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1441  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 02, 2015, 10:54:26 PM
Any idea why Canadian REI is going through the roof again? another 30-40% increase this last year and 15% last month alone... Part of the decision to sell my home this past month was his strong claim that REI had peaked and a super bubble was to be popped, makes so much sense but instead we have the makings of a new bubble in the market fueled by low rates and affordable mortgages at these rates. By my calculation prices could double here before we get back to the levels we were in 2008 assuming rates stay put. So instead of peaking in october I'm seeing a new super bubble forming and even seasonal bearish trends in REI hasn't had the desired affect in slowing the market down.

Chinese/Indian money still pouring in, although Chinese black markets are being shutdown so I'm not sure what's fueling it so much other than affordability. Now I'm thinking of building another home to take advantage of the bubble relatively soon, but I want to know Armstrong's thoughts since he timed it to peak although I'm seeing the opposite.

asset price inflation, REI is being monetised because fiat savings are being debased by State monetary meddling.
1442  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 02, 2015, 10:52:13 PM
bitcoin is good for doing shady shit because it is good money.

if you cannot do things in private with your money it is next to useless as money, you may as well call it prison credits, casino chips or church indulgences ... w/e it is, it isn't money.
1443  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 02, 2015, 10:40:01 AM
These commodity market routs are worrying just in the huge pricing instabilities they are telegraphing.

Cheap commodities are great and signal healthy technological advances .... usually, but when there is widespread dumping and sell-offs in just about all raw materials, energy supplies, shipping rates some serious shit is UP. I don't know what it is but something big is fucked up for sure. The mountain of leveraged derivatives involved in these markets has got to be sending trading black boxes haywire.

It's like the feeling of dread when you see the tide go way way out before the tsunami arrives. It looks cool and weird but you know its not good, w/e IT is.

May have something to do with Glencore going bust in Sept. and a few other major commodity brokerages getting caught in the trouble liquidating positions widely but I would want to be on lookout for counterparty risks, capital freezing, credit market seizures etc ... nothing happens in a vacuum.
1444  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 02, 2015, 05:47:08 AM
GBTC continues to rise.  $470 coin value.  Is this the true value without exchange manipulation?

quite possibly, and localbitcoins which represents "on the street" demand and supply.

These exchanges are cesspits of manipulations, games and big sloshy pots of FIAT, make-believe numbers. Gox MkIII

largely local bitcoins use exchange prices - but only have a broader spread because the person buying/selling is merely serving as an intermediary to the exchange that the person does not want to register any kind of account (or doesn't have time to)

take a dig into the localBTC trade numbers and you'll find a HUGE upside bias in the spread though

right local seller act as the intermediary and tag on a premium for there services, and some sellers premium is higher then others, no one is going to offer bitcoins at a discount. the price appears to swing wildly because a seller in a small town has less competition allowing him to have a higher premium. also mirco trades ( someone want to buy 10$ of bitcoin ) will have an unbelievable 3-8x price premium , that 10$ trade paints a nasty candle-wick


that reasoning doesn't stack up since a neutral market should have neutral bias on the spread ... why aren't lbtc traders severely underpaying when they buy bitcoins to 'tag on a premium'? ... spread goes both sides of the trade.

it's because the real market is willing to 'overpay' (relative to broken exchange pricing) more than it is willing to undersell ... hence upside bias in the spread (i.e. exchanges are holding the price down) thus good money to be made buying on exchange selling on the street, and that's what I've heard also.

The reason the exchanges can do this are all the bottlenecks that prevent fiat cash flowing freely onto the exchanges (KYC/AML govt capital controls). The exchanges have just become govt. tools of control over bitcoin, price and privacy.
1445  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 02, 2015, 04:54:06 AM
RE: localbtc anybody can link me to the website with all the pretty charts of volume by country?

http://bitcoincharts.com/ that one?
1446  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 02, 2015, 04:40:31 AM
GBTC continues to rise.  $470 coin value.  Is this the true value without exchange manipulation?

quite possibly, and localbitcoins which represents "on the street" demand and supply.

These exchanges are cesspits of manipulations, games and big sloshy pots of FIAT, make-believe numbers. Gox MkIII

largely local bitcoins use exchange prices - but only have a broader spread because the person buying/selling is merely serving as an intermediary to the exchange that the person does not want to register any kind of account (or doesn't have time to)

take a dig into the localBTC trade numbers and you'll find a HUGE upside bias in the spread though
1447  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 02, 2015, 04:29:38 AM
GBTC continues to rise.  $470 coin value.  Is this the true value without exchange manipulation?

quite possibly, and localbitcoins which represents "on the street" demand and supply.

These exchanges are cesspits of manipulations, games and big sloshy pots of FIAT, make-believe numbers. Gox MkIII
1448  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin XT - Officially #REKT (also goes for BIP101 fraud) on: December 02, 2015, 01:42:28 AM
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bitcoin-mining-pool-f-pool-discus-fish-maintains-bip-not-an-option-1449003767

"On the Bitcoin development mailing list, Chun recently suggested raising the maximum block size in accordance with the block halving. As such, the block-size limit would be raised to 2 megabytes as soon as possible, followed by an increase to 4 megabytes halfway through 2016, up to 32 megabytes by 2028."

4MB max in 2016, doubling at the halvings. (2MB would/could/should have been the limit at the drop to 25btc block rewards.)

Growth in the max could be halted or slowed by soft fork if alternative scaling solutions present themselves and are proven to be both functional and desired by the market.  

Code:
Max Blocksize Block Reward Year(~) Native TPS(~)
1MB 50 2009 3
2MB 25 2013 6
4MB 12.5 2016 12
8MB 6.25 2019 24
16MB 3.125 2022 48
32MB 1.5625 2026 96
64MB 0.78125 2029 192
128MB 0.390625 2033 384
256MB 0.1953125 2037 768
512MB 0.09765625 2041 1536

There's something nice about the available space in a block for fee paying txs doubling at the same time the reward is cut.

This could cut either way and one is disastrous for security:

1) If the block space is being fully-utilised and the fee-market is producing optimal returns based on full blocks then doubling the block size at the same time as halving the reward would be a double whammy for miners as more blockspace will lead to a drop off in fees at the same time reward is halved.

2) the other way is speculative but what big-blockers use as an argument, block size doubles and miraculously fees do not drop but the number of transactions goes up so sweet nirvana, bigger blocks brings in more total fees.

Lots more here to think about than simply making blocks bigger. Fees need to pay increasingly for security out into the future and blocks cannot grow faster than the technological progress that can accommodate them on a sufficiently decentralised network. It seems there is probably an optimum blocksize for bringing in the maximal total fees and another optimum blocksize that maximises network decentralisation. Those two criteria are not necessarily compatible and neither of those two criteria maybe fully observable variables given the input metric data internally available to the network (in a control theoretic system analysis).
1449  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 02, 2015, 01:13:21 AM
Aston Martin is not a watered down brand.

The current look of Aston Martin was developed under Ford ownership. The DB7 is riddled with Ford switches. The DB9 has the same Sat Nav as the Volvo XC90.

~40 years ago RR used a Chevy/GM alternator, what's your point?

My car is 26 years old and I keep it for the kick ass stereo. 

My original point was that there are few premium brands that haven't been bought up by one of the large car companys and been watered down.
it's a fair point but Aston Martin still design/build their own chassis, engines and running gear ... few generic knobs and trinkets is inconsequential.

The DB9 is a sweet car Wink did you know DB stands for David Brown as in tractors ... basically it's a flash tractor.
1450  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2015, 10:54:13 PM
I even found a Janet in FIAT/Chrysler management. I was aiming for the moon with this one.
Sad
FIAT is doing well, even if Chrysler is dragging it down.
OSCA, OTOH... RIP OSCA.

I know, I saw. But you don't count.

Besides, OSCA and Maseratis of that era was like Ferrari's made while wearing mittens.

You mean when Ferrari was Ferrari, and not a FIAT with delusions of grandeur?

Let's not go down that road.

Jaguar is Tata.
Bentley is Volkswagen.
RR is BMW.
Lamborghini is Audi, which is Volkswagen.

Unless you're going for a Koenigsegg you're buying watered down brands.

Aston Martin is not a watered down brand.
1451  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2015, 09:43:16 PM

this looks bad, notice how she gagged when she coughed the second time .... this is not just a regular flu cough, something deep in the lungs with large foreign matter mass movement like TB (unlikely) or (yikes!) lung cancer?? or perhaps a tumour higher up in throat or asophagus?
1452  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Permanently keeping the 1MB (anti-spam) restriction is a great idea ... on: December 01, 2015, 09:37:27 PM
So the OP is gone forever? The biggest and most knowledgable Bitcoin advocate from back in the day is gone forever from the "official" Bitcoin forum. wtf

He didn't end up being a scammer like cypherdoc or goat did he?

On Topic: Keeping the spam restriction is a great idea. Probably not forever.

He did actually

Secondly, I'm not aware of any blatant scammery that Gerald was involved in.  I may just not be paying close enough attention, so if you wish to expand on your statement that would be interesting.


Was going to but was posting from my phone. I just was able to retrieve the info from my desktop. It kinda flew under the radar indeed. Here goes:

Quote
Gerald Davis a.k.a. DeathAndTaxes of BitSimple (BitSimple.com) and Tangible Cryptography (tangiblecryptography.com) sought out and accepted $600,000 in fiat and bitcoin from investors in January 2014. These funds were acquired by selling stock in Tangible Cryptography and were to be invested in BitSimple.com.

BitSimple.com shut down bank transfer operations in May 2014. The investors were not informed until August 2014. Mr. Davis was asked to consider dissolving the company in August 2014 after he reported a theft of around $25,000 and no banking accounts. Gerald Davis did not respond and failed to communicate to shareholders from August 2014 to January 2015. During this time a six figure amount of US dollars was redirected to Mr. Davis and members of his family.

In February 2015 Gerald asked us to vote for a company dissolution and scheduled the fist company meeting. The shareholders refused to vote for dissolution because promised finical reports were not delivered.

Gerald Davis then asked for more time due to personal reasons and this was granted. However at this time Gerald Davis is no longer communicating or responding to investors.

Quote
The BitSimple fiasco
Somewhere in early January 2014 (during a chat about immersion cooled high-density ASICs) DaT incidentally told me that he was collecting money for a seed funding of his BitSimple exchange service. I did not even thought about it twice but agreed to buy what is left and ended with 390k from a total of 1200k series A shares. With the total sum of $600k collected, my payment was a $195k equivalent in BTC. Iirc, all of the handful investors paid in BTC, which made this seed funding the first processed completely in the BTC domain. Shares were managed by the gust platform.

I was very well aware of the involved risk, but at the same time I felt it is not worse than putting my coins into pre-orders of mining equipment or into doubious bitcoin companies. After being defrauded and betrayed by so many, my hope was straight and simple: if there is one person to remain honest, it must be DaT - if he did not, it was time to leave this community.

What happened thereafter is what OP is reporting. I was very disappointed to realize that Gerald managed to spend the collected funds mostly to pay his employed family-members - even if most of the time the exchange was not operational due to a missing bank account. Even if this might be legal, it is very unethical and puts him and his intentions in a very suspicious light. Still, I was willing to accept this as business failure when the company is dissolved and remaining assets were distributed to investors (which would give us back some 15%). But shortly after the investors agreed to do so, DaT stopped communicating and is not reachable any more for the past 6 months.


This is a sad ending for a bright shining star.

You too, Gerald?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=998257.msg12620721#msg12620721

such a sad stereotypical pattern emerging ... capital accrues in worthy hands in a healthy system.
1453  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2015, 10:51:43 AM
Good buying opportunity?  Huh

What do you think?

Monkey thinks its a buyable dip NOW.

yep, could be last chance for quantity buying, on the market, sub-400.
1454  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2015, 10:13:49 AM
The correction to a slightly lower price is alright (still above $360, so that's nice) ... but I'm going to go ahead and blame reddit for the crash.

always dumps when the big blocker rektors go on another rampage.
1455  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2015, 07:07:32 AM
http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

wait, the wall is not totally green, localbitcoin swedish krona sold off ... oh noes.
1456  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2015, 07:01:09 AM
so much doubt, worry and fear ... this place has the stench of imminent upside explosion all around

take a look at the set-up, it is classic (and manipulator just got buttrekt)
1457  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin XT and BIP101 - Making Waves on: December 01, 2015, 02:51:06 AM

I would have serious doubts that bitstamp even runs one single full node of their own ... probably outsourced.

you *seriously* beleive that a major bitcoin exchange does not operate thier own node? Something that can be achieved for <$100 with a standalone device and uses <64GB of storage?


get real. you can buy a 1TB harddrive for $50 today and store BIP101-enabled blockchain onto it for years to come. then pay $50 more for a 4TB drive to handle a few more years of growth.  or are you still using the same computer you owned in 1999 with its 1.6GHz singlecore, 512MB ram, and 60GB HDD (all cutting edge)?

I know of several large bitcoin trading institutions that outsource btc operations to API providers ... or worse. It has nothing to do with hardware, they can't be bothered with the IT sysadmin overhead which for them is incomprehensible geek-speak, they are purely money-shufflers.
1458  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2015, 02:46:09 AM
join the wall of shame on faces of #rekt
http://facesofrekt.austeritysucks.com/index.php?id=6

compare your #rektage shorts
1459  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin XT - Officially #REKT (also goes for BIP101 fraud) on: December 01, 2015, 02:17:07 AM
...

Wrong, wrong and more wrong.

The 1MB limit was put in place in 2010, not 2008. Actual bitcoin network upload speed (the real bottleneck) measurements show upload bandwidth for nodes at edge of network is growing at closer to 17-25%. (This disregards data caps for total bandwidth available also).

So you have made a case for 8 MB rather than 1 MB.

Check your math ... at the top-end 25%, 1.25^5 * 1MB = 3MB

Are you intentionally high-balling or your figures just always happily err on your side of the argument? (2008 =/= 2010, 50%=/=25%, 8MB=/=3MB, etc, etc).

The rest of your non-arguments about your residential connection is one ad-hoc data point and the stuff about chinese vertical integration of ASIC (lolwtf?) is simply pure speculation. Decentralisation will be seriously challenged by bigger blocks, it is already and the data points to that not getting any better any time soon.
1460  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin XT - Officially #REKT (also goes for BIP101 fraud) on: December 01, 2015, 01:34:41 AM
...

As per Satoshi's "Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System": P2P is a 'prerequisite' for the system to 'enable' electronic cash.
It does not work the other way around.

But these spammers dont even care about decentralization, so boring.

The decentralization argument is bogus since it ignores Nielsen's law, Moore's law etc. http://www.nngroup.com/articles/law-of-bandwidth/ 1MB in 2008 when Bitcoin was first announced is actually equivalent to 17 MB today. (50% compounded per year for 7 years).

Wrong, wrong and more wrong.

The 1MB limit was put in place in 2010, not 2008. Actual bitcoin network upload speed (the real bottleneck) measurements show upload bandwidth for nodes at edge of network is growing at closer to 17-25%. (This disregards data caps for total bandwidth available also).
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