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1  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Choose: Walk The Plank or Keelhaul on: July 25, 2012, 04:38:29 PM
I'm the one who was "claiming to have slept with his sister", but that was a long-running joke and who the hell thought that was anything but humor? He's openly admitted (on IRC at least) that he doesn't even have a sister. Please tell me: who has actually, seriously claimed to have met him?
Far too many people. Enough for you to have qualified for a scammer tag when this all collapsed and you proved not to actually know his identity.

You just lost all credibility.

Yeah, I'm through with this forum. There is no place for level-headed and informed commentary here. Enjoy the circlejerks and name-calling.
2  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Choose: Walk The Plank or Keelhaul on: July 25, 2012, 02:22:31 PM
There are many people who say that they've met him/slept with his sister and claim that it's trivial to identify him, but I highly suspect that they were either lying for their own purposes, were paid off by Pirate, or misled by Pirate - potentially a professional conman - with fraudulent documents, or a combination of all three (i.e. they were willing to say they met him after they saw the documents and Pirate paid them to make it sound like they know Pirate more than they really do).

ಠ_ಠ. In other news, McMaged suspects you (yes, you!) of secretly being a pedophile who tortures children for fun. Prove him wrong!

But seriously, did you really just say that? I'm the one who was "claiming to have slept with his sister", but that was a long-running joke and who the hell thought that was anything but humor? He's openly admitted (on IRC at least) that he doesn't even have a sister. Please tell me: who has actually, seriously claimed to have met him? The paranoia here borders on a full-fledged witch hunt, wherein you (and many others) see anyone who criticizes the weak arguments you have against him as being paid off by him or dishonest. That is ridiculous. If he admitted to me he was a Ponzi, or I had serious doubts about his honesty, I would not be lending him money. I may be stupid for trusting him, but I'm not dishonest, and I don't see why you'd assume his other lenders are either.

Now, step back a moment. Consider the evidence you have against him. Yes, his claimed returns are unrealistic. Yes, it "looks like a Ponzi", and it may well be one (I've openly admitted this in all my "rebuttals" of people's weak arguments against him). Now consider what it would take to convince you otherwise. If this were anywhere but a pseudonymous internet, would you go around telling people it was a Ponzi? No, of course not, because you'd probably get sued for defamation/slander/libel (whichever one is relevant to the particular flavor you're going for), and you'd actually have to do this face-to-face, which takes something more than an internet tough-guy persona. Now, because this is a forum and everyone loves to be opinionated, right, and rides the highest horse in town ("I'm doing it for the good of Bitcoin itself! No cognitive dissonance here at all!"), anyone remotely associated with him is out to screw everyone else?

Get a grip, all of you.
3  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Choose: Walk The Plank or Keelhaul on: July 25, 2012, 03:55:37 AM
Not entirely baseless. Read the article, especially the "Red flags" portion. If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and waddles like a duck, it's not a platypus.

Yeah, probably one of these:

4  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Choose: Walk The Plank or Keelhaul on: July 24, 2012, 09:38:00 PM
is the wager money in escrow? if not this has to rank as the worst bet i have ever seen someone make (Vandroiys)..

Yes, it is.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: How will this mtgox screw-up effect the price? on: July 21, 2012, 07:44:50 AM
I think it will make some big investors lose faith in bitcoin and there will be a massive dump as soon as they come online. I really don't want to stay up all night to wait for them to come online so i can sell all my coins Sad   

any thoughts?

Not to be an asshole, but can you change the subject to say "affect" instead of "effect"? Tongue
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: How will this mtgox screw-up effect the price? on: July 21, 2012, 06:32:26 AM
I thought this was the usual mtgox tripwire that freezes the trading engine when big orders hit it, but it turns out the trade engine is actually in a loop, relaying the same big transaction over and over again with new timestamps and new transaction IDs (if you run your own socket.io client, you can see this). The thing climbs from 8.79 to 9.30 (~30k btc) and then snaps back to 8.79 and does it again, over and over again.

A bit disturbing, as always.
7  Economy / Services / Re: Looking for someone to create/modify software for this forum [3000+ BTC] on: July 21, 2012, 02:43:15 AM
Quote
Quote from: Icoin on July 18, 2012, 09:37:58 AM
BTW
The Bitcoin Development Team allready use REDMINE
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80019.0
why the guys have to pay for a service at bettermeans.com when they could have the same tools on bitcointalk avalable for free?
Not to discourage you or anything, but the development actually uses GitHub's issue tracker. The thread you linked is for the testing project.

You are right.Thanks for correcting me.
I suggest this plugin:
Github Hook Allow your Redmine installation to be notified when changes have been pushed to a Github repository.

I still don't really understand what Redmine has to do with a forum reimplementation. Do you mean to manage the development process?
8  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Shedding a little light on: July 16, 2012, 05:38:05 AM
A csv with timestamps + balance would be neat to make a cool chart. Damn, now I really need to set up Ubuntu to get your thingie running... Cheesy

Your wish has come true.
Latest git has csv output for transactions:

Code:
./parser closure 1PSf86KnLuzM7Ris5kDhTEZwooR3p2iyfV > PIRATE-CLOSURE
./parser transactions --csv file:PIRATE-CLOSURE  > PIRATE-CLOSURE-TX.csv

Here's what it looks like when you graph it :


Well, at least he still seems to be able to get rid of huge blocks of BTC at once...

Next step should be imho to do the following:
Create clusters out of all addresses where money from or to pirate was transmitted, then write the complete sums as incoming/outgoing to each of them.

Example:
Cluster 1: Sent 1500 to pirate, received 170 from pirate (addresses: 1bitcoinaddress1234, ...)
Cluster 2: Sent 10000 to pirates, received 1337 from pirate (addresses: 1otheraddress1234, ...)

Then it would be apparent (maybe) if there's a cluster (or several clusters) where a lot of funds from pirate are going to and/or coming from.

Easier said than done.

I'd need "seed addresses" for each cluster.

So far, the only address I have that is known to belong to pirate
is this one because he himself confirmed that he controls it.


Wouldn't a brute-forcey way to do this be to take every output from all transactions out of the known pirate cluster and try to build clusters of those, too? Each output from pirate's cluster can get the znort treatment to build pseudo-wallets, and then you could make another pass to tally up total movements between all the clusters you care about. Feed into graphviz, make directed arrows between clusters with thickness dependent on how much total movement went in that direction, and make the cluster (visual) size proportional to total balance in the cluster at the end of the period. For extra points, animate this over time with edge thickness showing an exponential weighted average, and cluster size being instantaneous total coins.

Unfortunately, the computational complexity of running your algorithm once for each output sounds prohibitive, so we probably need a smarter approach Smiley

P.S: I still haven't had a chance to play with the union-find approach to building clusters. If we wanted to apply the idea to this multi-cluster problem, we'd probably want to store the data on disk somewhere, both for easier access and to avoid eating someone's RAM. Luckily, the union-find structure is pretty trivial to implement in a database, if you don't mind an additional logarithmic factor in the lookup (which some might argue you're getting anyway when dereferencing pointers in memory).
9  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Shedding a little light on: July 15, 2012, 07:25:18 AM
Why don't we base our economy of of the actual resources of the earth as opposed to an idea called money.

Other than an appeal to nature, why are "the actual resources of the earth" more desirable than the alternative?
10  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is. on: July 14, 2012, 05:38:12 PM
It ISN'T the only argument just because you haven't thought of the others.

Haven't you heard of the powerful proof technique called reductio ad absentiam imaginationis? Trust me, I'm a proof theorist and mathematical logician.
11  Other / Off-topic / Re: Post your GPA & IQ score. on: July 14, 2012, 06:11:23 AM
I believe IQ's are just for gauging your ability to solve problems.

I'm pretty sure the main purpose about IQ tests is to be able to tell other people what your score was. They might also serve the secondary purpose of getting you into Mensa, which has the related goal of letting you tell people you're in Mensa.
12  Other / Off-topic / Re: Post your GPA & IQ score. on: July 13, 2012, 09:14:56 PM

Oh shit, reeses brings up a good point. What was everyone's SAT score? Cause that's clearly the most important bit. I'll start: mine was 2460.

Do you recall what percentile that was? I recall my national %tile but not my score..  Yours sounds high though, likely 95% or higher, right?

Oh yeah, way above 99th.
13  Other / Off-topic / Re: Post your GPA & IQ score. on: July 13, 2012, 08:58:09 PM
Only people of average intelligence think IQ scores are meaningless.  Anyone with an IQ below 60 or above 140 knows exactly what that number implies.

and anyone not lacking a Mensa card knows that discussing it on a bitcoin forum is pretty much a waste of time.

I think of MENSA members as people who just barely finished a 5k and wear the cheap tshirt everywhere to show that they did it.

If I remember correctly, you could get into MENSA with a pre-inflation SAT score of 1300 or so.1



1.Oh yeah, I know exactly what I did there.  Kiss

Oh shit, reeses brings up a good point. What was everyone's SAT score? Cause that's clearly the most important bit. I'll start: mine was 2460.
14  Other / Off-topic / Re: Post your GPA score. on: July 13, 2012, 08:45:51 PM
I don't do homework, I study for exams the class before them, and I get mostly Cs. There's just so much more to learn outside of school, so you have to choose.

My penis is way longer than all of y'all's.
15  Other / Meta / Missing avatar? on: July 13, 2012, 03:22:35 PM
Look at my missing avatar! If I try to view the URL directly (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=6514;type=avatar) I get a "Be back soon" page Sad

Edit: Nevermind, it loaded now. Must've been cached or something.
16  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is. on: July 11, 2012, 01:20:56 PM
Why is it so hard for people to believe that loans can be made for 1% per day or even much higher ?

www.wonga.com

They say they 'only' charge 1% a day so 'only' 365% per year but the govt makes them display the APR (compounded interest); a whopping 4214% per year

A company offering loans is totally different than someone asking for loans. Obviously, their profit is limited by the number of borrowers they can find (it doesn't scale with the amount of capital they have). Which is another sign that pirates a ponzi: there are lots of lenders but no borrowers. If there are no borrowers, nobody is paying the interest..

Oh man, who knew that all those companies issuing corporate bonds with no borrowers of their own were Ponzis?? This will be the next major financial scandal of the century! The entire fixed income market (way larger than the equity market!) is the largest Ponzi in history. Madoff should hang his head in shame.
17  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is. on: July 10, 2012, 02:40:13 PM
hey Vandroiy, can i ask why you are not hedging your bet?? 66BTC at 65 weeks is all it would take...
seems rather illogical not to.

No. I'm clear on my stance, my BS&T exposure is and remains zero.

It's illogical for the same reason you don't play the Ponzi in the first place. No half-assed nonsense on my part.

If your certainty about him being a Ponzi is anything less than 100% (and you said it was 98% last time I asked you), it isn't necessarily illogical to hedge. To be really simplistic about it, you think that there's a 1/50 chance you'll lose 5000 btc and and a 49/50 chance you'll get 10000. Simple expected value will value your "bet portfolio" at 9700 btc at maturity, but your one-year 2% value at risk is 0. Both of those could improve, depending on your model of his default probabilities over time, if you were willing to hedge Smiley



So basically, "DAMMIT THE PONZI IS COLLAPSING AND I NEED YOU TO DEPOSIT YOUR MONEY INTO IT, OTHERWISE I CAN'T GET MINE OUT".
18  Economy / Securities / Re: Other People getting PMs from Vandroiy Discouraging Investment in BS&T? on: July 10, 2012, 02:31:48 PM
I got a personal message from user Vandroiy trying to discourage me from keeping my investment in Bitcoin Savings & Trust (Pirate).
Are other people getting PMs like this too?

Vandroiy is entitled to his opinions, but spamming strangers seems to be pushing it a bit.
19  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is. on: July 09, 2012, 09:30:01 PM
To explain this anomaly, let us begin with introducing Dirac notation so I can be in a state |typing> ... okok I just got the "new post" warning after I tabbed out. Embarrassed

We need another re-railing post. Groundbreaking theories on BS&T, anyone?

We found his island and it contained conclusive proof of his Ponziness. You might as well just get the money from nanotube right now.
20  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is. on: July 09, 2012, 08:29:24 PM
Well, now at least we have a better idea of where the pirate island is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_colors_of_national_flags#Red.2C_green_and_yellow

Given the order of the colors, I'm going to guess Bolivia or Guinea, but since Bolivia is landlocked, it's gotta be off the coast of Guinea. That means that the island is most likely part of the Cape Verde archipelago.



Conspicuous cloud cover, as is often used to obscure intelligence and military installations.  Pablo Escobandodo himself used the same mechanism thanks to his contacts supporting him from the NSA, CIA, and NRA.

Good work tracking him down. This is typical Ponzi behavior. After evidence like this, he'd be a fool to keep denying it! If you look closely at and enhance the pixels, you can even see that it says "Ponzi Island" on one of the beaches.
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