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741
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Price cannot go less than $40.41
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on: April 13, 2013, 08:46:17 PM
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Indeed, it seems OP has fallen to the sunk costs fallacy. If one cannot regain already-lost costs, the best action is to regain as much of it as possible, not to wait whilst the amount that can be regained dwindles. TL/DR price drives difficulty, difficulty never has and never will drive price
There is actually a minor effect that many fail to notice. An adjustment to a higher difficulty generally decreases miner profits, and with decreased profits comes deflation. This, however, makes very little impact. |
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743
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Do you think the Queen is buying up Bitcoins?
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on: April 11, 2013, 11:28:21 PM
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Not to be a racist or anything, but the queen of England is just that, the queen of England, yet the title assumes she is the queen of the whole world. It should be changed to reflect that fact.
She is also the Queen of Canada and 14 other states. Ironically, she is actually not the Queen of England—that post has been empty since Queen Anne. |
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745
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Economy / Economics / Re: After stealing the money, the Jews stole cyprus's 400 million Euro's worth gold.
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on: April 11, 2013, 08:23:17 PM
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But it just so happens that individuals of Jewish origin are greatly over represented amongst those who are running the current corrupt global financial system, responsible for systematically wrecking economies and plundering wealth. All the biggest banks, are largely owned and controlled by moguls of Jewish origin. I know that most of you are fkn idiots who are incapable of even recognising what independent thought is, but that much has got to be allowed to be said. And the full range of reasons why this might be the case has to be allowed to be considered.
It just so happens that individuals with last names beginning with "O" are overrepresented in the US executive branch. Does this mean we blame the people with last names beginning with "O"? Bigotry is the result of innumeracy and logical illiteracy, not "independent thought". If it's anyone we should be pointing fingers at, it's the ones that do the oppressing and blame everything upon everyone else. Ostracizing the Nazi, the anti-Semitic, the bigot, the homophobe, etc. is not "aligning oneself with the perceived popular response". It is an individual statement that generalizations will not be tolerated. It is an action in the hopes of avoiding the errors we have made in the past. It is forcing others to take responsibility for their own actions, not blaming them on scapegoats. |
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747
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Economy / Speculation / Re: More stable with time
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on: April 11, 2013, 12:06:08 AM
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In the largest flash crash so far, in 2011, Bitcoin went from around $30 to around $3, losing 90% of its value. Today, Bitcoin went from $265 to $105, losing 60% of its value.
I predict this trend to continue, and for Bitcoin value to continue to become more and more stable as time goes on, even as the price rises.
I hope you realize that timescales make a difference. |
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748
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Parity watch -> Albania
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on: April 10, 2013, 11:56:24 AM
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Yeah, I agree. The bitcoin float is more like M0.
Also it turns out these digital fiat bank deposits (M1) are not as sterile as economists/banker/govts would have us believe, it seems like there are hidden claims on them by sovereign and other unspecified creditors (particularly look at deposit "covered bonds" and convertible notes that are being traded against customers deposits in the shadow banking system.)
Yes. It would be nice to have an unambiguous M0 report, and get M3 back, wouldn't it? M1 for Bitcoin should be significantly over M0. Mt. Gox is the proprietor of most of this debt, 1.5 million BTC worth, and they are not obligated to hold any reserves (so that is 100% that is floating). |
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750
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Other / Beginners & Help / Re: February difficulty spike?
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on: April 07, 2013, 07:49:40 PM
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It looks like a huge amount of hashing capacity joined the network in feb: http://bitcoindifficulty.com/This seems to have preceded the current price run by 6 weeks or so. Did a lot of people get into mining at once? I was under the impression that not that many ASICs had been released yet, and this is a tripling of hash capacity since 2/1 and now. Is there somewhere to see the total number of nodes on the network? I'm curious as to how that hashing capacity is spread out. I assume that at the very least the pools would have that information... is it aggregated anywhere? ASICs have been released. 300 Avalon Batch 1: ~20 Th/s ASICMiner: ~12 Th/s |
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752
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Economy / Speculation / Re: why the inconsitencys in speculation.
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on: April 06, 2013, 02:17:45 AM
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Graphs are great for proving what happened.
I have a graph of what has happened for the past 3 months:
/
/
/
^
Now take that graph and throw it away.
The price will either do this:
_/
or this:
_
\
Or should I have better graphs to make it more believable?
What about this?
______
Or this?
_/\ /\
\/ \/
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753
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Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Have I The Bandwidth ?
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on: April 05, 2013, 04:04:19 AM
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no you will be fine, you misunderstood the page. Bandwidth is how much access you have to the internet some ISP caps it around 250GB, some allow unlimited. You should be fine if your speed is only 4.5mbps.
Bandwidth refers to speed. Throughput refers to amount of data. The page should be updated to remedy this improper usage. |
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754
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Millis or Millies?
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on: April 05, 2013, 03:46:30 AM
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In the near future we will likely be talking about bitcoins using the mBTC valuation for common items.
What should the naming convention be when speaking of milli-bitcoins(hyphen?)?
What about symbol? m฿?
Well, if polls matter, this was already voted on two years ago: what should we call a milli-Bitcoin ? And the winner is .... "millibit": - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/MilliBitIsn't this the name of a client? I prefer bitmill or millibitcoin. Millibit means 0.001 bits, which is a unit of information, not currency. |
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755
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Millis or Millies?
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on: April 05, 2013, 02:39:59 AM
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The correct one would technically be "mill", as that is the proper term for 1/1000 of a currency unit.
Sounds a lot like "million"--e.g. "A cool mil" That's only true because of inflation. The mill is still sometimes used in specialized fields, but was once a common unit of exchange. |
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757
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Negative Public Image
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on: April 05, 2013, 12:35:15 AM
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It doesn't matter what you consider as part of the Bitcoin economy. Silk Road is, and will always be, an insignificant part of it.
Do you also think it wasn't responsible for bringing bitcoin's value up initially in 2009~2011? It was. But it isn't anymore, and so the negative image that comes with it is outdated and no longer relevant. |
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758
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Negative Public Image
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on: April 05, 2013, 12:19:30 AM
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They aren't! You would have to be investing BTC into SOMETHING ELSE. That's like saying trading USD for Yen is part of the GDP. If anything BTC would count as part of the US economy as an asset being invested into.
^^ He is on the right track of thinking but not fully understanding it.
I honestly do not know what you are trying to argue. The numbers don't lie. Silk Road (past 30 days): 30000 BTC. Bitcoin network, minus change (actual transaction volume): 8979180 BTC. It doesn't matter what you consider as part of the Bitcoin economy. Silk Road is, and will always be, an insignificant part of it. |
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759
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Negative Public Image
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on: April 05, 2013, 12:11:16 AM
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GDP is production of goods valued in currency. Not the currency itself.
Just because trillions of dollars trade in the currency and derivatives markets does not mean US GDP goes up. So, of the things you listed, gambling and drugs/vice are the vast majority of the economy of BTC. this has to change. That is important. when you buy a dell computer for $1,000, it counts as $1,000. In the example in the posts above they would count it as $3-6,000 (1k to dell, 1k when visa charged your card, 1k when visa send the money to dell, 1k on the sell from USD to RMB when dell sold the f/x, another for the buy side of each transaction etc.). Exchanges are not part of GDP. is part of GDP. If these exchanges aren't investment, I don't know what is. |
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760
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Negative Public Image
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on: April 05, 2013, 12:00:22 AM
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Bitcoin has had a ton of positive publicity recently and nobody ever complains when positive publicity is based on hyperbole rather than fact.
Bitcoin is absolutely being traded like a commodity at the moment. It's naive to believe that the majority of people speculating on Bitcoin prices right now intend to hold them long term or use them to purchase things. Many of them will dump their coins when there's little volatility.
Yes, there's a lot of lazy journalism. This applies to both the good and the bad. Time after time inaccurate articles start off on arstechnica or wired and nobody does any fact-checking before they start appearing everywhere else. That's equally true of mainstream news stories.
For every person who wants Bitcoin to "go mainstream", there's another Bitcoin user who thinks that could kill Bitcoin and that the emphasis should be on it being a disruptive technology.
There's no cohesive "Bitcoin agenda". Nor does there need to be. People want and expect different things from Bitcoin and they use it for different reasons and in different ways. It's not surprising, then, that media reporting regarding Bitcoin is all over the place and rarely balanced.
It's pretty much up to each of the groups with an agenda (whether it's the "mainstreamers" or the crypto-anarchists), to take responsibility for getting the kinds of stories they'd like to see about Bitcoin published - bearing in mind that each group will likely be displeased by a report regarded as "positive" by the other.
Bitcoin unfortunately still connotes "drugs", "gambling", or other illegal things, even though these have now become very small portions of the Bitcoin economy. They are the vast majority of the bitcoin economy. Show me a business processing more revenue in BTC than SatoshiDice/Sealswithclubs/silk road. BFL and Avalon don't really count. The major advantages of bitcoin lend themselves perfectly to these activities and is its best chance of growing as a currency and not just a commodity. Silk Road does approximately 30000 BTC per month in sales. SatoshiDICE has 150000 BTC per month in gambles. BTC-E deals with as many BTC per month as SatoshiDICE. It's the 4th largest exchange, accounting for 4% of Bitcoin to fiat trading. Bit-pay processes $5.2 million USD monthly. That's about 80000 BTC at the March weighted average. BTCGuild mines 36% of all mined bitcoins. In the past month, that was over 50000 BTC. No, Bitcoin is not "mostly used for gambling and drugs". Other than bitpay none of those things are uses for bitcoins. You're naming ways they're created and places they're bought and sold. Mining, contrary to popular belief, is not "creating" bitcoins. Eventually, mining will actually be creating no bitcoins at all. Mining is a legitimate industry where you paid to process transactions. Saying mining doesn't count is like saying Visa doesn't count. Mt. Gox or other exchanges are also not just "places they're bought and sold". We don't say the stock market is just "places USD is bought or sold", and similarly we cannot ignore the largest contributor to Bitcoin GDP. |
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