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901  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will 2018 bitcoin amendment price be similar to 2014? on: July 11, 2018, 11:56:28 PM
For me it seems rather evident at this point that Bitcoin moves in big waves creating a fractal like form. Big peaks of FOMO, followed by crashes, followed by higher floors of long periods of "it's dead", and this keeps repeating.

The graph would be like this:




There's no reason to not think this will stop being the case for as long as other monies decrease in purchasing power overtime and for as long as Bitcoin remains the best way to store and move wealth.
902  Economy / Speculation / Re: will the end of the year bitcoin rise to $ 20,000? on: July 11, 2018, 07:21:30 PM
I don't see it likely, but it's possible. If it happens tho, it has to happen at the end of the year, otherwise we will not have enough time to consolidate a lower price. Ideally we want to start going up slowly. When we go up slowly people don't even realize it's going up. Gradually they realize how "wow, BTC is now higher $1000 than two months ago". When this happens a couple of months more it's when the big pump events are triggered, as people start regretting not buying earlier.

In other words, do some dollar cost averaging monthly while we are out of any up and coming mega pumps happening anytime soon, otherwise you will belong to either the group that FOMOs or the group that misses all the gains (which will establish a new higher floor post-crash)
903  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Had Satoshi Nagamoto made himself public, would BTC be where it is today? Why? on: July 11, 2018, 03:08:00 PM
Hi there. I know it is decentralized of course, but what I meant is that had Satoshi be punished and asked to assist in destroying bitcoin (Im sure no one thought about this before), there are many ways he can do so. Looking at the mess of forking, 51 attack just part of the mess im talking about that brings the death of Bitcoin

again bitcoin is decentralized and Satoshi is just a developer and he doesn't have any more power than any other programmer out there specially at this point that the network has grown this big and is still growing.
the only thing that revelation of Satoshi can affect is the price and that is only because it is assumed that Satoshi may control a large amount of bitcoin. but you are not talking about price you are talking about "destroying bitcoin" which is not possible.

as you can see the forking mess was a temporary drama and the 51% attacks have been a part of the forks (the altcoins) just like it has always been. for years different altcoins have been under 51% attack that wipes out their blocks and creates nuisance for exchanges that did not start with these forked coins.

Assuming the theory of satoshi being actually just a single guy that had a moment of inspiration to come up with his byzantine generals solution mixed with all the previous work by Szabo, Wei Dao, Adam Back and others... it would be a disaster if he decided to stay public. It only damages the project, having a real person around in my opinion. Just look at Vitalik, the guy is a meme, he has too much power, his tweets can shake the market, we don't want that in Bitcoin.

He would be constant target, constantly scrutinized for what he says and how he thinks, it would have an impact on the price, kind of like Trump with the USD, again we don not want that.

Overall I think he did the right thing. He also did the right thing by never touching the coins again. If he ever moved these coins it would be a disaster for the market.
904  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Don't you think we should use BTC as a medium instead of capital gain ? on: July 11, 2018, 03:02:56 PM
Do you think we should change our attitude towards bitcoin ? Don't you think we should use BTC as a medium instead of capital gain.


It's simple: As long as there are reasonable expectations of the price of Bitcoin going up, that is a disincentive to spend it/sell it, or get rid of it in any way, because you would be losing some serious moon tickets.

The only way people would feel comfortable spending it is if the price flattened out, which can only happen if Bitcoin is above $1,000,000, so by then I guess the volatility will be low enough to start spending it.

Forget about spending it for your groceries, unless someone comes up with some serious technology on a second layer way that allows for it.
905  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Would you fight for satoshi? on: July 11, 2018, 02:58:12 PM
The main point of bitcoin is that it is supposed to work even if government bans it, so there would be no point in protesting. Bitcoin is designed in a way that you don't need to protest, only mine, host nodes, and use it, that's all you need to do, you don't need to make laws around it, it must survive with bitcoin friendly laws and unfriendly bitcoin laws, if this wasn't the case then it would be a failure.

So if you want to "fight for satoshi", just help the network, improve the code, and that's about it.
906  Other / Off-topic / Re: A car will cost you $700/month to $4000/month on: July 10, 2018, 04:27:20 PM
I have had a '98 Eclipse which I inherited from my uncle. Unfortunately, I had to sell it since it eats a lot of fuel along the way, and seeing the state of traffic back in the Philippines, it really isn't worth it to ride your own 4 wheels if your work is only 2-3 miles from home. Also, I don't think a car needed its wheels to be replaced every year if you're only driving an aggregate 3650 miles a year, not unless if you use your cars into drifting and creating donuts on the pavement because why the hell not. For people who live on the countryside, a car is a necessity. Just imagine the time you'll be saving driving to your work instead of waiting for the earliest bus. But of course, one must still consider his/her financial means when acquiring a car, so there's that.

The Eclipse was a very cool car. There were many cool sports cars in the 90's.  I always wanted one of these (Supra, NSX, 3000 GT...) the problem and something that no one has mentioned yet: Soon in many cities, specially in Europe, it will basically be illegal to roll with these cars, you will get a big fine due contamination. So the era of old sports car is over, you want to get anything past 2010 ideally if you want to be sure that you don't end up with an illegal car if you like or need to enter big cities.

So another task to do is to look at your local laws for vehicles because most likely your car will become illegal to drive if it's not rather new, so it wouldn't be a smart long term investment if you want to stick to the car you buy and aren't into reselling and cycling through many vehicles.
907  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why Bitcoin Prices Down? on: July 10, 2018, 04:16:43 PM
these exchange hacks are the best things that can happen to us. it is teaching the newcomers not to trust exchanges, more like reminding everyone. and also it is cleaning the market from the weak hands and on top of all that it is bursting the altcoin bubbles since each time the altcoins get dumped hard.

i also agree that this fall is an altcoin-induced fall. and you can clearly see it on the rate that altcoins (more importantly ETH that was hacked) is falling compared to the rate and size that bitcoin has been during the same time frame.


But I don't really understand why there was a Bitcoin drop. Please, what has Bancor getting hacked having to do with Bitcoin, at all? was Bancor holding any bitcoins? Not to my knowledge. The only funds reported to be hacked were $13 million worth of Ethereum and some other altcoin I have no idea about (PunditX or something like that).

This is very cyclical. Anyone that has been here for a while deals with so called exchange hacks as just opportunities to buy the dip.
908  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wtf Guys!?! on: July 10, 2018, 03:54:30 PM
"BUY THE DIP GUYS!"

"THIS IS THE BOTTOM GUYS!"

"WE ARE ENTERING A NEW BULL MARKET!"

So, how did that work out? LOL

Here's a quick fact. People in the real world don't want your fantasy imaginary money that can be hacked at any moment and offers no privacy whatsoever.

The mighty kwuckduck is here in one of his multiple alt accoints. This is always a bullish sign, puts a smile into my face seeing the ducks come back into the lake when there are dips. Just be ready to buy if we keep dipping, simple as that. Kwuckducks are going to be kwukducking no matter what. When we go to to a new ATH the ducks will disappear again and wait for the next ducking season.

Either we get past $7k soon or we'll dip, ideally $3k bottom to go all in.
909  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin large transaction volume or no volume after 20 years ? on: July 10, 2018, 03:08:28 PM
I don't know about the amount of transactions, but no volume would obviously mean Bitcoin has failed... miners need to be busy mining blocks, and if there is no demand for the block space, miners go bankrupt. I don't think miners can make a living out of block rewards only, they need fees, so yeah, hopefully there is enough demand for block space, that would mean there is a demand and people is willing to pay the fees to move funds, which would keep the whole thinking working and safe (no transaction demand = less miners = less hashrate = less security.. doesn't sound good). I think the qualities of Bitcoin will always be desirable by enough people out there to keep it alive so im not really worried about that.
910  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rotchilds and Wallestreet stopping the market rise ? on: July 10, 2018, 03:00:48 PM
Some people argue that the recent Bancor hack may have caused a global dip into the crypto ecosystem as a whole. For some reason, a lot of people have the tendency to sell their cryptos (even if they are unreleated to the hack) when they see these big headlines. Mostly newbies involved in these I guess, or speculators which think newbies will act that way, which create a chain reaction of selling.

It could also be that we simply failed to cross the $7k barrier and we may dip further before we start mooning.

Rothchilds/Wall St wise. If I had Rothchild's power, I would be sure to get in at the very bottom of Bitcoin, because I would have the tools to cause a bottom and an ideal entry point for myself. This is a sad reality to how high finance works, but I think I would do that. I like to think that I wouldn't be that much of a cunt to current holders by crashing the markets in order for me to get at the very bottom and shake out the noobs which will panic sell, but maybe there is no other way out. Anyway, these guys have the resources to get it done, if they can, it's reasonable to think they will. I just don't see them entering the market unless they are sure they can become massive players, and that requires a price as low as possible (but not so low that confidence would be destroyed).
911  Other / Off-topic / Re: A car will cost you $700/month to $7000/month on: July 10, 2018, 02:53:27 PM
Your numbers a vague approximation.

My numbers are for car that runs 10 miles everyday or 3650 miles a year.

But there is no such thing as "a car", you have to mention a certain model of the car or at least a type of car.

Maintaining a LADA is not the same as maintaining a Toyota Supra for instance. Resale value will also not be the same.

Just automatic from manuals change the game a lot already. Many variables.

Trying to find a car that is reliable, has reasonable maintenance expenses and will still have a decent amount of resale value after high mile count is a science in itself that requires a lot of research, which is I why I still don't have a car.

When BTC reaches $250k I may finally buy a car since I will not be as concerned about maintenance costs.
912  Other / Off-topic / Re: A car will cost you $700/month to $7000/month on: July 09, 2018, 05:00:51 PM
Your numbers a vague approximation. It depends on what kind of usage you give to your car. Some people can get away with years of not changing tires because they don't use it daily. But for daily usage it will be pretty expensive. Also it depends on what model you have, some clutches cost a fortune.

I would recommend not owning a car until you have enough passive income to keep all possible costs covered guaranteed, otherwise having a car if not needed is a massive drain of money unfortunately. In some countries public transport is also very expensive tho, so you will need to leverage if it's worth it and cheaper than moving on train.

PS: You didn't include special taxes for cars which most countries have, plus insurance.
913  Economy / Speculation / Re: Hyperbitcoinization and pattern of exponential growth on: July 09, 2018, 04:34:33 PM
I support the dumping of the old, obsolete nation-state model, in favor of AI global governance. Code should substitute governments, blockchain should substitute the state apparatus. I envy the younger generations, who will have the privilege to just plug a computer inside their brains. I will probably be dead when this is available.

Machines will rule humanity better, the future belong to the machines and theres nothing you can do to resist assimilation. AIs use logic, humans do not.

Bitcoin value is infinite. 100k will not be enough.

Hell no, do you remember what happened when ETH guys have tasked blockchain with running a company? It gave all the money to the thief because of some mistake made by programmer. Just imagine the disaster that would be caused by bugs if AI, blockchain and other buzzwords replaced the government.

Also, we have not even started working on AI that most people think about, aka General Intelligence - that thing that is called AI now is just an algorithm for solving some very specific tasks. People of the last century though we'll have flying cars and space colonies now, but instead we have the Internet and smartphones. People are really bad at predicting technology in long term.

AI is just too difficult, one of the most difficult fields, I don't believe in 10 years Ray K will be right, we would need to improve at ridiculous levels. We have super computers beating top chess players but that is a very different thing from AI thinking and creating as we humans do.

I wonder if Ray would be willing to bet money in his prediction being right. The 2045 number sounds better in my head for that, now 2029. But until we have actual robots being smarter than us with legs and feet to create things then I will not be ready to accept any sort of singularity claim. Try in 1000 years maybe...
914  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin's future is DOWN on: July 09, 2018, 02:26:18 PM
Going long term on Bitcoin will outperform going long term on mutual funds or any other conventional investment of choice.

Source?  For 'will outperform' (not 'has outperformed') of course...  lots of fuzzy thinking on this forum.

Quote
How much money are you willing to bet that Bitcoin will go back to $400 next year?

I didn't say $400 next year.  I said it's heading for $400 in 18 months.  Maybe two years.  Maybe $600 or even $800.  Look at the curve - it shows the main idea:  down, down, down.   Feel free to replace my guesswork with your guesswork on the details.  I'm just trying to point out the big picture implications of what we now know.

https://imgur.com/a/QTYOQyL

If I could reliably buy a put on BC for 18 months out, I'd put $50K or $100K into it.  I'd probably price it at $800 to have some margin.  The profit would still be huge.  However, not only do I know nothing about such maneuvers, others have looked into it and say it's impractical.  A Forbes writer did a detailed piece on that several years ago, pointing out some hidden gotchas with crypto.  Can't find the link now but it certainly put me off.

Quote
How much money are you willing to bet that your mutual funds will outperform Bitcoin?

Actually, I'm betting all my money that the mutual funds will do better.  Over the next 18 months I expect the market to return a 15% profit, not an 90% loss.  And as I noted earlier, my money won't be outright stolen, and I won't be cheated.  Those are huge benefits.  And I sleep well at night.

I understand that you consider actively betting that you are right by not holding any bitcoins and by putting your money in mutual funds, but that's not how it works.

In order to put your money where your mouth is, you have to bet against someone here that your prediction will be right. So are you willing to bet money in your prediction? 18 months from now, $800 or lower (you initially said $400 but you are raising now to double that... okay). Bitbet can be used to automate the 18 month countdown. Im sure you can find some rich guys in this forum willing to take the bet and make a lot of money on you being right and us being wrong. Are you down?
915  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: TUSD ot USDT? on: July 09, 2018, 01:59:19 PM
There are two cryptocurrency True USD and Tether. The capitalization of both currency are insane! However, Tether is risky because of problems with audit and True USD is questionable with their system! Does someone use it? What is the main function of such coins? Fixing profit?

Does somebody know the similar coin which probably better?

I think it doesn't really matter. As long as they have liquidity to get in an out of Bitcoin without all the KYC insanity which is why most people use these, any of them will do the job, and any of them are equally risky.

I don't see any reason to believe Tether is any safer than TUSD or viceversa. If anything, now that's there's competition in this field, they will try harder to be the best they can. But in any case, never hold long term any of these "USD tokens".
916  Economy / Speculation / Re: Hayes: A Positive Regulatory Etf Will Push Bitcoin to $50,000 in 2018 on: July 09, 2018, 12:05:11 AM
I have been hearing about ETF news forever now. It has been years since the first attempts by the Winklevii. I will believe it when I see it. Until them, it's just more clickbaity articles for news to fill their schedule.

If someone actually gets away with an approved ETF, even if generally I don't like all trading that doesn't happen with the underlying asset being present, it will help pumping the price a bunch I expect. A lot of computer illiterate people but with very big pockets will be able to get exposure to Bitcoin via ETF. $50k is definitely possible with a solid ETF approval news.
917  Economy / Speculation / Re: Hyperbitcoinization and pattern of exponential growth on: July 08, 2018, 11:11:54 PM
I agree with Ray K. with the next 20 to 30 years being extremely exciting technology wise and we'll see some big changes in society, but I think he is a bit delusional when it comes to reaching singularity by 2045.

He claims that in basically 10 years, AI will match human brain power:

Quote
2029 is the consistent date I have predicted for when an AI will pass a valid Turing test and therefore achieve human levels of intelligence. I have set the date 2045 for the ‘Singularity’ which is when we will multiply our effective intelligence a billion fold by merging with the intelligence we have created.

Well, AI must improve really fast, from what I've seen we are still at early stages. 10 years sounds like a short period of time for me, but we'll see. Maybe it gets that exponential and it actually happens.
918  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin's future is DOWN on: July 08, 2018, 10:55:20 PM
Quote
Have fun with your mutual funds, you may finally be rich by age 100.

Thanks, I have had fun and will be rich long before 100.

BTW mutual funds are long-term.  Which is the approach everyone here recommends - now that getting rich quick didn't work out.

My advice is simply to learn from your mistake, and don't make it worse based on slogans, dreaming, groupthink, and slanted advice in general.  Just look at who's stirring the pot... the coin exchanges.  They're the only ones who continually make money out of this.

If you must invest in crypto, sell now and buy back in at $400.  That at least isn't obviously dumb.  The market may be pumped again someday.  Or put your money in a real investment.



Going long term on Bitcoin will outperform going long term on mutual funds or any other conventional investment of choice.

How much money are you willing to bet that Bitcoin will go back to $400 next year?

How much money are you willing to bet that your mutual funds will outperform Bitcoin?
919  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin's future is DOWN on: July 08, 2018, 05:21:45 PM
Here's all you need to know.  It's on the way back to where it came from.  You can watch from the sidelines or ride it down.



This site is a social scientist's dream.  Ten PhDs could be written on the "bro" investment culture, groupthink, and general simple-mindedness.  95% of the responses to my prediction are "NO - ya gotta have faith!!"; "All markets go up and down"; "Think long-term"; and "We are the strong, and we believe".

The "long-term" heroes actually jumped in to get rich quick.  When that didn't happen, and faced with losing half their money, they are now prophets of HODL.  If the price ever does rise to where they got in, they'll sell, sell, sell.  That's a huge barrier to any advance.

But all that doesn't matter.  Bitcoin is GOING DOWN.  Back to around $400, as it was for so long.  That's apparently the real value to folks making non-standard financial transactions, primarily criminals.

Again, look at the chart in the link.  With what we know now, it's obvious that the price was manipulated, you were cheated, and if you hang on you'll lose more.

I'll be back in 18 months to say "Told ya so".  But I hope you're all out long before then.


EDIT:  For the record, I have no crypto coin.  All my money is in mutual funds.  Still risky but has done well AND you don't get cheated.  Sell your BC and buy something sensible like that.  You can still be a "playah".

Using a non-ranked alt-account to make an outlandish bear prediction in order to not face defeat when said prediction doesn't happen and we go to all time highs.

I have seen this one before. Kwukduck is that you again?

Sorry, but there is too much demand for Bitcoin, there's no way it's going to $400, because there will be a lot of people buying at higher prices. Anything below $5000 is a steal, anything below $1500 is a once in a lifetime opportunity. Have fun with your mutual funds, you may finally be rich by age 100.

"Dude use a logarithmic scale so you can see more clearly what is going on"

Dude, the only reason for log scales or any other charting shenanigans is trying to find some reason to hope.  Like I said in the OP - you're just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.  You're missing the forest for the trees.  Stand back and look at the big picture, which is very clear:  It's going down.  Of course it will jump around on the way down, but that won't change the overall trend.

https://imgur.com/a/QTYOQyL


[And - how do you post pictures right in the message like that?]

You can't post pictures with your newly created alt-account.
920  Economy / Economics / Re: bitcoin and altcoin on: July 08, 2018, 05:01:05 PM
I believe the natural place to be for Bitcoin is around 80% of marketcap share dominance, and this will eventually come as the altcoin bubble pops, because clearly, the utility of the altcoins out there is near 0 except a very reduced number, and this is not sustainable, it is for a while, inasmuch a Madoff scheme is sustainable, but eventually tower of cards will collapse and said cards don't disappear, they will be put into the Bitcoin box making it around 80%.

This does not mean you should stop looking for good altcoins. Even after all the scams I've been through, I still dedicate some time to altcoin research. It's only a matter of time we see something good coming other than Bitcoin related improvement proposals.
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