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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: 94% correction? [42% so far] on: February 15, 2012, 10:08:14 PM
I'm starting to think what will ultimately destroy bitcoin is the concentration of coins from the early days.

Or... alternatively, there will be an uber crash which eventually will lead to stablization.

IF that is the case, there should be diminishing volatility as coin distribution involves market movements instead of hoarding...

Maybe.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Goomboo's Journal on: January 30, 2012, 05:29:40 PM
Ok, so Goomboo... how are you interpreting these charts... do you think the fuzziness of the EMA 10/21 has to do with the large number of people that might be trading on them now?

The last trade I lost a bit just because buy and sell were within the MT. Gox commission spread.

When the indicators are this weak, do you still follow them?  Seems that the indicators are kind of bouncing around a flat trend for the time being.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitscalper anyone use this ? on: January 30, 2012, 05:24:10 PM
  ... This is not a Ponzi scheme and time will prove it.

How can time do that?
To prove something usually is an operative process.
The concepts of time I know are just passing passiv.

In case I missed a point, when will time have this task accomplished?
How about reopening your business then?
You could save a lot of time avoid thess arguings.

I think that a run of years and some documentation of the transactions that are giving rise to profits might actually to some degree prove it is not a ponzi scheme...
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Goomboo's Journal on: January 30, 2012, 05:12:18 AM
That's what I was looking at...

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10zigHourlyztgSza1gEMAzm1g21za2gEMAzm2g10zxzv
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you think the BTC/USD price will be after someone buys up all the aks?! on: January 29, 2012, 07:03:22 PM
I think it would depend heavily on whether the elves and unicorns saw fit pull their BTC out of the market for long term speculation.

Certainly the market cap could support such a sale, perhaps it would bring a lot of the hobbits out hiding to attempt to sell their BTC hoping to make 10's of thousands per coin.

Snuffleupagus could have unforeseen influences, he might be in cohorts with el chupacabra, I think they may be holding a lot of BTC and want to depress pricing to buy more.

Not serious comment about influence of imaginary market forces.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: RALLY! on: January 29, 2012, 06:55:36 AM
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: RALLY! on: January 29, 2012, 06:50:41 AM
It feels a bit impending-smack-down-in-the-middle-of-the-night-ish to me.

+1

Last night it was a smack up but the volume I think is still too high for a middle of the night smackdown. It is low but usually before the big drops it is a lot lower. One thing is for sure that I have noticed though, most of the larger movements happen during nighttime hours in the western hemisphere.

Depends on how many people are not watching hourly indicators.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: RALLY! on: January 29, 2012, 06:43:44 AM
It feels a bit impending-smack-down-in-the-middle-of-the-night-ish to me.

+1
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitscalper.com Threat Level on: January 29, 2012, 06:37:29 AM
Ooooohhhh.

Yes. You're probably right.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitscalper.com Threat Level on: January 29, 2012, 06:36:46 AM
6
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitscalper.com Threat Level on: January 29, 2012, 06:31:59 AM
<shrug> I made a few coins, withdrew my balance.  The withdrawl took... uhm about 10 hours.  58btc.  Letting my little nest of coins grow to see what comes of it.  No biggie either way.
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Block Reward changing to 25 BTC in November-December 2012 on: January 27, 2012, 04:15:27 PM
The 7200 BTC minted daily (compared to the 3600 after the block reward halves) should also be seen in light of the current trading volume of the bitcoin economy. If half of the miners currently sell the BTC they earn from mining, it's 3600 BTC per day. Even if all miners sell their mined coins, it's still only 7200 BTC sold per day. Selling 7200 BTC currently, the price would drop from 5.25 to 5.04. That's a 4% decrease in price. But that's a daily 4% decrease. If only 3600 BTC were to be sold each day (after the reward halves) the downward price pressure resulting from miners exchanging their newly minted coins for dollars would only - at the current market situation - cause the exchange rate to drop to 5.08 BTC. A 3% decrease in price, per day.

So the result of a halving of the block reward will be a smaller downward pressure on the price from miners only selling half the amount of BTC that they were selling before. But the effects of this are impossible to determine without knowing how many BTC are bought per day (and kept), as this would have the opposite effect on the price. The magnitude of these two opposing forces seems to determine the effect a 25 BTC block reward will have on BTC prices.

You're not accounting for the additional trades that take place with the extra coins.

If those freshly sold coins account for a greater amount of coins traded daily, the affect they have may be disproportionate.

Being that there may be millions of untraded, unused coins sitting out there...
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: The price has bounced right back on: January 27, 2012, 05:21:24 AM
I don't think it's realistic in any sensible time frame.  On a long enough time horizon... I think it could happen.

Basically like you said, has to do with the value of the commodity... eventually BTC may outpace most/all fiat currencies simply by way of a limit on production.

Who knows really.  It's all conjecture until the future comes.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: shit, shit, shit on: January 27, 2012, 05:06:45 AM
Sometimes lesser profits are nice because they are still profits.
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Block Reward changing to 25 BTC in November-December 2012 on: January 27, 2012, 05:05:04 AM
The block reward was 50 btc when we hit $32 in June, and it was 50 when we touched $2 in December.  The block reward has no impact on the price.  It may however have an impact on miner profitability.

You cannot say for certain because the block reward was never 25.   Certainly it is hard to surmise how it could affect price, but that will remain to be seen.  If the market for btc slows down because miners are providing a constant stream of new coins, it almost certainly would affect price.  It's basic economics.

To what degree, that remains to be seen.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: The price has bounced right back on: January 27, 2012, 05:01:23 AM
You could buy a house with gold... who's value is many many times its intrinsic value as a manufacturing material or even a commodity.  Speculation and a large, fairly liquid market has made it what it is.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Goomboo's Journal on: January 27, 2012, 04:34:21 AM
How do you import the data into ninjatrader?  I might be retarded, but I cannot figure it out.  

I know the free version is a little neutered...

No, the free version is the same as the full version.  They are identical except you can't place live trades with the free version.

I'll just go ahead and post this.  Here's the data to import.

http://tinyurl.com/7nhd9ql

-Create an instrument in the instrument manager called BTC
--Make it a stock, set the exchange to NASDAQ
--Add it to the default list by clicking the arrow key to push it over there

-Add historical data through the historical data manager
--Import the file from the zip

-Backtest is under strategy analyzer
-When charting, be sure to chart daily data

The dates are meaningless, I just copied some from another currency just to get a "quick fix".

Awesome.  PM sent.

How do you typically gather new data?
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many of you have been Zhoutonged? on: January 27, 2012, 04:29:00 AM
Most early adopters are geeks though. They won't have the know-how nor the guts to play the market with these huge sums of money and BTC to manipulate the market in a way which earns them money. I just can't see that happening to be honest.

You do know what all the MIT math Phd's are going right? 

It ain't fixing computers. 

HFT.

The geeks.  They take your money.  They are good at it.  If it's math, they're winning.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: shit, shit, shit on: January 27, 2012, 04:23:43 AM
Sold a little late.  5.94 I believe... took about a $150 haircut... then did some trading, up down sideways... ended behind about $20 (down about 3% total I think...)

Not the worst thing in the world when the coins lost ~18% of their value in the last few days.

Hoping to end up with ~10-12% more btc than when this started.  
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Goomboo's Journal on: January 27, 2012, 04:20:19 AM
How do you import the data into ninjatrader?  I might be retarded, but I cannot figure it out. 

I know the free version is a little neutered...
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