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141  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 14, 2015, 10:40:36 PM
Lost of discussion on eMunie. What would you like to know?

As for the inference that MV=PQ is broken and/or pseudo-science, that's not the entire the story. 

The theory is sound, but all prior implementations have been flawed.  Why?  Humans!   The only way to efficiently and accurately control supply prior to emunie was to have a central governing body analyze hundreds of reports on the economic health and these reports are generally delayed in their ability to provide "timely" information (e.g. months or quarters old since it takes a while to collect and distribute).  Accordingly, these delays add a whipsaw/bullwhip effect when utilized for monetary policy since they are acting with imperfect information. 

With a systemic method of monitor/response the ecosystem can maintain the supply/demand balance much more rationally.



We agree on the premise that up until now implementation of it has been flawed. But I conjecture you fail to see that you will fail too. Why? Because humans! Don't see yourself above that...Supply/Demand is broken too.

I have a degree in Supply Chain Operations and 20+ years of experience.  I don't think that managing it is broken.  There's a whole world out there that's been doing it for decades.  You should check out APICS and their knowledge on the application of it.


What I mean is the notion that when demand falls supply must increase is flawed. Supply can be so low that demand actually falls. In the context of supply chain management where you operate within a most times rather simple system compared to the world economy, sure you can manage it. My objection is to apply it to what we are talking about here. The notion that in an economy you can manipulate demand through supply is flawed. Just look at the QE happening. It is supposed to stimulate the economy, but it doesn't reach the goal because there is not a lot of confidence. You are ignoring other factors.

That doesn't mean I do not appreciate the efforts undertaken in trying it out.
142  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 14, 2015, 10:00:42 PM
Lost of discussion on eMunie. What would you like to know?

As for the inference that MV=PQ is broken and/or pseudo-science, that's not the entire the story. 

The theory is sound, but all prior implementations have been flawed.  Why?  Humans!   The only way to efficiently and accurately control supply prior to emunie was to have a central governing body analyze hundreds of reports on the economic health and these reports are generally delayed in their ability to provide "timely" information (e.g. months or quarters old since it takes a while to collect and distribute).  Accordingly, these delays add a whipsaw/bullwhip effect when utilized for monetary policy since they are acting with imperfect information. 

With a systemic method of monitor/response the ecosystem can maintain the supply/demand balance much more rationally.



We agree on the premise that up until now implementation of it has been flawed. But I conjecture you fail to see that you will fail too. Why? Because humans! Don't see yourself above that...Supply/Demand is broken too.
143  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 14, 2015, 09:55:26 PM
The golden age of mankind in my understanding was about 1870-1912. The prices were not stable, there were +/- 30% moves annually based on natural factors, but the trend was that money (gold) gained purchasing power about 0.5% per year.

Since that is pretty much the only period in history when money has gained purchasing power, and I also happen to hold it as the best and most worthy of imitation, I also support the idea that money should increase in value.

It of course increases in value only if the economy using that money grows faster than the money supply.

That is part of the concept in Nassim Talebs Anti-fragility. You must have these natural swings of volatility. If you suppress it it causes a major boom, instead of several smaller self-correcting ones.

Stable prices as a goal is extremely myopic.


The golden age of mankind in my understanding was about 1870-1912. ...

what about


Well that came crashing down quick with intervention.
144  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 14, 2015, 08:33:43 PM
I am sorry that your explanation did not inspire confidence to invest in it. Despite my totally non-tech background, I know reasonably well how Monero operates, and it should not be impossible to gain the same understanding from emunie, although not from that explanation  Tongue

Yes, I would not recommend anyone make investment decisions from random forum posts, but I suspect you already know that Smiley Everyone needs to do their own research and make their own mind up. I was skeptical of emunie for a long while, but I am excited by their attempt to use the basic truth of the Quantity Theory of Money (MV=PQ) within a P2P network where all vaiables are known in real time, to achieve a worthwhile goal of price stability. Whether they achieve that is uncertain, but if they do then things will change quite a bit.

Why is this simplistic economic equation MV=PQ so popular, even among many bitcoiners ? It's pseudo science in my opinion.     

Even? There is just as much pseudo science here as anywhere else.

There is nothing wrong with MV=PQ. It is a tautology though. The issue comes when people try to make inferences using it, often holding values constant when they should not be.


Not only holding values constant, it's a too simplistic observation that doesn't take into account other variables. Such as confidence in the government, or in p2p world confidence in the dev team or community. We see it in central banking. We have seen QE in USD for a long time now, and people keep screaming for hyperinflation but miss the context that it's a reserve currency, and the largest debt market. Money flow in and out of countries and currencies. It's not about the supply as much as it's about confidence. (and note the 'supply' of use is mainly through debt which has to be repaid).
If you can't make inferences from it, does it have any use?

As to the actual emunie, you can't know all variables within the economy at all times. It is hubris and disingenuous claiming so. The goal of price-stability being worthwhile is highly debatable, as that exactly doesn't take into account all other variables. Price stability over what? A day? A week? A month? 10 years? 1000?
145  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Parent Calls 911 When School Will Not Release Child. Refusal To Take Common Core on: April 14, 2015, 07:41:39 PM
Another good subject started by wilikon.

Looks like the retail industry is prepping for the impacts of the common core math program:



The first thing I thought when looking at some of the curriculum is that the common core math program is designed to make as many of our citizens as possible be terrified mathematics and completely dependent on 'those who are considered expert' to do even the most trivial of estimates.




But that's 3... hands..  Shocked
146  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 14, 2015, 07:33:07 PM
I am sorry that your explanation did not inspire confidence to invest in it. Despite my totally non-tech background, I know reasonably well how Monero operates, and it should not be impossible to gain the same understanding from emunie, although not from that explanation  Tongue

Yes, I would not recommend anyone make investment decisions from random forum posts, but I suspect you already know that Smiley Everyone needs to do their own research and make their own mind up. I was skeptical of emunie for a long while, but I am excited by their attempt to use the basic truth of the Quantity Theory of Money (MV=PQ) within a P2P network where all vaiables are known in real time, to achieve a worthwhile goal of price stability. Whether they achieve that is uncertain, but if they do then things will change quite a bit.

Why is this simplistic economic equation MV=PQ so popular, even among many bitcoiners ? It's pseudo science in my opinion.     

Aren't we just in these days worldwide witnessing that the equation is rather stupid and doesn't fit? It is pseudo science (and wrong at that even).
147  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 14, 2015, 09:05:15 AM
variable emission depending on need=eMunie

which is just about to launch

How does it work (mods - again please allow 10 lines)?

It doesn't. So far just vapourware.
148  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 13, 2015, 11:34:30 PM
Quote
Quote
Quote

So no economic reasoning whatsoever to the choice of approx 0.9% inflation?

There is plenty of economic reasons, first being to secure the network,[/b] without network no transactions, like rpietila said its close to what gold is now. 1% is bellow the long-run ideal inflation on a large scale economy (believed to be 2%). 1% runs of the risk of deflation with eventual lost coins it will become de-facto deflationary in the long run.

I didn't say tail emission was a bad idea. I agree with it. It just shouldn't be a "magic number" value. And Monero is NOT gold. Most everything about it is quite different than gold. There seems to be no logical reason to choose that value based on "that's how gold is".

It wasn't logical, it was indeed a magic number (at least 1% was; 0.3 coins/minute is derived from the 1%/year) chosen at the start more or less arbitrary manner based on subjective views of what was useful to do. If it turns out to be a disastrous choice with horrible consequences, then Monero will fail. This is an experiment.




Sure, we can just say "hey it is an experiment". But wouldn't it be nicer to have a logical economic reasoning with maybe not precisely predictable results, but at least an intelligently planned results? I already see interesting brain storming in the last few posts. Generally the less magic numbers, the better. Something for Monero Research Labs maybe...



EDIT: If I'm dragging this on in the wrong thread just ask and I'll happily move it elsewhere.

I think it is befitting to realise that "intelligently planned results" does not just happen, especially in such an inherently wishy-washy subject as economics. It's akin to hubris to believe we can "fix" it with the "perfect formula", because the world and the economy is such a dynamic place. There are too many variables inflicting upon that little special reward percentage for THAT to be the 'magic number'.

I can get behind the "let's experiment based on a finger in the air" approach as a 'better than' solution. Especially because no currency is eternal, and eventually something else and better comes along and Gresham's Law applies.

With a low percentage of 0.9% I do believe that coins lost will be larger than the emission.
149  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: April 13, 2015, 07:07:48 PM
Who owns the address monero.org, someone is developing it

We're not sure - at this stage it appears that they are linking to the binaries on getmonero.org, but as it is somebody who is unknown it should be treated with caution. The fact that they link to MinerGate (a pool most likely operated by the BCN scammers) is also quite concerning.

Community sites are always welcome, but this is not obviously a community site. To anyone coming across it they would think it is the official site, which makes it especially dangerous. Perhaps they are trying to build up some SEO, after which they can just change links to whatever they want.

It looks like they are setting up a shop too.


Quote
<meta name="generator" content="WooCommerce 2.3.7" />
150  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: April 13, 2015, 07:03:40 PM
if you have 2 addresses, one is a real address (with private key) and one burn address, then you can publish the viewkey of the first one and see all the transactions made from this address to the burn address.

Are you sure? I think what you would see as destination would be a stealth destination (maybe corresponding to the burn address, without any way to prove it).


This.

To prove/show a transaction you must have a view key, which you can't obtain without a private key, so I guess you can't burn coins without a third party trust provider (a notary?).

In Bitcoin you can just create a valid address (vanity like) for which is almost impossible to have obtained the private key, I don't know if this can be true for cryptonote addresses, I guess you can, but again you end up without a way to see transactions.




Can't you just set the mix-in so high that the coins are redistributed back to the miners?

Heh..  That's good out of the box thinking.  But will that not rape the blockchain?

No need to set mixin really high, you can just pay the whole thing in fees if that's what you want.

Though I don't think that's what he wants...
I'm quite certain this address isn't that difficult to create; I just haven't had any luck finding what exactly the public keys are massaged with to create the "address".

BTC is like this:
1. = RIPEMD160(SHA256(public ECDSA key))
2. = networkbytes(00) + 1.
3. = SHA256(SHA256(2.))
4. = 2. + 1st four bytes of 3.
5. = Base58(4.)

Now what is done to XMR?

The issue is that with ring sigs coupled with stealth addresses, without having the viewkey (derived from the spend key), you can't really see the ending balance. Having a burn address where one can't prove the existing balance does no good.

That's true, not perfect, but it's the closest thing I currently have to burning. If ppl can see confirmed outgoing transactions to this address it can be used as a good enough proof for the burning process. one can assume that if an outgoing tx. appears in the ledger so it means a corresponding incoming tx. exist. and because it's highly improbable that anyone will have the private key to this address, it means those fund are unspendable.

If someone here can answer luigi1111's question he might be able to create the address Smiley

It also means that a third party i.e. your service acts as escrow, which adds a layer of concern. One could have a large chunk of the funds on the address with the view-key... and then just not transfer it to the burn address, but another xmr address. And it's gone.

There is a difference though if we're talking big ipo-style burn, or small minor amounts burn that continuously gets burned.
151  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: April 13, 2015, 06:53:21 PM
if you have 2 addresses, one is a real address (with private key) and one burn address, then you can publish the viewkey of the first one and see all the transactions made from this address to the burn address.

Are you sure? I think what you would see as destination would be a stealth destination (maybe corresponding to the burn address, without any way to prove it).


This.

To prove/show a transaction you must have a view key, which you can't obtain without a private key, so I guess you can't burn coins without a third party trust provider (a notary?).

In Bitcoin you can just create a valid address (vanity like) for which is almost impossible to have obtained the private key, I don't know if this can be true for cryptonote addresses, I guess you can, but again you end up without a way to see transactions.




Can't you just set the mix-in so high that the coins are redistributed back to the miners?

Heh..  That's good out of the box thinking.  But will that not rape the block chain?

I'm not convinced of that idea. If one were to know of such burn-events happening, one could opportunistically mine for it. (At the same time. No guarantee you get the block of course, but pointing hardware to several pools would make likely.)
152  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: April 13, 2015, 06:33:28 PM
I'm not sure if this has been discussed before?

OpenAlias is easy and user-friendly (once employed) but isn't there an inherent risk in abuse?

It would be trivial for a cracker to exploit it by changing the xmr recipient_address to one under his control. Another easy exploit is that pretty much any employee at the company which hosts your domain or subdomain can easily change the xmr recipient_address. That is especially handy if the nefarious part (for some reason) knows of large or recurring payments.


It's always a matter of tradeoff between convenience and security. If you're worried about large payments, just enter/check the address by hand instead of using open alias.

I just thought there should be an "oh, by the way" disclaimer attached to it.
153  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: April 13, 2015, 09:54:05 AM
I'm not sure if this has been discussed before?

OpenAlias is easy and user-friendly (once employed) but isn't there an inherent risk in abuse?

It would be trivial for a cracker to exploit it by changing the xmr recipient_address to one under his control. Another easy exploit is that pretty much any employee at the company which hosts your domain or subdomain can easily change the xmr recipient_address. That is especially handy if the nefarious part (for some reason) knows of large or recurring payments.
154  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: April 13, 2015, 08:14:01 AM
After the disappointment (or worse) of the FreeBazaar project, people are going to be understandably more reluctant to give direct donations to even a legitimate project.

Until the crowdfunding features of the Monero forum are up and running I'd suggest finding a trusted escrow to hold the funds and release them upon defined milestones (some could be released at start once a funding goal is achieved).

Maybe to save discourse going forward consensus from the community, and especially core devs, could be to loosely only sanction donations if a pre-requisite is met, such as agreement by the project manager to have donations released after met milestones, or that the project manager is already well-known and trusted in the community. Or some such. Otherwise we will keep running into scams, and that could be diminished. When a coredev throws in money it is perceived as sanctioning (i.e. approval) of the project and people behind. I know you are individuals, but...

It looks like Atrides is pulling through, albeit slower than planned though.


Edit: Point:
Edit: You might even be trustworthy, but I will wait till someone vouches for you seeing as you have a Newbie account.

fluffypony donated 50 himself, so i figured that was enough for me to trust. Hope it works out!  Smiley
155  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: April 12, 2015, 04:09:55 AM


Will the Monero Project be able to address any of these considerations?
...

But now we can improve upon that. With a crypto-currency, in theory[1] we have much greater transparency so that the banks can't hide how great their fractional reserves are (market won't accept it because it is too easy to provide the information digitally as contrasted against physical verification of gold on deposit in the 1800s), and the free market can anneal sooner so that banking crisises are less egregious (less volatile and more subdued impacts).

You see the Knowledge Age is advancing mankind. Armstrong is a dinosaur that wants to stay with the old system of a government regulating the banks' leverage. Nah fuck that! Let's move forward with the new technology of money.

[1] Serious problems haven't been resolved yet, such as reliable anonymity (i.e. Tor/I2P is probably a honeypot and Monero relies on either Tor or I2P to obscure your IP), decentralization of mining (Bitcoin being controlled by 1 - 4 pools), real-time transactions, fragmentation of the internet or power outages, etc..

I think that depends on the development of Monero! I mean, its an open source project, so anything can happen, right?

I don't know the Tor/I2P thing. I mean, couldn't the privacy thing (at least with monero) just be achieved with a VPN?

decentralization of mining - the project map has "new algorithm" on it at somepoint, so who knows. I also concur that this is something that needs focus.

real time transactions - i ultimately think most point of sale transactions will just use a cloaked account check. So the merchant software queries the blockchain to see if theres enough in your account, and then executes the transaction. Realistically, any double spend attack requires more coordination than someone buying groceries, doesn't it?

fragmentation of internet - This is particularly interesting, because theoretically if the internet becomes fragmented, individuals making transactions will be segregated into two unique blockchain forks. However, there might/could/should be a way for the two forks to merge if the daemon can verify that all of the transactions on each unique fork were indeed unique. The only possible exploit would be if you could manage to get your private key from one segregated net to the other, so you can have activity on both forks. Yeah, because the longest chain rule would pick one fragmented net over the other, voiding all transactions during the fragment.


VPN's are and can be a honeypot, back-doored or just be handed a warrant.

In regards to I2p there are plenty well described attack vectors. https://geti2p.net/nl/docs/how/threat-model
156  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: April 10, 2015, 10:56:38 PM
There's no need spreading fud in the roadmap thread.

Calling out lying scammers for who and what they are not "fud", it is the duty of any person of integrity. Something you would know nothing about.

Quote: "If you see fraud and don't shout fraud, you are a fraud"
  -- Nassim Taleb (author or Black Swan and Anti-fragility; credit to opennux for the quote).




I'll give you a few more, and they are readily applicable in the space:

Quote from: Nassim Taleb
Most people are sceptical about the wrong things and gullible about the wrong things.

If you take risks and face your fate with dignity, there is nothing you can do that makes you small; if you don't take risks, there is nothing you can do that makes you grand, nothing.

You will get the most attention from those who hate you. No friend, no admirer and no partner will flatter you with as much curiosity.

Success is about honour, feeling morally calibrated, absence of shame, not what some newspaper defines from an external metric.

Economics make homeopath and alternative healers look empirical and scientific.

157  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 10, 2015, 07:32:02 PM
I don't get why people care about coinmarketcap? It's pretty useless imo.

But you can always ask him? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=199685.0
158  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: April 07, 2015, 11:18:24 PM
Listen the interview with our core dev Fluffypony on LetsTalkBitcoin:
https://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/ltb-e202-understanding-monero

Pretty good, way better than David's presentation.

Seem like Matthew Zipkin follows this thread closely, love his last question "Is there anything else you want to add, do you guys need developers?"




Whuuuut. A positive comment.  Smiley Please keep those up primer. It's much better to read.
159  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: April 07, 2015, 06:59:55 PM
David showed me the email conversation and I can thus vouch for him, so what you're stating is utter bullshit. Why would he even lie about this?

Watch your language.

Fuck off

In my opinion you add nothing to this coin or community.

That's in my head ALL the time.  Smiley
160  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: April 07, 2015, 04:02:24 AM
But if they instead generated a unique address(es) for each account, wouldn't that mean that there is no need to deal with payment IDs? I'm ignorant here.  

Monero uses stealth addresses, automatically generating one-time use addresses behind the scenes. The equivalent of generating a unique address, without using a payment ID, would be generating a unique wallet for each Monero customer. It's much more elegant to use the payment ID.

Elegance does not equate to secure. If that seed gets impounded or stolen. Should be diversified and offline for all accounts separately. As I stated, so in an emergency the seeds can be sent to the owners. Unless I an not comprehending something?

This seems to be a weakness in the system compounded by the fact of centralization which in itself is not diversified over multiple markets. That is one big attack vector. It would suck if that key got Stolen/Hacked/Seized before a decentralized exchange came online. MP was bad enough.

In order to operate a hot wallet their web application would need to have access to each of those wallets. If you can compromise one you can compromise them all, so there's literally no security benefit to running multiple hot wallets.

The correct solution is a hot wallet that balances off to a cold wallet, and the only way for funds to get back into the hot wallet (for a run on withdrawals) is by manual transfer, no need to break the payment ID system:)

Why do exchanges not use tokens and only activate wallets for updates and/or withdrawals? Then all wallets can be cold and separate (as well as separately encrypted) for a majority of the time. Sorry if this is a stupid question as I've never really thought of how exchanges operate. Also there would be a higher level of control as during updates the process can be monitored and there can be checks for an inordinate amount of wallets be activated at once thereby adding a layer of checks that can notify operators of suspicious activity. I would think this would make it pretty tough to steal 7000 BTC.


It's likely mostly a business decision.
Altcoin (and btc) exchanges work on one of the premises of being almost instantaneous in transactions. If all withdrawals were manual, it would likely scare away more customers, because it would slow down withdrawals dramatically. And most customers seems to want speed/convenience over security (and also the opportunity to do arbitrage). They would also need more man power to handle all transactions manually. Thus having less revenue, but a larger overhead.

As such every exchange do their own risk-analysis of what they are willing to put in the hot wallet.

There are a few places that do it the air gapped way.
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