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1061  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 30, 2015, 01:16:33 AM
Spent the entire weekend getting drunk and watching football... what happened?

football and drinking.
1062  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 30, 2015, 12:14:44 AM
Looks like whale-wars at the moment.
Sounds like a series on the Discovery channel.  Grin Is it on tonight?  Tongue

Could be.



They sort of look like Bitcoiners.

naaah, they look like broke leftist enviro-warriors. We could changetip them a shark fin or two.
1063  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 30, 2015, 12:02:47 AM
traders: when you book profits are you accounting in bitcoin or fiat?

who has the coinz makes the rulez.
1064  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 29, 2015, 10:48:55 PM
370's a lock in my mind ... we might hover and dawdle a bit but 380 and on to 400 is where we are heading medium term.

then 500, 600 maybe on a tear again by then.

don't get left behind like the butthrut sold-out bulls and bleeding shorts that infest this place.
1065  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 29, 2015, 11:54:55 AM
shorts getting wary of those landmines yet?

blowing up the sinking lids.
1066  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 29, 2015, 09:49:00 AM
Who expects a year end rally up to 600+ USD?

me, we'll go back up to test $500 again, for sure.
1067  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 28, 2015, 09:03:18 PM
Triangle attempting to converge on the upside...

it's always to the upside according to this forum  Kiss

and generally they have been correct.
1068  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 28, 2015, 03:40:50 AM
Quote
As mining gets less profitable, the cheaper way to acquire them becomes the market, which adjusts incentives accordingly.

this is the mechanism that puts the effective floor under the bitcoin price. And as long as difficulty keeps rising and halvings keep going the floor keeps rising Wink

It's like a ratchet mechanism, speculators bid it up, miners chase the profit and expand operations, difficulty rises, new floor cost<=>price rises, price drops back to floor cost, miners buy at market, speculators pile back in, miners expand, difficulty rises, rinse, repeat.
1069  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 28, 2015, 12:57:02 AM
Why is this important? 14nm is state of the art fabrication technology, ever since the ASIC arms race began btc mining chips have been using old fabrication technology, now they have reached 14nm it means we will plateau in advancement at the same rate as other processor chips ...

The situation with various chips claiming 28-22-20-14nm is that this is not a very "precise" measurement. For example, some components of a chip might be 28nm and some others might be 14nm. There's quite a bit of misleading practices going around with nanometer labeling.

Ideally, detailed specs would be like:

Component A of the chip is: X nm
Component B of the chip is: Y nm
Component C of the chip is: Z nm

Until then you could have a very "stretched" specification based on a single aspect of the chip.

Yes, good points. General point still stands though I think, the tech. advance in ASIC chips is plateauing at the current level of state-of-the-art fab. processes, or will be in the near future (12-18 months), and this will lead to more "commoditization" of mining chips.
1070  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 28, 2015, 12:51:15 AM
Quote
Reward halving  is no different from doubling hashrate.

They are different things ... one is the reward halving, the other is the difficulty doubling (you erroneously said hashrate and hashrate and difficulty are not instantaneously equivalent either).

As I said they are related but not identical, assuming we are both speaking to how they both relate to cost of production calculations.
1071  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 27, 2015, 11:57:52 PM
Quote
According to BW, each 14nm chip in the miner will be able to attain anywhere from 34.6-63GH/s. The power consumption is 18W based on a voltage of 0.59V to 0.76V. This efficiency comes on the back of nearly a year of research and development.

Why is this important? 14nm is state of the art fabrication technology, ever since the ASIC arms race began btc mining chips have been using old fabrication technology, now they have reached 14nm it means we will plateau in advancement at the same rate as other processor chips ... or who knows maybe bitcoin mining ASIC fabrication will begin to lead the world in processor fabrication R&D generally ... and that would be a notable benefit that bitcoin tech. has brought to the world, funding and incentivising R&D for general processor fabrication tech.
1072  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 27, 2015, 11:51:49 PM
http://bitcoinclock.com/

bitcoin cost of production doubles on or around 23.07.2016 ... the floor price will get raised in proportion, one way or another.


Bitcoin cost of production just went up 10.44% on the 24th, and will go up by 12.18% in just 9 days. That's almost half of what the block reward halving will do Smiley

@shorts will be homeless: stop being such a rude faggot.

difficulty and average (network-wide) cost of production is not directly related, but it is closely related ... tech. advances and cost of tech. development come into it also.

Given the same specific processor hardware, yes, cost of production and difficulty are directly related.
1073  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 27, 2015, 11:48:25 PM
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bw-to-launch-nm-chip-and-miner-for-general-population-1445278227

... commodity mining ASIC chips are finally coming to market after 2 years of in-house tech. development (and associated in-house mining).

We are going back to the original GPU-CPU days economics and BTC pricing model once these become commonplace on shop shelves.
1074  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 27, 2015, 11:37:27 PM
http://bitcoinclock.com/

bitcoin cost of production doubles on or around 23.07.2016 ... the floor price will get raised in proportion, one way or another.
1075  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 27, 2015, 09:40:31 AM


MOON time ?
seriously, it happen because more efficient miner are doubling the hashrate as miner are upgrading them. also new player are investing in mining buzz.

There have been several best times ever to buy bitcoin in its short history and they are obvious, miner's know exactly when to buy ... and that is the floor.
Watch out we got a badass over here, augustus trades every floor before he even got his morning coffee.

... I don't trade at all, I just watch ... people losing money, mostly.
1076  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 27, 2015, 09:11:42 AM


MOON time ?
seriously, it happen because more efficient miner are doubling the hashrate as miner are upgrading them. also new player are investing in mining buzz.


... not so simple but .... there are some simple economics and market dynamics at play here that have been in evidence since from the days of CPU mining and overheating laptops and the fundamentals haven't changed. It's still just hardware burning electricity grinding on a processor-hard problem. Tech, and fabrication development curve has muddied it a little but we are reaching maturity and plateauing with that shortly so it will be back to the original game.

I never realised you guys are so far behind the curve on this stuff ... you need to analyse both hashrate and price curve dynamics together.

There have been several best times ever to buy bitcoin in its short history and they are obvious, miner's know exactly when to buy ... and that is the floor.
1077  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 27, 2015, 08:46:06 AM
http://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/bitcoins-journey-from-money-laundering-appeal-to-teaching-the-banks-20151126-gl9gup

Quote
Chowdhry, a professor of finance at UCLA, was asked by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences to nominate a candidate for the prize, and chose Nakamoto because bitcoin "is nothing short of revolutionary".

According to Chowdhry, this will mean huge changes for those working in banking, finance and the law.

"Not only will Satoshi Nakamoto's contribution change the way we think about money, it is likely to upend the role central banks play in conducting monetary policy, destroy high-cost money transfer services…eliminate the 2-4 per cent transactions tax imposed by intermediaries such as Visa, MasterCard and Paypal, eliminate the time-consuming and expensive notary and escrow services and indeed transform the landscape of legal contracts completely,"

read 'em and weep, the die was cast in 2009 ... some people are simply slow to catch on.
1078  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 27, 2015, 08:29:59 AM
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

TA this ...
1079  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 27, 2015, 07:38:52 AM
heh, heh, heh ... derp is strong with this one, it is.
1080  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 27, 2015, 07:02:34 AM
Quote
In my theory, bitcoin will eventually fail because of that increasing hashrate. The overheating of bitcoin mining has risen the costs of the network so high, that the speculator market just can't hold it up. I actually think that these last pumps haven't been deliberate pumps and dumps, but just attempts to break through, that huge backlog of coins that are ready to be sold by the miners, who would be glad to exit while getting ROI.
In 2013 mining was still relatively cheap, meaning people could hold on to their mined coins more easily. Now the coin production cost is high and most of the mining business is built on debt, so selling pressure is getting higher every day.
The future of crypto is about making the monetary system as cost effective as possible. Bitcoin and it's pure PoW concept is just the first rough version of things to come.

thank you very much, you just showed your hand.

You are out of your depth if your understandings of the hashing costings and monetary incentives run this deep. Suffice to say you will lose a lot of money if you are betting on price movements based on these shallow 'theories'.

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