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2121  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: CoinTerra announces its first ASIC - Hash-Rate greater than 500 GH/s on: November 09, 2013, 06:32:13 PM
i think the short answer is Yes - Cointerra announced a quite vague December date for their first batch (i think they said late dec) and presumably they gave themselves the whole of december as their margin for things to be delayed and still meet their timescales... probably wise, whereas some others gave the earliest possible date as their target date giving them no room for inevitable slippage outside their control.

So Cointerra gave a vague delivery date and you know they chose a conservative timeline with lots of room for slack and errors.
Other companies gave a vague delivery date and they chose an aggressive timeline with no room for slack and errors.

Cointerra is different why?  You want them to be?

Quote
they had paid a lot extra (super rocket run at glofo) to expedite the december batch
Cointerra has announced they paid a premium for a rocket run or this is an assumption?
Usually the pricing and timeline of fabrication is subject to NDA so I would be surprised if they announced that.
2122  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: November 09, 2013, 06:16:35 PM
Immersion cooling is probably impractical for home miners.

I hope to change that.  It probably will be impractical for "the what is a Bitcoin, I just want to buy something, push a button, and get lots of coinz" miner but for the hobbyist I think it is possible (not certain but possible) for immersion cooling to be used.  There is an added bonus for home use of immersion cooling and that is using the waste heat.  A moderate sized rig has sufficient thermal output to provide a home with "free" (or at least 0 energy cost) hot water and/or whole house heating.

As for AM immersion cooling operation.  People shouldn't assume it is a slam dunk super duper money maker.  The economics are challenging however there are two potential bright spots:

1) Immersion cooling at its simplest form is a tank with fluid, a condenser and some mechanism to remove heat from the condenser (i.e. chilled water supply, freon, warm water) .  As hardware evolves old hardware can be replaced with new hardware.  Hardware from one vendor can be replaced with hardware from another vendor.  If it can fit in the tank it can be cooled with immersion cooling.  Compare this to heatsinks, heatpipe coolers, and waterblocks.  They are generally work on a specific system and must be scrapped when the board is obsolete.  Try mounting a Avalon heatsink on a Hasfast mining board.  The capital costs of immersion cooling are higher but they have a long lifespan long enough to support multiple generations of ASIC hardware.  The tank itself has no moving parts and the mechanism for cooling the condenser can be adapted to the location.

2) SHA-2 ASICS are extremely energy dense and the the density has been rising.  One reason that immersion cooling has never caught on in the server world is that while a server may use a lot of power (say 1200W for high end quad core, high memory server) it occupies a relatively large volume.  This mean a large amount of (very expensive) working fluid is needed.  Now one "could" redesign a server to be more compact but then you trade reduced fluid cost for higher custom fabrication costs.  It is a lose-lose without massive (i.e. millions of servers) economies of scale.   Bitcoin ASICs are very energy dense and getting more energy dense.  Take a look at HashFast or Cointerra.  300W+ in a board that is 100mm by 300mm.  This brings its own complications.  We have gone from low capacity heatsinks and fans (ASICMiner/Avalon) to Copper Heat Pipe CPU Coolers (KNC) to Waterblocks (HF & Cointerra). 
2123  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Decrypting Wallet - What if there was a trojan? Could i quickly send coin to pap on: November 09, 2013, 06:05:14 PM
That's good so at least I will have time, like maybe 10 minutes Smiley  Anyway, I'll make sure that my computer stays clean and transfer my backup wallet to a new laptop one day.  Another thing.  my Wallet.dat says, MPEG4 movie file, which is a bit strange.  I'm guessing because I don't have any program really that reads .dat?

Probably not.  Most trojans are designed to operate in near realtime.  At best this results in a race condition, you and trojan transmit a tx for the same "coins", a double spend and it becomes a race to see which ones ends up in the block (the other one ends up invalid).  I don't know for sure but to avoid a race condition it would be pretty trivial for a trojan to disable/block your outbound transaction to ensure it always wins so you might be looking at a guaranteed loss.

If you suspect your computer is infected, then don't use it.  Open the wallet.dat on a different computer.
If you suspect the password for your wallet has been compromised.  Create a new wallet on a secure computer with a new unique strong password (or temporarily an offline/paper wallet) and transfer the full balance of your old wallet to the new wallet.
2124  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Bitcoin router on: November 09, 2013, 05:55:39 PM
Who is going to run this router mining pool that gives the entire block reward away to a random node that had a pool efficacy approaching zero?

It would have to be that complicated.  A large reason why the IO on a pool server is so high is that miners want low variance and and real time stats (i.e. thousand if not millions of low difficulty shares).  In a setup like this the node isn't really a "money maker" and the work load can be much lower.  With ntime rolling it is very possible that the pool server would only need to provide a single work unit per router per block.  Likewise for the "lottery" you don't need routers to return a lot of shares.  The share difficulty can be set relatively high such that a router may only return 1 share a week.  The pool would convert 1 share (and only 1 any excess shares rollover to cover variance in future weeks) per week per router into a ticket and lottery off the week's proceeds.  The router would advise the user if they won (maybe even a blinking Bitcoin LED).

The load on the pool server can be reduced to a negligible amount.  Per router it would be roughly 1 WU issued per block, and 1 high difficulty share to verify per router per week (or maybe day for lower variance).  If the pool could maintain 0.1% of the network hashrate it would on average solve one block per week.

Still I think this type of setup makes more sense in a donation/charity model.  Buy a cobranded router from your favorite non-profit, plug it in and collectively help the non-profit raise revenue.
2125  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Bitcoin router on: November 09, 2013, 05:43:34 PM
I mentioned this At the London conference a few years back. Commodity companies producing things like TV sets or home routers with asics built in. The bitcoin generated could offset your utility bills for example.

An alternate version of this would be quite the scandal.

Some OEM puts a low powered low output (say 28nm die shrink of bitfury) chip on say a HDTV, or Bluray player, or set top box.  These devices more and more are designed for internet connectivity.  Covertly the device mines using the customers electricity.  Now 1 28nm Bitfury (guestimate 8 GH/s) might not be much but imagine it in say 30 million HDTVs (or game consoles, or STBs). Smiley


Still I think a router w/ miner is an interesting idea.  The reality is that a single one would generate negligible revenue but it could be used in a charity/donation type setup.  Imagine the EFF (or some other non profit but EFF given their focus would be a good fit) had a EFF co-branded router (obviously made by some Chinese OEM like any other router) with a low powered mining ASIC.  The router was designed to direct all revenue to EFF "donation pool".  The router could show how much this individual router and all routers combine help the EFF and how much they decentralize the network.
2126  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Statistics? on: November 09, 2013, 06:57:35 AM
It would be impossible to do this as its anonymous when creating a bitcoin client. The only way of doing this would be to have a built in survey in all clients and that would be impossible.


Demographics would be impossible but a run through the block chain would reveal all wallets and the amount in them.  That would give you a wallet distribution. I'm not sure the value since it will just make me feel poor.  Smiley


No it would not.

Address =/= Wallet.

A wallet consists of one or more addresses.   My wallet has >3,700 addresses used.   Please look through the blockchain and find all 3,700 addresses.

You could make a distribution of addresses but since an individual can have any number of addresses it would be next to useless.

A distribution of wallet balances is impossible.
2127  Economy / Speculation / Re: Chinese thoughts on bubbles on: November 09, 2013, 03:58:21 AM
Well if the price growth continues to accelerate they are pretty close to finding out what happens to unsustainable assets prices when there is no government to keep dumping unlimited amounts of funds to keep the bubble inflated.

Chinese meet burst bubble in ..... 3 ..... 2 .....

Heh... what if the government was dumping unlimited amounts of funds to keep the bubble inflated... ? Smiley

That made me smile.  Buckle up because it will be the mother of all rockets.
2128  Economy / Speculation / Re: If chinese bulls can cause this madness, what can chinese bears do? on: November 09, 2013, 03:46:03 AM
In China the bubble bursts you.
2129  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: [ANN] Coinbase account was hacked... on: November 09, 2013, 03:44:41 AM
YES been with bitcoin from day one.

Hi Satoshi.  Why are you so much stupider now than you were in 2009?
2130  Economy / Speculation / Re: Chinese thoughts on bubbles on: November 09, 2013, 03:42:36 AM
Well if the price growth continues to accelerate they are pretty close to finding out what happens to unsustainable assets prices when there is no government to keep dumping unlimited amounts of funds to keep the bubble inflated.

Chinese meet burst bubble in ..... 3 ..... 2 .....
2131  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Unconfirmed transaction on: November 09, 2013, 03:36:22 AM
Forever? probably not but it could take substantially more or less than 17 hours.  At this point you just got to wait and maybe beg some pools to start creating larger blocks.
2132  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Unconfirmed transaction on: November 09, 2013, 03:22:47 AM
No fee included?

There is a large number of unconfirmed transactions and if you included no fee you are at the end of them.

If you have the tx id look it up on blockchain.info.  It should provide you a very rough estimate of how long it will take to get confirmed.
2133  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: average confirmation time 18 minutes? on: November 09, 2013, 01:26:41 AM
@DeathAndTaxes

might it be that the mempools are intentionally flooded with txns spending unconfirmed outputs of transactions with a very small fees?

look at this please:

http://blockchain.info/tx/e931d331b86aba238c641a90286a0490f77a96ecad9b8b3a542aa67d1544a52f
http://blockchain.info/tx-index/96182071

Possibly but it looks like even just an avg block size of 300KB would have prevented any backlog from being created so my gut feeling is no.
2134  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: A question about a potential difficulty attack on: November 09, 2013, 12:29:57 AM
And more along the lines of is the attacker has 40% of the network; they'd need to cause 20.1% of the network to go offline in order to 5% attack. In my understanding of how things work (which could be completely wrong), it sounds a lot more plausible to get 20.1% of the network to drop out due to a 40% increase in difficulty. If this attack could force a number of miners that 1.) comprise 20.1% of the processing power, 2.) cannot operate with a 40% increase in difficulty and have to drop out for two weeks until the difficulty goes back down, then it would be problematic and more feasible than a direct >50% attack, right?

In one difficulty adjustment?  No. 


Still even if you had a chance of doing that you also need to consider what it would cost to build, deploy and run 40% of the global hashpower.  I mean the only one who could afford that type of operation (to operate at a complete loss) would be a nation state.  If you are a nation why play around with a "40% lets hope we can force some miners out" weak sauce attack for $10B when you just build out 80% of network capacity and crush it for $20B.  What is $10B more?  Its only taxpayer money.

Note attack cost are just hypothetical future network cost for illustration.
2135  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: CoinTerra announces its first ASIC - Hash-Rate greater than 500 GH/s on: November 09, 2013, 12:22:05 AM
its clear that any of the other asic companies could stumble at any time during their production process.

I guess my point wasn't that CT could have a major delay obviously a major delay now kills any chance of an on time delivery.  I was just pointing out even with perfect execution they may be limited by the schedule.  We have no idea what CT contract with TSMC GF is.  Maybe TSMC GF is saying wafers in 10 weeks so there doesn't need to be a slip they just never were going to be faster than that.  That wouldn't be particularly unusual but due to the tapeout delay that puts it mid Dec and maybe their assembly house doesn't have the staff and scheduling the week before Christmas to produce 10,000 (or however many they sold) boards.   So I don't think it is a foregone conclusion that they need another stumble to miss their deadlines.  The tapeout stumble may have already done that and it will just play out in agonizing slow motion over the next month.

Quote
KncMiner - you can only hold them up as an example of a company that did get everything right.  they executed almost flawlessly.  they delivered within days of when they said they would.. and had everything ready to go... the chips, the software, the hardware, the boxes, the logistics... and even the hosting (a few days late but still done).

The last orders were more like two weeks late not a few days but still I agree they have done better than just about anyone else except maybe Bitfury.
2136  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-11-08 WashingtonPost: Everything you need to know about the Bitcoin bubble on: November 09, 2013, 12:06:25 AM
Um the author wasn't making that claim, he was disagreeing with it.
2137  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: average confirmation time 18 minutes? on: November 08, 2013, 11:58:08 PM
How many Bitcoin miners live in the Philippines? A powerful typhoon ( the most powerful ever recorded in history) just hit Asia.

The block frequency hasn't decreased.  The number of blocks is >6 per hour.   It isn't an issue of not enough blocks the blocks are just 90%+ empty and while normally that might be fine right now the number of transactions is high.
2138  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: A question about a potential difficulty attack on: November 08, 2013, 11:55:49 PM
You assume when miners drop out they won't simply monitor the difficulty.  The reality is they will be watching both the exchange rate and difficulty and checking the calculators and as soon as it is profitable they will jump back in.  The other thing to consider is most miners are hard headed.  GPU mining went negative ROI for many higher cost miners and the fall in difficulty lagged price by months.  Miners just clung on hoping for higher prices or that other miners would drop out first.  Miners are very quick to start and very reluctant to stop.  When mining becomes consistently negative margin for high power cost miners they are very likely to sell their rigs to lower cost miners.  Remember if margins are squeezed for the average miner those high efficiency miners (low power costs, cheap maybe used rigs, low J/GH) have much larger margins you aren't going to be able to drive difficulty up enough to force them out with any small fraction of the hashrate.

Still even if miners did act rationally all the time and had the same power costs and were vulnerable to being shaken out in mass it wouldn't work.  Difficulty is directly related to hashrate.  Your numbers are hard to follow because you switch between weeks and days?  All that matters is difficulty.   When difficulty drops miners will add hashing power, when difficulty is to high miners will add hashing power.   Say the attacker has 10% of the network.  To 51% the network that would mean getting 80%+ of the hashpower to go offline.  That means difficulty falling 80%.  What do you think would happen to ASIC sales (lets pretend all companies are in stock but nobody is buying because profits are too low) if difficult fell 80% and suddenly the daily profit exploded 500%?  Do you think a tiny number of miners might maybe think about mining or do you think we would see an explosion of new miners driving difficulty right back to small margin territory (up 400%)?

The simple answer is no that would do absolutely nothing except rack up massive losses for the miner trying that.
2139  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Does this make sense? (Idea to speed up block generation) on: November 08, 2013, 11:44:10 PM
Thanks for the explanation.  Is the current block header the starting point - i.e. will all solo miners be starting with the same value?

No.  The nonce range is only 2^32 or ~4 billion values (in hindsight mining algorithm would be a lot cleaner if Satoshi had made it 64 bit nonce but no changing that now).  This means a 400 GH/s rig for example will go through the entire nonce range on a block header in 1/100th of a second. 

There is more info two posts up but all miners are working on UNIQUE block headers and changing them to different unique block headers.  No two miners (outside of badly coded pool) are ever working on the same "work" (blockheader).
2140  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: CoinTerra announces its first ASIC - Hash-Rate greater than 500 GH/s on: November 08, 2013, 11:36:54 PM
Icebraker's nonstop trolling aside which is both annoying and excessive, you say "instead of months between them, there may now only be days or weeks".

Key word is "may", CT is already 30+ days behind tapeout.  Did their original Dec timeline have 30 days of slack?  Were they able to secure a 45 day rocket run like KNC or are they looking more like getting raw silicon back in 70 days plus another say 20 for packaging and another 10 for assembly and volume shipping (KNC didn't really get any shipping volume until 4th or 5th day).  So I am not 100% convinced that they absolutely will make Dec even if they do manage to avoid a major delay.  Dec even with no delay might be predicated on an early Oct tapeout. 

If anything HF stumble gave them a chance of closing the gap, it is entirely possible their OWN stumble ensures they won't.  One thing which may hurt but HF and CT is end of Dec is a flaking time of year.  In manufacturing industry they often have block vacation, reduced hours, shipping timelines slip because FedEX and UPS are at 300% of normal volume.  It isn't just the companies themselves but also every company the companies rely on as well.  Both CT are now in that boat but HF as least still has the possibility (we will see) of getting units out the door by mid Dec and bypassing at least some of that.  CT at best is going to be right in the middle of it.
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