It took ~4 years+- to reach 1163 (I). Probably looking at same timeframe or more to reach III. But all of this assumes that we are actually in a new Bull market. I would be cautious to mortgage your house to buy bitcoin. Although this rally is quite convincing its also what you might expect as a counter trend rally. What this rally has got going for it is the rather good volume. What is going against it is the bipolar world of central bank reflation on an even stronger deflationary backdrop.   

Bullish count:


But as always, for every bullish count there is an equally bearish one...

If i have understood correctly now:

The ABC correction up from 198 retraced only 38.2% of the entire wave. Its totally allowed to retrace to 61.8% (and more) (Around 270).

So basically the market is in a nice juncture where the bulls and the bears are fighting it out.

If the price breaks the trend line upwards you are going to see a massive short position unwind.
If the price breaks the trend line downwards you are going to see a massive long position unwind.

There is a lot of future contracts bought to bet on that pivot, expecting a violent move which ever way it goes.

Since my last count was the ultra bearish one i have tried to create a valid bull count too.

At first sight it looks difficult to create a bullish count from the current situation but there is actually a very compelling case.

I think it is more or less certain that we are going to have a revisit ~190 no matter what happens, bull or bear. What happens when it hits the 195-190 level is on the other hand very uncertain.

In my bear count the price should traverse 190 almost like air and fall further, maybe towards 140-160 before correcting, maybe even further. In my bull count it should bounce on the trendline from the expanding triangle like it was a million degrees hot and explode into an extremely violent 5th wave. Impulses should be easy to count in this case.

Bull case:


We are nearing a junction if i ever saw one. The main uncertainty as i see it is if 152 was A, 3 or C.

Just to clarify one big mistake in my wave count: After 317 top, 4. Wave 3 downwards to 5 is complete, the ABC correction upwards from 198 is to 4. A perfect 0.382 retrace.

So the end of 5 will be more shallow than i first thought. maybe just under a double bottom from 153.

If its C in the end there future will tell.

It just occurred to me that there is a third alternative which is much less bearish, at least when it comes to time. I will create an image later but basically if we mix my count and master lucs into one we got a third option. Master Lucs A is correct (where my 1 is), but he mislabeled his C and i'm right that its a 3.
That means that we are actually on the way to C now in a 5 wave move down from B. That would mean that C would be reached around december / january.

It would also mean, like you point out, that the bear market would have lasted 2 years or 24 months. The 5 wave rise to 1163 took more or less 39 months. 39 x 0.618 = 24.1.

One more thing that points towards this count is the shape of the last wave 2. The fall from 32 to 2.2 has similarities to the current wave 2. That correction ended in a swift double bottom. The current shape and count could easily mimic that correction.

There is no way of knowing which count is correct for sure until we reach the next bottom and see which way the impulses point afterwards.

I will try to see how low it can possibly go without invalidating the entire wavecount. But maybe A and C would be a double bottom or very close. I dont think there is so much room downward under 70 before it would invalidate. I have to sleep now but i can try tomorrow to make a guesstimate on tima and amplitude of C.

You better believe it. The fear, anger, frustration, resignation, capitulation associated with a C was never present in the 150 low. The entire affair passed without triggering nothing more than a 'meh'. The mood for wave A is described as:

Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves (no kidding!). In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market.

I think that is a very fitting description of current sentiment and sentiment all the way from 1163

1. Even with extensions i think the timeframe is resonable.
2. If B is a standard ZigZag it should retrace 38.2 or 61.8% of Wave A. Expect a violent rally upwards in the range of 450 to 650 or around there.

1163 was Historical I. Master luc propose that his C was Historical II and that we are rising now to Historical III.
Im saying more or less the exact opposite, we are still headed down towards Historical II

I think the assumption that the 152 bottom was C is flawed.

The 152 bottom was wave 3. The correction up to 317 was corrective up to wave 4. The correction was not a standard Zigzag because wave 2 was a Zigzag, rule of alternation. So from 152 to 317 it was a Flat correction. 3-3-5 pattern. The 309 top was A, 210 bottom was B and from 210 to 317 was C. The pudding here is that the rise from 210 to 317 was an impulse, that is how a Flat 3-3-5 pattern looks like. It fooled everyone into believing that the bull market had resumed. Sprinkle with breaking the downward trend line from 1163 and hopium was blinding everyone.

After the 4 top was reached the price immediately resumed falling. We are on wave 2 of 5 down to A!

Minor Wave 1 brought us through the trendline of the 4 correction. Minor wave 2 retested the trendine from below and was rejected. It has since fallen minuette wave 1 and 2 is soon finished correcting upwards.

If this is correct we are extremely close to starting wave 3 of wave 3 down towards 5 and A.

Just look at the pattern from my proposed 4. Everything going down from 4 to Minor 1 = impulse waves, everything going up = corrective.

The bear market is in full swing.

Price targets for 5/A are less than 152, more than 65.

Ive made an image that explains my view in more detail:

Out of short term downtrend?

I have to say that your line looks quite different in log space.

My biggest worry is not not having enough coins if the price reaches 2000 but not having enough cash if the price reaches 50. I share your sentiment.

I found this comment on Reddit to be quite thought provoking regarding block size. It brought a perspective i never though about.

https://np.reddit.com/r/bitcoinxt/comments/3hyb1l/it_seems_like_theres_a_nonetrivial_number_of/cuc4hj6


 

Greed will make some participants buy and hold. This removes coins from circulation. This increases the purchasing power of the coins in circulation and acts as a no-interest / negative interest loan to the people actually using bitcoin as currency. This zero interest loan will increase actual use. The more people that use bitcoin as currency drives the price upwards which will again increase the number of buy and hold speculators.

This positive feedback loop functioned nicely for some time, to some extend it still does but the speculative part of the bitcoin economy grew even faster than the actual. The speculation has completely overtaken the underlying usage economy, at least this is my sentiment. In one way or another it seems like this needs some kind of rebalancing so there is some kind of reasonable ratio between pure speculation and actual use. If bitcoins price and volume is 99% derived from speculation the price can, and will, fluctuate infinitely. Add 0% interest in the national currencies to the mix and speculative bitcoin positions can be leveraged greatly creating even more violent fluctuations in the price. Some fluctuations are OK, we live with these fluctuations in the national currencies too. But when you see double digit percentage movements up and down on a regular bases its bound to throw people off. The very people bitcoin should tender to, the unbanked and underbanked can't live with such fluctuations for their savings and they are consequently not going to use bitcoin. If this is not sorted colored coins and sidechains can take over. They can provide the stability that normal users desire. The price of bitcoin can reduce to the cost+profit miners want to provide the security for the colored coins and side chains. This can be substantially lower than today.

Something needs to give so that actual use increases greatly, its the only way the price will increase.

The situation today is that most of bitcoins price is derived from a bet on a future where actual use is sky high and general adoption is high. The very fluctuations and valuations this bet creates is preventing that future from manifesting itself. I think the price will continue to fall until a point where future bitcoin plays on the same ballpark as the present bitcoin so that present usage can explode. Either that or actual use catches up to speculation.

masterluc:

Do you assume the 152 bottom was C?

From 0 to 1150 bitcoin was an endless source of impulse waves and pretty nice ABC / wedge corrections. Sure, it wasn't easy to get the wave count correct but you could clearly recognize impulse waves everywhere at all scales. There was a reason you could call the top with some confidence.

After 1150 its just an ocean of corrective waves as far as i can see. If 152 was C it would be reasonable to expect that the corrective waves would be replaced by impulse waves. Look at the run up to 317, that is not a pretty sight.

And look at the recovery from the 198 low now, a rally like that should be a symphony of impulse waves that iterated nicely, but its not, its just corrective waves and zigzags.

What is your take on this?



 

I agree, I just pointed out the most bullish case. But it is just as likely its a pennant and a continuation pattern, the volume supports this as well. If this is the case the price movement would likely take us back below the long trendline. The price would likely decline substantially. Its an interesting junction.

Im going to go out on a limb here and say that this is whats going on:



On the other hand, there are no quadruple bottoms.

Suggest sitting on sell button if it crosses the trend line downwards and on the leveraged buy if it breaks the tripple bottom pattern upwards.

Any chance of an indication in the 'my account' screen if the miner for the specific machine is up do date or not?