Bitcoin Forum
April 16, 2014, 08:34:56 PM *
News: ♦♦ A bug in OpenSSL, used by Bitcoin-Qt/Bitcoin Core, could allow your bitcoins to be stolen. Immediately updating Bitcoin Core to 0.9.1 is required in some cases, especially if you're using 0.9.0. Download. More info.
The same bug also affected the forum. Changing your forum password is recommended.
 
  Home Help Search Donate Login Register  
  Show Posts
Pages: 1 ... 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 [58] 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 ... 362
1141  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BREAKING: SEC Charges pirateat40 With Running Bitcoin-Denominated Ponzi Scheme on: August 15, 2013, 10:34:22 PM
Keep in mind the court was in TEXAS.  Surely they love the federal government.

I'm not sure if you are familiar with Texas?

I'm not sure if you are familiar with sarcasm?
1142  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Official ASICMINER Hardware Information on: August 15, 2013, 10:31:15 PM
Interesting chart.  It appears that the Bitcoin hashing network is the most powerful distributed supercomputer on the planet by far...

yes, absolutely. but very dumb supercomputer indeed.

edit:
well, not dumb. just not a supercomputer but a "dedicated solver" Smiley

we roll dice REALLY well.

world's largest and/or fastest psuedorandom number generater?

Largest maybe, but certainly not the fastest.

<256 bits every 10 minutes isn't exactly quick (you can't count the leading 0s since they are predetermined)
1143  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 15, 2013, 10:05:56 PM

Quote
Bitcoins, B-I-T-C-O-I-N-S, it's available to you inside the Google.
1144  Economy / Speculation / Re: TIME TO BUY! Parabolic SAR just flipped the side on: August 15, 2013, 07:07:58 PM
Since some post were about me, let me clarify some aspects: I can make a decent profit if there's at least 3% difference between two local
minimums / maximums, considering a 0.8% (2x 0.4%) commission and adequate volume (which has been a problem lately on Gox).
But my biggest problem is catching the peaks and bottoms while I am not sleeping, because guessing the precise values for the peaks and
bottoms is bloody difficult for me (to place an order overnight). I moved to Gox from Bitstamp because of the higher volumes, but in the
meantime that advantage of Gox has diminished. I also can't do delayed arbitrage anymore (obviously), so I might move back to Bitstamp.
It was easy to reach their 0.5% (2x 0.25%) commission, on Gox to reach 0.6% (2x 0.3%) I'd have to almost double my trades, can't do that yet.

Short term trading would be much easier if we didn't need sleep.  But in light of the reality of my human form, and the fact I don't want to spend all day on the computer, I trade on longer time frames Tongue.
1145  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Does Linux need a Bitcoin OS? on: August 15, 2013, 06:45:58 PM
If someone could modify the kernel to somehow be optimized for mining....

The Cryptographic API of the Linux kernel has a sha256 module.... maybe that can be used.

what's an OS kernel to do with mining these days  Huh

CPU mining is going to make a comeback!  Tongue
1146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 15, 2013, 06:42:22 PM
The point here is if you do a normal iTunes backup without encryption enabled, and then move to a new phone with a restored backup all your google auth tokens will be gone for good. Source: happened to me last month.

Actually it was scary easy just to email the services and ask them to remove 2 factor auth so I could login and re-enable. (CampBx, Coinbase, etc)

How they know you are not hacker ? !!!!

Don't you know that your email address is the keys to the kingdom in almost all security policies?

Don't you know how to write an email with any sender address ?

Yes.  There are obvious problems with using email as the end game of security, but the reality is that is how it works.  Plus, I would assume they would only accept requests from the address on the account. (yes it can be spoofed instead of just blank)
1147  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 15, 2013, 06:34:34 PM
The point here is if you do a normal iTunes backup without encryption enabled, and then move to a new phone with a restored backup all your google auth tokens will be gone for good. Source: happened to me last month.

Actually it was scary easy just to email the services and ask them to remove 2 factor auth so I could login and re-enable. (CampBx, Coinbase, etc)

How they know you are not hacker ? !!!!

Don't you know that your email address is the keys to the kingdom in almost all security policies?
1148  Economy / Speculation / Re: TIME TO BUY! Parabolic SAR just flipped the side on: August 15, 2013, 06:21:47 PM
Whoever pays 0.6% gox commision isn't really going to cut it yes.

But duh! Wink

If you manage to trade a $50 million a month and have the lowest fee, you still need a 58% success rate to break even.  (Assuming a tight stop, which Gox doesn't provide and that connection issues at times of high volume can fuck up if you have a script to do it for you).

The solution is not to mtgox.

Bitstamp has similar fees.
1149  Economy / Speculation / Re: TIME TO BUY! Parabolic SAR just flipped the side on: August 15, 2013, 06:18:24 PM
Whoever pays 0.6% gox commision isn't really going to cut it yes.

But duh! Wink

If you manage to trade a $50 million a month and have the lowest fee, you still need a 58% success rate to break even.  (Assuming a tight stop, which Gox doesn't provide and that connection issues at times of high volume can fuck up if you have a script to do it for you).
1150  Economy / Speculation / Re: Financial Risk Analytics-Subscription Service on: August 15, 2013, 06:14:18 PM
hi.

I reported you to a moderator using the "Report to Moderator" link some time ago. Probably late June/ early July.
Didn't like coming to speculation to see a thread with nothing inherently useful for speculation.
Just so you know its not only your competitor that dislikes your practices - its your potential customers.

Back to minding my own business. Thanks.

I will try to find a solution with cypherdoc and asked him to have a call with me. Because you are right, this daily bumping creates awareness for new potential customers (even if some people including me hate it as it woes not add value). Hence, it would be good to find an agreement to ideally limit posts that have no real content.

The "content" is a notification to subscribers that an update has been sent.  Email is not always reliable and having a second channel of notification is beneficial.  You do the same thing with your thread, you just send less updates.  How hard is it to ignore a thread you know doesn't apply to you?  Other people find it useful, and if I were still a cyperdoc subscriber I would be pissed about the new policy.  You are acting like a fucking child.
1151  Economy / Speculation / Re: TIME TO BUY! Parabolic SAR just flipped the side on: August 15, 2013, 06:10:07 PM
that's all i wanted to see tzupy, something more specific than just "short term indicators are down," because anyone can say that and without providing examples/evidence, it can be misleading to some folks. I'm sorry if you took my reply with too much malice.

Tzupy's just been catching a lot of flak lately because he is always talking about tiny wiggles and most people have a longer term mindset.

hehe I never even minded the tiny wiggles. Commissions + risk cost take all the 'profit' out of $2-4 movements that the indicators call out at that time layer.

Exactly, he will either figure that out or go broke and disappear.


1.02^100=7.245


Okay, let's take a 2% movement.  First, we subtract 0.6% commission from both sides of the trade.  Now we have a 0.8% movement.  Let's assume for a second he calls 100 right in a row:
1.008^100 = 2.21847

Not bad.  Now let's assume he takes a loss on 1/3 of his trades instead of being perfect.

1.008^67*1.008^-33=1.311167

31% is still decent, depending on the time frame.

But wait, that is wrong because you don't lose 0.8% when it goes against you.  You lose the commission too, so you lose the full 2%.

Let's try 1/3 failure again.

1.008^67*1.02^-33=0.88726

Well shit.

What if he is 70% successful?

1.008^70*1.02^-30=0.964344249

Damn.  Maybe if he is right 3/4 of the time he can turn a profit.

1.008^75*1.02^-25=1.107989421928713

Yay!

But can he beat 72% correct that is needed to break even?

And what happens if a big move happens in the wrong direction because the short term indicators are still indicating the correction when it ends and the next large major wave up/down happens?
1152  Economy / Speculation / Re: 15 dollar arbitrage between bitstamp and gox right now??? on: August 15, 2013, 05:41:51 PM
I would only expect this amount to widen as long as Gox has a lag on their FIAT withdrawal methods.

Has anyone even gotten a wire from them and can confirm say a 4 digit wire that has completed?

There is no benefit in removing the fear, uncertainty and doubt in the current situation.

Right now, one man's fear is another man's profit.

+1

If you could get 4 figures out of Gox, would you blab about it our arbitrage the shit out of it?
1153  Economy / Speculation / Re: TIME TO BUY! Parabolic SAR just flipped the side on: August 15, 2013, 05:35:22 PM
that's all i wanted to see tzupy, something more specific than just "short term indicators are down," because anyone can say that and without providing examples/evidence, it can be misleading to some folks. I'm sorry if you took my reply with too much malice.

Tzupy's just been catching a lot of flak lately because he is always talking about tiny wiggles and most people have a longer term mindset.
1154  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning: How many of you Bears have ever been a victim of a Short Squeeze? on: August 15, 2013, 05:09:53 PM
All this head and shoulders talk reminds me of one of my favorite jokes from back in the day:

  Q:  How did they know that Vic Morrow had dandruf?

  A:  The found his head and shoulders in the bushes.

Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vic_Morrow#Death

----

Relatedly:

  Did you know Christa McAuliffe had blue eyes?

  One blew this way and the other blew that way.

Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christa_McAuliffe



You are terrible.
1155  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: A guide for mining efficiently on P2Pool, includes FUD repellent and FAQ on: August 14, 2013, 08:15:07 PM
when i first tried p2pool all i did was point my miner at p2pool.org. After a while my graph was showing hashrate + payout.

now if i try it my graph shows hashrate but never get payout. i never knew about setting up p2pool before hand i just pointed miner at it.

is it even possible to use p2pool that way? or do you HAVE to run bit coin/p2pool aswell?
p2pool.org was on the wrong chain for several weeks, but it's been v13 for at least the last 10 days

1ghash averages a share every 24hrs or so at current hash rate

and don't use p2pool.org,

go to http://p2pool-nodes.info/ or http://p2pool.hostv.pl/     and find something better

why do the graphs never show any payout, even if i left it on for over 24 hours. But the first time i ever used p2pool it was showing payout within a couple of hours ?!


Share difficulty has increased dramatically in the last few months.  Also, 24 hours for 1gh/s is an average.  Variance can potentially widen the window before you hit for you first share to 2 days, but over time it will average out.
1156  Economy / Economics / Re: Why would Bitcoin deflationary philosophy good since 1929 was due to deflation? on: August 14, 2013, 07:07:34 PM
Price inflation and price deflation are both bad.  But how do you propose prices be stabilized?  We have lots of strong evidence central banks can not do it without abusing the power.  The benefit of bitcoin is its supply can not be manipulated.  Decentralized banking and currency issuance may work (there is some historical evidence to support this claim, particularly in Canada in the 1800s), but currently such a system is outlawed in most of the world.
1157  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 14, 2013, 06:50:04 PM
The news didn't change fundamentals and the market made that clear by burning most of the idiots who sold off.

This idiot actually profited from this.

Sure, but only the uberbears who move first benefit.  The rest are the sheep you guys lead to slaughter.
1158  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 14, 2013, 01:31:17 PM
Come on, for once there's actual news. The Feds are going to try and fight Bitcoin. If you think they'll fail it's quite bullish don't you think?

Don't underestimate the disdain that TA devotees feel towards anything not based on traditional stock/commodity-market technical analysis.

The very idea that news might affect a market (even as new and unprecedented a market as BTC) is heresy, an affront to their existing orthodoxy.

 Smiley

Nope, I believe news affect FX markets, but not bitcoin.
I guess I'm a bit of a market analysis agnostic. I don't buy into either philosophy wholeheartedly, but try to use both to my advantage.

As for news not affecting Bitcoin, how about the news of the Satoshi Dice sale and payment to shareholders in BTC? Almost immediately the price dropped by over $10 and while the expected great selloff never happened, it took a week to recover. I'd say that news affected the Bitcoin market, albeit only temporarily.

It wasn't almost immediately... it was 6 hours later after pages of discussion on where cheerleaders made up bullshit reasons why it would drop.  Once they had enough people convinced, it happened.  It is not the news per se... it is speculators overreacting to news and whipping to forums into a panic.  The news didn't change fundamentals and the market made that clear by burning most of the idiots who sold off.
1159  Economy / Speculation / Re: Write a random red word. on: August 14, 2013, 01:50:32 AM
Shouldn't this topic be moved to an offtopic section?

No
1160  Economy / Speculation / Re: How to Explode the Price of Bitcoin OVERNIGHT! on: August 08, 2013, 03:31:00 PM
AFAIK all QE money supply goes directly to repurchasing US bonds....which then goes into infrastructure etc. just like regular government spending. (The govt gets to spend it the first time into the economy.)

This is how it is "filtered" in, the US govt doesn't just hand it to banks (other than bailout money which is a small amount of QE).

Basically the fed is purchasing around 90%+ of all US Treasury bonds issued...no one else wants them anymore.



Nope, it's going into mortgage backed securities to prop up the housing market.
Pages: 1 ... 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 [58] 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 ... 362
Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!