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November 18, 2018, 07:04:55 AM *
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1  Other / Politics & Society / Re: GAI (General Artificial Intelligence) will it include Emotional Intelligence? on: Today at 02:57:51 AM
I had also been wondering what is actually there in a human brain before programming starts.

It's debatable, but IMO:

Before any learning occurs, the human brain starts out like 95% complete. If a brain was born into a jar without any inputs, then it would not really function since it'd still be missing 5%; but still, the vast majority of all mental processes are built into your hardware, not learned. A clear example is language acquisition: only a tiny minority of the population has a good idea of what an adjective actually is, for example, yet almost every child is somehow "taught" how to use adjectives ~perfectly.  Grammar is built into your hardware, and you just need to fill in the details during your first few years of life. The same is true of things like compassion and generosity, though I think that "default" human compassion only applies to those who you perceive as belonging your in-group, and universal compassion is more learned. (Hunter-gatherers tended to believe that their tribe's members were the only true humans, and all others were mere animals.)

Children aren't really taught how to think or behave: they already know intuitively how to do that in almost all cases, and they just need relatively few nudges to slightly shape the behavior they were born with. In the best case, an AI would be a true blank slate, which nobody has ever had to teach before, or more likely it'd have a built-in nature as an accidental side effect of its programming which would make its thinking incompatible with human values from the start.
2  Other / Politics & Society / Re: GAI (General Artificial Intelligence) will it include Emotional Intelligence? on: Today at 01:24:32 AM
The first GAI might come from completely mapping a human brain and simulating it on a computer. In that case, it would behave like a human.

But if GAI comes about through any other method, then it's not likely to have any emotions, honor, compassion, etc. For that matter, it probably also wouldn't have thoughts such as fear, ambition, or greed, at least not in the human sense. These things evolved in human brains due to a need to effectively cooperate and/or compete with other members of our species. Intelligence does not imply any of those things. If a GAI was somehow accidentally created, you definitely couldn't trust it, and you'd have no way of predicting what it actually wanted, since its entire way of looking at the world would be totally alien.

Since it'd obviously be bad to create a super-intelligent psychopath, there are several organizations dedicated to figuring out how to give something of a conscience to future GAI, such as the Machine Intelligence Research Institute.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 17, 2018, 07:18:24 PM
Greg posted a detailed explanation of CSW's most recent fraud: https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/81115/if-someone-wanted-to-pretend-to-be-satoshi-by-posting-a-fake-signature-to-defrau/81116#81116

I think that sometimes theymos, realist as he may seem to be, can sometimes end up arguing a bit too much on the bearish side of bitcoin matters.  It has been shown in the past.  hahahahahaha   in other words, take theymos's predictions with a grain of salt.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

True, I've historically erred much more on the side of bearishness. But since I mostly hodl, only speculating with smallish amounts if at all, that means that I'm rarely disappointed, and sometimes happily surprised. Smiley
4  Other / Meta / Re: Do we need to be more sensible about certain issues here before it goes far? on: November 17, 2018, 06:49:10 PM
In general, I'm all for being lenient. There are users who have been temp banned many times but still haven't been permabanned because their contributions outweigh their misbehavior. I actively disbelieve in the idea of a "rule of law" where hard rules exist and are strictly applied across the board as if we're all robots. Every case should be considered individually in the context of the forum's mission.

Plagiarism is what gets people permabanned, not just copying. Plagiarism is copying with the intent of passing the work off as your own. In essentially all cases, plagiarism deserves a permaban because it usually proves definitively that the person is here for the wrong reasons: to fill up space in order to get paid, not to actually discuss or contribute. If someone was able to convince us that they were plagiarizing just to eg. impress people rather than to fill up space, then a lesser ban of a few months might instead be warranted. But this has never happened AFAICR. (Arguments based on plausible deniability aren't going to work; we don't need to prove that you had the motive we see in your actions.)

If you treat posting as a job, a chore, then you must live in fear, since the forum is not made for you. In this case, you need to blend in as someone who actually cares, but plagiarism will immediately out you, and producing a mountain of useless posts will also eventually be noticed, if more slowly. If you do actually care, then this will be obvious in your posts (and probably your merit score), and you will have nothing to fear from moderators; even allegations of plagiarism will be doubted when seen in the context of your other posts.

Quote
in extreme cases could be copyright theft?

Plagiarism is almost always a copyright violation which could conceivably get the poster in a lot of trouble, but it's not a bigger legal issue for the forum than anything else. (Using the forum to violate copyright is never allowed, though.)

Quote
when copying and pasting from the net can it lower google rankings? and internal copy and past could do the same thing?

That's not a particular concern of mine.

Quote
even memes may soon constitute copyright theft

Only in the EUSSR.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 16, 2018, 02:38:52 PM
So the general consensus is we’re going to continue to drop for years?

Well fuck me, we might as well sell everything now then?

If you don't think that an ETF or similar big boosting event is likely in the next ~year, then that might end up paying off, but personally I wouldn't sell large amounts now. First of all, it'll probably at least touch $6k in the near future. Second, you don't know when an ETF will be approved or the next 2008-style financial crisis will happen, both of which could truly put BTC through the roof. (Insider trading will probably put BTC to $10k+ some time before an ETF is actually approved.) Third, while cryptocurrency will probably not take over the world anytime soon, it's a very real and growing niche which isn't ever going away, and I see no serious competitors to BTC for king of the cryptocurrency space.

It all depends on your risk tolerance and time horizon, though. If there's any BTC price that would ruin you, then it might be a good idea to sell some.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 16, 2018, 12:24:33 PM
If there had been significant upward pressure, then we wouldn't have been stuck at ~$6.5k for so long. I predict that ~$5.5k will be "the new $6.5k" for a while, maintaining relative stability with periodic bouncing.

I suspect that we're on a long-term slow downward trend until either the next halving or until something major happens (eg. ETFs, maybe certain global events, etc.).

https://twitter.com/coinspeak_io/status/1063272025660121090
ABC used a centralized checkpoint to prevent re org. Pro ABC Exchanges were allegedly in on it.
 Huh

(maybe repost - no time to read thread. back soon)

It doesn't really matter either way. ABC wouldn't have accepted SV blocks even without the checkpoint, so the narrative that it's somehow "cheating" makes no sense, and the checkpoint also doesn't prevent any likely attacks, so it's pointless centralization. These guys still haven't figured out how consensus systems work...

Or "He ... still actually has a bunch of mining capacity hidden away somewhere."

Oh. Would you look at that. Turns out that he did.

Smiley
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: CSW's "hash wars" impact on BTC price? on: November 15, 2018, 10:28:35 AM
ABC has far more economic support, and I suspect that enough hashrate will be moved to BCH-ABC at the critical time. It's most likely IMO that this will be resolved in ABC's favor within 48 hours.

I will be a bit surprised if SV wins, though it's not impossible. If SV wins, I suppose it'll be only after at least some weeks of war. This'd be the most funny and damaging for BCH, though I find CSW too distasteful to exactly hope for a SV win. It'd be especially funny if one side wins due to economic support despite losing on hashrate, which is possible.

I don't see much impact to BTC of losing 5-10% hashrate in this scuffle, especially since the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment is conveniently going to happen in ~1.5 days. I also don't see much fundamental reason for the BCH outcome to affect BTC's price, though who knows short-term: IMO the recent BTC crash was set off by Jihan trying to make some point (made possible due to low exchange depths/volumes).
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 14, 2018, 06:04:14 PM
"Craig Wright says he has an exploit to take down Bitcoin (BTC) by end of 2019. Does he? Or all talk?"

https://youtu.be/4TOnHAlI_Vg

WTF? I hope it's just Craig Wright talking out of his ass...

CSW's whole thing is to exploit how people tend to believe that things aren't total lies. So when he says he's Satoshi, people think "Well, I don't believe he's Satoshi, but maybe he knew Satoshi". Or "He failed to destroy BTC with mining power like he said he would last year, but maybe he still actually has a bunch of mining capacity hidden away somewhere." Or "There's no technical way for him to irrecoverably screw with SegWit transactions, but maybe he found some bug somewhere."

But really he's completely full of shit; the vast majority of claims he makes are complete lies from front to back. (And often just a tiny bit of research will make this obvious.)
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 14, 2018, 05:05:59 PM
lol i didn't post that theymos fud earlier because too fuddy and unsourced but w/e
his point is ok of course

That was my thinking as well when I first read it, but it was posted ~3 hours ago, before this crash. It strikes me as too much of a coincidence.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 14, 2018, 04:55:04 PM
Jihan is reported to have said a few hours ago regarding the BCH fork, "I have no intention to start a hash war with CSW, because if I do (by relocating hash power from btc mining to bch mining), btc price will dump below yearly support; it may even breach $5000. But since CSW is relentless, I am all in to fight till death!" I think he or someone aligned with him dumped on low volume in order to send some kind of message, though I'm not sure what that message is supposed to be: there really shouldn't be much fundamental relationship between hash power and prices except insofar as it causes technical issues (eg. slow blocks -> higher fees), but no BTC issues seem likely here.
11  Other / Meta / Re: Captcha bypass purchase. on: November 14, 2018, 09:26:13 AM
I have a question about page 4-5. Why not just hash the bb-cert codes and store them all on an onloine server (taking offline mirrors now and then every day/hour or however long but everything can be stored on an online server hypothetically)?

The server doesn't know the codes (ie. "coins") until after they're spent. They're not like eg. Amazon gift codes. In order for bb-certs to be securely sent/received, they need to be consumed and then reissued by the "bank", so the bank usually needs to be continuously online and dealing with clients, though any underlying assets (eg. BTC) could be stored offline and allowed to desync from the bank to some extent.

It also means that, if people want anonymity, they merely have to switch their codes with another trusted member or a friend who has some codes and will enable them to be less traceable on the web with the payments they want to make.

You don't need to swap bb-codes with other people for anonymity, since bb-code transactions are perfectly anonymous to begin with.
12  Other / Meta / Re: Captcha bypass purchase. on: November 13, 2018, 09:18:13 PM
I've thought about that, but it's too big of a project right now.

I actually think that it might be a good idea for a stand-alone business. I mentioned it in a document about blinded bearer certificates I wrote a while ago.
13  Economy / Reputation / Re: Should the Politics and Society section have an unbiased Moderator? on: November 12, 2018, 12:39:17 AM
Nobody's unbiased, and anyone who pretends to be is lying to either you or to themselves. The idea reminds me of the bureaucrats who run government, appearing to be neutral while actually pushing strongly for an agenda, especially tending to promote the expansion of bureaucracy as well as the continuation of the status quo. (This largely-invisible but very powerful political force is sometimes what people mean when they use the term "deep state".) Fair moderation requires that you understand yourself well enough to know what your biases actually are, and then take conscious action to avoid letting them cloud your judgement. One's skill at doing this is totally independent of political beliefs: a radical might be able to do it, and a centrist might not.

It was incorrect for OgNasty's post in that thread about the California shooting to be deleted; I restored it. I read that post as not an ad hominem; its main point seemed to be expressing a preference for localism vis-à-vis gun control, and gun control is clearly on-topic in that thread. But my impression is that Flying Hellfish has been moderating fairly on the whole. Mistakes happen.

While Flying Hellfish is pretty far left, I am an anarcho-capitalist; I view his political beliefs as ~80% insane. Having two diametrically opposed viewpoints here is a good combination which will hopefully prevent the formation of an echo chamber for one viewpoint or another. I think that people in the last several years have become largely unable to face opposing viewpoints, which isn't good.

Mods can delete whatever they want in their self-moderated threads, just like anyone else.

Perhaps theymos should change some rules there and moderator should remove spam only. Off topic replies, trolling and personal attacks are suitable for discussion about politics, as it is crucial part of politics.

It'd be OK IMO for topic-starters to express a preference for more or less moderation. But in general, on-topicness is especially important in political discussions so that one side doesn't filibuster the other with nonsense. I'm also concerned with off-topic thought-terminating clichés in political discussions (from all sides).

This stuff is all subjective. There's no such thing as perfect moderation, since everyone has a different idea of what perfection would be. You just do the best you can.
14  Economy / Auctions / Advertise on this forum - Round 260 on: November 08, 2018, 07:23:14 PM
The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem.

Ads are allowed to contain any non-annoying HTML/CSS style. No images, JavaScript, or animation. Ads must appear 3 or fewer lines tall in my browser (Firefox, 900px wide). Ad text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs[1], banks, funds, or anything else that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted.

There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post, and only for people using the default theme.

Duration

- Your ads are guaranteed to be up for at least 7 days.
- I usually try to keep ads up for no more than 8 or 9 days.
- Sometimes ads might be up for longer, but hopefully no longer than 12 days. Even if past rounds sometimes lasted for long periods of time, you should not rely on this for your ads.

Stats

Exact historical impression counts per slot:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstats

Info about the current ad slots:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfo

Ad blocking

Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads. I don't expect many people to use this option. These people don't increase the impression stats for your ads.

I try to bypass Adblock Plus filters as much as possible, though this is not guaranteed. It is difficult or impossible for ABP filters to block the ad space itself without blocking posts. However, filters can match against the URLs in your links, your CSS classes and style attributes, and the HTML structure of your ads.

To prevent matches against URLs: I have some JavaScript which fixes links blocked by ABP. You must tell me if you want this for your ads. When someone with ABP and JavaScript enabled views your ads, your links are changed to a special randomized bitcointalk.org URL which redirects to your site when visited. People without ABP are unaffected, even if they don't have JavaScript enabled. The downsides are:
- ABP users will see the redirection link when they hover over the link, even if they disable ABP for the forum.
- Getting referral stats might become even more difficult.
- Some users might get a warning when redirecting from https to http.

To prevent matching on CSS classes/styles: Don't use inline CSS. I can give your ad a CSS class that is randomized on each pageload, but you must request this.

To prevent matching against your HTML structure: Use only one <a> and no other tags if possible. If your ads get blocked because of matching done on something inside of your ad, you are responsible for noticing this and giving me new ad HTML.

Designing ads

Make sure that your ads look good when you download and edit this test page:
https://bitcointalk.org/ad_test.html
Also read the comments in that file.

Images are not allowed no matter how they are created (CSS, SVG, or data URI). Occasionally I will make an exception for small logos and such, but you must get pre-approval from me first.

The maximum size of any one ad is 51200 bytes.

I will send you more detailed styling rules if you win slots in this auction (or upon request).

Auction rules

You must be at least a Jr Member to bid. If you are not a Jr Member and you really want to bid, you should PM me first. Tell me in the PM what you're going to advertise. You might be required to pay some amount in advance. Everyone else: Please quickly PM newbies who try to bid here to warn them against impersonation scammers.

If you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM.

Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in BTC per slot. You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled.

So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 5 BTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 4 BTC and 1 slot @ 5 BTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot.

The notation "2 @ 5" means 2 slots for 5 BTC each. Not 2 slots for 5 BTC total.

- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however.
- All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 0.02.
- The bidding starts at 0.02.
- I will end the auction at an arbitrary time. Unless I say otherwise, I typically try to end auctions within a few days of 10 days from the time of this post, but unexpected circumstances may sometimes force me to end the auction anytime between 4 and 22 days from the start. I have a small bias toward ending auctions on Fridays, Sundays, and Mondays.
- If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first.
- Bids are considered invalid and will be ignored if they do not specify both a price and a max quantity, or if they could not possibly win any slots

If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done.

I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made.

You must pay for your slots within 24 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.

[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.
15  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 259 on: November 08, 2018, 07:20:52 PM
1 @ 0.14

You have negative trust from my perspective, so I won't accept your bids.

1@0.1

You pulled out of a recent auction at the last minute, so I won't accept your bids for at least some months.

Auction ended, final result:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
4 0.14 lightlord
2 0.14 FirstGlobalCredit
1 0.12 Gunthar
2 0.12 ChipMixer
16  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Fox News projects Democrats retake House on: November 07, 2018, 08:43:13 AM
I'm reasonably happy with the result. 2 years of government getting virtually nothing done, and politicians ripping each other apart: a dream come true!

I heard an interesting proposal a while ago that if the House was pretty evenly-divided like it is now, then they should select a bipartisan Speaker who would focus on common ground instead of whipping his caucus into crushing the minority. That'd probably be the smart thing for them to do, but honestly I think the Dems are going to get browbeaten into making Pelosi speaker again.

If the Democrats impeach Trump but can't get him convicted, then they're probably done for in 2020. If they lay low, then they have a favorable Senate map in 2020, and they're fairly likely to get full control at that time.
17  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Liberalism is under attack from both sides on: November 05, 2018, 06:37:49 PM
It's also interesting I have seen you make a comment about preferring to reshape an environment as the best means to solve problems.  Imagine if the political environment was reshaped so the politicians focus was on the constituents best interest as opposed to lying to them while doing what their bosses (corporations) want.

If there was a benevolent dictator to maintain such an environment, then it might work OK. But in reality that sort of thing would have to be done through some government institution which would ultimately be controlled by politicians. (Even if you try to make it some independent body, it wouldn't work: look at how well the Supreme Court has been at being politically-neutral and independent...). So for example if campaigns were exclusively publicly-funded, then the system would be either initially designed or eventually corrupted to massively favor incumbents and disfavor third parties, since that's what the people in power would want.

The leftist solution to government problems is to expand government, creating endless oversight positions. But this doesn't address the real problem of politics itself being broken, since every part of government will at some level be determined by politics. The ultimate solution is to minimize the size of government as a whole so that politicians don't have as much opportunity to cause harm, and corporations don't have any incentive to bribe them etc. This is the way I'd like to change the environment.
18  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Liberalism is under attack from both sides on: November 05, 2018, 11:05:17 AM
I find it really frustrating that I usually find myself agreeing more with conservatives nowadays even though at heart I really believe in (classical) liberalism. The left is so screwed up; they used to at least sometimes say good things, but now they're more like a crazy cult. Democrats' opposition against Trump is a good example: I don't like Trump at all, and you could fill whole libraries with books on how his views&actions are immoral, anti-freedom, and low-utility; however, the Democrats barely ever attack him on actual policy, and instead just jump on him for daring to defy the left-cult's dogma.

Politics just doesn't work. The whole idea of having to convince a bunch of idiots that you're right is a bad one; even if you succeed, the costs are too high and the end result too fragile. To the greatest extent possible, I recommend changing the world through methods where you don't have to convince anyone of anything in order to start moving forward. (Satoshi's creation of Bitcoin being the best example.)
19  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: tv show "startup" (about crypto) on: November 03, 2018, 04:15:10 PM
This forum for example is a cryptocurrency(bitcoin) platform,but the money raised In here is via FIAT, and theymos gets paid as well as pays his MODS in FIAT, USD) currencies
We use FIAT currencies to promote this forum(paid advert,corper membership,evil IP etc, they are all paid for in US dollars)

No... Only BTC is accepted for ads and copper memberships; 100% of the forum's income has always been BTC. ~80% of the forum's expenses are also paid in BTC, including all mod payments.
20  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Looking back at the White paper... Do you think Satoshi would be proud of us? on: October 31, 2018, 06:45:25 PM
It is a bit disappointing, though not surprising. The fact is that most people don't particularly desire the kind of freedom that Bitcoin provides, and furthermore they can't handle it (eg. secure key management). But the most important thing is that anyone can use Bitcoin trustlessly if they want. Maybe some of the people who are getting exposed to Bitcoin through centralized services will eventually move toward trustlessness over time. (Though maybe only after getting repeatedly burned by the costs of trust...) The biggest key to decreasing trusted-service-use is IMO in making it far easier and cheaper to do so securely. For example, cheap, secure, and trustless hardware wallets and point-of-sale terminals would go a long way.
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