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1981  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: July 17, 2013, 11:06:03 PM
People have a limited supply of btc, and they want to invest the whole amount of BTC, not just whole shares.

This is the strongest point I've seen so far, but IMO is balanced by convertibility of whole shares.
not in the eyes of smaller shareholders. why would anyone want to wait a week for FC to approve of a share transfer when you can just sell them on an exchange?

I'll give you a real life example.  I bought some shares on an auction when AM-PT was trading around 5.1.  I bought the shares for 4.7.  Meanwhile, the price crashed, and by the time the share transfer had gone through, the price had dropped to 3.6, back to 4.7, back down to 3.9, back up to 4.5, then to 4, then back and worth between 4 and 4.5.

Had I had those shares, I could have bought and sold them a number of times during that volatility period and increased my holdings and overall value considerably.

Now, I knew what I was getting into, so no big deal, but for a small holder, than has 5 btc to invest and is not looking at a several month investment, converting to direct shares is a liability, not a benefit.

The point here is that these valuations depend a lot on the investor's goals.  Short term, long term?  different valuation. under 10 btc, over 100btc?  different valuations.  day trading or hands off?  different valuations.

I can see several cases where TAT.AM is a smarter investment for a small holder than full AM-PT or direct shares.


I'm not reading your example.  I understand your point from your sentence.  As I've said repeatedly, I'm looking at this from a long term investor perspective, not a trader perspective.  The balance of market participants in each camp is impossible to know, but the correct valuation is somewhere between the two camps.
1982  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: July 17, 2013, 11:01:37 PM
You are welcome to disagree or use your own valuation models, but the fact that you choose to do so, does not make your method absolutely better, or more accurate.

+1

I've explained my method and the reasons why it works for me.  I'm not trying to claim everyone should value things in the same way, and if you are a short term trader than the other methods presented have some merit.
1983  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: July 17, 2013, 10:46:45 PM
People have a limited supply of btc, and they want to invest the whole amount of BTC, not just whole shares.

This is the strongest point I've seen so far, but IMO is balanced by convertibility of whole shares.
1984  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: July 17, 2013, 10:40:28 PM
Why are you guys measuring per year values when you can just trade between the two
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/ddm.asp


Prove your point with math  Wink
MATH BATTLE !
Never get to say that  Grin

Because your math requires numbers we don't have access to.

Just make some rough estimate till we get financials with AM monthly or weekly scales are where it's at as bitcoin itself fluctuates and as investors we need to calculate currency risk as well into all our valuations as it impacts the stock price Smiley

That's a good way to calculate nonsense.
1985  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: July 17, 2013, 10:38:35 PM
What do you have to say about this:


If I take 5% off the top, I have to take 5% off the bottom to have the same dividend yield.

If AM decided to retain dividends for 6mos to do a massive expansion, are the shares now worth 0? 50%? What?

Dividends are not the only driver of price, thus dividend yield is an incomplete way to factor it. 5% mgmt fee on divs cannot be directly converted into a 5% less valuable share.

It ignores so many factors. How long do you intend to hold the shares? What will the price be when you sell? How much will you have collected in dividends by then? None of those things are absolute, nor is the yield %.

You would need to hold the shares for a considerable amount of time to realize a 5% loss in gains (respective to share price) from the mgmt fee.

Maybe an extreme example will help. If AM shares go up to 100btc each, but the dividends stay at about .025 per week. Is a 5% mgmt fee still going to justify TAT.AM selling for 95btc? Of course not.

I agree that current dividends are not the only driver of price, but people wouldn't buy if they didn't expect future dividends.  For my investment I use a combination of current dividend yield and future growth potential, but I'm more of a long term investor than a trader like many here seem to be.  Seeing as how it is the same company, growth potential is the same (unless I don't trust you, but that would cause me to value AM1 even more highly since I can convert those to direct shares).  Current dividend yield is equal at 95% AM1 price for AM100.

If AM shares go to 100BTC with a dividend yield of 1.3%, they had better have a good story to back it up.  But ultimately, if I was comfortable enough with the story to accept the temporarily low yield, I still would discount it 5% because I am valuing the future dividends that the price implies.  If I don't value them so highly, I will sell out.
1986  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: July 17, 2013, 10:10:35 PM
Why are you guys measuring per year values when you can just trade between the two
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/ddm.asp


Prove your point with math  Wink
MATH BATTLE !
Never get to say that  Grin

Because your math requires numbers we don't have access to.
1987  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 17, 2013, 10:09:38 PM
Even if we stipulate that the apologists are right and Gox is dealing with a minor banking problem, can anyone argue that they have acted professionally and been forthcoming in their communication with customers?

I hope they get their shit together because to many casual users, they ARE Bitcoin. Anyway, the next couple of weeks will be telling, as otherwise patient people will soon start to doubt the safety of their funds.

You have to understand Pale Phoenix, that we have been through much worse and are fairly desensitized to Gox's bullshit.

+1

So much for my hopes of talking about something BESIDES MtGox withdrawals today.
1988  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: July 17, 2013, 10:06:33 PM
I don't think I am mistaken, actually, mainly because with higher volume, you don't see that gap between the 2, so obviously the market doesn't value the 5% fee in the same way you do.

Highest Bid for AM100: 0.04130000
Lowest Ask for AM1: 4.55000000

Sure, you might be able to get lucky with limit orders, but right now you're looking at AM100 being worth less than 91% of AM1.  If you actually want enough volume to move an entire AM share, you would take AM100 down to 0.04080001.  If you want to move multiple shares, you are SOL.

AM1 is too new to use as a price reference. It only has 525 shares currently, as it grows, it will get closer to the other whole-share sources.

My point was a counterargument to velacreations "obviously the market doesn't value the 5% fee in the same way you do" statement.  I'm not claiming it is liquid enough to make a valid comparison.  Just that the comparison he is attempting to make doesn't hold.

What do you have to say about this:


If I take 5% off the top, I have to take 5% off the bottom to have the same dividend yield.
1989  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: THE TRUTH: Can someone withdraw fiat money from MTGOX? on: July 17, 2013, 10:02:48 PM
I received a wire from mtgox for a large amount.  Took about 1.5 months, and a couple of support requests, but it finally came in.  They're fixing it, and within the next month or less, it should be back to normal. 

I don't think people realize how much volume gox does...  ANY exchange with similar volume will/have run into these issues.

-EP

I cashed out $130,000 from my brokerage account last month. wire transfer was 1 minute after I called. I guarantee you my brokerage exchange account does a million time the volume gox does.

Is your brokerage account with a startup in a different country?  Or is in a well established business that doesn't have to deal with international banking?
1990  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: bad Block Erupter? on: July 17, 2013, 10:00:09 PM
Slush's pool is reporting 9.435MHz

while cgminer is showing:
AMU 0: | 290.4M/364.9Mh/s | DA:20 DR:0 HW:106 WU:2.33/m

I'm going to buy an 85C working temp crystal and replace what's on there and take that out of the equation.

That's way high HW errors.  You should have around 1%.
1991  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: July 17, 2013, 09:55:10 PM
I don't think I am mistaken, actually, mainly because with higher volume, you don't see that gap between the 2, so obviously the market doesn't value the 5% fee in the same way you do.

Highest Bid for AM100: 0.04130000
Lowest Ask for AM1: 4.55000000

Sure, you might be able to get lucky with limit orders, but right now you're looking at AM100 being worth less than 91% of AM1.  If you actually want enough volume to move an entire AM share, you would take AM100 down to 0.04080001.  If you want to move multiple shares, you are SOL.
1992  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: A Complete Guide to P2Pool - Merged Mining (BTC/NMC/DVC/IXC/I0C) plus LTC, Linux on: July 17, 2013, 09:30:08 PM

I was trying to find that for my install, but couldn't remember what it's called or where it's located. Thanks for the link!

So you are aware, there is a memory leak currently if you use the auto-refesh option.  It will eat all of your memory fairly quickly.

I decided to just fix it:
Quote
This fixes it for me:
https://github.com/hardcpp/P2PoolExtendedFrontEnd/pull/17

For watchers, until this pull is merged, feel free to use my repo:
https://github.com/yrral86/P2PoolExtendedFrontEnd

Update: it still seems to be leaking a bit, but not nearly as bad
1993  Economy / Speculation / Re: SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal on: July 17, 2013, 09:28:26 PM

So it's a game of chance what your candles look like and wether or not they filter the outlier.


Exactly.  There are many methods one can use to filter out outliers, but candlestick bodies are just blind guesses.
1994  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: bad Block Erupter? on: July 17, 2013, 09:17:49 PM
[2013-07-17 17:14:40] USB: AMU0 read1 buffering 4 extra bytes
 [2013-07-17 17:15:13] Stratum from pool 0 detected new block
 [2013-07-17 17:15:21] USB: AMU0 read1 buffering 4 extra bytes



I get those occasionally.... as long as it isn't every second you should be okay.
1995  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: July 17, 2013, 09:11:37 PM
Velacreations has the right idea, and is even trying to teach you, forgoing his own advantage.

Believe what you want, but those who can do better math, and those who are better at trading will just benefit more.

You sound like MPOE-PR. Tongue

Despite her cold candor, default stubbornness, and abrasive approach, people could learn a lot from her.

The 5% mgmt fee on dividends does not directly devalue the share by 5%. The math is not as simple as that.

Share price and yield from dividend are not proportionally correlated. For example, it was not long ago that AM shares were half the price of today, and paying the same divs. Divs did not double, yet the price did.
Yes, there more plenty more factors affecting the share price difference than just the dividend difference. But in the conversation you were responding to, the difference of opinion wasn't about other complexities, it was about what difference the 5% reduced dividend should make to the share price, and Velacreations was mistaken on that point.

The point is that taking 5% off of the share price as a means of factoring the mgmt fee, is incorrect.



If I take 5% off the top, I have to take 5% off the bottom to have the same dividend yield.
1996  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-07-12: One Third of Kenyans Now Have a Bitcoin Wallet on: July 17, 2013, 08:36:42 PM
reconsidering this issue: what should someone in Kenya do with a bitcoin? Can he spend it? Can he change it in the local currence? And I mean not about the long way round via friend in the uk and western union. This would be completely nonsens. Does anyone know there's a option to do anything with Bitcoins in Kenya?

People with family in Kenya can send them Bitcoins.  Then can use these Bitcoins to acquire MPESA, which is widely used in Kenya.  The remittance market is huge.
1997  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: 0.25 BTC Bounty - Show me a Mt Gox USD Withdrawal :) on: July 17, 2013, 08:32:32 PM
No, I don't find it odd that people wiring money out of Gox don't come report to you.  Their money is non of your business.  You guys are paranoid.

But, let's assume you are right for a second.  What are you going to do?  If I believed what you believe, I would cancel my withdrawal request, buy bitcoins, and get as far away from MtGox as possible.  If you still have money at MtGox with your beliefs you are an idiot.  If you don't have money with MtGox, then why the fuck are you trying to whip people into a panic instead of going about your business.  Or is trading on MtGox the only reason you are here?  If so, go find something productive to do to help develop the bitcoin economy or GTFO.

It is not about believing or not - it is about assigning probability to this event.  The probability grows and it makes me uncomfortable - I did move out most of my funds already and I am pretty happy with my overall profits, but this situation is still rather unnerving for me.

Then don't use Gox.... you've been around long enough to know their history.  This shouldn't surprise you.
1998  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Pictures of your mining rigs! on: July 17, 2013, 08:29:17 PM
Just scroll 30 cm higher- 5 posts above  Smiley

Oh... I never saw the original.  I'm not sure you need to let us know about updates within the first 2 hours of a post.
1999  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: July 17, 2013, 08:27:23 PM
Kind of rational.  You get a 5% discount in your dividend.

well, then the price should be 5% of .5% (.025%) less, cause that's the difference.

4% > .025%
No, because the 5% reduction is to all dividends, not just that one!

well, ok, so let's look at dividends for the year (4.3, 30% APR).  5% of that is .0645 btc.

4% price difference doesn't make sense when your fee is 5% of the dividend (usually less than 1%).

Only the last sentence is correct.

5% price difference is what you should expect on a 5% dividend fee.

Every time you get paid, you get 5% less.

Velacreations has the right idea, and is even trying to teach you, forgoing his own advantage.

The 5% mgmt fee on dividends does not directly devalue the share by 5%. The math is not as simple as that.

Believe what you want, but those who can do better math, and those who are better at trading will just benefit more.

Share price and yield from dividend are not proportionally correlated. For example, it was not long ago that AM shares were half the price of today, and paying the same divs. Divs did not double, yet the price did.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dividendyield.asp
Quote
A financial ratio that shows how much a company pays out in dividends each year relative to its share price.



By definition annual dividend yield is inversely proportional to share price.

Now if you want to claim that annual dividends is not proportional to share price, then sure.
2000  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: 0.25 BTC Bounty - Show me a Mt Gox USD Withdrawal :) on: July 17, 2013, 08:15:56 PM
Video from Roger Ver on MtGox Finances to ease the communitys misplaced fears on MtGox Insolvency - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UP1YsMlrfF0

So he repeats the old story that the problem is the amount of transfers - but we have seen that for last month there were 0 transfers executed from MtGox - how that fits the story?

0 transfers eh?

Let's go back one page in this very thread:
i just made another successful domestic withdrawl to my Japanese bank account.  Took only a day or 2 as usual.

(i know this doesn't count, but just thought i'd let you guys know)

0 USD transfers that were initiated after withdrawals were resumed (7/4) might be accurate.

Right... a bounty for a withdrawal started less than 8 business days ago when MtGox said it would take several weeks to get caught on on the queue before they can deal with new requests.

Yes, this bounty was created for withdrawals initiated after 7/4/2013, but don't you find it a little odd that there are no reports to be found anywhere for any kind of success in receiving USD for any kind of withdrawal requests?

I am quite sure that some happy customer that got their very old USD withdrawal finally coming through would show up also on this thread. Or in some other thread. Anywhere.

I cannot think of any other explanation for this lack of any kinds of success except that they are not really processing the queue at all.

If you listen carefully to what Roger Ver is saying on the video and especially what he is NOT saying , even he is not telling us of any kind of achieved progress in processing the withdrawals at all.

No, I don't find it odd that people wiring money out of Gox don't come report to you.  Their money is non of your business.  You guys are paranoid.

But, let's assume you are right for a second.  What are you going to do?  If I believed what you believe, I would cancel my withdrawal request, buy bitcoins, and get as far away from MtGox as possible.  If you still have money at MtGox with your beliefs you are an idiot.  If you don't have money with MtGox, then why the fuck are you trying to whip people into a panic instead of going about your business.  Or is trading on MtGox the only reason you are here?  If so, go find something productive to do to help develop the bitcoin economy or GTFO.
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