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963
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Economy / Speculation / Re: rally got goxxed again
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on: July 23, 2012, 12:51:55 PM
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hmm, i got disconnected. and all my orders were set to "pending" and i couldn't cancel them. is there any way to trade on mtgox exchange without using their website?
classic.mtgox.com always seems to work better for me when the main site starts to lag. Also the android app as a last resort. Ha, didn't know that was there. Memory lane. When I went there it seemed like it was August '11 again. |
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966
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Guesses on when we'll break $10
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on: July 22, 2012, 03:47:39 AM
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Have'n a beer watching the game  10$ will either appear next week, or in 4 months I think its very likely we will be seeing a short term down trend from here. much like 7.20 to 5, this time the 9.50 high will stabilize at 7$ 8$ but in the long term and mid term bitcoin is defiantly going for a never ending bull run. Its not unreasonable to think an EXTREME price correction on the up side will happen in the next few years, it really wouldn't take much to set off the bomb that is bitcoin For consistency a correction like from 7.2 to 5 would be either 6.6 for a relative calculation or 7.3 for absolute. Actually, using the start and end of the rally and a relative calculation: 10^(((log(5)-log(2))/(log(7.22)-log(2)))*(log(9.7)-log(5)) + log(5)) = 8.02 10^(((log(3.87)-log(2))/(log(7.22)-log(2)))*(log(9.7)-log(5)) + log(5)) = 7.03 If things go the same way, we will sustain a crash to 7 but stabilize at 8. That is if 9.7 is the high for this rally, which I very much doubt! |
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969
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker
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on: July 21, 2012, 06:55:19 PM
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It's hard to say what exactly is going on here, but it sort of looks like there's a fight going on between one person who tried to induce panic selling and another person who tried to induce panic buying.
I really should bring out that "charge" picture again... |
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970
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Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Flash Crash on Mt.Gox today?
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on: July 20, 2012, 06:43:09 PM
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There was a brief crash today from 8.58 down to 8.22 then immediately back to 8.52 within single digit seconds.
Result: Clark moody promptly died, btccharts stopped ticking, Mt. Gox went unresponsive for the duration, and bitcointalk went down for a minute or less.
Someone bought several thousand bitcoins at (up to) 0.36 USD below market on Mt.Gox. Can someone explain this anomaly?
I'm not the first time I've noticed that all services are falling at one moment. This is all under one organization? What the hell? Puppeteer has the ability to pull the strings all at once? Lol, they all get their info from Gox because that's where the info is made, no conspiracy, relax. The out of range price is because Gox doesn't have good matching software, it's been happening for 2 years. That's reassuring... |
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972
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Economy / Speculation / Guesses on when we'll break $10
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on: July 20, 2012, 02:05:38 PM
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Third time's the charm? Perhaps after recovering from this dump (which is not impossible, given that we recovered from the dump from 9.5 to 7.3) we will finally break $10.
What do you think? This month, or is 9.49 the 2012 high?
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973
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Crash!!!!
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on: July 20, 2012, 12:47:35 AM
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Quick! Everyone out of the pool.
it really takes a special kind of person to cheer the bears on while holding coins  |
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974
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Crash!!!!
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on: July 20, 2012, 12:03:20 AM
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Maybe we'll finally test $6 and then $5 again.  lol, denial... such a durable feeling |
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975
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Economy / Speculation / A surprising chart
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on: July 19, 2012, 09:06:47 PM
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 .... makes your eyes bulge, doesn't it? Until you realize. Goes to show how little depth there is on alternative (non-Gox) exchanges. Will Gox always be able to use their firstcomer's advantage to squash the competition? :\ |
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976
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Economy / Speculation / Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees
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on: July 19, 2012, 02:42:12 AM
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This thought experiment is probably full of some large holes, but just as an evening diversion I thought I'd throw this in here. Western Union made $1.16 Billion on transfer fees in 2011. $1,160,000,000One percent of that figure is: $11,600,000Total number of BTC that represents at a current market price of 9.14 is: ~1,269,146That number is about 13.38% of total Bitcoins in circulation.Now, looking at mtGox's order book: http://mtgoxlive.com/ordersAt the time of this posting it would take $432,281 to reach the price of 10.93Now, the 'big leap' - if we can assume that same dollar amount for every +$1.79 of price movement (offers consistently appear) then: $11.6 million divided by $432,281 = 26.834 multiples of $1.79 rise in price, so the final price is: 26.834 * $1.79 = 48.03357Current price 9.14 + 48.03357 = 57.17357And now, this is where you say 'no offers will come' and 'we won't get 1% of international wire transfers'. Still, interesting based on some really small figures from the real world, wouldn't you agree? This is the 1000th time I've seen a thread saying, "if Bitcoin were to capture Herp industry and Derp fees and Hurr business, one bitcoin would be worth $10000000000000000." I've got a constructive recommendation: perhaps we should move all of these threads of the same form into a megathread, titled "Price Scenarios" or something. |
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