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1  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 03, 2016, 03:52:30 PM
XMR to .005-.01 in 2016 seems likely to me too.


Hi Guys!

It's been a while since i've posted. Many thanks to all of you on this board for your insightful comments. It was due to this board that I continued to accumulate all through last year and even during some of the dips to .0009. As it turns out It was a life-changing decision! Looking forward to see where this goes!
2  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 25, 2016, 07:46:28 PM
Just had an amusing argument with a coworker who has heard my Monero exploits and saw me looking Polo earlier.  
  
Quote
"So if I buy Monero, where will it be at in 6 months?"    
  
"I don't know and anyone who says they do is probably lying."  
  
"But you own it."  
  
"Yes, a lot.  Everything I have is in it."  
  
"So what if I put 30 thousand dollars in it.  Will I double it?"  
  
"I don't think you should do that.  Are you prepared to lose every cent of that 30 thousand dollars?"  
  
"Well no, I don't want to lose that money."  
  
"Then definitely don't put it in cryptocurrency.  If you want some, only put in what you are prepared to totally lose."  
  
"Ok, but what are the chances of it going to zero?"  
  
"I don't know - I can only tell you that I have all my savings into it, and I am prepared to lose every dime of that.  It will hurt, but I will still be eating.  You should not buy this if you don't understand it."  
  
"Ok, but someone surely understand it.  What are they saying Monero goes to say.... by the end of the year?"  
  
"Listen, I am the smartest person you have access to regarding this stuff, and I simply don't know - nor would it be ethical for me to guess when I already own it and you are considering putting money into this.  I could ask the smartest person I have access to about this, and they still probably wouldn't know."  
  
"Ok, so what if I put 30 thousand dollars into this."  
  
"What if I told you there was a hot penny stock that could guarantee to double your money in 6 months; would you buy it?"  
  
"Well, no."  
  
"So why are you so gung ho to shovel so much money into this?"  
  
"What was Monero at 2 months ago?"  
  
"About 40 cents."  
  
"What is it now?"  
  
"80 cents."  
  
"So I could have already doubled my money?  Fuckkkk."  
  
"Yes, but that is the past.  Now you have to decide if it's worth 80 cents.  I think you should read about it and consider putting in just a little money, no more than you are willing to completely lose."
 

Bottom line: it happened before with Bitcoin and it will happen again.  There's going to be some hardcore FOMO going around and it's going to cause a lot of people to lose money buying Monero at the peak.  Make sure you don't promise anyone anything with regards to it - and let them know you are prepared for it to go to zero, even if you hope it doesn't.




I had a similar discussion with a friend two months ago. Although he only wanted to invest $1500 - Anyway, He did it and is now happy about doubling his money.
3  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 02, 2016, 07:59:10 PM
Not impressed by Zcrap. Buying more XMR.
4  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 01, 2016, 06:39:37 PM
I think that XMR and BITCOIN are on the brink of poping up to higher price levels.
5  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: January 28, 2016, 09:52:05 PM
Am I imagining things or has there been a shitload of Monero developments in the past week? 
 
An OS, new communities, 32-bit binaries, a tentative new GUI commit, and to top it all off the Nick Szabo article (just kidding about that last one). 
 
2016 is looking great, and I've been talking it up so much that people in real life are even mentioning it by name these days. 

Yeah i'm feeling the same vibe.
6  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: January 26, 2016, 11:54:14 PM
When the Winklevoss decided to acquire 1% of Bitcoin in the early days, it sent the price skyrocketing, right?  
  
I need to try to find the speculation threads of when that was happening.  I'm sure early fans were freaking out and discussing technicals and all manner of irrelevant signals.  Meanwhile what was actually happening was some whale had decided to acquire a huge stake and the market felt it.  
  
Also, perhaps a meteoric rise is actually possible, since I am one of the biggest bulls out there and even I think a rise to .005 would be ridiculous by summer.  It's when no one expects it that price goes to Alpha Centauri.  

This is my perspective from the point of view of someone who was there at the time. The XBT/USD exchange rate from mid 2011 to the end of 2013 was influenced to a significant degree by the rise and collapse of two massive XBT naked short positions. These were pirateat40 who at its peak led the market to believe he was good on around 800,000 XBT and MTGox who also at its peak led the market to believe it was good for around 800,000 XBT. To put things into perspective the total number of XBT during the same period of time ranged from about 6.7 million to 12 million. These means we are talking of naked short positions in the neighborhood of over 10% of all XBT.

The influence of massive naked short short positions on any market is very predictable. First there is falling and then stable prices as the short positions are built up. Then when the market starts to rise on its own accord the shorts are squeezed to the wall causing a meteoric rise in prices and after the dust settles the market ends up at significantly higher price levels. The Winklevoss were among many smart money investors both large and small who played the classic naked short squeeze: 1) Buy 2) Take Delivery 3) Wait 4) Profit. 

The situation with Monero is actually very different since there are no massive naked short positions waiting to be squeezed. The fundamentals are very strong but in a different way.


Thanks for the perspective. What are your thoughts on the next 12months for BTC and XMR?
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Competition of BTC on: January 26, 2016, 10:41:14 PM
The only one worth watching is Dash

Ethereum could be big one day but right now its too small. It needs time to evolve.

DASH? Monero has Ring CT and will spank Dash hard.
8  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: January 26, 2016, 09:54:11 PM

Wow that was fast!? Epic.
9  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: January 26, 2016, 08:46:44 PM
When the Winklevoss decided to acquire 1% of Bitcoin in the early days, it sent the price skyrocketing, right? 
 
I need to try to find the speculation threads of when that was happening.  I'm sure early fans were freaking out and discussing technicals and all manner of irrelevant signals.  Meanwhile what was actually happening was some whale had decided to acquire a huge stake and the market felt it. 
 
Also, perhaps a meteoric rise is actually possible, since I am one of the biggest bulls out there and even I think a rise to .005 would be ridiculous by summer.  It's when no one expects it that price goes to Alpha Centauri. 

I read they started buying at $9, so that would be around summer 2012. The price was then stable around $10-13 for months after that, there was even some uncertainty in the air because of the pirateat40 scam coming undone. Nobody was sure what would happen when the block reward halved, people saying it was already priced in, etc. Certainly their buying took a lot of BTC off the table, but there were a lot of people quietly buying at that time...it was a good time!  Cheesy



My guess is it will play out the same. A year from now all we'll see is people who wish they had bough in around this time.
10  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: January 22, 2016, 08:56:25 PM
XMR to .005-.01 in 2016 seems likely to me too.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: January 21, 2016, 06:01:07 PM
Monero is very appealing.
12  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: January 20, 2016, 06:55:16 PM
A for-profit coin company, i dont care what they make, iwill never trust them.

Agreed that is the opportunity to beat them by open sourcing their code. But you will also need my block chain technology to make the big win.

moreover RingCT will move Monero closer to Zcash

Sorry no. It is still not immune to meta-data and the theoretical combinatorial analysis. Not reliable. Not realistic.

We need to move forward. It is up to you, I know my thinking and priorities on this matter.


Would this metadata and combinatorial analysis hold even if mixin 10 was a default on all tx's?
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many bitcoins do I need to retire in 20 years? on: January 20, 2016, 06:05:24 PM
in 20 years 1-2 BTC will be enough to retire on.
14  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [AEON] Aeon Speculation on: January 19, 2016, 07:55:32 PM
Where do you gents buy your Aeon?
15  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: January 19, 2016, 06:56:29 AM
To go back to some price speculation, the weekly MACD has flipped to green, which is pretty exciting. It flipped 3 times in our history, all 3 times it was precedent to, or during, a (major) rally.

Since bitcoinwisdom doesn't have all the data available crypttrader seems a broken for the last few days, I'll use two charts.

First, crypttrader, so the start is also observable:



Second, bitcoinwisdom, for the current trend:



The long downslide also seems to be broken:



FYI: I use log scale on all the charts, because it gives a more appropriate image in my opinion. Certainly in high volatility markets such as crypto.


looks like a good time to buy
16  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: January 04, 2016, 07:33:26 PM
Marketing is the weakness of Monero currently.
There is no marketing taking place...

...Monero is the internet's best kept secret and the community suffers from a serious lack of publicity and marketing. ...

I have felt this for quite a while. Clock's ticking, and all the advantages and strengths of Monero vis a vis other Cryptos are being appropriated by other technically inferior coins that have much better marketing. I feel bad for being so critical, when I myself am doing nothing to help the coin, but am hoping that someone with skills in the needed areas, skills which I do not have, will decide to do something before it is too late.

GUI. Smart mining. Please. Before it is too late. If it is not too late already.

edit:grammar

GUIs - already exist. Anyone in normal space doesn't give a damn whether a GUI is official or not. My first bitcoin was managed through blockchain.info via coinbase. In fact, I never used a client / core software on my PC for bitcoin (and I bet this is true for 99.9% of the people that don't traverse bitcointalk). And I bet 99% of newcomers to monero will be quite satisfied with mymonero.com, which is equivalent to blockchain.info.

Smart mining - not going to really do much for marketing, IMO. More of a nice feature that boosts the fundamentals of the currency network.

Unfortunately (or fortunately for us hodlers) the easiest and most effective method of marketing would be market-by-moon. Using very curse and naive calculations based on numbers on poloniex, to hit 1 XMR = 2 BTC (which is a good moonshot, considering) would take 2557 bitcoin, or approximately 1.1 million USD.

So if you know anyone with 1.1 million USD to burn and wants to make a quick buck (because the FOMO wave that this would cause would probably allow enough liquidity and demand to make a tidy sum off of this kind of bubble), have at it!

For an even crazier moonshot, 9713 bitcoin would be needed, to drive 1 XMR = 5000 BTC, or 4.2 million USD.

For reference, a 30 second ad in the superbowl is 4.5 million USD.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-31064972

In less than 30 seconds, (clicking some things on poloniex) you could blow 4.5 million on a very effective advertising campaign for monero.




Sorry, what? 1 XMR = 2 BTC for 1.1Million? That doesn't sound right.
17  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: January 02, 2016, 09:51:35 PM
Great surprise! Awesome work!
18  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 26, 2015, 09:52:14 AM
I feel like XMR will stay low until Q1 2016 and then take off growing and surprising many folk in the latter parts of that year.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Roughly 8 months to go before the next having. What will the impact on price be? on: December 01, 2015, 07:10:40 PM
We will rise to a new base of $500-700 before the halving.

The subsequent bubble will take us back to $1k, then up to $7k
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nights Watch by Afrikoin on: November 09, 2015, 06:36:05 PM
Quote from: mnandii


I expect bitcoin to bottom at about $85 dollars and that will be your opportunity to buy aggressively.   


source: http://www.wazua.co.ke/forum.aspx?g=posts&t=33165




I'd love a shot at $85 bitcoins.


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