This how I am speculating...

[2022-01-16 21:27:34.222]  net      new job from 127.0.0.1:18081 diff 406G algo rx/0 height 2538945 (20 tx)
[2022-01-16 21:24:01.441]  miner    speed 10s/60s/15m 13714.4 13718.6 13947.2 H/s max 14929.1 H/s

At lease SOME people will consider what "fungibility" is because of this. 

The whole way NFTs work is we are creating something that is identifyably unique.  This bored ape is provably different than THAT retarded frog.  And only one person can own either one.

Non-fungibility in a nutshell is the idea that each unit is unique and discernibly different than the other.  Then, of course, humans begin to assign values to each of these unique units.  And some will be worth more than others because of the magic of markets.

Non-Fungible money does not work well.  And as a generic store of value there are great arguments to be made for both something like an NFT (think rare art), or like an ounce of silver, with simply the mark of the company that cast the bar or round.  In the latter case the fact it is from "Sunshine Mining" does not make the silver more valuable really, but generally trustworthy in that we know that mint has a history of being fair.  An ounce of silver is MOSTLY fungible.  We might assign a premium to one mint or another, and of course we can go all the over to non fungibility with RARE coins.

NFTs are more like collectible art.  They are basically the mathematically abstracted version of that.  A computer science and math based simulation of a collectable thing... art, a watch, a car... whatever.  Do not get lost for now in arguing whether or not this really has any meaning or value.

Bitcoin is sort of like Gold or Silver, I think.  Most of the value of a satoshi is based on the same minimum structure that all others share.  But there are circumstances where Bitcoins fungibility can be challenged, similar to a minted silver round.  If I could have 1 of the 50 bitcoin mined in Block 2, I would think I should be able to sell THAT BTC for WAY MORE than 43k.  In fact I could imagine someone paying MILLIONS to own that.  Likewise Bitcoin directly associated with a crime might be considered worth less.

Let's say we take that thought experiment about the Block 2 coin a ltitle farther.  Let's say I actually discovered Satoshi!  And he agreed with me to sell me exactly ONE of the 50 BTC sitting in block 2's coinbase.  And futher lets assume that I am the only one who knows who Satoshi is, and no one else did.  Well, after we did our deal, then Satoshi would sign a transaction with the private key corresponding with the coinbase address of block two and send me that 1 BTC I had bought from him.

What would happen?  Yes.  The entire Bitcoin market would almost immediately crash!  Why?  because it would be public knowledge that the owner of the private keys to block 2 just moved one of the coins.  And was can also assume THAT person owns at least hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin, and just showed the world he was in a selling mood.

All because Bitcoins, are to a certain extent, non funfgible.

Monero on the other hand?  Well  I might just own one of the first Monero ever mined.  But I do not know, and neither does anyone else without a large coordinated effort with various view keys.  Practically impossible. 

All because Monero has this property that is just about unique to only it.  (and yes it's clones etc... but that is another discussion as to why XMR wins that battle too).

NFTs have opened peoples eyes to fungibility.  Right now they are all distracted with pretending one retarded frog is worth more than another.

But eventually many of them will begin to understand the amazing value of a digital asset that CANNOT be distinguished from equal units of it's kind.

Monero arguably takes digital fungibility to the mathematical extreme.  Unlike Bitcoin it pretty much mathematically PERFECTS the aspect of fungibility.  And THIS property actually has GREAT VALUE. Eventually some folks will stop being interested in apes and start being interested in something that is fully fungible.

That is what I was saying...  the long version.

This is an extremely good article, and I would hope that more people begin to see this.

But there is another sucker born every minute.

I personally think Brian Armstrong and Coinbase have been a net negative for Bitcoin.  And most likely will continue to be.  Armstrong has worked as hard as he can to build a cantillon type structure in the crypto markets, basically actively working AGAINST one of the key innovations Bitcoin brings to the world.

It's the classic question.  Is he evil?  Or just dumb?

Anyone else ever think about the fact that after everyone gets over "NFTs"? they will be both well inoculated against scams AND understanding the definition of a word (fungible) that took us a long time to really understand.

Basically the universe has nudged EVERYONE towards Monero.

Notice at the front of what I said I put "humans".  I see my self as one of those as well.  You are inferring into my argument positions that are not there.  (which you often do!) I am entirely guilty of what I am talking about.  With Satoshi for one, and more recently to some extent with Saylor and even Dorsey who I go back and forth about.  Currently I see his as Saint @jack again , which will need to be broken again as well.  I never liked Ver from the very beginning.  I see something well meaning in him, but he has ALWAYS irritated me.

In the end what I am posting is a warning to myself as much as anything else.  I think it is very easy to fall into this trap.


Yes!  You see it then!    I do not know how much possibility I give this particular squiggly line.  I am far from any kind of T/A guru.  What I am trying to put forth, though, is the idea we might not be entering that "bear" again that so many people are thinking is similar to, say, January 2018.  My point is we might be in something more like June 2021 instead... consolidating for the run to the next ATH, which may be only 20-30% higher than the last one... Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

OK.  I am now going to show you my current lens of hopium.  This is a good sort of framework for what I think might be how the future starts to look for the corn.

Why, oh why are we still using a legacy address, sir!  Think of the fees!

Well humans do the same damn thing over and over looking for the perfect leader, person, representative, savior, president and so on.

Bitcoinners have done this with Satoshi himself, Roger Ver, and so many from the olden days ... and more recently @jack, Saylor, and Bukele.

And EVERY time they let us down .  Of course they do.  They are not Jesus.  And they are selfish, imperfect humans like us all.

But I think as long as we can stop trying to turn important bitcoinners into saviors we will be OK.  I like Bukele.  I would not mind if he were my president.  A lot better than the crap we have going now in my country.  Perfect?  Certainly not.

And people always pin the future of Bitcoin on these people, and bitcoin does not care at ALL when they fail.  But we might...

I think Bukele is a net positive for Bitcoin, and most likely will continue to be.  But even if he does not stay in the boat with us, and ever tries to tip it over bitcoin will not be harmed at all.  But probably Bukele will be destroyed.

Look at Ver.

I disagree with most of this.

Monero made a new USD all time high in 2021.

But the real issue here is the concept of "this cycle" and that we are now entering a bear.  Only time will tell, of course, but this narrative is building a lot of strength in the bitcoin circles and I think it might just be the way most people end up being wrong. Because based on this idea the best move would be to sell ASAP and buy back at ~$50 right?  Is that what you are doing?

I think we are facing a significant chance that Bitcoin (and the legacy POW coins as you put it) could surprise us with another upswing and create three peaks in this "cycle" before thje next halving.  In fact, I think we could see it continue to do this movement INTO the "next cycle".

I think it is possible many people will have to buy back in at a higher price because they are basing their expectations that Bitcoin will act as it has for the last 3 "cycles".  When in fact it is already doing something we have not seen before with this weird continuing higher high and higher low setup.  This is the weirdest dead cat bounce otherwise.  Possible, of course.

It certainly could go on down and lose more value and stay low until when we would expect the next bull run to start into the next halving...

But seriously.  If it were that predictable wouldn't everyone be playing exactly those realities, and wouldn't that change the landscape completely?  Markets do not like to do what people expect because they are driven by people changing their strategies based on exactly that information.  With countries and large cities opening beginning to store reserves in BTC, allowing international trade in BTC etc, I do not see us continuing the follow the same pattern.

What would the charts look like if we were on the leading edge of "hyperbitcoinization"?

Well they could look exactly like this.

And as you point out monero's core value has not changed at all but to have strengthened.

The following chart is one possibility in the hyper bullish realm...  Not saying it happens.  But something to consider.

Good stuff.

There was also a rumor post on reddit about Ray Dalio saying this or that about montango...  But I think it got pulled let me see:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/s34f2g/a_friend_of_a_friend_works_for_an_investment/

Anyway.. i doubt there was actual substance... it was most likely BS, but hopefully not the main reason for our rise...

Actually the reason for that Batslap (I am guessing) is the reason I have been reluctant to.  But then, there is a fork of that too, yes?

Alright then.  It is difficult not to take profits on this here, since I (humble-brag) basically bought the bottom.

But I think depending on what the corn does we might still have some legs here.

Transactions are not really up over the last year...  i suppose if you smooth out the graph you'd see an upward bias, but we are pretty close to Jan 21 levels.  Still Monero is being used.  Quite a bit.

EDIT (TO SAVE THE DRACONIAN MODBOT THE NEED TO COMBINE POSTS)

1/13 19:11 UTC


Woof... that's a healthy looking upswing.  Like so many of these Monero jumps, I can't see where it's coming from.  The volume on the major exchanges is pretty thin, but the bids are moving up distinctly.



I seriously do not think a couple measly 2k buys does this.  I can only assume a certain exchange (Bisq?) is seeing heavy traffic, and the bids move up passively on the KYC exchanges in concert, or as sellers buy lots to sell wherever the actual action is happening.

Anyone know?

Now, of course this kind of move is usually a flash in the pan, and then the prices settles back down to where it started.,  But this move so close to the heels of the last one is at least somewhat encouraging.

OK.  Looked at Binance.  We are seeing a LOT of 2-4k hourly candles... Pretty frisky market there...  Hmm...  

News?  Rumors?  Big ass drug deal going down? lol.

FWIW a firefox FORK like waterfox might be my answer.  I would love to trim the bloat anyway.

As to all these solo blocks appearing.  Umm.  We are sure of these miner's hashrate? Truly in the single Whatsminer sort of range?

I keep waiting for some giant chip fab entity (ie Samsung, Motorolla, Intel, AMD, Nvidea etc) developing a SHA256 ASIC on the down-low and starting to test them... I do not know enough about this tech/market to know if this is a possibility, but my gut thinks so.  But I do not think it is impossible that some chip maker could get a quick ROI testing (Butterfly Labs style) a brand new ASIC.  The financial incentive for this is crazy high.

The fucking political garbage being fronted by Firefox and Wikimedia will hold us back.

See how these two threads tie together?

Well perhaps I am more political than I pretend   But I will most likely be switching to DDG, I think, which I would assume is Chromium based.

Blackjack, like all casino (non parimutuel) games is a statistically negative expected value (-EV} game. (there are of course legendary exceptions to this for Blackjack in particular but that is another topic, or perhaps movie)

Mining can be a +EV endeavor.

Your example COULD be true for poker, sports betting, or horses...

I am not a very political person.  Some would say I am lacking principal.  But I will be uninstalling Firefox for sure.  Not sure what that accomplishes.  But I do not want to have ANYTHING to do with supporting the sorts of garbage they seem to be supporting.

Damnit Bob!

Not that anyone's vote really had anything to do with the outcome of this last election.

And this juggernaut was set in force decades ago.  And involves the whole world.

The phrase "Build Back Better" has been bandied about for quite some time (prior to covid).

How could they have known we would need to "build back" from something?

This is a net positive but a mixed blessing for us US folks.  The western politicians will be able to frame Bitcoin as an attack on the Dollar.

Which it is.  Not that Bitcoin gives a single shit about the dollar.

Just as my little diesel truck could not care less about horses.

Yeah...



Also... I have never really known how to read this, but the bids look strong and the asks look scared to me.   lol.