Bitcoin Forum
August 18, 2018, 08:55:29 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.16.2  [Torrent].
 
  Home Help Search Donate Login Register  
  Show Posts
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 [52] 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 »
1021  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin's first major deflation event, and its consequences on: April 12, 2013, 04:23:18 PM
is it too soon for i told you so? Roll Eyes

Based on your argument, an "I told you so" would be fitting when we hit the utility value based on Bitcoins equivalent M1 to GDP - I estimate it would be somewhere between $2 and $20.

"I told you so" before that point might appear as if you are giving credit to the current price being the bottom based on your argument. 

i don't think we've bottomed out yet. but we're definitely within the range of sustainable price again. we shed 80% of the value of one coin in 3 days. that's completely unprecedented. it was all just some stuff.

before this the largest collapse in value was after the June bubble, which collapsed by 90% over the course of months. the 'i told you so' is because this was very, very irresponsible and we brought it on ourselves. also because i got shouted down these past 3 months, when i was talking something like sense the whole time.
1022  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bear appreciation thread.... on: April 12, 2013, 04:18:05 PM
... during the first bubble, the prices were not sustainable because the irrational bulls converted all of their fiat to btc and there reached a point where the influx suddenly stopped. this caused a panic and a huge correction, which left many, many bag-holders in its wake.

this time around, the influx of new buyers isn't slowing. people with little to no exposure of bitcoin are rushing to buy simply because the price has been going up, up, up. it's the same psychology, except the scale is much larger and the price is much higher for many more coins. smart money pulls its asks because it sees that the fundamentals are different this time around, and there won't be a huge crash. selloffs are immediately absorbed by new buyers who don't understand the risk of purchasing an asset whose price has made 500% gains in the last year.

[this] ... will inevitably lead to massive profit-taking, predatory speculation, and price volatility.

i could tell that the sentiment was dangerously optimistic way back in February, but in this game of musical chairs everyone was willing to wait a lot longer before the music stopped.

i was told i was a filthy keynesian who hated deflation. (in so many words) Grin
1023  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin's first major deflation event, and its consequences on: April 12, 2013, 03:39:48 PM
... during the first bubble, the prices were not sustainable because the irrational bulls converted all of their fiat to btc and there reached a point where the influx suddenly stopped. this caused a panic and a huge correction, which left many, many bag-holders in its wake.

this time around, the influx of new buyers isn't slowing. people with little to no exposure of bitcoin are rushing to buy simply because the price has been going up, up, up. it's the same psychology, except the scale is much larger and the price is much higher for many more coins. smart money pulls its asks because it sees that the fundamentals are different this time around, and there won't be a huge crash. selloffs are immediately absorbed by new buyers who don't understand the risk of purchasing an asset whose price has made 500% gains in the last year.

[this] ... will inevitably lead to massive profit-taking, predatory speculation, and price volatility.

is it too soon for i told you so? Roll Eyes
1024  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bear appreciation thread.... on: April 12, 2013, 03:20:13 PM
Single digits still aren't out of the question...I expect this thing to slide downward for a while.  I think the speculators and true believers will keep this thing from going to zero, though.

I'm willing to mortgage my shirt and my mother's shirts to buy at $10 (now regretting not having done so back when it was last $10) so single digits will be difficult. Grin


would you do that still if it dropped to $10.50 today?

unfortunately for you, if the vast majority of new userbase decides to get out of the game completely, we'll go right back to where we were less than a year ago. single digits.

excuse my repetition, but remember: Bitcoin has been worth single digits or less for about half of its lifetime. Before 2013, bitcoin had only ever been worth more than $20 for two brief weeks, during a period generally known to all as an aberration.
1025  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bear appreciation thread.... on: April 12, 2013, 03:14:32 PM
Come on in and give it up for proudhon, me, daily anarchist, and all the others that tried to warn you, we'll be watching this thing slide down with popcorn in our hands!! (maybe next time youll listen)

+me, lucif, adam

getting shouted down sucks Tongue but bulls and bears are friends, guys, you wouldn't make money without the other  Wink
1026  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does anyone know where the BTC price is heading? on: April 12, 2013, 03:07:45 PM


-===-

if anything, the bitcoin market is more efficient now.

we shed 80% of the inflated price in 3 days. this price collapse is unprecedented in bitcoin history with the exception of the 90+% collapse of the June bubble, but that occurred over many months. in that way this is the single largest collapse in bitcoin history.

of course, it was necessary. i think reddit is largely to blame here, judging by the explosion in the subscriber base to /r/bitcoin and because the rally was already showing signs of exhaustion around $40 -- it was a bubble on top of a bubble.

we were enjoying 'sustainable exponential growth' (linear on a log graph) before the price went parabolic above $40, and then immediately corrected. this led into a long period of triangular consolidation that brokeout strongly UP, sparking the continuation of the parabolic move. at this point our fates were sealed.


the good news is...

...that we've already reached an important support/resistance in the Price-Volume Trend. right now we are about 50% higher than the most recent low of $50, suggesting that the ratio of buying to selling pressure may be reaching a critical point. this could yield a short period of sideways consolidation before another large move, likely down, but there are also alternate scenarios. the support pictured above suggests that if we consolidate for any significant amount of time (i.e. if we enter a long period of low volatility like we saw in the April-June period of last year) it would be very bullish indeed.
1027  Economy / Speculation / Re: arepo's easy TA on: April 12, 2013, 02:41:56 PM
Update:

today, with little surprise, we're seeing a continuation of the downtrend. unfortunately, btccharts seems to be suffering from 'friendly' ddos, or simply an overload of queries. without consultation of the indicators, i can't yet prognosticate about the bottom.

as of this post however, we're at $78 up from a bottom around $50. this correction to the downtrend might be a sign of exhaustion already, or may simply be a consolidation period. i strongly suspect there to be significant support at the last high of $31.50, and 'impenetrable support' at the last stable price in the low teens.

-arepo

if you profit from me, help keep it free!
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
1028  Economy / Speculation / Re: So, I spent the morning learning about the various financial indicators on: April 12, 2013, 01:37:51 PM
...am I mistaken, or are they all screaming in unison SELL!!! SELL FOR YOUR DEAR LIFE!? Tongue

Watch your head for falling knives. Just in case  Wink

you've got it wrong. they were saying that 2 days ago. it's almost time to buy again, soon, depending on how vertical the movements are.
1029  Economy / Speculation / Re: How does it feel to have bought bitcoins over $80 earlier? on: April 12, 2013, 01:35:38 PM
this place has been a sicklied o'er shithole. im excited to see more rationality in the coming months.
1030  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does anyone know where the BTC price is heading? on: April 12, 2013, 01:07:18 PM
this thread is like walking through a madhouse. you're delusional if you think today's candle is going to be green.
1031  Economy / Speculation / Re: arepo's easy TA on: April 12, 2013, 12:56:25 PM
why all the hate guys? if you don't like my analysis, don't waste your time and energy snarking about it. every time you post you bump my thread and it gets more views Cheesy

this thread was for people new to TA who might want to learn a little about it. i know many of you think TA is bunk, but making that assertion over and over again in all of my threads gets real old real fast considering that there are a number of people who would actually appreciate this work.

i tried to have an open conversation about it about a month ago in "in defense of technical analysis" and i got more accusations of being a charlatan. why do you think i left? because i was ashamed of my incorrect predictions? i can handle being wrong, it happens to every trader. can you handle me being wrong?

most of the predictions i do make, i do not post. like this one. i recognized this pattern, and the 'prediction' of the resumption of the trend played out like it often does. after-the-fact, i wanted to share this textbook inverse pennant. SwannyMatt says basically the same exact thing in this thread, but he has no group of dedicated "PROTECTORS OF THE PEOPLE" to remind everyone to ignore him...

you're seriously damaging my reputation over a personal vendetta surrounding the fact that the last time i did serious work i believed that the market was heading in the opposite direction as you. that doesn't make us enemies, that's silly.

More "technical analysis" from a guy who hasn't made a single right call.. no thanks.

Why I don't agree with everything arepo says, he did say that we will fall far from $7 back in January 2012. And if you remember correctly, price went down to sub $4 then, before regaining strength a lot later.

thanks for the backup haha

yeah i've been doing this awhile but my model was way off earlier this year. i've been a bull for most of the time i've known about bitcoin and the one time i convince myself that the price isn't stable, we shoot up to record-setting highs Cheesy oh well. at least there was no skin off of my own back.
1032  Economy / Speculation / Re: We Are Here: on: April 12, 2013, 07:21:04 AM


i'm going to take you seriously and answer you honestly, passing no judgment in between. it seems many here are incapable of that.

let's take your hypothesis for granted, and explore the possibilities:

your claim causes one to zoom way out on the price picture, meaning that the timescales that we are dealing with are huge. if you consider the time scale, the whole life of bitcoin amounts to one half of the total length of the time axis (conveniently unmarked). the (failed) double top formation occurs at about 3/4. this means that we may not see the biggest bitcoin bubble for an order of years.

while many expect to see serious price action tomorrow, the movement right now is much less vertical than the large 'knife' that fell from $266. this lends credence to your hypothesis because the 'bear trap' is a smooth slide. if we see more knives tomorrow, however, this would break your model and weigh the evidence back in favor of 'burst bubble'

further, even if your scaled-out vision is correct, the magnitude of that bear trap most certainly varies in practice as opposed to the ideal curve. depending on the resistance on the way down, we could even dip below the old high of $31.50 on the medium term and it would still fit your model. "mean growth" for bitcoin is minuscule compared to recent growth.

Remember, bitcoin has been worth single digits or less for about half of its lifetime. Before 2013, bitcoin had only ever been worth more than $20 for two brief weeks, during a period generally known to all as an aberration.

-arepo
1033  Economy / Speculation / Re: arepo's easy TA on: April 12, 2013, 04:02:16 AM
I do write-ups about my models after my models have been exhausted (public predictions can create complications)

context.

i meant that this was an after-the-fact writeup, not a prediction.
1034  Economy / Speculation / Re: arepo's easy TA on: April 12, 2013, 04:00:18 AM
are you guys my sworn enemies or something? geez.

you didn't even read my post. the OP is stuff that's ALREADY HAPPENED. i'm not making any predictions or attempting to garner any followers..

please stop spamming my threads with general flaming.
1035  Economy / Speculation / Re: TANKING?? bitstamp is up?? on: April 12, 2013, 03:47:30 AM
Grin there how about some good positive news. instead of FEAR UNSERTANTY DEATH HAHAHA

are you scared yet?
1036  Economy / Speculation / Re: 60k volume right at the time Mt Gox pulled offline WTF??? on: April 12, 2013, 03:04:37 AM
Something very unnatural is going on at MtGox right now. The price is $50. That just doesn't make sense even.

i feel for you, man. a lot of people were very greedy and it always ends the same way. i'm assuming, but you probably didn't know much about bitcoin before it broke it's all-time high, $31. I figured then that there would be another speculative bubble, driving the price up to $100, maybe!

Bitcoin has been worth single digits or less about half of its lifetime. Before 2013, bitcoin had only ever been worth more than $20 for two brief weeks, during a period generally known to all as an aberration.

we dun goofd again
1037  Economy / Speculation / Re: arepo's easy TA on: April 12, 2013, 02:40:27 AM
Cool, where do you think it is going now? haha  Grin

I do write-ups about my models after my models have been exhausted (public predictions can create complications). There is more work to be done to call a bottom, and models become less accurate the more extrapolation is done. The best I can say is either a mid-term downtrend (slide) OR more vertical movements as EA's and other big wallets unload some of their coins in order to realize recent gains, and then an immediate resumption of the uptrend, as the knives will overshoot and the correction upward at the bottom will immediately be supported by the quickly growing userbase. I have no targets but we're incredibly overbought. Absolute bottom ('impenetrable support') is probably around $10-15. I have no coins, but I am no bear. I will be well-stocked in cheap coins once we bottom out.

If there is demand, I will present another write-up in a week. There will be enough new data to start projecting again.

a bunch of bear's hindsight BS

are you butthurt? this is some of the best work I've done Sad
you're quite good at what you do, too. i would appreciate constructive criticisms, if you have any.

I'm just demonstrating TA for those unfamiliar with it.
1038  Economy / Speculation / Re: arepo's easy TA on: April 12, 2013, 02:33:33 AM
Follow up:

So I can hear you all saying, "hey, you can't show self-similarity with just one example!" I just wanted not to overload the newbies. My analysis is very technical.

For all interested parties, I do have a particularly beautiful example of self-similarity. This chart was saved while we were still in the mid-$100s:

-===-



-===-

Outlined is a mid-scale "triangle reversal" pattern in the ADX which has the same behavior as the smaller-scale inverse pennant in the OP. It shows an oscillating 'ascending triangle' pattern that close with a diverging "momentum" and "direction" line. I'd upload the updated chart but the site is currently down, so I urge you to look for yourself and see what happened! The ADX momentum line overshot, mirroring* the bulltrap (this is more than just coincidence, even though the quantities measured, price vs momentum, are much different), and then fell in step with the downward movement.

[ *The shape is similar because similar 'physical' constraints are acting on the quantities, but the nature is quite different. The blue line follows price 'momentum'. It is an oscillating formation because volatility can be modeled by a modulated sine curve, and momentum follows volatility during a trend. When price oscillates, it is as if there are "equal and opposite forces" acting on it, like the Newton's Cradle, but when volatility oscillates, its amplitude changes over time in a self similar way, as in composition of sine functions.

That is, if the momentum line of the ADX were averaged and smoothed, it would behave like a stretched-out sine function itself, with near-linear slopes and large, shallow peaks and troughs. So it can be modeled as a sine curve tracing out another sine curve on a much larger scale. (More self-similarity!)
]

Anyway, the point is if you average out an ascending triangle as seen in the ADX in the $100s, you get an upward slope. The upside breakout represents the peak in momentum, which is a reversal signal. Same pattern, different constraints, coinciding with mathematical harmony! This is why I love TA. Grin

1039  Economy / Speculation / arepo's easy TA on: April 12, 2013, 02:33:18 AM
disclaimer: I've been out of this game for a long time. This is simply an outline of how the current price pattern follows a known phenomenon called the "Bearish Pennant" (Inverse Pennant)

This is for all you newbie speculators out there! (I've seen your post count and join date Tongue)

The price function is a complex thing. It is dangerous to go with your gut unless you know your gut is very smart. Price movements are stochastic, meaning, like in quantum physics, they are impossible to predict with 100% accuracy. Don't be so sure of yourself. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Quantify and minimize risk to the level with which you are comfortable. And I sincerely hope you didn't get burned too bad in this recent recklessness.

Fortunately, although price movements are stochastic, they do exhibit time-dependent autocorrelations. This just means that there are deterministic rules in play as well, whose influence is visible through self-similar patterns.

A basic analogy goes as follows:
Imagine betting someone a bitcoin that you could tell them the exact shape of the next snowflake to drop. This is ludicrous, and you would obviously lose, as the process of snowflake formation is so chaotic that that knowledge is profoundly beyond your grasp. It would make sense to bet that the next snowflake is hexagonal though, and you'd take the money of any fool who took that bet. Because of the physical constraints of the shape of the water molecule on the chaotic process of snowflake formation, it is possible to make some, limited predictions.

Let's see some of these self-similar patterns, then!

-===-



-===-

HANDY GUIDE:

A is easy. The first confirmation of the downtrend occurred when the price formed a symmetrical top with $266 at its peak. Before the move up, there was a brief low-volume period around $230. The breaking of that support confirms the downtrend.

B is the triangle consolidation shape that is what is referred to as the "pennant". In my physics-based model of price, it is analogous to a Newton's Cradle that is quickly losing energy (oscillation with decreasing amplitude). The phenomenon of triangle formation is widespread (there was a brilliant one around $140 that was a bullish pennant -- broke out topside). These formations must be accompanied by decreasing volume in order to behave predictably.

C tests the critical resistance. It is the interesting 'last ditch effort' of the suppressed upwards correction. It is referred to as a "breakout" both because it breaks out of the tightening range, but also because the candle has a suddenly large volume in stark contrast to the waning volume inside the formation. This fully confirms the pattern. This candle generally reaches only as high as the highest point on the wide back-end of the triangle (in this picture it only reaches halfway), but is a nasty bulltrap* because it signals the failure of the price to overcome the resistance (white line near C) which the price was consolidating against. This is followed by the continuation of the trend, D.


*Why does this occur? Why not an immediate downside breakout into the trend continuation? The 'signal' explanation (above) is decent in terms of basic understanding, but is not complete. In my physics model, it is equivalent to momentum. In order to jump, one needs to push against the floor with a force equal and opposite. In a way, the price is 'bouncing off of a ceiling' as opposed to 'jumping', where the price pushes against the critical resistance to gain enough momentum to continue the downward motion.


-===-

Also, for all you "hindsight is 20/20" naysayers, I had plenty of foresight. I hope this will help my somewhat tarnished TA reputation  Cheesy

From SwannyMatt's Bearish Inverse Pennant Chart Formation

it's all there -- the steadily decreasing volume throughout the pennant and just now, the spike in volume and price associated with the 'pattern confirmation'. this small spike is actually a bulltrap/sell signal for the smart money. get ready. target: sub $150 on the scale of ten hours

-===-

-arepo

if you profit from me, help keep it free!
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
I put in a lot of effort and time to present detailed analysis for the forum's benefit,
If you learned from me, please take the time to tell me what you think it's worth.

1040  Economy / Speculation / Re: PROUDHON was NOT RIGHT on: April 12, 2013, 12:49:15 AM
PROUDHON was NOT RIGHT

...



...




...



Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 [52] 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 »
Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!