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2101  Economy / Speculation / Re: Asic devaluating bitcoin on: July 03, 2013, 06:00:07 PM
Hello, i think asics are devaluating bitcoin and will continue to do so because they are extremely cost efficient (i mean electricity per gh).

You are making the classic mistake in thinking that in crypto coins that the cost of production has anything to do with the market price.

If there was no limit as to how many bitcoins could be mined, you would have a point.   Production would increase, and the flood of additional bitcoins would suppress the exchange rate until mining no longer is lucrative -- and an equilibrium would be reached.  

But with mining, difficulty adjusts and thus no matter how much additional mining capacity comes online, roughly the same amount of bitcoins are produced day after day.

So the amount of mining occurring (hashing capacity) doesn't drive the price, but instead is simply a reaction to price.

Because of how efficient ASIC mining hardware is, the cost of electricity is a trivially low percent of the mining revenue.  This contrasts how with GPUs the cost of electricity does now (... or soon will) exceed the revenue.  

So ASIC has (or will) demolished the profitability when mining using GPUs, but it has little to do with the exchange rate.  (other than, perhaps, miners investing their coins to buy ASIC hardware, and in turn ASIC hardware vendors flooding the market with coins when cashing them out for R&D and manufacturing costs.)

When there is a delta (as there is right now) between price of BTC and cost to produce BTC then every new BTC created is effectively being purchased for less than market value, and as of right now for a fraction of market value. So it would stand to reason that the vast majority will be converted to $$ or other currency immediately upon creation.

It's like insiders caching in options on a normal stock, which drives price down.

This does in fact have a become a market mover to the downside if the overall volume is low enough, which it seems to be. Your statement would be true if the outside interest in BTC overwhelmed the miners influence but it doesn't seem like we are there yet.

It seems to me that other than the recent media fueled bubble, mining is THE primary factor in determining price.

I'm a miner.  I don't sell my btc as soon as they are produced, and in fact, as a US citizen it would be illegal for me to do so without registering with FinCEN as a money transmitter.  It stands to reason you are just making shit up.

http://fincen.gov/statutes_regs/guidance/html/FIN-2013-G001.html
Quote
A person that creates units of this convertible virtual currency and uses it to purchase real or virtual goods and services is a user of the convertible virtual currency and not subject to regulation as a money transmitter. By contrast, a person that creates units of convertible virtual currency and sells those units to another person for real currency or its equivalent is engaged in transmission to another location and is a money transmitter.
2102  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: July 03, 2013, 05:51:23 PM
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin collapsing, US Dollar UP.
Stocks down

No they aren't S&P is up

Zoom out.  The top was in May.  Technically, gold is up today too, but I wouldn't get too excited about daily wiggles.
2103  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: July 02, 2013, 05:42:16 PM
I think I'm gonna start a sale for 50 shares for 6 btc/share. 

24 hours, flat price.

What do you guys think?

I think it doesn't matter what we think.  I think you should start your sale and see what the market thinks.
2104  Economy / Speculation / Re: What exactly is the bear case? (sincere question) on: July 02, 2013, 05:41:30 PM
Basically the dollar is such a good investment that people are all jumping on board. I cashed out all of my stocks and bought dollars.

I have also taken out a huge loan in the hopes that the dollar goes up a lot.

We are all going to be rich!

How is taking out a USD loan possibly a good thing to do when the dollar is strong?  You have to pay it all back and even if it is a fixed rate the real value of the interest payments will rise.

Because the dollar kicks ass!!!

Print more so we are all rich rich rich!!!

If the dollar kicks ass, I still don't understand why you want to give up more dollars.  Taking out a loan means giving up more dollars than you receive.  (yes, I understand you are trolling, but you should at least be consistent Tongue)
2105  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: The Impending Stalemate on Mining Hardware and ROI on: July 02, 2013, 05:38:07 PM
Miners are hurting bad today with BTC value plummeting all over the exchanges. The gold rush is already over, those with the first few Avalons were the only big winners to come out of it.

The rest still hoping to get their hardware soon will be faced with their units having a pretty low ROI unless Bitcoin rallys up hard. There is nothing saying we won't see another Cyprus that will pump Bitcoin and Litecoin back to a good ROI level, and I actually think there will be in time with more of these "bail ins" and people needing a fiat escape pod, but for now the mining scene is pretty grim  Undecided



ASICMiner will deliver to your door within 2-3 business days of placing your order.
2106  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: What is a "signed int"? on: July 02, 2013, 05:36:20 PM
Try this one geeks...

There are 10 kinds of people, those that understand binary, and those that don't.  Cheesy

Wouldn't that be 4 kinds of people?

10 in binary is equivalent to decimal 2

100 in binary is equivalent to decimal 4

LOL, I guess you missed it.

Please explain, because I'm still missing it.

Unless you are being a grammar nazi and viewing it as a list of 3 items instead of a clause followed by a list of two items because of the usage of a comma rather than a colon.  If that's it then you should work on your comedy.  If that's not it, you should still work on your comedy since it needs explanation.
2107  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: What is a "signed int"? on: July 02, 2013, 05:03:10 PM
Try this one geeks...

There are 10 kinds of people, those that understand binary, and those that don't.  Cheesy

Wouldn't that be 4 kinds of people?

10 in binary is equivalent to decimal 2

100 in binary is equivalent to decimal 4
2108  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin DOWN, Litecoin UP on: July 02, 2013, 05:01:12 PM
the dollar is being pumped by the fed you guys realize that right?

"Printed" money is actually debt and must be repaid with interest.  You realize that right?
2109  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 02, 2013, 04:55:40 PM
Disclaimer: I know nothing about EFTs and TLDR the Winklevii document.

I wonder what the tax implications of the Winklevii moving their BTC into this EFT trust are. They would not need to pay any capital gains tax, since they've not realised their profits. But what about the shares they are selling?

There is no tax implication for them or their corp.  the corp does not pay taxes when issuing shares.  That money goes to the corp (not to you directly).  If they then pay themselves a salary from that money, then they'd pay taxes on it.

I guess the difference is that if they just sold the BTC, they would pay taxes on any realized gains.  So, actually, I guess this is the perfect way of selling BTC at a profit without paying taxes.   The money is technically in the corp, but they can still buy themselves pretty things with it.

What it does is make the Bitcoins into an ETF.  There are well established rules for ETFs for taxes and accounting, so it hides the fact that your investment is in Bitcoins making the accounting easy, its just another ETF in your list of ETF investments.

Whether it is wise to do so is an entirely separate question.  

Also, the ETFs are the #1 mechanism that the leviathans use to manipulate currencies (such as gold).  So the existence of an increasing number of ETFs that can move the market however a central bank desires it to move creates additional issues.

The reason there are Gold, Oil, Industry, and Country ETFs is that actually buying a brick of gold, or a barrel of Oil is a huge pain.   This is not the case for Bitcoins.  Any idiot can overnight a check to CampBx and buy Bitcoins.  ...and you don't need to declare anything.  If Bitcoins go up in value and you sell them, it is up to you if you want to declare that income (the IRS has not said it's taxable yet) - with an ETF, you WILL have to pay taxes, definitely.

The IRS says every profitable transaction is taxable: http://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc420.html
2110  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: July 02, 2013, 04:48:31 PM
Step away for a week and the price has EXPLODED!  Pleasant pleasant surprise.  Where do you think the ceiling is?  Still time to buy in more?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.0
2111  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mt. Gox and the fluctuation of Bitcoin price... on: July 02, 2013, 12:14:30 AM
Yea I do not see any reason that exchange of cryto-currencies to other cryto currencies should be regulated, I remember reading an article where bitcoins were deemed a form of storage of memory and not an actual currency I wonder if this argument will be applied in these regulatory talks...

Perhaps elsewhere, but in the US FinCEN has made it very clear that certain bitcoin activities require registration as a MSB and a Money Transmitter.
2112  Economy / Speculation / Re: What exactly is the bear case? (sincere question) on: July 01, 2013, 11:23:45 PM
Basically the dollar is such a good investment that people are all jumping on board. I cashed out all of my stocks and bought dollars.

I have also taken out a huge loan in the hopes that the dollar goes up a lot.

We are all going to be rich!

How is taking out a USD loan possibly a good thing to do when the dollar is strong?  You have to pay it all back and even if it is a fixed rate the real value of the interest payments will rise.
2113  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: pool.yrral.net P2Pool backed mining pool ALPHA on: July 01, 2013, 01:54:14 PM
Here are the difficulty weighted share records for the 3 solved blocks this payout period.

Block Unix Timestamp: 1372321882 Total Payout: 0.11698405
Address                                                 shares  payout
178sstRXJ2aF4KHcrkbECzFopjDgHCigyr        219840  0.11688292
1yrraLgmRZ1fbgtz2BSVXcWVrJnH785QZ      190.217 0.00010113

Block Unix Timestamp: 1372496818 Total Payout: 0.09565966
Address                                                 shares  payout
178sstRXJ2aF4KHcrkbECzFopjDgHCigyr        127459  0.09322465
1yrraLgmRZ1fbgtz2BSVXcWVrJnH785QZ       3329.2  0.00243501

Block Unix Timestamp: 1372604666 Total Payout: 0.05891375
Address                                                 shares   payout
178sstRXJ2aF4KHcrkbECzFopjDgHCigyr        61423.7  0.05702005
1yrraLgmRZ1fbgtz2BSVXcWVrJnH785QZ      2039.95  0.0018937

Total confirmed payouts:
178sstRXJ2aF4KHcrkbECzFopjDgHCigyr        0.26712762
1yrraLgmRZ1fbgtz2BSVXcWVrJnH785QZ      0.00442984 + 0.00000042 = 0.00443026
Total                                                    0.27155788


Transaction ID: 2232dc36bad0c64c23f9b5ac48ad4fe692f4138ef565cfd90a8a4cc11bef017b

The pool has been down since noon EST on Saturday and will remain so for at least the rest of this week.
2114  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: June 30, 2013, 01:03:37 AM
Yeah a lot of people "truly appreciate" numerology too. (Or "investing" in Bitcoins for that matter Tongue)

I'm guessing you're a hardened disbeliever, ElecticMucus. What characteristic about Elliott Wave is troubling you?

No check for consistency is done. (Usually by the drawing lines on a chart approach)
But I hold about every other method in the same regard, that includes traditional indicators, candle sticks and whatnot. I would even say every approach which isn't fully automated isn't worth the effort.

Interpreting the chart as a continuous non-differentiable function is ok, but attribution of arbitrary constraints is not. (Like Fibonacci ratios which are literally Numerology)
Don't come with a "track record" unless you show me statistical proof I call BS.

Price is certainly not continuous.
2115  Economy / Speculation / Re: ...AND THE BOTTOM IS... on: June 30, 2013, 12:46:55 AM
I answered the question in the poll.  The I read the OP.  Those questions have different answers.  Which one should I be responding to?

While I may be able to make a decent guess at the bottom, I will rarely be exactly right.  I will be buying all along the way.
2116  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 28, 2013, 07:18:20 PM
APMEX was advertising a special on PAMP 1oz gold bars, $29.99 over spot.  The special ended a few hours ago so I thought I'd check in to see what the new rate is, it's $29.99 over spot  Cheesy

I guess they have a lot of supply leftover.

ROFL. over supply?

Yup.  Gold bugs constantly harp about the divergence between paper gold and physical gold.  Well, right there you can buy all the physical gold you want for a very reasonable price over spot, but it doesn't really look like people are buying.  Maybe when it gets closer to $1000.

Pawn Star guy says otherwise.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-28/even-pawn-star-knows-governments-can-screw-currency

Someone should tell him about the APMEX deal.
2117  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mining margin on: June 28, 2013, 07:14:07 PM
gpu mining or asic mining ?
Sadly blockchain.info doesn't give away what hardware is used for the calculation, so it doesn't allow for a precise statement.
But with difficulty rising and price dropping it's fair to assume that even Asics won't provide a margin anymore if this continues.

Actually, they do:
Quote
* Electricity consumption is estimated based on power consumption of 650 Watts per gigahash and electricity price of 15 cent per kilowatt hour. In reality some miners will be more or less efficient.

** For profit margin hardware costs are estimated to be $1000 per gigahash every 2 years, and bandwidth $1 per gigahash per year.

You can verify this at the bottom of this page: http://blockchain.info/stats

In other words, their assumptions are now complete bullshit.
2118  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: June 28, 2013, 09:19:21 AM
A single person could assemble 10 Minirigs in an 8 hour working day. That's 150 Th/s in a month.

Mabsark, you're a funny guy. No one is forcing you to buy ASICMINER shares at 3.4 BTC each. Your calculations would be correct if the case was that BFL was sending the order in a week from ordering, if you were to order today you think that you will get your order in 6 months? I ordered a single from BFL almost a year ago and I still have nothing. ASICMINER will have chips that will be superior to Bitfury before they start shipping and I don't believe that Kncminer will actually deliver 28 nm chips.

There's no evidence whatsoever that AM will have chips better than BitFury. That's just pure hype with no evidence whatsoever to back it up.

And yes, I know you can't buy a BFL and get in within a week. I've stated numerous times now that that's the reason why AM is so overpriced. Use your brain for 1 minute and think about the consequences of being able to buy an ASIC miner off the shelf from BFL or anyone else for that matter.

It's blatantly obvious that under such circumstances, AM will not sell as much hardware and it won't be able to sell that hardware for ridiculous prices, which means less income from hardware sales.

If you could buy a BFL off the shelf right now, how much would you pay for an AM USB miner?

But you can't.  And you won't be able to for at least 3 months, likely 4.  And by that time difficulty will be 10-15X what it is now.  ASICMiner is filling a niche.  Yes, it is a temporary advantage, but it will continue to exist for a while yet.

That's what I've been saying all along and that's precisely why AM is overpriced. My argument is not that BFL is the greatest or that AM is the worst. My argument is simply that AM is overpriced basically because it has a monopoly.

Right now it is not overvalued because there is no threat to the monopoly.  Once one appears, if prices don't fall it may be overvalued.
2119  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: USA/Canada [Group Buy #2 @136/50] ASICMiner Erupter USB 2.03636 each @ 5 units on: June 28, 2013, 09:01:27 AM
I did, but it looks like I'm the only one.
2120  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: June 28, 2013, 08:59:07 AM
A single person could assemble 10 Minirigs in an 8 hour working day. That's 150 Th/s in a month.

Mabsark, you're a funny guy. No one is forcing you to buy ASICMINER shares at 3.4 BTC each. Your calculations would be correct if the case was that BFL was sending the order in a week from ordering, if you were to order today you think that you will get your order in 6 months? I ordered a single from BFL almost a year ago and I still have nothing. ASICMINER will have chips that will be superior to Bitfury before they start shipping and I don't believe that Kncminer will actually deliver 28 nm chips.

There's no evidence whatsoever that AM will have chips better than BitFury. That's just pure hype with no evidence whatsoever to back it up.

And yes, I know you can't buy a BFL and get in within a week. I've stated numerous times now that that's the reason why AM is so overpriced. Use your brain for 1 minute and think about the consequences of being able to buy an ASIC miner off the shelf from BFL or anyone else for that matter.

It's blatantly obvious that under such circumstances, AM will not sell as much hardware and it won't be able to sell that hardware for ridiculous prices, which means less income from hardware sales.

If you could buy a BFL off the shelf right now, how much would you pay for an AM USB miner?

But you can't.  And you won't be able to for at least 3 months, likely 4.  And by that time difficulty will be 10-15X what it is now.  ASICMiner is filling a niche.  Yes, it is a temporary advantage, but it will continue to exist for a while yet.
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