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421  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Finally - Khabib the Eagle vs Floyd MayWeather on: November 03, 2018, 07:24:51 PM
Does Dana White make any money out of this at all if the fight is boxing? I mean did he made a single cent from Conor vs Mayweather fight?

If he didn't get any money at all and just hoped that Conor fighting Mayweather would get more attention to UFC than it doesn't worth it at all. UFC is already quite known thing and there are really EA sports games based on it (and boxing is not quite popular anymore in gaming) and you are still trying to get exposure for your organization by letting your fighters do whatever you want? I don't think so.

If Khabib goes and fights with Mayweather in a boxing match than I seriously believe Dana should give him a punishment like get the UFC some percentage of the winnings or something. If you sign a contract with some place and than just go do other work there should be consequences.

He obviously made money from the Conor McGregor vs Floyd Mayweather fight, tons of it actually. Conor McGregor is under UFC's contract, so it was a clash of two worlds. Dana White was always there during all negotiation times. The deal was probably split but I don't know the exact %.

In fact Dana White just said that the meet with Floyd Mayweather yesterday. Dana is now saying that Khabib will not fight Floyd in a boxing match, that he is very welcomed on the octagon but he will not let Khabib go to the boxing match. Dana doesn't want to see another big name getting beaten up by a 40 year old boxer so he wants to lure Floyd into the octagon for a massive payday. I hope Floyd is smart enough to know that he has no business there. His job is to bring Khabib into the ring. However if Dana doesn't let Khabib do it, and if Dana has a billion dollar deal for Mayweather at the UFC, then Mayweather may actually go into the octagon because the guy just loves money and a billion dollar deal is a billion dollar deal.
422  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UFC 230: Cormier vs Lewis Prediction and Info Thread on: November 03, 2018, 06:49:29 PM
This fight is a fun fight but it's probably not worth it staying up until late in the morning if you are overseas to be frank. Im not that interested on it myself. As a casual fan I only know about the guys in the main card and it's such an uneven fight. The Beast has honestly no realistic chance to win against Cormier. Cormier is an olympic elite wrestler and striking wise he has shown already that he can known huge men like Bigfoot Silva and recently Stipe Mioccic a guy that resembles some sort of viking. Both smoked with a nice overhand. This guy has massive power at HW level. The Beast is sure scary but without accuracy and stamina I don't think he can beat DC. I give it 1 in 100 chances for The Beast to land that massive KO torpedo on DC's skull, other than that it's over. At least he will enjoy unlimited Popeyes.

I expect Brock Lesnar to come up on stage again to do the whole show thing and call out DC, that will be fun. Then we'll have DC vs Jon Jones which I hope DC wins because I can't stand Jones. That assuming that Jones wins Gustaffson which I doubt.
423  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Are blockchain tracking sites tracking Segwit adoption wrong? on: November 03, 2018, 06:25:09 PM
Most likely Jihan Wu's degree on psychology at play here, by spreading his hashrate around and mining segwit blocks in some instances and don't in others, to trick people like franky1 into thinking his business is decentralized and he isn't calling all the shots. Naive in my opinion, that guys strikes as a classic control freak.

Too bad his shenanigans have ended up in a tricky situation as he finds himself holding massive amounts of bcash. Let's see how he gets out of this one.
424  Economy / Economics / Re: Impact of Italy's crisis on the Bitcoin price? on: November 02, 2018, 04:28:11 PM
Italy's economy is orders of magnitudes bigger than Greece, but I somehow do believe that everything will be done to not let that country implode. It would drag the whole EU and likely even the world with it to some degree.

Don't forget Italy imploding will also give Deutsche bank the final push it needs to implode, and with how they have nested themselves in so many corners of the world, it's impossible that they won't trigger a major global crisis.

All the money that went to Greece is gone for ever. The EU tries to convince average joes that every penny will be paid back, but every person with common sense knows that it is nonsense. The same applies to Italy. It's an endless put.

The European central bank will have to save Italy from bankrupcy,by printing billions of euro and buying the Italian government debt.I really doubt that this impact the bitcoin price,the italians just won't start buying bitcoins like crazy.The price of the euro will go down and most of the people will start buying gold,USD or real estate.

It doesn't need to be the italians that start buying Bitcoin. A big Euro crisis will quickly spread across the globe with overall market uncertainty, and Bitcoin is a global phenomenon, so there will be endless reasons to buy and hold some for a ton of people out there. That is what's so cool about Bitcoin, it's global and neutral. Gold is stuck where it is, you can't really move it around as they will stop it on borders. Real state is obviously stuck where it is physically, so as an italian I wouldn't be looking forward to buying real state. I think Bitcoin will be an awesome buy an hold, specially after Bakkt starts allowing a reasonably safe way to buy and hold for the technologically incompetent.
425  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is "speculation leaving the market"? What does low BTC volatility really mean? on: November 02, 2018, 03:34:37 AM
The market volume data gathered from exchanges is misleading as we cannot ever know what's going on behind the curtain (that's OTC trading). I wonder how volatility % would be if we knew all the trading going out outside of our reach.

I don't doubt for a second OTC volume has only been going up in the past few years. I know there were some recent news of a 144k buy which then was supposedly debunked, however this doesn't mean huge buy orders aren't happening OTC, and all of that data we cannot track so the analysis is always incomplete.

Eventually OTC will dry and whales will be forced to enter exchanges, but until then we just can guess.
426  Economy / Economics / Re: Impact of Italy's crisis on the Bitcoin price? on: November 02, 2018, 03:04:54 AM
Update from a couple hours ago:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1039533/EU-News-Italy-Brussles-budget-clash-Matteo-Salvini-GDP-deficit-proposal-Eurozone-latest

Salvini doesn't seem to be bluffing so far, indeed he is doubling down and calling for massive protests in 8th of december. He said there's no turning back "we will never be enslaved again". He is a pretty intense guy. Very interested to see the outcome of this. He knows Italy is a heavyweight in Europe, and after Brexit his representation is even bigger. I don't think this is Syriza 2. Italy is in a position if primary surplus (minus the EU debt, they are on good standing). An interesting clash to watch closely. Big moves in EU for the next year.
427  Economy / Speculation / Re: Fake dump on: November 02, 2018, 02:30:48 AM
What's the difference between fake and genuine? When you didn't expect it or there doesn't seem to be a reason, then it's fake? And when it reached your predictions and had all the reasons, it's real?
It seems that some people don't think there are actual sellers around current levels because of how it is believed to be "very low". In that sense, the dumps have to be related to manipulation, because what 'normal' person sells right now?  Cheesy

The reality is that there are enough longer term hodlers out here with sub $1000 coins looking at $6000 as a pretty decent exit point in case they need the funds. It's a free market in the end, so people can do whatever they want.

If the crypto market is indeed ruled by manipulation as people believe it is, can we still call it manipulation if most participants apply the same type of trading strategies? It evens out the playing field in my book.

Indeed, there's a lot of sub $1000 hodlers out there, however the lowest you go the entry points, the higher chances that they will not sell because the lowest the entry point, the highest IQ and therefore understanding of what money is, concepts like hard money, understanding of the risk of holding ponzi fiat scheme currencies contrary to bitcoin, understanding of up and coming bond market collapse and so on. So it's mostly all the crypto kids of class of 2017 that panic sell. Holders before MtGox collapse have been through hell and back and will not find flaws on the fundamentals to sell. Also usually they most likely were very well off before Bitcoin/already sold enough to not need to reduce their BTC position.
428  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin 2013 vs bitcoin 2017 on: November 02, 2018, 02:13:56 AM
The fundamentals in 2013 were insanely different and more pessimistic compared to 2018.

2013 was still a big mess exchanges wise. If you think it's bad now, well in 2013 it was still amateur hour big time, nowadays things are getting more profesional even tho there's still big question marks out there with tether and whatnot, but the main point is there isn't a big single point of failure exchanges wise like in the Gox days.

Also the scaling drama is over. Now we've got LN already live and being improved, we have Schnorr sigs on the pipeline and other cool stuff.

We have institutional money about to come in next month with Bakkt... in 2014 we had nothing to be honest, just the hardcore holders and smart people that knew the fundamentals of bitcoin make it a winner no matter what the ponzi fiat scheme that is being priced in is valued at.

Bitcoin have a four-year cycle. We are in the worse year of the new cycle. Its a bear year, followed bwy a year of recovery, then the year of the halvening, and then the bull year.

that only happened once, from 2014-2017. you make it sound like it's an established pattern. i'd certainly say people should temper bullish expectations, but i also think it's naive to assume things will play out exactly like the 2013 bubble.

We will probably only see $6k for a 2019 high, 2020 probably $10k for a high, and 2021 well past $100k.

you got a chart to support that theory?

This one I like:



Big gap on that channel.. adjust accordingly.

Looks pretty believable to me - the top line is the top of the next peak and the bottom line is the price after the crash. Something approximating this chart needs to happen for bitcoin's survival in my opinion. It's either going to continue much higher price floors every 4 years or it's going to totally collapse.

We got way ahead of the upper channel during the 2013 Gox peak, I don't know the % but definitely by a good amount. $20k is not so out of hand, we didn't go that out of the channel. So I think something similar to the opposite way could happen (going below the channel by a pretty big amount then eventually rebounding). What I mean is, it wouldn't be the end of the world re-testing $1200 again. Of course most people don't want that, but as a worst case scenario im mentally ready for that, it would just mean Bitcoin gets insanely undervalued again to anyone with 2 functional brain cells.

Unfortunately for the people like me that think 5 to 10 years into the future and just want to gather as much as possible for when it goes 6+ figures (and at that point you will not need to sell.. just buy anything you want with your coins), I doubt we'll get to enjoy such low prices again, there's too much bull pressure, at least the OTC market is on fire accumulating.
429  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin 2013 vs bitcoin 2017 on: November 01, 2018, 02:25:29 AM
The fundamentals in 2013 were insanely different and more pessimistic compared to 2018.

2013 was still a big mess exchanges wise. If you think it's bad now, well in 2013 it was still amateur hour big time, nowadays things are getting more profesional even tho there's still big question marks out there with tether and whatnot, but the main point is there isn't a big single point of failure exchanges wise like in the Gox days.

Also the scaling drama is over. Now we've got LN already live and being improved, we have Schnorr sigs on the pipeline and other cool stuff.

We have institutional money about to come in next month with Bakkt... in 2014 we had nothing to be honest, just the hardcore holders and smart people that knew the fundamentals of bitcoin make it a winner no matter what the ponzi fiat scheme that is being priced in is valued at.

Bitcoin have a four-year cycle. We are in the worse year of the new cycle. Its a bear year, followed bwy a year of recovery, then the year of the halvening, and then the bull year.

that only happened once, from 2014-2017. you make it sound like it's an established pattern. i'd certainly say people should temper bullish expectations, but i also think it's naive to assume things will play out exactly like the 2013 bubble.

We will probably only see $6k for a 2019 high, 2020 probably $10k for a high, and 2021 well past $100k.

you got a chart to support that theory?

This one I like:



Big gap on that channel.. adjust accordingly.
430  Other / Meta / Re: Recover my hero account on: November 01, 2018, 02:17:03 AM
Bump for visibility.
It's been a long time since I visited this site.

Unfortnately there's other Hero members that have been up to a year already, some people more than that, after delivering all the required cryptographic proof. Insane indeed, but there are good news: theymos is working on some sort of automated system for account recovery. My advice is not bother until this system is in place, otherwise you will just frustrate yourself waiting for nothing. We can only hope that the automated system works and comes soon enough (apparently it should be coming sometime next year).

This should have been solved a long time ago, it didn't, so the result is a massive backlog of people waiting. It is what it is, what can we do?
431  Other / Meta / Re: HOW TO CONTACT WITH THEYMOS OR CYRUS? on: October 31, 2018, 08:48:23 PM
I've been hearing about this supposed automatic recovery account system for a while now, still no further news that I know of.

Theymos has been making some good moves with the forum, the latest addition being the custom passcode to bypass the catpcha, that was awesome. However account recovery should be #1 in priority list next.

I've been considering making a list with the most flagrant cases of people stuck in permaqueue to recover their accounts, I may do it if I find some free time.

Theymos has stated that it will hopefully be ready by the end of the year (hopefully being the keyword here). Maybe it will and maybe it won't but we can only wait until then to find out. I agree account restoration should be a priority and someone should have been given access to restore them in the meantime or at least until the tool is ready. I'm still not sure on how users who can't sign a message or can sign one but from an alt coin address will get their's back so that's still going to require some manual intervention which will need to be dealt with.

I don't think they will be able to recover their accounts without being able to sign a bitcoin address. As far as altcoin goes... if it's a big established altcoin with a blockchain that is reasonable to assume it hasn't been compromised (like litecoin) it could do, but I wouldn't trust one of these obscure altcoins as proof.

During registration there should be a warning sign that says you should create a bitcoin address for verification purposes may you need it in the future, otherwise people will not realize it is even a thing.
432  Other / Meta / Re: HOW TO CONTACT WITH THEYMOS OR CYRUS? on: October 31, 2018, 03:00:42 AM
BUMP MY MAN !!!

You can post it here or PM me it if you wish for it to remain private.

It takes too long because neither theymos or cyrus have the time to do them. An automated recovery system is apparently in the works but until that happens or theymos delegates this workload to someone else then people just aren't going to be getting their accounts back any time soon.

Do you have any more info regarding this automated recovery system ? A thread maybe ? I'd really love to have something to hold onto while I wait for a miracle.

My 2014 account has been hacked by a Theymos impersonator and is now being used to promote some shitty ICO, although in my case I might be able to buy it back from the hacker.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4429012.msg39527226#msg39527226

I've been hearing about this supposed automatic recovery account system for a while now, still no further news that I know of.

Theymos has been making some good moves with the forum, the latest addition being the custom passcode to bypass the catpcha, that was awesome. However account recovery should be #1 in priority list next.

I've been considering making a list with the most flagrant cases of people stuck in permaqueue to recover their accounts, I may do it if I find some free time.
433  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Happy 10th birthday to Bitcoin! on: October 31, 2018, 02:48:37 AM
Yeah I just saw the News on the forum above:

Quote
News: BTC "What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party.": Satoshi's original Bitcoin whitepaper is 10 years old today! BTC

At first I thought it was another alarm of another bug/exploit and had a small hearth attack since the news section doesn't change much but luckily it was good news.

What can I tell you? I wish I was mining bitcoin 10 years ago. I first saw it in around 2012 perhaps in Slashdot and ignored it, biggest mistake ever. On the bright side, Bitcoin is still 8 years away from being an adult, we are still early adopters.
434  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: What happens when the last bitcoin has been mined? [Year 2140] on: October 31, 2018, 02:42:42 AM
There are some people that question the idea that mining fees will be enough to keep the mining incentives system intact and argue that without the mining reward there will be problems. I don't really see how... as long as there's the opportunity to make money mining bitcoin, there will be people doing it. The "if you aren't doing it someone else will find profit" scheme still applies with or without mining reward as difficulty is adjusted according, and by 2140 BTC should be interplanetary currency anyway, it will be as desired as ever.
435  Economy / Speculation / Re: Such Stability! on: October 30, 2018, 03:22:03 AM
Im not surprised by the latest 200 buck drop. Seems like the usual ups and downs we've had going for a while on this price range. Business as usual you could say. The fact that I still saw a lot of people panicking means there's a lot of noobs that still need to sell, hopefully these dips serve a purpose to get rid of all the remaining weak hands.

Call me when we go below $5k, until then it's just the same routine. Just don't be the guy shorting the bottom of the dip instead of buying it (like Tone Vays).
436  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Eduroam blocks tor, vpns and bitcoin core! on: October 30, 2018, 02:58:52 AM
Eduroam is a pain in the ass it seems. There was some other dudes talking about how not even changing mac address helps. There must be some words that trigger a ban, apparently "bitcoin mining" does it. Perhaps they've had problems with people infecting machines with bitcoin miners and bitcoind as a whole is banned, a lot of malware tools detect bitcoin core as a thread.

I wouldn't bother running a node in there. Not worth running a node in a setup which you don't control 100%. Just use Electrum from now may you need to transact and run a node once you are done with university. After you are authenticated in Eduroam the institution monitors all traffic that goes through it so there's no point if they've decided to not let people use network resources for bitcoin nodes.

I don't see why you can't find a premium VPN service which is not banned there tho (all the of the free ones will be banned).
437  Economy / Speculation / Re: All-Time-High will happen again after Bitcoin Halving on 2020? on: October 30, 2018, 02:09:28 AM
~
To me, it's more important to observe when supply is being absorbed by the market, i.e. demand is overtaking supply, than to know the reasoning behind it.

actually i'd say it is also important to know the reason behind every move, whether it is a rise or a drop if you want to have a better understanding of the market and also if you want to speculate it better.

for instance if the reason for the rise is halving hype[1] then you can be sure that that kind of rise is not going to last long and it will fall down[2].

How would you ever know the reason for the rise is halving hype? That's impossible. You don't actually know any of that, and your "understanding of the market" may be completely false. That's the point: we can study price and volume to make conclusions about underlying supply and demand. We logically cannot make conclusions about why demand might be increasing.

There could be endless reasons why anyone is buying BTC: general long term investment, strong fundamentals, increasing adoption, economic hedging, cross-border transactions, avoiding censorship, "halving hype" etc. It would be ridiculous to assume at any point that everyone is buying because of the halving. There's literally no evidence for that. It's empty speculation.

The halving is on the back of everyone's mind when they buy bitcoin and it influences their decision one way or another.

Someone that needs bitcoin for a specific task like moving their wealth from A to B with the intention of selling once they have arrived to B, before selling, they may look if the halving is around the corner, and if it's near they may decide to hold some of it. "Hell, maybe it pumps...". Just a practical example. My point is that no matter what the halving is a constant bullish pressure.

Another stat to consider is when the market bottomed relative to the next halving, and it's around a year apart. So you could say that when bitcoin has reached a ridiculously low price after a bubble and the halving is a year away, people that is on fence about buying start getting nervous and start buying, then the rest realize we already bottomed and the next rally begins. Buyish news (like say, Bakkt) just put fuel in the rocket to accelerate things.
438  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will die at 2027 on: October 28, 2018, 01:50:16 AM
Hey, guys. This year I became seriously interested in quantum computers. I came across here a study of Australian and Singaporean scientists about the security of Bitcoin: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.10377v1.pdf There are a lot of figures and formulas in the report, I haven't understood everything, but the main idea I've caught is that if Bitcoin doesn't implement post-quantum algorithms, it won't survive until 2027.

I'm pretty sure that's the plan: to implement post-quantum algorithms when the threat actually becomes real. I doubt most people familiar with the issue thinks elliptic curve signatures are built to last forever. Like any other existential protocol issue, the bug would be addressed and if necessary, a rollback might be performed. It's not ideal, but we also have some precedent for issues like this. I don't see it being the "death" of Bitcoin at all.

In fact, it's possible to implement a simple soft fork change to Lamport one-time signatures which could avert most of the damage.

I wonder how the community would react to something fatal like ECDSA begin cracked. I think even the there would be drama to reach to some sort of agreement, specially if a hard fork is involved to fix the situation, but I guess quickly one of the proposed solutions would win out of necessity because when money is on the line there is not much time to fuck around.

The ones that disagree will probably fork bcash style into their own altcoin which they will call bitcoin. Probably some extra things will be proposed on the hardfork like changes in hashing algo and so on. I would be an huge even, I would like to see how miners react to that.
439  Economy / Speculation / Re: All-Time-High will happen again after Bitcoin Halving on 2020? on: October 28, 2018, 01:25:59 AM
What's your insights? Is it possible?

- First Bitcoin halving happened in November 28, 2012
- Price spike to over $1k USD a year after around December 2013

- Second Bitcoin halving happened in July 9, 2016
- Price spike to over $19k USD around December 2017

-Third Bitcoin halving is expected to happen around May 2020
- New ATH on Q4 2021 to January 2022?

With a sample size of 2, we can't really say a pattern exists. In both cases, the halvings and bubbles were so far apart that I prefer to view them as unrelated events.

It really all depends on market demand. When the subsidy halves, not only does it take time for decreased miner supply to set in, but the supply is still inflationary. Demand needs to continue growing to push price higher.

It's really impossible to predict a growth curve for demand that would help us determine the time cycle over which mining subsidy is absorbed by the market, because Bitcoin isn't characterized by inelastic demand. It's not like petrol or water or cigarettes; the demand is unpredictable.

I think there is a pattern if you look deeper. It just kicks in with a lot of delay, but the fact that the supply is shrinking is a big psychological factor ingrained in all market participants that are considering getting in. They look at the price, see not much of a thing going on and decide to keep waiting for a perfect entry point.

At some point it starts going up, potential buyers start getting nervous and realize they should have made a move a long time ago. FOMO kicks in.

It could also happen the opposite way in the future, that is: market participants try to out-move each other and the FOMO happens up to months before the actual halving and the halving could ironically become a sell the news event.

We don't have enough halvings to look at for data, but what's clear is, decrease in inflation is bullish assuming demand is there and im sure it is.

440  Economy / Speculation / Re: How will the next big recession affect the BTC price? on: October 28, 2018, 01:11:32 AM
Im optimist for bitcoin performing well on the next 2008 chapter. It is a global asset that never sleeps, and you can move it across borders seamlessly may your country go full Cyprus on your wealth.

It depends though. Money on the financial market moves to the easiest alternative within the same legal platforms, which means that Gold will be the first to actually benefit. It's crazy liquid, easy to buy into, is globally respected and accepted as safe haven asset, etc.

In this case a Bitcoin tied ETF would actually come in handy for legacy parties, because the switch is super easy to make, and they don't have to worry about storage and whatnot, which is a pain in the bum for them. If even a slight percentage of the money usually flowing into Gold will enter Bitcoin (could be for diversification purposes), you can be sure that we'll be subject to one of the wildest Bitcoin rides ever.

The only downside of that is once the market calms down again and actually shows signs of recovery, most of the safe haven money will flow out of Bitcoin again, just like how it flows out of Gold.

Bitcoin didn't exist in 2008 so we don't know how it would perform on such an scenario. My theory is that it's way better than gold for most people with a decent amount of technical competence to get it done. Remember that Executive Order 6102 happened and it could come back at any time.

If you think that gold/Bitcoin will lose value "after the crisis is over" then I assume you think these cyclical crisis in the fiat world can be happening infinitely. The big thesis is that hard money always wins long term, so the risk is being outside of gold/Bitcoin and what happens in between is a mirage. Of course, for how long can this mirage persist in time? who knows. Perhaps the US can keep kicking the can down the road for longer than we all can expect. How many trillions of unplayable debt does it take? we'll have to wait and find out. As with everything in life, diversify accordingly, but at this point, I think it's clear that owning some gold/Bitcoin at all times poses lower risk than selling "when the economy recovers".
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