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281  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin network jammed? on: December 06, 2018, 04:29:34 PM
Please don't use bitcoin to send money somewhere if you want it to go through quickly. It's meant to be a store of value not a currency.
look how low and bottom of the barrel things get, where people make loads of new accounts to try telling people not to use bitcoin

in this topic alone i think i have spotted 3 posts made by 1 person using 3 different accounts.
and separately a bunch of new accounts that think they know best. trying to tell people that bitcoin is bad

the only thing bad about bitcoin is the lack of development. the developers want people to think bitcoin is bad because they have $$millions involved in promoting other networks

bitcoin lost its fee priority mechanism 4 years ago due to developers. and developers should have put in a new fe priority that does a better job. they didnt.

having 20k tx's in mempool all using the same suggested low fee's simply because of badly coded fee 'estimate' is like having a 2000 seat airplane where the airport had a bad seat booking system that has 20k passangers all paying economy seat prices. thus the captains dont know who deserves the seats the most.

bitcoin blockchain is not broke. but the node software that aids users to choose a fee needs sorting

No one is forcing anyone to use Core software. If you doni't like how Core software guesstimates the best recommended fee, then you can use any other software, or you can go on and code your own node software.

Blaming Core because "they don't raise the blocksize" is delusional and a waste of time. Even if Core said yes:

1) There would be a lot of people in Core that wouldn't agree because there are too many people now
2) There would be other people with skin in the game that wouldn't agree that aren't part of Core

You need unanimous agreement otherwise you get 2 chains again and more nonsense (see the Bcash ABC vs BCash Craig insanity)
282  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 100,000+ BTC moved into segwit addresses on: December 06, 2018, 04:09:39 PM
I like these forms of speculation, because it's just that, speculation. We can see the movements, but only guess who they belong to, and what the intentions are. That's the true power of Bitcoin.

It seems that the coins have been transferred to Segwit addresses for the sole reason of enjoying lower fees, because moving coins back and forth that often is quite a costly practice. It's probably an exchange or OTC desk creating smaller blocks of coins to be sold.

What if this turns out to be Bakkt setting up their shit? Bakkt won't wait till the last moment to accumulate coins, they do it well before they actually launch, and the market is well positioned at current levels to allow further accumulation at lower levels.

No shortage of theories.  Cheesy

The pristine coins that haven't been touched are well known, say pre 2012

This OP doesn't really say anything, on a bad year BITMAIN takes in this many coins

Lastly, as LEO has proved mixers don't work, there is nothing that PALANTIR(CIA) cannot track on the block-chain.


IMHO if this is true, and like most things here I assume its just another lie, but if its true it could be just a normal whale reducing his exposure to hacking, say I hack one address with 100k coin, its far better for them to own 100k addresses with one coin, that way they can sleep at night knowing that they'll always have 99% with no risk of losing 100%.

Hackers can & do hack bitcoin, I hit 0.01 btc accounts infrequently, but 0.05 are the most common HODLR 'moron' ownership amount, and of course 0.001 are like flies on feces

Who is LEO? I don't understand that acronym. I think I have heard LEA before (Law Enforcement Agency) but not LEO??

Anyway, can you present evidence of they being able to find coins after being mixed? I've never heard it before. In fact, as far as I know a ton of MtGox were never recovered and that was back then. Nowadays there seem to be really complex mixers that release coins at random times like helix.
283  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Any realistic risks on price decrease/hashrate decrease? on: December 05, 2018, 05:42:45 PM
I have relaized this is nonsense and has happened after every big crash. Please refer to this:

Then months later we have this:

The guy on that tweet predicted it.

There's also a good article that debunks the mining downward spiral collapse:

It couldn't happen due the incentives breaking, I only see a deliberate attack by TPTB looking for a weaker network moment with decreased hashrate. However if they haven't done it years ago, I don't see how can they pull it anymore, the amount of hashrate is ridiculously high.

Even if after massive expenses they managed to break something, they would just get forked off as no one would support an attacker's blockchain.
284  Economy / Economics / The mining downward spiral FUD was predicted months ago on: December 05, 2018, 04:57:28 PM
I've seen a lot of people, specially mainstream media, reporting on how Bitcoin would crash because the economic incentives would collapse if the price went way below the cost of opportunity to produce more bitcoin supply. Everytime the price has collapsed a lot we've seen these. Well this guy predicted it months ago:

Lowest hanging fruit for the next batch of unsubstantiated FUD will be the "mining death spiral" articles that appear every bear market and halving. "Once the price hits <insert random number> miners will turn off their equipment and bitcoin will die"

Then months later we have this:

The FUD machine has begun to go at full steam with the doomsday predictions: bottom's close.
285  Economy / Economics / Re: Was Crypto Started by Western Elites? on: December 05, 2018, 04:43:25 PM

- Bitcoin has not been killed by a combination of regulation, market manipulation, and propaganda after 10 years.  As turbulent as the price has been, Bitcoin has been an excellent long-term bet.  Whatever assault it has suffered, it always seems to survive.

One could claim that they haven't killed it because it's too late. Bitcoin was able to fly under the radar for all these first initial years in which it was vulnerable, but the elites haven't recognized it or even became aware of it's existence after the network effect was too big to kill it.

If they tried to kill, it could have 2 negatives for the nation states trying to do so:

-They could no longer be able to claim they are "free countries". They would be going full totalitarian on it, hard to defend this for a marketing PoV where you are supposed to be on the land of the free or whatever they like to sell it.
-If they finally tried to kill it, and they failed, they could be seen as impotent and it would only strengthen Bitcoin long term after it recovers.

The theory that SN are the elites and they are custodian of all these coins is also valid, but they would need to move these coins first, which goes against their incentives since there would be a panic sell, so they can't basically move it.
286  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UFC 231: Holloway vs Ortega Prediction and Info Thread on: December 05, 2018, 03:59:42 PM
Max Holloway should win against Ortega and end his undefeated record in my opinion, he is the overall better fighter. He got beaten up badly by McGregor but he wants to rise again and is motivated (just like McGregor is extra motivated now after losing twice)

Schevkenchko should win against Joanna, I think Joanna has lost it and is going the same route as Rousey, may retire after this if she losses.

Im not sure about the rest of the card.

287  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tyson Fury vs Deontay Wilder: Predictions thread on: December 05, 2018, 03:35:12 PM
Anthony Joshua is going to destroy both of these two chumps if/when he faces them. Itís going to be a demolition show when he faces them.

I wouldn't say it would be a way in the park for Anthony Joshua. Joshua doesn't have Wilder's power to try to get a lucky punch through the 12 rounds to ko Fury (and Fury shown he can survive Wilder's power).

Fury has superior boxing skills than both Wilder and Joshua, he hits hard but doesn't have their power.

Overall it's always an interesting match between these guys, will watch all of them, but will not gamble, with these scammy decisions you are just prone to lose money and get mad at it.

I also suspect Joshua is on steroids. He doesn't look normal.

Nonetheless the biggest fight right now is the rematch.
288  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 100,000+ BTC moved into segwit addresses on: December 05, 2018, 03:10:44 PM
it could be said that whales trust segwit, or at least some whales do.

that is a very silly way of thinking in my opinion.
SegWit is either safe or not. there is no middle ground and people shouldn't look to others (specially whales who only care about making money) to decide.
not to mention that if there was any kind of vulnerability in SegWit it would have been already exploited! it has been 1.5 years already.

this in my opinion is someone who has been either waiting for forks to finish so that he can claim them (since many of them didn't support SegWit) or he upgraded his wallet to something that supports Bech32 recently and is taking advantage of the fact that fees are currently low. (never mind, the fees aren't low Tongue)

Well, im not claiming there is a hidden exploit lurking in the shadows ready to be exploited as Craig Wright claims, which I think it's just another way to try to suppress the price so he can pump his BSV scam. Im just referring to the game theoretical situation argued by some in which miners cartel up to steal segwit funds, which im skeptic about.

Bitcoin is all about skin in the game. The way I see it is huge amounts of coins moving into segwit means that there is trust to it being safe.
289  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 100,000+ BTC moved into segwit addresses on: December 03, 2018, 06:41:22 PM

A while ago I used to transfer my funds to paper wallets and I felt safer splitting them into many, many different addresses. After a while, I decided to split them into unequally valued paper wallets so I had a bunch of 0.01BTC papers, a bunch of 0.05BTC papers etc.. his funds might have been sent to cold/paper wallets, or who knows. Might be another rich holder securing his funds. Upon looking up the addresses I couldn't find any other results except the transactions you've also linked here.

But if he wanted privacy, he would use a mixer, and he wouldn't definitely split them into exact 254 BTC amounts. Now everyone knows he owns all these coins, he just split them into a bunch of different addresses. He needs to do a couple more passes into different amounts. Perhaps he is going to mix all of these bech32 254 BTC addresses using a mixer, since it's impossible to mix 25,000 BTC at once, it's too much, so he may dividing into smaller batches. Wow that must be such an headache to sort all these addresses out. Rich people problems I guess
290  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / 100,000+ BTC moved into segwit addresses on: December 03, 2018, 05:16:33 PM
A very interesting set of transactions happened just a couple of days ago. Someone has moved chunks of 25,000 coins into bech32 addresses. What's really weird is that he has moved it into an huge list of different addresses:

He wants to increase his privacy by splitting them into different addresses? Anyhow, it could be said that whales trust segwit, or at least some whales do.
291  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tyson Fury vs Deontay Wilder: Predictions thread on: December 03, 2018, 04:46:17 PM
Fury won. Deontay Wilder only had a couple of jabs here and there, then the KO at the end, which miraculously Fury survived. That was something out of a movie, I thought the guy wasn't going able to walk straight when he got up, but he survived and not only that, he went at it and landed good punches.

He did enough to get the decision on his favor. The first KO wasn't even legal as far as im concerned, he hit im on the back of the head. Another very controversial decision after GGG vs Canelo 2. Those judges need to be fired.
292  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin to drop to 43$ and then die on: December 03, 2018, 04:33:47 PM
Just more insanity as usual. We may be way nearer to the bottom than initially expected. These overly pessimistic predictions are classics in Bitcoin bubble and bust cycles, and they typically mark a bottom:

Those guys predicting insanely low prices, if the 0.000001% chance that we saw them, they would buy some because they are traumatized at knowing about Bitcoin for years and not buying in back then, so they would secretly buy in. Of course such low prices will never happen. Those guys are the losers of Bitcoin, they never got it right, never will, and that's a feature.
293  Economy / Speculation / Re: second half of november was definately a bloodbath for bitcoin 2k usd loss on: December 03, 2018, 04:09:21 PM
I have a symmetric triangle drawn that im following on the 4h chart and it's testing the lower end, still not tested but about to, if it breaks I would expect it to go lower but there's still hope that it manages to break to the upside. It will be decided within the next 72 hours I would say.

If I had to guess, I think we are going higher and sub $3k prices will come in 2019 after the latest panic sellers leave, right on time for big pockets to enter for Bakkt. Then Fidelity, ETF + Halving with skyrocket it within the next 2 to 3 years and people will kill themselves at not buying at current prices.
294  Economy / Speculation / Re: MATHEMATICALLY Impossible for BITCOIN to "Come Back" - Why tell ppl lies? on: December 03, 2018, 03:59:33 PM
This is insanity. I suspect this "btc-room101" guy is once again kwukduck or any other alt that is obsessed with calling bear markets.

As far as QE "not coming back", this is nonsense. Suspension of QE is only temporary. Debt is too much for it to stop, no president will want to face what it would take to reduce debt thus no more QE.

In Europe many countries will stop getting EU helicopter money soon and this will lead to many tensions, which will lead to them to enter in panic forcing more rounds of QE if they want to keep the thing going. It's a point of no return. Same for US.

Manipulation of BTC valuation against fiat is only temporary, it cannot be suppressed forever. BTC features are still desired, fundamentals never changed.
295  Economy / Speculation / Re: Walll Street dumping to buy cheap on: December 02, 2018, 04:40:46 PM
Bitcoin's on-chain value activity in the last 24 hours is $6.8 billion or 1.75 million BTC. It's crazy if you think about it, because most of this very likely consists of massive OTC trades, and this has been going on for quite a while now. While people here worry if Bitcoin is able to survive or not, smart money is filling up its pockets silently.

Institutions have for once not been the first to enter an upcoming asset class, and they are definitely out to make up for that. What's easier to get rid of shaky hands by exploiting their stupidity? If you don't know what you hold, you will sell it in an instant when things seemingly turn ugly.

Another advantage is that new money is way more likely to enter at current levels. Fresh capital is what we needed, and we get exactly that.

They crash the market on the exchanges in order to lower the price, and with futures they don't even need to touch bitcoin.

Then once they have crashed the price, they buy actual bitcoins OTC, and since it's OTC, they can massive volumes without pumping the price. The crafty bastards will keep doing this for as long as possible, that's until they dry the OTC market. When it pumps it will be massive as they will be forced to start buying on exchanges.

It is not "wall street", everything a rich company does became "wall street" in peoples minds.
Yeah, there are a lot of companies there that deal with finance and that is why wall street is so famous but there are companies outside of USA like Deutsche and HSBC that is trying to do the same thing right now.

Even smaller banks around the world is doing that, comparatively speaking there are fraction of what wall street is being poured into bitcoin in some third world country because the price is incredibly low right now and considering even a small increase of $100 in price for bitcoin could mean a lot of money for third world country if you consider they are putting up millions of dollars plus the dollar-fiat ratio is usually low in those places so it is times 10 profits there.

"Wall street" is just a vague term to refer to the TPTB, I dont necessarily mean specifically the guys that work there
296  Economy / Economics / Re: Transactional Utility. What it is and why it counts on: December 02, 2018, 04:32:59 PM
Transactional utility counts, but it seems for some reason a lot of people don't realize that holding bitcoin and not moving it is as legit of an use as transacting bitcoin around. By holding it you make use of it's exceptional features of unconfiscatable status, neutral asset, decentralized and so on. So you don't need to move it.

Bitcoin economy will grow a lot when there is a bi demand for it above fiat currencies, that situation must happen naturally. Governments force you to use their currency, Bitcoin is not forced upon people, so it must be voluntary. Sooner or later it will come as inflation hits all mayor currencies around the planet. But even without a big "bitcoin economy", it can reach reserve currency status. Reserve currencies aren't used by most people.
297  Economy / Economics / Re: US Government Working To Target More Iranian Bitcoin Users on: December 02, 2018, 03:46:31 PM
All of these privacy coins and whatnot I'm still not convinced a person couldn't still accomplish the same anonymity goals with BTC.

Japanese regulators have already asked several exchanges to stop dealing with privacy coins. I can well believe the same will happen elsewhere. I suppose atomic swaps will be the way out of that but they'll need to be fully obscured all the way from traceable wallet to traceable wallet.

Tainting and blacklisting is only now starting to warm up. I don't see how it'll ever be made to work.

And it's a bit sad privacy is thought of as some sort of novelty. In reality if crypto is to become a functioning element of an economy it's going to be a prerequisite for most people. Dunno how this circle will be squared.

I don't think it's possible to trace back coins after they have been properly mixed, it's too much of a mess to trace back and at some point it becomes impossible to prove as far as I know. You don't need fancy ring signatures like Monero or zsnarks or anything, just mix your BTC. Of course be aware that after mixing it, you may not be able to sell them for fiat. I realize this after I mixed myself some coins to learn. I don't think I can sell these coins now as they would ask for origin of fund and they are obfuscated because of the mixer... so I cant use these coins to buy a house now I think unfortunately.

The net result would be that they scare everyone about selling coins and thus the bitcoins stay within the bitcoin economy raising the price.
298  Economy / Economics / Re: Who will be the first country to own Bitcoin reserves and publicly display them? on: December 02, 2018, 03:29:56 PM
This is not going to be easy. Gold is globally acclaimed metal that was initially used as the main reserve for all countries to back up the value for their currencies. Bitcoin on the other hand, are not legal in many countries and banned in some. So no country will be interested even in hoarding up bitcoins at their coffers.

Also the second challenge is the decentralized nature of bitcoin. A country would not want any such financial asset to become so important which doesn't have a controlling authority. The world runs on the idea of strict centralization. It would take a drastic overhaul in our current economy before bitcoin or any other cryptos are eligible to be added to any country's reserve. So that's not going to happen anytime soon!

But if it ever happens, I believe Japan is going to be the first country to do that! Because they were the first country to legalize it !

Gold was banned even on the United States too at some point:

Bans don't matter, it's fundamentals that matter. As long as Bitcoin has good fundamentals (it's properties being better than any other type of money) then wherever there is a ban on Bitcoin, some other state benefits by being Bitcoin-friendly.

If a country bans BTC, some other will benefit from holders paying taxes there, investing on real state and so on with BTC, mining it, saving a lot of money by clearing transactions with BTC instead of with gold... those that ban it must consider if it's worth it.
299  Economy / Speculation / Re: What will BTC 'Mean Reversion' be in 2019? My prediction is $1400 USD on: December 01, 2018, 06:47:01 PM
My prediction calculation is $1400 USD, about the same as an ounce of GOLD. Which would be fine with me if BTC just settled in parity with GOLD.

What you say here? Have an opinion?

I see no possible 'moon shot' on the horizon, we're looking at a down market, people are cash-poor, deep in debt and shit is going down all over the world, thus there is no new source of funds to flow to BTC.

The whales are NOT done unloading, the whales are NOT idiots, HODL is for morons, billionaires ( whales ) didn't get rich by being morons.

what is the $1400 calculation based on? or the $1000 level you cited further down in your post? just a general belief that all gains from the 2017 bull run must be wiped out?

that might be a reasonable assumption, if not for bitcoin's historic trend. i try to trade with the trend, rather than against it. now that we've corrected more than 82% from the ATH, we're reaching levels where it's pretty dangerous to keep shorting.

It's just the previous MtGox peak resistance.. other people may have more complex models but that's about it, I think some are just looking to retest that peak again as the ideal entry point, however as you said we are already oversold so any further dips will be very fast and short-lived, so the opportunity to buy on these will be for the very lucky few that catch it with perfect timing, not worth it. $2900 would hit the 87% crash since the Dec 2017 peak, which means it would be the same as MtGox fall from $1300 ish to $150, but some other crashes were around 80% (see pic I posted earlier). Anything after 80% crash is high risk that it starts going up and you keep holding fiat waiting for a perfect entry point that never arrives. So if I was still on fiat, I would be buying already, and buying monthly in case it case it goes lower.
300  Economy / Speculation / Walll Street dumping to buy cheap on: December 01, 2018, 06:19:18 PM

Nice vid that explains the obvious but what most newbies don't seem to be realizing: The same people that are saying "bitcoin is dead", "bitcoin is a scam", "bitcoin is a ponzi" and whatnot, are buying when you are sleeping after you panic sell. And this doesn't count all the OTC volume we don't know. The lower the price is the higher OTC volume must be as these big entities keep buying. They KNOW they cannot kill BTC, only become bigger players than the rest, so the plan is obvious: Demoralization to trigger panic selling of everyone, then buy the cheap coins off you.
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