I’m back!

I’ll continue with TA shortly!

Long Live Bitcoin!

Glad to help, and I am glad you read my posts lol ...

Like with any investment, do not go all the way in unless you can handle a 25% drop of your investment. With Bitcoin that may be a 30%.

Always cash out when you gut feeling tells you and there is nothing wrong with securing profits.

I'll keep posting more charts and thought on this.

Hi Arsenal, I have been out for a while, but you are probably now aware that the coin has had a huge rally these past days after a huger drop.

So yeah, 200 was a hard bottom, it wen trough it but regained almost immediately.

I wouldn't say we are out of the woods yet as this could be another pump.

ON a Technical, the coin is now testing the Moving Averages, if it conquers we may see a nice support there.

Also, based on pure TA, the price action broke my falling wedge hard, going through 200 like nothing, and regained it hard too. On my first post I mentioned that these falling wedges brake down or up hard... and we just saw that a few days ago. Now, it would be interesting to see if the coin brakes the upper wedge line (green line) and if it brakes it hard, where would it takes us.

I still hold my coins now, and not really looking into trading but finding bottoms to pick up some. I was out for a few days and didn't buy any below 200, but I may buy some if the price action brakes my upper green line.

Have a look at the price TA I have been doing. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=869082.0

We are in a very strong falling wedge with no real attempt to break up. There will be bumps along the road where traders can make some money. But like someone mentioned here, big money has shifted from bullish to bearish making money on Shorts or Puts.

Eventually, we will see these same players going into Calls and creating long bullish positions. And with the coins being harder to mine, you will see a bigger rally. And rinse and repeat.

Someone else mentioned that Microsoft and other big companies are accepting Bitcoin and that for that reason it will never die. I think they are just targeting a audience, and it doesn't mean they believe in the coin.


The true value of the coin is not it's price. Have and hold one or two or five coins now. And thank the Blockchain later in 5-10 years. Yes, Five to Ten years.

Very nice, thanks for sharing some data and actual facts.

The golden crosses have appeared but short lived as you can see on my charts takes following Bitstamp prices.

I agree with you that now would not be the right time to buy bitcoin based on the charts and historical data.

I wouldn't discourage traders to hop in and ride this short lived rallies which can be very profitable even on a down turn.. 7% returns in a day etc.

Back on the first post I compared this period we are in to the period lived in 2013 where we saw a huge rally followed by a huge decline.


Well, this has been broken badly so we can forget about a phoenix revival like the one on 2013.

But since we are talking of historical trends here, the percentage drop of the coin back in 2013 was roughly 78%... which is around the percentage drop we have experience in 2014...

Based on this last sentence, why wouldn't an investor taking a risk here at these levels...

Cheers

Well, if you are still against Technical Analysis on Bitcoin, well, take a look again.

The Blue support line was a strong line that if broken would make Bitcoin fall hard. And yes, it did brake, and yes Bitcoin did drop in price... Hard. See the Shite Skinny Arrow.

Being such  strong support, Bitcoin lingered around it undecided finding buyers at these levels but once these buyers were gone, then the price collapsed.

So where do we go from here? The next line is $240, yup, that far down but only a few dollars away. But my guess is that we go far down below even more. To touch the green line part of the falling wedge.

On my first post I described the two scenarios, a Pennant and a Falling Wedge. We are back on the Falling Wedge.

Note: None of the lines below have been adjusted since the first post. I have only added lines and traces as we go.

Cheers

Yesterday Bitcoin struggled to keep itself above the Blue Line, today it has finally caved and went through it.

What does it mean? We may visit prices as low as $305 pretty soon.

The confirmation would be a close of the day below the blue line, with MACD gapping.

The Blue Line is a very strong support line. In order for Bitcoin to rally, we need to see a price action able this line with positive SAR points.

I have been out a few days due to the holidays, but I'm back and see that the lines and predictions still hold.

The blue line is still intact and it is becoming much stronger.

I mentioned that any playing around the blue line is an alarm to Buy Bitcoin and I still think this holds. At these prices I will place and order myself through CoinBase.

At this point we are getting positive SAR points which indicates positive move. If you can risk a little I would buy right here right now. If you are looking for buying Bitcoin to use it for purchasing goods, then I would suggest to wait to see how the price resolves in the next day or so.

Do you remember the Red Line? and how I predicted a huge price action on December 12th, well that did happened exactly on that day and Bitcoin crushed that support level (Thumb down icon in the chart) and now it finds itself testing the long time support, the Blue Line.

In the hour chart, you can see how clearly Bitcoin price has been crushed in every attempt to send prices higher. Someone is unloading big and someone really wants Bitcoin price at these levels or lower. But the fact that Bitcoin finds strong buyers picking up the cheap coins lead me to believe there is very strong support. And the coins are leaving the weak hands for stronger long term hands which is good for the whole bitcoin ecosystem.

I have no idea... but please elaborate a little more if you know the subject.

What I do know is that ASIC miners started to "decentralize" the network (if I understand correctly) and the recent price action has helped this method for mining but we may be heading towards a break point where price and difficulty levels may give the advantage to powerful miners that are already setup, as opposed to new miners coming in and having to invest heavily now.

Amazing how these predictions made on Nov 23 still hold.

I highlight two take aways...

Take a look at the last paragraph and do some analysis on your own. Think of any great catalysts (Russia recession, Europe stagnation, all the QE's happening around the world, Gold, etc.) These may be the great push for another rally.

You think BTC has never experiences drops, and near death experiences? it has always had them. Think about BTC at $0.05 USD prices... they too believed a jump to $1 was incredible. You think BTC can't jump 20X again? Think again.

As always, and always, be careful, mindful and respectful of BTC.

The fact that it went right through the traced line at 0.764 get me a little worried.

I may have to go back and understand what happened that day, anything on the news that may have drove a panic sell.

I wouldn't worry to much though, BTC has broken the lines before just to go right back to it like a magnet.

I would BUY right here if not done so already.

I'll place an order on my CoinBase today.

BTC may go back to touch the blue trend line in the next days but the trend remains intact and is very powerful. So I expect to trend up with it and to go back to $340 and head a little higher.

I can now safely say that overtime BTC price touches my blue trend line, you should BUY. And Sell above the $340 price if you think the rally is fading.

Also, I believe that first thing January or half way through the month we will see a clear indication of where Bitcoin will head for the rest of the year.

The power of the lines!

BTC bounced off a long term trend traced since the beginning of this post.

Vey bullish.

We need a positive SAR to confirm the rally up to $340.

If you still doubt the power of Technical analysis, well, there is nothing I cans how you to make you change your mind.

Note: None of the traced lines have been changed or adjusted since the beginning of this post. Only new lines have been created and never moved.

1) So there it is, the drop to $300s on the 13th, the "big dip" called on Dec 16th and the Support lines created since the start and called for on the 17th have been spot on.

2) As I mentioned before, wait for a great time to buy Bitcoin, and this should be it. Just give it another day for price action confirmation.

What to watch:

$305 heavy support
Blue line heavy support
$320 now a resistance
$340 a huge resistance that will only break with heavy volume or else won't hold

The Bull
MACD trying to curve up.
RSI at completely oversold condition.
Stock still showing a down trend which is healthy for a rally.
Long term support completely alive.

The Bear
If the support line does not hold. We are in big big trouble.

As predicted, the fib line at .764 was violated so we see this price action.

BTC could test $305 or lower, but should maintain the blue line trend up.

Some investors need to cover their losses elsewhere so they have to sell whatever they can to cover.

Think about it, perhaps this person or group bought Bitcoins at $100... so to them $300 is a huge profit taking.

BTC must hold the fib retracement of 0.764 @ $340.77 in order to move up in the near term.

The news of Microsoft beginning to accept the coin for game payments should help. I believe the coin will take a relatively big dip sometime in the next week or so. Then it will rally over the 100 MA.

Don't ever doubt the power of the lines!

I think most people here have pretty good advices and understand the general idea.

First, let me add something not discussed. You can also make money on a collapsing market. It doesn't need to go up to make money. Google "Short Stocks". Traders make money all the time on plunging stocks and markets. Every day.

Second, why wouldn't you want to invest in oil?! Some really good companies are at their 5 year lows including oil itself. Why wouldn't you buy at rock bottom prices? Because the world is coming to an end and oil will never be used ever again?

At the time of this post, I have not seen or heard of new technology that will take over the oil kingdom. Oil is not dead, it is beaten to the ground, and it may head to low 50s or 40s. That's fine. When you invest in oil, you want to get on the low cycle. Make $100k from $10k in 5 years.

cutesakura/aronnov,

Precisely, that is how pretty much any market works (buy/sell to price interaction) and without regulation like you said, well, this is what we get. A random price action and high volatility.

But regulation (centralization) is what we really want to avoid with Bitcoin. Right?

Although some kind of regulation exists within the Bitcoin universe. Satoshi, the Winklevoss brothers, among others, hold huge bags of coins. Any of them decide to drop their bags and we will see the market collapse. Why aren't they selling? Because they may be all together in this. So a small group that holds the majority of the goods is basically a controlled environment.

Trying to figure out the above is beyond any of us, we can only provide our thoughts and ideas. Which is also good, makes us smarter.

Ultimately, what I am trying to prove here is that Bitcoin does follow some of the rules of the trading market. The reason? Well, because it is traded.

BootstrapCoinDev,

Agreed, it could have gone either way... Closing above 100 MA for any stock and bitcoin is such an accomplishment. But Like I said before, it also calls for people to cash profits.

Bitcoin Update

Ok, I think I will pad myself on the back. The lines I have created since the start of the post have remained and have predicted the price of Bitcoin very closely. (The lines have not changed since the beginning of the post.)

Pink Vertical Line on December 8th. I traced this day while back based on previous support lines and a trend line (red). Bitcoin was supposed to keep the line intact but it broke down exactly on December 8th.

Trace line at 0.764 ($340.77). Bitcoin broke the up trend but bounced hard off this line maintaining the support line. Which now has become a very strong line at $340.

Now, some follow up predictions: If Bitcoin brakes down through $340, we will see a test of the low $300s and possibly high $290s towards the end of December. On a bullish scenario, Bitcoin may try to go back to above the 100 MA which means a $360 price.

BTC bounced at around $343 but the red support trend line was broken badly.

Soft support at $350... but it may not hold.

The coin now looks like is heading down. I believe it will play around $340 before deciding on the next move.