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1  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Bitcoinica - Advanced Bitcoin Trading Platform on: December 11, 2011, 10:05:40 AM
My question pertained not to spreads but to the precise trigger of the stop-buy, be it the ask price, a buy-ask median, or something more fuzzy. My eyeballs tell me the stops are triggered when the Bitcoinica ask is above my stop-buy, but I do not know for certain whether the ask is the precise trigger.

I sacrificed a few dollars when the Mt. Gox ask prices rose from $2.92 to $2.95. Bitcoinica charts show a wee bit over $2.94 and the Bitcoinica ask is currently a bit over $2.97 and the spread is about $0.8 at this moment:

Code:
Stop 	1.0 	$2.9300 	2 hours ago 	Executed @ 2.9369
Stop 1.0 $2.9400 27 minutes ago Executed @ 2.9461
Stop 1.0 $2.9500 25 minutes ago Executed @ 2.9583
Stop 1.0 $2.9600 24 minutes ago Executed @ 2.965
Stop 1.0 $2.9700 24 minutes ago Executed @ 2.9769

Again, it's triggered by the Bitcoinica bid/ask price listed at that moment, based on whether you're buying or selling. In a perfect world, you place a limit buy order at @$4/BTC, and as soon as the Bitcoinica ask price reaches $4 or above, it will execute the quantity you requested at $4. Vice versa for a sell order.

Reality: spread changes over time. So even if Mt. Gox price/BTC doesn't move, you could see the Bitcoinica spread move around based on trading activity, other liquidity concerns, or factors that are inherent to Bitcoinica's (undisclosed) algorithm. The point is that order execute based on Bitcoinica's bid/ask prices, and nothing else.

If you're seeing execution of orders at prices other than the bid/ask spread, it's due to slippage (or the occasional bug).
2  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: OPERATION: What is Bitcoin? - A Massive Bitcoin Twitter Campaign on: December 09, 2011, 07:36:01 PM
But here he is not in control of the money. At most he is in control of an idea. If you don't like the idea, don't support it. Those who do will (for the record, I don't). It's as if your dislike for him is so extreme, you don't even think about it any more, and just reach the same exact conclusions every time on autopilot.

I have an idea! I'm going to make a portable card-reader for bitcoin. You should send this collection service bitcoins for this idea, and they'll forward it along to the idea-creator. Don't worry, it's all going to the idea.
3  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Bitcoinica - Advanced Bitcoin Trading Platform on: December 08, 2011, 05:12:54 PM
Thank you, Dad. I can see patterns in Mt. Gox charts but can not short nor set stops on Mt. Gox. I would like to understand Bitcoinica's behavior. Is it executing my BUY-STOP when the BID is greater than my BUY-STOP, or the BID/ASK mean, or what?

$3.05 STOP for a Mt. Gox $3 and $0.1 Bitcoinica spread were useful answers, but I'd prefer it confirmed by Zhou.

No need to be a jerk. The nature of your questions suggest you have a weak understanding of FOREX, and so I was giving you a response appropriate to your understanding. This is not an insult, it's a pretty complicated system.

I can't tell you exactly HOW the spread is calculated (and Z won't), and I can tell you that your stops and standing orders are executed based on Bitcoinica's Bid/Ask, which could be wildly different than anything you're seeing on Mt. Gox, in theory. The only relationships the sites share are 1) Bitcoinica trades on Mt. Gox, and 2) Bitcoinica's users trade at Mt. Gox. 

Because of those and arbitrage, you'll almost always see Bitcoinica's spread surround the current Mt. Gox price. But Mt. Gox's price is completely irrelevant to any of your profit and loss transactions on Bitcoinica, and the fact that you keep on it is, again, an indication that you're confused.

If your orders are not executing at exactly the Bid/Ask prices, it's due to something called "slippage": http://winninginvestor.quickanddirtytips.com/liquidity-slippage-selecting-stocks.aspx

I hope that helps, son.
4  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Coming Soon: The Casascius 1000 BTC FINE GOLD COIN on: December 08, 2011, 04:50:31 PM
If he provides the two-key option, then he is definitely trustable...

I'm probably saying something that everyone here already knows, but:
The two-key coin requires both the private key on the hologram and your secret key to redeem it.  This means that
1. Since the address of the coin is easily gotten from your two public keys, you can verify casascius sent coins there.
2. He has no incentive at all to put an incorrect private key onto the coin.
3. Thus, you and only you can redeem the coin.

The point is that he holds all the information to extract the underlying BTC at any point, not that it's an incorrect private key. I.e. there certainly are BTC on the coin. A week later, a month, etc, there aren't. Random sample, draw from an address that's on an old coin, easy peasy.

Again, I'm not saying he's doing this. Only that this particular business model is the perfect scam as soon as he gets greedy enough. Maybe he isn't this way, but given the general history of "bitcoin entrepreneurs", I don't know why you'd take the risk.

I got the sarcasm of the statement but I was wondering why not put a valid BTC address there just in case someone agreeded with the statement.

Because it gives me an opportunity every time to say this: you are a sad, sad group of people begging for change on the internet corner, and it sickens me to the point where I wouldn't put a public BTC address up if you paid me.
5  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Coming Soon: The Casascius 1000 BTC FINE GOLD COIN on: December 07, 2011, 07:05:34 AM
BitMagic, healthy skepticism is good, but I think you're going to a rather unwarranted extreme.

I'm not claiming he's a thief, I'm claiming that all else being equal, for a "currency" rife with successful theatre purchases, automatic card reading devices, very reliable forks, secure wallet services, perfectly competitive small cap exchanges, honest mortgage brokers...ah fuck it.

6  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Coming Soon: The Casascius 1000 BTC FINE GOLD COIN on: December 06, 2011, 11:34:34 PM
Only problem is his honesty has been verified by the random sampling of physical bitcoins that have been opened and redeemed by presumably independent persons.

1 BTC coins 46/3836 = 1%
10 BTC coins 0/11 = 0%
25 BTC coins 6/249 = 2%
100 BTC coins 12/34 35%

I think we can be fairly certain that all coins that have been sold have been loaded with the BTC. If he were to load all BTC as expected, but keep a copy of the private key *that* is where a problem might be.

We can be fairly certain of nothing, considering 1) you have no idea who opened those coins, and 2) no smart thief would load none. I'd be happy to skim 1 of every 100 1BTC coins sold, for an extra $383 dollars.

Of course, practically speaking, the store has an incentive not to sell you food that will kill you, it's bad for their business.  And they would also likely be liable for your injury or death.  Every city in the USA is plastered with billboards for lawyers who would love to get in on the action if it ever happened.  Those two reasons are good enough that you still patronize the grocery store.

I'm not a whole lot different.

Yes, yes. There's all kinds of legal avenues we can take advantage of to get back our stolen BTCs from you.  Roll Eyes The fact is, anyone stupid enough to trust you like they trust their grocery store probably deserves to lose everything.
7  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Coming Soon: The Casascius 1000 BTC FINE GOLD COIN on: December 06, 2011, 09:31:12 PM
Huh?

In a hundred years, will this coin be just a plain 1oz gold coin with a pretty hologram and a cryptic string in it? Or would this be a highly sought after collectible worth a lot of money due to the embedded bitcoins?

You both perfectly proved my point by missing the entire object of my post: What value do embedded bitcoins hold if you can't be sure they are even there without destroying the pretty hologram that gives it it's novelty value?

Why would anyone ever accept a 1btc coin in payment for anything, if they couldn't verify that there are even btc in it without destroying the coin?

Do you see what I'm getting at? The entire value of these things (minus the raw brass, silver, or gold) is dependent on 1) Mike being honest, and 2) you never being able to verify if mike was honest with the coin you're holding. He sells an object that requires you to risk throwing away everything you paid for it just to be certain you can trust him.

Again, this is why bitcoins will never go anywhere other than these forums. Most people can think through these problems and then just never bother.
8  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Bitcoinica - Advanced Bitcoin Trading Platform on: December 06, 2011, 08:59:03 PM
Suppose I am short and would like to set a stop to be triggered iff the Mt. Gox price rises above $3. If I expect a $0.1 spread on Bitcoinica, where should I set my stop? $2.95, $3.00, $3.05, or.... ?

It's a mistake to think in terms of Mt. Gox price, because the spread is not static, it changes with trade volume and other factors. You should think only in terms of the bid/ask prices you are comfortable with, because those are at least real values that can affect your trades.
9  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Coming Soon: The Casascius 1000 BTC FINE GOLD COIN on: December 06, 2011, 08:55:16 PM
The cool thing is though, that I don't have a monopoly on this.  Decentralization doesn't necessarily mean "never trust anybody".  You trust your grocery store not to sell you expired/spoiled/poisonous food; if they did, you would have somewhere else to shop.  Surely, you wouldn't say your local grocery store has cornered the market on food, otherwise I would expect that you only eat things you grow yourself.

I wasn't saying any of that. I was saying you've managed to find a perfect way to swap the backing of bitcoin value from a much more trustworthy source (general demand and scarcity) to probably the most untrustworthy source generally (one random internet person). The only reasonable value I can place on your physical product and the underlying bitcoins (the same for anyone who uses similar methods) is based on this statement:

You have to trust the right key is in the coin. I have good control over this with multiple checks and balances.

Let me put this another way for all of your customers: The value of your physical coins is the sum of the following: 1) underlying value of the bitcoin code, 2) the novelty/look/use of your product, and 3) the raw materials value.

1): Dependent on you being honest.
2): Dependent on nobody redeeming the code, lest they destroy it's novelty, look, or physical trade use.
3): The only lasting value of your product.

So you've invented a wonderful product that incentivizes not verifying if you're being honest while depending on your honesty, all the while padding your bank account.

This, right here, folks, is why bitcoins will fail. Because everyone with a small stack throws their money at some of the worst ideas on the planet, and most people with an ounce of sense wouldn't even bother.
10  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Coming Soon: The Casascius 1000 BTC FINE GOLD COIN on: December 02, 2011, 08:41:58 PM
You can have a 3rd party verify all the key math, other than the concealed key in the coin. You have to trust the right key is in the coin. I have good control over this with multiple checks and balances.

This is what I love about your product, Casascius. Basically, we trust the "inherent" value of a dollar bill because it's backed by the US government, and we even somewhat trust the "inherent" value of bitcoins based on their usefulness and speculative demand, but you've managed to redirect the only support of value in your physical bitcoins to...you.

I am sure you're ok with your product just being a novelty, though.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning: How many of you Bears have ever been a victim of a Short Squeeze? on: December 01, 2011, 04:00:39 AM

lol graffiti.
12  Other / Off-topic / Re: Punishment for Matthew N.Wright on: November 29, 2011, 07:09:05 PM
Tell me again what is keeping him from reading this post?

Who tells me I cant throw a snowball at him while he is eating...or just walking or even sleeping.  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Riiiiiiight. "Hey man." "Hey...what are you doing with that 2x4 in your pants?"

"Hey Matthew, wanna go get some ice cream?" "No."

You guys are so stupid. Just empty the addresses already. No one will be watching your shitty TV.
13  Other / Off-topic / Re: My Attempt at The Uberman Sleep Schedule on: November 29, 2011, 07:06:00 PM
I spent several months in a monastery.

What's the deal with this? And then you somehow ended up in Greenland of all places? That shit sounds way more interesting than Atlas' daily failure (but in a good way).

No kidding.

Atlas, you totally bailed again. Why do we even bother giving you credit when you keep letting us down? You said you were going to try a new schedule, but you haven't updated anything. Such a quitter.
14  Other / Off-topic / Re: Punishment for Matthew N.Wright on: November 29, 2011, 03:08:33 AM
Tell me again what is keeping him from reading this post?
15  Other / Off-topic / Re: My Attempt at The Uberman Sleep Schedule on: November 28, 2011, 12:56:16 AM
A few years back, I had a vegetarian roommate who was a boxing coach and ultimate fighter. He killed any misconceptions I had about the diet. My capoeira had never been better than during the few years I was on a high nutrition vegetarian diet (before moving to the Arctic); I was lighter, faster, slept less, fucked longer, more energy and mental focus than a teen.

You got any more information on this diet, by the way?
16  Other / Off-topic / Re: The Uberman Sleep Schedule and Me on: November 27, 2011, 11:01:34 AM
Even more interesting is that studies were done where they woke people up during different stages of sleep to record their dreams, and REM sleep was significantly correlated with more nightmares than earlier stages.

Less interesting, considering REM is significantly correlated with more dreams in general .
17  Other / Off-topic / Re: My Attempt at The Uberman Sleep Schedule on: November 27, 2011, 02:15:15 AM

And....?
18  Other / Off-topic / Re: My Attempt at The Uberman Sleep Schedule on: November 24, 2011, 05:34:23 PM

Missed the update on nap 5-6. Bet he fell asleep again.
19  Other / Off-topic / Re: My Attempt at The Uberman Sleep Schedule on: November 24, 2011, 01:36:23 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbG2oeydUG0

Third attempt, day 1, nap 2....

Surprising, you actually look pretty sharp in this one, even thought you say you're tired.

Just out of curiosity, what are you trying to get out of this? Is it just an experiment to see how it works?
20  Other / Off-topic / Re: My Attempt at The Uberman Sleep Schedule on: November 23, 2011, 11:15:48 PM
Can you tell me more about it? I'm curious about this stuff.

I don't know much more than wikipedia could tell you, medically, but I can tell you some people think it's total bunk, others say it works great.

I found it to be a nice "motivator," i.e. it's worthless if you want to stay up anyway, because you don't feel "drowsy" the way doxylamine and diphenhydramine make you feel when you first take them, so you can push right through it. It just makes it easier to get started sleeping when I'm ready, for me. It also reminds me that I want to be sleeping, and not up doing something else, because I took it. But a sugar pill would probably serve the same purpose in that case.

Take less of it. I sometimes take as little as 0.75 mg.

I might try this, but I need something to really push me in the right direction, and even 3mg tabs of melatonin doesn't quite get me where I need to be to get started into sleep mode, and still leaves me groggy.


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