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2121  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s on: November 08, 2013, 11:28:27 PM
Volume just means non-prototype.  The article I linked to was a month old.  There are plenty of similar ones only days old.  The number of 20nm designs for the entire year is a couple dozen.  Did KNC secure one of those coveted slots I doubt it given the number of industry giants who likely will be excluded from 20nm in 2014.   

Still your first claim was:
Quote
KNC also looking to come out with their 16/20nm miner around March 2014.

I think we can agree
a) KNC said nothing of the such
b) March isn't even a possibility for 20nm.
c) 2014 isn't even a possibility for 16nm.

I put money on 2015 at the earliest you may disagree but at least you admit than any 1620nm in March sometime in 2014 is your assumption not a statement by KNC.

The most recent information on KnC and < 28nm is in the 5th paragraph of their latest news update.

Yeah that is what we were discussing already. 

Sure you were bub.

Glad you agree.  Now you are all caught up.
2122  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: how do traders on mtgox/coinbase report their taxes? on: November 08, 2013, 11:27:08 PM
Yes.  It doesn't matter where you buy it though.  The only events the IRS is interested in are the buys and sells, not that you withdrew the coins and sent them to cold storage and then moved it to your hot wallet, and then deposited it to another exchange, and then changed your mind and moved it to another exchange.  

If you buy 1 BTC for X and then sell 1 BTC for y the capital gain (or loss) if x-y

If you want to keep accurate records for tax time you need a record of all your buys and sells on all exchanges and consolidate them together.  Deposits and Withdrawals are irrelevant.
2123  Economy / Speculation / Re: My concern for transaction limit in Bitcoins on: November 08, 2013, 11:22:56 PM
Coding it goes way over my head, but we should have an altcoin whos blockchain contains all the microtransactions, and gets reset every x number of bitcoin blocks when the end result of those gets pushed into the blockchain.

With central control?  Sure.  Not sure I see a way to do it full decentralized and trustless though.
2124  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-11-08 WashingtonPost: Everything you need to know about the Bitcoin bubble on: November 08, 2013, 11:20:57 PM
I don't agree with every statement but overall pretty balanced coverage.  I am amazed at how far the media has come with Bitcoin.  I mean first it was nothing ... absolutely nothing.  Then it was illogical rants, dubious claims, mocking, etc.  Then it was nothing but hype (fueling bubbles).  We are just starting to get into real coverage now.

I like that he in plain English discounts the fallacy of "everyone will hoard so it will fail because it becomes to valuable" nonsense
Quote
As for the idea that the rising value of bitcoins will cause people to hoard Bitcoins rather than spending them, that's based on flawed reasoning. If everyone holding bitcoins expect their value to rise dramatically in the future, then the price will rise now, until some Bitcoin holders are willing to part with their Bitcoins.
2125  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Does this make sense? (Idea to speed up block generation) on: November 08, 2013, 11:12:42 PM
Well block generation is set at a target for every 10 minutes. 


Currently this is above target. Why would it need to be quicker?
Because half an hour is a long time for a shop owner to wait, to give one example.

There is no overlap, all miners are working on unique work. 
The 10 minute target is a design decision.  It could be 100 minute or 1 minute.  No need to change mining to target a different interval. 
2126  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Does this make sense? (Idea to speed up block generation) on: November 08, 2013, 11:10:46 PM
If we were guessing numbers 0-10, double guessing would indeed make it less efficient by a lot. But we are number guessing 0 - 2^265, so avoiding double guessing will be more than negligible if you look at the efficency.

There is no double guessing.

We aren't guessing just a nonce.

It is:

IF SHA-256(SHA-256(block header))  < target THEN you solved a block.

The block header contains more than just the nonce. 
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Block_hashing_algorithm

One thing it contains is the merkle tree which is a unique hash representing the txs in the block.   One of those transactions is the coinbase or "free coins" transaction.  Every pool or solo miner is going to have a unique reward tx thus the merkle tree is unique and thus the block header is unique.

The only way there is duplicate work is if a poorly designed pool sends the same work to two different miners.  Of course a pool that does that is going to earn <100% of their reward and if they are really bad (like duplicate all work) it would be 50%.  The bad pool fails and miners go to better run pools.
2127  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Does this make sense? (Idea to speed up block generation) on: November 08, 2013, 11:06:57 PM
The only thing you can change is the noonce. It is possible to give a group of people a set of numbers to try as a noonce. They call these mining pools.

As a matter of interest how is the noonce chosen by mining programs when you are solo mining?

Same way you do when pool mining try them all?

Take a block header, append 0x00000000 (zero nonce) hash it, is it good?  nope.  Increment it by one.  Try again.  Keep going until you find a good hash or you reach the highest nonce 2^32 -1. 

When you reach the highest nonce, modify something in the blockheader (timestamp, txs, field in coinbase tx, etc) and start all over again.  Continue until you either die or find a block.  If you find a block publish it to the network and start all over.
2128  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s on: November 08, 2013, 11:02:08 PM
Volume just means non-prototype.  The article I linked to was a month old.  There are plenty of similar ones only days old.  The number of 20nm designs for the entire year is a couple dozen.  Did KNC secure one of those coveted slots I doubt it given the number of industry giants who likely will be excluded from 20nm in 2014.   

Still your first claim was:
Quote
KNC also looking to come out with their 16/20nm miner around March 2014.

I think we can agree
a) KNC said nothing of the such
b) March isn't even a possibility for 20nm.
c) 2014 isn't even a possibility for 16nm.

I put money on 2015 at the earliest you may disagree but at least you admit than any 1620nm in March sometime in 2014 is your assumption not a statement by KNC.

The most recent information on KnC and < 28nm is in the 5th paragraph of their latest news update.

Yeah that is what we were discussing already. 
2129  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: how do traders on mtgox/coinbase report their taxes? on: November 08, 2013, 11:00:35 PM
how do you pay capital gains taxes on bitcoins when you can buy coins off a different exchange, transfer the coins into your account, and sell?

I would guess most don't. Smiley

However moving BTC between exchanges has no effect on capital gains.

If you buy a BTC @ $100 and sell a BTC @ $250 you have a $150 capital gain.  The withdrawing or depositing of coins on an exchange isn't a taxable event.  Similarly people transfer stocks and cash balances between brokerage accounts all the time.

2130  Economy / Speculation / Re: My concern for transaction limit in Bitcoins on: November 08, 2013, 10:49:27 PM
Many problems with bitcoin would disappear if the blockchain were more fully distributed. 
It's just a matter of writing code.


The blockchain if fully distributed.   Every full node has a complete copy.  It isn't possible to be more distributed than that.
2131  Economy / Speculation / Re: $15,000,000 invested in BTC. These coins now are not for sale for many years on: November 08, 2013, 10:46:19 PM
Yeah once again for every Madoff there are 10,000 other fund managers who just do a job and collect a cut off every dollar under management.  Anything can happen but then again a lot of "smart" techy people have lots utterly staggering fortunes of Bitcoins they directly controlled so for someone not tech centered the idea of having it managed has appeal.

Then again the topic was about the fund being used to day trade the market.  It would seem pretty easy to ensure that doesn't happen.  Not sure what kind of audits SecondMarket is planning on using but the nice thing about Bitcoins you can't move them and then move them back in time for the audit without leaving a record. In time I am sure an entire set of best practices for running and auditing a Bitcoin trust will emerge.
2132  Economy / Speculation / Re: My concern for transaction limit in Bitcoins on: November 08, 2013, 10:40:26 PM
Most people (there are some vocal dissidents) believe the tx limit will need to be raised.  The real debate isn't on should it be but how, when, and to what limit.  The 1MB limit wasn't part of the first version of Bitcoin it was added later as a safety mechanism.  It was and is a denial of service prevention mechanism.   With unlimited block sizes someone in the early years (when solo mining your own block with a CPU and later GPU was possible) could create hundreds of say 1 GB blocks and the blockchain today would be measured in Terrabytes.  TBs of real tx data is a cost Bitcoin will have to deal with.  TBs of "attack spam" would have hindered adoption.  Today with much higher difficulty, miners having to watch the bottom line, and a much larger network in general pulling that type of attack would be much harder and more expensive so eventually I think the (1024KB) training wheels will come off.

Still even with a higher block size it is unlikely that every single tx will be on blockchain.  How much is on vs off chain remains to be seen but off blockchain txs are faster and cheaper (at the expense of centralization).  However while a larger block size means more room for on block chain tx it has its own type of centralization in that the resources for full nodes will be higher.  Higher resources for full node mean less full nodes.  The "perfect" block size would be one which balances these two risks.  If you want to take two extremes: 1GB blocks (in 2013) are probably bad, 1MB blocks (forever) are probably also bad, a better block size is probably in the middle. 

I don't have the answer but I know some questions to start thinking about:
How do we get "there"?
What size blocks make sense? 
How do you balance the two different risks of centralization?
Should it be a new higher fixed limit, no limit, or some dynamic limit?  
How do you manage that in a decentralized network?
Should we look to make a perfect change on the first try or maybe a temporary increase to "buy some time"?
2133  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: average confirmation time 18 minutes? on: November 08, 2013, 10:27:13 PM
Ah, difficulty jump? Or the actual drop in the hash-rate?

Neither the time between blocks is <10 minutes.  It is just the number of transactions per 600 seconds is significantly higher than the number of tx per block.

If txs are getting added to the "unconfirmed pool" at a rate of say 0.5 tps and miners are confirming them at a rate of 0.1 tps then overtime the pool is going to get fuller and fuller.  Until either the transaction rate slows down or miners confirm more transactions the trend will continue.

For example at the time this block was mined there were >4,000 unconfirmed tx including paying tx with fees >0.1 BTC.
http://blockchain.info/block-index/438682/000000000000000412cd1343f0361f49c9f493a159ce95e72e220ca1bc3b97b5

The pool/miner decided to include only 130 tx (3% of waiting txs) and more silly only included 0.02 tx worth of fees leaving behind almost 80% of the available paying tx.  I guess this pool/miner doesn't like fees.  Maybe they are making too many BTC already?
2134  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: average confirmation time 18 minutes? on: November 08, 2013, 10:19:50 PM
For whatever reasons (chance or intentional) there is a much higher than normal number of no fee and low priority txs awaiting confirmation.  Also it appears the average block size has been lower than normal.  Not sure if pools are being more conservative or it is one large miner, or just the shift in hashing power from larger block miners to smaller block miners.

Put it all together you got more transactions per second and less transactions per block.  Confirm times are going to go up.

http://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=


Still miners pools need to step up their game.  Blocks are downright tiny.  <200KB.  <100KB?  Recently there was a 47KB block (130 txs) with >5,000 tx awaiting confirmation.
It is one thing to delay/block low priority tx and spam w/ no fees.  It is another one to cap your blocks so small that hundreds of paying txs are waiting 2 or more blocks for a confirmation.

I think miners need to start having a discussion with their pool operators.  Yes larger blocks mean a small increase in orphans but most miners and pool operators should be forward looking enough to not want to kill the goose.  When Bitcoin is <1 tps and <20% of even the 1MB hard limit and thousands of tx are just idling it just is bad PR.  Everyone talks about mainstream, forget mainstream how are we going to handle even 1 tps if miners can't start clearing backlogs of txs now?
2135  Economy / Speculation / Re: Great New Crash on: November 08, 2013, 10:02:45 PM
Can you define conviction in this context?

The the rise is sustained, it has set a new floor, it shows a new leg upward, etc.

However as pointed out MtGox has lost marketshare so volume is a false indicator.  We would need a chart of all exchanges combined price and volume to draw anything from it.
2136  Economy / Speculation / Re: Great New Crash on: November 08, 2013, 09:58:05 PM
The price has only doubled once...all other crashes came after at least 4 doubling.

Twice?

Capitulation after the last crash was ~$70.  Doubled would be $140.  Doubled again would be $280.  Doubled again would be $560.  Doubled again would be $1,060.
If we hit $500 in a straight shot without a breather I would sell off some (always some, never all) and not lose sleep. If it hit $1,000 I would dump a lot more and be confident that I get another chance.
2137  Economy / Speculation / Re: Great New Crash on: November 08, 2013, 09:55:10 PM
What does it mean when there is almost no "Volume" like that?  Yet the price goes way up?

Large moves with little volume show less conviction then large moves with high volume.
2138  Economy / Speculation / Re: $15,000,000 invested in BTC. These coins now are not for sale for many years on: November 08, 2013, 09:50:29 PM
Not for sale for many years assumes of course that they aren't going to try using those coins to crush the market and buy up cheap again.

Fortunately the markets are getting deep enough that this is getting harder and harder to do, but you never know.

Well it is a trust.  The operator is obligated to hold the coins for those who have shares in the trust.  The operator using the coins to play super whale day trader would be violating the law and give the shareholders 15 million reasons to ensure he is sued into the poor house.  Remember this is Pirate's HYIP Ponzi this is a trust eligible only to sophisticated investors with a certain net worth. 

Lol, like with Madoff or Allen Stanford? I guess their schemes weren't so publicly known beforehand, but as we've seen with the majority of other Bitcoin "trusts", you can't prove much one way or another with an "o noes we bin haxxed" story. Has the safe storage of money ever been so motivated by being knowledgeable and competent?

Meh SecondMarket is pretty well established and has a good rep.  For every Madoff there are 10,000 funds which follow the rules.  If Second Market "loses" the coins they are getting sued.  This isn't some anonymous guy living in his mom's basement with no assets that only has to worry about getting doxxed or having unpaid pizzas show up as his door. 
2139  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com on: November 08, 2013, 09:28:33 PM
Perhaps a cost saving measure.

Perhaps? Smiley

It is the single most expensive component on the boards other than possibly the ASIC itself.
$20 ea and removing 4 per board is $80 per board or $320 per Jupiter.
If they shipped 5,000 Jupiters that is $1.6M USD.

I think we can safely say it was definitely.

Do we know around how many units they shipped? I've missed the post.  That's money that will go towards their next mask so that's good news Cheesy

Guesstimating from the 70% of all coins comment means 2.0 PH/s to 2.5 PH/s shipped.

Not sure how money towards the next mask is good news for you or me (unless you own shares in KNC).  New mask means potentially superior hardware at an even cheaper price point which means more miners and higher difficulty and less return on our existing hardware. 
2140  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Bitcoin exchanges are just like banks. on: November 08, 2013, 09:26:21 PM
They hold, monitor, put limitations on you coins. Hearing plenty of these stories about these exchanges, so i don't understand why people call it a "decentralised currency" since it's certainly not the case right now with these exchanges who act just like Banks which we find so corrupt.

Don't use an exchange then.  You can't opt out of the banking system if u hold dollars, even if you choose not use a bank your money is still affected by the fractional reserve system.  You can CHOOSE to not use an exchange and just use Bitcoins.  Maybe it is tougher but nobody said it is going to be easy and perfect.
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