Below you will find our Commentary on Recent Market Developments - Bitfinex | 4HR time interval

Market action on 15.02.15 provided a perfect example of why traders must follow a strict mentality than spend their time chasing tops/bottoms or reading irrelevant news.

Early in the morning, overall marketplace was on a buying frenzy mode and the infamous “to the moon” phrase was used for no apparent reason in most comment sections (blogs, news-feeds, etc).

After a series of unsuccessful attempts to sustain higher prices, market started correcting.

Suddenly the same sources blamed the reversal on news relating to three BTC exchanges being hacked and another three being attacked.

Unfortunately, the majority of the crypto community once more failed to realize that all this action was not news related.

In fact no serious trader builds a technique based on news other than pure fundamentals.

Market momentum was overextended for almost two days. Average 16 hour closing price at the highs was $257 with an estimated technical upper target set to $259. RSI was overbought for 28 hours, forming an protracted double top. MACD signal was wide, it normalized and finally reversed downwards. Moreover, Stochastic maintained a negative divergence along with every attempt for higher prices.



Read More: http://www.cryptoalerts.net/16-02-15-bitcoin-commentary/

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Overnight price action has triggered our long setup above $377 producing a beautiful and steady rally.

Next possible target $410 is getting close. If reached, models will be updated.

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Below you will find our Weekly Preview Report. It serves as a follow-up on the previous report we posted here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=852989.0

Price at Bitstamp Below Technical Resistance (issued on 10.11.14)

On the long side: The Upper 20MA BB at $377 serves as technical resistance. Price needs to overcome this level with good volume. A confirmed break above this point may increase the possibilities for reaching temporary resistance at approximately $391. If price manages to pierce through the latter with conviction, then the $410 upper target could be visited.

On the short side: The latest breakout from the $359-363 area serves as a temporary support. It is estimated that a breach below this level may possibly increase negative momentum, leading price to visit the $347 near term support or below.



Overall: All our model indicators have been aligned upwards, supporting the recent rally. This is quite healthy and may possibly support price to move even further. Only the Stochastic reveals signs of temporary exhaustion, but this is not yet worrisome, as the rally has been a bit quick, especially during the last two days. A good signal of continuation would be for the latter to remain elevated above the 80.00 area. Finally, any possible negative divergences shall be noted and not ignored.

Possible Scenarios:

Long Price Setup: On a confirmed break above $377 - Price Target $391
Neutral Price Range: $363-$377
Short Price Setup: On a confirmed break below $363 - Price Target $348

For regular updates and observations feel free to follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Cryptoalertsnet


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Check our weekly preview (issued on 03.11.14): http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2lddzd/bitcoin_weekly_report_follow_up_051114/

Our models estimate that price shall spent some time around this area.

A confirmed break above $359, will open the possibilities for reaching technical resistance at $377.

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Additionally below you will find our latest update (issued 08.11.14)

Quick Update | 1HR time interval

For the past 30 hours price has entered another consolidation mode.

On the long side: The Upper 20MA BB serves as a temporary overhead resistance at $345. A confirmed break above this point will possibly assist further upside to retest the $352-$353 area.

On the short side: Support is converging at approximately $341 where both the Lower 20MA BB and the 100MA meet. Our models estimate that a confirmation break below this area may increase the possibilities of reaching the 200MA near term support at $335.



Overall: After a rally to $353, price confirmed a throwback. This is not something unexpected as price usually needs to normalize after a breakout. Consolidation is confirmed by the diminishing volume and the flat RSI. MACD is in negative territory and a positive signal cross may assist upward movement. Finally, Stochastic has turned positive and assists price at the time of writing.

Possible Scenarios:

   Long Price Setup: On a confirmed break above $345 – Price Target $353
   Neutral: Price Range $340-$345
   Short Price Setup: On a confirmed break below $340 – Price Target $335


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Quick Update:

Temp 1HR Support at $341 Must Hold

Resistance at $348.




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Thank you for your comment.

However we have to disagree, as a "giant squeeze" will produce another unhealthy bubble.

Bitcoin needs orderly ascending prices and stability.

Thank you for your comment.

| Below you will find our weekly report (published on 27.10.14) |

***Week ends on the 2nd of November.

This is not a "prediction".

This is a WEEKLY PREVIEW that provides clear trade strategy setups.


The Cryptoalerts.net Team

Short Target has been reached.

We have closed 2/3 of the shorts.

Keeping 1/3 with break even stops @ $335, just in case it tests the Lower 200MA BB Currently @ $315 or below.

We will Re-Evaluate our models soon.

Hi everyone! Very intense price action since yesterday night. Below you will find our weekly report (published on 27.10.14)

Price on Bitstamp above the lower 200MA BB support | Daily time interval

On the long side: For the past four days, price has been ranging between approximately $347 and $358. In this small range, $358 has been acting as near term resistance (pink line). A confirmed break above at least $359 will increase the possibilities of price reaching the 20MA resistance area at $374 – $377 (yellow line). If by that time momentum improves, then it may assist prices to break above $377 and possibly test the upper 20MA BB resistance area at $404-$406.

On the short side: Price weakness has been evident. Important support has been identified around $339. This is actually the area, where on the 8th of October, the 5MA crossed the lower 100MA BB to the upside and produced the rally to $417. If price manages to break below the current range ($347-$358), then it is quite possible that $339 will be tested. Our models estimate that this support must not break. If it does so, it will dramatically increase the possibilities of reaching the lower 200MA BB support area at $320-$324 or further below.



Overall: Price has entered another sideways action and is still weak. Bollinger bands are very wide, except from the 20MA BB’s that have started to contract a bit. RSI is supportive, MACD is still in negative momentum territory and Stochastic is trying to enter the support zone <20.

Possible Scenarios:

Long:
First Target: On a confirmed break above $358 – Price Target $377
Second Target: On a confirmed break above $377 – Price Target $406

Neutral: Price Range $347-$358

Short:
First Target: On a confirmed break below $347 – Price Target $339
Second Target: On a confirmed break below $339 – Price Target $324

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The Cryptoalerts.net Team

Price on Bitstamp has been consolidating | 1hr time interval

For the past 36 hours, price on Bitstamp has been moving on a very narrow range, with an approximate average price value of $386.

Furthermore, since the top on the 14th of October, up to today, price has been forming a symmetrical triangle pattern. This is usually a sign of bullish continuation. Therefore, a closer look is required.

On the long side: Price must move out of the compressing $385-$388 zone that is between the 100MA support and 200MA resistance. If it finally decides to break to the upside, then $389 must be taken out with conviction. However, it must then pierce through the first resistance target, which is the 100MA Upper BB at $394.45. A break above this level will increase the odds for revisiting the 200MA Upper BB resistance at $405.

On the short side: A break below $381 will possibly lead price to test the 100MA Lower BB at $377. This is the first lower target and if it doesn’t hold, price may try to test the 200MA Lower BB at $372 or even lower.



Overall: Price has been stagnant. RSI has been offering positive support. MACD is on positive momentum, although, the recent bearish cross must fail in order to support a rally. Bollinger bands are compressing. Volume is decreasing, as it should before any breakout.

Outcome Probabilities:

Long: On a strong break above $389 – Max Price Target $405 | Probability: 39%
Neutral: Price Range $382-$388 | Probability: 34%
Short: On a strong break below $381 – Lower Price Target $372 | Probability: 27%

Our Stance: Waiting for a breakout to either direction.


For entry and exit levels regarding other exchanges please visit our website: www.Cryptoalerts.net  

© 2014 – Cryptoalerts.net

Thank you for your comment,

Updated and corrected... 

Possibly trying to prove nothing. The title reads Daily Support and Resistance Levels... and the chart just shows 6 resistance levels... one for every $3...

@PrestonTrader

Sorry but could you please elaborate? What you present is just a resistance level for every $3...

Are we missing something?

Two questions:
1. On what time interval?
2. What are your entry and exit points (where to buy / where to sell) ?

Early in the morning, our system has issued an alert:

Bitstamp 1HR

Long: On a strong break above $387 - 1HR 200MA | Actually $388 now since the average has moved up $1 | Max Target $405 | Probability of reaching max price: 30%

The setup has not been yet triggered

Bitstamp 1HR Time Interval

Price managed to breach the first hurdles of 50MA and 100MA resistances to the upside.

Now Bumping exactly @ the 200MA Resistance. Must Break Above to Enter Long Trade.




Our setup has been issued 4hrs ago @twitter :

Long: On a strong break above $387 (1HR 200MA) – Max Target $405 | Probability: 30% (has not triggered yet)


© 2014 – Cryptoalerts.net

Thank you. Sorry for that.

Depends on the quality of low volume though. Green (buying volume) bars need to surpass red (selling volume) bars both in height and quantity. Up to now, picture in small time intervals (30min, 60min, daily) is mixed whereas larger intervals (e.g daily) show a better quality.

@ask

Most recent instance of such indication was on the 7th of May 2014. After 4 candles and 12days of sideways movement, finally price broke up and produced a remarkable rally.

Now price is stuck under the 200MA strong resistance. A lot of buying power is needed to overcome this stage and smaller time intervals show triple resistances (especially in the 1HR time interval).




Moreover, as shown below, market conditions were completely different back then. Stochastic produced a bullish signal 3 days prior to MACD and SAR was supportive throughout the price consolidation phase.

Today price remains at overbought territory with the Stochastic indicating a possibility of producing another sell signal and SAR still indicating downward pressure.



Only a strong break above $387 will increase the odds of revisiting near $400 (1HR interval). If such price action happens we will re-evaluate.

The probability for this scenario to play out at this moment stands around 30%-35%.




The Cryptoalerts.net Team