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Economy / Speculation / Re: I'm dumping my bitcoins so you should
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on: March 29, 2016, 03:38:59 AM
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Here I am, still waiting for double-digit bitcoin. The bears told me it would happen, all throughout 2015, two digit bitcoin price was just around the corner. The next dump was sure to get us there.
Oh, well... it's time to accept that's never going to happen again. I'ts almost as if bitcoin were a deflationary asset by its very nature!! I'm glad I bought at $280 the first time I did.
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42
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Economy / Speculation / Re: I'm All In - Sold My House!
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on: March 29, 2016, 03:10:34 AM
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So even if he didn't sell his coins, he is sitting on paper losses of 30+%.
Sad.
One can only hope the poor (wo)man played the swings in price, and ended up with profit... but I don't think he (or she) did. |
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44
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 22, 2016, 05:40:16 AM
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I'm as curious about theymos' response to those circumstances as I am about your response to this comment. Would you say I have an obsession with your opinion? You're just one person not representative of the bitcoin ecosystem, yet here I am. Talking to you through the internet.
The odd thing is you mentioned him when he wasn't in the conversation and wasn't related to the topic in any meaningful way. Why does his opinion matter so much to you that you would single him out in such an offtopic matter ? Hmm, well... funny thing about reddit, people share links there too. One comment led me directly into Theymos' response about the 95% BIP9 standard being possibly lowered. Made me wonder. "what standard is he using? Seems it's only because it comes from Bitcoin Core development team. I wonder what he'd say if it goes through with less than 75.001% hash power. How will the community respond? What would those who back that decision say then?". I abbreviated that whole thought into just mentioning the person that brought up that possibility. Sorry, I thought it was something I cleared up when I said "I observe how some proponents of it justify the change with a consensus below that benchmark (theymos being one of them [the most known one])". But seems like you needed me to give you the step-by-step playthrough. I do not see the activation threshold being lowered below the original 75activates/95enforced for a soft fork.... If anything Segwit activation threshold will likely be increased to 95% due to it being deployed with BIP 9 (Version Bits) . If it gets delayed due to Classic miners rejecting a capacity increase so be it.
Believe it or not, Many core developers do indeed believe they need a large consensus of 75/95 for softforks and 95-99% for HFs as they are in the service of the community and have an ethical responsibility to protect the ecosystem... This isn't a stalling tactic like some classic supporters seem to conspire about.
Really? I would love to see when and where those Core devs expressed the views you said they expressed in that bolded section there. I wonder why Segwit gets a consideration of lowering the threshold by 15%... Oh, well ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ it's a mystery for the ages. |
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45
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 22, 2016, 03:18:11 AM
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Who cares about theymos. He is just one person and doesn't represent the bitcoin ecosystem . It appears you have an unhealthy obsession with his opinion.
I'm as curious about theymos' response to those circumstances as I am about your response to this comment. Would you say I have an obsession with your opinion? You're just one person not representative of the bitcoin ecosystem, yet here I am. Talking to you through the internet. As of right now, any unilateral change to bitcoin on behalf of the Bitcoin Core development team has no consensus, according to the 95% guideline he provided. I'm telling you I'm curious about his response to a growing Classic blocks and nodes not being of the Core variety, specifically, when time comes for changes on behalf of the Bitcon Core dev team. I don't remember the source, but I remember reading from the dev team that there were bugs being removed from Segwit, recently. Must be part of the reason why its not out yet. I don't know who's been using it since when. It's not on the bitcoin network, it hasn't run the real world testing. My opinion is a bit of "Yeah, I'm gonna step away from this" until I see how well/poorly it performs. Here's how that sequence goes: Implementation without 95% consensus, I observe how some proponents of it justify the change with a consensus below that benchmark (theymos being one of them [the most known one]), I observe how it goes and form a revised opinion based on how it's doing. Seems like a reasonable course of action that you're making a big fuss about. Well, to me, anyways. |
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46
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 22, 2016, 01:56:12 AM
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I, for one, don't trust the more buggy and complicated solution.
Segwit is actually quite elegant solution that solves many problems and the reason why classic supporters like Gavin support it. It's already hard enough to explain to my friends what a blockchain is. Now I'm going to have to explain Segwit. Great.
Why would segwit even come up in conversation to non-technical friends? Technical people appreciate it for its ingenuity and elegance in solving many problems within bitcoin. Perhaps you dislike segwit because you don't quite understand it? If not can you name a very specific technical reason why you dislike it? Did I read wrongly that Segwit had bugs that needed work on from the dev team? Because that's one con on it's column, while a simple block size increase is a much more speedy (and currently, less buggy) way to provide room for growth in both transactions and volume. Sure, Segwit can be looked at as an elegant way of providing more room, but it looks like building several jetpacks in order to get around building a bridge. Sure, jetpacks are cool and all... but maybe we set a working bridge while the jetpacks are being developed and demonstrated to be safe? Right now, I oppose Segwit while it hasn't been implemented and shown to work properly. Hey, maybe the jetpack project gets done before the bridge. Cool. I, frankly, oppose it right now, mostly to see what Theymos will do with less than 95% consensus (hopefully, by the time it's rolled out, 75% consensus). Is he going to pull one of those [insert whatever we're calling 75% mining power backed change today]? I don't know. I'm interested to see how the dominant dev team act when they are not as dominant as they were 2 months ago, when bitcoin classic had cero nodes and 0% of hash power behind it. Enough to push back Segwit a bit. JayJuanGee says that it's (seemingly) the consensus that it's not an emergency. We can afford to do this little test, right? I show my opinion in the network by running a certain node. I think it'll be part of 51% of nodes and hash power (measured by the latest 1000 blocks) by... July? We'll see  |
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47
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 22, 2016, 01:15:04 AM
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Theymos once said "consensus" is 95%. Or so I hear. I think we're looking forward towards the day he says "well... given as how Classic is 25% of the mined blocks... 'consensus' is now 75%! Activate Segwit unilaterally on the behalf of Bitcoin Core development team!". That way he can't bitch when 75% of the hashing network decides to implement larger block limits despite the Bitcoin Core development team.
Some of us want a capacity upgrade in April and all the other benefits of segwit. Why are so many classic supporters trying to prevent this capacity upgrade? It certainly doesn't prevent any future maxBlockSize increase; why can't we have segwit to add an effective 1.8MB to 2MB and than later increase the the effective capacity to 3.6 to 4MB?
I, for one, don't trust the more buggy and complicated solution. The core dev team is free to release Segwit whenever they want. It's up to the community to adopt or not. I don't know what game they're playing... given how they've decided not to take the simple solution that I just showed. The solution that about a third of nodes would already recognize as valid? Yeah. I'm holding out for that one, and as the mined blocks increases to 75%, I will be behind it every step of the way. It's already hard enough to explain to my friends what a blockchain is. Now I'm going to have to explain Segwit. Great. |
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48
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 22, 2016, 12:56:38 AM
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Here's a pretty easy way to increase block size. Block_size_limit_variable = 2000 There's 5.5% of the nodes that already support that, with the Core dev team backing that change, I'm sure 95% (that being Theymo's threshold for "consensus") can get behind it pretty quickly. I'll let the miners decide... Edit: Woops, no. I checked. 5.5% of the latest 1000 blocks mined back up that solution. 31.39% of nodes already compatible with that simple and stylish solution. I don't know why the simpler, and less buggy solution isn't getting taken by the Core dev team. |
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49
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 21, 2016, 10:55:50 PM
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Bitcoin can handle a scale-up to 2Mb. It's obvious. The funny thing is that there is a hard drive that can store 9 year's worth of full 2Mb blocks for 9 years. For $85!The countries with lower average internet speeds than 2 Mb/s (according to the Akamai ratings of 2015) are the likes of Bolivia, Venezuela and Paraguay. We're talking ranks 119, 71 and 112 in the Human Development Index, respectively.I don't know about you, but I think that the third world is as ready for bitcoin as it was for the internet in the 1980s. Right now, we shouldn't hold bitcoin back in fear that some people won't have the storage or internet speed to run nodes/mine. But still, it's a phony excuse. |
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50
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 21, 2016, 06:28:23 PM
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< snip >
 Haha thx. I tried liking your post but I can't seem to find that button anymore. Don't worry, it's one of the many exciting new functions present in the million-dollar forum software that's been in development since January 2014. The one that's going to be out "when it's ready", according to the most recent staff declaration. You can check out the beta!... Which is behind a Bad Gateway error indefinitely. |
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51
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Other / New forum software / Re: New forum?
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on: March 20, 2016, 09:04:31 PM
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I guessed and I was wrong (as by ready, I mean a open beta). There's not much that I can do about it. Brooks' law is a claim about software project management according to which "adding manpower to a late software project makes it later"
You should have heard about this in a CS major (this is just a singular example). Actually you can see the beta already. However, it seems to be down at the moment due to a 502 error. I would have thought a forum software that had been in development from January 2014, with a budget of over one million dollars would have been done by now. Shows what I know, huh? So... how is the timeline of new people joining the project go? I'm very curious about that, because I thought the staff was on this since the beginning, therefore Brooks' law wouldnt be that applicable... |
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Other / New forum software / Re: New forum?
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on: March 20, 2016, 06:27:08 PM
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Yeah, just two more months 'til new forum releases, right?
There isn't a exact date. It could be tomorrow, or it could be in 10 months. You never know. It will be released when it is ready. Funny, you said in December that it would be ready by February, at latest. I don't know much, being a Computer Science student in Guatemala, but I would think over a million dollars and about (over?) a year's worth of software development would suffice for a forum. Call me ignorant, but looks like there's been little to no product produced by those million dollars. Just my two cents. Mixed feelings, won't lie. Would I stoop this low for $2.5 million US? Hope not, tho pretty hard to say. But I'm mainly driven by incredulity -- think people shouting "bravissimo!" at a woman getting raped in the isle of an opera house. But then again, 2.5 mil is a nice sum  Hey, having to deal with a handful of angry donors (30 is my best guess-timate by taking a quick look at the donate page that a 16-year-old could have coded), and a few people accusing you of being a scam artist... isn't that big a risk. The risk/reward assessment for simply running away with the money and assuring people that there's a new forum right around the corner... is pretty damn sweet, if you were to ask me to go along with it. For me, it would be more like scamming a sweet old lady out of all her money, you know, like televangelists. I would personally take $300,000 to do that. Well, help cover up for that. I would be rationalizing left and right that my partner in crime would have taken a moral action by using that money in any way (s)he pleased. |
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Other / New forum software / Re: New forum?
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on: March 20, 2016, 02:48:20 AM
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Theymos has set and blown multiple self-imposed deadlines, see end his [moved to /archived/, lol] reply.
Those were deadlines, those were estimates (IIRC). There's a clear difference between those two. -snip-
It might be best to just ignore the troll. You're feeding him and you should know how that usually goes. Yeah, just two more months 'til new forum releases, right? |
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54
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 20, 2016, 02:34:27 AM
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Isn't theymos in possession of 40,000 bitcoin for "forum maintenance and emergencies"? I highly doubt that the cost of running this forum will ever add up to (what at current price is) 16 million dollars...
Lol no; according to Thermos, the money's gone The forum money I held has largely been spent now, mostly in the forum software project. Slickage was paid $100,000 per month in all of 2014 and until May in 2015. Since June 2015, they've been paid $50,000 per month. The exchange rate varied substantially throughout this period, but the end result is that most of the BTC was spent. The rate ($85,417/month average as of the end of 2015) might seem high to people unfamiliar with professional software development, but it's normal. The project is quite a bit over-due and over-budget (the original estimate was 1 year and $1.2 million), but I've been constantly monitoring Slickage, and they've definitely been making solid, continual progress, so it seemed correct to continue to project. The vast majority of total forum revenue was from ads, not donations, but to the extent that donations were used: this software was in fact the main stated goal of donations. As I've said before: I have absolutely no personal relationship to Slickage, and I receive no "kickbacks" whatsoever. I've never even met them in person. I first learned of Slickage from Warren Togami, who had previously done a lot of work for the forum and was himself recommended by gmaxwell and others. (I've also never met Warren in person.) The current status of the software is that it's ~85% done. The core of it is entirely functional and often much better/faster than SMF, though there are still several missing features. There will be a public beta before the end of the month, I think, at which time I'll post more about what's left to be done. Also see http://epochtalk.org/ for more info. Holy shit, that whole thread reads like a public support section for a scam. "Yeah, we totally paid for [insert scam object here]. We didn't pocket the money, it's not our fault [insert unverifiable excuse here]. I have a [prototype/sample] right here with me. What's that? No, sorry. I can't share any proof of it! The sample you have is shit? Stop trolling!" Disgusting. Fuck, am I glad that nobody's trusting Theymos with anything more substantial than one or two bitcoin forums, eh? |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: sub 400 in 3.. 2.. 1...
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on: March 19, 2016, 06:16:22 AM
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Fun fact, this guy was predicting double digits In March 2015. Upcoming weeks target is around 170-180, stabilize there for a few days up to a week, then hard down to around 100 where we will face some serious resistance that may cause a small dead cat bounce. After that cat dies, bitcoin will likely sink into the forgotten depths to double And single digits to be laughed at in the future.
Here's an archived version. I wouldnt trust this guy's predictions. Whatever they are. I don't know, I stopped reading his bullshit a few months ago. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: sub 400 in 3.. 2.. 1...
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on: March 19, 2016, 05:02:33 AM
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Looks like a pretty solid bounce off of $403. I'm not quite sure it will go lower than that. But who knows, maybe we get another sale at $380! Or better yet, $370. Too bad I have no fiat to buy at those bargain prices. Oh, well. I had my shot, and I sort of took it. It's sort of turned out well.
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57
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 18, 2016, 11:02:29 PM
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I'm so close to having 0.9BTC, I can taste it! Tastes... mediocre.
Why ? Maybe it's because I've been gradually inching at it, but the fact is that I don't really feel satisfied with a fraction of a bitcoin. I know I'm close, but I'm holding off my partying enthusiasm until I have 1.0001 bitcoin. Sounds like you are playing with some real big numbers.
I'm actually playing with small numbers, no more than 0.1 at a time. I'm a bit reluctant to enter too large a position. I dont want interests cutting into my bitcoin stash. There's also the possibility I might get margin called, so I have most of my trading stash as collateral... so I get a very difficult-to-reach liquidation price. Currently, it's $168. I don't plan on selling or anything until the next bubble. That's the place between $500 and $760, possibly beyond. That's when I'm going to have some real fun. Meanwhile, I scrape small profits, I wait... I hold out hope for the pre-halving bubble. Be ready, everyone |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 18, 2016, 07:58:02 PM
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On the one hand, this could be a testing of the $404-$400 support, and we will ether bounce off or move sideways-up from here... or it could be part of a relentless campaign that will push us back to $390, $380 and the sort. I for one, moved my buy orders up a bit (filled now), and am hodling on for dear life, hoping my long(s)'s interests won't start consuming my bitcoin stash. I just need $415 before the 25th  . I'm so close to having 0.9 BTC, I can taste it! Tastes... mediocre. |
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60
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 18, 2016, 01:01:07 AM
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Good morning Bitcoinland.
Still going sideways. Isn't it about time to move on up?
We still got about a week left before we move up significantly. Hey BlackSpidy, I miss you a lot bro and your awesome bullishness, hope to see you around more frequently. I see you mentioned that we will go up within a week from now ? Why a week and what will happen to rise the price and not the other way around ? Thanks bro. Thanks!  . I really enjoy being around, and goofing online. It's my favorite passtime, after trading bitcoin. We've been bouncing aroun $380 and $460 since December last year. But we've been playing inside a triangle, I think it'll resolve up not far from now. Why one week? I got one week's worth of fiat to pay interest on my long  So ether something cools happens then, or I'll be forced to close it at a small profit. I find that it's really hard to lose money when investing bitcoin. All you gotta do is be a bit patient and not let yourself get lost to your emotions when trading. Even rough, quick and dirty noob TA does wonders in this market! That, paired with the market's history within context of its struggles and achievements really paint a positive picture. I'm working under the assumption that Bitcoin is digital gold. And looking at the last 100 years of gold... I'm ecstatic. That chart set to not adjusted for inflation looks a bit like bitcoin's price chart, right? |
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