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April 16, 2014, 01:39:40 PM *
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1001  Economy / Economics / Re: Lost Bitcoins on: December 31, 2013, 09:27:32 AM
Yeah that is nonsense.  2^256 is bigger than you think.  Not kinda bigger than you think asinenly bigger than you think.

If you converted the entire planet into a super computer and powered it by the sun you couldn't COUNT to 2^256 before the sun burned out, there isn't simply enough energy.  Of course that is doing something fantastical like building a perfect computer (one at which higher efficiency violates the laws of thermodynamics) and capturing the entire energy output of a star.   That isn't finding a collision that is just counting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 .... 2^256.   

1002  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will this cause France to get into Bitcoin - 75% Tax on Rich on: December 31, 2013, 05:42:12 AM
It is effectively a "maximum wage" law.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_wage

Defacto it pretty much is a maximum wage law as no company is going to pay employees over the "cap" only to be slammed with an obviously punitive tax (on top of existing payroll, sales, and corporate income tax).  Companies will cut salaries (or offer alternative compensation) to avoid the tax and the "tax" will produce no significant revenue but the government will have to already know that will be the outcome and thus the "tax" isn't intended as a tax at all but a method of control.
1003  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will this cause France to get into Bitcoin - 75% Tax on Rich on: December 31, 2013, 05:38:21 AM
This taxation is obviously absurd but I feel it is important to remember here that the 75% is over the amount that exceeds 1M and not over 1M itself. If your salary is 1.1M you will pay 75% of 100k + n% over the remaining 1M (n is around 40%, depends on many factors). This leads to an "effective" tax rate a bit lower than 75%. Still, absurd.

It is NOT an income tax.  French citizens will continue to pay whatever (likely insane) income tax exist.  This is a tax or more aptly a penalty paid by the COMPANY which dares to issue such a high salary.  You state it is on the amount over 75% can you point to a cite because nothing in the article indicates that.  Still even if it is only on the amount of the salary over 75% it is not an income tax and not paid by the employee.

In essence France has said "employers are not allowed to pay anyone over 1M EUR and if you do we will slam you with a 75% fine".  It is a defacto ban on salaries the government considers too high, the only thing more strict would be outright prohibition by making it a criminal offense for a company to pay an employee more than $1M EUR annually.
1004  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will this cause France to get into Bitcoin - 75% Tax on Rich on: December 31, 2013, 01:32:35 AM
Weird the tax isn't an income tax, it is a penalty tax on the companies which pay its employees "too much".  The company pays a 75% tax on the salaries which exceed 1M EUR per year.  So company pays you 1M EUR, company coughs up 750K EUR to the government.  Correction:  The tax is on the employer for 75% of the wages ABOVE 1M EUR so it is in effect a wage cap.  Instead of the govt saying "wages over 1M annually are illegal" they just made it asininely expensive to pay wages that high so ... companies won't.

Company cuts your salary to 1,000,000 EUR or less, and the company pays no tax (well no extra millionaire taxes).  I have a feeling many companies will simply cut salaries which are over the 1M "cap" and offer some form of deferred compensation.

1005  Economy / Goods / Re: start the art - abstract paintings for bitcoins on: December 30, 2013, 05:31:21 PM
I bought (well my wife bought it as a gift) #3 in the series.  Dealing with Start The Art was pleasant and professional.   The only hard part is the waiting.  It is a long way from Croatia to the US.  I will be sure to post some photos once it arrived and it mounted.

I wanted to get #1 but honestly it was too large for the space and now it looks like Goat might have snapped it up. Sad
1006  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Is it possible yet to send bitcoin with a defineable time (or block #) delay? on: December 30, 2013, 05:21:08 PM
The idea of a school is a good one.
It is something that could be attached to the conferences that are regularly scheduled all over the planet.
The folks that can teach are certainly there.  The facility is there.  It may make sense to do classes as an addition to those.

Another great idea in this thread.  Maybe this platform (or one like it) could be leveraged ( https://www.hackerrank.com/ ) to support a Bitcoin challenge track?

Something that is a series of "courses" which starts with the basic like installing bitcoind, moving the data directory, configuring config file, etc.  Higher level courses could cover RPC calls, pywallet, creating watching only wallets.  Highest level courses could cover raw transactions, message internals, modifying the source code, etc.
1007  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Is it possible yet to send bitcoin with a defineable time (or block #) delay? on: December 30, 2013, 05:16:57 PM
As far as I know, there is no easy way to do this step.  If people are serious about doing this, I'll see about adding a getpublickey RPC command.
There are so very many reasons for this, beyond just this application.

I agree.  GetPubKey would be a great RPC addition.  Also thanks for that walkthrough.  I may try this out on testnet and later with a token amount of BTC on main net.  I would caution anyone looking to "play" with raw transactions you can permanently lose funds by creating flawed raw transactions.  Use testnet, build testable software (even if it is just some scripts) to create the raw txs, and only move to main net once fully tested.   
1008  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I know this has been brought up before, but confirmation times are getting weird on: December 30, 2013, 04:38:52 PM
Is anything being done about this?

Yes.

Quote

The obvious solution is to reduce the orphan cost. To do this solved-block propogation time needs to be lowered.

This is being worked on by migrating from a complete block to a skeleton block, with only the headers and merkle tree included. This alone would reduce the orphan risk cost by about a factor of 10.


Thanks for the reply.

According to the above analysis, the fees are already about 1/30th of what they should be for miners to break even. The skeleton block solution gets us to 1/3. That's just at the current price.

Don't you think this is a big problem? I assume that, at some point, economic reality will kick in and miners will start to demand much higher fees. Suddenly bitcoin isn't so great compared to alternatives.

Not really, I recommend reading the entire thread.  Switching to hashes only is more like a 20x reduction in size.   Also the fees being 1/30th of "orphan cost" is just one estimate.  Other estimates put it closer to 1/10th.  Miners also receive a very large subsidy and they have an indirect incentive to keep the network going (a few less Bitcoins which are worth something is more than a few more worthless Bitcoins).  Also Moore's law is alive and well and it applies to bandwidth as well.

Still even if fees rose 300% (which I strongly doubt) that would make the cost of a Bitcoin tx something on the order of $0.20 which compares very well to other payment methods.   What I think is more likely is miners dropping or reducing the number of free transactions they support and maybe the min fee doesn't go down.   That combined with the subsidy, improvement to block propogation, and the power of Moore's law will likely keep tx fee costs below $0.10 or so.
1009  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Newcomer felt too late on: December 30, 2013, 04:32:38 PM
Very true. But what confuses me is, there are still a lot of people buying these USB miners. I would like to buy a few USB to try out mining.

That is exactly why they buy them.  They want to try it out.  Just understand if you buy a USB Miner for x BTC (and if you paid USD you could instead buy x BTC) you will be lucky to earn 10% of that back in your lifetime.  If you want to buy a USB miner to "try it out" well go ahead just understand that you are guaranteeing a 50% to 90% loss as a cost for that education.  If you are fine with that then go ahead they are a great way to learn how the system works, however if you are buying them thinking you can pay x BTC and end up with 5x BTC you are going to be very sad in a couple months.
1010  Other / Alternate cryptocurrencies / Re: This sub-forum is over... on: December 30, 2013, 04:27:42 PM
I guess some substructuring, like "new coins", "giveaways", "coin accepting/trading sites", "coin mining", "general discussion", ...  would help considerably.

I agree with you. How we can highlight the issue to the admins?

It has been highlighted in meta a dozen or more times.  The view of the admins is that this forum is Bitcointalk, and anything non Bitcoin related is off topic.  The altcoin sub forum is the same as the off topic subforum it exists for the SOLE REASON of making the mods jobs easier.  If there was no altcoin and off topic sub forums people would still post about altcoins and other off topic posts but it would just be spread out all over the forum and would lead to more mod work.

It is NEVER going to change.
1011  Other / Off-topic / Re: Is there enough duct tape in the US for every home in California? <Reactor 3> on: December 30, 2013, 04:25:17 PM
I love the anti-rad idiots on the web.

Summary - if a lethal radiation cloud moving at 10mph is heading towards you and (is hundreds of miles away) you should NOT I repeat NOT simply leave the area.  Instead you should try to duct tape your entire house.

1012  Other / Alternate cryptocurrencies / Re: This sub-forum is over... on: December 30, 2013, 04:16:49 PM
I wish there is a way to ignore all posts from "Alternate cryptocurrencies" from ever appearing in my "Show unread posts since last visit". BTC is littered with "yet-another-coin" give aways and "to the moon" posts Undecided

There is set the subforum to ignore in your profile.
1013  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com on: December 30, 2013, 04:13:26 PM
As a Batch 1 customer from both KNC and Hashfast, I cannot recommend KNC enough.

KNC = honest, capable, prompt and actually delivers.
Hashfast = dishonest, incapable, delayed and doesn't deliver.

Of course, the decision is ultimately up to you.

+1.

KNC has its problems but they are nothing like HF who blatantly lied to customers to defraud them.   If after, anyone buys from HF because they are a deal well you are an idiot.
1014  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Can offline transactions be guaranteed? on: December 30, 2013, 03:59:35 AM
Well in that scenario the grandfather could spend the coins however using multi-sig one could "lock the coins"

Create multi-sig address P2SH which requires 2 of 2 signatures to spend. Grandfather sends the coins to the address.   Grandfather half signs a locktime tx to grandsons address,  grandson half signs completing the tx.

Outcome:
Coins are secure in address which both grandfather and grandson need to sign to create a new/alternative tx.  Grandson has a valid signed tx but it can't be included in a block until he turns 18 (well roughly it is based on block time).
1015  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s on: December 30, 2013, 03:26:04 AM
The sad thing is that 429 GH/s hasn't made 0.33 BTC for a very long time.  It is more like 0.18 BTC today.  Not sure if it is incompetence or just scamming up more sales that made them ignore the fact that one day pool output is boosted by luck.

So it is 0.18 BTC per day for the next couple days but it will drop to 0.126 before they even deliver.  That would last for at most 11 days and then difficulty will go up at least another 30% so reward falls to 0.082.

TL/DR

No a lackluster 429 GH/s, delivered two months late and using just as much power as KNC ( remember when they bashed them) will deliver something 2 BTC in 21 days and that is probably 1/3 to 1/2 of what it will produce in its lifetime.
1016  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin will *not* attack/destroy/fight/etc central banking and fiat currency on: December 28, 2013, 10:34:02 PM
It would change your analysis to be that Bitcoin is a practical implementation of a system that may suffer from the Two Generals Problem.  Bitcoin exactly "solve" the problem.  The problem is considered to be unsolvable.  A solution would imply the system could never be compromised.  A 51% attack is a limitation of the Bitcoin implementation and thus the problem isn't solved.  What Bitcoin (or technically the consensus in ordering of valid transactions forced by miners using a proof of work) does is reduce the uncertainty on the permanence of a transaction by adding confirmations .... unless an attacker has >50% of the computing power.  However that doesn't mean the problem is solved only that the cost of an attack has been raised.

It is very likely that only computer science nerds would really care about the distinction but a false claim simply provides an easily defeated strawman.
1017  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: No. of confirmation through API on: December 28, 2013, 10:14:25 PM
Sorry I looked quickly and assumed the rawtx call provided the block hash as well as the block height.
1018  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: No. of confirmation through API on: December 28, 2013, 06:45:42 PM
Thank u so much for the explanation. Would u mind to say how do I accomplish Point 2 using API ? I mean I have got my tx block hash, but how do I check if it is part of the main chain ?

Using blockchain.info API?
By looking for "mainchain" value in the rawblock RPC using the blockhash from step 1.

https://blockchain.info/rawblock/00000000000007d0f98d9edca880a6c124e25095712df8952e0439ac7409738a

Quote
{
   "hash":"00000000000007d0f98d9edca880a6c124e25095712df8952e0439ac7409738a",
   "ver":1,   
   "prev_block":"0000000000000a5d8e40fb83ef468e6d83d1bf5365a8dfad36c4271c4a68c7b5",
   "mrkl_root":"4850536df3c620972a07df5bd4896c61212776059ad6be4f6b583f9186bc98e9",
   "time":1322130562,
   "bits":437129626,
    "fee":2150000,
    "nonce":2984497136,
   "n_tx":99,
   "size":26700,
   "block_index":169706,
   "main_chain":true,
   "height":154594,
   "received_time":1322130562,
   "relayed_by":"127.0.0.1",
...

With blockchain.info the internals of their API are a blackbox so I wouldn't want to assume that however you can explicitly confirm that by
a) getting the blockhash of the tx (rawtx)
b) checking that block is still in the main chain (rawblock)
c) computing the confirmations as latestblock_height - txblock_height  (latestblock)

Combined that allows you to verify that the tx is in a block, that the block is in the main chain and has the required number of confirmations.

If you have the ability to run bitcoind (can be run without server knowing the decryption passphrase or even better with a watching wallet copy) you can get the same information easier and without having to trust a third party.   You can use the transaction and block callback to be notified when a tx is included in a block and when a block has found.  By checking the status of the tx you can confirm it is in the main chain (orphaned tx will show 0 confirms).

If you want an easier option and can't run bitcoind, blockchain.info also has a receive payments API.  Understand this isn't zero-trust as payments will be sent to an address which blockchain.info has the private key for and then forwarded on to an address you designate.  This means in theory funds could be stolen if blockchain.info is hacked or "hacked".  It does however provide an easier higher level API and the potential loss is limited to payments that haven't yet been forwarded to you.  Depending on your transaction value and risk tolerance this might be acceptable.  Do your own due diligence I haven't used or researched this API.
https://blockchain.info/api/api_receive
1019  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do you really think governments will allow a 500 billion dollar crypto-economy? on: December 28, 2013, 06:34:18 PM
But can I have your view on the "velocity" of those two ? BTC and $ ?
I have the feeling that currently bitcoin is the tortoise looking at the number of transactions in the blockchain.

We have very limited data to work with.  Velocity is the metric which balances money supply and GDP.
GDP = Velocity * Money Supply.

In plain english terms
(economic activity) = (avg number of times a $/BTC is involved in an economic transaction) * (money supply)


Change in velocity is why we have seen little inflation despite the fed printing an insane amount of cash.  If velocity remained constant we would have seen massive price inflation which would drive up at least the nominal GDP and force companies to spend their rapidly depreciating cash reserves.  Everyone has heard about how much the fed is printing (increase the money supply) however the other component is velocity and in this lackluster recovery velocity has collapsed.  More money is offset by less transactions per unit (dollar) and thus the economy remains sluggish.


BCT image proxy doesn't like the image so here is a direct link to the chart: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s[1][id]=M1V


In the Bitcoin world I don't know of any detailed analysis of GDP or velocity.  The nature of Bitcoin makes that difficulty,  although as Bitcoin gets larger I imagine economists will attempt to estimate the GDP just like they do other economies.  Even in "real" economies GDP, velocity, inflation, and even money supply are just estimates. 

One crude way would be to look at things like blockchain.info "estimated transaciton volume".  Blockchain attempts to remove the change from the transaction, but not all those transactions are "economic" and thus don't contribute to the "Bitcoin GDP".   Someone moving coins from one wallet they own to another wallet they own is not economic activity, anymore than moving $100 from your checking account to your savings account adds to the US economy.  Per blockchain.info there were 73 million BTC in transactions in 2013.  The average money supply for 2013 was 11.4 million BTC.  If we assume all blockchain tx were economic (not likely) and there were no economic off blockchain tx (not likely) that would be a velocity of ~6.5.  The hard part would be quantifying economic tx vs non-economic txs.

In comparison, national economies generally have a velocity of between 5 to 10 when looking at the M1.  Bitcoin is technically more like M0 but it probably displace the utility of M1 so that might be a better comparison.   Currency is a store of value, and a unit of account (used in transactions).  Bitcoin has been primarily the former but if it was used in transactions heavily I would imagine it would have a velocity on the high end of national currencies (i.e. velocity of 8 to 10 or higher).  On the other hand if BTC remains primarily a store of wealth and not a transactional currency it could have a very low velocity.  I don't know if anyone computes the velocity of gold (or more specifically gold bullion and coins) but my SWAG is that it is very low (<1).  A lot of gold once minted simply never changes hands for years or even decades.

TL/DR version:
We don't have enough information to estimate with any degree of accuracy the velocity, or GDP of the "Bitcoin economy".  Most national economies have a velocity (M1) of 5 to 10.  If we Bitcoin ends up similar that would mean supporting a $10T economy would mean a money supply valued at $1T to $2T.  On the other hand if Bitcoin was used more as a store of value then it would drive down velocity and increase the value of the money supply.


1020  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s on: December 28, 2013, 04:47:24 PM
What's the upshot wth this?  Sorry if it was answered & I missed it.



There was no answer to it from them. But I went through and looked at the stats. The problem with the stats wasn't over reporting, or under reporting, but no reporting. There is a gap on every miner at eligius for that period where no stats were recorded. All of the other stats before and after that period are accurate as confirmed by a few eligius miners. It's pretty clear that the BJ was doing 700-800Gh/s. I'm not entirely sure if this 1200Gh/s that is now being mined on that address is a BJ or a sierra. They said they were going to setup a sierra, but did not say if it was going to be on the same address, if they were taking down the BJ, or what.

I wonder if the 1280 GH/s is a 2 module BJ (i.e. testing if power supply and cooling can handle the upgrade module).  That would put the hashrate of a module closer to 600 GH/s?  Meh.  I am going to log off.  Got to much work to do and the lack of info plus stats (of unknown origin) to watch will just burn up the whole day.
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