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1981  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: June 28, 2013, 08:54:04 AM
As for daily, my issue with that is that we don't have it entering the triangle initially from the top and bouncing off the bottom.  Instead it bounces low outside the bounds, then enters the triangle and bounces off the top.  This gives the triangle a slightly more bullish character than the one I posted.  

So you expect at the end of the triangle first break up and then fall down?  Wink

I'm honestly about 60/40 bearish on the daily at this point.  It would take some intense short term buying pressure to base a rally from here.

But that's assuming a breakout....  We could very well move sideways for a while.
1982  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: The Impending Stalemate on Mining Hardware and ROI on: June 28, 2013, 08:50:14 AM
If difficulty rises too high people stop buying hardware and inefficient hardware drops out.  Difficulty corrects.  End of story until the next price bubble hits.

Unfortunately, several hundred TH/s were pre-ordered in the form of BFL, Avalon chips, KNCMiner, Bitfury, etc. So for the next 4 months at least, the difficulty will follow an exponential curve. There is a tremendous amount of head room in the difficulty rate for operation of mining equipment because the USD exchange rate moved from low double digits to low triple digits.

If the exchange rate continues to rise the hash rate growth will not slow. However, that does not make investment in mining equipment a good investment. If you stand to make more from buying BTC than buying equipment to mine BTC, then prices for equipment must correct eventually.

Your thesis requires they fix the recurring problems with their production and shipping procedures.  ASICMiner is the only company shipping with reasonable lead times.  I think they will get there, but it might take 4 months before it starts to smooth out.

There are roughly 2000 TH/s of chips either produced or planned for production so far (roughly 1000 TH/s of which has already been paid for).  3000 TH/s of chips would take us to 20X current difficulty, which is about the upper limit on profitability for some of the lower end ASICs.  Where is all the money going to come from to produce the last 1000 TH/s of chips after the difficulty skyrockets and another 1000 TH/s worth of demand is soaked up by chips on the way?

And yes, if you are investing USD, you need to ensure your ROI is good at today's prices or potentially even lower.  You should not count profits in USD terms without a significant margin of error added.  Things are a bit simpler if you are investing BTC.
1983  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: June 28, 2013, 08:38:56 AM
Anyhow, sorry for the OT lucif, please show us some bearish triangles Wink



This resembles BTC right now.

On what timescale?

15 minute lol

Also daily since about $160

I see the 15 minute, but don't get lost in the wiggles Tongue

As for daily, my issue with that is that we don't have it entering the triangle initially from the top and bouncing off the bottom.  Instead it bounces low outside the bounds, then enters the triangle and bounces off the top.  This gives the triangle a slightly more bullish character than the one I posted.  However, things still look fairly bearish based on other indicators.
1984  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: USB ASIC Miners will never ROI at 1 BTC/device on: June 28, 2013, 08:29:59 AM
I did not buy them.  I am operating them for a fee for a friend.  Based on the timing, I would say 2 which is unfortunate for him.  I wouldn't have bought at that price and I told him that.  However, this shouldn't be a competition to prove I made bad decisions.  This should be a discussion of facts.

At 2BTC a piece I agree.

Also, I am the pool fee, so even on my own hardware I don't have to worry about that.

Dude, I've been mining since December 2010.  I know how to calculate expenses.  If you want to discuss potential difficulty, sure, that is guesswork.  But I know expenses.

K your 0.2btc return on 18 months plan is too little for my tastes. And a bit too risky considering
Thats based on 10% 11day schedule. How much is shipping on those?



Shipping is free.  I'm still not buying at 1BTC, but it is profitable and I will gladly continue to operate for a fee as many as my friend wants to buy.

Personally, I am waiting for a better proposal once AM gets some competition.  At the moment, they are the only ones shipping in reasonable times (2-4 days from China to US vs. a 3 month estimated queue at BFL and taking a risk on Avalon's "we will deliver when your rig starts to fill with dust"... oh or KNC's 28nm dream machines).  I'm waiting a few more months to see how it all plays out.

The real question is how the heck are you getting a hashspeed of 400 instead of 334? Do tell...

1. Plug it in
2. Start mining

They are likely advertising a hashrate that is based on average imperfection rate and a fair margin of error.  All ASIC production has areas where the chip doesn't work properly, so you might only get 90% of the cores in the chip that actually function properly.  Either they added too much buffer to their estimate or I got really lucky with all 10 of my miners.
1985  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where we break the downward trend and rebound from the current bottom? on: June 28, 2013, 08:23:35 AM

So, of the 11.5 million current addresses, only about 600K have any coins. What conclusions can we draw from that, if any?

To the OP: will get back on topic soon Smiley

That most coins move after they are received.  That's about it.
1986  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: June 28, 2013, 08:18:15 AM
Anyhow, sorry for the OT lucif, please show us some bearish triangles Wink



This resembles BTC right now.

On what timescale?
1987  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [700GH/s] p2pool: Decentralized, DoS-resistant, Hop-Proof pool on: June 28, 2013, 08:13:06 AM
Block Erupter Blade support for p2pool - Bounty
Current bounty: 5 BTC

I would like to make ASIC Block Erupter Blades 13GH/s working with p2pool. ASICs support for p2pool is very important for p2pool survival.
I am giving 5 BTC bounty for developer who will make them working on p2pool. Bounty will be paid to developer or split between group of developers who will contribute to solving the problem.
If you guys have BE Blades too, please let me know. I can arrange escrow via John K. (or I can collect funds directly, I am trusted forum member, please check my OTC), once we gather more funds maybe one of our developers will be interested to look closer to this problem.
I myself can donate my Blade worktime for a developer to make debug and testing, please let me know.
PM me if you a developer and you would like to get access to my BE Blade and to my Linux server for debug purposes. Please help:)
PM me if you a BE Blade user and you d'love to see your blades hashing on p2pool to - let's gather more BTC for our honest developers.

Regards
Lenny


Have you tried it?  What kind of stats are you getting?

I'm running 10 AM USB sticks on p2pool and getting over 100% efficiency.
1988  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where we break the downward trend and rebound from the current bottom? on: June 28, 2013, 08:01:37 AM
I did see an interesting stat, however. Over 90% of wallet that are downloaded do not contain and have never contained any coins!

I have no idea how anybody could possibly know that and I like to think I understand bitcoin pretty well since I first read the whitepaper in 2010.

Substitute "addresses" for "wallets"...

http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address

Of course!  The default client never always sends change to a new address.  Coins left on an address that has had its private key exposed will be the first lost if there is ever a problem found with ECDSA.
1989  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: June 28, 2013, 07:55:51 AM
Anyhow, sorry for the OT lucif, please show us some bearish triangles Wink

1990  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where we break the downward trend and rebound from the current bottom? on: June 28, 2013, 07:52:12 AM
I did see an interesting stat, however. Over 90% of wallet that are downloaded do not contain and have never contained any coins!

I have no idea how anybody could possibly know that and I like to think I understand bitcoin pretty well since I first read the whitepaper in 2010.
1991  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 28, 2013, 07:06:19 AM
Gox going down?

http://i.imgur.com/a2SW8ZH.png

well_that_escalated_quickly.png

Just little wiggles, chill out.

1992  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: June 28, 2013, 06:22:57 AM
Socialism is too loaded of a word to convey any meaning.

So is captialism and anarchism unfortunately.

We should find new words.


Right, we just need to be clear about what we mean without using those words.  Unfortunately, each of those words conjures up a preconceived idea that is different for each of us.
1993  Economy / Speculation / Re: Duble Digit Belieber's Club: on: June 28, 2013, 05:28:40 AM
The last time it tipped up was May 16th, 2012.

It it was also very stable for much longer.  However, this time we don't have any pirates trying to peg it.... or do we.
1994  Economy / Speculation / Re: Duble Digit Belieber's Club: on: June 28, 2013, 05:20:57 AM
I beliebe!
1995  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 28, 2013, 05:17:32 AM
. Not a silver to its gold, but a bond to its stock.

IMO that would be the economy spending on goods and services or investing in providing them. (or fiat if you don't mind leaving the XBT ecosystem)

Or, a sister crypto with an inflation rate driven by Bitcoin Difficulty, with proof of stake.

1.  How are new coins distributed with proof of stake?
2.  What happens when difficulty goes down?
1996  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: June 28, 2013, 03:57:28 AM
Socialism is too loaded of a word to convey any meaning.
1997  Economy / Speculation / Re: Good time to buy BTC? on: June 27, 2013, 08:07:09 PM
Exactly. And for the guys making $2/hr, this will just be all the more relevant.
All those guys who work for $2/hr are probably working to fill those container ships. We should be thinking about how to pitch Bitcoin to their bosses.

china probably never try BTC because of goverment

Then why was there a 30 minute segment on BTC on on of their state-run news channels.
1998  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Explaining Bitcoin to a non-believer on: June 27, 2013, 07:20:52 PM
Tell them you wont talk to them about Bitcoins again until they can explain to you what Nixon did to the dollar and why you should keep your money in dollar after it devalued 98% since 1971.

Ha! Yes, I'm going to do that, I should have thought of that... (AP United States History student)

If you go that route, at least get your facts straight.  The dollar has devalued 98% since the Federal Reserve system was put in place in 1913.  It has devalued 82% since the gold backing was severed in 1971.
1999  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: pool.yrral.net P2Pool backed mining pool ALPHA on: June 27, 2013, 07:15:14 PM
Sorry, no payout today.  P2Pool only found one block since the last payout, and it still needs another 33 confirms before it is spendable.  There will definitely be a payout Monday.  Thank you for your patience.  Hopefully p2pool will gain a larger share of mining with the new changes coming (longer share times which makes p2pool work better with some ASICs) and we can get back to solving more blocks.
2000  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 27, 2013, 10:39:27 AM


Just search this thread for "looks heavy" Tongue
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