1402
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 09, 2014, 07:32:35 PM
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you really think they will directly sell 100% of the coins they get?! imho they decided to jump in the bitcoin train not only to expand their marketshare, but also to make even more profit hodling some of it.. I mean, isnt that all about profit after all? I'm not sure you understand how this works: They do not accept Bitcoins directly. They use a payment processor called Bitpay that guarantees them USD, and Bitpay of course sells them on the open market. edit: Coinbase then, but same principle applies.
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1404
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 09, 2014, 07:26:02 PM
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What's scary on the paper wallet (preferably encrypted using BIP0038)?
It's not the tech, it's trusting it to paper and/or USB. They just seem too fragile. Not just in the physical sense either. I know that well. I think something like Trezor is probably best. Hopefully, that will soon be available for non-ridiculous prices.
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1408
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 09, 2014, 07:16:04 PM
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Major retailers intend to convert to fiat on the fly. Purchasing items is equivalent to selling on an exchange. The price will drop without sufficient new fiat flowing into the exchanges. Pretty much. DeathAndTaxes has made a convincing case as to how an increase in Bitcoin's velocity would reduce its value (ceteris paribus). I agree with him. Bitcoin liquidity, and people actually using it as a currency is really a bad thing for inflated values. Consider what happened after the largest Bitcoin commerce activity to date, Silk Road, was taken out of the picture. If we want to go to da moon, we need to be useless like Gold, not useful like PayPal.
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1409
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 09, 2014, 07:11:02 PM
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Scalping bots can inflate volumes ridiculously high at a 0% fee. You saw the effect when BTCChina introduced a fee. Furthermore, I would not be surprised if at least in part, Huobi's volume was made up by the exchange operators. OKCoin is precedence enough as to the shadiness of Chinese exchanges.
Last but not least, even if we assume that the 0% fee is not that big a factor, Huobi will likely be no more within the next 3 weeks.
So, that is why I decide to disregard them entirely. Or anything else that is Chinese, really.
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1413
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Single digits this weekend?
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on: January 09, 2014, 06:55:33 PM
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We will likely go below $10/BTC this weekend because of the bad news and stuff and things.
So you should sell as much as you can as soon as possible.
This is not a ploy to get your cheap coins when I get paid tomorrow. Honest.
Absolutely agree. I've read those bad news and stuff and things. It's really bad and it's all been clearly confirmed. Newbies take heed: Proudhon is the World's foremost expert on single digits. Never waste a good panic I say. Ghash io is literally Krugman Didn't he predict single digits for 2014 originally? Jury is still out on that one.
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1414
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 09, 2014, 06:51:14 PM
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Don't like the looks of it, and I don't see that changing very soon. Ergo: (relatively small) re-arrangement of my position complete. Just to let you know, arepo the outcome is still fuzzy short-term, but it doesn't look good for the coming week, that's for sure. i'm still expecting a bearish formation up to $875 +/- $10 on stamp before we break under the short-term bottom, but good call on the most recent move down. it's hard to make intraday calls better than chance, and so my focus is usually on risk management, and while i did take a small loss i quickly recouped it and more with a slight re-arrangement of my position as well --arepo Problem is there is no buying. Hard to make a bearish wedge pattern if you can't even move in an upward direction off a bounce. My gut feeling is that there was a lot of enthusiasm that the new year would bring tons of new money right off the bat and in truth the new year hasn't. Its almost like buying the rumor selling the news. I think we are bearish for at least a little bit now. That almost makes me bullish.
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1419
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 09, 2014, 02:12:00 PM
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There is a certain degree of randomness to this calculation because it is based on a rolling average of the past X blocks,
This could also be the reason it peaked to 42 % in the first place. True, could have been a statistical anomaly. Are there any graphs of this with a longer "rolling average" that is less susceptible to change by the most recent blocks? edit: Nameless, I know you're one of the few people here who, like me, won't sacrifice money for ideology or wants.
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1420
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 09, 2014, 02:08:06 PM
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42% actually down to 38-39% today so community reacting?
There is a certain degree of randomness to this calculation because it is based on a rolling average of the past X blocks, so you would have to watch longer term. I'm sure a few people moved over, but as long as the underlying conditions that caused this pool to grow so much do not change, it will likely continue to grow once this reddit flurry is over. Basically: If it loses 5-10% now, do you really think this won't happen again?
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