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1141  Economy / Speculation / Re: I fear a collapse on: November 15, 2013, 04:26:29 PM
Cool, fear. As the Oracle said: "Be greedy when others are fearful." It's only when the last vocal bear gives up that the crash really hits.

FTFY

The bears don't go away, they just bite their tongues and bide their time.  When it is silent they are all preparing their attacks.
1142  Economy / Speculation / Re: Ripple competition on: November 15, 2013, 04:21:09 PM
Let's get one thing straight here. If RippleLabs were to try and "Do anything they want" with the price of XRP as so many of you like to assert, I would be the happiest man on Earth. Why?

Because I would arbitrage the shit out of every single one of their trades and have the single biggest payday that I have or ever will have, in my life.

To top it off, the value of XRP probably wouldn't end up much different than it was originally.

In order to do "anything they want" with XRP, they would have to own a significant amount of every major currency with a strong market against XRP and simultaneously buy and sell these currencies with XRP in order to get the price to stick. But, they wouldn't want to do that because it would entail changing a significant portion of their XRP balance into another currency which in turn would make the XRP price manipulation less worth doing.

 Price manipulation would cost them far more than it would ever earn them and they know it. They aren't stupid people.

They have enough XRP to buy out every ask on every asset.  Not that I think they would, but they could.  If they did, XRP would be worthless.  How exactly are you going to "arbitrage the shit out of" that?  Are you going to sell all your assets at the new high price for the worthless XRP?
1143  Economy / Speculation / Re: the perfect storm? on: November 15, 2013, 04:13:09 PM
what would be really cool are coins which are "sealed" in a way they only open up in a year
maybe some slowly decaying cover-paint and an qr code printed with air reacting paint
sealed in clear glas - if you break it to get the key earlier it would just get lost forever

That is already possible with lock_time transactions. The way you do this is generate a paper wallet normally, then create a raw transaction that sends funds to it (from a freshly funded address that you will not use anymore in the future - this is important) with lock_time set to unix timestamp of one year from now and sign it. With lock_time parameter set, this transaction will be relayable after the this amount of time (you can try to send it to the network, but it will reject it). Then you just print this transaction data as a QR code and put it on a paper wallet as well.

Unfortunately, there are no tools that make this process easy at the moment, but if you're interested I can write in another topic how exactly you can do it by yourself using bitcoind.

Either you don't understand lock_time, or I misunderstand it.

According to https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Protocol_specification#tx lock_time prevents the transaction from being included in a block until the specified block or unix timestamp.  You are indeed preventing the coins from being spent from your paper wallet for a year, but in the mean time the coins can still be spent from the addresses you used as inputs to your locked transaction.

My understanding of the lock_time feature is that it is used to allow you to potentially change a transaction before it is solidified, not to lock some coins into the ether.

Now if you were to also destroy the private keys of any inputs to your transaction, then you could accomplish what you want (provided those keys were secure before you deleted them and there is no chance they could have leaked to someone).
1144  Economy / Speculation / Re: Ripple competition on: November 15, 2013, 07:47:34 AM
So that's what I was saying, I need to check signatures all the way down to possibly the last node in the reachable network to determine if the network is being partitioned, right?
You can get as complex or as simple as you like. If you want to be really lazy, you can just pick a few entities that you know are very unlikely to collude against you and just check if they report that the network isn't partitioned in their validations. There's no point in ever checking the signature on a message whose public key isn't already known to you. So the work you have to do goes up with the number of public keys known to you.

With a small network, there aren't that many validators anyway. With a large network, statistical sampling is more reliable, especially since it's automatically two levels. (You are checking whether a supermajority of the validators you trust see a majority of the validators they trust.) We believe the most reliable topology is a hairball, so we're working on schemes that reliably produce them. You also want to avoid too many validators in the same jurisdiction or of the same type of entity (individual, commercial, non-profit, government).

As a student of graph theory I am wondering if you could describe for me what you mean by a "hairball".  A google for "hairball topology" didn't yield anything except this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hairy_ball_theorem and I don't think that's what you mean.
1145  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will bitcoin hit 2383? on: November 14, 2013, 11:45:43 PM
As good a number as any. Discuss.

Five days ago.

1146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 14, 2013, 11:20:49 PM

If you actually followed the source wikipedia links to, it says the following:

Quote
I use the term fiat or abstract paper money interchangeably to stand for a government supplied means of payment of no intrinsic worth.

So not even your own source actually supports your claim. It's just Wikipedia messing up.

Not sure why this bothers some of you so much.  There is government fiat, now digital fiat, clam shell fiat, etc, etc.  As freethink just said, fiat isn't necessarily a bad thing.  It's not bad that USD is fiat in that sense.  What's bad about USD is that it is debt based.  It enters the system as debt.  It would actually be nice if the treasury would just issue sovereign money and break capital holders grip on our economy.
Fiat means decree which is the anti-thesis to Bitcoin. That is why it bothers me.

The decree is right here: http://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Everyone here has accepted bitcoin as the implementation of that decree.
No. I have not been told to use Bitcoin. I have chosen to. Thus it is a proposal and not a decree to me.

Fiat means (from the latin since you like etymology) "let there be".  In my mind, that paper fits that meaning quite well.  You are the one adding the forceful connotation to the term.
1147  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 14, 2013, 11:03:36 PM

If you actually followed the source wikipedia links to, it says the following:

Quote
I use the term fiat or abstract paper money interchangeably to stand for a government supplied means of payment of no intrinsic worth.

So not even your own source actually supports your claim. It's just Wikipedia messing up.

Not sure why this bothers some of you so much.  There is government fiat, now digital fiat, clam shell fiat, etc, etc.  As freethink just said, fiat isn't necessarily a bad thing.  It's not bad that USD is fiat in that sense.  What's bad about USD is that it is debt based.  It enters the system as debt.  It would actually be nice if the treasury would just issue sovereign money and break capital holders grip on our economy.
Fiat means decree which is the anti-thesis to Bitcoin. That is why it bothers me.

The decree is right here: http://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Everyone here has accepted bitcoin as the implementation of that decree.
1148  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 14, 2013, 10:39:46 PM

The word "fiat" means a decree or a dictate thus indicating a central authority. This does obviously not apply to Bitcoin or bitcoins and we should thus, in my opinion, avoid linking the word "fiat" with bitcoins.

No, I will not avoid "linking" the word fiat with Bitcoin because that is what Bitcoin or any other currency that has no intrinsic value is. Fiat.  You may not like that and even choose only the definitions that support your position, but it is what it is.  Fiat.
I am not picking definitions at will. Fiat means decree thus indicating central authority. I tried to be polite but:
http://goo.gl/fQX918

And he is using the definition from wikipedia's "Fiat Money" page.  I'm not saying I agree with him, but he already linked to his definition, so linking to a conflicting definition won't get you anywhere.
1149  Economy / Speculation / Re: We've Reached the Top (Proof Inside) on: November 14, 2013, 10:03:22 PM
There is also a good case to be made that we are still in Elliott Wave 3:



Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1, so we could be close to the end of wave 3 now. Corrective wave 4 would not overlap wave 1 and is often less than 38% of wave 3, so a correction now from the high of 440 on MtGox would signal a strong buying opportunity between 260-300 USD on MtGox. Then wave 5 would extend the rally past todays' highs.

I was only measuring the current bull run that we're on, but if you're right that we're in wave three overall, that would be an unsettling thought, given that the Winklevoss twins believe we should be hitting $40,000 USD value per coin. I don't see how we could reach that if there's only wave 5 left to go.

Wave 5 is not the end.  After wave 5 comes the ABC corrective, and then we build a base before continuing with the next wave 1.  $40,000 may be be possible, but we won't get there in a straight line.
1150  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bears thread - unleash the bear in you in this thread on: November 14, 2013, 07:37:02 PM
If it is banned in the USA, the ban will have devastating repercussions throughout the world.

You need to get out of USA for a decade or so to realise how unimportant it actualy is. Start with BRIC countries.

These "free democracy" folks always forget how gold was forbidden by Roosevelt in 1933  Cool

Did that affected anyone but USA? Not really.

+1

As a US citizen I like to remind my fellow Americans that we are less than 5% of the world's population  and even that percentage is shrinking.
1151  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will You Sell when BTC Hits $1,000? on: November 14, 2013, 03:05:58 PM
Don't forget .........

CAPITAL GAINS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If a dude is holding 350 bitcoins and makes $350,000 ......

Some such dudes are going to have to give $100,000 of it to the government "just because" ....

Maybe the correct question is, how many people are applying for citizenship in Germany right now?  Smiley

I'm surprised nobody has qualified the "cash out" option with a date - does it really makes sense to cash out for a bunch of fiat right before the end of the year, when you would have to claim it as income only a few months later?  Why not wait until January at least so that you have over a year before you have to claim anything for taxes?

If you want to put it as fiat at least maybe you could invest the portion needed to pay taxes for the year interim and lessen the impact.   But maybe that's just me...  Cheesy

Because at the end of the year you know how much you can cash out without affecting your tax bracket.
1152  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do not sell bitcoins for fiat unless you really need to on: November 14, 2013, 02:56:13 PM

This really only tells us that more Bitcoins are moving through the blockchain.  That doesn't tell us that actual spending is increasing.  With the rise in prices and plentiful press, it's logical that "transactions" are up because Bitcoins are moving to and from wallets.  So "transactions" being up really only equals increased activity not necessarily increased spending.

So you are claiming most of the increased activity is due to people moving their own funds around?  I find that less likely, but you are welcome to believe what you want.
1153  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do not sell bitcoins for fiat unless you really need to on: November 14, 2013, 05:01:08 AM
I'm not sure the government can take over BTC.  In order to buy it up they'd have to give out USD or accept bitcoin for some ... service?  They can only buy directly what people want to cash out for, and after a certain point nobody's going to want USD so they'll be giving thousands of dollars away for each BTC, so if the government wants to crash Bitcoin at that point they'd be sinking their own ship because they own so much BTC.

I doubt that the US government is particularly concerned about bitcoin at this point, aside from figuring out potential ways to regulate and tax it (which I think is what the hearing on November 18 will be about?) I'm not sure why they would want to "take it over", but if it reaches a point where they feel it's a threat in the form of money laundering, I'm sure they would just close the exchanges down or forbid banks from allowing bitcoin transactions, which would essentially destroy it.

They are certainly paying attention.  We'll see how they feel on Monday when they have the senate hearing on Bitcoin, but it is called by the Homeland Security Committee, so I doubt it will be about taxation.
1154  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoinica Starfish showing on: November 14, 2013, 04:31:07 AM
Someone needs to get a bitcoinica clone going for litecoin.

Bitfinex trades LTC.
1155  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do not sell bitcoins for fiat unless you really need to on: November 14, 2013, 03:43:57 AM

You can start here:
http://blog.bitpay.com/2013/04/bitpay-eclipses-silk-road-in-bitcoin.html

There are other, probably better articles, but I really don't care to prove anything to you when you can do a little legwork yourself.

We already had a whole thread in the main section of this forum and not one shred of definitive proof so, just because a "Bitcoin" company says it, doesn't make it true.  And this thread certainly doesn't help that argument either.  Just saying.  I personally agree though.  Why spend something today that could be worth a lot more tomorrow?  I regret every Bitcoin spent.  Maybe Bitcoin will defy logic and then again...maybe we'll just make as much money as we can before it implodes.  Only time will tell.  In the end, don't be mad at me, I didn't write the article.

Looks like people are spending bitcoin:
http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

Bitcoin days destroyed is up too, so old coins are moving.
1156  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoinica Starfish showing on: November 14, 2013, 03:25:42 AM
Quote
Not enough USD reserve on Bitstamp, you cannot buy on Bitstamp at the moment.

Some history:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=61114.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=62964.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=62281.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=62152.0
1157  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's getting frothy, and I'm dumping 75% of my coins on: November 14, 2013, 12:29:27 AM
BTW I was one of the only people to call the last spike a bubble when it was happening, took a lot of heat for it, but was ultimately correct and bought back in for around $70 - giving me more than double the coins I had previous to the post.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169651.0

so at least I have a track record - on record.

only this time I will be very cautious about buying back in, I have traded many chinese "instruments" (which is basically what bitcoin is now), and I can tell you straight up that they are crazy, the go to even more extremes than western markets - in both the up and the down. I think it goes with the asian culture of feeling more comfortable being in a group, they seem to have less of a sense of individuality, so they are even more comfortable in a herd mentality. But that is just my psyche 101 on them, it could be BS.




Good job selling over $100 before the top.  Certainly a record worth bragging about Roll Eyes.
1158  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do not sell bitcoins for fiat unless you really need to on: November 14, 2013, 12:26:47 AM
So many of you confirm this writers theory as to why Bitcoin will fail as a transaction currency.  The more expensive it becomes, the less you spend.  Interesting.   Cool

http://www.businessinsider.com/if-you-believe-in-bitcoin-you-should-never-buy-anything-in-bitcoin-2013-11#ixzz2kM39YlIJ

Merchant reports notme claims that spending goes up when price increases.
FTFY  Grin

Seriously though, others have made that same statement but there seems no actual proof.

You can start here:
http://blog.bitpay.com/2013/04/bitpay-eclipses-silk-road-in-bitcoin.html

There are other, probably better articles, but I really don't care to prove anything to you when you can do a little legwork yourself.
1159  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do not sell bitcoins for fiat unless you really need to on: November 14, 2013, 12:03:03 AM
So many of you confirm this writers theory as to why Bitcoin will fail as a transaction currency.  The more expensive it becomes, the less you spend.  Interesting.   Cool

http://www.businessinsider.com/if-you-believe-in-bitcoin-you-should-never-buy-anything-in-bitcoin-2013-11#ixzz2kM39YlIJ

Merchant reports claim that spending goes up when price increases.
1160  Economy / Speculation / Re: $70 gain in 1 day... is this the biggest 1-day gain in $ terms ever? on: November 13, 2013, 11:59:14 PM
True/false?

If so, seems like a fun thing to tell the press about. Not only are we reaching new all time highs, but we're doing it at the fastest rate ever!

Rate implies percentage.  Largest nominal gain does not mean largest percent increase.
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