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721  Economy / Speculation / Who will pull a Lingham this time? on: August 16, 2018, 03:43:29 PM
Vinny Lingham sold back in march 2017 expecting way lower prices, I don't remember exactly what figure he predicted but im pretty certain he expected it to go well down into 3 figures again.

Of course, we all know what happened: He sold right at the damn bottom, before the rise to $20,000 started in the following months after.

The key question now is: Someone is going to be this guy. Someone is always this guy. There is always some "expert" of sorts (or anyone with a big Twitter megaphone for that matter) that expects super low prices, and ends up screwing up big several % points, just like Vinny.

We have a Tone Vays prediction of $4900 best case scenario to $1200 lowest case scenario. (remember that he predicted $7500 as best case scenario for a 2017 top)

His friend from "Hyperwave" predicts something ridiculous like 3 $figures.

We got some hedge funds of whatever in Bloomberg predicting $1300

Who else is there? add yours if you know anyone "famous" with a pessimistic prediction so we can monitor how they do.

The main point here is: Some of these guys will look like clowns in the long term because someone always makes an overly pessimistic prediction, which costs money to people that follow said prediction. It doesn't matter if the price goes lower than it is now, someone will get it wrong by a long shot.

Who will then be the next to join the unfortunate list?
722  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: POW vs. POS on: August 16, 2018, 03:00:16 PM
As far as PoS + something else combos, im not impressed. All of the present models can be gamed at cheaper cost than Bitcoin.
That applies to all altcoins, including big PoW ones like Ethereum Wink

A PoW/PoS combination has the advantage that while the "predictable attack cost" is bound to the PoW hashrate, there is a "plus" of security coming from the proof-of-stake algorithm which doesn't cost additional energy consumption. The hard part is to quantify this "additional" attack cost - PoS coins are more vulnerable to social engineering, bribing and similar attack strategies, which normally should be expensive, but there is no way to calculate an attack cost based really on "hard facts".

Quote
I remain open minded when it comes to something new and groundbreaking but for now anyone thinking any of these coins can flip Bitcoin is insane.
I don't believe that any coin - neither PoW or PoS - will "flip" Bitcoin in the short to mid term. But nobody knows what can happen in 10 or 20 years. In theory, Bitcoin can also "enrich" its security algorithm with PoS, PoC, or PoB - but this would need the approval of miners and/or big economic nodes.

Yes, I included altcoins that are PoW too. We have had many PoW coins being 51%'ed lately. Bitcoin Gold included. Then Verge and some others. The next one is Bitcoin Cash. I believe we will see something interesting happening in september with the spam attack that Bitpico has planned for BCash. If they are legit and not paid by Roger Ver to simulate a failure of the attack, then it should work and BCash should collapse somehow, who knows if some funds get moved against owner's will.

No matter what algo are you using, electricity is limited, and most of it will go to Bitcoin. Then non PoW models or combinations of it don't make me feel any more secure. They usually involve "delegates" and stuff like that which is a big red mark for me. The net result isn't more protection that I can see.
723  Other / Meta / Re: ■■■My 2013 legendary account was hacked :( help me to find how and to recover it on: August 16, 2018, 02:21:51 PM
Verified message myself, all seems ok.

It just seems like another case of being stuck in limbo, even after providing all the evidence required by the mods. Very sad.

People say it usually takes 6 months to a year, just hang in there. It will be recovered soon hopefully.

No. It's somewhere between months to never. Realerre and everyone else are unfortunately just wasting their time right now.

It's insane isn't it? You spend years of your life here, making connections, business and so on, getting some sort of reputation, then all of a sudden your account gets hacked and suddenly you have a bunch of PMs and unfinished deals with people which you cannot complete because you cannot access your account.

Then you go and check what's needed to get it back, comply with all the requirements and all you get is an endless waiting queue.

It's just scary to think it can happen to any of us. This thread shows not even Legendary members are safe. Im just hoping theymos eventually spends some serious time cleaning the backlog of accounts that have delivered the required proof and have been waiting for months. It's just not fair.
724  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why is bitcoin regaining dominance? on: August 16, 2018, 02:03:16 PM
I think people are turning their alts into bitcoin in the hope of ETF approval and bitcoin will rise and buy back their alts in much less satoshi than now.

That's pretty dead at the moment. I'm not sure where the optimism comes from.

If people have been dumping their alts (enough for this sea of red anyway) for Bitcoin, Bitcoin price should be surging. Instead, the $6000 support was broken for the first time in I don't even know how long. From those tidbits, one can probably conclude that money is leaving the market that and every coin is doing horribly, with Bitcoin much less so than alts.


The ETH will not get decided until well entered 2019, so there is still some hope in the mind of speculators adn noobs that it will get passed. I mean don't get me wrong, CBOE and SEC have a good relationship, but it actually passing is anotehr different story.

If I had to bet, I would bet that the ETF will not pass anytime soon, it will take years. The good news is, we don't even need an ETF or anything like that to go to the so called moon, it just speeds up the process.

I would like to think people have given up on altcoins, but I think the altcoin bubble will grow to trillions before it crashes and then BTC goes to a couple $million per coin.
725  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: LTC will hit 500++ on july 15 2019 on: August 16, 2018, 01:51:25 PM
halving is in august 2019, here is the explanation what that means: https://cryptomining-blog.com/tag/litecoin-halving/

i checked the price in 2015 a month before halving, it went x7, and it stablize x2 before halving date.

so lets say it will be 110 x 5 not x7= 550 usd, then it will stablize at 220.

This is estimated price. I personally think it will hit 680 on july 15.

your thoughts?

My thoughts are evident: Why bother if you don't include the price in BTC? LTC it may go to 500 USD, but BTC may go way higher, and the net result would be that you lost money if you exchanged your LTC for BTC.

A coin must perform better than BTC. At the end of the day you want to increase your BTC holdings, not USD holdings.

And fundamentals wise, even if you are focusing in USD.. why would LTC even pump? LTC pumped back in the day because it was used as a testnet for segwit. If it wasn't for this, I doubt it would have pumped as much. So it must have some special use case in the future for it to pump.

There's a possibility it pumps during a super BTC bull market due inertia but also a possibility people just start dumping alts to be exposed to BTC only.
726  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: POW vs. POS on: August 16, 2018, 01:38:28 PM
I don't believe you can manually give people the coin supply as the developer sees best fit, hoping that is egalitarian enough that no big whales sitting on fat sticks will be formed. I think this is delusional. On a long enough timeline, elite factions of people holding massive amounts would arise, then all they have to do is sit on their ass and command and conquer.
I currently tend to agree here, and have mostly moved away from (PoS or PoW) coins that were distributed in an ICO (with very few exceptions when the concept is very interesting). That's why I consider PoS must be combined with another mechanism to distribute the currency units. Like Peercoin or Decred do with their hybrid PoW/PoS systems, and at least in Peercoin, you won't get rich or even "richer" sitting only on your coins because the PoS reward is really low (1%/year).

Proof of Burn and Proof of Capacity/Space are another two interesting algorithms to combine PoS with. Both suffer from some of the same drawbacks of PoS (both have a Nothing at Stake problem of varying degree) but they are open for validators from "outside" that don't hold a big "stake" and also don't simply reward "sitting on coins". In contrast, NEM's Proof of Importance seems to be little more than a failed PoS extension - maybe with good intentions (encourage usage) but bad consequences (potential blockchain bloat, useless transactions).

There is something that feels very cheap about having to wait for some guy in a forum deciding when to release the next batch of coins, feels like a communist on top of the pyramid.

The automated, predictable algorithm of Bitcoin is much more elegant. It's open for competition, whoever gets the most hashrate wins and this means putting in the work.

As far as PoS + something else combos, im not impressed. All of the present models can be gamed at cheaper cost than Bitcoin.

I remain open minded when it comes to something new and groundbreaking but for now anyone thinking any of these coins can flip Bitcoin is insane.
727  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: POW vs. POS on: August 15, 2018, 06:29:06 PM
I don't believe you can manually give people the coin supply as the developer sees best fit, hoping that is egalitarian enough that no big whales sitting on fat sticks will be formed. I think this is delusional. On a long enough timeline, elite factions of people holding massive amounts would arise, then all they have to do is sit on their ass and command and conquer.

With PoW, at least you have to work hard to keep your monopoly going. We give Jihan a lot of shit because he is a bit of a cunt, but to be frank he works hard in his business, it's very competitive out there.

In PoS the Jihan equivalent would just be able to sit and keep getting mad stacks of staked coins.

PoS just doesn't feel right, there are some interesting experiments out there trying to remove PoW from the equation but I wouldn't count my money on it for the long term.
728  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin might be $5000 short term, $1000 longterm if support is broken - Sosnick on: August 15, 2018, 03:50:09 PM
On every Bitcoin bottom there will always be people that in the long term end up looking like morons with their overly-pessimistic bear predictions. This always happens, no exceptions. It's just a fact, statistically, some people aim for way lower prices than what ends up happening. Case in point, the bear predictions of Vinny Lingham:



He went bear and sold right before the big bull market to $20k started, when BTC was hoovering $1k. Ouch. This puts perspective on things, and how all these big names can be wrong, very wrong, often.

Other names include Tone Vays and his infamous $7500 top best case scenario for 2017, and we all know what happened. He is obsessed now in predicting this bear market after missing the top by a long shot.

The real question is, does it even fucking matter if you get in now or at $1k in the long term? seriously. Anyone with a brain should be buying at current prices because $6k might be the final bottom after all, and so it's reasonable to start buying. This creates a bullish case already. And even if t went lower, then take that as a discount. Think long term.
729  Economy / Speculation / Re: Technical Analysis Contest With Merit Rewards on: August 15, 2018, 03:32:55 PM
^  TA used the right way with the right indicators for the right trading style could help make your trades less spewy.  That and good bankroll management would at least make you lose less than you would have if you weren't using some TA. 

But TA is not a crystal ball.

I don't believe it does a thing for day trading to be honest. I've never seen anyone doing daily trades getting consistent yearly earnings. Simply it's too much noise.

A much different story is looking at the big picture with some basic technical analysis. I've never enjoyed the fancy indicators. My favorite are channels, so that's drawing support and resistance lines and go from there. From time to time I would use a fib indicator to look at the crashes and potential pumps. Mean lines (the horizontal ones) to also test peaks, MACD for volme.. not much else. I've never been able to use boolinger bands and other stuff.

Also anything less than an daily chart is nonsense to me specially in bitcoin, like I said before, too much noise.
730  Economy / Speculation / Re: Big pop up again on: August 15, 2018, 02:53:11 PM
As we approached sub $6k and actually hit $5.9k... we see another huge pump to $6400. Impressive, a $500 dollar move up just like that, on a single candle. Someone bought a pretty decent amount of coins.

I wouldnt say its just like that, we got people watching like hawks looking for entry and when to catch a tide for ride up and so on.  BTC is famous for its speculators of course.     The scenario I see now is of a negative trend but also exhaustion and the end of that trend.  People typically get gloomy at their most extreme on the tail end of this negative trend but the important note is we already fell, its too late to be gloomy now the smarter thing is keen eyes looking for a change in the prevailing wind.

Doesnt have to happen but my view of this 'sudden rise' is people carefully noting and entering for a possible rise.   It takes more then one factor but for a global market its complicated to see all points of views in all currencies.  In some very troubled currency like Turkish Lira for example they already are grateful to hold some BTC I think

In order to profit from the hedge that bitcoin delivers against fiat currencies deprecating against it, you must own bitcoin before your local fiat currency crashes.

The problem is just like in previous fiat disasters, people usually don't own BTC when the fact happens, they start looking into it after the fact, which mean is harder to obtain. You must have some longer term planning. So if I was turkish I would have already BTC instead of waiting for my currency to dump 25%.

Also most people are computer illiterate and don't know how to act fast. But it's only a matter of time they start catching up.
731  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish again? (Back at $5500) on: August 15, 2018, 02:39:41 PM
I just checked the preev price, and it's at roughly $6000.  Did it actually get to $5500 while I was asleep?  OP was written just under 12 hours ago. 

OP is one of those who opened a short position hoping for a big profit. Wink
basically the lowest price was about $5960 when he started this topic and the lowest that was reached were like this:
Bitstamp: $5880.0
Bitfinex: $5876.5
Coinbase: $5902.8
the hourly charts look funny now:


I know a lot of people that have been opening short positions every time we crossed the $6000 line, they thought we were going to re-test $4900 long term resistance line, and were so smug about their shorts.

Each time they have been rekt by these pumps that happen when we cross $6000, and just like pigs, shorts get slaughtered. It's really sad to see, but hilarious at the same time I guess.

How many times do we have to go through this to see that shorting Bitcoin, specially at $6k range, is extremely dangerous? This could be the definitive bottom after all, and we'll just stay there until bears run out of steam, then race to ATH begins again.
732  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish again? (Back at $5500) on: August 14, 2018, 07:14:14 PM
It just popped back to $6100+ with a nice green candle just like clockwork. Whales will simply put not let it go below $6000. We are witnessing a war between whales and Wall Street, which want to crush the price so TPTB can buy a fuckton of Bitcoin at super cheap prices below the mining cost of the allegedly $6000 range, which is why whales don't want to see it below $6000.

It's a matter of time either sides losses patience or too much money, but the longer it stays above $6k, the higher the risk for these holding 0 BTC waiting on the sidelines for a perfect bottom to enter the market. Remember that we went from $3k to $20k in 3 months. The next bull run will dwarf the previous one.
733  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Is the crypto exchange with no fee a scam or a working business model? on: August 14, 2018, 04:08:51 PM
I would use such a service since im not a day trader and I trade in very occasions, when I need to dump altcoins or bitcoin mostly, or when some genius decides to fork bitcoin again and I need to dump the forkcoins etc..., in this case, I would use the free subscription.

But when it comes to daytraders, you will need to offer an extra, otherwise people will not stay in your exchange. You must have data of how many trades the average trader does and offer them a better deal than paying fees in the regular exchanges.

To make money off people that use the free subscription, add some ads with adsense, and premium accounts would disable these ads. I don't mind ads if they aren't annoying (no pop ups and crap like that).
734  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish again? (Back at $5500) on: August 14, 2018, 03:16:33 PM
The Bitcoin pirce trend has always been clamped within $5500-6000. The spike pricing $7000 was too synthetic since an increase if 1k in a day was a bit sketchy. Will we ever see pricing skyrocketing again? What are your thoughts?

There will be no any skyrocketing this year. There is some possibillity in next year, but I doubt. It is long long bearish market. And if ETH will be rejected (And I think it will) then there will be a massive selloff with price range $2.5-3K to the end of the year.

Don't count it off yet. Remember that we went from $3000 in September to $20000 in December... that's two damn months for a $17000 increase... price predictions of $10000 at the end of the year were considered as delusional insane and we got x2 of that delusional-at-the-time prediction.

If we can stay on this $5500 to $6000 range for a couple of months (similar to the $150-300 range from post-MtGox crash) then we could skyrocket again at the end of the year, and we would be coming from double the point of departure of the last bubble so we could very well hit an ATH.
735  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: What the Hell is going on with Crypto market? on: August 14, 2018, 02:49:20 PM
What the Hell is going on with Crypto market?
Bitcoin drops from $19,000 to $6000
ETH dumps from $1400 to $250 today
NEO: $150 to $15
BTG: $400 to $13

God Save Us! Please.

From Dec 2013 to Jan 2015 BTC went from 1000 to 200 USD and it took 3 years to go up to 20000. Also most of the alts will dump even more than BTC before eventually come back up. They're just market cycles, blockchain tech is still fine and will be used now and in the future.

Most altcoins are scams and are only propped up by scammers that have an interest in keeping the price high before they dump. They serve 0 purpose at all. It's a big bubble. The question is, did the bubble peak already and we'll go back to %80 BTC domination as it should be, or it didn't even begun yet?

By comparison to the dotcom bubble, it shouldn't have begun yet, so I believe altcoins will see another rise. The altcoin bubble will probably peak at a couple trillion dollars when BTC is past $100,000++ and everyone is making mad money on shitcoins.

At that point it will be similar to the dotcom bubble: That is, a massive purge of shitcoins, followed by a bear market of a year or two, then BTC will start its rise to $1,000,000, similarly to Amazon's all time graph, look what happened years later after the dotcom bubble. 99% of altcoins will stagnate to 0.
736  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: God save Crypto on: August 14, 2018, 02:17:39 PM
How would you explain the current fall in price of cryptos.
There are no news of crypto banning or confiscation. So what is the reason for it?
Did we wanted more than we needed?
Is our greed killing crypto and blockchain technology in whole?

FUD, crypto will survive, and continue to thrive, its just that the market is evolving and current top tokken are getting under pressure, if the bitcoin dominance index wouldn't be instrumented by the bitcoin sect to celebrate themselves as they do that now, market would look more diversified already

regards

"Crypto" will not survive, there was never such a thing, it was only a mirage, a shitcoin bubble. Bitcoin is the only thing that will survive long term, with few honorable mentions, maybe Litecoin as a testnet for Bitcoin, maybe Monero as a niche currency... not much else to be frank.

And it's not about a "Bitcoin sect", but about applying proper fundamental analysis. All these shitcoiners are just mad that they missed the Bitcoin boat and want their own x1000 coin, as a result they create nonsense and nonsense doesn't stand the test of time long term.

The good news is Bitcoin is still insanely cheap and will go to $1,000,000, the bad news is most people don't have a 10 year long term vision so they will not make it.
737  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: ETH, road down to $50? on: August 14, 2018, 01:57:32 PM
Even Vitalik Buterin said at some point that Ethereum was never meant to be a store of value in which people would put tons of money and see it grow, because it just lacks the characteristics of what ham,es a good store of value. He didn't even expect it to go much beyond $7 or so. The whole Ethereum  thing is a big clusterfuck waiting to collapse. It doesn't really sale, the blockchain that they use it's cluttered with trash (this is why we need a fee market) etc. Money is not a turin complete world computer, that is the last thing you want for a solid store of value.
738  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Jihan Wu in half a billion in losses after BCash trade on: August 14, 2018, 01:04:11 PM
i'm surprised there hasn't been more talk of this on here.

it's been an absolutely insane move on bitmain's part and totally craps all over their reputation as shrewd operators.

they mined bcash but didn't sell any of it. that means they swallowed all of the cost for that electricity, gear, premises and staff. they insisted on taking it for their miners but again didn't cash out any of it. and on top of that they used the bitcoin they have mined in the past to buy more bcash.

didn't anyone in the company pipe up at any point about this being a shitty idea?

how can they expect any investor to take a company seriously willing to burn untold amounts to service a grudge? at no point anywhere does any of it make any economic sense. it's pure brat.


They thought that they could flip people's switch and brainwash them into thinking BCash is now Bitcoin. Just imagine all the BTC that Roger Ver has spent in buying Bitcoin.com, the @bitcoin twitter handle, the youtube channel, tons of advertisement... and that is just marketing. Then add in all the coins lost in trying to prop the market, losses in mining, losses in BCash accumulated by selling antminers... a total disaster.

I would dump my BCash if I had any.
739  Economy / Economics / Re: Be ready for gold's bullish wave on: August 13, 2018, 03:23:06 PM
Also, do you really want bitcoin to reach a state of stability in its present price?


The main point is it can't. Bitcoin is simply too small. Any deep pocket moves are going to result in volatility. For as long as the marketcap is lower than a couple trillion dollars, volatility will not be reduced to gold's.

I expect Bitcoin to move $10,000 up and $10,000 down by the time we are at 6 figures, kind of like what the Berkshire Hathaway type A stock does, but overall % of volatility will be much lower in absolute terms.

So we just have to way, the money will come. If the elites want to keep their wealth they must diversify some on Bitcoin.

Goldbugs will remain deluded into the fact that gold is pretty much useless in the information age, it's a lost cause I guess.

Yes but what I was asking was if you, I assume as a bitcoin holder, want for bitcoin to reach a state of stability in its present price going from $6000 to $8000.

Won't it be good for its adoption as a stable currency?


This is non sequitur.

First of all, what I or you want is irrelevant. Macroeconomy doesn't work that way.
In this case, for adoption as a stable currency, you would need a massive marketcap. Again, look at gold's marketcap, at around 7 trillion USD that's the volatility you get, if you are okay with that % of volatility to use a stable currency, then you will use it, will the rest? who knows.

What is clear is, Bitcoin is tiny at $6000, $8000 or $20000, we need it to be $1,000,000 ish so there's enough money in there to reduce volatility. Bitcoin can be stable for a while, but then out of nowhere it will pump massively (and then crash, and so on as it goes higher overall) so there isn't an incentive to spend it on everyday purchases when you have deprecating fiat to do groceries with.

And still, you can't compare it to a government manipulated currency which has a fictitious stability.

To have a Bitcoin economy we need to reach a point where 1 BTC = 1 BTC and you stop thinking in terms of any other thing, that is what they mean by hyperbitcoinization.

Until then BTC will be a better gold, not necessarily used on daily transactions. Lower quality monies will be used for that.
740  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Why deferring Bitcoin ETF is a good thing? on: August 13, 2018, 02:40:26 PM
Guys, just let it go already. We will never get the ETF approved, most likely. This is the mindset you have to have about it. You have to expect the ETF has never being approved as the most logical outcome.

If you are going to invest on bitcoin only because you think it will pass you will be dissapointed. You don't understand the fundamentals of your investment since if you did, you would not worry about ETF and other related derivatives, since you would understand on the long term it doesn't matter. Unfortunately, most people fail to have a long term vision, few will make it.
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