You're right about S2F being the popular model on crypto twitter right now. I think you had the right idea though, parabolic increases on an exponential scale. That's basically S2F anyway.

The big goal for me during this next rising event, hyperbitcoinization or not, may end up being correctly calling what the top or high will be.

Given the current geopolitical state, I don't foresee a future where the US avoids some sort of hyperinflationary rout. Everyone at the federal level is like Oprah right now giving out free cars: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pviYWzu0dzk

Oddly enough, even the people in that audience had to pay $7k in taxes to at least keep their cars. None of us Covid relief recipients have to pay anything. It's just free money. Joe Biden gave a speech today about a third relief bill with even more money. This shouldn't be happening.

Historically, currencies don't survive these kind of situations where money becomes so plentiful. There used to be a time where I would imagine this is all some sort of conspiracy to create a Fedcoin or USAcoin or something, but I don't know of anyone at the Fed seriously even proposing a solution to the inevitable problem they are letting Congress create right now.

This isn't going to end well. No one seems to be sounding any sort of alarms about it right now when it is most important to be loudly warning people of the folly taking place.

This is kind of bumping an old post, but hacknoid, if you are still here, would you agree that December 2018 was the low to the start of a new super-cycle? Your latest comment seems to suggest such.

I think it probably was. I've started moving from trying to predict cycles to trying to time long term lows and highs using a "running average variant" of the Mayer Multiple and I have to say, while it has massive periods of inactivity, it backtests very well and seems to time well with periods where I've naturally both bought and sold. It's been nice to have something that does this, but by doing so, I've found that my buys and sells in the past of very low percentages actually served to hurt my long term gains. In some cases, the recommended sale or purchase based on trying to maximize profits recommends selling positions of fiat or BTC in the 27% or higher range (as a percentage of total holdings).

The lows in December triggered three such buys (using fiat presumably gained from two previous recommended sales in late 2017). I'm tempted to throw a decent chunk of both coin and fiat at this new system, but I'm still kind of worried about a "hyperbitcoinization" event as detailed here: https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/hyperbitcoinization/

If such a scenario would happen, it would seem to me that I would be risking sales at an inopportune time, perhaps even as the global hegemony of the US dollar is coming to an end. It's because of this that I'm considering a basket of commodities and other currencies, but I'm even worried that that would be overshadowed by such a hyperbitcoinization event. I'm curious as to what you may think.

Similar to jfaubin, I am also having issues with Cloudflare Kansas City errors when downloading the .ASC file. At some point it appears the hosted firmware file itself started working, but the .ASC file still is not.

I'm not sure I would say Stratum is bad, but I would like to see a new protocol at least considered. Now that we have open source firmware for the S9s to activate ASICBoost and mine freely on other pools I think there will be more interest in this sort of decentralization and possibly more interest in pools that give miners more control.

It's worth considering looking at a new protocol at least, despite whatever political pushback may be expected, there might still be receptiveness to it given enough innovation. I'm glad someone gave this one a look. I'm a bit ashamed to say that I didn't even notice this BIP back when it was originally released.

If you don't really know why you invested and seek confidence or confirmation from others that your investment was a good one, you should not be investing, IMHO.

This does happen, but it's a whole lot more rare in practice. In reality, most attacks come from thousands of compromised IPs [botnets] run by people or organizations looking to blackmail operators into paying a fee or doing something like giving up user data. It has long been rumored that these entities with blackmailing power are often state-run themselves, in order to bully providers into sharing their data with "a trusted anti-DDoS company" that the governments can force to give up plain-text info about their customers more easily. Why bother even trying to get an operative in a position to run the site when you can sniff all the data and who is writing what via an anti-DDoS provider?

Cloudflare regularly provides the US gov't data on its customers. I'm not sure I'd go so far as theymos and say they are basically CIA-run, but I do think they are forced to work with three-letter agencies all the time. If there are any people with principles that work for Cloudflare, it doesn't matter, they have to comply in order to keep their job, and I doubt they are allowed to talk about it even after they have left. Cloudflare itself might have state contracts, or do contracts for other DoD-like agencies and groups, all of which have the specific purpose of cataloging citizens for the government in clear violation of the fourth amendment and chilling the free speech guarantees of the first amendment.


For the same reason that OpenDNS sold to Cisco for a whopping $635 million. DoD contracts are phat loot and the CIA/NSA need the data routed in about who is doing what.

My recommendation, and keep in mind this is really crude, but if you have a good DDoS solution already in place for the obvious stuff, the more devious stuff is going to be something that requires using a combination of logs and data that could be compiled even from a simple awstats page. Sort IPs by page count over hit count and the closer they are to a "1" ratio the higher they increase in bandwidth over time, just auto-ban them.

You could use the time while under Cloudflare to build a good baseline for "normal" user behavior and then define that as your method. You're right about it being difficult to script up a system for this, but it could maybe be done. Your solution already sounds pretty ingenious as it is, but you're right in that it almost becomes a full-time job just keeping ahead of everything when it comes to automating it.

I don't fault you for going with Cloudflare, but even with their assurances and transparency, I still don't trust them. The government will inevitably use them for wiretapping again, and because of gag orders, they will comply. Just as they have in the past.

Even with good equipment, I find it unlikely someone could make a fake one that would past the average owner's muster. Several of us are probably quite familiar what these look like, both tarnished and untarnished and would not be fooled, even by a good fake. Some of us have even opened these ourselves before.

Years ago, I gave away about a dozen of the 2011 error 1BTC coins to friends and family and have told them several times that if they go to sell them they should let me know, then reference me and my forum name so that I can personally vouch for the authenticity of their coin. I like to think it might help, but I don't know for sure if it did because so often it's hard to tell if the legit sales on here are actually legit.

The only legit sale I know of was one I recently (this last summer) had a friend do on Ebay because he insisted he sell his coin.

It's considerably more difficult for shilling to happen here as opposed to other forms of social media, some people have considerable work invested in their accounts and we have metrics and other options to ignore the obvious spam. While I am definitely not a fan of Bitcoin Cash, replacing words is, in some ways, worse than outright censorship.

This is probably a silly question, but can one be both a Copper Member and a Donator?

Hacknoid, I wanted to follow up with you about my $10k projection by the end of 2017. If we are, in fact, in a supercycle, do you think that's still reasonable given what we've already seen this year?

Crypto-finance is a young man's game. Dimon should feel comfortable sailing to Byzantium, now. It's time for the older financial generation to retire and to let the newcomers flourish.

Since it wasn't mentioned yet:
https://glacierprotocol.org/

I don't use the glacier protocol itself, but I have used something similar.

Okay, in light of what you are saying it sounds like he should prefer to use the escrow service then. Thank you very much for your input. It is greatly appreciated.

He's chosen to use Ebay. I purchased a decent sized set of 25 BTC and 1 BTC pieces from Mike in November 2011. This is the first person I know of from that purchase that has decided to actually sell. I've mostly been able to talk the others out of it.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2011-CASASCIUS-1BTC-Casacius-Error-Physical-Bitcoin-FULLY-FUNDED/253116709087

The reason for my post here is to let others know he is selling and to ask a question or two.

He has a new Ebay account and is being asked about escrow for his coin. Does anyone know what that means for an Ebay transaction? A quick search indicates that they prefer to use escrow.com for their transactions, apparently. Has anyone ever used this service and if so, how would they rate it? Thanks.

ICOs are the "stocks" of the cryptocurrency world, IMHO. They'll have their own degree of thrift associated with them, and there will be both good and bad ones. I'm not sure why the SEC took the timid stance that it did other than that they are probably threatened by Bitcoin and thus have to take a weak stance on ICOs. Plus, it's questionable if they even have jurisdiction in many cases.

No. There was also Sirius which helped Satoshi immensely with the Bitcoin project in 2009. My knowledge on the history is limited because I was new at the time, but I believe they both trusted theymos to take care of it in 2010. Sirius gave control of the domains to Cobra. theymos and Cyrus run the forum now. That link appears to be a bit behind the times as BadBear isn't an administrator anymore, he doesn't appear to be even a moderator. He last posted in late 2016 and his account was last active on here in spring 2017.


Satoshi left the project over 7 years ago and there's no point in identifying him anymore. Sirius, who was responsible for porting the code to Linux and getting a lot of early interest (even more than Satoshi) eventually decided to leave the project in the hands of those who were interested in taking it further. The forum grew a lot from 2010 to 2013 and even though the signal to noise ratio hasn't always been the best, theymos and Cyrus have done a great job given the limitations of the software. theymos also runs the subreddit which has grown quite well over the years.


It wasn't donated or purchased. Responsibility was transferred to them. Responsibility is NOT a donation, it comes with requirements. One doesn't simply "purchase" responsibility.


A significant portion of forum funding was used for development of a new forum. At present, the donation address only has 162.64 BTC. Inflows of ad revenue I believe mostly pay the moderators. It's not much but it's better than nothing. Also, there's likely to be future developments and moderation required, and it is important that there is enough funding for decades (if not centuries) of perpetuation of the community, mods, admins, etc. "lucrative" is a loaded word in the context you used.

I remember this thread. I even posted in it:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42514.msg517540#msg517540

Proudhon was pretty active at the bottoms/valleys in price. This guy was a bear longer and further back than proudhon. He was even active in 2011 and judging from his post history he never made any money.

You want proof? Look at BurtW's account of what happened to him.

They never charged him with an actual crime. Just the Bitcoin. And even that wasn't ever fully explained.

I don't understand how you could lose money doing this?

EDIT: Oh, you instantly transfer and sell on an exchange. There are services that will cash your coin out for you and take the hit so you don't have to.