reposting here ... ... there was a network scale attack I pointed out to Gavin and the other devs after observing namecoin network getting "hung" for months by miners joining and leaving en-masse due to mining incentives and price fluctuations ...
if a well-resourced 'dishonest miner' attacker could build up a significant of quantity of mining power and ramp up hash-rate by bringing on-line an ever-increasing amount of compute, selling all btc the whole way and simultaneously drive price lower over the same period, squeezing out 'honest' miners ... then in a final act take all their mining power off-line during a final dump of price then it would leave the network hanging at very low block solving rate (long confirms) waiting forever for the next retargetting and a low price and take a toll on confidence ... the fix was to allow for a 'special' retargetting on the downside if it hasn't happened after a time-out, not just the set 2016 blocks.
|
|
|
|
|
... there was a network scale attack I pointed out to Gavin and the other devs after observing namecoin network getting "hung" for months by miners joining and leaving en-masse due to mining incentives and price fluctuations ...
if a well-resourced 'dishonest miner' attacker could build up a significant of quantity of mining power and ramp up hash-rate by bringing on-line an ever-increasing amount of compute, selling all btc the whole way and simultaneously drive price lower over the same period, squeezing out 'honest' miners ... then in a final act take all their mining power off-line during a final dump of price then it would leave the network hanging at very low block solving rate (long confirms) waiting forever for the next retargetting and a low price and take a toll on confidence ... the fix was to allow for a 'special' retargetting on the downside if it hasn't happened after a time-out, not just the set 2016 blocks.
|
|
|
|
Before the agricultural revolution, it took humanity about one million years on average to develop enough infrastructure/capability to support an additional one million humans living at subsistence levels. After the agricultural revolution, that changed to talking only a few hundred years. Now, after the industrial revolution, that takes 90 minutes on average.
Think about that. Humanity and civilization are changing faster than they ever have before, by many orders of magnitude, and the digitization and electronic interconnectedness of the world is only accelerating that pace.
I think you mean ~90 hours per million? (75 million per year)... and this raises a further very important consideration. Actual population growth rates in the world are about to decline (~40 million per annum by 2050) due to increase in wealth of the developing world above subsistence level and widespread contraception etc as the West has already undergone. What does this mean? At the same time technology and productiveness is increasing exponentially, population will be lowering to stagnating ... i.e. massively deflationary forces. The globe needs a deflationary currency to prevent over-supply, gluts, malinvestments and huge wealth inequality, capital stagnating in pools. Human wealth valuation is non-linear, capital generally functions linearly in it's effectiveness. This is a major mathematical problem for money as a technology to solve. |
|
|
|
Yup. I'm not comfortable shorting gold because the cost of production is too close to the cost per oz. But I'm not comfortable going long because of the power of the paper market. The stock markets and real estate look scary and I can't shake the feeling that btc is being supressed. Maybe it's one of fiat cash is king moments ... is what you meant right? |
|
|
|
Slippery slope, could you please post two graphs for me keeping everything the same but the target bitcoin price at $250,000 and one at $500,000? I'm curious as to how the price would tie in with the trend lines.
I'd also like to see one using log "market cap" instead of log price ... i.e. a sigmoid curve targetting $17 T ~2018 |
|
|
|
People are fucking stupid. Be prepared for that.  gold |
|
|
|
I agree but bitcoin software is about to hit the hardware limit regarding mining devices. Best Chips are 28nm so far and there is room for 22nm but it wont be as profitable beyond those nodes (intel just released their 14nm chips). My guess is that quantity should take on from there, tappering the network's overall power (hashrate). What will be the effect on btc price is puzzeling.
Umm...KNC already has 20nm miners. good, we should hit that wall any day now then ... and materials, labour and energy costs kick in the hardest |
|
|
|
Bitcoin tx data is basically useless as a metric because it costs near 0 to send a tx. If there is no cost to something, then it can done with repetition, e.g. Coinbase has a feature to send BTC to friend in email and you can send any tiny amount you want.
The data you claim is useless is highly correlated with bitcoin market cap and seems to obey Metcalfe's Law: V ~ N2 .  Have you done an update on the last 6 months data Peter R? |
|
|
|
Looking at GMX's password recovery process, to recover an account it looks like they will either send an email to s***@v*****.com
or they will let you enter your birthdate. Perhaps somebody exploited one of these two options?
reddit formatting markdown fucked up the email address characters, but it looks like S followed by 6 stars @ V followed by 8 stars
entering birth date is rate limited to 3 attempts per 24 hrs. So probably wasn't accessed through this unless the attacker had narrowed down the range a bit
Would take 4 months max to crack the birth date.. So it's quite possible. If somebody knew the exact calendar year, that's true. But do we really really know exactly what year he was born? If Satoshi is only one person and not a group, just try the birth dates of Nick Szabo, Wei Dai, David Chaum, John Nash, Adam Back, Tatsuaki Okamoto, Hal Finney, Neal King, Vladimir Oksman, Charles Bry, Michael Weber, Shinichi Mochizuki, Robert A. Hettinga, Gavin Andresen, and Ray Dillinger and you have your Satoshi. ... it is common practice for pseudonyms to use cryptic yet significant dates, numerology or the like. 1/1/1971, 2/8/82, etc ... |
|
|
|
|
denninger is right about bitcoin going to zero ... sometime around the year 2386 ... he should liquidate his gold for cryopreservation so he can watch it
|
|
|
|
|
in russia, cryptocurrency ban you!
|
|
|
|
we'll see a rush if that 475 wall at Bitfinex comes down
don't think so ... those walls have been there for the last 2 months, they'll just retreat a bit ... maybe. |
|
|
|
The eventual success of bitcoin depends also a lot on psychology, sociology, businesses, and politics. This is where you are wrong and confused about what money is and how it functions. It falls wholly within the theories and quantifiable outcomes of game theoretic analysis. There is no voodoo science, humanities, politics, leaps of faith or religion involved. Bitcoin will succeed because it is advantageous and beneficial for every individual player of the money game AND the world/economy at large that would adopt it, versus centrally-managed depreciating fiat (see games with transferable utility). http://sites.stat.psu.edu/~babu/nash/money.pdfYou are the scammer for keeping the poor huddled, confused masses cowering in fear of the unknown and clinging to their corrupted, mismanaged savings and life earnings. |
|
|
|
where do you come up with this stuff?
why do you feel compelled to tell us we can't possibly make bitcoin work because not everyone agrees with it?
when will you realize we are here by choice and don't care what you say?
When will you realize that there are people who understand bitcoin but honestly do not believe in it? Why do some of you feel compelled to insult the non-believers, just because they don't believe?  What is there to believe or not believe in? You want to make it sound like a religion. Study it hard enough and you'll realise that it all boils down to cryptography, economics, applied game theory, information theory and lots of mathematics. Either you get it or you don't. Money is a value information technology, not voodoo. Abstracting the analysis away from your politics and emotions is the most difficult part. Begin at the beginning. |
|
|
|
S.N. again perhaps ... nice clean macro (geopolitical) level game theoretic argument basis too.  Use a comparatively small sovereign outlay to elevate BTC pricing, in a short time, to a level sufficient such that the bitcoin network can compete with the SWIFT network, and hence neutralise the threat posed to BRICS countries by the USA monopoly of international payments In a Mexican standoff, sometimes it is enough to merely point out the new, improved gun on the table to get the shooting started. |
|
|
|
.... tell them all to start looking for career changes, we come to eat their lunch. |
|
|
|
|
they are automated bots/algorithms ... with well-crafted strategies, constraints, heuristics modelling, etc in place to maximise sell pressure at a minimum "cost" (i.e. loss of coins).
... it doesn't appear the bid side has got the technical/coinage firepower in place as yet.
This is how all/most of the commodity/stock markets are managed these days ... until they fail catastrophically, all hell breaks loose and the tax payers get lined up to bail out the banks who operate the algos, or if it is not too big maybe some hapless "rogue trader" fall guy gets trooped out.
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
