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121  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Weekly Newsletter Discussion and Analysis -- UPDATE on: March 19, 2014, 12:55:15 AM
---
2-hour scale, Money Flow Index


http://i.imgur.com/6bCFwcU.png

---

here we have two possible moving resistances. BLUE resistance has 3 points of contact and 1 violation. GREEN resistance has 6 points of contact and 4 violations. violations of supports/resistances in oscillator data are far more common than in price data, so i do feel that GREEN is the best model in this case. we are threatening to break out of this pattern, but as long as we're trapped under this bound i would expect more downwards movement. we're not out of this hole yet...

--arepo
122  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 19, 2014, 12:50:21 AM
Who are these crazy people buying in with this empty orderbook with no bid support now, and on tradingview the macd is down.

i guess you're short? Tongue

and only fools, i suppose... or we're the fools. time will tell.
123  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2014, 05:03:03 PM
1d and 4h charts:

(see above)

and there you have the fractal nature of price... it's almost unbelievable, isn't it?

Yeah... I opened the chart with 4h candles and saw it immediately, it was so obvious! "Hey, I know this pattern!"

yes, it's quite striking. making predictions based on fractal analysis is a little trickier though, because the structure is the same but the detail is still stochastic.
124  Economy / Speculation / Re: Newbie Day Trader Ques on: March 18, 2014, 04:58:00 PM
Effective (experienced) day traders actually dampen volatility.  It's the panic sellers and buyers (amateur traders) that create volatility.

+1
125  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2014, 04:51:42 PM
1d and 4h charts:


and there you have the fractal nature of price... it's almost unbelievable, isn't it?

it's dumb. SO DUMB.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerology

self-similarity in the price function is a measurable and consistent property. numerology is pareidolia.
126  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2014, 04:47:16 PM
1d and 4h charts:



and there you have the fractal nature of price... it's almost unbelievable, isn't it?
127  Economy / Speculation / Re: my intuition says: we're sitting on a rocket about to be ignited on: March 18, 2014, 04:45:18 PM
If everyone thinks the price is going up than nobody is selling because everyone means, well.. everyone.

if everyone thinks the price is going to go up, they're already entirely in BTC. since everyone is in BTC, there is no fiat left to actually push the price up. the first person to actually realize this is incentivized to sell before anyone else does to get the best price for their coins, and for fear of selling too late at a possible loss. everyone else follows. this is where game theory helps in understanding price behavior.

My post was only sarcasm to bullshit wanna be serious theoretical responds like one you just did to phillipsjk's funny sarcastic one. Do you seriously think the stuff you posted in last 2-3 posts on this thread is some kind of wisdom?

Jeez, I wouldn't want to be at party with some of you guys, you're boring as rain in October.

fair enough. wasn't sure if philip was being sarcastic or not because of Poe's Law -- sounds exactly like something a newbie would actually believe Cheesy checking out philips post history and join date though it's obvious he is an oldfag like us Tongue

that being said, i figured it would be worth pointing out in case of newbie lurkers who might actually think that such a line of thought is rational or correct haha

also i find a particular elegance in game theory, so sue me Tongue or just avoid the parties i go to. i would rather be at the party with the mathematicians and scientists anyway Wink

--arepo
128  Economy / Speculation / Re: my intuition says: we're sitting on a rocket about to be ignited on: March 18, 2014, 04:37:40 PM
If everyone thinks the price is going up than nobody is selling because everyone means, well.. everyone.

if everyone thinks the price is going to go up, they're already entirely in BTC. since everyone is in BTC, there is no fiat left to actually push the price up. the first person to actually realize this is incentivized to sell before anyone else does to get the best price for their coins, and for fear of selling too late at a possible loss. everyone else follows. this is where game theory helps in understanding price behavior.
129  Economy / Speculation / Re: my intuition says: we're sitting on a rocket about to be ignited on: March 18, 2014, 04:31:44 PM
Well, crap. if everybody is in agreement the price is going to go up: that probably means I missed another buying opportunity.

if everyone thinks the price is going to go up its probably going to fall as everyone is fully invested and there is no one to buy the coins the bears are selling.  A market always follows the path of maximum possible pain.


+1

was gonna say this. an efficient market moves to minimize profits. always.
130  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin will be unable to break its shell on: March 18, 2014, 04:22:35 PM
Quote

if the mining system "looks like bull" you probably don't know enough about it. miners are always in competition with each other, and you can enter or exit the mining pool whenever you wish. not really first come, first served.

You probably didn't understand my question, i am actually talking about the early birds, not people with ASICS. And even if we talk about miners, why is so much precious energy being wasted to earn 0.00 of coins that a single person holds 5% of the total. The thing is that a currency should only be 'earned', not printed at home.

and again i can tell that you simply have a lack of understanding. i do not mean to be patronizing, at all -- you asked for constructive criticism! -- and it just seems now that you're moving the goalposts? you brought up miners in the OP...

anyway, all i meant to say is don't think it's fair to characterize mining as first come, first serve. also, miners are securing the network, that's why they're being rewarded. the protocol rewards miners for making the payment system secure, so in this way they "earn" the bitcoins by providing a service to the bitcoin economy.

edit: also, as if USD, the world's reserve currency, isn't just "printed at home [banks]" Cheesy

--arepo
131  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin will be unable to break its shell on: March 18, 2014, 03:56:41 PM
Inviting constructive criticism, please dont post one line replies that hold no meaningful points.

So the question is, how do we picture Bitcoin as a decentralized revolution when a very high number of coins are hoarded by early adopters which results in quite the opposite. To me, the whole mining system looks like bull. Its like giving away lots of coins in first come first served basis. A currency shouldn't be given away like this, it will only lead to concentration of the wealth to a low percentage of people. This means that the original satoshi idea was flawed.

Its right that we are experiencing something completely different than traditional fiat and we cant predict how things are going to be, but i dont see bitcoin expanding beyond a - gambling, trading and speculative niche market.

if the mining system "looks like bull" you probably don't know enough about it. miners are always in competition with each other, and you can enter or exit the mining pool whenever you wish. not really first come, first served.

--arepo
132  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin down Litecoin UP 2014 on: March 18, 2014, 01:00:24 PM
Every single new coin outperforms bitcoin. They increase from nothing to something. That's an infinite increase.

but didn't Bitcoin do this, as well?
133  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2014, 12:38:44 PM
It's obvious that the better posters that were here have flocked somewhere else. Hard on the eyes these days.

having just started to post in this thread again with frequency, i take personal offense to that Tongue
134  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2014, 12:30:22 PM
Ok for the noobs here, Litecoin is the original alt,

LOL @ lying to the nubs to pump litecoin...
135  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prepare for March 16 Dip on: March 18, 2014, 12:29:10 PM

seems to me that the naysayers have put as much at stake on this thread as the OP. "no, it will never happen" and when it does.....

i can agree with you there.
136  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prepare for March 16 Dip on: March 18, 2014, 12:23:15 PM
Bitstamp just dipped to $591 from $640 (March 16 Peak)

Cosmo's friend called this when Bitcoin was about approx $660 i think, not too significant but this might be interesting and pretty accurate especially if it leads to lower prices towards the end of the week.

and very big volume too.

I think it was a bad idea to call such a narrow time frame. Bitcoin can sit on a $5 range for days for no good reason. Though It seemed so obvious to me that it would need to correct after it stalled so hopelessly at 640. Ya dont need to be autistic to see that.

it always seems obvious in hindsight...
137  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Weekly Newsletter Discussion and Analysis -- UPDATE on: March 18, 2014, 11:50:28 AM
I've enjoyed this week's newsletter even more than last week's. I find it specific, educational and well detailed, a perfect mix for someone who is interested not only in what the price movement will be, but also in learning and picking up qualitative information regarding technical analysis.

Thank you for your quality work arepo. Keep'em coming, I can't wait for it to be monday again Wink

i can't wait for Monday either! i'm having a lot of fun trying to create that perfect balance. Smiley

---

TUESDAY UPDATE:

so the expected move to the support at $605 (page 11) came pretty quick. i hope the newsletter helped everyone anticipate this fully, as it was outlined pretty precisely. we can still use the Money Flow Index to help us figure out where this movement will bottom out, but we've already reached the moving support in the diagram i supplied on page 8:

---
daily scale


http://i.imgur.com/Iooo70A.png

---

see why i like oscillators so much? the data predicted the price support at $605 quite well, indeed. however, the daily smoothing is preventing us from seeing the other moving supports in the oscillator data which can help us predict the lower price supports which may soon come into play. let's increase the grain:

---
12-hour scale


http://i.imgur.com/8KCbYI4.png

---

here we can see two candidates. in blue, we see a higher moving support that i believe is associated with the next price support down, mentioned on page 11. in black we see a low, barely ascending moving support which could be associated with the bottom-most price support that still maintains the mid-term bullish outlook -- $530.

so, there is a single statement which i must correct in the issue 17 March, having misidentified the moving support in the MFI daily data. on page 12, where i said "as long as we do not break under this support, the mid-term outlook remains bullish", i should be referring to the black support in the 12-hour figure above, NOT the support detailed on the MFI on page 8. we are already resting on that one today, and there is still a lot of room for healthy downwards consolidation that does not preclude a bullish trend reversal.

--arepo

p.s. also, just a tip, if you're using the Bitstamp orderbook, it appears as though someone may be front-running similar price targets to the ones i presented. the bid side is stacked at $580 and $550, a little bit above the two supports i outlined in the report. be sure to take these orders into account if they do not move by the time these price levels come into play.
138  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2014, 11:12:04 AM
Everyone keeps talking about this "trend line" (im guilty of it too), but what if our trendlines are actually wrong. <snip>
We all think the blue/green is the real trendline but then it ends up actually being the purple one after a devastating correction (a REAL bear market) is revealed.

Why are you using Mt Gox dip down to 1xx's to formulate your trendline?

Barring a change in the US regulatory framework I think we will grind sideways with moments of volatility before slowly making our way back towards the ATH, at which point all hell will break loose.

I'm not. The mtgox dip is a coincidence. The purple line is actually formed by connecting a bunch of contact points in 2011-2012.

Make the purple line have a similar start date as your other two lines, then see how the slope looks...I don't see why you arbitrarily picked a different date for it, unless I'm missing something.
I chose it only because it has a lot of contact points.

haha stop with your objective TA! it's scaring the bulls Tongue

you make a decent point, TERA, but most of these formulations are working (whether consciously or not) with the other magic assumption that BTC prices never return to less than the previous ATH after a new ATH, a paradigm which similarly can be violated at any future point but which has held up so far...
139  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2014, 11:05:36 AM

So, if loss of bid depth on both sides is dramatically measurable, that likely translates to a short-term loss of interest in BTC and likely downward trends....

I say it means hoarding has really begun.

a WILD CONJECTURE has appeared! Tongue

pretty sure it was just traders shifting the position of their orders in response to the first significant price action in almost a week. i forgot how far you guys in this thread will extrapolate and exaggerate any innocent data...


I would NOT describe a $5 to $10 downward trickling movement as a "significant price action."

then you have something to learn about price movement. not only is a $15 movement in a 6-hour period the largest range we have seen in about a week, the volume associated with the movement is the largest we've seen in that same time frame. this makes it significant in magnitude if only in comparison to the watching-paint-dry-caliber price behavior this past week. it is also significant in that it may herald a steady increase in volatility from here on out after that painfully quiet consolidation.


Looks like you are turning out to be correct; however, at the time that I wrote, the movement was only in its budding stages.  Also, I do NOT claim to be any expert, so I remain curious why you felt it necessary to engage in patronizing... Anyhow, thanks for the fairly detailed response...

apologies for the patronizing tone. i was just correcting an error in judgment where i saw one. i tend to be more pedantic than is socially acceptable sometimes, but you'll always get detailed explanations that way  Cool

That was nice dump.  Shocked

caught me by complete surprise, i didn't think the first small move down to $620 was significant at all Tongue

Did you put your money where your mouth is?

sure did Wink i hope my subscribers did too; the newsletter i issued just yesterday morning called for a bounce off of the support at $605.
140  Economy / Speculation / Re: Just moved half of my funds off Bitstamp back into nice safe and warm Bank Konto on: March 18, 2014, 05:37:53 AM
Why are you still holding feathercoins? That were Pumped and dumped long time ago.

in order for pump&dumps to work, there've got to be bagholders Wink
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