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2101  Economy / Speculation / Re: wow, bitcoin's astro birth chart is full on! on: July 17, 2013, 06:41:33 PM
Bitcoin's zodiac forecast for Wednesday, 17 July 2013

I'm always reluctant to offer good news to someone born under your sign. Where some people will happily seize upon such information and allow themselves to be cheered by the very promise, there is something about your character that provokes a different reaction. You are more inclined to be slightly suspicious, to assume that I must be referring to some other Capricorn. Or that, even if I insist that I do mean you, I have done my sums wrong. But despite all your misgivings, things really are looking up for you now.

Fits my feel of the market perfectly.
2102  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where we are. on: July 17, 2013, 06:39:57 PM
I tried looking at some shorter term regressions, and I have to say that it only makes the picture more confusing.

Finally, i have settled on an even longer term than I was using when I started the thread that seems to put things into a pretty good focus. Given that, I am seeing a quiescent equilibrium point at about $114-$115, and I expect exchange rates to seek this level in the mid-term, or until we start to see some sort of concerted pressure one way or the other.

You're tracking only MtGox USD orderbook volume, right? I wonder if your analysis may be invalidated due to the fact that MtGox USD is currently illiquid trapped asset at best, and pure fiction at worst. There is strong suspicion that MtGox is artificially pumping 'virtual fiat' into their orderbook since May, which mostly coincides with the 'active management' artifact timeframe that you mentioned.

In my opinion, latest MtGox orderbook dynamics confirm this suspicion. Think about it, since July 12 MtGox orderbooks show almost linear inflow of up to 1 million USD per day, while other exchanges' orderbooks are pretty much flat. I mean, seriously?! Someone is putting 1 million USD per day into exchange that is NOT processing fiat withdrawals, but not into other LIQUID exchanges have NO such restrictions, and BETTER exchange rate? Are you kidding me?

If this is indeed the case, your high equilibrium assessment is invalid because it is calculated based on 'virtual fiat bid' numbers that have nothing to do with reality, but are just smoke and mirrors to create an illusion of high demand.

I'd love to be proven wrong on this of course but Occam's razor is a fearsome weapon.

Roll Eyes

Occam's razor would say that it is a simple case of fiat banks being shitty as usual.... not some crazy conspiracy threory.
2103  Economy / Speculation / Re: Financial Risk Analytics-Subscription Service on: July 17, 2013, 06:23:25 PM
I see this thread popping up regularly at the top in my 'new replies to your posts' section but I am not interested.

Is there a way to stop this from happening? (without removing the posts I made here, or is that the only way?)

click unwatch

That removes it from the watchlist if it is on there.  He wants to remove it from the "Show new replies to your posts".  The only way to accomplish that is to delete all your posts in the thread.
2104  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: July 17, 2013, 07:09:16 AM
I guess that everyone is selling at a loss @ bitstamp.
Any better alternatives? Smiley

Depends where you live.
2105  Economy / Services / Re: i need websites on: July 17, 2013, 06:27:56 AM
Could you please elaborate on what type of websites you're looking to create and what time frame you would find reasonable.

+1
2106  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: VideoBTC on: July 17, 2013, 06:22:53 AM
Just found a new site, looks pretty good for you newbies.

Site Link:
VideoBTC

Only 6 videos on there to watch right now, the site did just launch though.
Edit: Apparently that changes, it has been going up and down as I've been watching them.

Earn 1 credit per video watched.
Earn 10 free credits after you earn a minimum of 10 credits.

Each credit is apparently worth 10 uBTC (0.00001 BTC)

From the FAQ:
As of 7/15/2013 payments will be automatically processed in bulk bi-weekly. VideoBTC.com is brand new, so as the number of users continues to rise, so will the frequency of payments.


Hi new users!

I'm going to be straight up and tell you this is a referral link instead of hiding it: http://www.videobtc.com/?ref=0184e4f464

+1 for videobtc
2107  Economy / Economics / Re: UK Downgraded from LOL to LMAO on: July 17, 2013, 06:18:58 AM
someone just needs to create a new cryptocoin that will give rewards so that there is a 4% inflation indefinatly....

problem solved

It's quite possible you are joking, but I'll answer anyway because I'm in the mood:

Are you serious? I doubt this would solve anything. For example freicoin has something that has a similar effect: demurrage. It causes money to lose value over time (similar to inflation). It's slightly better than inflation because it doesn't do that by increasing the money supply and giving the newly printed money to a select few (as is done with state-enforced fiat).

The main problem with this approach is that it resembles "bad money". Noone wants to use it for storing wealth because the crap keeps losing value. Such money can only be forced on people (as we see with state-sponsored fiat money). It's highly unlikely it would be used voluntarily.

The whole "the economy must grow" mantra is a farce anyway. An economy can grow, of course, but in general it's more like a living organism: it must inhale and exhale. An inflationary currency forced on it is like injecting growth hormones at arbitrary locations of the body. It will lead to tumors and a gernerally sick condition. Inflation is a hidden tax. The parasitical governments of the world cannot tax the wealth gains in a deflationary environment and therefore need to force inflationary crap on us.

An consistently growing economy is also very much like a living organism: cancer.  It grows and grows, consuming everything in it's path.
2108  Other / Meta / Re: Temporary Ban for Press Guideline Violators on: July 17, 2013, 05:36:25 AM
Seriously, just fix the posts. Being a mod means that you're more of janitor instead of a decider, so just deal with it. If someone gives you flak and reverts the date back to the incorrect format after you've changed it, then request a temp ban. Beyond that, even if every thread was misformatted, it would take all of ten minutes to fix every thread posted in a day, if that. Don't worry, you get paid for it.

Shit... moderator is a paid position?  I'll clean troll spam somewhere from some BTC Smiley.
2109  Economy / Computer hardware / Re: [WTS] 2GH/Sec Mining Gaming Rig on: July 17, 2013, 05:31:44 AM
Selling my 2 of my Rigs, original thread can be found here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=257669.0

Good luck.  For the same price, I can get 16 ASICMiner USB's for 5.376 GH/s that will use 40W.  Your best bet is to resell 1 (or 2) of the GPUs, and the CPU.  Then get an i7 and a big data drive and sell the rig as a gaming PC.
2110  Bitcoin / Mining software (miners) / Re: CGMINER ASIC FPGA GPU overc monit fanspd RPC linux/win/osx/mip/r-pi 3.3.1 on: July 17, 2013, 05:22:41 AM
If your usb hub is a usb2 hub and not a usb3 hub you will be far better off moving to the latest version of cgminer instead. The only reason to stick with the old version of cgminer is if you have multiple usb1.1 devices on a usb3 hub for there remains an instability there that we've been unable to debug so far.

Is that the cause for this:

Code:
Jul 16 18:37:12 server1 cgminer[31418]: Accepted 03e8a8b7 Diff 65/1 AMU 2 pool 0
Jul 16 18:37:12 server1 cgminer[31418]: AMU1: Comms error (werr=-7 amt=0)
Jul 16 18:37:12 server1 cgminer[31418]: AMU0: Comms error (werr=-7 amt=0)
Jul 16 18:37:13 server1 cgminer[31418]: AMU2: libusb pipe error, trying to clear

Works fine with 1 USB Erupter on the USB3 hub but it doesn't like multiples.

Let me know if I can help with any debugging.

I had some erupters on a hub that wasn't delivering the power it should have.  Erupters on that hub would give me that error.  After I wired the hub up to my PSU I don't see them any more.

Might not be the only cause, but that was it for me.
2111  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: July 17, 2013, 05:20:41 AM
i thought that maybe we demand a higher tx fee Smiley
that would be cool if AM only included tx that payed higher

that would give us more profit too!!! i think its already going on, i never tested it though, but i never really seen any of my transactions on a AM block that i can remember, but i usually use the minium like .001 or something

From the linked block above:

Quote
Transaction Fees   0.0146 BTC

It is similarly small for other blocks (at least the most recent 10 with one exception of 0.09 in fees).  I don't think your theory holds.
2112  Economy / Speculation / Re: SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal on: July 17, 2013, 05:16:44 AM
The same can be said about any other market because you can define custom intervals everywhere. The only thin Bitcoin doesnt have is gaps between trading hours. I think this actually makes for a better representation of the market "will". Open and close prices are by definition (maybe yours if different?) the price at which a candle opens or closes (hence starts or ends).

My point is that other markets have naturally defined gaps for their days and weeks, so it makes more sense to look at the open and close for those markets.
2113  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: A Complete Guide to P2Pool - Merged Mining (BTC/NMC/DVC/IXC/I0C) plus LTC, Linux on: July 17, 2013, 05:13:27 AM

I was trying to find that for my install, but couldn't remember what it's called or where it's located. Thanks for the link!

So you are aware, there is a memory leak currently if you use the auto-refesh option.  It will eat all of your memory fairly quickly.

I decided to just fix it:
Quote
This fixes it for me:
https://github.com/hardcpp/P2PoolExtendedFrontEnd/pull/17

For watchers, until this pull is merged, feel free to use my repo:
https://github.com/yrral86/P2PoolExtendedFrontEnd
2114  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: A Complete Guide to P2Pool - Merged Mining (BTC/NMC/DVC/IXC/I0C) plus LTC, Linux on: July 17, 2013, 04:11:38 AM
That highly depends on the browser...


I was trying to find that for my install, but couldn't remember what it's called or where it's located. Thanks for the link!

So you are aware, there is a memory leak currently if you use the auto-refesh option.  It will eat all of your memory fairly quickly.

According to the bug report[1] it affects firefox and chrome.

1. https://github.com/hardcpp/P2PoolExtendedFrontEnd/issues/5

I haven't tried firefox, but I can verify the issue is there with the latest Chrome on 64 bit Linux.
2115  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: A Complete Guide to P2Pool - Merged Mining (BTC/NMC/DVC/IXC/I0C) plus LTC, Linux on: July 17, 2013, 03:35:49 AM

I was trying to find that for my install, but couldn't remember what it's called or where it's located. Thanks for the link!

So you are aware, there is a memory leak currently if you use the auto-refesh option.  It will eat all of your memory fairly quickly.
2116  Economy / Speculation / Re: SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal on: July 17, 2013, 03:00:24 AM
Quote
I saw this in your other thread too: But why is your red line doing that? What are you 'connecting' with it? Looks cooked.

You can draw supports/resistances in different ways. One way is to only connect tops or bottoms of candles which gives you an outer bound of where you can expect the price to go or you draw an "internal trend line" by which you connect only closing/opening prices of candles. The second method gets rid of the variance that some outliers produce with big orders by shooting up or down only to return to the mean within the same candle.
The trend line would be considered broken if 2 or 3 full candles close outside of it.

Agreed on eliminating outliers, but the issue is the 24/7 nature of bitcoin.  There is no open and no close, and one can easily shift the candle definition to show different bodies.
2117  Economy / Speculation / Re: SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal on: July 17, 2013, 02:48:18 AM
Looks cooked.

It is cooked.

The trendline was broken.

Don't worry, his will break too.
2118  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: July 17, 2013, 02:41:41 AM
I'm not an idiot.  I canceled my withdrawals and transferred everything out in Bitcoin the day the withdrawal notice went up.

Not necessarily a bad idea.... depending on how close to the front of the queue you were.

I've seen several reports of funds being received in the past few days.

Where?

Several posts on these forums.... I'm too lazy to find them.  And of course, take forum posts with a grain of salt.
2119  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: looking for the next Bitcoin experience on: July 17, 2013, 02:06:30 AM
Try storing some btc in your brain: brainwallet.org
2120  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: looking for the next Bitcoin experience on: July 17, 2013, 02:03:24 AM
Get an ASIC.  Make MORE bitcoins  Cheesy

  • bought 6 USB miners (currently mining 3 using bitminter)
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