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741  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: December 31, 2013, 06:11:23 PM
I was going to take the time to write a proper response, but then realized how ridiculous it is to be a long term bear in bitcoin. Seriously, wtf?

Who's the long term-bear? Me? Am not !

Just not too confident about our current movement up and the behavior behind it. Still think another leg down is in order before we go for new highs..



I've always been a turbobull, but even I tend to agree here.  We have a clear 5 wave A down from the high, and we are somewhere in wave B.  C down still to come before this corrective sequence is completed.  Bitcoin's a honey badger though, so often the C waves are terribly weak.  If that's the case, buy buy buy when C comes in a few days/weeks.
742  Economy / Speculation / Re: wow, bitcoin's astro birth chart is full on! on: December 31, 2013, 05:48:20 PM
Arch Crawford has won the market timing award more times than most people, by using financial astrology.
Never heard of him.
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Equally Roger Nelson discovered for RCA that planetary aspects affect radio propagation
And the link to astrology is?  Ham radio operators have been using moon bounce since the 1940ies.
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There's available hard evidence out there as to astrology's efficacy, if your mind is not closed.
Please find some.  Someone winning a timing award is not hard evidence.  He will have to do a blind test with people using other methods, to make sure his predictions isn't influenced by other factors.  Like the charts.

You've been given names and descriptions of studies.... if you are a scientist, finding the research mentioned should be something you could do in your sleep.  Unless you're one of the "scientists" that is too wrapped up in their own mind to consider the work of others, in which case you might not be familiar with the tools and techniques of literature review.

You're going back to "only one explanation" again.  Sometimes, things are a bit more complicated.  You can't always separate everything out neatly.  But the fact that Crawford has beat out thousands of people who were using all the same methods EXCEPT astrology indicates there may be something to it.  Of course, it is just one small indication, but all science is built on a mass of small indications.
743  Economy / Speculation / Re: wow, bitcoin's astro birth chart is full on! on: December 31, 2013, 05:41:08 PM
I assure you with 100% scientific certainty; if anything interesting happens around those dates, either with Bitcoin or anything else in the world, it is a coincidence and in no way related to Pluto or any other planet.  You will always find something for any date.  If you don't, have another look.  This entire thread is entirely a waste of time, unless you are amused by reading bullshit.  I wish there was a way to unwatch topics I have posted in…
I wish there was a way to re-open your mind...
Gullible is not the same as open minded.  My mind is open to any verifiable scientific proofs and conjectures you may present.  I am not easily fooled, however.
You would have to search for the studies, but the two studies that stand out are:
1 - Correlation between Mars falling on the main angles in the charts of professional athletes. This was incredible to read.
2 - The STRONG correlation between people with "mental issues" and strong 12 houses (e.g. many planets in there). I have actually come across this with quite a few acquaintance's while giving them readings.
Too bad you don't know what strong correlation means.  

Strong correlations shows up at random all the time.  This is why we look at the data from different angles, and what do we find?  No correlation.  False positive.  There is, however, a small correlation between some mental illnesses and the time of year a person was born, especially far north and far south, but this can be easier explained by simpler means.  Like how much daylight there is at different times during the first few years.

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If I was to try to "prove" astrology, I wouldn't rely on scientific method per say.
Really.  What is a proof to you then?  I'm sure there are Nobel prices waiting for people who can find better ways to prove something.

If you believe science proves anything in the positive you are in the minority.  Science is generally considered to only proves things in the negative.  From the wikipedia article on science:
Quote
A scientific theory is empirical, and is always open to falsification if new evidence is presented. That is, no theory is ever considered strictly certain as science accepts the concept of fallibilism. The philosopher of science Karl Popper sharply distinguishes truth from certainty. He writes that scientific knowledge "consists in the search for truth", but it "is not the search for certainty ... All human knowledge is fallible and therefore uncertain."

As for your "simpler explanation" argument, two paragraphs down we have this:
Quote
Stanovich also asserts that science avoids searching for a "magic bullet"; it avoids the single-cause fallacy. This means a scientist would not ask merely "What is the cause of ...", but rather "What are the most significant causes of ...". This is especially the case in the more macroscopic fields of science (e.g. psychology, cosmology).

So it would seem your beliefs about science are different from the mainstream.

As a more mainstream scientist, I ask you: Can you prove false the hypothesis that the relative positions of the nearby heavenly bodies influence our thoughts and actions?  Evidence that it does has been presented, we await your evidence.  You don't have any, because this hypothesis falls outside the realm of science at this point in time.  We may one day be able to move people to different planets, which would enable a real study.  But our current technology does not allow us to conduct the experiments necessary to falsify astrology.  As such, the tools of science can be applied to study correlations, but no proof can be had.

Clinging to the idea that you if you can't prove it, then it is not real is very dogmatic.  I used to be the same when I was a teenager, but then I opened my mind and found a much bigger world.
744  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2013, 05:25:11 PM
More merchants make for more money flow.  So yes It is bullish, even if you disagree.
A merchant converting to fiat does not reduce that flow, it just doesn't add to it as much as when the merchant uses it in their supply chain.  Then it increases the flow further.  It is a difference between a +1 and a +2 not the difference between a 0 and a +1.

The relevant equation for valuation is PQ = MV.  Learn it, love it, live it.  To determine the value of the money supply (the circulating funds, not the total theoretical supply, thank you Gresham) M=PQ/V.  The higher the velocity of money, the lower the value of each monetary unit.  The intuitive explanation is that the more things you can buy with a unit, the less the unit is worth.  Re-using the same unit means that it buys more stuff.  Of course this is only true once money velocity achieves orbit, but after that it is certainly and always true.  It is similar to the ideal gas law in that respect (and in many other respects).


My intuition about M=PQ/V disagrees with your characterization.

The higher V, the smaller M (the total money supply).  Smaller M means less money in circulation, means each individual unit is more valuable.

Of course, you can't just change V and keep PQ constant, so it's pretty much just an academic exercise to consider.
745  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: December 31, 2013, 04:53:59 PM
4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

fair retort. i suppose "micro-term" is more appropriate here. i was responding to Bright in context, while assuming they were referring to the slide that just happened in response to the failure to break the resistance they mentioned.

all i mean to say is this small move down doesn't strengthen the bearish case if the doji marks a micro-term bottom. we're still being held up by the mid-term support as long as we don't move any lower. hence why this fairly small price movement is very significant.

--arepo

got it, thanks for the explanation. in these times of high volatility, i think its fair to call a 1 day to 1 week time-frame 'short term.'

yes, that is the general usage. i'm afraid i'm being a little optimistic here and referencing my bullishly notated charts (see my thread) Tongue if everything pans out, $775 will indeed hold for that time frame.

On average we will go up $10-$20 per day for the next 10 days or so (with ups and downs of course). Then quite a fair chance of some steeper climbing before consolidation in a few months.

The current line is going to develop into the over-riding trend for next year, meaning we arrive at between $4,000 and $5,000 by the end of 2014 (catastrophic news or bubble at that time notwithstanding).

Sounds facile but despite the noise (media as much as as TA) most things are pointing that way.

I've seen this prediction many times, but not sure why exactly people are choosing this number. In 2013, we went up 60x. Why would we only go up 7x next year? IMO if anything the curve gets steeper as the monkeys hope on board.

This is because your s-curve theory is pulled out of a bulls ass! It's only believed here because it supports the permabulls bias. There is no basis for such an assumption.
You believe this crap, and yet you discredit TA/EW?

Bitcoin is the linux of currencies. Even though it has some better qualities, the learning curve is just too steep for many people to ever fully adopt it, when it's easier to just use windows (Fiat). General public is lazy!

I hope you are right that Bitcoin is the Linux of currencies.  Linux may not be widely used on the desktop, but it has long dominated the server and embedded markets.  It is now taking over the mobile market.  Everyone who uses the internet uses Linux nearly every time they open a connection to a server.  Sure, they don't know and they don't care, but they don't have to know.  The professionals know it is the right tool for the job.

If Bitcoin fills a similar role, it could very well be the backbone behind thousands of "easy to use" value transfer and storage solutions.

Edit:: As to your "no recourse/insurance" discussion, for US citizens, there is Coinbase which has a very reasonable security model, proper licensing, and is fully insured.  They are able to do this and charge a 1% fee, so it can't be too expensive, and will only get cheaper as more competition comes to the Bitcoin insurance market.  There are a lot of insurance companies that would like a piece of the action once there's some more data to go on about how various security models hold up in reality.
746  Economy / Speculation / Re: REAL market traders... are they here...? on: December 31, 2013, 03:59:57 AM
The govt will never allow a currency that they have no control over.

"The govt"?

Which government is "the" government? Which jurisdiction?

I live in the USA so I'm referring the US federal govt.  The only one that has the authority to issue currency in the US.

Besides the point that the US accounts for only 4% of the global population and assuming "the govt" will be interpreted as "the US govt" is silly, there is also the issue that the US government has delegated its currency issuance authority the the Federal Reserve, which is a privately owned bank.
747  Economy / Speculation / Re: REAL market traders... are they here...? on: December 31, 2013, 01:06:51 AM
Wait, I trade in the bitcoin market, so I am a "market trader". But because I don't trade paper promises for other paper promises, I'm not "real".  So am I imaginary?

By real, he means a trader in markets that have a long, established history of more than the 4 years that btc has.  Stocks have been traded since the 1700's.  Technically commodities like gold and iron etc. have been traded since before christ lived.

Not that anyone cares, but I have traded stocks since 1995.

I buy and sell goods and services all the time for both cash and bitcoin.  Doesn't that mean I trade in "real" markets? (Not that I agree that Bitcoin markets are unreal, but I'm trying to play along).

If that doesn't count, why does commodity trading before Christ count?
748  Economy / Speculation / Re: REAL market traders... are they here...? on: December 31, 2013, 12:47:24 AM
Wait, I trade in the bitcoin market, so I am a "market trader". But because I don't trade paper promises for other paper promises, I'm not "real".  So am I imaginary?
749  Other / Politics & Society / Re: A lot rides on the way the USA is going to go. on: December 29, 2013, 08:10:48 PM
Right, now European Americans are much further along on their path to being a minority.  By 2043, they are projected be less than 50% of the population using the latest census data: http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/united-states/121212/whites-be-minority-america-2043-census

The fertility rate increases are all coming from African and Latino Americans.

Now, I'm not sure I can agree with the claim that this will cause the US to fall, but Ibian is right about immigration leading to a mass demographic shift that will dramatically alter the current power structure.

So what?  Americans are from everywhere.  
Skin, eye, and hair color don't make as much a difference in the US as most folks think.

So I was providing evidence to counter Honeypot's denial of the shift in demographics.  I know it doesn't make much difference, but I guess my comment might look a bit racist when you take it out of context.
750  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 29, 2013, 08:06:58 PM


Choo choo
751  Economy / Speculation / Re: Great Bitcoin Live Trading Platform - Testers Wanted! on: December 29, 2013, 02:27:00 PM
If you have any doubt about security explain it. It has taken like two years of coding, so please be careful with your sentences.
Any Java applet can be easily morphed into a desktop application. Desktop Applications can do anything on your PC, Applets cant (please read the link above), that's one of the reasons i've released an Applet.
If you know a way Applet can install/read/write on your PC please post it, i'll do my best to demonstrate it's safe.
Of course, if you want you can download the sourcecode and decompile it (java can be easily decompiled http://jd.benow.ca/ or google "java decompile") and look for malicious functions. Then post the result here Smiley
It's safe.

You are being niave (I don't believe you are misleading us, although it is sometimes tough to tell on the Internet).  It is safe only if you trust Java's security model and it's implementation.  There is are new Java exploits all the time.  I'd wager roughly half to 3/4 of PCs are still vulnerable to the latest one.  Despite my constant warnings, nearly every Windows user I know does not keep their software up to date.  Even if they did, this community would be the best place to maximize the value of a zero day exploit.  If you do not understand this, you have no business developing code that deals with money.  I understand you are just defending your hard work and this is probably legit.  Unfortunately there is no way for us to know for sure without a professional third party audit of the source code.

Regardless, you should be welcoming of a security audit.  If you do want to monetize this work, you will have a hard time if a bug is found and exploited by some hacker.  Even the best coder with good intentions makes mistakes.  Decompiling a JAR is not the same as the source code.
752  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 29, 2013, 06:44:56 AM
How much hashing power does Namecoin have? I'm guessing that even though it is "free" after setting it up, few miners do it. Figures on the other ones with merged mining (SHA256) would be interesting too.

Also, I don't know for sure what you are trying to tell me anymore. I guess you are saying that merged mining can allow coins of the same hashing algorithm to coexist?

Googling namecoin difficulty looks like it should give you the answer, but the first two links I tried were not mobile phone friendly.  Most pools handle merged mining, and it is dead simple to set up on p2pool.  Solo mining would be more difficult, unless you just made your own p2pool chain and used that.

And yes, you got my point exactly.  The hash power can secure all chains at once, within the constraints of the coinbase (you have to add a hash to the coinbase for each coin a particular miner is merged mining, so you need room for all of those).
753  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will BTC reach 1Million per coin? on: December 29, 2013, 06:30:11 AM
Probably about the same time this thread is created for the 1 millionth time. We're getting close...  Undecided
yessir!

lol, 2020 A.D. is as good of a guess as any I suppose

7 years aint bad to be a millionaire lol

That depends on how well the dollar fares over the next 7 years.
754  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 29, 2013, 06:25:17 AM
Even though I've always been curious about the smell of dogshit, I just could never bring myself to try it.

Perhaps it is my realization that if not one wins, then ultimately, all will lose. Why even bother? Or perhaps I'm just too old school.

For all those even THINKING about "investing" in scamcoins: Don't forget that ultimately, there will only be ONE coin of each hashing algorithm because of the natural concentration of hashing power and the threat of 51% attacks.

Perhaps doge will be the scrypt one. It will certainly be hilarious to watch blight fight dogshit.

Why not merged mining?  A single chain doesn't scale as well as multiple chains.
Isn't Namecoin merged nowadays? It's the only altcoin I've ever dabbled in.

Don't you see the irony in demanding that decentralized currencies be centralized into a single chain?

Namecoin, devcoin, and ixcoin are all actively merge mined with bitcoin.  There may be others.  I don't know of any scrypt merged mining efforts at the moment, but I haven't dealt much with scrypt mining.
755  Other / Politics & Society / Re: A lot rides on the way the USA is going to go. on: December 29, 2013, 06:17:12 AM
Laughable idea. If someone wants to make an issue of someone spilling a cup of water, they better be damn ready to pay the price for them not even showing up for work half the year.

As for fertility rates, similiar arguments were made against US in 1980s. The fertility rate actually went up afterwards to a point where it's climbing slowly up surely (sans the economic recession but everyone went down at that point) to a replacement rate. Not to mention in terms of absolute numbers, majority population's young and old and children actually increased over time til now.

It's 2013, not 1989 now.

Things change.

Right, now European Americans are much further along on their path to being a minority.  By 2043, they are projected be less than 50% of the population using the latest census data: http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/united-states/121212/whites-be-minority-america-2043-census

The fertility rate increases are all coming from African and Latino Americans.

Now, I'm not sure I can agree with the claim that this will cause the US to fall, but Ibian is right about immigration leading to a mass demographic shift that will dramatically alter the current power structure.
756  Other / Politics & Society / Re: A lot rides on the way the USA is going to go. on: December 29, 2013, 06:10:56 AM
None of that changes that every US war in recent years have been wars of aggression. And there is the curious fact that you lost more soldiers to suicide after returning from Iraq, than died in combat. At some point enough data points begin to form a pattern. Your wars are without justification, your society is fucked up, the economy is going to tank in a handful of years. But go ahead and tell yourself everything is fine. Fortunately I live on another continent.

Right, right. Please compare that to vietnam and tell him how US will fall.

All nations go through up and downs. You just keep bitching and moaning without being able to respond to everything that describes how wrong your 'reasons' are.

Your economy will tank before US, unless you are deluding yourself safe Smiley


But you just demonstrated perfectly how you don't even bother to read or understand something that completely disproves your view.



Also, this circle jerk was not initiated by Americans. Much squealing and moaning comes from outside of US and funny little bitches who moan while still living in US thinking they are actually safe from consequences of getting too mouthy.

That's a fact. US doesn't give a shit. You deal with us fair, we call it a day. It's that simple.

 

A circle jerk has no beginning and no end.  Grudges between people have always existed and always will.  But acting those grudges out will always amplify the number of grudge holders.  If you think 9/11 came out of nowhere you need to review some history.

Give me a reason why the entire world doesn't have a reason to fuck over the whole of middle east and iran +afghanistan and any muslim fucker within reach, consider they were the first mass enslavers of africans, extortionate 'merchants' that makes greedy jews look tame and extorted fees from all merchants around the world, caused a large part of indigenous persian population to flee to distant edge of the central eurasian world where they were forced to live as nomads, and their religion essentially one of complete conquest and punkish attitude that invaded the byzantine empire and countless other places.

They have no right to hold a 'grudge' against anyone. You need to review your history and know exactly who deserves what.

That's just it.  Nobody deserves to be punished for the sins of their ancestors.  If so, perhaps we ought to arm the African Americans to the hilt and tell them European Americans are fair game.
757  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 29, 2013, 05:11:12 AM
For all those even THINKING about "investing" in scamcoins: Don't forget that ultimately, there will only be ONE coin of each hashing algorithm because of the natural concentration of hashing power and the threat of 51% attacks.

Perhaps doge will be the scrypt one. It will certainly be hilarious to watch blight fight dogshit.

Why not merged mining?  A single chain doesn't scale as well as multiple chains.
758  Other / Politics & Society / A lot rides on the way the USA is going to go. on: December 29, 2013, 05:08:19 AM
None of that changes that every US war in recent years have been wars of aggression. And there is the curious fact that you lost more soldiers to suicide after returning from Iraq, than died in combat. At some point enough data points begin to form a pattern. Your wars are without justification, your society is fucked up, the economy is going to tank in a handful of years. But go ahead and tell yourself everything is fine. Fortunately I live on another continent.

Right, right. Please compare that to vietnam and tell him how US will fall.

All nations go through up and downs. You just keep bitching and moaning without being able to respond to everything that describes how wrong your 'reasons' are.

Your economy will tank before US, unless you are deluding yourself safe Smiley


But you just demonstrated perfectly how you don't even bother to read or understand something that completely disproves your view.



Also, this circle jerk was not initiated by Americans. Much squealing and moaning comes from outside of US and funny little bitches who moan while still living in US thinking they are actually safe from consequences of getting too mouthy.

That's a fact. US doesn't give a shit. You deal with us fair, we call it a day. It's that simple.

 

A circle jerk has no beginning and no end.  Grudges between people have always existed and always will.  But acting those grudges out will always amplify the number of grudge holders.  If you think 9/11 came out of nowhere you need to review some history.
759  Other / Politics & Society / A lot rides on the way the USA is going to go. on: December 29, 2013, 04:34:36 AM
All who pick up the sword die by it.  The USA will not be an exception.

Some of our actions may have had decent rationale, but try explaining that to the kid who's dad was a civilian casualty of our wars.  War only breeds enemies.

You have any idea how much of that applies hundred times more to our enemies than US?

What US does is largely a defensive measure to ensure the demise of those who actively seek to rise through the sword.

Where in your retarded fantasy land does it say only US commits crimes?



Do you have any idea how pathetic you sound now?

I love the personal attacks people on this forum throw around.  Roll Eyes

Can't you see the circle jerk for what it is, or are you just going to continue to perpetuate it?

Yes, our enemies were mad at us for the past and lashed out.  Then we responded and some new people were hurt.  Eventually those people will lash out too.

Oh well, we'll all be in a police state soon to "protect" us.  The more enemies the military industrial complex creates, the more it can push it's hardware onto our streets in the name of safety.

This used to be a country that cared about liberty and knew how to achieve it.  It seems now we only care about the illusion of liberty.
760  Economy / Speculation / Re: Moving Averages on: December 29, 2013, 04:25:41 AM
You can make fiat trading EMA but you'll probably have less and less coins with time.
IIRC, Goombo provided backtesting on his daily EMA trading system and it outperformed "buy and hold" (by what margin I do not recall). This suggests that, if fiat gains are reinvested, that you will have more and more coins with time.

I'm on my phone now so please tell me I don't have to dig up the post where Goomboo explains why even though his strategy can't match buy and hold it is preferable for those who want to minimize the risk of fiat loss.

TLDR: YDRC (you don't remember correctly)
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