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1981  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2 Scenarios resulting from SD: Bearish vs. Turbo Bearish with Lasers on Top on: July 18, 2013, 03:29:17 AM
Ok, so this is only just speculative and may never become reality (we'll see in a few hours;)

TLDR at bottom

2 Market mechanics at play:

1. Share holders want to sell their free Bitcoins from the pay out (or fractions thereof) at the best price possible

2. Everyone else trying to make a quick profit sells in anticipation of it, in order to re-buy at the bottom.

Phase ONE: During the hours leading up to the release of payouts (about 12pm on 2013-07-18 UTC) every speculator tries to dump their BTCs before the rest does. Europe wakes up first around 9 am UTC, then around 1pm UTC the US east coast wakes up with another slush of BTCs released on the markets.
The final price before first funds are released will be of great importance for what happens next: if the price is still pretty high, many SD payees will be tempted to sell their fresh BTCs at good rates. If price has come down pretty low, like 70 USD many will probably hold off, waiting for better rates. If on the other hand price has already been driven down below 50 USD, which I consider the edge to mass panic sells, the payees will most likely feel pressed hard to get rid of their BTCs quick, as long as it still "is worth something". Of course this sell off may not last long and will bounce back eventually but all of you, who have witnessed a panic sell before know that ppl tend to not act rationally under those circumstances.

Phase TWO: Funds are released, payees act according to current price

Im not sure about the amounts of BTCs to be sold immediately after funds release as they greatly depend on the situation at hand.

How likely are those scenarios in your opinions?

TLDR: If we stay above 50 before funds are released, we will be fine Wink

Or..... Shareholders put their Bitcoin into ASICMiner and altcoins and wait until the bear trap plays out.
1982  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 18, 2013, 03:26:10 AM
Yup, if anyone had any confidence in what they were posting they would be swinging their dicks and front-running the shit out of it



+1
1983  Economy / Securities / Re: Furthering the S.DICE / AM comparison on: July 18, 2013, 02:51:23 AM
Necro-bumping for recent developments, discuss.

S.DICE is no more. AM is running strong.

Okay, that's done.
1984  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: July 18, 2013, 02:43:11 AM
LTC-Global fits that bill nicely, although it is traded in Litcoins not Bitcoins, on litecoinglobal.com. As far as I can see there isn't a passthrough on btc-tc (yet).

For the sake of transparency I own at least 10 shares of it and am therefor a board member, so keep that in mind. (For the sake of bragging I bought in a few months ago at under 70LTC, and it has traded for over 300LTC recently.  Tongue)

Actually there is even a PT:

https://btct.co/security/BTC-TRADING-PT

DAT Quote
The grilled cat mining machine is a continuation of the quality of baked cat. Grilled cat quality, roast cat team embodies the physical ability. In the world of Bitcoin client roast cat, cat fans and the public trust grilled roast cat's shareholders, the firm and steadfast grilled cat is constantly moving forward to solid backing. After a competitor, overwhelming viral marketing style spread negative news, I believe that the cat will not make grilled irrational choice and let his client fans be sad. Let us follow the roast cat vast cock wire counter-attack of wealth now!"

ROFLOL
1985  Economy / Securities / Re: S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx on: July 18, 2013, 02:25:52 AM
Paging PT operators.. how will you manage buy backs? Do we expect the full 0.0035?

The one I run on LTC-Global will be converting the entire final payment into LTC and paying it out in full.

Awesome.... I'm going to go front run you.
1986  Economy / Computer hardware / Re: [WTB] USED ASICMINER USB BLOCK ERUPTERS - 0.70 per. on: July 18, 2013, 02:21:41 AM
When the price comes down I'll be right here.  No rush.

I'll sell you up to 61 of these @ 0.7 a piece for delivery in 60 days.
1987  Economy / Securities / Re: S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx on: July 18, 2013, 02:14:12 AM

This all feels very rushed and, honestly, coming from someone like Erik who completely understand the Bitcoin economy and the side-effects such a sudden move might have on the market, it seems rather careless and distant from any kind of long term commitment towards Bitcoin. It's a market move.

Where is this idea coming from that Bitcoin is being sold for fiat?

You've started quite the buzz in the speculation subforum.  Bears are looking for rationalization of their opinions.
1988  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: THE TRUTH: Can someone withdraw fiat money from MTGOX? on: July 18, 2013, 01:59:53 AM
If you guys want your bitcoin converted to cash in your US bank accounts you should read this thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=237164.0

Why not just make a bitcoin withdrawal, then load the bitcoin for sale at Bitcoin-Brokers for free, who will then broker the sale of your bitcoins...get you higher rates than MtGox rates, and pay you cash immediately into your US bank account?

No wire transfer fees, no waiting, get paid more than MtGox.

Are you fully licensed to transmit money in all 50 states?  If you are not, you are putting your funds and your customer's funds at risk of seizure.
1989  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: THE TRUTH: Can someone withdraw fiat money from MTGOX? on: July 18, 2013, 01:44:02 AM
Is there any method of withdraw available?

The methods are available, but there is a big queue for them to process before they get to your request.

If you need cash now, buy btc and sell it somewhere else.
1990  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 18, 2013, 01:41:00 AM
So, how are we going to refer to the ensuing price drop?

SatoshiDiceddon?

I really invite you check the SatoshiDice statistical analysis thread, you will see how incredible were the profits during the bubble inflation, people gambled like there was no tomorrow. Tens of k's of BTC profit per month.

If this buyout is true is probably the biggest investment ever in the Bitcoin economy, and its not pure speculation. Its big big news, guys.

ASICMiner is trading at a market cap of 172k BTC
1991  Economy / Speculation / Re: Goomboo's Journal on: July 18, 2013, 01:38:40 AM
Candle closed!  EMA10 > EMA21!  Fire! Fire! Fire!
Where? Wink You're 2 days too late Cheesy


Daily Goomboos: Prepare your fiat!

Steady.... steady.... don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes.

Candle closed!  EMA10 > EMA21!  Fire! Fire! Fire!
1992  Economy / Speculation / Re: Goomboo's Journal on: July 18, 2013, 01:20:23 AM
Daily Goomboos: Prepare your fiat!

Steady.... steady.... don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes.

Candle closed!  EMA10 > EMA21!  Fire! Fire! Fire!
1993  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: July 17, 2013, 11:15:42 PM
I'm not reading your example.  I understand your point from your sentence.  As I've said repeatedly, I'm looking at this from a long term investor perspective, not a trader perspective.  The balance of market participants in each camp is impossible to know, but the correct valuation is somewhere between the two camps.

I hear ya, I'm just saying I think there are more small holders with less than 5 btc that investors like you.  And, I think that's why the price gap is historically a lot closer than the 4% we were seeing.

Sure, there are probably more.  But the large holders (obviously) have more weight each.
1994  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: July 17, 2013, 11:06:03 PM
People have a limited supply of btc, and they want to invest the whole amount of BTC, not just whole shares.

This is the strongest point I've seen so far, but IMO is balanced by convertibility of whole shares.
not in the eyes of smaller shareholders. why would anyone want to wait a week for FC to approve of a share transfer when you can just sell them on an exchange?

I'll give you a real life example.  I bought some shares on an auction when AM-PT was trading around 5.1.  I bought the shares for 4.7.  Meanwhile, the price crashed, and by the time the share transfer had gone through, the price had dropped to 3.6, back to 4.7, back down to 3.9, back up to 4.5, then to 4, then back and worth between 4 and 4.5.

Had I had those shares, I could have bought and sold them a number of times during that volatility period and increased my holdings and overall value considerably.

Now, I knew what I was getting into, so no big deal, but for a small holder, than has 5 btc to invest and is not looking at a several month investment, converting to direct shares is a liability, not a benefit.

The point here is that these valuations depend a lot on the investor's goals.  Short term, long term?  different valuation. under 10 btc, over 100btc?  different valuations.  day trading or hands off?  different valuations.

I can see several cases where TAT.AM is a smarter investment for a small holder than full AM-PT or direct shares.


I'm not reading your example.  I understand your point from your sentence.  As I've said repeatedly, I'm looking at this from a long term investor perspective, not a trader perspective.  The balance of market participants in each camp is impossible to know, but the correct valuation is somewhere between the two camps.
1995  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: July 17, 2013, 11:01:37 PM
You are welcome to disagree or use your own valuation models, but the fact that you choose to do so, does not make your method absolutely better, or more accurate.

+1

I've explained my method and the reasons why it works for me.  I'm not trying to claim everyone should value things in the same way, and if you are a short term trader than the other methods presented have some merit.
1996  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: July 17, 2013, 10:46:45 PM
People have a limited supply of btc, and they want to invest the whole amount of BTC, not just whole shares.

This is the strongest point I've seen so far, but IMO is balanced by convertibility of whole shares.
1997  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: July 17, 2013, 10:40:28 PM
Why are you guys measuring per year values when you can just trade between the two
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/ddm.asp


Prove your point with math  Wink
MATH BATTLE !
Never get to say that  Grin

Because your math requires numbers we don't have access to.

Just make some rough estimate till we get financials with AM monthly or weekly scales are where it's at as bitcoin itself fluctuates and as investors we need to calculate currency risk as well into all our valuations as it impacts the stock price Smiley

That's a good way to calculate nonsense.
1998  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: July 17, 2013, 10:38:35 PM
What do you have to say about this:


If I take 5% off the top, I have to take 5% off the bottom to have the same dividend yield.

If AM decided to retain dividends for 6mos to do a massive expansion, are the shares now worth 0? 50%? What?

Dividends are not the only driver of price, thus dividend yield is an incomplete way to factor it. 5% mgmt fee on divs cannot be directly converted into a 5% less valuable share.

It ignores so many factors. How long do you intend to hold the shares? What will the price be when you sell? How much will you have collected in dividends by then? None of those things are absolute, nor is the yield %.

You would need to hold the shares for a considerable amount of time to realize a 5% loss in gains (respective to share price) from the mgmt fee.

Maybe an extreme example will help. If AM shares go up to 100btc each, but the dividends stay at about .025 per week. Is a 5% mgmt fee still going to justify TAT.AM selling for 95btc? Of course not.

I agree that current dividends are not the only driver of price, but people wouldn't buy if they didn't expect future dividends.  For my investment I use a combination of current dividend yield and future growth potential, but I'm more of a long term investor than a trader like many here seem to be.  Seeing as how it is the same company, growth potential is the same (unless I don't trust you, but that would cause me to value AM1 even more highly since I can convert those to direct shares).  Current dividend yield is equal at 95% AM1 price for AM100.

If AM shares go to 100BTC with a dividend yield of 1.3%, they had better have a good story to back it up.  But ultimately, if I was comfortable enough with the story to accept the temporarily low yield, I still would discount it 5% because I am valuing the future dividends that the price implies.  If I don't value them so highly, I will sell out.
1999  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: July 17, 2013, 10:10:35 PM
Why are you guys measuring per year values when you can just trade between the two
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/ddm.asp


Prove your point with math  Wink
MATH BATTLE !
Never get to say that  Grin

Because your math requires numbers we don't have access to.
2000  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 17, 2013, 10:09:38 PM
Even if we stipulate that the apologists are right and Gox is dealing with a minor banking problem, can anyone argue that they have acted professionally and been forthcoming in their communication with customers?

I hope they get their shit together because to many casual users, they ARE Bitcoin. Anyway, the next couple of weeks will be telling, as otherwise patient people will soon start to doubt the safety of their funds.

You have to understand Pale Phoenix, that we have been through much worse and are fairly desensitized to Gox's bullshit.

+1

So much for my hopes of talking about something BESIDES MtGox withdrawals today.
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