Couldn't a lot of those services just move to Tor and / or small financial haven countries?
The online wallet guys, sure. But overseas or "anonymous" exchanges have the problem of getting your money into them, and miners who try to mine over Tor will eat big stale rates, especially as blocks begin to grow. Of course, this is all assuming "the government" (human lawmakers and bureaucrats with complicated incentives) cares enough to take punitive action at all. |
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I'm not familiar with other "the government"s, but if you mean the US federal government, if they retaliate at all I seriously doubt it'll involve conspiracy theory tier stuff.
More likely, it'd take the form of strict regulation of exchanges, wallet services, and miners who interact with the traditional money system - the three classes of user that FinCEN has already warned may qualify as MSBs.
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Impatient.
A little worried, but I'm slowly getting better at insulating my sentiment from my trading decisions. I'll silence my worry on the way down, same as I (with one unfortunate exception) silenced my greed on the way up.
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This is all too funny.. i was rocking 80k, now im reduced to a fek thousands each. perhaps its time to throw in the towel?
Unrealized gains aren't real. Sorry. |
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This is how NYSE & Nasdaq do it (trading curbs, circuit breakers). Interesting that FOREX currencies don't halt. If we had drifted below yesterdays low today, we would've had another major sell-off (still could). So they halted it before it went below major psychological support because they would have lagged out anyways. We'll probably see the bot bids try to fiercely keep it up when it starts trading tonight. I'll be curious to see how they avoid a lag with the kind of volume that will coming into this....
With NYSE and Nasdaq, if they close down you have to go over-the-counter, and more importantly you keep control of both relevant assets so you can still make your trades. If I wanted to sell right now with the coins I have on Mt. Gox, I could do it by going to another exchange. If I wanted to buy right now with the fiat I have on Mt. Gox, I can't do it because my money can't leave Mt. Gox in any reasonable amount of time. That's the fundamental difference, to me. |
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but mtgox is the leading exchange, when price moves on gox others follow, price cannot completely crash on other bitcoin exchanges till gox lets market move again, the selling you see in the other sites is minor, just people willing to take loss, so that in the event of gox continued selling into the unknown they are not trapped.
So your contention is that if Mt. Gox is down, people who would otherwise panic sell won't just panic move-to-another-exchange-and-sell? Who in their right mind, believing that the price is going down, would not sell just because their favorite exchange is closed? |
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It was stupid, plain and simple.
A trading freeze on Mt. Gox doesn't stop people from selling; bitcoins are easy to transfer from exchange to exchange (that's the whole point) so anyone who really wanted to sell has already sold by moving their coins to other exchanges.
A trading freeze does, however, prevent buying by people with national currencies that take hours or days to transfer out of the frozen exchange.
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On the one hand a tumultuous rush for the exit seems inevitable
It's my contention that anyone desperate to sell has already sold by transferring their BTC to an exchange that's still in operation. Whereas, buying depends on already having fiat in non-Gox exchanges. |
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I wired at 4am UTC.......long before it was frozen.....
Ah. Rough luck, then.  |
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Why on earth are you wiring to the frozen exchange?
Wire to bitstamp or bitfloor or any of the exchanges that are open right now. Take advantage of the USD shortage and scoop up cheap coins!
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Apr 11, 2013, 17:08:36 123.40098 0.00
Apr 11, 2013, 17:08:36 123.40098 13.37 Seems like it's continuing. What on earth is a 0BTC trade, anyway? |
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 It happened again. I wonder if Mt. Gox forgot to turn off one of its APIs? |
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So the people more eager to buy did it even at 250 -or during the bull trap at 200-170. So now ther's scarcity of USD you could say...
There's scarcity of USD because everyone's USD is tied up in a frozen exchange where it takes 3-5 days to withdraw. (Compare to their bitcoins, which can easily be moved elsewhere to sell in 1-2 hours). The $64,000 question is whether people are withdrawing that money right now, or waiting to buy when Gox comes online again. |
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Continue trading as if nothing happened.
When the arbitrageurs stabilize the price between exchanges, I'll start moving my capital out of Mt. Gox via the Bitcoin network (using a simultaneous "buy on Gox, sell on secondary exchange" to transfer the fiat).
I probably won't totally close my Gox account, but they won't be my only exchange anymore; if they froze trading once, they can do it again, and this volatility is something I don't want to miss out on.
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1) When trading on Gox reopens, I'll trade according to my usual strategy (which might indicate buying or selling, depending on what happens when the dry powder trapped there gets uncorked) until the arbitrageurs manage to close the exchange gap. Meanwhile, put a bunch of my non-speculative BTC on other exchanges.
2) When the price on Gox ceases to be significantly higher than the price on other exchanges, buy there and withdraw to refill my personal purse. Meanwhile sell equivalent amounts on the other exchanges. Continue this until my exposure to Gox has become only a portion of my exposure to Bitcoin exchanges in general.
3) Continue trading on all such exchanges (Gox included) according to my usual strategy.
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Bitfloor isn't down. Currently trading at about a Benjamin.  |
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Trading is halted until 2013-04-12 02:00am UTC to allow the market to cooldown following the drop in price. Read more details on the support. Additionally trading fees will not be charged within 48 hours of trading resuming (until 2013-04-14 02:00am UTC). From MtGoxs website. Its outright price manipulation; if the price is going to fall, let it fall. It's not just manipulation, it's boneheaded manipulation. BTC transfers are fast. Fiat transfers are slow, and MTGOX-USD codes can't be created anymore. So people's dry powder is locked up on a frozen exchange, but cashing out their BTC is as simple as waiting for the transfer to a secondary exchange of their choice. If they were trying to prop up the price, they picked a pretty awful way to do it! |
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The weird thing about deciding to halt trading is that it imbalances the market towards selling.
You can move your BTC to another exchange easily, so cashing out is as simple as waiting a couple hours for the transactions to confirm.
But there's no trading and no MTGOX-USD codes, so your dry powder has to take the slow boat through the traditional banking system.
I expect that as soon as they reopen trading there will be huge buy pressure as people's trading fiat comes back online.
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