If they live up to the terms as they were written on the listings for the "pre order" units, you'll get $864 in credit with no restrictions, not coupons. So you should be able to use the full $864 to buy a single miner.

From the current S17e pre order listing:

Tweet from Bitmain suggests coupons are coming for orders shipped between 10/1 and 11/10.

https://twitter.com/Antminer_main/status/1191953585669640193?s=20

Can't legally do that. Unless you falsify the shipping/import documents, they will charge you 27.6% since it was manufactured in China. Doesn't matter if it stops in Canada.

Just checked my S17 Dec. batch preorder and the price listed dropped. Originally was $2107, now listed at $1681. Seems premature with still over a month before they are supposed to ship, but looking like $426 credit per S17 coming as of now...

My S17 pros that arrived on Friday came from China, shipped to Canada.

Phil, were all those orders were placed through the website? I know they were offering the Malaysian units to larger customers, maybe some pulled orders when the price crashed so they started filling some online orders from the extra stock there.

But why would they not create a separate batch for units shipping from Malaysia? Seems crazy to just randomly start sending them out.

Yeah, soldering iron alone is not going to work. You'll probably end up destroying the circuit board before getting all the connections off.

Might help to read through this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5187647.0

Looks like they've reduced prices. Response to Bitmain's price drops? $1978 for the 1166 and $1204 for the 1146.

Also added a new 10 series model, 1026.

https://canaan.io/store-2/

I'm sure that's the sentiment of the vast majority of miners, not that many diehards out there that will give up profit to support a smaller pool.


If a PPLNS pool is large enough, there isn't really any penalty, and you'll pay about 1/2 the fee. You may get good or bad luck during short ramp ups or ramp downs, but they will even out over time. For a 5000PH PPLNS pool variance may cause you to make less some months than PPS, but not by that much. And over the course of 6 months or a year I think the chances of performing worse than PPS is very small when paying say 2% vs 4% in fees.

It'll definitely be interesting to see what happens after the halving. Depending on where the price and diff land at the halving, a lot of gear could get turned off all at once. If diff goes flat or declines some right after the halving it erases the penalty for mining at a PPLNS pool that doesn't find multiple blocks per diff adjustment. Could be a bit of a life-line for those smaller pools.

Bitmain already has manufacturing set up in Malaysia and they are offering miners manufactured there to larger US customers. My host has offered his customers multiple group buys shipping from Malaysia with no extra 25% tariff. I just got another offer from him this morning for s17 pros for the same price as on the Bitmain website, $2128.

Might take up most or all of their manufacturing capacity there for a long time to fill a $50 million farm, but I'm sure Bitmain would make it happen.

I think the tariffs are going nowhere until after the presidential election. Trump isn't going to back down, and China is trying to wait out the clock hoping Trump won't get re-elected. So at least a year. Getting a contract manufacturer in Malaysia, Vietnam, or elsewhere to make the products is not much effort to be able to offer a 25% discount to  USA customers for a year.

Yeah, the time to bail would have been several months ago to have a real chance at getting fully ramped down before the halving.

I'm definitely not trying to give advice here, I'm just speculating that hashrate has fallen and may continue to fall because of this. And that it may rebound after the halving. Hopefully, it will bounce back to levels high enough so miners don't get screwed by the increasing diff.

I don't think Kano's block-finding bonus is high enough to make it even with moving to a large pool between now and the halving.

I'll take a wild guess and say the diff will average 16T between now and the halving. That means a 2PH miner should make about 6.3BTC between now and the halving if fully ramped up.

Average time for 2PH to find a block is 397 days.  I think you're chances to find a block in the 200 days before the halving is around 40%. So, if you're a gambler, your expected reward from the bonus is about 0.2BTC*.4 = 0.08BTC.

If you take the 2PH and move it to another PPLNS pool with high enough hashrate to ramp up in less than a few days, you earn the nearly same 6.3BTC, plus 3.14BTC during the ramp down. That is assuming exactly 100% luck and hashrate doesn't fall so low you miss getting blocks at all or the ramp down extends past the halving. If the hashrate at Kano is the same after the halving and diff is 19T, then it would take 236 days to ramp back up, but since the block reward is 1/2, the expected reward is 3.14BTC when fully ramped up, or 1.57BTC if ramping up. So gained 3.14BTC pre-halving, and lost 1.57BTC post-halving, net gain of 1.57BTC.

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Well, setting aside that your whole post is off-topic, your issue is about high variance with a small PPLNS pool, not with PPLNS. A 5000PH pool will find around 220 blocks a month at current diff, so variance is way less and your chance of going a month without a block is pretty much 0. Once a PPLNS pool gets small enough that you don't find a block between diff adjustments, then you'll end up losing significant earnings if diff is increasing. Kano has posted about that many times.

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My point is that I expect that any small PPLNS pool under 100PH or so would lose miners leading up to the halving because of the potential profit from switching. Current miners at smaller pools adding gear would also profit more from pointing their new gear to a larger pool. After the halving, I think people will come back so hashrate could be significantly higher post-halving than now.

I have some gear coming online in the next couple of months, so I have been thinking about what pool to point them at.

I'm not interested in pps pools, so I'm only really looking at PPLNS. The issue is ramp up/ramp down.

For a 20PH pool, ramp up is now 161 days. Looks like diff is going to jump up to 13.6T in a few hours, so it will go to 169. With a bunch of new gear coming online, diff will could be >16T by the end of the year, and ramp up will go to >198 days.

For a 6500PH pool, ramp up at 13.6T diff is only half a day.

With just over 200 days to the halving and difficulty increasing, pointing new gear to a 20PH PPLNS pool means you might barely be fully ramped up before the halving. That means that any new gear pointed to a 20PH pool now will only get about half the reward between now and the halving compared to the 6500PH pool. During the eventual ramp down on the small pool post halving, I'd get only 50% what I put in on the ramp up, so I'd loose 25% of the reward for that 6 month ramp up. As much as I'd like to support the small pool, I can't donate 25% of my rewards for over 6 months, and I'm going to have to go with the 6500PH pool.

Right after the halving though, this is no longer an issue, so I'll start moving my rigs to the smaller pool. I'm assuming many other miners are in the same boat, I'd expect hashrate at smaller pools to take off after the halving.

If a miner fully ramped up on a 20PH pool changed pools now to a 6500PH pool, they might be fully ramped down on the small pool by the halving. But while they ramp down, they'd be fully ramped up on the big pool so they'd earn 1.5X normal on average between now and the halving. That's a lot of pressure for miners to jump ship, but I suspect many would come back after the halving. If a lot of people bail, then the ramp down would get extended further into post-halving, and they'd get less, but still more than sticking it out at the small pool.

Any holes or miscalculations in my reasoning?

S17e also now available for Dec. delivery at $2083 but with 2 unit limit per customer. That's $250 less than the Jan. pre-order batch.

Did they drop the price before or after BTC tanked $500?

Yeah, wonder if it is a direct response to the Canaan 11 series.

50th - 40W/th @ $2150 shipping in 7 days no interest for 6 months, vs 68th - 47W/th @  $2200 shipping in 4 months pay in full now.

Of course, a week after these sell out of these they'll throw up a new batch of S17+ at even lower $/TH...

And right on cue BTC price tanks below $7500... lol. I'm sure that'll put a damper on the Blokforge orders.

4 Month delivery is just too long, I'll just wait and see what happens. I wish they would have just waited until at least mid-Dec. if not Jan. to offer these.

Will you be offering a PPLNS payout at a lower fee?

The fee listed on your website for PPS+ is 3%, is that an introductory rate?

I emailed Canaan sales and asked for details. I just got a reply this morning. They say the MOQ is 60.

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11 Series now on the website.

https://canaan.io/store/

So either they are trying to be deceptive for some reason or their representative here is misinformed. Very strange.

They tweeted this our this morning as well. Still isn't clear what "partners" means, but they tweeted it out for everyone to see so maybe it is a public offer.

https://twitter.com/canaanio/status/1185183766223839232

Pricing looks good now compared to all other options, but nearly 4 months until delivery?!

It's interesting that they list Qty 1-99, previously they did not take direct orders for small quantities so you'd have to go to one of the distributors. I wonder if that is going to change for these batches.

The email suggests that the coupons are only for "partners", so guessing they won't be given to everyone.