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441  Economy / Speculation / Re: How will the next big recession affect the BTC price? on: October 27, 2018, 12:48:08 AM


 If we put on a scale, the much money in fact that can leave the bitcoin market comparing with what can enter is simply absurd the difference.

Bitcoin is insanely small. As long as Jeff Bezos net worth is valued higher than the entire Bitcoin marketcap, it should be really obvious how tiny BTC is, and therefore how much upside it has. But a lot of people in this field want x1000 overnight, this is why so many shitcoins keep being bought by noobs and gamblers.

In most countries, it is very difficult for an average person to buy an asset and keep it away from the banking system. With what asset could I do this? Maybe with the gold. But not every country has a retail market that can provide that. Many people buy jewelry, objects of art and real estate for this purpose. We are in a new generation that does not care so much about investing in real estate. We use less and less jewelry. The object of value that most people carry is a cell phone, which loses value in a year. And investing in art is still for very rich people.

I've had dreams (or may I say, nightmares at this point) of governments going executive order 6102 on steroids. Im talking about police going into your house with radars, inspecting your backyard and looking for buried metals, cracking safe locks and whatnot. Not only they will demand gold to be deposited on their institutions, they will look for it, and they will look try really hard at ruining people's lives. They will stop people holding gold on any border.

On that moment it will become obvious for goldbugs in denial about bitcoin, why being an intangible digital asset was always a positive, for this revelation will be too late for them. Everyone else will be buying as much BTC as possible.
442  Economy / Speculation / Re: Are fractional reserves inevitable with BTC or will it shrug it off? on: October 27, 2018, 12:28:43 AM
All that matters is that it cannot be done in bitcoin. The fact that it can be done in altcoins just makes bitcoin's value even more obvious.

Some have argued that it could be done in bitcoin too. I don't really understand the fears of the legacy banking gangsters going into bitcoin and trying to play the same game again. If they try they will just burn their fingers in the process.

I still haven't heard a reasonable explanation to run fractional reserve banking on top of a decentralized, immutable asset limited in amount. Coins are limited to 21 million no matter what, this is what guarantees attempts at fractional reserve will only be short lived Maddoff schemes which will collapse for these trying to get away with it.
443  Economy / Speculation / Re: All-Time-High will happen again after Bitcoin Halving on 2020? on: October 27, 2018, 12:20:50 AM
While definitely very possible, not because it happened it the past it doesn't automatically it will be the same in the future. What we're going to need is still, more demand. We could be already at 21 million BTC but if there's not that much demand, it's unlikely to have significant price rises.

EDIT: Saw this on r/cryptocurrency

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/9rk6ph/alltimehigh_will_happen_again_after_bitcoin/

I hope you're the poster on r/cryptocurrency. If not..



I would be surprised if the price doesn't go up big time as it always typically does a couple of months after the halving.

I don't believe the demand for the only decentralized, unconfiscable, immutable asset in the world isn't on a constant growing demand. The USD valuation is incredibly misleading because it's insanely manipulated. We can't really measure the demand when the ponzi fiat scheme still allows them to print money and manipulate prices with phantom futures derivatives and whatnot. But long term we know demand + supply limited in amount will make the price go up. I would be surprised to see 6 $figures a couple of months after the halving.
444  Economy / Speculation / Re: BAKKT: Road to $100,000+ starts in november? on: October 26, 2018, 11:54:56 PM
Road to 100k+ never starts. Have you calculate how much the marketcap would be if it becomes 100k+ ?

Why do you think the market cap matters? When people consider the price of BTC, you think they're calculating the market cap and judging how reasonable it is?

I've been around since 2013 and I've never once thought about the market cap before.

Bakkt needs to buy bitcoin to settle the contracts, so this is not phantom derivative bullshit like CBOE futures.

It's still a derivative, so it's still possible for its market to diverge from spot. But yeah, unlike cash-settlement, it's a real avenue for investors to accumulate BTC and a real avenue for sellers to liquidate BTC. It could therefore potentially lead spot prices if the volume and liquidity grow large enough.

For me it's very simple: it's either bitcoin-settled or not. That's as good as it gets. And we want it to be regulated and audited. With fiat involved you want regulation and so on, it's how it goes.

The rest of exchanges specially those that deliver big leveraged position, you also really don't know if they have the btc and fiat deposits ready to not fail on the guy on the other end when he wants to withdraw. Bakkt is as serious as it gets thus far in this regard. I think the platform could lead price discovery in the field.
445  Economy / Speculation / Re: BAKKT: Road to $100,000+ starts in november? on: October 26, 2018, 12:03:11 AM
Road to 100k+ never starts. Have you calculate how much the marketcap would be if it becomes 100k+ ? It would be both unlikely to pass that and also quite impossible to achieve with the number of usage bitcoin has and the number of people involved in it.

Dollar is involved every where in the world, basically the closest thing we have in the world to a global currency yet if you look at the american stock markets it is still around the marketcap of bitcoin if it hits 100k, you think the american stock markets combined could be same marketcap as bitcoin?

That is very max the limit we can ever hope to achieve and definitely not the higher. Of course this doesn't take away from the fact that bitcoin definitely will go up when bakkt really gets up and going and starts doing what they have been trying to get approved of.

Bitcoin doesn't need to be as used as the dollar when it comes to transaction volume for it to reach $100k. And remember that holding bitcoin is using it even if you don't transact with it.

Price is a function of supply and demand, that's all. As long as there's demand for what bitcoin offers, the price will go up. Bakkt allows for a ton of pockets to get involved within the market. Bakkt needs to buy bitcoin to settle the contracts, so this is not phantom derivative bullshit like CBOE futures.

A nice pic for context:



446  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bakkt launching on Dec12, is it will start a bull run? on: October 25, 2018, 11:32:26 PM
If it's bitcoin-settled then the price must go up. I have lost track of what Bakkt will actually deliver at least on the initial phases. From what I've heard the platform will deliver bitcoin-settled contracts, this means that his is not some phantom derivatives bullshit in which no bitcoins are being traded, so it must have an impact on the market one way or another.

We'll have to wait and see. Any instant changes on the market will just be speculation on the news unless some big players have moves already planned for launch day but someone needs to confirm that actual BTC is used to settle contracts.
Yeah, it is going to be bitcoin settled and that is what makes it different from other futures contract. Nonetheless, the impact it would really have on the market generally is something I am still trying to wrap my head around and like you said, I guess we will just have to wait and see.

Nonetheless, we have always known the practices of the Wall street and some of their shenanigans, so in this case, I really would not want to be so optimistic with whatever comes out with Bakkt, until I get to see it happen. Bull run though is something I hardly believe will be happening anytime soon, with or without Bakkt.

Then it will go up pretty much guaranteed. The demand is already there, there's a lot of people that haven't invested yet because they are computer illiterates. There's a ton of boomers out there that simply aren't cut to be custodians of their own bitcoins, and this could finally be what helps them to get that 1% diversification into BTC.

At some point not owning BTC will pose a bigger risk than owning BTC, once this is widely understood FOMO will kick in and things like Bakkt will help everyone that doesn't know how to deal with computers to get themselves exposed to the market. We all know ideally everyone should learn how to deal with their own coins but that will never happen, so the more ways to get people on board the better. Im not bothered by it as long as contracts are bitcoin-settled.
447  Economy / Speculation / Re: Charlie Lee Bitcoin Price Prediction !!! on: October 25, 2018, 11:12:28 PM
I dont trust Charlie Lee since he sold all his litecoins. Some people said he had inside information about the bear market coming, so he shorted all his LTC. 
Not that kind of insider information. I'm sure he has insider information concerning Litecoin development, which probably didn't look bright enough for him to stick with his massive stake in that coin.

Let's be honest here, what is Litecoin's purpose in this industry? Its main purpose is being Bitcoin's testbed, maybe to some extent offer fast and cheap on-chain transactions, but that's all there is to name up.

I'm sure that he allocated a part of his freshly obtained fiat wealth to buy Bitcoin at bottom levels. I like how he's not letting his bias towards his own project work against him. I respect his move to get rid of Litecoin.

Litecoiners can complain all day, but they should accept that Litecoin hasn't much to differentiate itself with in an industry with thousands of similar coins......



Well being Bitcoin's testbed is already a way better usecase than 99% of altcoins out there. It has a decent amount of liquidity and will always have the "the original altcoin" distinction honorary badge if that counts (even if technically there was I think an altcoin before Litecoin but never went anywhere, I forgot the name right now).

I actually think LTC can pump again after the next halving which is coming may 2019. Of course im not gambling a single satoshi on it.

As far as Charlie Lee going, he did the right thing I guess. He made a ton of money and people can no longer claim he has a conflict of interest.

I wonder if he opened shorts before dumping tho. That could be insider trading? he was a market maker definitely.
448  Economy / Speculation / Re: guess the price before 12december BAKKT ([btc]GAME[btc]) on: October 25, 2018, 11:03:30 PM
cmon guys... be more optimistic, I want to see price spike like last year Cheesy
so, my guess the ATH will be somewhere near $9,627 then price drop again back to ~$7k Tongue

This is a nice way to get a test of people's sentiment on the price, because when there's money on the line people will try to be as realistic and accurate as possible.

Perhaps we've bottomed and people is overly pessimistic similar to how a lot of people were expecting sub $100 prices after the 2013 bubble burst.

Btw in case I win somehow, please PM otherwise I may forget about this.
449  Economy / Speculation / Re: guess the price before 12december BAKKT ([btc]GAME[btc]) on: October 25, 2018, 12:13:07 AM
Im in. I think Bakkt will allow for improved priced discovery as it is way better regulated than all these other exchanges which are a joke and nobody knows where their fiat accounts are, and contracts are supposedly backed by the underlying.

I will give it a $8,983 because why not. Price rises should start before the news hit. FOMO follows after.
450  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bakkt launching on Dec12, is it will start a bull run? on: October 25, 2018, 12:03:51 AM
Bakkt could be audited if in doubt of they owning the required collateral amounts of bitcoin, they could show their wallets and cryptographically sign them. With gold you are supposed to believe the amount is there somewhere, so it being physical is actually more troublesome. It's not on their incentive to get caught faking something that can easily be proven, you either own the coins or you don't.

I think people worry too much about these things. What are they going to do, sell a bunch of bitcoin they don't have and fail on the delivery on someone else? who cares, 21 million coin limit is always there. Naked shorting doesn't have an impact on bitcoin long term.
451  Economy / Speculation / Re: How will the next big recession affect the BTC price? on: October 24, 2018, 11:38:12 PM
Im optimist for bitcoin performing well on the next 2008 chapter. It is a global asset that never sleeps, and you can move it across borders seamlessly may your country go full Cyprus on your wealth.

Literally no other asset has these 2 features. Everything else is tied to something non-neutral (stocks and co are tied to the performance of certain countries, property is stuck where it is, gold will be confiscated on every border...). Of course, none of the altcoins cut it, they have no liquidity and are unsafe from a technical pov.
There is not much else out there, if you think there is then let me know.

Im already worried at EU. I think a lot of people are sleeping on the up and coming clusterfuck in Italy. This is my favorite video this week thus far: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erSSC85CME4

Italy isn't Greece. If Salvini is not bluffing then an huge crisis will begin in EU and this will spread across the world. I would be scared to have my money anywhere but in BTC these days. Cyprus on steroids doesn't sound good.

452  Economy / Economics / Impact of Italy's crisis on the Bitcoin price? on: October 24, 2018, 05:55:33 PM
With Italy making a big statement to not follow with the imposed European Union budget (see this crazy sequence: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erSSC85CME4 ), things are starting to get serious. Salvini may be nuts enough to not be bluffing.

Are we going to see the start of the biggest EU crisis yet? Italy is no Greece, it is too big, if the same scenario happens (this time with the far right instead of far left but same result) are we going to see an impact on the Bitcoin price?

If Italy goes Greece the consequences will be felt all over the world IMO.
453  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic crash in 2019! on: October 24, 2018, 03:13:40 PM
I know the Dad you're talking about is Alex Jones on InfoWar LOL.

The good news is there are millions of people saying the same thing over the years. Still, the central banks have always had powerful machines to print more banknotes (sarcasm). ZeroHedge is the site where the economic crash propaganda is published daily.
We will always some economic troubles like with Greece or Venezuela, but a worldwide crash has a lot of less chance to happen.

I am not planning to change anything, money comes and go, and I apply the diversity rule

2008 was a worldwide crash and it was very real. Everything is cyclical and what made 2008 happen has not been corrected, we got out of there basically due massive quantitative easing. So we are just kicking the can down the road really. It's going to the ugly when 2008 part 2 happens, im pretty scared to have money in the bank, I think within the next 5 years something will happen.

Italy is out of hand and challenging the European Union, check the news. Some dude literally used his shoe to crush the papers of the EU budgets for Italy. Crisis is coming and Italy is no Greece. If Italy goes Greece then Spain and Portugal will follow and the EU will  have a massive crisis which will have an impact on the rest of the world.
454  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Why didn't satoshi use PoW for something else? on: October 24, 2018, 03:01:50 PM
There are many critics of Bitcoin that argue how "Bitcoin's PoW wastes too much energy".
What exactly do they mean by wastage of energy? Energy is wasted only when nothing is gained from them. Generated Energy from Solar, Wind, Water and other renewable means is used in the form of providing entertainment and to fulfill our basic needs. You pay for the electricity you use and it is being used in some form or the other. Renewable resources are always replaced and would never likely end. On an average, it would cost around $3000 - $5000 to mine one bitcoin. If the miner sell them, they would get a profit of around 1.5x - 2x they have spent in the form of electricity and at the current trading price of 1 Btc.

The energy consumed by the ASIC's are used for generating money and for securing the decentralized payment system all around the world. Miners doesn't waste the energy rather they use these energy to generate money. Wasting is something which is used carelessly or for no purpose to anyone.

When mining is being done, the ASIC's generate a lot of heat. This heat energy can be re-used and can be converted into an energy. Intense Heat Generated form these ASIC's can be used for many practical applications. I have even read somewhere in the past that, Denmark and Germany paid it's citizens to use their electricity as they were high on renewable electricity production.

Quote
Why didn't satoshi use PoS or other energy efficient mining algorithms?
PoS and other energy efficient mining process apart from PoW are created to reduce the usage of energy in the process of mining the blocks. This would make the miners take little to no efforts in mining apart from staking coins. Mining a #1000 block and #100000 block will literally have the same difficulty. Some algorithms similar to PoS will favour old miners and whales rather than a miner having the potential and equipment to mine the block. This also makes some to stop trading and use their coins for staking to earn profits.

Try to explain someone like Warren Buffet, Roubini or all these guys how the massive ASIC hashrate isn't a big waste. They simply cannot fathom that it's part of what makes Bitcoin valuable (the fact that is backed by all that power which makes it the safest decentralized network in earth)

A lot of people will simply never get it, they are too old I guess.

Im not sure about transforming the heat generated by the ASICs into something else. I have not seen anything done in this field other than anecdotal stuff like this:

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/9k8ykp/heating-water-with-bitcoin-mining-asic-reddit
455  Economy / Speculation / Re: What's your plan for the next bull-bear cycle? on: October 24, 2018, 12:37:15 AM
it really depends on the altcoin market cycle and how it interplays with bitcoin's next bull cycle.

when money is flowing into altcoins, that's where i'll be. spreading risk across promising low-caps, i'll be looking for a few 10x-100x moves and rolling the gains back into bitcoin.

when money is flowing into bitcoin, 5x-10x longs all day. nothing like finding long entries on the 1min-5min charts during bubble times.

when things get frothy enough, i'll start scaling out of bitcoin (hopefully with enough to retire comfortably) over the course of a 2-3 weeks. $100k sounds really low. i'm expecting minimum $250k, and probably much higher based on past cycles.

Which altcoins would you really risk it at the end of the day? It's an huge risk. Im a big maximalist myself but I also think about risking a small % of BTC trying to hit one of these x10-100x home runs, but at this point in the altcoin market it feels like playing the casino/lottery.

LTC is out of the picture for me. Now that LN and segwit is on, I don't see the attractive anymore, unless fees start getting ridiculous again before LN is widely used.

XMR remains a good niche for the anonymous coin thing I guess, a lot of people think that so it may be a good idea to hold some of these.

ETH is a mess but it has insane levels of marketing, on the global conscience of market participants I feel like ETH will continue being a pretty big project until it has a fatal technical failure.. perhaps during the up and coming hardfork clusterfuck to PoS.

The rest of the coins are just Las Vegas unless someone has found some rough diamonds that im not aware, but I just see altcoin bagholders pumping their bags everywhere.
456  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bakkt launching on Dec12, is it will start a bull run? on: October 24, 2018, 12:09:47 AM
If it's bitcoin-settled then the price must go up. I have lost track of what Bakkt will actually deliver at least on the initial phases. From what I've heard the platform will deliver bitcoin-settled contracts, this means that his is not some phantom derivatives bullshit in which no bitcoins are being traded, so it must have an impact on the market one way or another.

We'll have to wait and see. Any instant changes on the market will just be speculation on the news unless some big players have moves already planned for launch day but someone needs to confirm that actual BTC is used to settle contracts.
457  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Has Hit the Bottom: Why it is Unlikely to Fall Below $6,000 on: October 23, 2018, 11:54:21 PM

Yes i have been involved in this volatile crypto market from long time but i have never seen this kind of stability ever in the past and i feel this should be the upselling point for the bitcoin because the pump or dump it's very less in the value. I hope this will take bitcoin to the next level.

I'm pretty sure that we have seen this bearish trend and somewhat stable price in the past. As far as bitcoin miners not allowing the price to fall below $6000 because its not profitable, I'm not sure about that though, it has been a theory for the last couple of months.

The questions is, if miners are moving out of bitcoin, where are they shifting their hardware to? Bitcoin Cash? It doesn't makes sense at all as the money is still in Bitcoin market.

For ETF though, it might or might not break the $6000 in either way, but just like you guys, I'm tired of hearing about the news though, so let's just wait to see the actual impact specially the Van Eck/Solid X proposal.

Indeed hashrate is not going anywhere, in fact it just keeps going higher:

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#log

We hit all time highs pretty often, that is not an issue. So if hashrate keeps going up eventually price will follow because it means bitcoin keeps getting increasingly secure and at some point it will be clear for market participants that we bottomed and current prices would be cheap.

I am mentally ready for further dips tho so if it happens it happens, but to me it looks like we'll keep going sideways for a while unless Bakkt fundamentals are strong enough to pump it.
458  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Has Hit the Bottom: Why it is Unlikely to Fall Below $6,000 on: October 23, 2018, 01:12:24 AM
if the ETF is rejected, it is likely that the price of bitcoin can fall back below $ 6k, but if the ETF is received the price of bitcoin can reach $ 25k.
the conclusion is that ETF determines everything.

ETF rejections and delays are calculated in already. We were a point at which the speculation around the ETF was almost generating traders *free* money with how the market did what you and me were expecting it to do. Once your neighbour starts to figure out how things work in a market, they usually will no longer work.

Everything reaches a peak. Eventually when an ETF comes through the demand will shrink as well, and what happens the price either consolidates or drops. It's a one time event that you can't rely on endlessly, which is why actual use is the most powerful and near endless source of growth for Bitcoin. It's much better to focus on that than to hop from event to event just to sell the peak, but I'm probably one of the few thinking like that here. Roll Eyes


Indeed, it's similar to how traders were making free money basically on all the PBOC press releases in which they said they were banning assorted crypto exchanges and whatnot.

We had a period were it was rather obvious that a dip was going to happen, it was pretty ridiculous. Obviously these things don't last forever so the market stopped giving a fuck about the Chinese government:



As with everything else in markets, the shock factor is gone, same for ETFs rejections and anything else, so we may have bottomed and we are flat until the big meteor called halving to remind everyone that the supply is shrinking but there's bitcoin for everyone, it's just a function of price.
459  Economy / Speculation / Re: $10,000,000 by 2028 on: October 23, 2018, 12:27:08 AM
That's right, im making the prediction. In 10 years Bitcoin will have a marketcap of several trillions. Most fiat sitting in dumb places like bonds, derivatives, idiotic stocks, easy to counterfeit metals such as silver and gold... will be sitting on the capital B blockchain.

We'll go parabolic in ways never fathomed before. After we gross the first million barrier it will open Pandora's box. Minds will be blown, everything will become possible. Anyone not holding wealth in Bitcoin will have their goods at constant systemic risk.

Go all in and hold.

If in 10 years Bitcoin will be worth that much that means that it will severely harm value of USD. and that means that with 1BTC or with $10m you will be able to buy way less as we imagine.  Well, it will be less as we imagine right now anyway. If inflation is only few % it will already be 1/3 less. 

So why dont you rather put these long term predictions in Gold?  Will Bitcoin be worth 5000 ounces of Gold in 2018? Will be 10000?

A lot of people don't seem to realize how the USD has been performing in the past few years. Just 10 years ago we saw a massive peak (right when bitcoin was released ironically enough) on its inflation:




And then picture in the (also ironically enough) $21 trillion USD debt and growing. Then extrapolate this into 10 years... we are going to see some crazy things, and $10 million per coin in 10 years is not out of the picture. Im not worried purchasing power wise. 1 BTC will always be 1 BTC, in 10 years this fact should be clear enough that you can buy anything you need with it.
460  Economy / Speculation / Re: How high do you think Bitcoin will go on the next bull run? on: October 23, 2018, 12:10:32 AM
The longer we stay below the past ATH the higher it will go, specially if we go sideways for a long time, due the cyclical contraction and expansion in how bitcoin behaves.... it's like a fractal, like some sort of wavelength. The longer the rest the more hardcore the next punch will be, and next time I can see it going $100k+. It's ridiculous how some are pointing to very low prices like $30k or whatnot. I can feel that they are starting to get scared to give higher ATH's, just like how $20k was seen as insanity a year ago. Hell I remember Trace Mayer being told to be insane when he made his $3000 prediction. Then you have analysts like Tone Vays which predicted $7500 as the best possible scenario for ATH. Funny how Richard Heart got it right and he is more on the troll side of things. Perhaps McAfee is right after all.
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