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141  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: March 10, 2015, 06:19:42 PM
I don't consume any caffeine, nor sugar. I am calm. But you all had better understand that Armstrong has NEVER been wrong. And you all better realize that October is only a few months from now!

What is wrong with you people? You act like you have plenty of time. You don't!

I am going to back to work.
142  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: March 10, 2015, 06:15:30 PM
also insurance against default was mandatory so I figured that there was little risk

And when the insurance company defaults, then whose name is liable for all the debt? (yours! the government+banksters will even change the rules if necessary)


I think my optimism/head in the sand was/is partly due to being duped in my early 20s by the doom sayers and buying into the collapse-mongers.

The longish video linked in my prior post explains that all of Europe has only sovereign debt as the Tier 1 capital which is backing everything from banking to insurance to derivatives.

The entire European economy will stop. Armstrong is predicting war.

You people are asleep at the wheel. You have no fucking clue how bad this is going to get and how radically Europe will change in 2016.

CoinCube you need to wake up from casual slumber. The biggest problem with real estate is that in a deflationary contagion, you can't sell it, and then you can't move. Moving is going to be critical to your future.
143  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: March 10, 2015, 05:55:46 PM
I've been programming non-stop since my prior post (except for 6 hours sleep on the bed 2 feet from my desk). Almost ready to launch my new business! I literally didn't do anything else (didn't eat, didn't talk to anyone, didn't read anything, ... oh I did urinate though). A few 1000 LOCs.

Watch all of these videos and listen very attentively and carefully to every word.

For example in one of the videos Armstrong in explains in exact detail why rising interest rates will send the USA into sovereign debt default eventually (70% of the national debt is to pay interest!). Another example is that Armstrong told John Major what to say when Soros broke the British pound! Another recent prediction Armstrong got correct was the break of the Swiss peg (he even told the Swiss central bank in 2012 that the peg would break as part of the contagion leading to the Sovereign Debt Big Bang 2015.75).

So many interesting facts in these videos:

http://www.idfa.nl/industry/tags/project.aspx?id=B2EA7AC0-0D46-4D4C-86C3-FD028573C70A&tab=idfa
(watch both videos at above link, second video talks about 2015.75)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxOUyPKA_vg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJNEjq7I5Is
(in this video he relates how he was in the hole with the terrorists a year before 9/11 and saw them drawing planes flying into the WTC)
144  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: March 09, 2015, 12:15:26 PM
Interesting that MA predicted this. I'm still of the opinion that this is a periphery default as of now- merely the early warning signs. If dominoes start to fall in the next few months I'm happy to admit that I'm wrong.

Armstrong predicted it would set off cascading defaults. And now we see Austrian banks will be allowed to default on their creditors, thus Armstrong is correct yet again.

I am trying to warn you not to enter that real estate loan.

So I appreciate coinits' post for eludicating this.

My opinion is that Bix Weir is a huckster and a charlatan, peddling grains of truth in his writing, diving down rabbit holes to string together his own story which he markets incredibly well (at least considering the content). No doubt there are myriad rabbit holes to go down on various interrelated topics as many of us have done in the past.

As are all those goldbugs promoters. And that is why I don't respect much those goldbugs who are still following them because I know they are deluded. I know without needing to ask that they read Alex Jones, Kitco.com, David Icke, CaseyResearch.com, etc.. No one talks about how pitiful their actual prediction record is (they probably make their money on subscribers and cozy private placements, etc). Perhaps their tech guru Katusa has a bonafide record of great investments (I haven't verified it).

I remember telling David Galland of CaseyResearch in email (they banned me from their forum for speaking heresies frankly) that their advice several years ago to short Treasuries expecting higher interest rates was premature. I told them that their Fundamental Analysis was myopic.

Armstrong was the lone voice who also owns gold coins, who was predicting (before 2011) that gold would decline from its 2011 highs to below $1000.

I hope CoinCube can start to get a taste of my experience and why I can discern that Armstrong is the real prognosticator of merit, especially long-term. Nadeem Walayat of marketoracle.co.uk also has an impressively accurate record of precise near-term market timing predictions. BTW, that essay I wrote predicting the silver price rise and fall wasn't intended to be published. I emailed that hastily and sloppily written insight to Nadeem to ask his opinion, and he decided to publish it.

P.S. Both Armstrong and myself think gold has a role to play. We are not anti-gold. We are just being rational instead of deluded.
145  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: March 09, 2015, 11:48:09 AM
I have always thought that David Icke was a nutter but maybe he is on to something about these out-of-phase vibrational lizard beings that are in control.

I do not disagree with you on that but you will find that I am rather civilized and respectful when treated the same.

And you will find similarly of me, if you learn to respect me first. Which means go understand how influential and accurate I have been first before being so flippant with me.

One of the reasons I know I disgree with you fundamentally is because you are a goldbug. I was a tinfoil hat, rpietillian(lol)/lizard-hating neophyte too before until I learned. I used to own 18,000oz of silver and I used to manufacture silver 1oz rounds and ship them to rpietila in Finland. I was buying Comex 1000oz bars at $9/troy oz and turning them into silver rounds. I also in October 2010 publicly predicted the rise from $22 to $45-46 and collapse to $26 for Spring of 2011.

Fiat is not the problem, because eliminating it can't be done thus there is no solution. Period. Money will always be about confidence, power law distribution of wealth and knowledge, social organization, a common unit-of-account, etc.. There are fundamental facts of nature that can't be changed.

A current proposed solution for opting out of failure (so the fiats can die and renew without harming those who opt out) is a high-latency Tor-like onion routing network which I have written about in great detail in a thread on this forum. One of the key points is to rid it of Sybil attacks, it can't be free. There are numerous other technical and marketing points.

I have also proposed (or agreed with BitShares BitUSD BitAssets) that we can peg crypto-currencies to external units-of-account. That doesn't eliminate them (because the unit-of-account won't have a carrying cost), but gives us people a choice to opt out at a carrying cost. For high profit margin Knowledge Age workers, this is probably a no brainer choice considering the Technocracy regulation coming down the pike, e.g. Net Neutrality charade, China institutionalizing NSA gestapo in their law, etc.
146  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: March 09, 2015, 11:46:59 AM
coinits, I think Bix is jumping to conclusions, from what I've read there will be no bailout from the Austrian government- I read part of a statement from the Austrian Finance Minister. While this is a municipal default like Detroit I believe he stated that a certain amount of the debt will still be repaid, but the buck will stop with this default.
The state of Carinthia was left in a mess by previous politicians allowing these state guarantees, this default is exactly as it should be. An unjust debt being reneged on. I'm not saying that's exactly what is happening, but I do not believe this is a black swan. I believe that the losses will be contained, this time. Perhaps the ECB will extend their QE to buy up this toxic sludge like the Fed has previously done in a similar fashion.

Armstrong predicted over a year ago that the default of Europe would originate in Austria. He said it is because cycles repeat and that Austria was the start of the defaults in Europe in the 1900s crisis period.

From Bix Wier

I traded emails with him roughly 5 years ago refuting his "Yellow Brick Road" theory about former President Reagan planting a future bomb Trojan horse on Central Banking. He argued that was what the movie was secretly about.

(I am surprised I could still recall those details about Bix Wier, given all the chaos in my life in the intervening years)
147  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: March 09, 2015, 11:36:53 AM
Talking down and being condescending towards others is not becoming of someone who is trying to present an idea.

The pot calling the kettle black:

Need a better plan Stan.

No. You provided stinky linkies. Have a good day.

You have absolutely no indepth understanding of what I have proposed, already developed, nor of my technical acumen, nor that I am the foundation of this entire thread.

You are in my house.

Either recognize that fact, or get off my lawn kiddie.
148  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: March 09, 2015, 11:12:09 AM
Fiat is a problem. It is their slavery tool. Perpetual debt and wealth stealing.

I had already replied to you:

[1] Human nature can't be changed, that is unrealistic and "pie in the sky" delusion. Instead we need technology that enables us to opt-out of the collectivism.

To eliminate fiat, you need to eliminate humans.

Well that doesn't work. Need a better plan Stan.

I see you need eyeglasses, so I magnified the text for you.

I provided one.
149  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: March 09, 2015, 10:39:06 AM
Fiat is a problem. It is their slavery tool. Perpetual debt and wealth stealing.

I had already replied to you:

[1] Human nature can't be changed, that is unrealistic and "pie in the sky" delusion. Instead we need technology that enables us to opt-out of the collectivism.

To eliminate fiat, you need to eliminate humans.
150  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: March 09, 2015, 10:25:13 AM
I know it is scripted. Just that I think that the script is different than the one that your are reading.

What difference?

The overall goal by the few elite at the top is to use creative destruction to destroy the central banks and establish a one-world reserve currency (e.g. SDRs) that is not controlled by any nation but rather by some international institution such as the World Bank or BIS or IMF as potential examples. From control of this, they can gain centralized control over every nation on earth.

The various artifacts are used to misdirect various sectors such as:

1. Get the gold bugs focused on fiat as the problem and solution (it is not![1]).

2. Reward the banksters for participating in the overall plan.

3. Fool the masses into socialism and 99% against 1%

4. Global Technocracy (everything is tracked and controlled digitally, e.g. Smart utility meters, digital money, government regulation of the internet)

5. Get Armstrong and other myopic idealists to focus on reforming government as a solution (it is not![1])

etc...

The only solution is technological:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg10708644#msg10708644

Orthogonal to the dire need for an anonymous internet (the link above), we do need a global reserve unit (I covered the economic reasons else where), but it could be instead potentially a crypto-currency which no one controls but I don't know if this is likely or plausible. I did write it is impossible to absorb the world's $200 trillion into a crypto-currency if we don't add options. Find my recent posts about that, I don't have time to go find them for you.

[1] Human nature can't be changed, that is unrealistic and "pie in the sky" delusion. Instead we need technology that enables us to opt-out of the collectivism.
151  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: March 09, 2015, 10:16:34 AM
Rising interest rates are the Achilles heel of their Keynesian Shit Bonanza.

You don't (holistically) understand (even though you are correct on one artifact). I assert it was all part of a scripted plan (scripted to be congruent with Armstrong's cyclical models, that is why they need him). I will let CoinCube attempt to explain, if he agrees with me. I don't have time to distill down through all your pre-conceptions. No ill will intended; I am just too busy.
152  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: March 09, 2015, 10:03:15 AM
so what is supposed to happen in 2015.75?

One specific event that is expected, is for the German DAX to peak and "terminally" decline from there.

Essentially the confidence in core Europe's sovereign debt should have an turning point towards a terminal decline. That might be precipitated by a more visible loss of confidence in the periphery of Europe on that turning point.

Japan should follow in 2016.

This will cause an acceleration of capital flow into the USA, driving the USA stocks to a phase transition bubble near 40,000 by 2017. The Fed will react by raising interest rates, seeing this as an opportunity to unwind their balance sheet and to pretend to be protecting the 99% against the 1% who profit on stocks. (Note Armstrong doesn't seem to understand the Fed will do this because TPTB want the masses to beg for their own demise, its all part of the master plan towards a one-world reserve currency and global Technocracy. Armstrong doesn't understand that at Bilderberg meetings a smaller group of less than a dozen meet to discuss the real plan for the world, he isn't inside the top most circle)

This rise in interest rates will cause the rest of the world (which is short the dollar due to borrowing all the QE which ended up invested outside the USA) to collapse, thus killing the USA exports from both reduced international demand and a stronger dollar.

USA should thus follow into terminal decline in 2017.

Dominoes falling...
153  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [SKY] Skycoin Launch Announcement on: March 09, 2015, 09:16:43 AM
I originally dismissed Skycoin's upthread idea to delegate to a timestamp server because I felt it could be another centralized point-of-failure, e.g. the timestamp servers could censor which transactions they would sign with a timestamp.

But I think the solution is the idea of an inner envelope which blinds the timestamp (can't read) and which is revealed (unlocked publicly) after the timestamp has signed, which I was reminded of conceptually from this document (not a new concept for me, just wasn't thinking of it in the earlier discussion):

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!msg/alt.privacy/MKy0G4zl0WA/NskNTe-efE4J

Quote
The digital cash would be placed inside the outer "encryption envelope,"
and could be decrypted using the organization's public key.  The
prediction itself (including name and date) would be itself in another
encryption envelope inside the first one, but it would be encrypted
using a key that is only known to the predictor himself.  In this way,
the organization could decrypt the outer envelope and find the digital
cash, but they would have no idea what is being predicted in the
innermost envelope, either the name or the date.

If, later, the "prediction" came true, the predictor would presumably
send yet another encrypted "envelope" to the organization, containing
the decryption key for the previous "prediction" envelope, plus a public
key (despite its name, to be used only once!) to be used for encryption
of digital cash used as payment for the award.  The organization would
apply the decryption key to the prediction envelope, discover that it
works, then notice that the prediction included was fulfilled on the
date stated.

So then we  don't need the consensus of mining. Each node can maintain its own blockchain autonomously based on a common set of rules. The transactions can be broadcast to the network. Clients can verify from the data retained whether the node has followed the rules.

This eliminates PoW and orphans due to network latency, but it doesn't eliminate orphans due to double-spends where the earlier spend was withheld from the network for some delay. It also eliminates the problems with propagating transactions from the winning block to all the peer nodes (sorry that was me questioning Peter Todd's math).

A problem is consensus about which timestamp servers were historically trustable.

And the insoluble problem may be verifying relative time, i.e. it is not known whose timestamp server is accurate. We need to study the current consensus issues for NTP (network time protocol).

It seems conceptually that my upthread point remains true;  decentralized consensus is closer to a lie or delusion. The only true decentralization are competing choices.

However, one possible solution is to use a PoW consensus network to periodically compile a list of trusted timestamp servers. The nodes of the PoW network would poll the timestamp servers that advertise themselves to the network, anonymously testing the timestamp server for veracity of its ability to timestamp accurately.

This would provide real-time transactions along with a reduced role for decentralized consensus that would mitigate its weaknesses.

Combining this with my ASIC-proof CPU-only PoW hash and a paradigm of making mining UNprofitable for everyone (to eliminate mining farms!) might be the killer design for an altcoin. Alternatively of course in instead of PoW would be experimentation with other consensus algorithms such as Skycoin's proposed Obelisk for this role of consensus on timestamp servers.
154  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: March 09, 2015, 09:01:06 AM
The Knowledge Age in action in Chile!

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/yerka-the-unstealable-bike

Also Chile looks like a nice place in this video.

Again note the crime in Latin America is elevated, and maybe that is because they have shorter index fingers (sign of elevated neo-natal testosterone), c.f. my post upthread about the longest penises (other than the Congo) being in South America.
155  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: March 09, 2015, 06:47:16 AM
BurtW arrested:

The indictment says:

Quote
BURTON WAGNER,
 did knowingly conduct, control, manage, supervise, direct, or own all or part of an unlicensed money transmitting business affecting interstate and foreign commerce, to wit, a digital currency exchange business which (A) operated without an appropriate money transmitting license in a state where such operation is punishable as a misdemeanor or felony under state law; (B) failed to comply with the money transmitting business regulations under Section 5330 of Title 31, United States Code, and regulations prescribed thereunder; and (C) involved the transport and transmission of funds that were known to the defendant to have been derived from a criminal offense

I wonder what that's about. I doubt that he was knowingly helping the Silk Road or anything like that...


http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/09/china-copies-nsa-but-by-legislation/

Quote
China Copies NSA but by Legislation

China will most likely pass a very far-reaching counter-terrorism act which adopts by legislation everything the NSA has been doing illegally behind the scenes and Congress along with Obama have endorsed. China will require technology firms to hand over encryption keys and install security “backdoors” just as the NSA has done secretly.

...

The National People’s Congress has proposed that all companies must also keep servers and user data within China, and supply their law enforcement authorities with communications records and censor terrorism-related internet content. What made the internet work has been the freedom it brought. That is governments are encroaching on and in the process, the exponential growth curve [of the internet] will begin to decline.

For Asia to rise in the Knowledge Age, this Technocracy has to be demolished.

It is time for an untraceable internet to rise. The market is ready. Tor isn't it because it has failed recently on a huge scale to protect hidden servers from the NSA. And the Tor project has admitted that Tor is deficient for hidden servers.



http://www.ieee-security.org/TC/SP2013/papers/4977a080.pdf

Quote
2013 IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy

Trawling for Tor Hidden Services: Detection, Measurement, Deanonymization

Contributions:
• We give a method to measure the popularity of any
hidden service without the consent of the hidden service
operator.
• We show how connectivity to selected hidden services
can be denied by impersonating all of their responsible
hidden services directories.
• We demonstrate a technique that allows one to harvest
hidden service descriptors (and thus get a global picture
of all hidden services in Tor) in approximately 2 days
using only a modest amount of resources.
• We show how to reveal the guard nodes of a Tor hidden
service.
• We propose a large-scale opportunistic deanonymiza-
tion attack, capable of revealing IP addresses of a
significant fraction of Tor’s hidden services over a one
year period of time.

Note the primary methodology employed is the Sybil attack, which has been one of my main design points about how to build a superior onion network:

Quote
Most of our attacks are made practical and cost efficient by
two implementation deficiencies in the current versions of
Tor: (1) Tor relays can cheat and inflate their bandwidth
in the consensus despite bandwidth measurements; this
makes them more likely to be chosen by the path selection
algorithm. (2) Using a technique called “shadowing” we can
phase relays in and out of the consensus at will without them
losing their flags, allowing us to defeat countermeasures
against Sybil [8] attacks.
156  Economy / Services / Re: Seamless ecommerce sell to credit cards & receive Bitcoin? on: March 09, 2015, 06:30:06 AM
Compare the Dwolla Morass (DBA, etc) To The Instant Solution!

(I win!  Grin  Cool)

I found the link to your Easy Pay Widget:

https://coin.mx/merchant/generate_url

I found another alternative solution to avoid credit cards entirely, which is applicable to my site business model:

I tested the web miner and I am getting about 0.8 kH/s in Firefox on my recent model i7 running Linux Mint 17, which appears to be comparable to those running a downloaded miner.

Thus I assume their web miner is employing C and/or assembly code. So if their API was improved so their affiliate widget could be employed to impose a delay of a few seconds on all visitors, the bots would also experience a similar resource cost (for as long as these altcoins are not mineable by ASICs or assuming the bots are hijacked computers that only have CPUs also).

However, the economics are two orders-of-magnitude less profitable compared to Captcha advertising revenue. Using their calculator or this one that appears to generate about $0.02 per hour. Whereas solvermedia.com can generate slightly less than $0.01 per Captcha view (i.e. even if user doesn't respond to the Captcha).
157  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Mine bitcoins instead of captcha/paywall? on: March 09, 2015, 06:23:58 AM
Waiting for minutes to gain access to your site would really kill the visitors. Entering a captcha is much easier/quicker.

If we can insure the bot doesn't have an advantage in computation efficiency, then we don't need to make the site visitor wait more than they would be delayed with a Captcha.

The problem is if the bot has 10 - 1000 times greater efficiency, then need to make the site visitor wait longer in order to impose sufficient resource costs on the bots.

I would be nice if you could somehow make your visitors mine coins for you without them knowing when they surf your site Wink

Assuming you only did this for a short delay and a small percentage of the duration that the visitor is only your site, then this would be okay.

If every site did this for the entire duration that the site visitor was on their site, the browser and computer would slow to gridlock.

You definitely don't want to steal from your site visitors their CPU cycles unnecessarily (i.e. mining for the entire duration they are on your site).  Wink  Angry

Minergate has a webminer available for some altcoins...

https://minergate.com/web-miner

I tested the web miner and I am getting about 0.8 kH/s in Firefox on my recent model i7 running Linux Mint 17, which appears to be comparable to those running a downloaded miner.

Thus I assume their web miner is employing C and/or assembly code. So if their API was improved so their affiliate widget could be employed to impose a delay of a few seconds on all visitors, the bots would also experience a similar resource cost (for as long as these altcoins are not mineable by ASICs or assuming the bots are hijacked computers that only have CPUs also).

However, the economics are two orders-of-magnitude less profitable compared to Captcha advertising revenue. Using their calculator or this one that appears to generate about $0.02 per hour. Whereas solvermedia.com can generate slightly less than $0.01 per Captcha view (i.e. even if user doesn't respond to the Captcha).

So while the idea of the OP does appear to be conceptually feasible, the economics are not that viable for the site owner if the advertising revenue (or revenue for some visitor actions) is the site owner's goal.

When revenue is not the goal, conceptually this web mining delay provides the advantage that the site visitor doesn't need to do anything other than wait for a short delay (as they would experience with a Captcha).

Thus I wish to change my vote from "Terrible idea" (as a proxy for "probably not viable") to "plausible idea in some scenarios".
158  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: March 08, 2015, 09:16:12 PM
How ironic it will be if the pandemic materializes and it can be carried and spread by those who are vaccinated, but under age 65 have a very low mortality rate if vaccinated but the over 65 get basically no immune response from the vaccine.

So then after all these years of boomers being selfish with their time, they will have to choose between living isolated from their grand kids or the significant risk of a very painful death.

I was reading how symptoms of the 1918 Spanish flu were somewhat similar to Ebola in the sense of bleeding through the nose and suffocating (gasping for air) on one's own blood filled lungs.

The videos of those gasping for air after being poisoned with nerve gas in Syria come to mind.

The Black death solved the excess in labor that had impeded the Industrial Revolution from forming in Europe.

Perhaps the 2019 pandemic will solve the unfunded liabilities problem which is politically holding back the adjustment to the Knowledge Age computer revolution.

I am not enjoying these thoughts.  Cry
159  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: March 08, 2015, 07:22:41 PM
Shit that dress was gold and white again and slowly morphed to blue and black over about 3 seconds! Is anybody else getting this effect?
160  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: March 08, 2015, 07:11:56 PM
Also, frank discussion is fine.  But, IMO it is not, ahh, simple human kindness and courtesy to disparage others for not catching a fairly difficult point you are trying to make.  Armstrong seems to be insensitive as well.  Perhaps this is the way super-bright guys think...

We all can't even be on the same page, if you all are not up-to-speed on accepting Armstrong's models as facts, or at least presenting solid, unarguable counter examples that aren't subjective minutiae about his personality and not his models' performance. I have expended enormous effort to try to move us along towards both understanding (and hopefully some technical solutions forthcoming too Wink, if my health cooperates).

If you are dealing with computer programmers, get used to sarcasm and unadulterated humiliation for not being a sharp tool. You can spend some time over at Eric Raymond's blog (esr.ibiblio.org) for a taste of hackerdom.

I am mild in comparison and got my a$$ handed to me numerous times by Eric Raymond and his regulars, and even gmaxell and his ilk on this forum.

My impatience is also because 2015.75 is almost here and I am way behind on my preparations. Also I am highly stressed trying to pull all-niters on coding while battling severe chronic illness that often makes it a battle for me to have sufficient energy to lift my forehead off the keyboard (literally!).

I don't have any patience for dumb, petty shit. Please.

Btw you can also ship your gold internationally from the USA. I can recommend First State Depository.
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