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741  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2014, 03:40:58 AM
One of these plots is actual hourly closing price (USD/BTC) from one exchange, the other is a series of fake prices generated by a simple "log-Brownian" model.

Can you tell which is which, without looking at other charts?
If you think you can, what difference do you see?

Honestly, they both look very plausible. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if they're both BTC/USD, but from different exchanges.

The red line (Y) is Bitstamp's hourly closing price from 2014-01-05 to 2014-01-13.

The blue line (X) is generated by starting with

  X(0) = 840
  Z(0) = log_10(X(0)),

then, for i = 1,2,...

  Z(i) = Z(i-1) + 0.058*RND(),
  X(i)  = 10^Z(i)

where RND() is a random number with normal distribution, mean 0 and standard deviation 1.

In simple words, the simulated price X(i) increases or decreases at each step by a random percentage, without regard for the past history.

I had to try twice, with different random generator's seeds; on my first attempt the simulated price dropped too low at one point, it would have been a dead giveaway.

Granted it is only one sample, I picked blue as the fake data right away.
742  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2014, 01:19:17 AM
Deep packet inspection by ISPs has been going on for at least a decade.  They never needed priority as an excuse.  But keep on cheering for more centralized control of our networks.  Soon all my traffic will be encrypted on Comcast's network.

Sure it happens, but it is relatively rare and expensive to do pervasively, even in places where the government claims the authority and is uncontested to do it at will, it is still relatively rare.
Putting this financial incentive in front of it will ease the burden making it more common.
When we brought our new shiny QoS high speed ATM and MPLS switches into China, knowing what to say, and what not to say, and to whom, remained important.
Comcast has been injecting shit into unencrypted web pages since at least 2008.  Not only are they reading the application protocol to do this, they are modifying the data.  And why do you think it is expensive?  They have the data and they have code to read the protocols.  They can trivially extract anything they want that isn't encrypted.
743  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2014, 01:14:54 AM
Excluding broadband internet from common carrier regulations keeps completion out of the industry.  With copper lines, which do fall under common carrier, you provider has to provide you with the contracted bandwidth and you are free to resell it if you wish.  Broadband providers do not have to follow these rules.  I just moved into an apartment and I am having a terrible time dealing with Comcast just to get simple fucking internet (it's been over a week since I moved in).  If I had any other options for broadband, I would love to give them my business.  But regional monopolies dominate and even when demand is strong competitors can't get a foot in the door by buying from the monopoly provider.  Networks are expensive to build and maintain, which is why centralization is such a strong force in these industries.  Common carrier regulations were put in place to help balance this tendency and promote competition.  If a stronger Comcast is so great, why am I typing this on my phone when I have a really nice desktop?

Because bitcoin.

The internet is fundamentally broken in part precisely because it doesn't include any economic protocol until now.
There are a great many tragedies of the commons that occur from this: spam, pervasive advertising, all you can download/upload pricing, that you even have to pay for it at all if you are getting just basic internet is a symptom.
Letting the providers use the available technology to solve some of these problems is not such a bad thing.

There will always be folks that just enjoy using law to stop technology, but that doesn't make it better.

For your particulars, I don't know where you are, but I've never lived in a location that had so few choices for network.  My priorities are likely different as I wouldn't have considered living in a place without more choices.  If it doesn't have cable + DSL + wireless + nearby fiber + satellite availability, for myself, it could at best be a vacation rental.  Certainly not a place I could live / work.  
Your vote with your rental payment has more sway than the ballot box.

"Just leave" is a poor solution, especially when I am in one of the most population dense areas in my state.  I probably am moving elsewhere when I finish my degree, but that won't help the millions of people that have no option to but to live with the situation (most people in my state are too poor to even think about moving).  Ultimately lack of population density is the main problem, but at least with common carrier lines there was the possibility of smaller fish focusing on service to clean up the scraps left by the whales.  Without such options, I am currently a scrap that can only access the internet though my phone or by visiting a friend.
744  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin - Broken trend line on: January 14, 2014, 08:52:47 PM
Trend line at Huobi is not broken btw.

In a couple of weeks, Huobi won't matter anymore.

Huobi represents more than 70% of the actual volume. It does matter a lot.

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=24h

And how many fee free exchanges is it competing with?
745  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2014, 08:49:11 PM

This is big govt vs big telco.
Telco wins.
Probably a good thing for people and companies that use their networks.

MPLS QoS means that things that need real-time responsiveness can get it, so your skype call doesn't get choppy when your email attachment is coming across.
Not the end of the world, and likely a good thing for progress.

It's a good thing, so long as we can control these parameters ourselves.  If I want to prioritize things differently then I should be able to.  In fact, I could already.  This is the telecos wanting to take over prioritization in the name of optimizing their networks.  Of course it is technically trivial to just ignore user priorities, but until now it was thought to be against antitrust regulations because it enables, for example Comcast, to prioritize NBC's content (which they own), and deprioritize Fox's content.  Other networks might deprioritize NBC to harm Comcast.  This is a surrender of freedom.

By ourselves, you mean free to buy network connections as you like, or be prevented by government from these being made available.
I buy "business accounts" from my telco and do my own prioritization.  Large companies pay for QoS prioritization and love it for the last 20 years, finally consumers can get a taste of it.
 
For most people they won't care, won't notice.
The things you are afraid of (NBC vs Cox) are already illegal under other laws in most jurisdictions (oops, sorry Italy) and are not an issue here (in the USA where this particular legal battle is fought).

If you really want to worry about something in regards to this, your radar is seeing only the media chaff, while the missile sails right through.
The operation of packet inspection for prioritization contains metadata that could ultimately be seized or subpoena and provide a deeper intrusion to privacy by TPTB.
This can show what protocols each of us are running on our networks, and that may be far more interesting than the prosaic notion of whether the ads and services you are getting are for the company from whom you are buying a network.

Think deeper.

Deep packet inspection by ISPs has been going on for at least a decade.  They never needed priority as an excuse.  But keep on cheering for more centralized control of our networks.

If you remember your history, all networks were controlled by government.  All the PTTs...
The increase of shifting of control from government to private enterprise is less "centralization" not more.

Excluding broadband internet from common carrier regulations keeps completion out of the industry.  With copper lines, which do fall under common carrier, you provider has to provide you with the contracted bandwidth and you are free to resell it if you wish.  Broadband providers do not have to follow these rules.  I just moved into an apartment and I am having a terrible time dealing with Comcast just to get simple fucking internet (it's been over a week since I moved in).  If I had any other options for broadband, I would love to give them my business.  But regional monopolies dominate and even when demand is strong competitors can't get a foot in the door by buying from the monopoly provider.  Networks are expensive to build and maintain, which is why centralization is such a strong force in these industries.  Common carrier regulations were put in place to help balance this tendency and promote competition.  If a stronger Comcast is so great, why am I typing this on my phone when I have a really nice desktop?
746  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2014, 08:21:02 PM

This is big govt vs big telco.
Telco wins.
Probably a good thing for people and companies that use their networks.

MPLS QoS means that things that need real-time responsiveness can get it, so your skype call doesn't get choppy when your email attachment is coming across.
Not the end of the world, and likely a good thing for progress.

It's a good thing, so long as we can control these parameters ourselves.  If I want to prioritize things differently then I should be able to.  In fact, I could already.  This is the telecos wanting to take over prioritization in the name of optimizing their networks.  Of course it is technically trivial to just ignore user priorities, but until now it was thought to be against antitrust regulations because it enables, for example Comcast, to prioritize NBC's content (which they own), and deprioritize Fox's content.  Other networks might deprioritize NBC to harm Comcast.  This is a surrender of freedom.

By ourselves, you mean free to buy network connections as you like, or be prevented by government from these being made available.
I buy "business accounts" from my telco and do my own prioritization.  Large companies pay for QoS prioritization and love it for the last 20 years, finally consumers can get a taste of it.
 
For most people they won't care, won't notice.
The things you are afraid of (NBC vs Cox) are already illegal under other laws in most jurisdictions (oops, sorry Italy) and are not an issue here (in the USA where this particular legal battle is fought).

If you really want to worry about something in regards to this, your radar is seeing only the media chaff, while the missile sails right through.
The operation of packet inspection for prioritization contains metadata that could ultimately be seized or subpoena and provide a deeper intrusion to privacy by TPTB.
This can show what protocols each of us are running on our networks, and that may be far more interesting than the prosaic notion of whether the ads and services you are getting are for the company from whom you are buying a network.

Think deeper.

Deep packet inspection by ISPs has been going on for at least a decade.  They never needed priority as an excuse.  But keep on cheering for more centralized control of our networks.  Soon all my traffic will be encrypted on Comcast's network.
747  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2014, 05:51:20 PM

This is big govt vs big telco.
Telco wins.
Probably a good thing for people and companies that use their networks.

MPLS QoS means that things that need real-time responsiveness can get it, so your skype call doesn't get choppy when your email attachment is coming across.
Not the end of the world, and likely a good thing for progress.

It's a good thing, so long as we can control these parameters ourselves.  If I want to prioritize things differently then I should be able to.  In fact, I could already.  This is the telecos wanting to take over prioritization in the name of optimizing their networks.  Of course it is technically trivial to just ignore user priorities, but until now it was thought to be against antitrust regulations because it enables, for example Comcast, to prioritize NBC's content (which they own), and deprioritize Fox's content.  Other networks might deprioritize NBC to harm Comcast.  This is a surrender of freedom.
748  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2014, 05:42:40 PM
i panic sold once and i felt so dumb that i've adopted the strict HODL policy and it's been working out for me so far

you guys should try it out too

I've moved to a pure SODL strategy, since we're clearly heading to zero.

Why are you still here when you think we are going to zero?

Just as the Chinese government has recently warned citizens of the dangers of bitcoin, I am warning citizens of bitcointalk of the dangers of bitcoins, to help as many people as possible.  Only Satoshi and maybe 2 or 3 other people will make any money from bitcoin.  Everyone else will lose money, and probably destroy their life, as the Chinese government has explained.

Alot of ppl already made profits and even if it goes down to 0, they still do.
For the rest ur just posting crap news and stuff which are for 90% not even true. Really makes me wonder why ur here..
My best guess one of the few bears who are still waiting for the final drop from the 1200 crash. See you at $10k

I assume you are human, so we can safely assume that your best guess is terrible since you have practically no information to make a good guess.

Proudhon is trolling because he, like the rest of us have become annoyed at the constant panic mode of all the new traders.  It has become a bit of a joke for us because mocking it and laughing is better than getting annoyed.  It also shuts down the fudmeisters and before they know it, they are looking at the back of the train.  Lessons will be learned and the new traders now will join in the games next time around.  The forums will again be flooded with new traders if we rocket and once there are too many who need to learn the lessons of chasing the newsfeeds(which, hint you are the product, not the customer unless you are paying for it), we will top and teach them once more.
749  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many kilos of sugar with 1 BTC in 2045? on: January 14, 2014, 06:06:52 AM
21,000,000 kg of sugar per btc
750  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 13, 2014, 11:00:30 PM
the bearishness can you feel it?  Cheesy

I can feel it, yes.

I almost sold in panic at the recent bottom. Might be a sign the bottom is in, but the panic was still manageable, so maybe we have some ways to go yet.

??!??!??!??

lol

maybe I should clarify: When I say "I sell", I really mean: sell my trading stash (or part thereof), which is about 5% of my coins.

So I never sell more than 5%.

EDIT: although I've been trying to change that as per rpietilas divestment strategy... but it's hard.


Just "divest" into your trading fund.  You'll end up with fiat soon enough.
751  Economy / Speculation / Re: Confirmed Bad News Sources Thread - No FUD, Just Facts!!!1 on: January 13, 2014, 07:49:43 PM
Proudhon, man, c'mon, really? Are we really doing this?

I mean, it's nice to see that you're optimistic about BTC again, but this kind of caricature is going to get a bunch of the newer folks thinking you're being sincere.

Maybe I'm just used to proudhon's style, but to me his posts seem to be so soaked in sarcasm that it is unmistakable.
752  Economy / Speculation / Re: Predicting Price Movement on: January 13, 2014, 07:44:31 PM
I have not been on twitter for a few years, so I'm sorry to say I'm not sure I understand you.  Are there particullarly useful people or organizations that I can "follow" who update regularly on what is happening with the price of BTC?  I'm willing to give Twitter a try if it will help me to keep current on BTC price knowledge.

If you don't want to mess with twitter, reddit.com/r/bitcoin is just as good for bitcoin news.

That said, if you trade based on news you will be part of the crowd that successful traders make their money from.  You might get lucky and be the first to see the news, and you could get lucky again and guess the resulting price action correctly, and then get lucky again and close your trade at the right time.  But most of the time, you will be lost in the scramble.

Trading can be done profitably, but it isn't as easy as parsing news events and picking a direction.
753  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 13, 2014, 07:29:45 PM
is everyone is high on drugs!?

Yep, caffeine and sucrose here.

I try to avoid those.
754  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 13, 2014, 07:26:19 PM
is everyone is high on drugs!?

Not at the moment.
755  Economy / Economics / Re: Would World War instantly destroy Bitcoin? on: January 13, 2014, 07:25:22 AM
So long as transactions are broadcast on all forks, reconciliation can remain a reasonable outcome when the connectivity is reestablished.  It doesn't have to be done in real time, or even really at all if the disconnect is brief.  But if there is a long term segmentation, transactions can be synced over sneakernet or avian carrier and then on reconnect the longest chain can easily be accepted.  If there are double spends (the same coins spent in two different ways on two different forks), then there will be problems.  And since we can't see the other chain, we can't detect double spends until the periodic transaction/block sync.  But hey, it's war time and this is the only hope we have for international transactions.  Unless you are super careful, your ass can be tracked down and the situation can be handled.
756  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 13, 2014, 04:44:27 AM
like the several hundred articles we get from the western press every single week.
The point is that the Chinese press is insisting on the Ponzi aspect.  If that is the government position, Bitcoin trading may become illegal in China.

(Bitcoin may have good intentions, but trading it is a zero-sum game, whether it blooms or collapses.  One man's proft is necessarily another man's loss.)

Except bitcoin is not only useful for currency exchange, it can also be used to trade for goods and services.  For this use, it is faster and cheaper to transact in than credit/debit cards.
757  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 13, 2014, 04:15:15 AM
Cross post, because: brilliant.

Immediately converting bitcoin through a payment processor is not "accepting bitcoin." It is accepting fiat, both functionally and literally.

Newegg and Overstock are irrelevant.

You idiots.

Correct they accept fiat and allow bitcoin users to ay with their bitcoin. I think it is pretty awesome that they would completely adjust their accepted payment methods to include the bitcoin community.

You are a stupid person and have missed the point.

Awe cute. Instead of positing an intelligent response you just resort to name calling. I never knew you were still in middle school and had limited intelligence. This explains a lot.

What would be the point of an intelligent response when the first statement I made was so easy to understand?

You idiot.

As I stated in the other thread, your point is incorrect.  People converting USD -> BTC, transferring to retailer, then retailer converting BTC -> USD will result in a price increase when spread across an ever-increasing user-base.  Use of a currency forces its price to increase.  Basic economics.

Unless there are early adopters sitting on millions in profits waiting for places to spend them.
758  Economy / Speculation / Re: Its going down in a few hours on: January 12, 2014, 09:39:51 PM

few days back i didnt take a $60 loss on a trade it cost me $1k in the end, felt like shit.  hey do what you like though, im still holding 60% btc and dont think i will sell no matter news maybe thats crazy

That's prudent, not crazy.  And don't joke about crazy.  Bitcoin has sent a few people to visit the men in white coats.
759  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 12, 2014, 06:22:27 PM

the plunge is coming, everyone must make the pledge!



its now or never lemmings.

They need some encouragement to actually make the leap:
Quote
A Canadian Broadcasting Corporation documentary, Cruel Camera, found the lemmings used for White Wilderness were flown from Hudson Bay to Calgary, Alberta, Canada, where they did not jump off the cliff, but were in fact launched off the cliff using a turntable.
760  Economy / Speculation / Re: Special Sunday analysis for everyone on: January 12, 2014, 05:55:52 PM
Can you pm me the algebra?  I take full responsibility for my own safety.
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