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701  Economy / Speculation / Re: Banned dude projects Bitcoin bounce maybe to $10k, then renewed decline to $4600 on: August 19, 2018, 02:37:43 PM
$4600 would prove wrong the theory that Bitcoin cannot go below $5500-ish, which is the guesstimated cost of mining one bitcoin that I've heard lately. So far it seems to be working. Every time it breaks below $6k it gets a huge buy that creates big candle of up to $400+.

This doesn't guarantee anything but it's another resistance to considering given past precedence.

As far as all altcoins going near zero... I am not sure the market as a whole is mature enough to realize how most altcoins are shitcoins and they just should be holding as much BTC as possible on their portfolios. So when the next hype for crypto comes, I still expect another altcoin bubble.

And people said Bitcoin never went below its previous ATH until it did in 2015.

The markets don't care what anyone pays to mine a coin. That's the miner's problem and no one else's and I'll guess we might be shocked at how cheap it is for certain groups. Perhaps miners are in there batting away at the price but that seems like a rapid route to total ruin.

I've stopped giving a shit about the near term Bitcoin price. It'll be fine in the end. Is the $4000s possible? I don't see why not.





I don't like to compare 2013's crash with the current crash. The fundamentals were terrible. I was ready to hit ridiculously low prices after the MtGox clusterfuck debacle. Very ready to hit below the april 8 2013th peak.

But right now things are different. The fundamentals aren't a nightmare that I can see, to justify super low prices.

As far as the cost of mining theory goes, I don't know how legit the actual numbers are, however I know self fulfilling theory is very legit, and at this point the $5500 ish barrier might have become a strong enough resistance that it's take in consideration for the market. I mean look at the graph, it always bounces back.


Could we go below there? sure. Would it break this theory? not really, unless we have a sustained period of price below the supposed cost of mining. If it happens then I guess the theory was wrong. But if we spend a week or so and then it quickly pumps back , it wouldn't really disprove it in my book.
702  Economy / Speculation / Re: Banned dude projects Bitcoin bounce maybe to $10k, then renewed decline to $4600 on: August 18, 2018, 06:01:47 PM
$4600 would prove wrong the theory that Bitcoin cannot go below $5500-ish, which is the guesstimated cost of mining one bitcoin that I've heard lately. So far it seems to be working. Every time it breaks below $6k it gets a huge buy that creates big candle of up to $400+.

This doesn't guarantee anything but it's another resistance to considering given past precedence.

As far as all altcoins going near zero... I am not sure the market as a whole is mature enough to realize how most altcoins are shitcoins and they just should be holding as much BTC as possible on their portfolios. So when the next hype for crypto comes, I still expect another altcoin bubble.
703  Economy / Speculation / Re: When do goldbugs give up? on: August 18, 2018, 05:43:48 PM
$1 trillion dollar market cap for Bitcoin is such an important and powerful statement, that it will definitely result in not only capital parked in Gold to shift towards Bitcoin, but pretty much all legacy assets will start bleeding to a certain degree.

After that $1 trillion dollar milestone the "slow" capital (the braver institutions, governments, hedge funds, royal families, etc) will start to massively inflate Bitcoin's price towards even greater hights. It would be a tremendous achievement when governments will finally start stocking up Bitcoin instead of just Gold.

It's actually quite 'easy' to see Bitcoin hit a market cap of $1 trillion. Bitcoin at $60,000 with a circulating supply of around 18 million coins at that point is only a matter of time. Realistically, we're just another bull run away from doing it.


Yeah we can hit the milestone by the next halving, or even before that if it goes into rocket mode earlier. After the $trillion psychological barrier is hit, I expect a big FOMO by big players. Most likely big players will use OTC but this will translate in the market prices short after since there is always someone that knows about these huge OTC deals but they don't have access to OTC liquidity so they go to Coinbase or whatever to pick a bunch and the price rise starts.

But still, I think goldbugs are too deep in denial. 1 $trillion may not be enough. Perhaps it takes half of gold marketcap's for them to wake up, or even as long as gold has a bigger marketcap they will think BTC is just a temporal trend which will go away. I just can't wait to hit the first trillion, once we hit that the rest will happen pretty damn fast.
704  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Bitcoin in a DotCom recovery phase? on: August 18, 2018, 04:06:05 PM
no to everything you said Cheesy

first of all bitcoin is not recovering from a DotCom bubble phase because it was not a DotCom-like bubble to recover from and it doesn't matter that price has fallen this much, it has fallen a lot lower than the intrinsic value of bitcoin which doesn't prove anything.

as for altcoins they won't just die. if they could just die because of some pump and dump then they would have died a hundred times already because this is not the first pump and dump they are experiencing.
what will happen is that they will continue to get dumped, some of the smaller weaker coins will die and the rest will just restart the same pump and dump again. and we will see newer big pumping coins this time instead.

Saying that "altcoins just won't die"... I don't agree. Calling the death of an asset is perhaps a bit subjective. I mean, does it really need to hit literally "0"?

Personally I don't think so. If the asset has crashed and fails to ever recover and has terrible fundamentals, even if it's traded and has some small volume... it's for all intended purposes a dead asset.

For instance, Bitconnect was being traded with small volume last time I check. And there's endless coins out there, which are being traded in marginal volumes.. these are all dead.

So something doesn't need to hit 0, you can be holding something that's basically dead even if it has some action.
705  Economy / Speculation / When do goldbugs give up? on: August 18, 2018, 03:42:17 PM
I was wondering, what does it take for a hardcore goldbug like Peter Schiff, or our very own r0ach, to admit that they fucked up big time holding gold instead of Bitcoin?

Currently gold is around 7 $trillion marketcap, I haven't paid attention to gold to get the exact value but last year it was around that. Bitcoin is around 100 $billion as of today.

At what point will some traditional goldbugs publicly accept that they should have at least, diversified some of their gold into Bitcoin? I have added a poll with 5 options, the most conservative one is when BTC reaches 1 $trillion, because I don't expect any of them to admit they were wrong any time sooner than that.

The poll never expires.
706  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Bitcoin in a DotCom recovery phase? on: August 18, 2018, 02:48:59 PM
There are only 2 possibilitites that I see now:

For the second one to arrive though enough alts would have to maintain enough illusion of future utility and value. Despite everything they're all still useless. ETH is the only one being used in any numbers and its only use has been to create more useless alts.

There'll have to be some very impressive conjuring tricks, or some actual results, to fool enough people again. There's probably 2-3 years before another monster bubble which leaves a lot more time for scepticism to marinate.

I know when dollars are in the air all sense goes out the window, but there'll have to be some type of new hook to get alts flying. The top alts at the top of this bubble were even more of a joke than the handful that were around in 2013. People will look back on 2017 and wonder what the hell they were thinking.

Well for the new investors that come during the next bubble, they will not really think about that imo, they will just jump on whatever latest ICO of the our or whatnot. I know governments have clamped down on ICOs and now it's harder for scammers to get their scams going, but nonetheless they will find ways to host them overseas and since this is a global market the millions will come.

New investors, they always look at Bitcoin and think, "oh it's too late", then they look at a couple alts, they find them too developed to get the x1000, so they will search for whatever brand new promise, that's where the most dangerous bubbles happen.
707  Economy / Economics / Re: What does chance for bitcoin in Economic war the 3 poles USA vs CHINA vs EU ? on: August 17, 2018, 11:45:35 PM
I started to know bitcoin in 2014  ~~  I lost 85% of assets compared to the first day of entering the market.

I stopped reading after that, because you are full of BS, if you said that. The price of a bitcoin was below $1000 in 2014, and it went up to $19 000+ in 2017, so there are no way for you to lose money, if you kept those coins and sold some of them in 2017.

In any way, an economic war will only benefit Bitcoin, because people tend to shift their wealth into commodities with a store of value, in times of war and Bitcoin is such a commodity.  Wink
Thanks for advise.but I started to know bitcoin in 2014 but i only real begin trade and buy ico in  2018 Sir.I also hope the next time the market warm up.and developing more


You should have bought in 2014 or you should have bought at about now. Never get in while we've had several days of several figures up coming from like $3000. At some point we were going up $3000 each day, that was bubble mode.

In the future fluctuations from $10,000 up $10,000 down will be normal, but that's when the price will be $100,000+. Look at the BRK.A stock which is valued at $300,000 a share, to see how it fluctuates in these terms.

Just always buy something that you believe is underrated given the fundamentals, after the crash happens and the graphic flattens out a bit for a couple of months.

As far as trade wars, it will get worse I think. Trump's ego is too big, he will not back down, he will keep crushing the Turkish lira, not making it easy for China and so on, so things aren't going to be too nice. The USD will keep going up, Trump should do well in his next term too, but somewhere in the second term we should start seeing some big cracks on USD, then BTC will shine like never before, so ideally you want to hold for like 10 years and you will set for life (obviously im talking about BTC and not scams).
708  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Bitcoin in a DotCom recovery phase? on: August 17, 2018, 11:10:57 PM
It wasn't a burst yet, merely a taste of it. When there will be a real burst, altcoins will be going to literally zero, and only some top coins will retain some small portion of their value. But this might happen without Bitcoin being in bear phase, it can very possibly happen while Bitcoin will have a bull run, and altcoin bagholders will be abandoning their shitcoins as they will realize that Bitcoin is the coin that works and alts are just vaporware. Also, a good indicator for the state of this alt/token bubble is how accepted the narrative of "blockchain tech" is outside of the crypto sphere. You can see that the skepticism starts growing as many tech experts are voicing their doubts.

There are only 2 possibilitites that I see now:

1) We have already had our "dotcom". Now, most investors are aware that most altcoins are useless crap in which people used to put money hoping to get their BTC x1000 in the next pump of the hour. All these big gains on altcoins are gone and it's better to stay 100% on BTC as we go to 6 figures against USD in the next halving.

2) We only had a small taste of what's to come. Trillions will come in to create a mega altcoin bubble with a very strong Bitcoin as well (probably when BTC is somewhere around $100,000 to 300,000). Considering that dotcom bubble peaked at 6.7 trillion USD, we couldn't have seen anything yet. Then after that, all altcoins die, BTC is crashes to like $10,000-40,000 or so, and then here we go again "Bitcoin is dead" etc.. for a couple of years, then Bitcoin comes back dwarfing all previous peaks and goes to $1,000,000+

See:



Im more inclined towards the second scenario. Mainly because I believe most people were still clueless about BTC + alts, so there will be massive investors in the forms of $trillions which will have to go from that "im going to invest in this alt which will x1000" phase to acceptance "most alts are nonsense and BTC reigns supreme" acceptance phase.
709  Economy / Economics / Re: What is the most expensive commodity at the moment? on: August 17, 2018, 07:49:21 PM
Most likely some sort of diamond. Some diamonds of the rarer kind go for insane amounts a gram. Of course, the problem is they are often faked, so the market is most likely inaccurate, rigged, since they are very hard to discern from the real deal. See:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_diamond

Another reason to hold Bitcoin above other assets.


There's no good way to tell if a commodity is "expensive" or not, unless you're looking at previous prices.  Oil isn't at its all-time high, nor is bitcoin, nor are precious metals.  If you were talking about the stock market (which you're not), you could look at price/earnings ratios, and that would tell you if a stock was expensive because there are yardsticks people measure that by.  Not so in the commodity market as far as I know.  If anyone can educate me about that, I'd love it.

Bitcoin is pretty expensive IMO if you compare it to 2010.  This is relative, though.  If it hit $100k in 2025 we could look back and say it was cheap in 2018.  It's kind of a weird question.

The most expensive stock has to be Berkshire Hathaway A. I remember in 2008 it had a massive crash from $150,000 to $75,000 and people were tripping and thinking everything was going to 0:



Ten years later and it has finally crossed the $300,000 line:





You can look at that all time graph and get an idea of how the BTC all time graph will be in 20 years, the good news is we can get at near the bottom.
710  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who will pull a Lingham this time? on: August 17, 2018, 07:20:35 PM
I remember back in March 2017 that I was expecting the bitcoin price to go under 1000 USD. Grin
Vinny Lingham was just an ignorant guy that was following the short term trends and made a prediction without any good analysis and strong evidence.I can see thousands of traders that are expecting the bitcoin price to crash during the next few months. There will always be guys like Vinny Lingham on one side and John McAfee on the other side.

Not only he sold for peanuts, he also was supporting 2x.


Dunno. But it's a pretty standard trajectory regardless of which direction you call for. My personal favourite was Richard Heart who got himself a nice wee audience with his lofty commandments. Then the price went south and he started crying and saying Amazoncoin would be the best because you could use it with a bank.

All of these self proclaimed 'thought leaders' seem to wind up going batty in the end. Far better to stay modest and real.

Well, to be fair, Richard Heart predicted around $20,000 for X-mas, so he was pretty accurate, compared to Tone Vays that is. I think he then said it would go for $25,000, and we all know that was a dead cat bounce. I remember he went nuts for a while, made a video on twitter or somewhere (now delete) where he was like crying or something, saying it was all over. I think he had a long position so he got fucked with the crash.

Richard had some good moments when he was in the WCN podcast, but he's a bit of a troll and has a scammy vive. He went supporting some shitcoins, and attempted to create his own ones, not sure how that is doing these days. He claims to be a billionaire which is most likely bullshit.
711  Economy / Speculation / Re: BITCOIN DOMINANCE, HOW FAR WILL IT BE? on: August 17, 2018, 07:02:27 PM
I believe the real Bitcoin dominance right is is somewhere around 70%. Given the fact that in coinmarketcap (which is just a wrong way to measure the dominance of Bitcoin in cryptocurrencies as a whole) is already past 50%, it's safe to add a good +20% extra to that figure at any rate.

See this article by whalepanda on why the coinmarketcap indicator for BTC dominance is totally fucked up, easy to understand:

https://medium.com/bitcoinfoundation/the-bitcoin-dominance-indicator-fallacy-2b11093869d4
712  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: With Bitcoin Sinking, Crypto Miners Just Dig Deeper on: August 17, 2018, 06:45:34 PM
Bitmain, Halong Mining and the biggest innovators in the game, are most likely using gear on their secret mining operations that is unreleased, we can't really know what their ROI is, they are dealing with machines we don't know. Im sure that what they release is months old, so once they have done milking that advancement in technology, they release it to the masses, not before. So by the time Antminer releases S9, there is S10 running secretly on their facilities, they can keep growing. This is my theory. They also think long term and just keep mining knowing that the coins will go up in value. I know miners must meet expenses and sell some monthly to pay electricity but any miner with a brain must have an hedge fund in which they store BTC.

It's nice to see the hashrate growing no matter if the USd valuation goes lower in any case.
713  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Books like The Bitcoin Standard on: August 17, 2018, 06:39:27 PM
You can try out these books:

a) The Age of Cryptocurrency: How Bitcoin and Digital Money Are Challenging the Global Economic Order
b) Digital Gold: Bitcoin and the Inside Story of the Misfits and Millionaires Trying to Reinvent Money
c) Bitcoin: And the Future of Money - Dominic Frisby


These sound good, I will check later. I forgot to add a classic myself, not really about bitcoin, but you can see that they were talking about something like bitcoin before it was invented, this one:

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/82256.The_Sovereign_Individual

It talks about the concepts of digital gold, digital cash, internet money... all these terms, back in 1997, so it had an insight of 20+ years before bitcoin, a nice read.

If you can take a look on a book that is titled "Cryptocurrency Investing Bible" I really think many newbies will sure learn from just reading that book, You can read about the blockchain technology, Teaching us about investing, trading, ICO bounties, And more I really think the important of Altcoins can be seen in it too, You will learn the perfect strategy in making money because of cryptocurrency, I really think it is another book you can take your eyes on and a prefect read for all veteran, and newbies a like.

Im more interested in fundamentals from historical and cultural pov with some technicals on it if needed, not really interested in investment oriented guides and that sounds just like that.
714  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Books like The Bitcoin Standard on: August 17, 2018, 03:53:47 PM
Anyone knows more books like The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous? it was a pretty decent effort in explaining the bitcoin fundamentals, why is the best form of money we ever seen, the concept of hard money and the history of money itself.

Most books focus too much on the technical aspect but not the fundamental details and why it matters.

I would like to find more literature on this subject.

I hope that there is an improved version of The Bitcoin Standard somewhere in the future. It's good but I think it can be improved addressing some points that weren't touched, let's hope for a second edition. Meanwhile I would like some more books.
715  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Legal ransomware ? on: August 17, 2018, 03:21:03 PM
I think it's one stupid idea.
Basically you crypt your files and the only way to get it the decrypted is by sending a sum to an address from which those guys take a fee?
Correct me if I'm wrong but from their tiny instructions, this is all I could figure.

Besides, it's not ransomware, it's more like masochistware to me.
What if you need those files urgently and you have no BTC left?  Grin Grin

There are hundreds of ways to secure your files by encryption for free, why would you pay for this?



Yeah, it's so damn dumb. Why would you involve anything that has to do with payments to unlock your own data, let alone anything online? your encrypted stuff shouldn't need an internet connection, you just need a strong password.

And even then, you have enough problems already trying to remember your password. I did some tests with truecrypt, used some strong ass encryption, and then I realized that I entered the password wrongly in a couple of hard drives. I have no idea how to access these drives anymore, it's basically impossible, they are useless unless I can be bothered with formatting them and I don't really need that space.

Anyway bottomline is: just have a strong password but be sure you remember it. You don't need payments or anything fancy.

716  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Reasons behind Bitcoin/Cryptomarket fall??? on: August 17, 2018, 03:09:01 PM
Hi Friends,
What are the reason behind Bitcoin and whole crypto market fall.
Is this SCAMS or SPECULATIONS???

Neither scam nor speculation, I believe that after ETFs are approved (ever), Bitcoins will be dominating the whole market at an extremely out-of-reach level which none of the alts might be able to achieve. The reason for Bitcoins' fall was, Bitcoin grew so gradually last year (literally without any reason, but it was all the speed of patience that was held for years before that spike). Considering my analysis over Bitcoins, I can say that every time Bitcoin spiked, it used to come back down to levels that were at least 1/4th or 1/5th, I think Bitcoin has already reached its bottom this year and it should carry the rally from now on by taking over the markets with great events coming one by one.

Quote
Few days back I read news about a big Bitcoin scam busted in Gujarat state of India.Its approximately $314B( INR 22000 Crore).
Also every day news came from different parts of world about same kind of scams.Are these scams also responsible for crypto market fall and halt growth of this new technology???

I believe this might be true in a case if those scammers were (ever) able to DUMP Bitcoins over markets.
If things are busted, I believe that their effects would also get over sooner, because everything is clear and Bitcoins are (maybe) under the possession of authorities from that point of time because they might auction those coins or may never let us us, which may then be considered as burnt coins as they won't be coming to the markets as the country (India) is not in favor of crypto (not at least currently).

I don't count in the ETF ever passing. The only hope is that the tight relationship between the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the SEC will be able to create a climate of understanding between parties involved instead of having a bureaucratic war in which some want it done but others think it's a scam and BTC should be banned outright immediately 8We already had such views in the previous hearing).

Bitcoin can go to ATH without an ETF. We really don't need it. Altcoins are a non issue because none have solved the byzantine generals problem in a way that can outdo the security of the Bitcoin network, so there is no reason to fear flippenings of any kind.

The only thing you can do is keep stacking and wait for the rest of the market to align within the new reality, being that Bitcoin will not go anywhere, and your wealth will be increasingly at risk outside of it.

At some point owning 0 BTC will have more risks than owning 1 BTC, and I believe we have already reached that point of inflection for a while, the rest of the world just need to realize this fact, then we'll be at $100k+ in no time.
717  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin, Who really wins? on: August 17, 2018, 02:57:31 PM
i don't know where some of you people come from, maybe you live in a fairyland. but in real world where i live we don't  call staying stable above $6k with small fluctuations as "going deeper and deeper"!
you probably looked at altcoin prices which lose about 10-20% per week and thought bitcoin is the same. but you should have looked at bitcoin price itself which has still been above $6k and rising all this time while altcoins go down.

"who wins?"
what does that even mean? you mean among altcoins and bitcoin? that is not even a competition! they are there to fill the pockets of traders with more bitcoin...

Too many people have been brainwashed by certain traders and "experts" that we are going down, like Tone Vays which is always a bear, but they often forget he was wrong by several orders of magnitude by calling $7500 a best case scenario top for 2017.

And even if they were right, it's still riskier to own 0 BTC than to own 1 BTC, if you can afford 1 BTC right now that is.

As far as who wins, long term holders win of course. People trying to outdo the market always end up screwing up. Stick to the fundamentals and hold.
718  Economy / Speculation / Re: What happened to this 'easy 10k'? on: August 16, 2018, 07:15:18 PM
Finally, the bears are back. Love it.

I was getting tired of all the $20,000 and $50,000 before the end of the year noobs.

People don't realize how toxic these bull run noobs are for the overall sentiment of the market and the ecosystem in its entirety. They aren't here for Bitcoin's utility, they are here solely to ride the hype and then shit on Bitcoin. I rather see the price go down and we get rid of these noobs than to have the price go up and still deal with them. >2017 noobs are the worst noobs I have ever seen participate in this market, and I'm not exaggerating.

If this is what mainstream adoption looks like, we'll go through worse noob cycles in the forthcoming years.

The kwukduck bullish indicator is right back in time Cheesy

But I would like to see the original account calling the bear shoots. Perhaps he doesn't want to risk his reputation with his Legendary account? But then again, how many times has kwukduk been wrong by then? probably on the 100ths... considering every single post he ever did was calling out a bear market.

I want to see him around when we hit an ATH again just to see what he has to say. Probably will start calling the next crash. "We are going back to $30,000!!"
719  Other / Meta / Re: My account was been hacked on: August 16, 2018, 05:25:53 PM
You can use the same Gmail account to regain your account by recovering your password via Gmail. But you need to make sure that your vys account is already linked to your Gmail account. good luck
Can you explain how to do this?

Doesn't make sense to me. If I did read this correctly, the hacker changed the email, he must have changed the pass by now too. There are logs where you can check this or you can ask a mod. Your yopmail should be useless by now and not linked to the forum.

Anyway, im sorry to be the realistic here, but you will most likely not recover the account. It's a Full Member account, and you only have an ETH account.

There are Legendary members with BTC signed addresses that don't get their account back as well:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3652698.0

This doesn't mean you should stop trying. Send it to cyrus and theymos and wait. I don't think there's any strict rule against bumping your own thread from time to time, don't spam and you should be ok.



720  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price forecasting (Yale University research) on: August 16, 2018, 04:50:00 PM
I wouldn't pay a single satoshi in exchange of so called "premium" courses of trading or fundamental analysis. What for? Everything you need for is already on the internet. If you can't learn it yourself then I guess it's worth ti for some, but really, if you are expecting some sort of magic insight because you paid for this or that course you are delusional. It's like all these tradings charging for private courses, like the Tone Vays one. Why would you pay for that? the only one making solid money is Tone Vays himself with that 0.1 BTC rate, most traders lose money.

I would only pay to get insider information from a solid source, which is what really gives you asymmetrical advantage vs the market.

Also visit my thread here to add all of the pessimistic predictions you can find:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4906761.msg44191375#msg44191375
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