You short in bear markets, and buy in bull markets!
Close first!
Yes... quite. |
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Yesterday's price movements opened some good profit opportunities after all.
Really? My profits Tuesday were below average. And they look to be declining. Are the profits being spread out over more and more investors? Thursday, January 12, 2012 0.2271
Friday, January 13, 2012 0.283
Saturday, January 14, 2012 0.1
Sunday, January 15, 2012 0.227
Monday, January 16, 2012 0.122
Tuesday, January 17, 2012 0.109
Wednesday, January 18, 2012 0.083
Thursday, January 19, 2012 0.005
Total 1.1561
Daily Averages 0.1445125
It would stand to reason that the more liquidity you offer the market relative to market size, the lower your return would be. If such a relationship holds up then as dollars go into the market, fluctuations will increase, net liquidity will decrease and profitability of microtrading will go up. However... it also stands to reason that someone smart enough to create software smart enough to capitalize on such trades is smart enough to understand that his percentage of a few thousand btc can be funneled out into another iteration which will generate 100% his money. Why use ours when he's figured out the game if the market is saturated on a liquidity basis? Because he can make more on bigger movements with... My guess? Expect profitability to decrease at a rate greater than liquidity increases and respond to growth in slight excess of declining liquidity. |
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The only  would be total new dollars to the market. Which... is a moderately large ??. Since it's all pretty much speculation at this point... I say we buy a billboard in NYC touting the awesomeness of BTC. |
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Alright then.
I've noticed it isn't hard to figure out either. Although I'd guess it's a lot more nerve wracking to go long on bear markets.
So then...
Xanax or Valium?
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So... I've been looking a bit at bitcoinica. I'm really interested in it because it will train me in some advanced trading techniques... but... is the big money in shorting bull markets at their peak or going long when bullishness is around the corner?
Inquiring minds want to know.
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I'd be willing to lower my pricing a touch to do some comprehensive SEO or copy writing for BTC.
I am very good at what I do.
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Fundamentals bear here. It's still overvalued based on current need and IMO the current rally is based on pure speculation... IE, it's a speculative bubble.
I speculate that Bubble2 won't be as extreme or last as long as Bubble1. I give it a few months before we hit $2.00 again.
I sincerely doubt it. 2.00 IMO was a residual effect of the pain and anguish from previous months. The market wouldn't offer coins for lower prices despite some really stagnant trading days. I'd be really surprised to see 2.00 hit again ever. Plus... the press is out there. Once the market cap flys high and people drop a couple hundred million into mining equipment, expect to see fewer fluxuations and thus viability brought to it as a transactional medium (which ought to further stabilize price). For the record, however, I will be selling probably 25ish percent of my holdings at $30. Worst case, I'll be up 100% on my investment  |
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For my pricing model, I relied on crudely depreciated estimated aggregate costs and a desire not to lose money to prop up prices. I figured people just simply wouldn't sell below a certain price because why not lose a dollar if you've already lost .80 and could make 100.
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<shrug>
The data bared out my predicts pretty well. I did it roughly, but I expected things to happen pretty much as they did.
If you'd like to lay it out and see who's is longer, I'd love to see your predictions and analysis from october.
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I'm working on an infographic and thought people here might be able to help me speculate about the current actual value of bitcoin and not just the future market price of bitcoin.
Currently, bitcoin stores some sort of value.
The most obvious store is the electricity from the miners, which is roughly a function of bitcoin difficulty, and of course the price of electricity where you live (and the efficiency of your hardware etc).
This aspect of the value of bitcoin reflects the bare minimum value. Bitcoins should be worth at least the cost of electricity miners put into their creation.
I'm also trying to work out the social and commercial value which is roughly a function of:
how many services are being offered
how valuable those services are to the people who use them
how many people use those services (with bitcoin)
So for example, selling pizza - the market is large, but the number of people offering and using that service (with bitcoin) is small, so it doesn't really add much value to bitcoin. If the number of people offering this service increased and the number of people using it also increased, bitcoin would gain additional value.
I'm thinking as there's increases in point-of-sale infrastructure, international money transfer options, stores of wealth (ie replacement for gold) etc bitcoin value will also increase, and as such it's just as sensible to speculate about these things as it is to speculate about market trends.
Currently these non-mining factors all contribute a tiny amount to the value of bitcoin, I'd say less even than the electricity cost of mining. As these aspects grow, their value will far outweigh the energy cost of maintaining the network.
So, any ideas of what the current ACTUAL value of 1btc is? Or how to calculate it? Or what will be the big value-adders that are on the horizon?
Any ideas on how to approach creating this infographic are welcome. I have my own ideas of course but I would like it to be an actually useful piece of information rather than just some curiosity that means little.
My guess is currently around the 10 USD mark, but not really based on anything solid yet, I still have to do some data research.
This is what I came up with.... https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=48136.msg577080#msg577080How do you like my analysis? hehe... I was actually stopping by because I wanted to see what I'd said. |
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Currently, bitcoin stores some sort of value.
The most obvious store is the electricity from the miners, which is roughly a function of bitcoin difficulty, and of course the price of electricity where you live (and the efficiency of your hardware etc).
This aspect of the value of bitcoin reflects the bare minimum value. Bitcoins should be worth at least the cost of electricity miners put into their creation.
No, sorry. This is totally false. The only value a bitcoin "stores" is the purchasing power it retains, which purely a function of supply and demand. The cost of electricity has little to nothing to do with how much a Bitcoin should cost. To illustrate, imagine if suddenly tomorrow everyone's electricity costs 100x more. Does that mean a Bitcoin must sell for $500 (given current price of $5)? No. Supply and demand is all that matters. You completely ignore that the supply will go away if the value is less than the cost of production... so in otherwards... a force pushing towards equilibrium actually will be the cost of production. [edit] rather... low prices push people out until prices equalize. No one can produce at a loss forever. Unless they're smarter than the average bear. |
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So, all in all, bitcoin is a pretty interesting online game/simulation. Isn't that good enough? As someone else said, this has a great deal to do with market cap. While gold certainly has SOME value in electronics manufacturing or for jewelry, the price of it has very little to do with these things. It has a great deal instead to do with speculation. The price of gold would likely be only a fraction of what it is without said speculation and as such, ultimately is subject to the same inflationary pressures as other commodities. In this way, the value of gold as an investment instrument has very much to do with speculation and not at all with consumption. Similarly, if BTC are seen to have value as a relatively liquid, semi-untraceable currency... it could achieve the same perception. Similarly, BTC as a transaction medium will become a sort of consumptive good as well. So to some degree consumption will drive price moderately (as with gold), but maintain its value primarily on speculation (as with gold). The reality is that BTC has a substantial value as a medium for transaction. It will grow as does the technology to utilize it easily. It will also grow with a greater market cap and relative stability. I think deriding its long term prospects because of volatility and such ignores that other commodities depend on like factors and mostly social psychology grants them their value. |
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I'm sure there is still some dickbag out there wanting to exit BTC that accumulated a lot early that has no clue about trading volumes and sustainable sales.
Although... if prices are rising, I think you'll see fewer people jumping ship in earnest and less downward pressure.
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Market prices do not so much have to do with probabilities as they do demand. Few need what BTC can currently provide. There are many on the sidelines waiting for signs that btc has become a legitimate medium to hold as a hedge against fiat inflation.
To me, with a currency crash on the horizon, this communities heyday lay in its strength when confidence in government and bank issuance (through fractional reserve banking) crashes down. The fully realized potential may come at a substantial cost, however, as any very widespread use of btc that may undermine fiat currencies may lead to its control as was gold following the great depression.
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Early adopter prices are around 0.06 USD dude.
In 10 years time people will say that early adopters got in at around $3 when the market first began to stabilise  The same as 5 & 14, people said exactly the same thing, search for it. I mean the price could be relatively stable for a while but fundamentals suck, this board sucks, everybody hates each other and so on. There is no reason for it to go up except pump & dump atm. I don't think bitcoin is in that bad shape, but certain people have to leave... It has become impossible in the last month do engage in any reasonable discussion, the emotional state of the crowd is the leading indicator for the price and this has to reflect itself. So yes I think the coming drop could be the last one since it almost couldn't get much worse here. (But we never know....  ) You may be part of the problem. I'm mostly constructive and got some rude flak from you out of left field. |
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Can anyone tell me what this means exactly?
"N9MJ9HJgpohZKW2E79Jr7zWZTnDMhA6rDn":{"balance":3978459462,"oldest":1320204828,"newest":1320527401.23},
I haven't received any payments.
[edit] Think I figured it out... 39.78 nmc balance. I am so smrt.
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I'm kind of feeling the same way. I feel like there should be an upward push on pricing from miners that want to turn a profit on their rigs.
Myself, for instance, I am not liquidating my BTC I mine. I feel that I can get more and intend only to transfer BTC out of the commodity when the price has reached equilibrium. I would imagine the basal equilibrium would be a combination of depreciated hardware values + ongoing electrical cost with a slight margin for profitability.
Of course if such an equilibrium exists, it'd be somewhere below the ideal point for those that paid full retail for their mining equipment and somewhere above ideal for those that paid the lowest dollar possible.
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Ah... yeah that's kind of what I was thinking. Thanks for the reply |
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You have been awarded as the future past president of the being rich club.
As I have said to someone of the other side of the coin: We don't need your kind here.
Oohhhhhkay. Care to explain? |
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