Yeah, I'm through with this forum. There is no place for level-headed and informed commentary here. Enjoy the circlejerks and name-calling.

ಠ_ಠ. In other news, McMaged suspects you (yes, you!) of secretly being a pedophile who tortures children for fun. Prove him wrong!

But seriously, did you really just say that? I'm the one who was "claiming to have slept with his sister", but that was a long-running joke and who the hell thought that was anything but humor? He's openly admitted (on IRC at least) that he doesn't even have a sister. Please tell me: who has actually, seriously claimed to have met him? The paranoia here borders on a full-fledged witch hunt, wherein you (and many others) see anyone who criticizes the weak arguments you have against him as being paid off by him or dishonest. That is ridiculous. If he admitted to me he was a Ponzi, or I had serious doubts about his honesty, I would not be lending him money. I may be stupid for trusting him, but I'm not dishonest, and I don't see why you'd assume his other lenders are either.

Now, step back a moment. Consider the evidence you have against him. Yes, his claimed returns are unrealistic. Yes, it "looks like a Ponzi", and it may well be one (I've openly admitted this in all my "rebuttals" of people's weak arguments against him). Now consider what it would take to convince you otherwise. If this were anywhere but a pseudonymous internet, would you go around telling people it was a Ponzi? No, of course not, because you'd probably get sued for defamation/slander/libel (whichever one is relevant to the particular flavor you're going for), and you'd actually have to do this face-to-face, which takes something more than an internet tough-guy persona. Now, because this is a forum and everyone loves to be opinionated, right, and rides the highest horse in town ("I'm doing it for the good of Bitcoin itself! No cognitive dissonance here at all!"), anyone remotely associated with him is out to screw everyone else?

Get a grip, all of you.

Yeah, probably one of these:

Yes, it is.

Not to be an asshole, but can you change the subject to say "affect" instead of "effect"?

I thought this was the usual mtgox tripwire that freezes the trading engine when big orders hit it, but it turns out the trade engine is actually in a loop, relaying the same big transaction over and over again with new timestamps and new transaction IDs (if you run your own socket.io client, you can see this). The thing climbs from 8.79 to 9.30 (~30k btc) and then snaps back to 8.79 and does it again, over and over again.

A bit disturbing, as always.

I still don't really understand what Redmine has to do with a forum reimplementation. Do you mean to manage the development process?

Wouldn't a brute-forcey way to do this be to take every output from all transactions out of the known pirate cluster and try to build clusters of those, too? Each output from pirate's cluster can get the znort treatment to build pseudo-wallets, and then you could make another pass to tally up total movements between all the clusters you care about. Feed into graphviz, make directed arrows between clusters with thickness dependent on how much total movement went in that direction, and make the cluster (visual) size proportional to total balance in the cluster at the end of the period. For extra points, animate this over time with edge thickness showing an exponential weighted average, and cluster size being instantaneous total coins.

Unfortunately, the computational complexity of running your algorithm once for each output sounds prohibitive, so we probably need a smarter approach

P.S: I still haven't had a chance to play with the union-find approach to building clusters. If we wanted to apply the idea to this multi-cluster problem, we'd probably want to store the data on disk somewhere, both for easier access and to avoid eating someone's RAM. Luckily, the union-find structure is pretty trivial to implement in a database, if you don't mind an additional logarithmic factor in the lookup (which some might argue you're getting anyway when dereferencing pointers in memory).

Other than an appeal to nature, why are "the actual resources of the earth" more desirable than the alternative?

Haven't you heard of the powerful proof technique called reductio ad absentiam imaginationis? Trust me, I'm a proof theorist and mathematical logician.

I'm pretty sure the main purpose about IQ tests is to be able to tell other people what your score was. They might also serve the secondary purpose of getting you into Mensa, which has the related goal of letting you tell people you're in Mensa.

Oh yeah, way above 99th.

Oh shit, reeses brings up a good point. What was everyone's SAT score? Cause that's clearly the most important bit. I'll start: mine was 2460.

My penis is way longer than all of y'all's.

Look at my missing avatar! If I try to view the URL directly (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=6514;type=avatar) I get a "Be back soon" page

Edit: Nevermind, it loaded now. Must've been cached or something.

Oh man, who knew that all those companies issuing corporate bonds with no borrowers of their own were Ponzis?? This will be the next major financial scandal of the century! The entire fixed income market (way larger than the equity market!) is the largest Ponzi in history. Madoff should hang his head in shame.

If your certainty about him being a Ponzi is anything less than 100% (and you said it was 98% last time I asked you), it isn't necessarily illogical to hedge. To be really simplistic about it, you think that there's a 1/50 chance you'll lose 5000 btc and and a 49/50 chance you'll get 10000. Simple expected value will value your "bet portfolio" at 9700 btc at maturity, but your one-year 2% value at risk is 0. Both of those could improve, depending on your model of his default probabilities over time, if you were willing to hedge



So basically, "DAMMIT THE PONZI IS COLLAPSING AND I NEED YOU TO DEPOSIT YOUR MONEY INTO IT, OTHERWISE I CAN'T GET MINE OUT".

Vandroiy is entitled to his opinions, but spamming strangers seems to be pushing it a bit.

We found his island and it contained conclusive proof of his Ponziness. You might as well just get the money from nanotube right now.

Good work tracking him down. This is typical Ponzi behavior. After evidence like this, he'd be a fool to keep denying it! If you look closely at and enhance the pixels, you can even see that it says "Ponzi Island" on one of the beaches.