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1161  Economy / Speculation / Re: Scared yet? (poll) on: February 14, 2013, 08:14:50 AM

down we go
1162  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: February 14, 2013, 07:05:04 AM
And of course, bottom trend line posted somewhere above



bravo. this one's good. when did you draw that line?
1163  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does this forum have bears? on: February 14, 2013, 05:58:15 AM
I guess nobody has seen a V-Reversal before.

Well, almost nobody Smiley

count me in
1164  Economy / Speculation / Re: Crash, what crash? on: February 14, 2013, 05:25:52 AM
Right back to record 2013 highs... nothing happened here, folks

this kind of buying pressure is terrifying, frankly.



we're going to bubble top, just watch...

new hypothesis of bitcoin bubbles: pattern with waves of new investors.
1165  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do you have the time for LIftoff? Is this how a rocket works? on: February 14, 2013, 05:18:18 AM
1166  Economy / Speculation / Re: reversal on: February 14, 2013, 04:55:36 AM
the mass index is the most important signal here. generally, the reversal doesn't take trend until the volatility at least peaks, and often not until it reaches back below the marked threshold. this is why i'm not surprised we're continuing slowly up. i just hope the top doesn't bubble up...
1167  Economy / Speculation / Re: bubble or bulltrap? on: February 14, 2013, 04:42:16 AM
and the verdict: bulltrap

Hmm...

Definition of 'Bull Trap'
A false signal indicating that a declining trend in a stock or index has reversed and is heading upwards when, in fact, the security will continue to decline.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bulltrap.asp#ixzz2KqPT5SHR

so it's looking more like a beartrap now, huh? Undecided

i'm referring here to a misleading bullish breakout of a price channel, which has the same psychological effect. bulls buy for renewed rally, but the price just needed the momentum to correct.

anyway, with the buying pressure so strong (we've already retraced 100% of the correction!), we may indeed get a bubble top after all.
1168  Economy / Speculation / Reversal! on: February 14, 2013, 04:24:56 AM
10-DAY 2-HOUR MICRO-TERM analysis

1. MACD (moving-averages)
shows double top pattern, representing the recent 'flattening' of prices.

2. Mass Index (volatility-based reversal signal)
reversal [short-term downtrend] will commence when the volatility calms back under the red/blue band

3. MFI (volume-based)
shows bearish divergence against the quick price recovery, partly due to decreasing volume slope

4. Chaikin Money Flow (also volume-based)
bearish divergence approaching a crossover signal



i rest my case.
1169  Economy / Speculation / Re: [poll] - when will the rally end? on: February 14, 2013, 02:16:31 AM
the knife signals the correction. the knife itself is just profit-taking/panic-selling, yes.
1170  Economy / Speculation / Re: [poll] - when will the rally end? on: February 14, 2013, 01:58:32 AM
Man, we corrected a day of gains. You aregot such a prophetprofit.

i guess you didnt have your bids in position? Tongue

i don't think you'd be complaining.

plus, the knife reached almost to $21. thats a lot more than a few days' gain.

edited
1171  Economy / Speculation / Re: [poll] - when will the rally end? on: February 14, 2013, 01:52:29 AM



the last time we re-entered the overbought (red) after crossing the centerline but not reaching blue, there was a significant correction.

you were warned.

1172  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where is the damn correction??? on: February 14, 2013, 01:46:11 AM
I do hope from time to time there are 60% retracements, so that BTC attract only true believers, speculators will definitely get shaked out by a 60% retracement and stay away

...

Speculators mostly use TA, but none of TA can deal with a fast crash which break all the indicators in a very short time frame, either it is trend following based or momentum based/ swing trading. And from a risk management point of view, suddenly lose 60% of holding value is also not acceptable

fast crashes occur less and less often as the market matures

also, some 'fast crashes' are recognizable because they occur when a regular correction becomes panic selling. i called this knife when i saw a bulltrap yesterday (see 'bubble or bulltrap')
1173  Economy / Speculation / Re: bubble or bulltrap? on: February 14, 2013, 01:43:18 AM
and the verdict: bulltrap

1174  Economy / Economics / Re: Currency War Imminent on: February 13, 2013, 09:46:09 PM
Isnt one of the reasons the soviet union went bankrupt that they just kept printing rubles? Isnt that what we are doing now with the dollar just printing more money with nothing to back it ? If this is the case wouldnt it be expected that we too will have a large scale economic downfall?
I'm really new at this economic stuff so, take it easy on me if i sound retarded. I do appreciate any helpful feed back though, the simpler the better. I just learned what fiat meant if that gives you any idea where im at

simple but nuanced feedback: what you say is correct, but there are far more factors contributing. the analogy suffers from oversimplification. just keep delving into economic theory and you'll get a better grasp of the scope of the situation.
1175  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin's first major deflation event, and its consequences on: February 13, 2013, 08:41:15 PM

It is just a wishfully thinking if you believe bitcoin's road to currency would be smooth and easy.


this is probably </thread>. i'm just worried that the wave of new investors or whatever is behind this price action knows not what they do.
1176  Economy / Speculation / Re: bubble or bulltrap? on: February 12, 2013, 02:16:26 PM
the assumption is that is has been a trending market, but that it just broke out of that pattern (see the OP).

you disagree?

I do disagree. All I see on the chart in OP is a line which starts in bottom left corner and stops in top right corner. This is basically definition of a trending bullish market, the rest is noise.


uh, that's not how oscillators work. unless you're talking about the price data?

'a line' doing anything means wildly different things depending on what that line represents. there are indicators which when trending up indicate downward pressure...
1177  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where is the damn correction??? on: February 12, 2013, 01:56:59 PM
I do hope from time to time there are 60% retracements, so that BTC attract only true believers, speculators will definitely get shaked out by a 60% retracement and stay away

...

Speculators mostly use TA, but none of TA can deal with a fast crash which break all the indicators in a very short time frame, either it is trend following based or momentum based/ swing trading. And from a risk management point of view, suddenly lose 60% of holding value is also not acceptable

fast crashes occur less and less often as the market matures
1178  Economy / Speculation / Re: bubble or bulltrap? on: February 12, 2013, 01:53:10 PM
the assumption is that is has been a trending market, but that it just broke out of that pattern (see the OP).

you disagree?
1179  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin's first major deflation event, and its consequences on: February 12, 2013, 01:51:14 PM
"this brings us back to a very important, and possibly dangerous, idea: the deflationary spiral. users are reluctant to sell their coins because of the idea of larger future worth (standard deflation), which causes them to hoard their coins which creates a feedback loop which increases the perceived value of the coins."

The question is: Who gets burned in the end?

Certainly not me, since im slowly selling my bitcoins, securing my gains in fiat.
Certainly not merchants who due to prices instability are converting into fiat instantly. They also dont seem to lose their customer base, since me and other people who are leaving the "hot potato game" love to buy stuff and have fun with it.

But

At whos expence we are buying those goods, services or fiat?

Hoarders? Naaaaaaah that cant be!

you're exactly right. the bagholders will be the hoarders who bank on the deflation for profit. there is a lot of greed in the air on the speculations sub. 'cashing out' i.e. purchasing things with your profits, is the smart thing to do. hoarding coins is like re-investing interest payments into a ponzi, except worse because it is a self-reinforcing behavior.
1180  Economy / Speculation / Re: bubble or bulltrap? on: February 12, 2013, 01:38:26 PM



the last time we re-entered the overbought (red) after crossing the centerline but not reaching blue, there was a significant correction.

this oscillator indicates the same thing as the OP, but could also mean either a bubble or a bulltrap.
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