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1081  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2014, 03:44:08 AM
I was beginning to think that the one thing that could kill bitcoin would be boredom.

Good to see the patient still has a pulse Smiley

+1.  Smiley
You people need to look at the past and realize that congestions are always followed by large moves once the scale is tipped.
1082  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2014, 03:12:36 AM
Breakout at last.
1083  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 16, 2014, 05:44:08 PM
Bitcoin has a small risk of going to zero, perhaps 3% annualized. That is about the same as fiat cash, or stocks, so we are talking about a net zero risk.
GENIUS Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
1084  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: May 16, 2014, 12:05:23 AM
Bearish divergence: Price does higher high, indicator does lower high
Hidden bearish divergence: Indicator does higher high, price does lower high

This isn't really a bearish divergence if the slope is just less negative. Plus, you drew it from different points in time for price vs. indicator.

Anyway, I checked it out on bitcoincharts, and there, the daily MACD actually does show a hidden bearish divergence, very strictly speaking (the slope is almost flat). Didn't catch that before, so thanks for that. Grin

Maybe it will help engrave it if I explain it my way too: During a trend, you want the indicator (an indicator is nothing but a filtered/"interpreted" way to look at price history) to align with the price action to signal that the way the price moves doesn't change. And if you are looking at a bullish trend, you want to look at the highs because that's where the momentum is. If there's a divergence in the highs during the bullish trend, then something has probably changed, two views no longer align with each other.

A regular bearish divergence happens for instance when the price makes new highs, but then reverses sharply and retraces untypically little of the drop before candle close, or when the price takes longer to make new highs than before. For the hidden bearish divergence, it could happen when the price simply stops making new highs without a drastic drop while the indicator (MACD is a good example) still goes higher just based on a past moving average. Both is a loss of momentum, it's just that one of the two views is more receptive to some signals while the other filters them out.

This will all depend in detail how the indicator works; there are many variations. I only use the MACD and the RSI myself.

I wouldn't attribute divergences much importance if they happen on a low volume or relatively sideways market because there is just no trend to look at.

tl;dr:

Price goes up, you look at highs. Divergence = bad
Price goes down, you look at lows. Divergence = good
1085  Economy / Speculation / Re: The bubble has finished popping on: May 15, 2014, 06:24:41 PM
But what we see happening, by definition, is not a bubble. Bubbles don't pop 4X or so. They pop and that is the end.

So there has only been one bubble in the stock market and since bubbles can only pop once there will never be a bubble in the future until the end of time?  Good to know. 

I'm trying to think of 1 stock that actually bubbled again and again.
I'm not talking about markets, I'm talking about individual stocks.

Can anyone think of a few? That would be good to know.

Some of the Dotcom bubble companies that survived.
1086  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 12, 2014, 08:48:31 PM
what about ripple ?

Look at this, this is BTC/XRP, so it's displaying the strength of Bitcoin vs. Ripple, and you can see that it's really been in a multi-year uptrend.

Cripple is COLLAPSING while Ripple Labs are disseminating their 100 billion XRP mah87, why on earth are you holding this shitty asset? I remember selling my cripples for values like 5k, 6k, 7k and now it's 80k per BTC. And still nowhere where I would consider buying it.



And just look at this shit, Ripple Labs have only even distributed 7 billion XRP yet (how many do they want to keep for themselves again, 30 billion?) and look what it's done to the price. How long are they going to be distributing, 20 years? It doesn't even seem that there is a road map, they're just doing it willy nilly. https://www.ripplelabs.com/xrp-distribution/
1087  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 12, 2014, 03:12:45 PM
Well, I can hardly refrain now, Can I? Cheesy

the bitcoins were later counted and I cannot say conclusively whether any were stolen.

1088  Economy / Speculation / Re: on the close-down of FxBTC before all users could withdraw on: May 12, 2014, 02:55:09 PM
That it's hypocritical to ignore bad news and say people shouldn't post them while doing the opposite with good news from the same source.

Also, this isn't war. When you speculate on Bitcoin, are you thinking of enemies and allies? Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
War is always about some form of resources. Money is how we trade resources in the modern world. Bitcoin could very easily become worth more than any one nations money supply, le states included. So yes, this is war.
So where's your army, cultist?

Me, I think I prefer looking at things as they are and not being the shill/propagandist for one side as the other in your "war". I much prefer doing well for myself rather than being a heroic soldier being sent off to death. Cheesy
1089  Economy / Speculation / Re: A Chinese look at the situation in China on: May 12, 2014, 02:38:22 PM
zhangweiwu,

Would you say that it is likely that the way this continues with the Chinese exchanges defying the PBOC is, there will be a first arrest/raid of an exchange?
1090  Economy / Speculation / Re: on the close-down of FxBTC before all users could withdraw on: May 12, 2014, 02:32:45 PM
That it's hypocritical to ignore bad news and say people shouldn't post them while doing the opposite with good news from the same source.

Also, this isn't war. When you speculate on Bitcoin, are you thinking of enemies and allies? Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
1091  Economy / Speculation / Re: on the close-down of FxBTC before all users could withdraw on: May 12, 2014, 02:00:20 PM
can't help pointing out that I predicted the event will happen, one month ago:
    
possibility of insolvency of Chinese exchange FxBTC examed (they are 4th biggest in China)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=557067.0

(No, I don't know if the rest are insolvent, but they have a chance to save themselves by forming a league, as they did in self-regulation, thanks to the fact that Chinese traders do not use wallets, instead they transfer coins to the most trusted one when they are worried, hence if they "help each other" a real bank run can be delayed - but, it is also a golden opportunity to take down a competitor, e.g. "Hey, Huobi just came to me saying they want a league to fight bank run! They must have a problem, let's make their plead public". FxBTC is known aloof, not working together with other exchanges, it is their bane as it turns out)

Chinese news system alread received instruction from central on what/how to report Bitcoin, whether state media secure the opportunity to paint Bitcoin black or not depends on their judgement of the noise Bitcoin made: Big noise -> paint Bitcoin black, now you see the ponzi scheme; small noice -> no report of Bitcoin allowed, let it die without much debate.

(No I don't think Bitcoin will die, but more bad news from China expected)

Dude dont give a flying fruit cake about your CHINA problems

Us white devils are moving one...you need to sort your own shit out ..let us know when u can contribute constructively to crypto

Otherwise we have all had enough & really dont care...overthrow your repressive regime or something of that nature ...the rest is blah blah blah
That is quite interesting, as China was quite welcome here back in winter 2013. People here are not willing to take the good with the bad, they live in some kind of fantasy world where everything must be positive.
1092  Economy / Speculation / Re: it will reach $5000 before this year ends on: May 12, 2014, 01:59:01 PM
The Winklevoss fund is about to be listed on NASDAQ. 
First of all, creating a new security can take many years. Second, there is no indication by the SEC that it'll be approved. Third, this is not actually adoption, because people buying this can't actually use any real bitcoins and be part of the bitcoin economy. It is only for price speculation, like a CFD.

Bitpay has a huge announcement coming soon.
an announcement about a future announcement about an unknown subject is not even worthy of discussion. that reminds me of mtgox...

Coinbase and Xapo have hinted that Mastercard is coming soon.
hinted?? and this news would hardly qualify as adoption. It will become slightly easier to use coinbase, which already exists - that's not a quantum leap in adoption


You must be so much fun at parties Smiley

I hear TERA is just as fun at parties as he is on here.
I sure would rather trust someone "fun at parties" for economic outlooks and financial advice than someone willing to face truths.
1093  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 11, 2014, 05:25:44 PM
1094  Economy / Speculation / Re: You've all been fooled: China is NOT in control of this market on: May 11, 2014, 04:01:25 PM
You have been fooled, bitcoincharts lists only one of the less important Chinese exchanges.

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=7d

Nothing to discuss.
1095  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2014, 11:05:30 AM
But why exactly did the Chinese exchanges pull out of the bitcoin summit, and what is the real chance they shutdown without notice in the next days?

Shutdown without notice is not that high I think, the chance of a shutdown notice being published is very likely imo.
With a deadline or two, of course!
1096  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2014, 10:44:21 AM
I appear to be firmly at the bottom of the pyramid but bitcoin has returned around %400 of my original investment.
Yes, the author is either as much deluded as his bottom step or he is twisting reality so that it's funnier/deceptive. I don't think insider knowledge is as big an advantage as people make it out to be with regard to Bitcoin; it's extremely difficult to interpret news/events even if you know beforehand. Plus, it's doubtful that important political figures will bother trading Bitcoin. Neither does buy and hold necessarily lead to ruins. There's one case where I think insider knowledge is invaluable though, and that's if you are an exchange operator, at least if your exchange is one of the bigger (more stable in volume) ones.

Anyway, I think it's funny.
1097  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Bitstamp TX Fee Exploit - Charge 1.16% instead of 0.2% without your consent on: May 09, 2014, 10:36:55 AM
They are still going to charge much higher than the posted fees in some cases. The minimum is $5, that's great. But what about $5.01? The fee should be $0.01002 but instead you will be charged $0.02. Okay the breakage seems capped at double now, but that's still a lot.

Their base fee is .5%.
If you place a $5 order you should be charged $0.025, but instead you will be charged $0.03.

In other words, even with their "fix", you'd get charged 20% more than advertised.

I see folks cheering because their answer to the situation was fast...
It's as if the people here would be happy to be served a plate of steaming shit in a restaurant, instead of actual food, as long as the waiter's fast.

so lets close our accounts in Bitstamp and start using your shitty exchange right ? because you've got it all figured out....

It doesn't matter whether he has an exchange thats worse or better he's demonstrating that there is still an issue. Rather than attacking him why don't you raise some valid counter points?
Agree.

It is good to see that Bitstamp has done some improvement to reduce it though. Hopefully they will increase precision eventually.
1098  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2014, 10:21:13 AM

I think I like this one better:

1099  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2014, 10:08:20 AM
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/253p3r/daily_discussion_friday_may_09_2014/chdgyiu
1100  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2014, 09:54:35 AM
Does Houbi start imposing the higher fees on HFT trading starting tomorrow, or was that all just a big fat lie?
Surely the exchanges wouldn't lie to us or the PBOC, would they? Cheesy Cheesy

On the course they're on it's probably only a matter of time until the first one gets arrested.
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