You guys realize that very soon there will be ANOTHER Celsius, or Blockfi happening...

And then big well known hedge funds.

And then Medium sized banks.

And then LOTS of medium sized banks...
 
And so on?

Tick tock.

We have known it for years, but some of you are too busy watching the side shows to see it happening now.

Have I ever told you my cockeyed theory that Nakamoto, SAtoshi is a rogue group inside the NSA?

I give it about a 4% chance of being true... high, really.

So you think they will keep it down below X by selling versions of it that do not exist?  And yeah... my optimism has coset me a lot of potential money over the years.

It has also made me rich as fuck.  Lol.  I am not sure if I am mad or not... I might end up mad, I guess.  Gotta know when to fold 'em as Kenny said.   I might end up mad, AND poor.  But I am thinking not.

Imagine being able to buy 100 Bitcoin for something like $300k.  How many will be selling? 

I will not be selling.

There is a narrative that they are.  There is a narrative that spooks are behind Samourai too.  Honestly, if you want privacy Bitcoin is not ready.  (I would trust Samourai first..)

So I have not expressed it a lot here but have spoken about it a bit on twangler.  Caitlyn whasserface who likes to talk a lot about "blockchain" from Wyoming...  She's always kinda given me the jibbities, but  one thing she brought to the fore for bitcoinners is "rehypothication".

I have often exchanged with her that I believed that one day we would see companies who try that (with a mathematically perfect bearer asset) get their asses handed to them.

Well..  Luna... Celsius, Blockfi?

Who is next?  We can only hope this is the "big one".  But still, allow me to smear my bullish interpretation all over it.

This will end up getting the attention of all the money people who have STARTED to get the idea that Bitcoin is different.  They will realize you cannot actually rehypothecate a digital bearer asset.  Because it is a  margin call waiting to happen.  Yes you can play all kinds of games with shitcoins... but ultimately Bitcoin is the backbone of it all.  And it does not suffer from those flaws.  There are no reserve banks to bail out these idiots.

It will take collateral damage like it is now...  But this is going to wake people up.  I think.

I am still waiting for the bull run for this cycle!

Someone had to do it!  I was proud to be the one.

Also... there is a trick all the angry hoards should learn:


The img width=100 is the money... 

Custodial most certainly is.  Where will have to have improvement is in non custodial options.  But I believe that WILL improve.

The part that bothers me, is I think it will continue to be a tiny minority that even cares about the difference.

OK, OK!

But what if I were to say, "This might end up being the LAST CHANCE of buying Bitcoin under 20k?"

Would that be ok?

LOL. 

So Bitcoin is in step with the Nasdaq index like a couple synchronized swimmers... 

Oh dear... who peed in your cornflakes?

I see lots of things wrong with your statements, and am not going to take the time to explain much of it as I doubt you would really be interested. 

As to failures routing payments...  I have not personally seen tons of that.  I do see them.  And more with personal nodes, or neutrino implementations.  Custodial lightning works basically perfectly.  And before you say "But that's not the right kind", I know... but what it does do is prove a well run node can not only manage payments well for a user, but for a whole country.  Therefore it is possible that node software, and light noncustodial wallets are going to improve over time, and be even more reliable.

As to fees... There is no real fee market yet.  People charge all different kinds of fees.  I will say that the VAST MAJORITY of my payments cost between 0-30 sats.  Only a handful ever go anywhere near 100, and only in special circumstances do I see them higher than that.  Particularly when opening a "turbo channel" or the like.

Anyway your point that lightning is far from perfect is true.  But I certainly do not see it as the failure you seem to... and I only see it getting better.

People STILL talking about Microstrategy getting liquidated.  You know, I think there are some folks out there that would LOVE to pick up that money.

But what circumstances could even exist for the price to go back to 3k?  I just do not see something like that to be sustainable at all even if we have cascading margin calls for all the Celsiuses out there...

I would so buy a whole coin at 3k though. If Saylor had to sell them.  I am sure there are at least 150k more like me. heh

This is SUPER interesting!  And surprises me.  Huh.

Russia is new to this game, but previous players would suddenly reverse these sorts of declarations...

You know... maybe it is just my perma-bull insanity, but I am wondering if there are not some very powerful folks realizing they have to make some bold moves to get a position in the size they would want...

Now that is way over the top.  First of all...  there is a big difference between saying Monero is better than Bitcoin, than saying Monero is better than pre mined, dev taxed, trusted setup, corporate NSA backdoored shitcoins.

And I personally think the Monero community is one of the most well rounded, mature, introspective "crypto" communities out there...

It uses the plugin framework and the backup plugin, but it is active by default.  And looking at the logs I would think it backs up frequently


My LND node was doing hundreds of routes a day a couple months back...  It was quite active.  But in recent times it has been much more quiet, and some days just a few transactions...  Lucky in retrospect.  The CL node never got anywhere near as active as the LND node.  Another reason I am going to use the static channel backups method on it.  Not that I had a choice... the rescue files I had were woefully outdated.  It's sad as the node has been up since 2019, and is a BOS ranked node... or WAS.  Now it will just be, I hope a nice pile of UTXOs I have the keys for.  


Understand.  I am split on them.  I like the idea that the node uses "night light" level electricity.  But it is still a bit Janky IMHO with an external drive hanging off the end of it...  I would prefer one of the stouter SBCs with a teeny custom case.  Or upgrade to some of the little thin-client+ type teeny form factor Dell machines.  Could also do an old laptop... but that feels even jankier than the RPi.  In a way.  Probably the best bang for the buck would be to grab a corporate cast off machine off ebay for <100$.  Some fairly nice equipment can be had for low figures...

I appreciate the good conversation, n0nce, whilst I work to see how much money I have set fire to in my foolishness.. heh.  I guess the sagging Bitcoin price has the dubious good effect of making that POTENTIAL value smaller each day!

That UI is the Raspiblitz UI.  Well part of it.  It is just monitoring the amount the chain-sync is behind.  To be honest I have no idea what the "lightning progress" is though.  It actually sort of worries me... 68% of what? lol.

As to the backup, yes I wrote a script that put them on an external usb drive (flash drive), but I made a mistake in my calculations about space and rotation, and the thing had not been saving backups for a while.  As well as the fact that I was not really doing them frequently enough. I set it up on a cronjob... My error handling was also kinda ziltch.  But again, thanks to Raspiblitz the node seems to (fairly frequently?) make backups regularly to the SD card as well. And the one on the SD card was within minutes of when it was shut down.  So I am hopeful I will not see many justice transactions  I have not yet decided whether I just want to ensure I can get to the addresses and let the nodes close over time... or risk it to just turn the thing back on.  I almost wish I could set some switch that would query all channel partners for a current balance, and just accept it if I am within X% or Xsats.

I have become fond of Raspiblitz and Rootzroll and Openoms.  Using it reminds me of starting to use Slackware linux after having built a disaster of a machine doing LFS.  There is still plenty of room to noodle and configure, but LOTS of the tricky bits, and helpful things are built into the system... interesting project.  I have decided I will donate a percentage of everything I recover at the end of this madness...  If I get it all, that donation might actually sting a little haha.

I want to add this.

I have only run LND and CL nodes.

I put a LOT more work, time and value into LND.  Through the last 7 months I have run the CL node, I am feeling a LITTLE like it is a more well rounded smartly designed product.

The plugin architecture is a major strength.

I put WAY MORE work into securing backups for the LND node... but when the rubber hit the road?  It is shaping up to look like the CL node will fair better.  And that is with truly reckless behaviour on my part.  In retrospect I was not careful at ALL about how I performed the setup and maintenance.  I think the reason for this was I intended for the thing to be an experiment with a few 100k sats on it just to say I was running it.  And I ended up putting nearly the same amount on ~13 channels with it as >40 on the LND node.

I am no genius when it comes to this stuff... as can be seen by my most recent issues... but perhaps hast gives me the credit to say CL is the more idiot proof as well...  In fact, if I keep running a node after this ordeal I might just stick with the Blockstream build...

All that said, I have recovered nothing yet. LOL.  I reserve the right to take it all back.  I might think just the opposite in the end.

Very well done!  I would say "be careful with those sorts of gambits".  But the reason is I am not good at doing exactly what you did.   So I would only really be saying it to me.

I don't get it, but I totally agree with you.

I know why... It is because ETH is by far the single biggest attack on Bitcoin from the beginning of all time.  And will continue to be... with the POS change being the next campaign. 

It's also why I tend to hate the recent anti-bitcoin narrative in the XMR camp.  We are basically using the same kinds of arguments that are used to support the shittiest of shitcoins (which really is ETH).