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4641  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: August 30, 2013, 10:38:43 PM
I think patience is the biggest obstacle that AM investors need to overcome. People act like putting together a 50 THs farm is nothing more than pre-ordering 100 baby-jets.

well, we had that done some time ago.  It seems like getting a 50 TH/s farm up isn't too much of an issue for FC and team, but keeping it at 50TH/s and expanding beyond that is a significant hurdle.

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FC has been planing expansion from the beginning and has been doing great.
up until about a month or so ago, and expansion has completely stagnated.  

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The bears have been loud recently and have used this two weeks of lower hash-rate to get the lowest share price, but I don't think it will last long.
based on what?  I don't see any signs of the mining operation improving, and hardware delivery has been stalled waiting on the new blades.  

Has anyone considered what 65 TH/s of 130nm tech uses in power?  65 TH/s @ 8.5 J/GH is ~ 550KW or >2200 Amps @ 240V.    They have enough floor space, power and cooling to support >550KW of equipment.  If they are planning to migrate to more efficient "next gen" tech and they are near capacity why pay for the cost to expand if they don't need to. To illustrate say AM's 2nd gen chips are ~0.6 J/GH at the wall.  The existing space, power, and cooling could support not 65 TH/s but >900 TH/s.  If FC knows superior tech is coming and they are close to their limit on power that their current buildings can handle why would they want to expand to additional buildings rather than sell the excess rigs at what I consider to be a very good price.   The selling price isn't leaving that much net profit on the table.  So while you wait for 2nd gen chips, maintain the existing farm and sell excess capacity to improve cashflow.  When the 2nd gen blades are ready, replace the existing farm with current one, sell of the old tech and expand the farm to 1 PH/s.

It is very possible that AM will NOT expand their hashrate to more than 50 to 60 TH/s until they can replace existing tech with next gen tech.


on edit: edited for brevity and clarity.

4642  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Litecoin Price to hit $25? on: August 30, 2013, 10:17:41 PM
Maybe 10%, merely because it's less cumbersome than BTC.

If Silk Road add LTC, then I would expect it to soar in value - so a 20% might not be too fanciful

If Amazon and NewEgg started accepting Bitcoin I would expect BTC to soar in value.

The question you got to accept yourself is WHY would SR start accepting LTC?  SR exists to make money.  They make money when their merchants make money.  Why would accepting a less know currency with less liquidity and on which most exchanges requires an exchange to BTC before going to fiat help their merchants?

4643  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Ixcoin TODO on: August 30, 2013, 10:12:39 PM
Why the sudden interest in ixCoin?

Or do we simply have more ASICS so they're trying to maximize profits?  I know I'll merge mine when/if I get my ASICS.

Bitcoin hit $142 in Mt Gox today.  I said roughly 10 days ago we'd hit $150-$200 in the next 2-3 weeks on rumors or an ETF license.  Looks like it's right on time.  ETF should go live in the next 60 days, I suspect.

That will absolutely change everything in the crypto coin world.  This is only the beginning!
its not interest Mr Delusion...
Merged Mining is free! you get ixcoins for free, all you have to pay is the cpu cycles the ixcoind needs Tongue
You dont need to be interested in ixcoins at all, most ppl who do MM probably dump their coins to BTC anyway.
this was always the case, so if btc hashrate is climbing fast, ixcoin will too!
the same happend for namecoin, devcoin, i0coin.

This.  To put it into perspective Namecoin difficulty went from 31M to 41M and is projected to go to 55M with next difficulty change.  It is almost triple the difficulty of IXCoin and still increasing by more than 100% a month.  Bitcoin difficulty is likely going to increase by at least 500 million between now and the end of the year.  If 10% of those new ASICs merge mine one or all of the coins their difficulty will go up by 50 million.
4644  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Guesstimate thread for total ASIC pre-order hashing power [MODERATED] on: August 30, 2013, 09:36:18 PM
Don't forget Bitfury's private pool(at least I believe it is his pool) -> https://ghash.io/. I haven't been keeping up with it but I know it has grown to 100 TH/s very quickly. This has nothing to do with the 100TH(now 200TH) mine. Wouldn't be surprised to see Bitfury just maintain 20% of the network for months to come given how efficient his chips are.

edit: Just realized this post may not be useful for the purpose of your thread. Just something that should be considered though given the opportunity that Bitfury has to replace ASICMINER as the 800 pound gorilla on the network. If ASICMINER's 2nd generation chips can compete with Bitfury you could end up with a large chunk of the network held by those two.
This is a single person with this hasing power?


Single person is probably not accurate.  It is a single entity I imagine it takes more than one person to build, manage, and maintain it.
4645  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Guesstimate thread for total ASIC pre-order hashing power [MODERATED] on: August 30, 2013, 06:23:13 PM
Updated BTCGarden & 100/200TH project (based on Bitfury).

I think it may be important to start considering the inability for all companies to meet sales quotas.  Take BTCGarden for example their main run 1.5 PH/s is 130nm arriving in Nov with a selling price of $14 per GH/s.  I just don't see that being popular giving the rising hashrate, and the fact that power will be more important in 2014.  I think ~6 PH/s by end of 2013 is probable and would be willing to wager at least that much has already been pre-ordered.  Sales beyond that I think are more questionable.  I see Cointerra ($8 per GH & 0.7 J/W) being more likely to fill their orderbook than BTCGarden ($11 per GH & >7 J/GH). If I get a chance I may break out "pre-sold" (as in already paid) from "planned capacity" (which may not be able to attract sales).   

Another thing to consider is the combined total is ~15 PH/s.  This is getting close to the electrical break even point for the less efficient miners.  These two topics go hand in hand.  The hardware rollout gives us an idea of how quickly we will approach the break even point for various devices.  Beyond the BE point we will begin to see the least efficient hardware "retire" and that is going to slow hashpower growth.  Anyone interested should probably read both topics even if you disagree with my assumptions you can come up with your own.
4646  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com on: August 30, 2013, 05:49:51 PM
why KNC can't show us the chip to double their sales and calm this almost 400 pages thread?

Because they don't have the chips.  They have never indicated they received the chips and chip delivery is going to be newsworthy.

In KNC defense they have massively over-engineered the boards from a power and cooling standpoint.  The largest unknown is going to be actual TDP and with the boards they showed they have a lot of flexibility.   Assuming the have sufficient cases, fans, and heatsinks on hand and at least the initial weeks worth of boards are already assembled (minus the ASIC) in theory they could get 48 hour turnaround on completed boards.   Have partially assembled boards at assembly house and drop ship them enough chips.  Once they hand assemble a couple of test prototypes assuming no problems have the assembly house do a rapid run and overnight delivery.  The subsequent weeks can be done at a slower pace in a single run.

 I think BFL has created some unrealistic expectations but you have to remember they are incompetent. This isn't an endorsement just an observation.
 

I don't want to ask for refund, start flame or bitching KNC crew here, but some REAL explanation about progress will be really nice. Statement "we are still on track for our delivery towards the end of September" is not enough for thousands dollars orders when we have got end of August

[/quote]
4647  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s on: August 30, 2013, 05:35:18 PM
So anyone have any guesses which foundry it is going to be?

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... has been released for 28nm fabrication to a well-known, leading-edge foundry ...



I don't think anyone other than Samsung, TSMC, UMC, SIMC, and GF have 28nm capacity. TSMC is the most likely choice but I am going to guess GlobalFoundries.

On edit:
Forgot SIMC.
4648  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: August 30, 2013, 04:55:38 PM
    So then my dream for ASICMINER can't come true  Sad Thank sucks. There's no way to develop a chip that would share it's hash power with the operator and ASICMINER? If someone could figure out away to do this it would not only be good for the producer of them but it would be great for the network as a whole.
     Anyway thanks for the critique guys guess i gotta put more thought into it, i just don't get how else you franchise mining? How do you think he plans on keeping his franchisees honest and paying him for running the hardware?  

You are essentially talking about hardware level DRM.  Can it be done?  Sure.  However currently ASICs are relatively "stupid".  They have no idea what they are doing and that is a great thing.  You use "smart" and insanely cheap microprocessor to do the high level thinking and you connect them to banks of ASICs which are glorified calculators.  Yeah they are amazingly cool in terms of efficiency and speed but they are brain dead stupid.  They have no "concept" of what mining is.  They take a binary blob, double hash it and compare it to another binary blob to see if it is smaller.  All the "smarts" are in the miner software running on a cheap off the shelf microprocessor.

Moving all the mining logic into the ASIC would be very expensive for essentially no gain.  It could be done but the high level mining logic isn't a bottleneck so you aren't going to make it faster, and you certainly aren't going to do it cheaper then mass produced microprocessors running  open source code.  Still you would be able to "lock" the chip down ... until someone figures out a way to hack it and shares it with everyone on the internet who in mass disable the "mining tax".  All DRM to date has been broken, someone would figure out a way to break this too.   I mean people spend collectively millions of hours hacking video game consoles so they can play pirated games for cheap.  This is a box which makes money and hacking it would allow you to make MORE money.   If people are willing to devote so much time to hacking hardware to play cheap video games, how much time do you think they would devote to hacking hardware which makes free money?

4649  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Playing with my new Kill-a-Watt meter! on: August 30, 2013, 04:04:20 PM
And I learned that 730 watts + 560 watts + 1130 watts (which totals 21 amps) running all on one 20 amp breaker didn't trip it off.  Might be a cause for concern there.  I forget if anything else was running on that circuit breaker at the time.

That is normal.  Circuit breakers are analog mechanical devices they aren't digital switches (20.00000A = on 20.000001A = off).  At just above the threshold it will take a while for the breaker to trip sometimes minutes or even hours.  At 30A it would trip within seconds but not "instantly".  At 40A it would be very fast probably less than a second.  At 10,000A it would be in less than an AC cycle.

The entire electrical code is designed to be conservative though.  The wiring for 20amp circuit can handle more than 20A.  If you use continual loads (like running miner 24/7) you should derate the circuit by 20% (12A on a 15A circuit, 16A on 20A circuit, 24A on a 30A circuit).  The reason is that circuits assume a duty cycle.  When current is lower the conductor will cool down.  An always on circuit is more stressful.  You will notice that a 30A Datacenter PDU has a circuit breaker at 24A.  The 20% derate is why.

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My apartment voltage stays at 115-117 for the most part, and I found the Volt-Amp setting interesting, but measuring in WATTS is the gold standard for current measurement as far as I'm concerned.  Until someone gives me a reason to think a VA measurement is more relevant.

You pay for watts.  So if you are interested in economicals watts is what matters.  For ATX power supplies the power factor is pretty close to 1 so there isn't much difference anyways. 
4650  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Guesstimate thread for total ASIC pre-order hashing power [MODERATED] on: August 30, 2013, 07:36:39 AM
And where is 200TH mine? Bitfury chips. ghash.io is private bitfury pool, different story than 200TH mine.

link?
4651  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: A RAM based fpga LTC miner on: August 30, 2013, 06:34:57 AM
A million Quark question: where all the GPU hashpower will go when this thing will be released?

We don't know if this thing will be released.  It may not be economical yet.  It is an inevitability that dedicated devices to mine LTC (and clones) will eventually be created though.   The creators made sure of that by crippling it's memory hardness (LTC 128KB max scratchpad vs Scrypt default 16MB)  I would imagine when that happens most GPUs will end up on ebay.
4652  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: A RAM based fpga LTC miner on: August 30, 2013, 06:21:40 AM
I'm not watching.

I am surprised BFL isn't already accepting pre-orders for a 1 MH/s "Litecoin Single" and 100 MH/s "Litecoin minirig" with delivery in 4-6 weeks (TM).
4653  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: August 30, 2013, 05:05:42 AM
1) Hey Rebelution anyone ever tell you that you are an ass?  The only one being smug or condescending is YOU.  Try rereading the thread.  I don't mind being wrong, I have been wrong a lot in my life.  If you're never wrong you aren't learning.  At one time I didn't believe pool jumping could affect rewards of static miners in proportional pools.  Lots of passionate debates back and forth.  Meni had to utterly school me seriously, before I realized I was wrong.  It was a great learning experience and better helped me understand block solutions.  The point is he provided numbers, scenarios, and counter arguments.  You came in and said (paraphrased) "You're wrong the numbers don't seem right to me".  Really? That is your way of opening up a intellectual discussion in an non-smug, non-condescending manner?  I would hate to see it when you are trying to be insulting.

2) Bitcoin mining IS a poisson distribution.  The fact that you don't believe it doesn't change the fact that it is.

3) You are right we DON'T know the hashrate but we don't need to.  If Friedcat supplied more data (like # of hashes for each block and since the last block) we could do a more accurate assessment.   Still you may not have noticed I said "for 10% of the network".  We can calculate the probability that a theoretical entity with 10% of the network would only find 0 blocks when the expected value is 3.6 in a poisson distribution.  That happens to be 2.7% which is why I said ~3%.  Similar calculations have been used to ensure a pool isn't cheating its miners.

3a) I did fail to consider the network is operating faster than the target of 10 minutes per block, so it should be an expected 4.7 blocks  not 3.6 blocks in 6 hours for an entity with 10% of the network hashrate.  I gave credit to that correction.

4) If the probability that an entity would only find 0 blocks in this six hour window is 3%, then there is a 97% probability that the event is because the actual farm deviates from the hypothetical one due to one or more reasons which may be of interest to a miner.

Reasons such as:
* the farm has now power or connectivity.
* the farm has been forked off the main chain due to a bug and the farm is finding >0 blocks they are just not seen by the rest of the network.
* the farm is no longer 10% of the network.
* the farm is duplicating work due to a bug (more than one rig looking for the same solution).

Modeling the probability of a hypothetical farm is useful to see just how unusual an event.  Miners shouldn't be concerned about variance ("bad luck", "good luck") but not all deviations from the expected are variance.  It may be the expected is no longer what is assumed.  For example a farm which is offline has an expected outcome of 0 but not knowing that we assume the farm has an expected 3.6 because it is online and has 10% of the network.  The lower the probability that the event would occur, the greater the possibility that there is a reason other than variance for the deviation  The probability an entity with 10% of the network would find 0 blocks in 6 hours is 3%, however the probability that it would find 0 blcks in 24 hours is 5.5*10^-7th.  Either one could be due to "bad luck" but I would be more concerned the latter is due to the farm being offline or some other difference which makes the actual farm different than the hypothetical one.
4654  Economy / Securities / Re: [BitFunder] IceDrill.ASIC IPO (500 Thash Mining Operation powered by HashFast) on: August 30, 2013, 04:34:45 AM
anyways.. all investors beware, do your own research, do the business name search and you will all see this is a fraud.  have a good day

Thank you for the advice.  I searched and your right... er wait the word I was looking for was wrong.  I do understand if you were confused on how the search form works it is massively complicated with one text box a set of choices (could just try them all if you can't read) and a submit button. Let me know if you want me to make a youtube video on how forms on the intertubes work.

4655  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: August 30, 2013, 04:04:38 AM
As per blockchain.info, there is an average of 7.58 minutes in between each block.
Then in a period of 6 hours, 47 blocks would have been found.

Good point.  I forgot the network is running faster than expected.  I assumed 36 blocks in 6 hours.
4656  Economy / Securities / Re: [BitFunder] IceDrill.ASIC IPO (500 Thash Mining Operation powered by HashFast) on: August 30, 2013, 03:53:49 AM
I just did a U.S. business registry search for Uniquify and it doesn't exist in the database.  Seems sooooo legit.   Roll Eyes  Let me guess -- offshore company?

Yup you got it.  See the scam is go good that back in 2011 Uniquify designed some DDR controllers and had the tech patented.  
http://www.design-reuse.com/news/25960/ddr2-ddr3-us-patent.html

Then in 2012 they signed a multi-year deal with Samsung.  The sole purpose was to make them seem credible so they could trick you into buying a rig from HashFast in 2013 which didn't even exist at the time.
http://evertiq.com/design/25770

Not to mention the articles in various industry journals written by their CEO
http://www.uniquify.com/company/newsroom/uniquify-in-the-news/

Hell they even bought exhibit space in an industry conference in June just to flesh out the scam
http://dac13.mapyourshow.com/5_0/exhibitor_details.cfm?exhid=UNIQ&CFID=92538423&CFTOKEN=b688f4f8a05ccb8-97408AC3-D8E5-2078-08D492754CB01EE1


That is some dedication man.  This "scam" started 5 years before Satoshi wrote the Bitcoin whitepaper all to trick you VolanicEruptor but they didn't get away with it.  Your brilliant intellect and the help of the scooby doo gang cracked the case.
4657  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: August 30, 2013, 03:34:23 AM
Calculations to support these probabilities?  They do not seem accurate to me.

That is the great thing about numbers, they don't need to "seem" to be accurate.  They either are or they are not.  You can compute them yourself and know definitively their accuracy.

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It's just that you write that as if you know what you talking about, but you clearly do not.
So you already know how to calculate and validate or invalidate it.  
4658  Economy / Securities / Re: [BitFunder] IceDrill.ASIC IPO (500 Thash Mining Operation powered by HashFast) on: August 30, 2013, 01:26:28 AM


Uniquify did the chip design and they aren't cheap and they don't do work on consignment.  Seems about the most expensive way possible to run a scam.   Lets see.  In order to scam people we should hire an expensive IC design firm, pay them up front, have them design a SHA-2 processor that beats most of the competitors .... THEN instead of just selling it we will pull a scam. Huh  


However the reverse scam gets even better.  HF reports tape out is complete and there will be a joint press release with the fab.  So when setting up a scam, the best thing to do, it pay a ton to highly rated IC design firm for a design your don't need, and then make the scam more believable by paying a million more to a foundry to complete a tapeout and begin a wafer run.  Then when you get the chips instead of delivering them ... scam.
4659  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: August 30, 2013, 01:13:04 AM
I know the 6hr average doesn't mean squat, but...

http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=1,2,3,4,5,6,7
http://blockchain.info/blocks/ASICMiner

no blocks AT ALL for the last six hours!?! Shocked

There is a ~3% chance of 0 blocks vs 3.6 blocks expected in 6 hours is due to luck.
There is a ~1% chance of 0 blocks vs 4.8 blocks expected in 8 hours is due to luck.
There is a ~0.2% chance of 0 blocks vs 6.0 blocks expected in 10 hours is due to luck.

Assumes AM is operating at 10% of network hashrate (well technically 10% of the hashrate required to sustain the current difficulty), if AM is lower then the chances would be higher.
4660  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Guesstimate thread for total ASIC pre-order hashing power [MODERATED] on: August 30, 2013, 12:48:32 AM
One question you may also want to consider, with the manufacturers that have a promise to increase the hashing power in certains circumstances, how much will that then ultimately add to the 6PH estimate you have? 

I had already included HF and I added 0.5 PH/s to Cointerra to reflect 20% "bonus" for late delivery.  I am not aware of any other company offering additional hashrate capacity.
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