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681  Economy / Economics / ETF rejected on: August 22, 2018, 10:24:58 PM
https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nysearca/2018/34-83904.pdf

Who would have guessed it? (/sarcasm)

Of course, no one but deluded noobs think that the SEC is going to pass an ETF, if not ever, at least any time soon.

The reason they allowed Futures is because with Futures they can apply a strong bearish manipulation on the market. They will not allow an ETF until they have kicked out 100% of noobs out of the market, and once they have more BTC in their hands than the rest of the world, they will allow an ETF.

BTC is going to $100,000+ with or without ETF, but without an ETF it will be slower and TPTB continues amassing BTC by extending the bear period. The only reason all these phantom derivative scams are allowed is for them to manipulate prices in their favor.
682  Bitcoin / Legal / Lost trading history on: August 21, 2018, 07:30:08 PM
I lost my trading history on Livecoin, which I had to use because I wanted to get some coins of an altcoin that I was interested in and it was only trading there at relevant volumes.

Anyway, the big problem is obviously taxes. These fuckers had, in tiny letters: "We only store the last 30 days of trading history". I didn't see that, and when I saw it then guess what, my trades were lost.

So basically, now I have lost the trading I did in exchange of BTC for another altcoin (particularly XSN aka Stakenet). The question is: How do I report these gains when the time comes to do so, if I lost the trades within Livecoin because apparently they don't have money to store the damn trading history for more than 30 days? This is ridiculous.

Oh and I've also got some trading history lost on dead exchanges of back in the day, like Mintpal. It has happened to many. I wonder what you did when you tried to cash out gains, and you didn't save the .csv file or whatever on time, meaning that you have no way to prove origin of your gains.
683  Other / Meta / Re: Altcoin Discussion section can change name to Trash discussion on: August 21, 2018, 07:06:35 PM
The altcoin section has undoubtedly a ton of shit posting but there's a lot of legit discussion there too, you just have to find the good threads. Part of the charm of that section is that you must really go deep in the tons of trash looking for gold, and sometimes you find some people actually talking something of value, even actual devs talking about their projects. It's not fair to call the entire thing trash tho.

This meta section has tons of people trying to recover their account due the massive backlog of unrecovered ones, it's literally filled with it, so similarly, you must search for threads that aren't the same thing a million times. Theymos said that he will fix it soon with an automated recovery system, so that should fix the meta section.

I wouldn't even waste time trying to moderate the altcoin section, this is a bitcoin forum after all. Just keep searching for the good content out there.
684  Economy / Speculation / Re: What happened to this 'easy 10k'? on: August 21, 2018, 06:30:21 PM
Just wondering guys, you were all so confident we were in a strong bull market and would break 10k easily, looks like the opposite is becoming a reality and we're heading straight back to new lows.

see that 10 days have passed and the price has not reached the $ 10,000 and to be more accurate has a long time that we do not see this price of $ 10,000, unfortunately we have many analysts who are making very optimistic forecasts and these predictions never come true , they only create expectations in people and after a while people disappoint. I do not even believe these predictions. In my opinion the price will increase when we have more demand and we should not be too optimistic.


We also have many analysis making super bearish trends, like the Hyperwave guy, I don't know his name, but he claims sub $1000 BTC before a bottom is reached. Someone will get really bad on the bear side, just like on the bull side. It's all about finding coming growth and not being shaken out of your position because this or that analyst said whatever. Remember that we had PhD's saying that Bitcoin was going to be traded for under $10 in 2014, see how that went for the people that actually paid attention to them because "they have PhDs" and shit.

If you just try to accumulate on the dips and wait for the graph to flatten out, because it must look nice and flat for a while before it goes ATH again, you will be ok, just don't panic and have some patience (patience being, being able to hold below $10k for a long time, even an entire year).
685  Economy / Speculation / longforecast.com 2017 vs 2018 on: August 21, 2018, 05:39:54 PM
The other day someone mentioned this website called longforecast.com, I wasn't aware of it but it seems pretty useful to sense a long term sentiment of the market or at least a part of it.

Well here is the current data:

https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd

The even more interesting part is that I was able to found the oldest data the website had at least according to the wayback machine webpage, and look at the prices:



This noone was expecting $20k, not even $10k, hell not even $5k. And now we are looking at $50k predictions. This shows how quick market sentiment can change in Bitcoin. If you aren't holding any you can miss out very quickly.
686  Economy / Economics / Re: Crypto currency may not disrupt the Trillion Dollar Global Market on: August 21, 2018, 05:20:53 PM
You are counting a lot of value that isn't really value, but government phantom derivative wall street scam sort of Maddof ponzi schemes everywhere out there. All that bulk if money isn't really in hard assets, so a big chunk is just inflated bullshit.

To measure how much BTC is disrupting the market just look at allocation of hard assets such as gold into Bitcoin. The more BTC grows to challenge the 7 trillion dollar gold marketcap the more disruptive it is becoming since it's displacing gold as hard money. You can't compare fiat with Bitcoin because fiat is easy money.
687  Economy / Economics / Re: Let's Talk Taxes on: August 21, 2018, 02:18:08 PM
You would need to check what your jurisdiction has to say about that. In the case of the US, most people aren't reporting anything until they cash out, but in some places, and im not sure if the US included, you must report even crypto to crypto trades, which means it's absolutely insane because most people have lost at least partially our trading history, specially when it comes to dead exchanges. And some exchanges such as Livecoin, only save history for a couple of weeks. I realized this when it was too late and I lost the trading history I did on that exchange, so please tell me how in the fuck im supposed to report these gains to the taxman now?

At the end of the day this all too new, and if you consult a professional, he will say something, you consult another one another day, and you will get a different reply. In this situation it seems to me that the only safe place is your Bitcoin wallet, and then decide in the future what to do about it.
688  Economy / Economics / No threads on the ETN? on: August 21, 2018, 01:48:41 PM
Everyone seems to be obsessed with the SEC's approval or rejection of the next phase of the ETF in a couple of days, which will be obviously dennied and my thesis is the market is smart enough to know this and so the rejection is already priced in which means there will be no dump.

However, no one seems to be talking about the ETN, which would allow investors immediate access to "BTC shares" without all the bullshit that the ETF needs.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-15/lovelorn-u-s-bitcoin-etf-fans-may-find-satisfaction-in-sweden

More info there. Looks like it's already opened? didn't do much market wise.
689  Economy / Speculation / Re: Impact of the pending ETF in September? on: August 21, 2018, 01:26:00 AM
Probably will be rejected and we'll go into the next speculative ETF period for January 2019. I believe the ETF being rejected is already priced in. I mean what fool actually things it will pass?

So if it actually passes, the price will pump, which means it's good news, there's no downfall for the current situation, simply hold it.

Something else that nobody seems to be talking about is the fact that the ETN does what the ETF does, without the SEC bullshit in between, which means all that capital could be comming irrespective of what they have to say. Now im not really sure how the ETN can even be a thing without SEC approval but apparently it can happen.

I just hate how the SEC doesn't allow people to invest on Bitcoin, but they offer them derivatives that are way more dangerous. I mean they ran Maddof for years.
690  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who will pull a Lingham this time? on: August 20, 2018, 05:25:03 PM
Who else is there? add yours if you know anyone "famous" with a pessimistic prediction so we can monitor how they do.

The main point here is: Some of these guys will look like clowns in the long term because someone always makes an overly pessimistic prediction, which costs money to people that follow said prediction. It doesn't matter if the price goes lower than it is now, someone will get it wrong by a long shot.

Who will then be the next to join the unfortunate list?
As a matter of fact, it's easier to find famous positive predictions with btc going over $25k in 2018, than famous pessimists. W. Buffett is pretty negative about bitcoin, he keeps saying it's a useless thing, because it's not representing any real product in contrast with stock. I couldn't find any specific price predictions made by him, though. I also found this Nouriel Roubini economist guy who said back in February that btc will go down to zero. This guy is pretty serious, he has a Harvard Phd degree in Economy and there's an article on CNBC oh his 'noted economist's' views, and yet we all know how wrong he is probably going to be. I choose him as my famous pessimistic guy.

My favorite permabear is this guy:



He became a meme because he fucked up and he has now doubled down on his prediction. He is also a PhD and the lot. His name is Mark T. Williams, its one of these academics that write think pieces on mainstream media.

https://www.coindesk.com/mark-t-williams-bitcoin-bulls-time-will-vindicate-prediction/

And that's for 2014. Here is the original 2013 article that started it all:

http://www.wbur.org/cognoscenti/2013/12/05/bitcoin-currency-mark-t-williams

Quote
Once sellers outnumber buyers, prices will eventually drop below $10, erasing all gains. This price collapse will occur by the first half of 2014.

This is EXACTLY what im talking about. There's always some smart ass which calls a price that's way too bearish which never gets hit. And this is what ends the bear market.

691  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price prediction for August, September, and up to December 2018 on: August 20, 2018, 05:05:40 PM
Where did you copy that from? these valuations are obviously too low. This is is what the website is saying for me right now:

 Bitcoin price prediction for August 2018.
In the beginning price at 7735 Dollars. Maximum price $7764, minimum price $5881. The average for the month $7063. Bitcoin price forecast at the end of the month $6871, change for August -11.2%.

BTC to USD predictions for September 2018.
In the beginning price at 6871 Dollars. Maximum price $7769, minimum price $4776. The average for the month $6669. Bitcoin price forecast at the end of the month $7261, change for September 5.7%.

Bitcoin price prediction for October 2018.
In the beginning price at 7261 Dollars. Maximum price $9013, minimum price $7261. The average for the month $7990. Bitcoin price forecast at the end of the month $8423, change for October 16.0%.

BTC to USD predictions for November 2018.
In the beginning price at 8423 Dollars. Maximum price $8423, minimum price $6668. The average for the month $7671. Bitcoin price forecast at the end of the month $7170, change for November -14.9%.

Bitcoin price prediction for December 2018.
In the beginning price at 7170 Dollars. Maximum price $7170, minimum price $5601. The average for the month $6491. Bitcoin price forecast at the end of the month $6023, change for December -16.0%.

So either something went wrong when youcopy pasted and some sort of weird conversion happened on these values or the site was bugged when you copypasted it. Notice your numbers also lack the $ sign, very strange. What im missing here?
692  Economy / Speculation / Re: $10million in 2023 possible? on: August 20, 2018, 04:34:36 PM
This is my favorite model so far when it comes to framing the impact of halvings on the price:



So if we are going to use that channel, frammed within the halving periods it could mean that we would hit $100,000 somewhere around 2020-2021 period.

Worst case scenaro, we stay within the lower bracket of the channel, which would mean delayed in as much as 2024 or so.

If it goes parabolic mode it could hit higher valuations. I mean the McAfee prediction is still not insane, it got way ahead of the McAfee $1,000,000 by dec 31 2020 curve by a ton during $20k peak so there is a big margin to have during this bear market. It could still go parabolic and hit $1,000,000 for all we know.
693  Other / Meta / Re: Meta board flooded by account recovery thread ( ban/locked and hacked account) on: August 20, 2018, 03:54:47 PM
We have been through this, but I say talking about it for the millionth time is good, it is good for as long as there is not a solution, otherwise the problem would be forgotten.

And the problem grows at an exponential pace. There is people waiting for 1+ year, after signing addresses. Totally nuts isn't it.


As theymos said some time ago the recovery will be automated, as he is working on the new system which should have been implemented this month, but as we know theymos, he is probably traveling somewhere with speed of light and the time in minutes there are measured with years here soo.. idk what is his idea for a "month"...

The real question is: Why so many accounts need to restored from hack? (after the hack in the past)

Big part of the accounts are sold and then the seller is trying to get it back as he has the signed address in the list and claiming that the account was hacked. That's why there should be an "investigation" for each case.

This sounds good. Can you point me to the exact quote of theymos saying that? I can't find it. I would like to know how exactly the system is going to work so it cannot be exploited by attackers to steal accounts.
694  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Can ETH Down impact bad effect on Bitcoin? on: August 20, 2018, 03:19:03 PM
Bitcoin is a more speculative tool. He has more liquidity than other cryptocurrencies. Demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum is due to various reasons. The rise in the price of the Ethereum depends on the demand for developing DApps on this platform and to a lesser extent on speculation.

But the only use for Ethereum that we've seen in the real world, has been the one which basically raised money for ICOs. Other than that, there's no evidence of remarkable usages of Ethereum which have had an impact at any relevant levels.

Meanwhile the Ethereum blockchain keeps growing into what seems an unstoppable clusterfuck. Vitalik still fails to give us an explaination on what he has on mind other than "Casper is coming soon". Oh and don't forget about the PoS hardfork. I really want to see that one play out.
695  Economy / Speculation / Re: Former CEO of Paypal on CNCB: "Bitcoin is going to 0" on: August 20, 2018, 12:38:46 AM
They always say the same things that bitcoin is fraud, scam, will go to zero, Etc.... And much more to come But this is all just FUD and when the price of bitcoin rises quickly they will be gone in an instant without a trace and I never have been a fan of paypal at all, There are a lot of issues regarding their services and Paypal never supported bitcoin from the start you will sure need a third party exchange in putting your money from your bitcoin wallet to your paypal, That is why I already stop using my paypal a long time ago.

This is not surprising from the perspective of the competitor because they would do all means to get rid of it. They may be able to convince those people who are not into bitcoin yet but for those who do, well good luck to them as their moves are already obvious from the start. Majority of the crypto community would not listen to their babbling because as long as people earn from it then they will continue using it.

He is just trying to find the way to promote himself, nothing else.
This is just pure guessing without any solid information or grounded theory. He is not the first or the last one to say something like this but why giving to such statements any importance at all. Just because he' s former PayPal CEO? That doesn't mean anything and it's not giving him any credibility .
So, just forget about it.

Just what you said, he is the former Paypal CEO and a competitor of cryptocurrencies when it comes to payment options that's why people take notice of what he is saying. He is biased with his former company that's why anything that he would say would just equate to protecting the business and not his own. Who knows, he is also investing in cryptocurrency and just want to buy it cheap.


I just think these guys are too high on the fiat pyramid that they cannot fathom any sort of competition and really believe Bitcoin is worthless. When you are at the top, you become blinded. This is how empires fall, and their power vacuum become filled by what they thought was a mirage or a non threat.

It's either that, or they are secretly buying small amounts. I say small amounts because if these billionaires diversified to any relevant degrees, due Bitcoin being tiny, we would know and we would know immediately, the price would skyrocket. Of course they would most likely go OTC, but I think it would leak on the news quickly, so it would have an impact on the markets.
696  Economy / Speculation / Re: Former CEO of Paypal on CNCB: "Bitcoin is going to 0" on: August 19, 2018, 07:04:53 PM
The problem with these guys is that they cannot get their heads around the concept of having value outside of the approval of governments, which is the main point of Bitcoin.

Oh, they surely can. It's just people here thinking they can't, which is a completely different story. It goes up for Warren Buffett and Bill Gates as well. Do people seriously believe these entities don't know how things work? Come on. People here really need to grow up.

The whole point here is that they don't want people to store value outside centralized prisons where governments or corporations can't seize/freeze your funds. If people get to know what Bitcoin really stands for and makes everything around it pretty much obsolete, it's a massive blow to every business in the same field potentially. Banks and PayPal & co have never thought to face something like Bitcoin that you can't stop.

LN is the difference that will potentially be the fatal blow to them. Bitcoin as digital Gold is something they can somewhat handle since it's not a good form of money right now. If Bitcoin gets its currency aspect together, oh boy, brace yourself for the shit that Bitcoin will have to eat through.

I unironically think that, at least some of them, cannot fathom the concept of storing value outside of government approved assets. Most of them also say gold is mostly trash, like Mark Cuban for instance, but he says that at least gold is used for some physical stuff, but the speculative part for him is trash because he cannot fathom the government going south.

Sure some of them get it and see it as a threat.

For me Bitcoin is already as good as it gets. If LN works out, that's just a bonus. I hope it all goes well and we start seeing it competing with payment procesors but again, difficult to compete with centralized entities in terms of speed and so on.

People need to get that what makes Bitcoin valuable it's already there. LN is an extra.

Also funny how none of these that think it's going to 0 open shorts. They always find some excuse to not short it. At the end of the day they are scared and not sure about their prediction.
697  Economy / Speculation / Re: Former CEO of Paypal on CNCB: "Bitcoin is going to 0" on: August 19, 2018, 04:26:54 PM
Unbelievable how some people are shortsighted and are not embaressed to make fools of them on tv. How that guy can be a ceo of anything is what bothers me.

He's not shortsighted at all, just a hypocrite because of his by external parties (likely banks and whatnot) sponsored bias.

This dude knows exactly what makes a great payment tool or service, and the way he tries to talk Bitcoin down shows exactly that. If Bitcoin was really not worth anything and had no potential, no one even remotely connected to the fintech sector would even bother to speak out against it because they know it would vanish anyway. Them trash talking Bitcoin means it's a competitor with an insane amount of potential, especially with LN fully deployed.

That dude didn't even said one single word about LN. He knows there is not much to trash talk there. What beats near instant and near free transactions? Can't think of anything. Smiley

Also, we need these skeptics to be around. I'm in the mood for some bearish trash talk after how we have been flooded for months with $100,000 before this or that time nonsense.


The problem with these guys is that they cannot get their heads around the concept of having value outside of the approval of governments, which is the main point of Bitcoin. So for as long as they think anything that isn't approved by a strong government "doesn't exist" and in the sense that it still has value, is a temporary one and will go to zero, there is no way to argue with them because that is their worldview.

LN being a success or not isn't even the point, it's just what I said. They cannot fathom the concept of value outside of government approval. CNBC hasn't invited a single guy on their show that states this point as far as im concerned. They should get someone with some knowledge on the concept of hard money like Saifedean Ammous.

698  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who will pull a Lingham this time? on: August 19, 2018, 03:46:51 PM
Not only he sold for peanuts, he also was supporting 2x.

He sold because he believed one of the pre bcash forks like Bitcoin Unlimited was going to swallow Bitcoin whole which shows how little understanding he had of the whole thing.

Mr. Heart had some entertaining thoughts but he proved to be just another scared kiddie. You can pick up equally interesting thoughts elsewhere without being exposed to disturbing candelabras and less hubris too.

He was part of the infamous New York Agreement to get segwit2x going, im not sure he was a BU proponent, he just wanted segwit with 2 MB blocks, the so called "BarryCoin", which was developed by jgarzik under a client called btc1 or something, definitely not the same client and devs as BU.
We tried to tell him that he was wrong and it's was not going to happen but he wouldn't listen.

I just checked out what Heart is doing these days. Apparently he is back in Youtube and he hired some sort of instagram model/escort to discuss crypto with while she wears a bikini lol.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwx9dz444y4

I remember he said he would do it so he would get people clicking on their videos but I thought he was joking, but he actually did it.

Still has his forkcoin "BitcoinHEX" and his "CDFToken" thing on his video descriptions so I guess he is still working on these/pumping these.
699  Economy / Speculation / Re: When do goldbugs give up? on: August 19, 2018, 03:30:00 PM
I dumped all my bitcoin into gold when it was near $19k so who fucked up?

Good one. But this is a long term game. Let's see Bitcoin returns vs Gold returns in a couple of years.

Gold always was and always will be the ultimate store of wealth, you just have to ignore short term price noise.  I still stick to my prediciton that in the next few years central banks will release their own state issued crypto and bitcoin will be banned in most developed countries as it will be seen as direct competition by those in power.

And how that wouldn't legitimize Bitcoin as a store of value? If it's a treat for governments, it's a good store of value. I mean if the government cannot put their hand on your pocket with their endless resources, that they have to go to the lengths of "banning it" (whatever that means), then who will?

By them doing that it will just prove they are impotent. They can't compete, so they attack it (and fail doing so, once again).

Also there's no way "governments" form a global coalition, since when have they? there will be some governments that ban it, then there will be other governments which are pro-Bitcoin, and these countries will be happily accepting Bitcointers to retire there and pay decent tax when they buy their luxury villas and cars and so on.

So when a government bans Bitcoin, they have to think bout all the tax and high purchasing power individuals that they are going to lose long term.
700  Economy / Speculation / Former CEO of Paypal on CNCB: "Bitcoin is going to 0" on: August 19, 2018, 02:56:55 PM
He is back:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKPLH7n5DWw

I remember watching Bill Harris being very bearish about Bitcoin, always questioning the fundamentals and saying it's worthless, just a ponzi scheme that will go out of fashion, just a trend, very much in the style of Jamie Dimon.

Another video here:

Former PayPal CEO Bill Harris Reveals Why He Thinks Bitcoin Is The Biggest Scam In History | CNBC

Is this an actual bullish indicator? Let's look at the Jamie Dimon indicator:



We'll have to wait and find out.
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