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1081  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2014, 07:09:25 PM
Yours is arbitrary because it uses all candle wicks but one for the trendline. Either you do it by closes, or you do it by high/lows, not both.

Actually, not sure if that's a 'hard rule' of trendlines.

Anyway, the triangle looks fine to me. Broke out upwards. Don't know what porcupine's problem is with it... I think he just doubts that TA could ever dominate fundamentals, news, sentiment, etc.

If there is an actual glitch in the exchange data or it is due to some form of illiquidity (then again, you don't chart illiquid exchanges), then that's ok, but it's a bad idea to assume you can say which is valid and invalid, which is to be included and which ignored. It's the same thing with news, you don't have a framework of judging that, so might as well draw some dinosaurs.
1082  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2014, 06:58:43 PM
Maybe the graph above just looks arbitrarily. This graph is better. And what tells you that? That Bransen and other investors just sit there and drawing lines?
Here, this one works:

Yours is arbitrary because it uses all candle wicks but one for the trendline. Either you do it by closes, or you do it by high/lows, not both.
1083  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2014, 06:44:50 PM
so, I live under a rock and I am lazy as hell

can someone tell me what just happened?

Karpeles made an appearance on Oprah earlier today and pulled the private keys for 600k coins out of his ass.

One at a time.

That would lower the price I think. 600k BTC lost is 2.9% of all Bitcoin that will ever be mined (more than 5% of currently mined ones)

You had to be there to fully appreciate the bullishness of the situation. My tv's still sticky.

 Cheesy

All that time cautioning against rocket pics and suddenly this?!!  Grin

Yeah. Guess being bullish brightens one's mood...

Bear. Not even once.
I make money being bullish, but I can't make any money being bearish in part because I don't trust the exchanges to hold my short, and because Bitcoin is in a long-term bull trend and I probably dare not short it even in an intermediate bear market.
1084  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2014, 06:24:02 PM
so what bit of news has come out to make it jump by $40 overnight?
I see what you did there. Cheesy
1085  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2014, 06:05:03 PM
I was beginning to think that the one thing that could kill bitcoin would be boredom.

Good to see the patient still has a pulse Smiley

+1.  Smiley
You people need to look at the past and realize that congestions are always followed by large moves once the scale is tipped.
Not that hard, is it? Yet it always happens the same, because in humans, emotion drives reason and seldomly the other way around.

And of course, there are the "why did the price surge? any news? what happened? what about china?" cries. Because it couldn't be that price has a will of its own, as a manifestation of the consciousness of people around the world, and that there are some triggers that will incite movement. Nah, must be some NEWS.
1086  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2014, 08:26:38 AM
Isn't it a bad idea to have wallet software in your browser? Even for hot funds, it seems to me as if it would be particularly prone to malware.
1087  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2014, 07:58:20 AM
What I do see being (ab)used ad nauseam is FUD (some news I don't like? Oh yeah, FUD!), and "Facts U Dislike" to me is a counter to that. Fire with fire. Cheesy

As to that, I don't really like the HODL CCMF 2DAMOON either, but you won't see me complaining. And really now, can you even remotely compare the two in frequency? That's why I am bewildered about the (feigned?) annoyance.

PS: Who wrote that quote in your signature? Mat too?
1088  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2014, 07:48:48 AM
There is a difference between using "facts U dislike" for FUD and hodl for hold.  HODL is innocent and a non-substantive form of fun.  

[snip]


So many words. So little information.


LOL...that should be JJG's signature.  Cheesy
"NOT" funny Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
1089  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2014, 07:46:25 AM
Based on my anectodical experience, people who mislike usage of "Facts U Dislike" are prone to mislabeling facts they don't like as FUD, as in "Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt". It's a kneejerk reaction to anything that might not be good, and questions its authenticity and nature.

Based on my psychological skill, the people who keep FUD's original meaning will on average have 10 times better ROI in the next 3 years, compared to the people who troll with "facts you dislike".
But if the "original FUD" crowd, as you certainly believe, makes a fortune, then /10 that fortune is still a fortune and an amazing return. Is that really what you meant to say? Cheesy

There is a difference between using "facts U dislike" for FUD and hodl for hold.  HODL is innocent and a non-substantive form of fun. 

[snip]

'facts U dislike' and 'hodl' are both rather idiotic expressions, at least when used ad nauseam as is common in here
Seriously? Never seen anyone else using it until this particular instance. Where on earth do you see that ad nauseam? Funny how vitriolic people are because of that phrase.
1090  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2014, 06:33:47 AM
Based on my anectodical experience, people who mislike usage of "Facts U Dislike" are prone to mislabeling facts they don't like as FUD, as in "Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt". It's a kneejerk reaction to anything that might not be good, and questions its authenticity and nature.
1091  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2014, 03:44:08 AM
I was beginning to think that the one thing that could kill bitcoin would be boredom.

Good to see the patient still has a pulse Smiley

+1.  Smiley
You people need to look at the past and realize that congestions are always followed by large moves once the scale is tipped.
1092  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2014, 03:12:36 AM
Breakout at last.
1093  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 16, 2014, 05:44:08 PM
Bitcoin has a small risk of going to zero, perhaps 3% annualized. That is about the same as fiat cash, or stocks, so we are talking about a net zero risk.
GENIUS Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
1094  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: May 16, 2014, 12:05:23 AM
Bearish divergence: Price does higher high, indicator does lower high
Hidden bearish divergence: Indicator does higher high, price does lower high

This isn't really a bearish divergence if the slope is just less negative. Plus, you drew it from different points in time for price vs. indicator.

Anyway, I checked it out on bitcoincharts, and there, the daily MACD actually does show a hidden bearish divergence, very strictly speaking (the slope is almost flat). Didn't catch that before, so thanks for that. Grin

Maybe it will help engrave it if I explain it my way too: During a trend, you want the indicator (an indicator is nothing but a filtered/"interpreted" way to look at price history) to align with the price action to signal that the way the price moves doesn't change. And if you are looking at a bullish trend, you want to look at the highs because that's where the momentum is. If there's a divergence in the highs during the bullish trend, then something has probably changed, two views no longer align with each other.

A regular bearish divergence happens for instance when the price makes new highs, but then reverses sharply and retraces untypically little of the drop before candle close, or when the price takes longer to make new highs than before. For the hidden bearish divergence, it could happen when the price simply stops making new highs without a drastic drop while the indicator (MACD is a good example) still goes higher just based on a past moving average. Both is a loss of momentum, it's just that one of the two views is more receptive to some signals while the other filters them out.

This will all depend in detail how the indicator works; there are many variations. I only use the MACD and the RSI myself.

I wouldn't attribute divergences much importance if they happen on a low volume or relatively sideways market because there is just no trend to look at.

tl;dr:

Price goes up, you look at highs. Divergence = bad
Price goes down, you look at lows. Divergence = good
1095  Economy / Speculation / Re: The bubble has finished popping on: May 15, 2014, 06:24:41 PM
But what we see happening, by definition, is not a bubble. Bubbles don't pop 4X or so. They pop and that is the end.

So there has only been one bubble in the stock market and since bubbles can only pop once there will never be a bubble in the future until the end of time?  Good to know. 

I'm trying to think of 1 stock that actually bubbled again and again.
I'm not talking about markets, I'm talking about individual stocks.

Can anyone think of a few? That would be good to know.

Some of the Dotcom bubble companies that survived.
1096  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 12, 2014, 08:48:31 PM
what about ripple ?

Look at this, this is BTC/XRP, so it's displaying the strength of Bitcoin vs. Ripple, and you can see that it's really been in a multi-year uptrend.

Cripple is COLLAPSING while Ripple Labs are disseminating their 100 billion XRP mah87, why on earth are you holding this shitty asset? I remember selling my cripples for values like 5k, 6k, 7k and now it's 80k per BTC. And still nowhere where I would consider buying it.



And just look at this shit, Ripple Labs have only even distributed 7 billion XRP yet (how many do they want to keep for themselves again, 30 billion?) and look what it's done to the price. How long are they going to be distributing, 20 years? It doesn't even seem that there is a road map, they're just doing it willy nilly. https://www.ripplelabs.com/xrp-distribution/
1097  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 12, 2014, 03:12:45 PM
Well, I can hardly refrain now, Can I? Cheesy

the bitcoins were later counted and I cannot say conclusively whether any were stolen.

1098  Economy / Speculation / Re: on the close-down of FxBTC before all users could withdraw on: May 12, 2014, 02:55:09 PM
That it's hypocritical to ignore bad news and say people shouldn't post them while doing the opposite with good news from the same source.

Also, this isn't war. When you speculate on Bitcoin, are you thinking of enemies and allies? Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
War is always about some form of resources. Money is how we trade resources in the modern world. Bitcoin could very easily become worth more than any one nations money supply, le states included. So yes, this is war.
So where's your army, cultist?

Me, I think I prefer looking at things as they are and not being the shill/propagandist for one side as the other in your "war". I much prefer doing well for myself rather than being a heroic soldier being sent off to death. Cheesy
1099  Economy / Speculation / Re: A Chinese look at the situation in China on: May 12, 2014, 02:38:22 PM
zhangweiwu,

Would you say that it is likely that the way this continues with the Chinese exchanges defying the PBOC is, there will be a first arrest/raid of an exchange?
1100  Economy / Speculation / Re: on the close-down of FxBTC before all users could withdraw on: May 12, 2014, 02:32:45 PM
That it's hypocritical to ignore bad news and say people shouldn't post them while doing the opposite with good news from the same source.

Also, this isn't war. When you speculate on Bitcoin, are you thinking of enemies and allies? Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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