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1081  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: February 24, 2020, 05:44:11 PM
I see these SQRT trend lines being used more now, any rational basis for that beyond pretty coloured line-fitting?

Is there some new SQRT adoption curve dynamics being discovered here? And what is the longer term resolution of that trend, SQRT for ever and ever?

Sigmoids have a basis in technology adoption theory that is plainly logical and have defined beginning and end points that make sense. SQRT can only be a temporary trend at best, although may be applicable for years, decades even maybe. The problem for sigmoids and bitcoin right now is the final end point is still a moving target, 100% monetary adoption seemingly incomprehensible, so guesses at proportions of total monetary wealth that may finally be stored in bitcoin being the feeble best estimates for what shape a sigmoid might ultimately take.
1082  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 24, 2020, 05:28:46 PM
Italy quarantining sections of the country, armed police and military forming physical roadblocks. Food gone from stores.

China not updating infected numbers, same with canada, the states, sweden, a number of non-western countries. Middle eastern countries closing borders.

Things are getting interesting. If you haven't stocked up on food yet, better get it done.

Italy is indeed the biggest blob on the map, excluding Asia.

It should be noted, however, that all four people in Italy that died from the virus were elderly (78, 75, 77, and 84 years old).

... it should also be noted further that people only just started dying in Italy (2 days ago). All it means is elderly/comorbid people succumb first. Younger, fitter, stronger will fight off disease longer but total fatalities are only slightly biased towards older/weaker people on longer run disease progression data from Chinese studies (believe what you will from communists cunts). Italy has an issue, maybe Europe now, there's at least another potential 600 asymptomatic cases who maybe wandering around there they need to find and isolate, fast.
1083  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: February 22, 2020, 04:55:19 AM

Last thing: every time the herd says something, doing the opposite is likely to generate profits.

Right now the herd says we will see a new ATH because of the recent golden cross + incoming halvening.

Make your own conclusions.

I conclude that the herd is wrong also .... btc is going to bull run much further than 2017 or 2013 low:high ratio, and more like 2011 vertical craziness ... begins 3-6 months after the halving peaking around 500k in 1-2Q 2021.
1084  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 22, 2020, 04:23:05 AM
https://news.yahoo.com/rome-unveil-tomb-may-belong-wolf-suckled-king-035218246.html
Quote
Rome (AFP) - An ancient tomb thought to belong to Rome's founder Romulus was presented to the world on Friday, after months of investigation by history sleuths.

The 6th century BC stone sarcophagus, with an accompanying circular altar, was discovered under the Forum in the heart of Italy's capital over a century ago -- but experts could not agree on whether or not it belonged to the fabled figure.

According to legend, Romulus founded the city after killing his twin brother Remus.

The brothers had been raised by a she-wolf -- the symbol of Rome shows them sucking at her teats -- but later fell out over where to build the new metropolis.

What happens to the world when you open up the tomb of Romulus?

Isn't he the lord of the UnderWorld?
1085  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 21, 2020, 10:22:05 AM
... and here's a peer-reviewed paper from 2014 about SARS 1.0.

https://www.peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/SARS-HLA.pdf
and In the conclusion, no less.
Quote
The study of Xu D et al. appeared to provide a good explanation to the paradox between the HLA gene polymorphism and the genetic predisposition to SARS. Because of the unusual virus phylogeny of SARS-CoV, with rapid and evident “reverse evolution,” it is likely that SARSCoV was produced through an unnatural mechanism (such as gene modification techniques).

As I've implied earlier, I think we might have a problem of serious scientific misconduct and rampant ethical deficiencies in the field of virology and bio-engineering that has been festering for almost 2 decades.
1086  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 21, 2020, 10:03:40 AM
fuck me

I think it might be time to panic guys

... panicking wont help, it will make you more vulnerable, it will raise your cortisol levels and may impair your immune system. The antidote to panic is information. Get informed, stay calm, plan ahead and work your plan. (Failure to plan is a plan to failure - Ben Franklin). Get lots of sunlight, fresh air, exercise, sleep and a good diet. A healthy sex/love life, mental wellness and prayer/meditation are beneficial also.

The infection spread numbers are starting to look like most gubmint efforts, except complete border closure yesterday, will be easily overwhelmed. The Japanese, who you might have thought would be the paradigm of OCD cleanliness and efficiency turned a cruise ship with 3700 people on board and one old lady with diarrhea into a floating petri dish of SARS-2 catastrophe. Our healthcare systems are not set-up for this, there is no real training in hazmat protocols, only lots of expensive PPE kit for hazmat theatre and big taxpayer funded bureaucratic agencies creaming it off hoping a real hazard never shows up in their lifetime, or before they can collect their generous gubmint pensions. The general Western systems  response will be worse than the Japanese response on that poxy tub. Already we are seeing infected hospital workers, soldiers, policemen popping up all over the place.

Here's a look at some numbers. Iran's Mullahs in their wisdom decided to withhold information and now suddenly announced 2 dead (then quickly upped that to 9?). What this means is that there is likely at least 2000 people already infected in Iran somewhere. How do I get that? It takes approx. 4 weeks to succumb to this SARS-2 virus and the CFR (case fatality rate) is running around 1-2%, that means 3-4 weeks ago when these 2 people contracted around 200 people were infected in Iran. The case numbers double roughly every 7 days, 200*2^3 = 1600+.

It's a good bet that Western gubmints also, despite risking a furious backlash and Institutional suicide, are withholding vital pandemic information that the public could use to save lives. They are actively censoring the Internet on a scale never witnessed before, ask Google if it does evil? There is something seriously hinky about the testing kits being supplied solely by WHO/CDC. They are exorbitantly expensive, have high false result rates and have been rumoured to come attached with legal requirements for tested patients to sign waivers of liability and gag orders. Seriously strange situation and creating an information vacuum for the virus to thrive in the legalese-created shadows.

The rate of global transmission outside of China is still doubling case numbers every 6-7 days, today that number surpassed 1200. If this continues  by mid-March there will be >20,000 infected confirmed cases and up to 3-4 times that asymptomatic/undetected. There's worse news about secondary SARS-2 infections but it's too depressing to share, if true it needs more data to verify and get a better handle on how widespread the effect might be.
1087  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2020, 10:03:41 PM
.... masterluc?

I don't know much about short term trading but it looks to me like 10,500 and now 10,000 have been rejected.
As a trader, I'd be looking for entry points at 7,500 or 6,000 ... if I wasn't all-in already.

disclaimer: I do not short term trade so my advice is worthless, if someone takes my advice and gets bear rekt shorting, I'll take that as a bonus.
1088  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2020, 03:46:28 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtHYZkLuKcI&feature=youtu.be

... whistle blower japanese infectious diseases professors visits diamond princess and is terrified by what he sees.

I can imagine this is how this will play out in many countries where bureaucrats are in charge and many layers of incompetency have built up to stop good people fight the war. Wearing PPE for bio, chem or nuclear is not all you need, there is training and understanding required to keep the clean and dirty sides separate.
1089  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2020, 11:10:36 AM

The only people who seem to be dying from the Corona virus are the weak and barely alive, anyway.
Two Germans were tested positive for Corona at the start of the month, they were released symptom free and went back to wörk.

I am more worried about the kitten sized locusts.

I'm going to correct this because it may save some people from having a bad life.

The latest numbers are saying that NO age groups, sex or ethnicity are preferentially 'saved' except under 14yo rarely have serious symptoms. ALL other age groups are almost equally badly affected, with a slight bias towards 45-60 yo age group.

Yes, weaker and pre-existing condition patients have more fatal outcomes, as with any new disease.

15-20% of those infected develop serious symptoms. From that group, the 'lucky' ones that survive are seriously messed up, with severe damage, scarring to lungs, weakened hearts, kidneys, immune systems and testicular damage in males. Of the 15-20% developing serious symptoms approx. 25% perish (this number changes depending on level of care, access to ICU bed, forced oxygen ventilators (iron lungs), etc). Some of these may be shedding virus for weeks after recovering, some SARS patients were still shedding after 90 days.

80-85% do not develop serious symptoms but still shed the virus in various media, mucus, snot, fecal matter, blood and tears, perhaps even airborne particulates. They can incubate from 2-15 days and shed asymptomatically.

This is some serious shit and governments are likely not fully informing their citizens of the full extent of the pandemic in fear of spreading panic. If it gains a foothold, it is almost like this virus was designed to maximise the strain, and ultimately collapse, a modern healthcare system, with a massive peak and on-going care for years, perhaps decades.
1090  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2020, 05:39:36 AM
- New cases of coronavirus on cruise ship near Tokyo, raising ship's total to 355.
How many people are on that ship again?

... began with around 3600 people on board I recall.
1091  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2020, 05:22:59 AM

It's far too early to know what's real with this virus.

If you survive the first round of the coronavirus, you end up with fucked up kidneys, a fucked up heart and lungs, your balls quit working, then when you get it again your heart explodes.

edited.
1092  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2020, 12:44:24 AM
And yet, maybe there is a person in the forum who could be a mediator between us? There is no way that this task could not be solved!

... use a dropbox.

Like put your chocolates in a railway station locker, downtown Wuhan for example. If anyone wants them they can ask for the combination.
1093  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 14, 2020, 01:43:24 AM
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1
new paper suggest R_o in the wild between 4.7-6.6!
Even with draconian control measures (like in Hubei) can only reduce to 2.3-3.0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01L-SktgzXc
This guy does an ok layman's summary of the paper's findings.
1094  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2020, 11:38:11 AM
au contraire, far from being a charlatan he is the master ... masterluc is his second incarnation, before that he was lucif https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=50218 and before that maybe he was another too, or maybe mother_of_another, who knows?!  Cheesy Cheesy

... he has called both the 2013 AND 2017 mega waves with almost prophetic vision years in advance. (no-one can get all the details exact but his timing and scales have been too good to be luk, the guy has a skill in waves that is something extraordinary.) ... don't get bogged down in the day to day, week to week, his secular bull calls are for the ages ... i.e. for the HODLers.

I have a sneaky suspicion he was there and called the legendary 2011 Gox spike, but who knows, that would be a myth by then.

ok, so maybe he lost the connection to his private jinn sometime somehow?

something like that ... probably he was so successful in 2013 and 2017 that he doesn't really care that much anymore and only does it now for fun and old times sake. Who really knows? If you read all his words it makes more sense, he knows bitcoin deeply and understands markets intimately also.
1095  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2020, 11:29:44 AM
The guy is the golden goose.

Just to work with your golden goose...... around which period would we visit 6K's one more time?




... month, maybe two in that scenario. He warned specifically that $10,500 could fail ... looks like it did, I dunno. dyodd.
1096  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2020, 10:23:08 AM
... r u really ready?  Grin  Grin

masterluc says $6k for the last time.
Who even is this master Luc.............?  Roll Eyes

a SOMA charlatan from Russia. could be he is banned from the forum. I don't know why.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=144672

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.0;topicseen


au contraire, far from being a charlatan he is the master ... masterluc is his second incarnation, before that he was lucif https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=50218 and before that maybe he was another too, or maybe mother_of_another, who knows?!  Cheesy Cheesy

... he has called both the 2013 AND 2017 mega waves with almost prophetic vision years in advance. (no-one can get all the details exact but his timing and scales have been too good to be luk, the guy has a skill in waves that is something extraordinary.) ... don't get bogged down in the day to day, week to week, his secular bull calls are for the ages ... i.e. for the HODLers.

I have a sneaky suspicion he was there and called the legendary 2011 Gox spike, but who knows, that would be a myth by then.

Quote
Quote
Who even is this master Luc.............?  Roll Eyes

El Dude - He’s a TA guy, a couple of years ago he was right on a lot of price predictions. He’s been wrong on a lot for a while now so don’t worry.

We’re not going anywhere near $6,000 again.

Edit - PlanB is the new messiah, oh & Hairy Smiley

PlanB and Harry are Johnny-come-latelys ... masterluc cannot be so easily discounted and even if we go back to $6k (I give it a 50-50) again the master is looking for $70k+ in the next bull wave (off a $2.5k bottom which he timed and called). The guy is the golden goose.
1097  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2020, 08:16:55 AM
... r u really ready?  Grin  Grin

masterluc says $6k for the last time.
1098  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2020, 06:55:52 AM
... r u ready?  Grin Grin
1099  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2020, 06:11:54 AM
let's all take the ascending triangles to the moon
1100  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2020, 06:05:59 AM

- Hong Kong records at least eight positive test results.

- US military prepping for coronavirus pandemic.

- Healthcare workers, patients and international experts have accused China of under-reporting the number of coronavirus victims in the country as an epidemiologist at Imperial College London said that as few as 10% of
cases were being properly detected. That would put total infected people in China at 900,000+.

- Switzerland, Denmark, Georgia, Greece, Romania, Serbia, Singapore and Spain no longer accepting any letters or parcels addressed to China.

- Apple stopped sending engines to China for their next generation model.


just for the record, I think it is hitting China hard but not 900k hard, stupid CCP fiddling with the numbers wont help them or the world in fighting this thing.

I'm tending towards the optimistic that it might fizzle out, we're not seeing the crazy spreads outside China that we saw in the early days in Wuhan, Hubei.

The R_o is clearly being reduced substantially with the precautionary measures that have been taken so far, both within China and with international travel restrictions, quarantines, self-isolations and case trackings

Cases outside China are doubling every 6-7 days but the last week has been dominated by cases on board the floating petri dish Diamond Princess. (why haven't the cruise industry pitched in to get those people off the boat and into appropriate quarantine quarters? It is a slow burning dumpster fire catastrophe destroying their whole industry.)

The example of Singapore is probably as close to a realistic data set and case study for what might happen in a Western city if it takes hold there and that's not a given.

Let's see how much the bumblefuck British NHS socialised healthcarecan mess this up, already medical staff have managed to become the center of the epidemic and it only just arrived there in the UK. It will be a good case study of how badly it could go.

Don't understand why Switzerland wants to stop mail going to China? Shouldn't that be mail coming from China? Same with the Apple 'engines'?
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