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1  Economy / Trading Discussion / Model State Commodity Code on: December 08, 2010, 07:12:23 PM
http://dfi.wa.gov/sd/commodity.htm
Model State Commodity Code to regulate certain off-exchange transactions in commodities

I was wondering if anyone has tried to register with their state as a commodity broker for bitcoin.  I'm about to attempt the process, with the understanding that no one has registered in this state for years.  I'll keep you updated on how it goes and would appreciate any tips you all may have.

Also, if anyone is a CPA, it appears that this state requires annual reports/audits so someone willing to work for bitcoin wuuld be a great bonus.  Wink

Thanks. Grin
2  Economy / Economics / Re: Doomsday Economics FAQ on: September 28, 2010, 08:18:52 PM
I still trust that having come this far, the Fed will persevere and maintain order.

Mmmmm, are you a CNBC comentator?  Grin  Wink

Can you be a bit more specific on the exact options and actions that the Fed could take to remove the money that sits as excess reserves in the banks? Also, do you believe that the treasury will be able to finance itself without the support from the Fed?

Btw, let me remind you again that Bernanke when starting QE1 said that it would remove the liquidity. Less than a month ago announced that it would use the money its getting from the maturing MBS into buying more treasuries, and has been doing so. So basically he is not removing the money.

Also, in the Jackson Hole meeting, Bernanke basically assured that QE2 will be a reality, or at least that is what everybody understood.

I think there is still a chance, albeit getting smaller as time goes on, that the Fed will be able to sell treasuries to mop up the excess reserves.  It does appear that the banks still have quite a way to go with the new worries about credit unions.  Until confidence returns, the liquidity is necessary to keep the economy moving.  As certainty in the US's economic future returns, US investment should increase, and allow the Fed to act in kind to remove the excess reserves.
3  Economy / Economics / Re: Doomsday Economics FAQ on: September 26, 2010, 02:31:59 PM
I have checked the statistics in page 10 of that report, and yes its a big decline, but it seems to include all goods and only small business. Its interesting data, but it does not represent the whole thing.

And I am not denying there are deflationary presures. I believe the deflationary correction is going to start showing again (its already showing) until the Fed starts printing again on what its being called Quantitive Easing 2. Then prices will start rising again and heavily. Note that I am saying that prices will rise, not that the economy will recover, therefore stagflation.

People always complain about CPI's measures.  I think its important to understand what it does and does not include, but not very helpful to worry about if its value is a full picture.  Certainly the price of oil is having a dramatic effect on consumer goods and its hard to know if this will become a permanent increase in cost.

I've not heard that the Fed plans to induce the Treasury to print any more money for QE2.  There is certainly worry that the government's debt load is coming unbalanced and that may provoke some politicians to take drastic action and demand printing.  I still trust that having come this far, the Fed will persevere and maintain order.
4  Economy / Economics / Re: Doomsday Economics FAQ on: September 24, 2010, 07:44:55 PM

Not necessarely hyper-inflation, but stagflation is granted. I have been betting in stagflation since the beginning of the crisis.

Which leads to another question. Redengin what will the kyenesian academia do when stagflation happens again and its too obvious to blame it on the oil producers again?

Lets make this a separate topic thread:

     What can be done about stagflation?

But for now, I'm more interested in why you believe increased inflation (as a component of stagflation) is inevitable.
5  Economy / Economics / Re: Doomsday Economics FAQ on: September 24, 2010, 06:41:30 PM
I don't believe I have the understanding necessary to communicate others concerns.  I think one common theme that is discussion worthy:

  The current economic bailout will require hyper-inflation in the future.
6  Economy / Economics / Doomsday Economics FAQ on: September 23, 2010, 04:21:17 PM
Its very troubling to me to read many of the posts and irc discussions calling for doomsday economic collapse, often based on confused understandings of terms and economic frameworks.  I'd like to open up this thread as an opportunity to increase economic knowledge and hopefully identify ways to use that knowledge to better each person's economic position.

Please post your questions (or perhaps a doomsday scenario).  Then we can all work together to better understand the issues and concerns.

As a business major, I'm very interested in understanding the opinions of those outside academia.  I don't believe that academics has all the answers, but it does have sound models which identify how to use one's predictions to better one's financial position.

Since economics has quite a few differing opinions, each school of thought should present a viewpoint.  Then the reader can make their own decision avoiding arguments over the merits of each school of economics.
7  Economy / Economics / Re: US Federal Reserve mulls printing more money on: September 23, 2010, 03:57:47 PM
... just credit backed by credit backed by credit that imploded... but don't worry, you'll lose but we'll bail out our Wall St. friends with your children's future. What a system!

This type of stuff is only going to help drive Bitcoin adoption IMO.

Just so we're clear.  The Fed "bailed out" wall street by loaning them funds or buying up equity.  It didn't just give free money to the troubled companies.  We're all still in the same boat floating on the confidence in the US dollar.  Wall street still has to make good on their bail out debt to work our way out of this- and at the rate that its happening it very well could turn a profit for the Fed.  The Fed recently decided to reinvest that profit in the economy, but when the economy gets on its own legs, those profits will go to the treasury and pay off the government debt.  Certainly this will be a painful slow process, but we're no where near a doomsday scenario of internal default.  The only real risk I see is the one hugolp brings up- that other nations may default (PIIGS), which would strain the markets and increase the credit crunch here in the US. 
8  Economy / Economics / Re: US Federal Reserve mulls printing more money on: September 23, 2010, 02:16:22 AM
Quote
The Federal Reserve bank holds large quantities of currency.  The Fed also owns securities and makes loans from which it profits.  There is an awful lot of money available to fulfill demand without having to print more currency.
The Fed uses open market operations to do this.  If the demand for currency increases (bank run) then the Fed offers currency to banks in exchange for securities (treasury notes, bonds, etc.)

The assumption that the Federal Reserve is also the Treasury is the common error.  They are two distinct entities which have different ways to correct the money supply.

That's assuming institutions will buy treasury notes and bonds or will even have the time to do so.  I imagine a modern day bank run (at a national level) could happen in a matter of hours, possibly in a matter of minutes.  If people can't withdraw their funds on the spot, their confidence in the USD will go from 100% to 0% before the teller is able to finish her apology.

What do you believe the motive for a bank run is then?  Aren't people demanding US dollars?  If it gets harder to acquire something in high demand, wouldn't the value go up?  I think you are confusing confidence in the government with confidence in the currency.  Certainly there is a dependency under fiat currency for a strong trusted government, but people should have already priced that into their trust of currency and banking.  Otherwise they would only work for commodities they could take immediate possession of.
9  Economy / Economics / Re: US Federal Reserve mulls printing more money on: September 22, 2010, 09:10:40 PM
Wouldn't a nationwide bank run result in hyperinflation?

  A bank run is an increase in demand for currency.  Which would create hyperdeflation, as the value of currency rose to meet the clearing price at the current supply.

I don't follow you.  If you will, please break it down.

All of those accounts are "insured" for up to $250,000.  Where will this money come from?  They will have to issue more money or default on their promises.

The Federal Reserve bank holds large quantities of currency.  The Fed also owns securities and makes loans from which it profits.  There is an awful lot of money available to fulfill demand without having to print more currency.
The Fed uses open market operations to do this.  If the demand for currency increases (bank run) then the Fed offers currency to banks in exchange for securities (treasury notes, bonds, etc.)

The assumption that the Federal Reserve is also the Treasury is the common error.  They are two distinct entities which have different ways to correct the money supply.
10  Economy / Economics / Re: US Federal Reserve mulls printing more money on: September 22, 2010, 07:50:51 PM
Wouldn't a nationwide bank run result in hyperinflation?

  A bank run is an increase in demand for currency.  Which would create hyperdeflation, as the value of currency rose to meet the clearing price at the current supply.
11  Economy / Economics / Re: US Federal Reserve mulls printing more money on: September 22, 2010, 05:23:01 PM
"And indeed the Wikipedia article to which you link makes it clear (in the second paragraph) that the central bank funds its open market operations by printing more money."

The wiki states: "To pay for this, bank reserves in the form of new base money (for example newly printed cash) is transferred to the sellers bank"

Granted that is one example, but the US fed is already flush with currency and doesn't require printing any more to meet demand, they simply transfer 'elastic currency' in and out of the money supply.  The treasury has the sole authority and responsibility of printing currency.  In the US, the Federal Reserve can not print currency to increase base money.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/treasury-fed-reserve.asp
12  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Bitconent -The exponential Bitcoin Investment on: September 22, 2010, 03:49:32 PM
kosovito, did that payment include the 10% compounded value for the delay?
13  Economy / Economics / Re: US Federal Reserve mulls printing more money on: September 22, 2010, 03:45:40 PM
Please don't confuse "pumping more money into the financial system" with "printing more money" these are two entirely different things.  If you really want to know more I suggest you read about open market operations.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_market_operations
14  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Freenode / #Bitcoin-Dev Chat Logs on: September 22, 2010, 03:39:02 PM
Its irc!!!  -- loggers and idlers have set up camp here for over 20 years.  no one should have any expectation of privacy on irc.  Its disconcerting that people are now beginning to believe the internet is somehow safe now.  While I'm certainly all for the loggers removing personally identifiable information (phone numbers, email addresses, etc.) from the logs, no one should assume they are protected.
15  Economy / Economics / Re: Form 1099-K for 2011 on: September 20, 2010, 08:38:55 PM
From now on we will refer to it as "the unit formerly known as bitcoin" and use a non-reproducible symbol, that ought to keep those governments in check!
16  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Bitconent -The exponential Bitcoin Investment on: September 09, 2010, 03:10:10 PM
If the "exponential 10% a week" doesn't pan out, you can always seek 10x in punitive damages.   Cool

Wonder what the liquidation value of spndr7's assets are.....
17  Economy / Marketplace / Re: demand for programming service for bitcoins? on: August 30, 2010, 01:32:42 AM
I'd be interested.  In order to protect your anonymity I'd ask you to bid based on a website look'n'feel of my choice.  Do you have an hourly maintenance rate for longterm?
18  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Lightweight Java API? on: August 30, 2010, 01:17:10 AM
Would anybody be interested in a lightweight, dependency-free Java library to talk to bitcoind?

I'm starting a project requiring a stable API.  If you've got an aelrchitecture I'd like to coordinate and will even offer to help write a java client.
19  Economy / Economics / Re: Inflation, Fractional Reserve, and Bitcoins on: August 19, 2010, 01:34:44 AM
As for a call on over 10% of deposits, the bank can always purchase BTC on the market.  Your assumption is that the bank is limited to a single commodity in its holdings.  I can also foresee purchasing call options to hedge the impact of expected demand.  In any event, there are many ways a market can operate to service exaggerated demand.
20  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Network protocol overview doc on: August 16, 2010, 06:12:29 PM
Anyone claiming copyright of community projects, publishing on this community's board should be hooted outta town.

seconded.  copyright is a right, not a liability.  By not specifying terms in a license jgarzic is just trolling for a reaction.  I vote his non-cooperative self-grandizing be rewarded by banning his contributions to svn and the forums.  This way he can start his own fork with a license requiring each user to pray to him before launching the client.
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