Once there are enough FPGAs on the network, difficulty will increase and GPUs will become unprofitable or barely
profitable for anyone paying for cooling + electricity [probably most people with more than 4-5 GPUs]. It's a self-fulfilling prophesy.
I often see this quoted but it is nonsense. Higher difficulty will make FPGA even @ $2 per MH even MORE prohibitively expensive. Higher difficulty benefits those w/ efficient GPU (like 5970 & 7xxx series) and moderate to low cost electricity the most.
I think you will see a difficulty spike will kill demand for new FPGA not drive it.
Take hypothetical FPGA miner $2 per MH. 150MH = $300 in cost. Running 24/7/365 @ 15W.
Break even @ current difficulty is 25 months.
Break even @ 30% difficulty increase is 33 months.
Break even @ 50% difficulty increase is 40 months.
Currently today one could buy 5970 for <$500. Say 3x5970 + powersupply + other components = 2.8GH for $2800. Running 24/7/365 @ 1000W.
Break even @ current difficulty is 17 months.
Break even @ 30% difficulty increase is 25 months.
Break even @ 50% difficulty increase is 32 months.
Difficulty increases close the gap but even $2 per MH (an impressive improvement) is still undercut by anyone w/ $0.10 electrical costs (or less).
I am interested in FPGA but these dire predictions of them killing GPU are simply unwarranted unless cost is closer to $1 per MH installed.Remember GPU performance per watt won't be static. The 7xxx series looks to almost double performance per watt (cutting electrical cost in half for GPU miners). A break even of 40+ months, is a considerable risk as 4 years is long enough for 2 product cycles in GPU world. The product after the 7xxx series likely
won't improve performance per watt (think a repeat of 5xxx vs 6xxx) but the generation after that (lets call it 9xxx series) will be a move to 20nm and bring all the power reduction and performance boosts that a die shrink does.
4 years is a long time. My comparison above is based on the 5970s. Soon FPGA will compete against 7xxx series (nearly double the performance per watt) and within 4 years against the 9xxx series (4x the performance per watt).