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4841  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Electricity prices on: August 24, 2013, 04:16:07 AM
Generally industrial (not to be confused with commercial) customers need to not only use a LOT of power but also agree to a mininum demand.  Depends on the utility but usually it is around 100 KW.  Note LW is an instanteous value, 100KW doesn't mean 100 kWh a month it means 100KW continually.  Like hooking up 100x  1,000W power supplies 24/7/365 forever until your contract ends.

A LOT OF POWER.  

Even if you wanted took your house couldn't handle that kind of power.  Most homes only have 100A or 250A mains so that limits them to 12KW or 30KW of continual load.  Still energy becomes heat.  100KW of electrical gear is like 300,000 BTU/hr.  Your AC couldn't cope eventually the air temp would get hot enough to ignite stuff.

Still if you really feel you have a need for that kind of power (building a 100 TH/s farm) rent some warehouse space and your utility will happily sign you up for an industrial contract.  Usually you will need to agree to power for 12 to 24 hours and pay a penalty when you don't use the agreed to power.  Yeah thats right industrial customers contract for a certain demand (i.e. 100 KW) and if in a particular month they use less ... they will pay for the 100KW PlUS they pay a penalty for not using enough power.
4842  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: BFL MiniRig Line:Concerned on: August 24, 2013, 03:28:18 AM

I'm very concerned and have not too much hope that any of the Minirigs will pay back. Our only chance would be a refund, maybe we should see how we can work together to get our money back?

I have a minirig order from March of 2013. They have refused my refund. I am going to pursue legal action with a very good friend who was an attorney at Federman & Sherwood for 5 years and recently took a better job. This case is exactly their bread and butter. If you have been refused a refund and are interested in your legal options, please PM me.

Thanks.
This is what I love about the instant gratification crowd... "not too much hope that any of the Minirigs will pay back" and They have refused my refund. I am going to pursue legal action.

Personally, I hope you request AND get your refunds.  That way, 6 months or a year or 2 years down the road when all the bitcoins you WOULD have carefully mined and stored since the receipt of your unit become worth 10-20x what you paid for it, I can laugh at your for your shortsightedness and stupidity.

Counting on some possible future rise in exchange rate to "profit" is idoitic.  Try this through experiment on for size.  His $66,000 in rigs is the equivelent of ~ 622 BTC today.  It is very likely if it takes months for those rigs to be delivered that they will mine 622 BTC. Couldn't he get a refund ($66K), use the cash to buy Bitcoins (622 BTC) today and then when 6 or 2 years from now you laugh at him that the coins he could have mined (<622 BTC) are worth 10x as much he laughs and shows you he has even MORE bitcoins (622 BTC) which have also increased 10x?

However you calling him stupid is proof BFL will never go bankrupt with customers like you.
4843  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Guesstimate thread for total ASIC pre-order hashing power. on: August 24, 2013, 02:33:36 AM
Did the bitfury numbers include the 100TH (now 200TH) mine project?

No.  Will add.
4844  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Guesstimate thread for total ASIC pre-order hashing power. on: August 24, 2013, 02:33:05 AM
If their die size is indeed that small then 2 PH/s seems likely but I don't think the die will turn out to be that small.  I will make a note in the OP and let others weigh in though.  Given the use of 55mmx55mm package and the power consumption I believe the die is much larger at least 20mm x 20mm and that is being conservative.  That would put it at more like 15 TH/s per wafer or ~375 TH/s per batch.  Two runs would be up to 750 TH/s although my guess is the die is larger than 20mm x 20mm.

The package:
They are using a 55mm by 55mm package.  With flip chip packaging it is technically to fit an 11mm die to a 55mm package but would be rather bizarre. Yes using a larger package helps heat dispersion but it has diminishing returns otherwise CPU and GPU would have giant packages the same size as the heatsinks they ultimately will need.  

The power:
The quote estimates size by using BFL logic and shrinking one core from 65nm to 28nm and then scaling out.  That assumes KNC will have comparable GH/mm2 as a 28nm BFL but if true they should also have comparable GH/W.  However BFL is 6W/GH (at 65nm) and scaled down would probably <1W/GH, yet KNC is reporting 2.5 GW/GH.  There isn't a 1:1 relationship but power consumption generally scales with die size.  Another data point would be HF which has a 18mmx18mm die (28nm) which is ~1/3rd the quoted size yet has a power consumption of 0.6 GH/W.  To believe their chip will be 1/3rd that of HF but use 4x the power seems less improbable.
4845  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Guesstimate thread for total ASIC pre-order hashing power. on: August 24, 2013, 12:45:53 AM
Didn't hashfast partner with icedrill for 250-363th for November? (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=269216.0)
Friedcat, he has more money than anyone, has said he would have a petahash ready for the end of the year. (Looking for source).


Good point I hadn't really considered any other mining bonds/companies because they are generally already included in miner/chip sales however this is an exemption.  I added the lower end of their projected range to the OP.
4846  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Will kWh/hash/sec ever go low enough for mass decentralized mining? on: August 24, 2013, 12:02:35 AM
B) The only way I could see power efficiency becoming important is if manufacturers started including Bitcoin hardware inside their equipment without informing their users. Could you imagine if every Dell or HP desktop tower had an ASIC built into the motherboard that mined whenever the computer was on? It wouldn't be much, but when Dell or HP get literally thousands of ASICs mining for them, it can add up. Lets say the chips were capable of a few GH/s, but used less than 1W. No user would every notice 1W increase in usage. An ASIC could be connected to any internet-ready device: switches, modems, routers, computers, cell phones, PlayStations or Xboxes, etc. The new PS4 and XB1 both have AMD APUs with a 8-core CPU and a beefy GPU. What if it was built into the firmware that they would mine LTC to a secret pool when you weren't playing a game?

K I'll take off my tin-foil-hat for now. Just some very tired ramblings. Tongue

The IP addresses of the mining nodes are recorded (that, and the hash rate increase would be hard to miss).  So how could this be done surreptitiously?

It wouldn't need to be. You would get refunds based on your machine's earnings. Pretty good idea. Here' your new XBOX, if you leave it plugged in all the time we'll mail you a cheque every month.

Or even better free xbox arcade games, points, special in game items, and other "cool" bonuses.  Call it the xbox lottery.  You get a little bit everyday and randomly some people win more.
4847  Economy / Goods / Re: [SOLD] five 1 ozt Credit Suisse Gold Bar .9999 Fine (In Assay) on: August 23, 2013, 11:57:31 PM
Sold.  Thank you to everyone who showed interest.
4848  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: CoinTerra announces its first ASIC - Hash-Rate greater than 500 GH/s on: August 23, 2013, 09:54:11 PM
That does seem high. How do you get those numbers?

Simple multiplication.  It is what 27 PH/s would cost at the various price points offered by various vendors. (i.e assumming they could deliver today buying 27 PH/s from BFL would cost you ~$1.35 billion).  In order for the hashrate to rise to 27 PH/s that means someone had to buy 27 PH/s of gear.  At the current hardware prices and exchange rates I don't think that is likely.

I guess another way to look at it is how much hashing power (in USD) do you think has been bought.  My guess (SWAG) is that it isn't enough to push us to 27 PH/s as fast as you think. Note this doens't mean buying more hardware is a good idea certainly not at current prices but I think the law of large numbers is going to slow the rate of hashing power growth.


4849  Economy / Goods / Re: [WTS] five 1 ozt Credit Suisse Gold Bar .9999 Fine (In Assay) on: August 23, 2013, 09:46:10 PM
Possible sale in progress.  Coins are unavailable unless deal falls through.
4850  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Novec 7000 Project [immersive evaporating cooling] on: August 23, 2013, 08:21:56 PM
I will install 15 avalon in a space of 80cm and hopefully with this chiller is sufficient but the truth is that i have no idea.

http://www.hailea.com/e-hailea/product1/HC-2200BH.htm

It is weird that the company gives all the specs except the important one. If this reseller is accurate it looks like it can "remove" (transfer from water to air) up to a 3300W heat load.
http://www.orionairsales.co.uk/hailea-water-chiller-hc2200bh-1800-watt--2200-litre-cooling-capacity-1796-p.asp

That would make sense 3300W heat transferred / 1800 W power = COP 1.83   Larger (think whole house) heat pumps have a COP of 3 to 4 and cheaper ones close to 2.5.  So 1.83 at peak capacity for a smaller unit makes sense.

Your experiment has got me designing a immersion cooling system.   To lower operating costs I am considering a two stage cooling loop.  "Hot" water from the condenser is pumped to an aircooled heat exchanger (radiator and fan assembly) which lowers the temp to within 5C to 10C (depending on how large/expensive of an assembly you want.  Preferably this would be outside so the waste heat is simply dumped.  Now in cooler temps this alone likely would be sufficient but on hot summer days it might not be enough so the water then flows to a chiller and back to the condenser.  The only issue is picking the right boiling temp.  Air cooled heat exchange is more efficient the larger the temp difference between water inlet and air inlet.  Water is never going to be hotter than the immersion boiling point.  

Have you found a suitable condenser.  That has actually been harder then I thought it would be.  Really one just needs a bundle or tubes, nothing more complex.  I am sure a radiator would work but that doesn't seem optimal.
 
4851  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: August 23, 2013, 08:08:47 PM
Did AM just hit an all-time high for hash rate?



Anyone know how to contact the site creator?  It would be more useful to show some longer terms.  i.e. if ASICMiner has 50 TH/s deployed how much effective hashing power does it have (including downtime, lost connectivity, orphans, etc).  Something like changing the chart to 6 hours, 24 hours, 7 days would be more useful.
4852  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: August 23, 2013, 07:59:45 PM
Update

Why has the hashrate dropped the past weeks?
It dropped in different few days. Some of them are internal hardware/network glitches, some of them are luck based. We haven't identified any form of DDOS attacks recently though.


It sounds really strange to me that at this stage of network growth there isn't a regular report of such attacks against ASICMiner or other entities. I expected many people buying up shares and then ddosing the competition.

If there was it would be pretty easy to prevent.  Just don't ever have your mining farm ever talk to the outside world.  Send everything through VPS running bitcoind as a relay.

Mining farm bitcoind ----> relay bitcoind ----> rest of world. 

If things get real bad keep a dozen cheap VPS running bitcoind as an insurance policy.  If a relay node goes down due to DDOS then the mining farm switches to the next one (or two) on it is round robin list.  Given the low frequency of blocks (even 10% of the network is only a block every couple hours) it would take forever to find a DDOS all the relay nodes.
4853  Economy / Goods / Re: [WTS] five 1 ozt Credit Suisse Gold Bar .9999 Fine (In Assay) on: August 23, 2013, 07:52:46 PM
Bump.
4854  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: BFL announces 28nm 600GH/S blade for $4680 on: August 23, 2013, 07:28:26 PM
They have announced fake unicorn miner only to have possiblity to say to customer...

Customer: my miner is not profitable as you ship, it will mine at loss!
Bfl: sorry, you could upgrade to monarch and you didn't, fool, it is your fault

Corollary:

Customer: my monarch is not profitable as you ship, it will mine at loss!
Bfl: sorry, you could upgrade to "super monarch" and you didn't, fool, it is your fault


FYPFY

Wait for it.  

March 2013:  
BFL announces the worlds first 20nm Bitcoin ASIC; the 10TH/s "super monarch" liquid hydrogen * cooled miner.  Available for order today at a low introductory price of $10,000.01**.  Thats right a BFL first, early buyer price guarantee.  Price will rise to our normal retail price after the first 100,000 introductory units are sold so buy early for the highest ROI.  Estimated delivery in June 2013***.  Using a mere 0.2 W/GH the Super Monarch is supplied the 2KW of power with the conveniently included #2AWG power cables for connection to an onsite plasma torch power supply ****.    Upgrade today (or don't complain that your existing pre-orders are unprofitable we are trying to help you out here)*****.



* PayPal has a $9,999.99 limit on transactions and will not provide us an exception so we are unable to take PayPal.  It has nothing to do with forced chargebacks or anything like that.  PayPal only allows $9,999.99 and we are selling our units at $10,000.01.  It just can't be fixed.  ** Liquid hydrogen not included.  After the first 100,000 introductory units price will rise to standard retail price of $10,000.02.   *** Our lawyers require us to clarify that delivery date is not June 2013.  We guarantee we will estimate your delivery date by June 2013.  See what we did there.  Pretty clever huh? **** Plamsa torch power supply and home wiring upgrade not included.  ***** Existing undelivered monarch pre-orders can upgrade for a 10% upgrade fee. Existing undelivered SC pre-orders can upgrade to Monarch for a 10% fee and then upgrade their Monarch to Super Monarch for another 10% fee.  Seriously you expect two upgrades for only a 10% fee.  


 
4855  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Has anyone compiled a guestimate of the amount of pre-orders on: August 23, 2013, 06:36:02 PM
You should put down knc for some starting number and see where the discussion goes from there. 500th can't be an underestimate.

500 TH/s makes sense to me.  Bitfury capped their Aug sales @ roughly half that.  For startups there is limit on how many orders can be processed in a timely manner.  Even mundane things like assembly, testing, packing and shipping.  BFL with their ~2PH/s obviously doesn't care they won't be able to deliver all thoses orders for some time but buyers are more sophisticated now.  KNC indicated two days in they had sold out of units available in Sept and they haven't indicated that for Oct yes.  So at most two months of orders, 250 TH/s ea.  Yeah that works.

I think it is a good starting point.  I would want something more credible to move it higher.  It gets us within an order of magnitude.  It is highly unlikely they only sold 50 TH/s or 5 PH/s. 

I wish buyers would demand companies provide transparency on units sold (like HashFast did).  New buyers have a right to know how what slice of the pie they are getting, and existing buyers will want to new buyers to know this to dissuade them from buying.  Only the company benefits from hiding the information.
4856  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Has anyone compiled a guestimate of the amount of pre-orders on: August 23, 2013, 06:14:47 PM
BFL: 7PH and rising.

Got a link or breakdown.
4857  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: CoinTerra announces its first ASIC - Hash-Rate greater than 500 GH/s on: August 23, 2013, 06:05:27 PM
But I doubt it's a reasonable estimate as it would represent about 50x the current hashing power, or add another 27000+ TH.

That's a lot of hardware, even at 400GH/s per unit (≃67K units).

Sure, it's a worst case estimate. But don't forget, difficulty is going to hit 65M today, so only 40x gets us to 2.6B. 100% increase each month gets us to 1B difficulty by end of year. That's not that unreasonable. There's a lot of hardware that's coming online Q4.

At $8 per GH that would be $216,000,000 in hardware. (Monarch & Cointerra)
At $15 per GH that would be $405,000,000 in hardware.  (Hashfast)
At $20 per GH that would be $540,000,000 in hardware.  (Bitfury October)
At $50 per GH that would be $1,350,000,000 in hardware (BFL, AsicMiner, Avalon, Bitfury August).

Possible but unlikely.
4858  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: CoinTerra announces its first ASIC - Hash-Rate greater than 500 GH/s on: August 23, 2013, 05:51:54 PM
(...)
If 1 trillion diff corresponds to $42k price for BTC, what BTC price of $110 corresponds to which diff?

That should give us the end-point of difficulty leveling off and should also tell us roughly when to expect that to finish levelling.

≃2.6 billion diff = ways to go.

That'll take about 14 difficulty adjustments at 30% each. I think we'll reach that by end of this year.

But I doubt it's a reasonable estimate as it would represent about 50x the current hashing power, or add another 27000+ TH.

That's a lot of hardware, even at 400GH/s per unit (≃67K units).

Remember that assumes free hardware.  It is just electrical cost  = value of Bitcoins mined.  Any higher difficulty and one would be mining at an operating loss.  Most people aren't going to buy a $5,000 box which lets them covert $100 into $100 in BTC.  I mean imagine MtGox required a $5,000 fee just to open an account.  Would you?  That is essentially what we are talking about.  So as difficult rises buying more hardware will be less attractive and at the break even point it is completely unattractive.

You could consider it asymptotic, I don't think difficulty will reach break even electrical cost but it does provide an upper bound.  Obviously if break even electrical is ~2.6 billion it is kinda silly to project difficulty to reach 1 trillion.  Miners would be mining for a >95% loss (convert $100 in electricity into $5 in Bitcoins).  I don't think most people would do that given they can just flip the switch to off

Not sure what numbers were used for the 2.6 billion but I used an average GH/W value for the network based on all ASICs released/pre-ordered so far.  It is only a guesstimate but without hard numbers it is difficult to know more.  Another way to say it is that unless either efficiency significantly improves (i.e. 0.2 W/GH or lower) or Bitcoin exchange rate significantly rises (>$200 USD per BTC) it is highly unlikely difficulty will go beyond that.
4859  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Don't be a hypocrite on: August 23, 2013, 05:42:08 PM
When Satoshi released the bitcoin software,  he did not advertise, this forum didn't even exist yet.
I follow tech news a lot  and I didn't even know a project like this was in the works.

If I launch my own coin without announcement on this website, do you consider I would mine fairly?

The site didn't exist the project began in a place where it would find possible supporters a cryptography newsgroup.  He wrote and published the white paper nearly a year before the launch and was active on the newsgroups both before and after the launch.

If you launched something under similar circumstances yes I would say you launched it fairly.  I would also point out with a high difficulty getting in on day one was really that important.  This is different than launching something with a difficulty of zero so that the equivalent of 200 days worth of blocks are mined in the first fourty eight hours.  That isn't fair regardless of if it is advertised here or not.
4860  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: CoinTerra announces its first ASIC - Hash-Rate greater than 500 GH/s on: August 23, 2013, 05:25:14 PM
Dissuade me from buying.

1) It likely will be last to market.  Even if one or more companies are delayed (or never delivers) you can expect at least three well capitalized companies will be shipping in significant volume before this release date.  That is a bad starting position.

2) ROI% is highly correlated to starting difficulty.  The further out the start of mining the more uncertainty.  The bigger issue is that given all the pre-orders and all the other companies with release date over the next couple months there never has been more uncertainty to what difficulty will be in 90 days than at any other point in time.  Having a launch after that makes a buy right now very risky.  Since your ultimate ROI% depends heavily on what the difficulty is when you start mining even if you are 100% certain you will have the chip on 1 December right now you are essentially gambling that difficulty will be low enough.  You might be right but you also might be wrong.  As we get closer to December the uncertainty will be less (because we will see the rate that new hardware is making it to the market and can project future rollout rates).  Right now at this price point you might as well go to Vegas and put $14K on the pass line at the craps table, save the other $1,600 for one awesome weekend either way.

3) Once other companies clear their backorders they have no incentive to keep prices high.  The NRE is paid, the gross profit margins are extremely high and they all have a product which devalues based on difficulty.   That creates a perfect scenario for a pricing war.  Worst case scenario a company like bitfury clears their Oct pre-orders, sees Nov sales flat line and cuts prices 75% for delivery in two weeks because they estimate a competitor will be clearing their backlog by December and they want to capture the sales while they still can.  You took all the risk and some noob buying in late November gets a unit quicker and cheaper.

4) A lack of details.  Ok they don't have the chips yet I get that.  However the site has nothing.  It is a marketing brochure.  Give us something.  How large is the case?  Will it be rackmountable?   Do they have some initial PCB layout?  What do they intend to use for a controller?  How do they plan to handle the heat?  500 GH/s is a large hot die.  Some details on the chip, package, heatspreader would be nice.   Have they done any thermal simulations on the proposed case (airflow, heatsinks, etc).  None of that requires an active chip.  A watt is a watt.  Ceramic heating elements in a case would provide assurance they can remove the kind of heat necessary. Even simple stuff like how big is the PSU?  Can it be used on a 120V 15A outlet (max of 1440W)?  Would really suck as an American to find out that due to wattage it will require a 240V outlet if you don't have one.

For the record I don't think it is a "scam" or fake.  Given the people involved I do believe they have the talent and connections to launch a product. That doesn't mean it is a good buy though.

Simple version:
least amount of details
highest system cost
latest launch date
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