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2101  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 17, 2013, 01:12:05 AM

No matter which whale wins, there will be a feast.
2102  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 17, 2013, 01:05:37 AM

Well tried, but no.


two whales with opposing interests ?

Can there be so many whales in a small market like this?

two whales is not so many
2103  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: July 17, 2013, 01:04:36 AM
You can only make money with money. Just like in the current financial system.

Bitcoin isn't a magic money machine.  That would be a scam.  Your statement is true no matter what the asset, so long as it is a real good.

The part you are missing though is time.  You can only accumulate value with labor.  It doesn't matter if it is shoveling rock or trading companies or assets.  Labor is the key here and no matter what you want to accumulate you need to invest your labor into accumulating it.

Which law of economics is that?  Grin

Warren Buffet doesn't have the bank account the size of a planet by working 7200 hours a day. Work smart.

This is off topic, but he has certainly spent his share of time studying his potential investments.  Yes, work smart.  But you still have to work.

Now back to your regularly scheduled wishing friedcat would let us know what was up and wondering why his node sucks.
2104  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: July 17, 2013, 12:57:00 AM
I've been thinking about the low number of transactions per block issue and the assumption that we aren't a very well connected node.  This made me realize that if we aren't a very well connected node, then our orphaned block rate would be higher than normal as others finding blocks around the same time will be quicker to 'spread the news' and will therefore be the winner.

I then checked the blockchain.info orphaned block page https://blockchain.info/orphaned-blocks and sure enough, a high percentage of orphaned blocks are from AsicMiner.

I haven't run the numbers but I have a feeling that we are leaving a HUGE amount of bitcoin on the table.

Not only are we missing out on a huge amount of transaction fee's, but we're solving blocks that we aren't even getting credit for.  It seems to me that peering off a well connected node should be a simple fix.

And once again I'm wondering if friedcat should look into p2pool.  Even though getting better connected shouldn't be hard, with p2pool you have 2 different p2p networks that should each broadcast your blocks/transactions giving you even lower latency.
2105  Bitcoin / Mining software (miners) / Re: CGMINER ASIC FPGA GPU overc monit fanspd RPC linux/win/osx/mip/r-pi 3.3.1 on: July 17, 2013, 12:08:30 AM
I've had a similar problem with cgminer 3.3.2

There's a 3.3.2?  I'm still using 3.3.1, which is working great for me with USB Erupters.  Of course I only have 15 of them with USB 2.0 Hubs.

Opps I think I meant 3.3.1, but mostly I meant latest master from github (805672fb51f4219e8c5848dc761509d32bffde9f -- I think it identifies itself as 3.3.2, sorry I forgot it wasn't released yet). I tried master from github first when I couldn't get 3.3.1 to work. I was about to blame the hub when I decided to try building 3.1.1 as a hail mary.

They're still working on the USB 3.0 Hub support.  Which was the reason I bought USB 2.0 Hubs.

Glad your working at least.
Sam

For me USB 3.0 hubs do not work in USB 3.0 slots, but if I plug them into USB 2.0 slots they work fine.  It might be worth a try if you already have the hardware.

Oh, right. I forgot to mention that I excluded the hub as the problem before going to 3.1.1 by reproducing the findings with the USB Eruptors plugged in directly to the computer. I observed the same behavior where individually they work fine but if two were installed each device would mine for a bit and then enter into some sort of standby mode with solid leds (they don't both enter that state at the same time--one will get there sooner than the other). Then after a few seconds both will start hashing again simultaneously. That pattern just keeps repeating itself. I didn't time it but my guess is ~15-30sec. The computer itself is an Celeron-based Intel NUC that only has USB 2.0 ports.

I don't know if it matters but the the second miner came from BTCguild and was "branded" (I assume via the Luke-JR method) but the first comes from CanaryInTheMine and is unbranded. The udev rules didn't care.

Looking back through the logs did finally notice one thing. When running the 3.2.x or github version, this happens once per reboot when cgminer is starting up:

Jul 16 00:47:02 ohms kernel: [   10.527272] cp210x ttyUSB0: cp210x converter now disconnected from ttyUSB0
Jul 16 00:47:02 ohms kernel: [   10.527304] cp210x 2-1.1.2:1.0: device disconnected
Jul 16 00:47:02 ohms kernel: [   10.588515] cp210x ttyUSB1: cp210x converter now disconnected from ttyUSB1
Jul 16 00:47:02 ohms kernel: [   10.588549] cp210x 2-1.1.4:1.0: device disconnected

When this happens /dev/ttyUSB0 and /dev/ttyUSB1 disappear and never return. But cgminer 3.2.x is still able to hash in spurts. I had to reboot to get 3.1.1 to work.

3.2+ is doing that.  It no longer uses the ttyUSB devices so it removes them to disable the driver so that cgminer can use raw USB through libusb.
2106  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's going to blow... on: July 17, 2013, 12:05:27 AM
5.  MtGox gets caught back up on USD withdrawals.

You should have probably stopped there.

This is a long term plan with several iterations of 1-4.

I agree 5 will take 1 - 1.5 months from today.
2107  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where will we be in 90 days? on: July 17, 2013, 12:02:51 AM
Everyone, cryptocurrency needs 2 more things at this exact moment for it to even hit that 450 dollar mark ol boy mentioned earlier:

1 Much MUCH more attention - Cryptocurrency is STILL not very mainstream.  Some people here and there in passing mention it, but it isn't widely known yet...which leads us to the second (LARGER) problem of

2 adoption.  I guarantee you that if 20% of the fortune 100 Commerce were to switch over and allow bit-coin in addition to Credit cards for both online and for in store transactions, that it would A) increase in awareness, B) rise in popularity as there is now a different way to establish and trade your digital value for goods with real "inherent value" 


At this point in time, btc and other alt coin prices are purely driven by consumer speculation and the supply and demand of feeding that speculation with available alt-coins for sell. 

Large businesses will not switch until they have a means of hedging.  They are not going to pay someone like bitpay to convert for them when they can cut out the fees.  However, they don't want currency risk, so they need to hedge.  While icbit.se and bitfinex might be acceptable to some in the community, it would not fly with a major corporation.  When the Bitcoin backed ETF becomes available an options market will develop that will allow them to hedge their risk.  Once this market develops some decent liquidity we will see the fish we land start to grow until we finally land our first whale.
2108  Bitcoin / Mining software (miners) / Re: CGMINER ASIC FPGA GPU overc monit fanspd RPC linux/win/osx/mip/r-pi 3.3.1 on: July 16, 2013, 11:45:21 PM
I've had a similar problem with cgminer 3.3.2

There's a 3.3.2?  I'm still using 3.3.1, which is working great for me with USB Erupters.  Of course I only have 15 of them with USB 2.0 Hubs.

Opps I think I meant 3.3.1, but mostly I meant latest master from github (805672fb51f4219e8c5848dc761509d32bffde9f -- I think it identifies itself as 3.3.2, sorry I forgot it wasn't released yet). I tried master from github first when I couldn't get 3.3.1 to work. I was about to blame the hub when I decided to try building 3.1.1 as a hail mary.

They're still working on the USB 3.0 Hub support.  Which was the reason I bought USB 2.0 Hubs.

Glad your working at least.
Sam

For me USB 3.0 hubs do not work in USB 3.0 slots, but if I plug them into USB 2.0 slots they work fine.  It might be worth a try if you already have the hardware.
2109  Economy / Economics / Re: UK Downgraded from LOL to LMAO on: July 16, 2013, 11:40:10 PM
What happens to gold price if interest goes up, does it drop?

The best answer is maybe.

Rising rates are deflationary for the money supply.  Historically, with gold backed money, this meant gold price would rise as people needed gold to pay the higher interest.  In modern times, however there is no such link.  One might argue gold could drop due to people needing to raise liquid capital.  But then again, one could argue that gold could rise because the large institutions shorting it would need to close out their positions to recover their collateral.

If interest rates go up every mortgage taken out in London and the South East of England since 2005 is going to go into default. It's not possible for mortgage holders to absorb exponential increases in the cost of lending when wages are at best stagnant and food prices are going up 14.3%.

Many of those mortgages are interest only with no repayment vehicle. The banks will be fucked.

There have to be some fixed rate mortgages out there, but I agree there will be trouble.  Again, history says gold will tend to be a fall back and will recover first.  But there are new forces at play this time, so I say maybe.
2110  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: July 16, 2013, 11:09:34 PM
You can only make money with money. Just like in the current financial system.

Bitcoin isn't a magic money machine.  That would be a scam.  Your statement is true no matter what the asset, so long as it is a real good.

The part you are missing though is time.  You can only accumulate value with labor.  It doesn't matter if it is shoveling rock or trading companies or assets.  Labor is the key here and no matter what you want to accumulate you need to invest your labor into accumulating it.
2111  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: Help me pick a pool on: July 16, 2013, 11:00:49 PM
Because you can't point that much hashing power at your Bitcoin-QT client.

Why is that? Sounds incredible.

The Bitcoin clients were initially designed to work with CPU mining which was fairly low burden on the client.  But now we have exponentially increased the hashing power with high end GPU's, GPU clusters and now ASIC's and the Bitcoin clients don't/can't scale with that load.

That is one of the main reasons for pools.  Pool Operators have gone through the trouble/cost of developing high performance Bitcoind's and pool server software which if very vertical market type software to keep up with the load and they often have had trouble with the ASIC loads.

So if you want to solo mine with high end ASIC's download some pool software and set it up.  I don't have time for that.

Good Luck with it.
Sam
Not only that, but the bitcoin developers have tried to distance themselves from mining entirely, not adopting the efficient forms of the high performance mining protocols that have evolved around high mining hash rate speeds, instead dissociating the work of mining to others (indirectly pools). While this may seem crazy, it is also indirectly accepting that it is virtually impossible for solo mining to make any sort of reasonable sense any more. I lament this fact, for I still think that all miners should have solo mining as their final backup should all pools fail, as a way to guarantee the bitcoin network remains secure, if not necessarily smoothly/consistently profitable for its miners.

Hmm... it's almost like we need a distributed way of breaking up block rewards.

Oh wait, that's p2pool.
2112  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 16, 2013, 09:34:13 PM

problem is, allot of those miners won't get ROI for many months. Knowing this, I would expect most (except for those who took out loans) to choose to wait for higher prices before getting their fiat back.

Exactly, I dont see why on this forums people seem to think that miners want to get ROI as soon as possible. I think 90% of them will just mine and hoard, for years

Most of GPU miners didn't want ROI as soon as possible, as I explained earlier - they counted on reselling their GPUs, and they were mostly hobbyist. But I'm a miner myself, I know a lot of miners, I've seen in first person who are the customers of companies like KnC and how much they are spending, and you have to understand that this last media bubble exposed Bitcoin to a lot of new and uneducated people who run profit calculators at current difficulty (without having their miners yet), they do not even understand that difficulty is growing exponentially, and at the end of the day there is a "gold rush" in which a lot of new people is entering mining because they think they will get rich quick... So we have now a) a lot of individuals investing money they cannot afford to lose on BTC miners, and as you surely know there is a "get-rich-quick" feeling on BTC - they think they will recoup their investment FAST, and this is why they are putting in this game more money they should; b) there are more and more "professional" miners that are investing money in mining with the only intention of generating profit - they will run their operations as a business. That people has to pay for huge electricity costs, renting of industrial places where they will host their operations, etc. etc. etc. A lot of fiat expenses to cover.

During the GPU era, I rarely saw a) and b) miners, most were small-time hobbyist, running their rigs in their bedrooms. During this change to ASIC, I'm seeing a lot of both a) and b). This people needs to recoup fiat ASAP.

I can't imagine too much of an influx of people that don't understand mining economics that spend money on anything more than a jalepeno

+1

The big guys know what they are doing or are at least seeking the advisement of someone who does.
2113  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [1100GH/s] p2pool: Decentralized, DoS-resistant, Hop-Proof pool on: July 16, 2013, 09:32:58 PM
I think he already figured out he was forked

That was a different guy, and this guy says he's been using 13.1.
2114  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: July 16, 2013, 09:27:21 PM
Anyone else thinking of legal actions? MtGox has now stopped their support as well, it seems.

Certainly, yes! We customers have deposited a lot of money there, and that money cannot just evaporate. They can be frozen, ot stealen. MtGox should provide more info now!

How much more info do you need?

They explained they would shut down for a while.

They explained they are back with several new banks, but it will take a while to ramp up and to work through the backlog.

They explained new requests would not be processed until the backlog was handled.

I'm sorry that your money is tied up, but historically this is not out of the norm for MtGox.  There have been SEPA delays, Dwolla delays, account closures, and transaction limits imposed by banks that have caused similar delays in the past.  Please learn from this experience and research any companies you are thinking about sending large amounts of money to.  If you wait a month, I'm confident your funds will come through.  But dealing with such large amounts of fiat money as a startup is a very difficult task and sometimes things don't flow as smoothly as we'd like.
2115  Bitcoin / Mining software (miners) / Re: CGMINER ASIC FPGA GPU overc monit fanspd RPC linux/win/osx/mip/r-pi 3.3.1 on: July 16, 2013, 09:16:55 PM
Hello, i've a little problem, i'll try to explain.
I'm using rasp pi, and installed cgminer 3.3.1
I have 1 block erupter in a hub usb powered and a lancelot from blackarrow.

I've been using my block erupter a lot of days without problems.

Since I installed my lancelot, I tried with sudo cgminer and it starts working, but it seems the block erupter gets the first work, after that it gets in standby meanwhile the lancelot works fully. A 60 seconds the cgminer says the block erupter gets sick.

What can I do? Do you need something abot logs?

Please help!
Thanks in advantage

If your hub is not powered, you might be straining it.  You should only need 1A or so though since the Lancelot has its own power chord.
2116  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [1100GH/s] p2pool: Decentralized, DoS-resistant, Hop-Proof pool on: July 16, 2013, 08:56:24 PM
Can someone explain what is going on? Please! Pretty please!  Undecided

Can you find your payout address here:
http://blockexplorer.com/block/000000000000000a6913ee4ada3b92bed9f1398ad8f22f4f944a5d5593197d68

if it is listed in the above link, the payout exists, you just have to find where it went in your wallet. Also double check your payout addresses in p2pool, make sure that there isn't a typo.

you won't show up in p2pool-nodes.info unless you have a well connected public node. If you do have a public node, would you mind sharing the IP address so we can check out the stats and configuration?

No, it does not exist in this payout round, all the settings are untouched. I got payment of todays block, after that one....

Were you mining long enough to get a share on the previous block?  What is your average share time, and can you review the historical charts to make sure you found a share?  Alternatively, if the node is on a public ip/port share them and we can take a look.
2117  Economy / Economics / Re: Lower Transaction Fees = Liquidity on: July 16, 2013, 08:49:50 PM
Well no the lowest fee is 0 BTC (for high priority transactions).  Only low priority transaction have a mandatory fee as a denial of service prevention mechanism.  All tx fee (both mandatory or optional) go to miners.

Excuse my sounding like a newb, but this escaped me. What are low/high priority tx?

It is calculated by a combination of transaction size, transaction value, and input age.  Smaller transactions with old coins will be high priority.  Larger transactions with new coins will be low priority and will require a fee.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Transaction_fees#Technical_info
Quote
priority = sum(input_value_in_base_units * input_age)/size_in_bytes

Likely a typo in there (smaller and larger mixed up).

I meant smaller/larger size_in_bytes, but I'll clarify it.

@molecular.  A general rule of thumb (because nobody except the client is going to use the formula) is "one bitcoin day".  If your inputs are "one bitcoin day" or greater then your tx is high priority and no mandatory fee is required.  You  may still wish to include an optional fee to faster processing but the tx will be relayed by all nodes as having sufficient priority for no fee.

The actual threshold is one bitcoin day per 250 Bytes.  So your rule of thumb works as long as the total transaction doesn't have too many inputs/outputs.
2118  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 16, 2013, 08:41:48 PM
what miners do with those newly minted coints has inevitably an impact on price.

What they are doing with those coins should be fairly easy to analyse. I believe there is a site out there that shows how long coins are stagnant for.

Shhh.... we don't like facts and data here.
2119  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 16, 2013, 08:36:02 PM
He must be one of the happy one.

Cheesy
2120  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: July 16, 2013, 08:35:13 PM
if i can't buy them, a lot of people can't. what's that mean then?
demand is high, we should raise the price.

somebody gets it.

There might be room for some price increase.  However, I feel that forcing people to go through resellers will help to build out the distribution network, which will be good for the longer term health of the company.  Dealing directly with small, retail customers is an unnecessary headache for friedcat.

we don't have to raise the price, we just have to maximize profit.

Supply shortages means that we are failing to do that. So either we raise the price, or we increase supply.

It has nothing to do with the resellers, they cant get them either (see btcguild 2-3 week backorder).

I must have been lucky then.  My order came in 2 business days, but that was a week or so back.
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