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1081  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 06, 2014, 09:25:55 AM
Chessnut, do you have any data showing the leverage stats in China? If not how can you presume that the end of leveraged trading and force closing all leverage positions would result in a price rise?
I think you know why that is. Cheesy
1082  Economy / Speculation / Re: $438 and going down on: May 06, 2014, 09:20:10 AM
or none of them will be and miners with alternative income sources (say renting hosting space) will hold looking for increases prices in the future reducing the daily supply of new coins to zero.

Yeah, or we can make something up that ignores economics and human behaviour that will suddenly behave differently from the past 7 months.
1083  Economy / Speculation / Re: $438 and going down on: May 06, 2014, 09:13:50 AM
Newly minted coins are all that's needed to crash the market.  The BTC community needs to CONTINUALLY spend more then a million dollars a DAY to support the current price, they can not simple HODL the price up because thouse miners need to have their costs covered.

No.  If miners stop unprofitable mining, difficulty will drop to compensate.  In short, mining costs will always be covered because of this.  Mining difficulty will adjust, meaning less will be spent on hardware and electricity.  So the fiat-value of BTC will not need to cover miners.

The point is that the average profit margins are decreasing across the board, from difficulty increase to difficulty increase, thus a larger portion has to be sold than before to cover running costs. Eventually, the margins will be very tight, and it will be extremely competitive, so that pretty much the entirety of the 3600 daily BTC supply will have to be sold.

If this wasn't true, then the average hashrate growth in % would not be decreasing:

1084  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 06, 2014, 06:54:58 AM
Is the random Chinese pump the ideal time to buy? I would think of that as the worst possible time to buy,  and the ideal time to buy would be when China is completely out of the system.
I suppose it will be a while longer until the rest close down due to unprofitability or get raided if they continue trying to circumvent the PBOC's decrees.
1085  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 05, 2014, 11:06:47 PM
has anyone seen a wall lately?
Has anyone seen anything lately? Volume is so anemic that soon it will be only miners selling off their BTC like clockwork while their marginal profits decrease every 2016 blocks, forcing them to sell off a larger and larger percentage.

The decreasing average hashrate growth is symptomatic of this.

1086  Economy / Speculation / Re: expect a set of 3 articles about China situation and a prediction following on: May 05, 2014, 07:52:44 PM
I'm just curious that what are those Chinese exchange CEOs doing right now? Are they worrying about losing their business license?
Perhaps they are fleeing the country?
1087  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 05, 2014, 05:25:56 PM
So just to be clear: anyone who doesn't think the price will imminently fall to 266 or lower is neither able to read charts nor understand 'even the most basic aspects of TA'? Interesting logic.

I am failing to hear any meaningful arguments as to why the price will drop another 60% to your desired target. Other than you want it to and are positioned appropriately of course.

The truth is you have absolutely no idea where the price will be in a month, a year or further out. Unless you can move the market you are simpl making a guess based upon the past.

It is probably worth remembering that this is the speculation (not trading) forum my good chap. Trading is for most people a mugs game.
Nice strawman, I see we have departed from the discussion at hand. Or do you believe this accusation for real?
1088  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 05, 2014, 04:11:37 PM
Quote
20 billion XRP were retained by the creators, seeders, venture capital companies and other founders. The remaining 80 billion were given to Ripple Labs. Ripple Labs intends to distribute 55 of that 80 billion XRP to charitable organizations, users and strategic partners. Ripple Labs will retain the remaining 25 billion
So they actually get to keep 45% of the whole currency supply, and that's assuming they aren't cheating with the distribution of the 55% (which you can never really know).
1089  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 05, 2014, 04:01:03 PM
Look at this, this is BTC/XRP, so it's displaying the strength of Bitcoin vs. Ripple, and you can see that it's really been in a multi-year uptrend.

Cripple is COLLAPSING while Ripple Labs are disseminating their 100 billion XRP mah87, why on earth are you holding this shitty asset? I remember selling my cripples for values like 5k, 6k, 7k and now it's 80k per BTC. And still nowhere where I would consider buying it.



And just look at this shit, Ripple Labs have only even distributed 7 billion XRP yet (how many do they want to keep for themselves again, 30 billion?) and look what it's done to the price. How long are they going to be distributing, 20 years? It doesn't even seem that there is a road map, they're just doing it willy nilly. https://www.ripplelabs.com/xrp-distribution/
1090  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 05, 2014, 03:54:48 PM
All this hype about CRipple, and all I see on XRP/BTC charts is a downtrend since December compounding the downtrending BTC/USD, and still this nonsense is grossly overvalued at 83k per BTC and a supply of 100 billion XRP, making it worth almost 10% of Bitcoin's market cap. Have they ever bothered to open source the server side yet? At least it's more justified than Blightcoin with over 5%.
1091  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 05, 2014, 01:45:33 PM
Well yes, it's a shame that it is mostly Bitcoin cultists on the one hand and Bitcoin haters on the other, but that's the nature of controversial topics. I like Bitcoin, but I dislike the cultists because they rob themselves of intellectual freedom and attempt to do the same to others.
1092  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: May 05, 2014, 01:34:48 PM

I never get that grapichs. What the red means?
http://www.rtcons.com/wall/explanation.html

Red is asks.
1093  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 05, 2014, 01:26:42 PM

I know that this is your favorite stuff , about bitcoin "cultist" , but shouldn't a mod know that it has already been posted 10 times in this thread?
Thought it was worth reading once again considering the current climate.

Quote
And as time passes and the inevitable fizzle-out of Bitcoin becomes visible, those believers will splinter. More will drop out of the cult. And the ones who remain will only grow more convinced, more zealous, more eager to share the good news.

Remind you of anyone? Cheesy Cheesy
1094  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 05, 2014, 01:21:33 PM
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/03/doomsday-cult-of-bitcoin.html
1095  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 05, 2014, 01:09:55 PM
Windy is hardly a perma bear, he's one of the few here who actually changes his opinion after weighing up what the market is doing.  He was very bullish for the second half of last year, even before the upturn in November.

Everyone seems to be in denial (cue pictures of Egyptians) at the moment but what he is saying is pretty basic -- people have to buy BTC for the price to go up and there is no new currency on the order books, the bid/sum ratio is creeping back to 1:2. 

Everyone seems to think the toothfairy is going to wave her magic wand and buy 50K BTC out of nowhere (but I suspect she is a bit disillusioned with BTC and its associate fraudsters, dodgy exchanges, bans and bad press).

Now, more than ever, its time to realise BTC is about the technology not the currency.

You can predict the future price from the orderbook?

The price has fallen back from the ATH. Last month it hit the low 3xx's. It takes a relatively modest amount of buying to improve the technical picture and break us definitively out of this down trend. Then you will see buying, and when miners see the price rising they will hold out for higher prices and supply will dry up, prices will rise, sentiment on here will magically follow price action and.. you've seen what happens next no doubt.

Do i pretend I know when it will happen? No. But it does not require the intervention of a tooth fairy and I doubt any whale(s) entering the market and triggering a trend change will give advance notice to the trolls on here.

Look, it's not our problem you're unable to read charts, or wrap your head around even the most basic aspects of TA.

Furthermore, if you find yourself in a position where you accuse a (sometimes confrontational, but rarely trolling) user like windjc to be a permabear, who is posting just to manipulate the market, you can be pretty sure you will be one of the many suckers in this game who will learn the hard way that the rules of the market don't stop for Bitcoin.

To be clear: There is disagreeing with someone's opinion or analysis, and then there is sticking your fingers into your ears shouting 'I can't hear you'. For more than a month now, the latter is the dominant response in here by the investors that were lulled into a false sense of security by the various loglinear trendlines that keep being posted in here so often.

They will be in for a rude awakening: if they 'hodl' as advised, they will continue to spend many more uncomfortable hours and days seeing their net value decline. If they finally give in and sell, most of them will note that they haven't equipped themselves with the necessary tools to be effective traders, so they will lose as well.

As a result, the majority will tend to hold, but they will become increasingly vitriolic at any suggestion that the return to the magic exponential growth trendline is not imminent:

"Fuck you, reality! Why can't you already fall in line with my wet dreams of being a billionaire next year?"

FUD
1096  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 05, 2014, 09:46:53 AM
this is nothing new, everyone knows china is banning exchanges, so still a question here, any clues ? no ? so stop with FUD.
aka Facts U Dislike
1097  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bullish Bitstamp Price on: May 05, 2014, 09:39:57 AM
You guys are here microanalyzing 7% movements in BITCOIN which is known for its massive volatility and 800% swings at times.
It's actually noteworthy that Bitstamp is constantly 1-3% above all others. When that happened first with MtGox, it reflected troubles. There are no troubles with withdrawing from Bitstamp that I heard of though, so I have no explanation for it.
1098  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2014, 09:59:49 PM
You apparently don't know me well, I don't like altcoins, but I do like it when they upset the Bitcoin cultists.

I became a mod here 2 years ago because Speculation was pretty much like the altcoin subforum presently is, a trashcan for the global forum, if you can imagine it being even worse than today. Had a timeout and Yuhfhrh someone replaced me for some months until he vanished and I took it up again.

I like bitcoin for the most part (though you will generally only see me being critical since barely anyone else likes engaging in that), I used to be a delusional cheerleader like most, I've made a lot of money off it and hope to continue, and I had the opportunity to learn some technical analysis from good people here.

Hope that answers your questions.
1099  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2014, 09:47:22 PM
Not only that... why is Blitz a mod of a Bitcoin forum? Seriously, why?
It's probably because I'm a lizard banker. Alternatively, might be because I wanted to annoy the hell out of you specifically. Cheesy
1100  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2014, 09:37:09 PM
 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

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