2001
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Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events
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on: June 15, 2012, 02:11:34 AM
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If you knew you could get the last bet in I guess it is ok to leave yourself unbalance and take care of it later.
But say you come across it with evenly balanced bets (50%) and you think Side A is 80% to win so you load up on Side A. Now someone else comes along and thinks side A is even more than 80% likely and they bet and now there is so much on A that you prefer B at these odds. You can't unbet A but you can bet on B now.
If you want to make sure you don't end up taking a wager you don't want no matter what happens then you need to bet both sides up front.
I wanna see you on a roulette table betting equal amounts on both red and black. Is this the kind of strategy advise people get at sealswithclubs, too? If all did that, nobody would win except the site owner even if everybody guessed exactly right the likeliness of every event. ... I guess you are just trolling given you are quite a bit into this whole gambling thing. I'm 100% serious. But I'm not saying it is always the best way. Imaging you know that Side A is 80% to happen and there is little or no action yet and you don't know how much will end up sitting on each side and you have to make your bet(s) right now (going away on safari for a month). Do you just bet on Side A hoping there won't be more than 80% of the money sitting on side A at the end? I put down 80% of my bet on Side A and 20% on Side B. That way the worst case scenario for me is break even, that would be when other's bets sit 80/20. If there is more on either side I make some (theoretical) profit. Now if you know the result 100%, no uncertainty, at all then you put the money down all on one side (same theory as before it just happens to be 100/0 this time). ok, the safari argument is a good one. still i don't bother betting when is see the others reflecting the odds exactly as I see it as my chances of winning are just too low. when the others "have no clue" i want to profit from that. Sure, but all it takes is one person with a clue and a lot of money to come in between the last time you check and the end of the betting period to leave you with a bet that you don't want. On top of that, even if you do check in time you have to have more money available to commit.
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2002
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Other / Meta / Re: Ranks
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on: June 15, 2012, 01:26:16 AM
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Ha, I never read those as platinum coins, I thought it was more like "mission accomplished, retired" and they were faded out coins.
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2003
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Economy / Securities / Re: Shorting on GLBSE: GIGAMINING, BITBOND, YABMC paying double divident
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on: June 14, 2012, 04:50:26 PM
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We are in the middle of a technology change. Soon, share offerings will pour in at a more attractive price, then people will start jumping ship. My advice is to invest in something like BFLS. I might offer it myself soon. Is there any reason why a fixed rate perpetual mining bond would increase in value over time?
When the price of Bitcoin rises faster than the difficulty goes up then mining bonds should also become more valuable because they pay out Bitcoins. Say bitcoin price doubles and diff stays the same. The bond is worth twice as many dollars, which happens to be exactly the original number of bitcoins. I totally agree. I'm jealous that you got so much borrowing action. Though I suppose I might be able to is I was willing to pay double dividends. I was responding to anyone who thinks the USD price of BTC affects the BTC price of fixed MH bonds.
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2004
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Economy / Securities / Re: Shorting on GLBSE: GIGAMINING, BITBOND, YABMC paying double divident
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on: June 14, 2012, 04:18:23 PM
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Is there any reason why a fixed rate perpetual mining bond would increase in value over time?
When the price of Bitcoin rises faster than the difficulty goes up then mining bonds should also become more valuable because they pay out Bitcoins. Say bitcoin price doubles and diff stays the same. The bond is worth twice as many dollars, which happens to be exactly the original number of bitcoins.
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2005
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Fuck you guys
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on: June 14, 2012, 04:55:32 AM
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hahahahha funny s**t. the guy who open the threat is still active on this forum. you guys can't leave the man go away
Lol, I opened this thread, clicked his name, clicked show last posts fully expecting not to see the OP at the top, I was not let down.
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2006
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How do you spend your bitcoins?
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on: June 14, 2012, 04:30:45 AM
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Wages, ads, promotions, gambling, stocks, servers, domains, gifts, tips, donations.
And buttons, candies, candles, coffee, shirts, flags, metals, a certain magazine and more.
And everything else online that I buy via a few guys who act as proxies for me.
And greasy germy FRNs.
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2007
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Economy / Gambling / Re: MyriadCoins.com - Giving away dimes
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on: June 14, 2012, 03:22:26 AM
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Ha sorry, it didn't occur to me to pay her directly for some reason.
I think that's a good method for doing multiple bets.
I can't believe they are really down 700, that's crazy. I wonder if it was bad luck back when they had a higher max or if there is some problem.
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2008
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Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events
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on: June 14, 2012, 03:05:38 AM
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If you knew you could get the last bet in I guess it is ok to leave yourself unbalance and take care of it later.
But say you come across it with evenly balanced bets (50%) and you think Side A is 80% to win so you load up on Side A. Now someone else comes along and thinks side A is even more than 80% likely and they bet and now there is so much on A that you prefer B at these odds. You can't unbet A but you can bet on B now.
If you want to make sure you don't end up taking a wager you don't want no matter what happens then you need to bet both sides up front.
I wanna see you on a roulette table betting equal amounts on both red and black. Is this the kind of strategy advise people get at sealswithclubs, too? If all did that, nobody would win except the site owner even if everybody guessed exactly right the likeliness of every event. ... I guess you are just trolling given you are quite a bit into this whole gambling thing. I'm 100% serious. But I'm not saying it is always the best way. Imaging you know that Side A is 80% to happen and there is little or no action yet and you don't know how much will end up sitting on each side and you have to make your bet(s) right now (going away on safari for a month). Do you just bet on Side A hoping there won't be more than 80% of the money sitting on side A at the end? I put down 80% of my bet on Side A and 20% on Side B. That way the worst case scenario for me is break even, that would be when other's bets sit 80/20. If there is more on either side I make some (theoretical) profit. Now if you know the result 100%, no uncertainty, at all then you put the money down all on one side (same theory as before it just happens to be 100/0 this time).
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2009
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Economy / Services / Re: Gigamining / Teramining
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on: June 14, 2012, 02:44:45 AM
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Does anyone know why Giga and many other Mining bonds have lost around 20% of there value in the last few weeks.
Has a large investor pulled out?
Considering that it really didn't take very much volume to lose that much on the price, I doubt it. The more likely explanation, as I suggested earlier, is that nobody wants to leave their bitcoins locked up in GLBSE to keep open bids. Thus the bid depth on even the biggest markets like gigamining is laughably small. Occasional random fluctuations mean that someone decided to sell a few shares at whatever price, which took the price from the stable 1.50 down to 1.30ish, because there was almost nothing in between. Naive investors and speculators, ignoring the lack of liquidity, thought the new 1.30 number was somehow meaningful despite it taking just a handful of shares sold to get there, panicked, and sold more. Since there still was very little depth, this took us down to 1.01. A few small purchases later, we're in the 1.25 range again. I'm not saying that 1.50 or even 1.30 is the right price for gigamining, but the kind of panic I've seen over these effectively meaningless price movements over the past few days is laughable. GLBSE really just needs to figure out how to incentivize market makers for stocks. There's not necessarily an incentive for individual issuers to do this, but due to transaction fees there's always an incentive for the exchange itself. Thus if they could get serious market makers into the exchange, the whole economy would be a lot healthier (a liquid market is a happy one), and so would GLBSE's profits. I suspect a lot of funds that would be doing work like market making are getting sucked up by pirate and the pirate funds. It's a little bit of work to manage market making and some risk and it's not usually going to be as profitable as 28%/month. The big swings are the incentive. I don't think whatever marginal incentive GLBSE could add is going to make much difference.
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2011
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: It's coming ...
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on: June 14, 2012, 12:39:11 AM
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I said "FINALLY!!" when I saw the first post. Then I read your next post. I don't understand how this is interesting in the slightest for online sales. Why would I want to buy a prepaid Bitcoin card and wait for it in the mail instead of just instantly receiving my Bitcoin as soon as I pay for it? And, hasn't it already been done with Bitbills and Causicisuccuisusucss coins? So, here's my suggestion: Push hard to get them into a store. Any store. Then push for more, and more. You'd be a huge step ahead of Bitinstant in the retail environment..! Even if it's just a trial run in a single 7-11 store, or a single slot on the shelf at your local WalMart, or But that's what I'd be aiming for with these cards. BTW, I do love the design. Clean, slick, and noticeable. +1 Though if you can use a CC that is a step.
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2013
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Economy / Gambling / Re: MyriadCoins.com - Giving away dimes
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on: June 13, 2012, 09:20:59 PM
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After she made and lost 10 0.01 BTC bets:
> i found it tedious and not much fun, tbh > not sure if that would have changed had i won though > its too much work putting the numbers in over and over > i mean, it saves the wallet to deposit into and u only have to type first number and it remembers > but always a diff wallet to pay it
Keeping the address active for the same wager briefly crossed my mind, but since we reserve funds to be sure we can pay them I don't know how that would work. How do you reckon SD does it? Unlimited loss risk? And go manual when the hot wallet runs out? edit: ohh, what about a "play the same bet again" button to make it reserve the funds one more time?
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2014
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Economy / Gambling / Re: MyriadCoins.com - Giving away dimes
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on: June 13, 2012, 09:15:21 PM
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She's thinking now that the reason it wasn't updating was because it was saying "double check your amounts" because the numbers were too high... She's made her first bet, 0.01 to win the max, with a 0.24% chance of winning. Not surprisingly she lost. She guessed 6942, and would like her free dime please, and is a newbie so can't post here. Should she post in the newbie forum, or is my word good enough? I think she plans to make the same bet 9 more times now... Your word is good for a dozen dimes. Distribute or keep as you like. Thanks for sharing the game with people and keep the feedback coming.
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2015
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally!!!!!
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on: June 13, 2012, 02:47:40 PM
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I guess that's one way to look at it.
As said, I don't like it. But this is the picture I am currently getting. The commission has the power to keep it going at all (our) cost. I think people have no phantasy of what govts can do. I think we won't go hyper until debt is at 800% GDP. Because that is about where it happened in the past. The German real estate market has a capitalization of 5 Trillion. Add the Dutch, Austrian, French, Finnish.... They can put a mandatory mortgage of 30% on your house to raise another 4 Trillion or so. I don't like it, but this is what I think they will do. After inflation, of course, because inflation removes the debt of house owners, so they can easily put new ones on. They did it before (1924). In short, they will rip us blind to keep the system going. Forget about what collapse may happen, because it won't. Again: I don't like it, but this is what I think will happen, whether I like it or not. Hyper happens from loss of demand for a currency. People keep demanding really shitty currencies when there are no other options, but if bitcoin is usable enough those old currencies could self destruct while they still look healthy compared to breakdown points of the past.
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2016
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally!!!!!
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on: June 13, 2012, 09:08:06 AM
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I'm too busy staring at it to post it here, but go look at the MtGox all time log graph. It's the longest runway ever.
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2017
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Economy / Services / Re: Gigamining / Teramining
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on: June 13, 2012, 08:42:46 AM
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Why does (1) matter except for it's potential effects on (2)?
Imagine that 1 BTC = $100. How would you feel about 1.35 BTC for 5 Mh/s? Not so great, I'd reckon, since you would be FAR better off spending a few BTC on mining equipment of your own. Now imagine that 1 BTC = $0.10. Etc. Why not? (Because difficulty is way up, but that's all covered in (2)) You could look at it this way: Suppose 1 BTC = $100 and 1 share of Gigamining costs 1 BTC. Also suppose $600 could buy 1 Gh/s in mining equipment.. Then why the hell wouldn't the price of Giga adjust?
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2019
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Economy / Speculation / Re: 4th of July BTC Bubble?
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on: June 13, 2012, 05:45:06 AM
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There are those that believe a huge increase in demand for BTC occurs around major holidays due to SR users placing escrow orders to enjoy over the holiday. Do you think we'll see a BTC price spike approaching the 4th of July holiday? Discuss.
Maybe on a bigger holiday, don't get me wrong I like the 4th, but you can't buy beer with bitcoins. False??? http://bitcoin.travel/whiskey-dicks/I went there with bitcoins and I left with all my bitcoins. Sometimes they take them though. But I know I saw a beer store online at one point.
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2020
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Economy / Services / Re: Gigamining / Teramining
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on: June 13, 2012, 05:00:50 AM
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Why does (1) matter except for it's potential effects on (2)?
Imagine that 1 BTC = $100. How would you feel about 1.35 BTC for 5 Mh/s? Not so great, I'd reckon, since you would be FAR better off spending a few BTC on mining equipment of your own. Now imagine that 1 BTC = $0.10. Etc. Why not? (Because difficulty is way up, but that's all covered in (2))
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