:18 AM
Do you see your equation?

1 bitcoin = 1 bitcoin  is like saying this

1 inch = 1 inch
1 pound = 1 pound
1 byte = 1 byte.

That is not how units work! The are all equal to something that is objectively real.

If that is sound reasoning I must be fucked in the head. 

I'm currently in my third year of a Chemistry-Physics degree, so I'm actually quite familiar with units. Don't worry, you're not fucked in the head, your reasoning is just slightly off.

Let me give you an example of a time when we made a change to our definition of a very common unit:

The metre, a well know unit of measurement, was once defined by a standard platinum bar. The bar was created to act as the universally agreed upon definition of 1 metre, and was therefore by definition exactly one metre long. This was consistent to within a certain degree, but of course changes in e.g. temperature/pressure could in fact cause the length to vary slightly. Parameters were introduced to improve the consistency (specific temperature and pressure at which the length of the bar would considered to be exactly one metre) but unfortunately, using a physical object to act as a benchmark can never be as accurate as the scientific community would like.

It was therefore decided that we should redefine the metre, without using a physical object. Einstein had shown, in his theory of relativity, that the speed of light is in fact a universal constant when measured within the same medium. It therefore made sense to redefine the metre in terms of this unchanging physical constant. Our definition of the metre is now 'The length of the path travelled by light in a vacuum in 1⁄299,792,458 of a second'

Your idea that units must be 'equal to something that is objectively real', while it may seem somewhat intuitive, is actually a slight misunderstanding. The fact that it is so difficult to find consistency in objective reality is what makes the task of measuring things so tricky.

Back to Bitcoin:

Bitcoin is actually a great starting point if we want to define a system of measurement for value. What we are effectively doing is defining a standard unit of value, i.e. 1 bitcoin, which can act as a universal constant similar to the speed of light in the example above. Now we have our benchmark (which doesn't fluctuate due to changes in temperature/pressure etc.), and we can start to decide how to value everything else in comparison to it. (notice that making measurements always boils down to making comparisons between things)

Of course, being so new, and being introduced to a society who are so used to valuing things in a different way (namely whichever fiat currency they grew up with), make things more complicated (as well as a million other things, economics can't really be compared with science due to the numerous factors to consider, but we're talking about units here). We are still in price discovery phase with people having to shift their perspectives and adjust. It is yet to be seen whether or not the population as a whole will accept this new measurement system.

The problem of making measurements and defining units is and always had been at the heart of the scientific discipline. Its an interesting subject, and there's a great deal of understanding to be gained by studying it in a bit more depth.


This.  Bitcoin is a proposal for a unit that anyone can use.  If it is adopted as a transactional currency, it will become a unit by which things are measured.
1147  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Imputation Problem on: October 29, 2013, 01:22:27 AM

I wonder, how have some of you dealt with multiple data streams, and how to match them up, either through truncation, imputation, or some other means.


interpolate ?



Interpolation can help with missing values, but I'm not sure what it has to do with combining multiple inputs streams.

sorry if im probably missing something obv but if i had multiple data streams (say 3 exchanges) with different sample rates or missing values or whatever, i would interpolate each data stream to a common timeseries and then combine (average) the data. and would probably weight the inputs by volume




Okay, now I understand what you mean, which was the first suggestion in this thread.  However, I don't think you are using the term "interpolate" correctly.

im listening...




Interpolation is synthesizing new points between existing data.  This is not the same thing as as interweaving two data series based on a common time series.  I'm not sure what the best term is for that, but it isn't interpolation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interpolation
1148  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Imputation Problem on: October 28, 2013, 10:42:26 PM

I wonder, how have some of you dealt with multiple data streams, and how to match them up, either through truncation, imputation, or some other means.


interpolate ?



Interpolation can help with missing values, but I'm not sure what it has to do with combining multiple inputs streams.

sorry if im probably missing something obv but if i had multiple data streams (say 3 exchanges) with different sample rates or missing values or whatever, i would interpolate each data stream to a common timeseries and then combine (average) the data. and would probably weight the inputs by volume




Okay, now I understand what you mean, which was the first suggestion in this thread.  However, I don't think you are using the term "interpolate" correctly.
1149  Economy / Speculation / Re: Silver at 29 ,Bitcoin at 30. this is no-brainer.. on: October 28, 2013, 10:39:22 PM
Wait, when did I ask a question?
1150  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 28, 2013, 09:35:39 PM
What happens to Bitcoin when over 50% of it is owned by wealthy elites? Time to pump something else?

And as they move out, smaller players will move away from charts and start doing business with their bitcoins.  Contraction of the bitcoin economy sows the seeds for the next expansion.  Once things have settled out, the whales will return.
1151  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 28, 2013, 09:32:49 PM
Put a mark on the chart from when you started this thread and chuckle about how long you had to suck it up and take abuse from the likes of me.
First vertical line is the start of the "Gold: I smell a trap" thread.

Second vertical line is the start of this thread.



Now if only you could link to the post in the "I smell a trap" thread that occurs closest to the peak in between Wink.
1152  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 28, 2013, 09:31:04 PM
I have a better question. Why do dozens of people on this forum who have never had any direct interaction with an ETF and no direct knowledge on the underlining motivations for starting and running one, have a fracking opinion they think is worth sharing on this forum?Huh

I do know how ETF work. In fact my stock portfolio is almost only composed of ETFs (with two lines only, one from my country's stock exchange, one from the US one).

Quote
ETF = good for valuation of bitcoin. That is all anyone needs to know. So much freaking hot air in here. LOL

I agree. Most of people here don't understand this.

Yeah, I was not obviously referring to you.  

Its actually funny, (although it annoys me when I am actually trying to find real-important-topic-related-info in a thread), how stupid so many of the bitcoin early adopters are. I mean, there is literally this unrefined, ignorant, idealistic, caveman like quality to so many of these early adopters. Bitcoin is entering a time where (HOPEFULLY!!!) more and more legitimate, well financed, regulated, structured 3rd wave Bitcoin companies, users and investors are going to enter the BTC universe. And eventually they will help drown out the noise.

I mean hats off to the non-authoritarian idealism that led to the birth and early propagation of bitcoin. But, man, evolution rules for a reason, and bitcoin is evolving into something potentially really special and massive. And its time, in my opinion, for this early adopter mentality to be replaced with a new type of visionary.  I am happy to ride that wave.

Well said.
1153  Economy / Speculation / Re: Silver at 29 ,Bitcoin at 30. this is no-brainer.. on: October 28, 2013, 09:15:17 PM
Crumbs,

You do know the difference between money and currency right?  Money is a meduim of exchange and a store of value.  A currency is only a medium of exchange but not necessarily a store of value.  Thats why I have been using the term money when describing gold and bitcoin.  You have yet to use the term currency when speaking of fiat, which is a more accurate description.

I'm a patient, softhearted guy, but you're really beginning to try my patience Angry  This is it -- your last chance:

"Money is any object or record that is generally accepted as payment for goods and services and repayment of debts in a given socio-economic context or country."  --Teh Teachings Of Wikipedos

That's what money is.  
That's where gold and bitcoin fail.
There is no country in which gold or bitcoin are "generally accepted as payment for goods and services."  Gold was once used, but, alas -- a defunct technology.  A relic.  No moar.

A feeble case could be made that bitcoin is accepted as payment in a particular socio-economic context -- amongst bitcoin users.
Fair enough, though we've certainly cut our path unintentionally wide:  Dope, in that case, would be money amongst strung-out dopers, shoes amongst shoe fetishists, etc., etc.  That's what the nerds call Reductio ad Absurdum.

The Dollar, on the other hand, fits the learned Wikipedia definition to a T.

And that's what makes Teh Dollar ... Sound Money. Cool


Whay you are describing is fiat currency, not sound money.  Explain the difference between money and currency if you can.

Please consider an adult education class at your local continuing education facility.
You have exhausted my generosity.

Try this, since you love Wikipedia, and used the term Sound Money: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sound_money

Even though it redirects to hard currency, which to me is a subset of sound money, it specifically mentions store of value.
1154  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 28, 2013, 09:11:39 PM
Even lower this time I presume. Operation Bubblepop in progress.

Beginnings of wave C?
1155  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: is bitcoin bigger than we think? on: October 28, 2013, 09:09:18 PM
Knowing Google results are targeted makes me a little sick.

I Googled "how do I sell" and was prompted with "my kidney "

WTF Google do you think I'm that hard off that I'm prepared to sacrifice a kidney as well as my productive years to keep the boomers system running.


The kidney thing is a joke, right?  I assume so, and find it wildly amusing due to my twisted sense of humor.

At 'ki' I first showed 'kindle' for me, but kidney did appear.  Interestingly there was no option for just "How do I sell my kid".  I wonder if Google specifically coded that out.



Possibly due to this post, kidney is appearing for me now Tongue
1156  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: October 28, 2013, 08:08:54 PM
What has friedcat done? He had 30% of the pie, and the business is now trash. Even Labcoin is close to them in TH. I feel as though he ran AM into the ground purposefully.

Probably.  You should sell.
1157  Economy / Economics / Re: Gov't spending on entitlement programs slows economic growth - Alan Greenspan on: October 28, 2013, 07:42:20 PM
Self-reliance? How?

I'm sure that majority of population can't be self-reliant. There isn't just land and resources for low efficency food production. And then there is the other basics needs.

So the options are either some form of social security or worse safety...

If any country in the world has the land to have an entirely self reliant population, it is the US.  But our food habits would have to change.  You can feed 100 people for a year on the grain it takes to feed 1 cow for a year.  The cow can feed 100 people once, but then you have 364 days left.
1158  Economy / Economics / Re: Gov't spending on entitlement programs slows economic growth - Alan Greenspan on: October 28, 2013, 07:39:42 PM
Long term ANY AND ALL government meddling slows economic growth.

Really?  Breaking up trusts in the 19th century slowed economic growth?

+1

The US needs a new TR.
1159  Economy / Speculation / Re: At some point will too few holders, have enough coins to crash rallies? on: October 28, 2013, 06:17:07 PM

DPR gave up his main wallet in order to save himself.


It's a good thing that this is in the speculation forum and not being presented as fact since I do not believe there has been any official word on how the private keys were obtained.

Yep, for all we know -- and this is supported by other facts in the case -- dude was just sloppy as all hell.

You guys are correct.  It is not known, but it was most likely he struck a deal or he was sloppy.
1160  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 28, 2013, 06:13:25 PM

It means it was filed (as the status field says).  In other words, nothing we didn't know months ago.
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