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1981  Other / Off-topic / Re: Is this about the cryptocurrency dip?: Man of steel (Superman) on: July 09, 2013, 04:33:28 PM
no
1982  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: ASIC resale value on: July 09, 2013, 01:35:02 AM
As far as I can see by end of year any ASIC less than 100GH will be worth almost zero or maybe 1/10th to be nice as a resale value, diff will have sky rocketed beyond the moon

The difficulty won't rocket past the moon without the price heading back up.  Otherwise, who will be buying all the ASICs?  Why not just buy bitcoins?
1983  Economy / Speculation / Re: Asic devaluating bitcoin on: July 08, 2013, 07:44:10 PM

I'm a miner.  I don't sell my btc as soon as they are produced, and in fact, as a US citizen it would be illegal for me to do so without registering with FinCEN as a money transmitter.  It stands to reason you are just making shit up.


Yeah we all know that all bitcoiners scrupulously follow all financial regulations!

I make an effort to follow all financial regulations, and unless you enjoy having your property seized, I suggest you do the same.

Is it really that hard to spend your bitcoins rather than sell them for cash?

enjoy your slave role. and btw your property is your leash.

You surely don't utilize public roads or government subsidized telecommunications, water, or energy.

Oh, and BTW, I follow all laws and regulations and still pay no taxes.

Also, I own my own home and property and do not owe monthly payments.  I consider this far less of a leash than paying mortgage and rent every month.  So who's the slave here?
1984  Economy / Speculation / Re: Asic devaluating bitcoin on: July 08, 2013, 04:31:19 PM

I'm a miner.  I don't sell my btc as soon as they are produced, and in fact, as a US citizen it would be illegal for me to do so without registering with FinCEN as a money transmitter.  It stands to reason you are just making shit up.


Yeah we all know that all bitcoiners scrupulously follow all financial regulations!

I make an effort to follow all financial regulations, and unless you enjoy having your property seized, I suggest you do the same.

Is it really that hard to spend your bitcoins rather than sell them for cash?
1985  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: ASIC resale value on: July 08, 2013, 01:46:52 AM
ASICMiner USBs are going for $140-$200 on ebay and amazon.
1986  Economy / Computer hardware / Re: [WTS] ATX PSU to 2.5 or 2.1/5.5mm 12V coaxial plug power cables [1 Year Aniv.!!] on: July 08, 2013, 01:14:11 AM
Cablez, if you are willing to do special orders, I would be interested in a cable.

I would like you to start with one of your switches like this:


But, in addition to the switch, I would like you to use the available 5V lines to give me as many 5V 3.5mm plugs as possible (up to 10).  Each plug needs to be capable of 3 amps.

I need about 8 feet before the first connector and at least 3 inches between the plugs.  If you can do something like this, pm me a quote.
1987  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: July 08, 2013, 12:37:33 AM
Honestly though, the most imminent big trade is not in Bitcoin IMO, it's short the S&P. I think the top is in as of the ATH @ 1687.18. This next year or two should be a wild ride once we start to finish these stupid 1-2s and get some real downside momentum going Smiley

+1
1988  Economy / Speculation / Re: Google Trends 2011 v 2013: Don't get your hopes up. on: July 08, 2013, 12:23:50 AM
Bitcoin software downloads might be a better indicator.

Not really! I've said it before that many people download every new version. I know I have a client on 3 computers currently, then multiply that by at least 10 versions I've had since I started and that is a lot of downloads. I'm sure there are others who do the same

On the other hand, for those of us that run linux distros that package bitcoin, there is one git clone done by the package maintainer (which doesn't show up in sourceforge stats) and then we all download the package from the repositories (which doesn't show up in stats either).  But, you have a point in that you would have to adjust the stats for post-release surges before you could run any meaningful analysis on it.
1989  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: USB ASIC Miners will never ROI at 1 BTC/device on: July 07, 2013, 11:58:15 PM
If you are getting 400, then you are just lucky because the vast majority of us are getting almost exactly 334.

On the just buy BTC theory, you may be correct, but we want to mine! Probably best to do a combination.

On the price drop theory, it seems like people are not remembering Cypress. More and more rumors of Cypress happening here. That will drive the price up. Also, serious rumors of fiat not being fiat anymore because the IMF is moving to a commodity backed system to readjust the values of all currencies. This will include precious metals and everything else like oil, etc. not just gold and silver. If that happens, then we may be in much better USD shape long-term and BTC rise will be much slower. Digital currencies still have the advantages of near instant payment without a bank and middlemen to take a cut.

I must be the luckiest person in the world... I just ordered 50 more and they are all pushing pretty close to 400 MH/s.

Edit: updating to cgminer 3.3 lowers my  hashrate to 334ish... strange
1990  Economy / Speculation / Re: Asic devaluating bitcoin on: July 03, 2013, 08:56:43 PM
Just so you know gmaki, I do not intend to pick on you personally.  But I have been here for a long time and you are far from the first person to make the claim you are making.  In the 2.5 years I've been on this forum (this isn't my only account), I have only seen 1 miner agree that they regularly sell out their take (username fcmatt).  I have seen many, many others view it as an alternative means to acquire bitcoins (as opposed to purchasing them outright).  I'm sure there are probably more miners who do sell out, but IMO it is not anywhere near "the vast majority".  I'll admit I could be wrong, but that's not what the evidence I have indicates.  If you have evidence I'm missing, please bring it to light rather than making unsubstantiated claims based on how you view bitcoin and mining since your view has led you to have no skin in the game.
1991  Economy / Speculation / Re: Asic devaluating bitcoin on: July 03, 2013, 08:42:33 PM
A.  Sure, but good speculation is done with educated guesses, not ass vapors.
B.  No, I have never been more than 1% of the network.  But when you claim most people in group x act in way y you should have several examples of individuals in group x that you can prove act in way y.  I see no such data and the other miners I know do not behave as you suggest.
C.  Try reading what I posted.  I even quoted the relevant portion.  The restrictions only apply to mined coins, and if you register there is no problem (although registration is an expensive and time consuming process).  Mined coins can however be spent without issue.  Yes it is fairly arbitrary, but that's how the USG rolls.
D.  Yes, bitcoin is worldwide, but if we use your arbitrary 5% threshold I'm sure that the US accounts for a significant amount of coins.

One is supposed to make such decisions by looking at historical data, understanding the math behind that data, and making educated estimations.  Posting bullshit on these forums will more often get you a through trolling than solid advice.

I would start with reading more about how the system works.  If it doesn't inspire awe in you it is not time for you to buy in yet.  Bitcoin is years from going mainstream.  If it does inspire awe, you'll know what to do.
1992  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? on: July 03, 2013, 06:48:45 PM
I think we are past denial.  That was all the rage last week.  I'd put us somewhere from fear to panic.
1993  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do not panic, its not the end of bitcoin FFS on: July 03, 2013, 06:39:00 PM
Panic!  It's the end of Bitcoin FFS!
1994  Economy / Speculation / Re: People are selling - where is the money on: July 03, 2013, 06:34:18 PM
more logical would be buying BTC with MtGox money you have in account and take it out there fast  Cheesy The daytraders deserve to loose the USD from MtGox

Without day traders there would be no liquidity.  Let them play their zero sum game.  They don't deserve to be scammed any more than you or I.
1995  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am fucking panicking on: July 03, 2013, 06:16:31 PM
I am seriously considering getting out of this game. Give some strength bros!

Imo you have invested too much into Bitcoin, if a price drop leads to panic.
Just hold an amount that you can afford to lose.

Exactly.  If you are panicking you are overexposed.
1996  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am fucking panicking on: July 03, 2013, 06:13:39 PM
If you are panicking now you might as well sell.  We've got a lot more volatility to work out before we can rocket again.  If you can't sit tight, sell out or put your coins in a paper wallet and walk away for 3-6 months.
1997  Economy / Speculation / Re: Asic devaluating bitcoin on: July 03, 2013, 06:00:07 PM
Hello, i think asics are devaluating bitcoin and will continue to do so because they are extremely cost efficient (i mean electricity per gh).

You are making the classic mistake in thinking that in crypto coins that the cost of production has anything to do with the market price.

If there was no limit as to how many bitcoins could be mined, you would have a point.   Production would increase, and the flood of additional bitcoins would suppress the exchange rate until mining no longer is lucrative -- and an equilibrium would be reached.  

But with mining, difficulty adjusts and thus no matter how much additional mining capacity comes online, roughly the same amount of bitcoins are produced day after day.

So the amount of mining occurring (hashing capacity) doesn't drive the price, but instead is simply a reaction to price.

Because of how efficient ASIC mining hardware is, the cost of electricity is a trivially low percent of the mining revenue.  This contrasts how with GPUs the cost of electricity does now (... or soon will) exceed the revenue.  

So ASIC has (or will) demolished the profitability when mining using GPUs, but it has little to do with the exchange rate.  (other than, perhaps, miners investing their coins to buy ASIC hardware, and in turn ASIC hardware vendors flooding the market with coins when cashing them out for R&D and manufacturing costs.)

When there is a delta (as there is right now) between price of BTC and cost to produce BTC then every new BTC created is effectively being purchased for less than market value, and as of right now for a fraction of market value. So it would stand to reason that the vast majority will be converted to $$ or other currency immediately upon creation.

It's like insiders caching in options on a normal stock, which drives price down.

This does in fact have a become a market mover to the downside if the overall volume is low enough, which it seems to be. Your statement would be true if the outside interest in BTC overwhelmed the miners influence but it doesn't seem like we are there yet.

It seems to me that other than the recent media fueled bubble, mining is THE primary factor in determining price.

I'm a miner.  I don't sell my btc as soon as they are produced, and in fact, as a US citizen it would be illegal for me to do so without registering with FinCEN as a money transmitter.  It stands to reason you are just making shit up.

http://fincen.gov/statutes_regs/guidance/html/FIN-2013-G001.html
Quote
A person that creates units of this convertible virtual currency and uses it to purchase real or virtual goods and services is a user of the convertible virtual currency and not subject to regulation as a money transmitter. By contrast, a person that creates units of convertible virtual currency and sells those units to another person for real currency or its equivalent is engaged in transmission to another location and is a money transmitter.
1998  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: July 03, 2013, 05:51:23 PM
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin collapsing, US Dollar UP.
Stocks down

No they aren't S&P is up

Zoom out.  The top was in May.  Technically, gold is up today too, but I wouldn't get too excited about daily wiggles.
1999  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: July 02, 2013, 05:42:16 PM
I think I'm gonna start a sale for 50 shares for 6 btc/share. 

24 hours, flat price.

What do you guys think?

I think it doesn't matter what we think.  I think you should start your sale and see what the market thinks.
2000  Economy / Speculation / Re: What exactly is the bear case? (sincere question) on: July 02, 2013, 05:41:30 PM
Basically the dollar is such a good investment that people are all jumping on board. I cashed out all of my stocks and bought dollars.

I have also taken out a huge loan in the hopes that the dollar goes up a lot.

We are all going to be rich!

How is taking out a USD loan possibly a good thing to do when the dollar is strong?  You have to pay it all back and even if it is a fixed rate the real value of the interest payments will rise.

Because the dollar kicks ass!!!

Print more so we are all rich rich rich!!!

If the dollar kicks ass, I still don't understand why you want to give up more dollars.  Taking out a loan means giving up more dollars than you receive.  (yes, I understand you are trolling, but you should at least be consistent Tongue)
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