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2101  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 26, 2013, 10:36:15 PM
For the record, if I held DZZ or other good short positions, I would liquidate all of them tomorrow.

can you be more specific about your time frame here? sure it could have a reaction back up, but how many have money to spare to support higher gold prices?

Mañana? Before June 28th.

If you think of paper gold as a form of credit, the collapse in prices means that credit is drying up. Nobody wants to lend their asset out anymore.

Okay... paper gold is a form of credit.  So, by selling a claim I own on gold, somehow I'm expressing that I want to hold onto my physical?  How does that work?  Aren't the lenders having their locked up assets returned to a liquid position, thus raising physical supply?
2102  Economy / Services / Re: What would simple script/bot cost me ? on: June 26, 2013, 10:30:18 PM
Not so simple as reading HTML folks.

Websockets Wink

Except it is:
https://github.com/jnicklas/capybara

With that, I can run the site in a full browser and read the live DOM as I please.
2103  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 26, 2013, 10:22:30 PM
I didn't realize this was the ripple thread. Excuse me while I go look for the MtGox thread. Roll Eyes

We all treat this as the lounge thread.  If you want to talk about MtGox, bring up an interesting point.
2104  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 26, 2013, 10:21:01 PM
www.ripplescam.org

also tradefort's btc giveaway Cheesy

ripple is a long term scam with serious problems. i could steal over 100 btc today if i wanted to, using its flawed system to trade fake ious with legit ones seamlessly out of peoples wallets. to compare ripple to bitcoin is like comparing unicycles to ferraris.

You can only replace the legit ones with fake ones in the accounts of people who granted you trust.  It would be up to them to cover their losses or let it "ripple".
2105  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 26, 2013, 10:19:28 PM
No. But only foolish people who care so little about money not to do a basic level of research will fall into this. If someone is careless enough to simply assume that extending trust is meaningless, without doing a modicum of research, he shouldn't be using Ripple. My advice to newbies: if you aren't willing to learn about Ripple, don't use it. Same goes for bitcoin -- lots of lost coins out there due to very careless people.

You should only trust an established business. If you want to trust your friend, just like IRL, he may never pay you back. I don't understand this idea that people need to trust everyone they know. That's just part of a marketing scheme to make Ripple more relevant to the average user. If my friends or family needed money, we'd figure out a way to get it to them. I don't need to extend trust to every single person (so that I never know whether or not my funds are liquid). If someone needs BTC, I can get them where they need to go easily and without any risk via Ripple.

I would agree insofar that people will make mistakes and get burned. Just like with everything else.

But that's just it.  Ripple is being marketed as a social network not a trusted exchange backbone system.
2106  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [700GH/s] p2pool: Decentralized, DoS-resistant, Hop-Proof pool on: June 26, 2013, 09:58:07 PM
1. Try the guide posted above.
2. If you can't get your latency down, mine with a public node.
3. If you want to mine with a public node, and also want to reduce variance, give this a try: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=234841.0
2107  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-06-25 The DEA Just Seized 11 Bitcoins on: June 26, 2013, 09:45:06 PM
Interesting question:
What will they do with this "illegal" currency that they are now in possession of?
Send it to somewhere even more interesting by the looks of things. Not followed it far but its gone through an address that's had more than 10k coins go through it.

They probably just sold it on MtGox Tongue.
2108  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 26, 2013, 09:32:54 PM
Ripple is great, IMO. It has incredible potential as a payment system and is far more versatile than bitcoin in that regard. In that way, since you can move in and out of so many currencies and IOU issuers, Ripple could be very useful for arbitraging. Too early at this point, though.

Ripple will either end with a whimper, as people realize what a bad idea it is, or with a bang, as people find out what a bad idea it is.

Bad idea, why? Do tell. If, like most detractors, you base this on the debt/trust system's potential for collapse, you should probably stay away from bitcoin exchanges as well.

So trusting a registered, established business is just as risky as trusting someone you don't know anything about who happens to be a friend of a friend of a friend?
2109  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: The Impending Stalemate on Mining Hardware and ROI on: June 26, 2013, 09:31:14 PM
If difficulty rises too high people stop buying hardware and inefficient hardware drops out.  Difficulty corrects.  End of story until the next price bubble hits.
2110  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: USB ASIC Miners will never ROI at 1 BTC/device on: June 26, 2013, 09:29:45 PM
...
buy 11th unit next month to compensate a 10% rise in difficulty. and pocket 1.5BTC

rinse and repeat for a constant never ending 1.5BTC income per month.

Network hash rate increased ~ 600% in 4 months (from 25TH/s to 150TH/s) since ASICs started shipping...and the ramping up of ASIC production is just getting started...by many companies that haven't even begun shipping yet.  Expect a market flood.

I laugh at your 10% increase every month.  Do the math, and a little forecasting both optimistic and pessimistic, either way, the increase in ASIC hashing power will crush your returns faster than a Black Wednesday on the DOW.

Denial is a river in Egypt my friend.

I've been mining for 2 years now.  Made most of my BTC in the beginning when hashing power was within grasp of the common man.  I'd like to get into ASIC but I just can't justify the prices, especially if you have to pay in BTC.  I rather pay good old USD.

Just recently stop GPU mining.  I've reached my break even point on my GPU mining.  At current USD/BTC, it's just not worth it.  I'm willing to bet that a USB miner will no longer be worth mining in less than 6 months (1 BTC/device) from now and you will not recoup your 1 BTC you spent to get it.  I'll re-visit this post in 6 months and post an update.

400 MH/s USB miners cost me $2 a year in electricity.  Are you sure they won't be worth mining on in 6 months?
depends whats your cost of electricity and the use? 2.5watts or 3? and relative to the value of BTC? since you cannot pay your electric with btc.

2.5 watts at $0.09/KWh

At the moment, electrical costs are roughly 1.5% of revenue.  So you are claiming (BTC Price)/(BTC Difficulty) will be 1/67th of it's current value within 6 months?  That's a pretty bold prediction
2111  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 26, 2013, 08:45:29 PM
BTC-e, Bter and Vicurex are all still down

What's going on, DDoS?

I don't know, it wouldn't surprise me.  LTC gains value due to the Gox news of it being included soon, suddenly the alt-currency exchanges are all under attack - but from who?  (US government or banks? (same thing)).  It seems very unlikely that they'd all have system failures simultaneously.  Who stands to gain from this?

Traders who want to shake confidence.
2112  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: June 26, 2013, 08:41:17 PM
Wasn't the bottom somewhere in 2009?

Fine, a 6.25 year bull market.  One which possibly topped a few weeks ago.

So, again, were is the 4 year bull run?

what year is it again?


2015, obviously.  Tongue

Edit: Nice delete, sir.  Tongue

Nice quote Tongue

Anyway, sorry.  That figure came from the total cycle length (top to top).  We are over 6 years past the previous bull market top.  With an average 4 year timespan from top to top, we are due for a bear market and may have just put in the top in May.
2113  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: June 26, 2013, 08:35:31 PM
what year is it again?


2015, clearly
2114  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Boycott 0.8.2 on: June 26, 2013, 08:31:24 PM
The real problem with blocking "dust" transactions is that it makes it more difficult to develop colored coin infrastructure using bitcoin. And to me, that is the most powerful application of decentralized payment networks. Imposing a barrier to developing that killer app on btc means that it will be developed first, or at least much more fluently, on another network or alt chain. I don't really think it's necessary to boycott btc client upgrades though. The market will sort out whether this is the killer app that I predict, or whether bitcoin is best used as a store of value as opposed to a payment network.

I just read https://docs.google.com/document/d/1AnkP_cVZTCMLIzw4DvsW6M8Q2JC0lIzrTLuoWu2z1BE/edit.  Why can't you just use small transactions instead of dust below the threashold?

What if tomorrow the devs again decide to raise the minimum limit? What will happen to earlier colored coins?

There is no set minimum only a default.  Lower the min fee to relay setting for your node (default is 0.1 mBTC in 0.8.2) and you lower the dust threshold (54.3% of prior value).  If enough miners and relay nodes operate with a lower value it doesn't really matter what the default is.  However the trend has been that the min fee has gone DOWN (in nominal terms) over time due to the deflationary nature of Bitcoin and the rising exchange rate.




I think you under estimate the power of defaults.  Nobody changes the default, and no one was ever going to change the default.  

This is a consequential change, because one of the key qualities of bitcoin is divisibility.   This change shatters divisibility.  Colored coin people also suffered, but they are a minority.

The gain was that all the spam from satoshi dice, which is considerable, was lessened.

It's all about pros and cons.

In my view this was satoshi's project, and now it's gavins.  Huge shoes to fill, but he's done a great job so far.  

We should however be vigilant over future changes, in a reasoned way, and I think that's exactly what the core dev team want to happen.

Change one line here:
main.cpp:55:
int64 CTransaction::nMinRelayTxFee = 10000;

Build binaries.  Make said binaries publicly available.  Accept the market's decision.  Anything else is just pointless bitching.  In open source software, disagreements are resolved through action, not words.
2115  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 26, 2013, 08:20:33 PM
You can melt down all (legitimate) gold coins and put them in whatever form you want.  You can not transform one cryptocurrency to another without finding a trading partner and agreeing on a conversion rate.

Securitization.

Not quite the same, more like an alloy, but still a transformative effect.

Still, even more so than my trade example, it relies on a trustworthy counterparty.
2116  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 26, 2013, 08:16:43 PM
This ad has completely sidetracked the discussion. if the discussion continues can someone create a new thread for it.

Ok... so all you people that CONSTANTLY want to fork the discussion.. What do you expect this thread to be?  It seems like people JUST want news from friedcat and nothing else.  If that is what you want: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=49840;sa=showPosts

OTHERWISE to me this thread is all encompassing talk about things related to ASICMINER.  Sure it would be nice to have separate threads for everything... but without a subforum those threads just get lost.  Till such time as we get a subforum... or an official forum... or something else this will remain the situation.  You are not going to convince people, well at least me, to split up into multiple threads when those threads are scattered over several different forums on bitcointalk.

To the topic at hand WOOT DIVIDEND DAY! Now I can pay my rent!

And google translate for his latest post:
Quote
I baked cat, as ASICMINER one of the founders recognized rockxie statement.

0.89 pricing calculation is based on all USB sales. But the rebate calculation time is to begin at 0.99 pricing, rebate amount is (by 0.99 to get the total number of USB * 0.1).

China, Canada and the European Union we have agents, so if there is no change in the event of any agency, we do not sell directly to these areas, buy we do not support.

LOL @ baked cat
2117  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: June 26, 2013, 08:06:33 PM
Watch the comments.  When everybody starts agreeing, we will be at the bottom.

The bottom of a 4 years bull market?  Cheesy

What stocks are you talking about that are in a 4 year bull market?  I'm in the US, and our markets are at the top of a 7 year bull run.
2118  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 26, 2013, 07:45:16 PM
tl;dr - it's not a scam, but it's also not innovative and doesn't offer anything that bitcoin doesn't.

this: I have yet to see  compelling reasoning contrary to this point
that's the typical crypto get rich quick opportunistic view

I don't see how. When I first ran into Bitcoin, I didn't see it as an investment but rather as a pretty useful tool. It was only months later when I took the opportunity to buy in when I did. Litecoin does the same thing as Bitcoin, yeah, but to me this is like starting a second fork simply for the sake of.  Personally, I will choose to stick to the older, longer fork because to me, it's more valid. Until LTC does something Bitcoin can't, I will stay on the majority fork.
I by principle support and like all form of crypto-currency, also I like any form and shape of gold/silver coins.If I invest on buffalo gold coins my bias is towards that coins and i can make a dozen of excuses (marketing and promotion) why the buffalo gold coins are better that any other gold coins and any other form of gold, why ? simple i like to drive up the demand for buffalo coins so i can buy more land/food/service/products with them, same goes for LTC and BTC, LTC can perform the same functions like BTC. Does the Australian gold coins need to be better that the buffalo gold coins ? nope, if are 99% pure gold is the same thing and can perform the same function.
The only scenario where one can like bitcoin and dislike litecoins/any_alt_coins is when they thread the crypto currency like a get rich quick scheme so having a competing scheme can leech suckers/idiots/pig/late adopters/you_name_it from the favourite sheme and that will ruin the plans of getting rich on the fastest way possible

You can melt down all (legitimate) gold coins and put them in whatever form you want.  You can not transform one cryptocurrency to another without finding a trading partner and agreeing on a conversion rate.
2119  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: June 26, 2013, 07:38:32 PM

I've searched on that principle of maximum ruin, but I didn't found a lot of information. Could you detail it more please?

Thanks!

It's basically an application of the Pareto Principle.

Quote
The Pareto principle (also known as the 80–20 rule, the law of the vital few, and the principle of factor sparsity) states that, for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes.

In other words, 20% of people will benefit from the big moves, and the other 80% will be the cannon fodder.


Do you apply the same logic to the stock market?

Many comments on MarketWatch, Yahoo Finance and others are all about how the market is now finally crashing.

Watch the comments.  When everybody starts agreeing, we will be at the bottom.
2120  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: A Complete Guide to P2Pool - Merged Mining (BTC/NMC/DVC/IXC/I0C) plus LTC, Linux on: June 26, 2013, 08:02:13 AM
When I try to compile devcoin, it says make: *** No rule to make target 'bitcoind'. Stop.

Any ideas? I followed instructions accurately.

try
make devcoind
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